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A Fast Growing Property Developer, Initiate with "Buy"

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A Fast Growing Property Developer, Initiate with 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: Ronshine China (03301 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity Research 公司报告： 融信中国 (03301 HK) [email protected] 2 August 2018 A[Table_summary] Fast Growing Property Developer, Initiate with "Buy" 一家快速增长的地产开发商，首予“买入” 公 Steady fundamentals for the property sector will remain. In 2018, we Rating:[Table_Rank] Buy 司 conservatively estimate that the YoY growth range of commodity housing Initial sales amount and GFA should be between -5% and 0%, and -10% and -5%, 报 respectively. We also expect stable ASP, decreasing saleable areas and 评级： 买入 (首次覆盖) 告 steady investment. Company Report Ronshine China Holdings Limited ("Ronshine China") is a fast growing 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$16.55 property developer. Contracted sales is expected to extend fast growth and reach over RMB120.0 bn in 2018. Abundant land bank in high-tier cities and Share price 股价: HK$9.000 strong M&A capacity will support the Company's scale expansion. Riding on proper unit land costs, gross margin will rebound to over 22.5% during 告 2018-2020. The shares placement and senior notes issuance hint a steady Stock performance 证 financing channel. Despite the Company's high leverage ratio, we expect 股价表现 报 limited solvency risks because of strong contracted sales growth and steady 券 [Table_QuotePic] 究 financing channels. 研 研 We estimate the Company’s total revenue in 2018-2020 to be RMB58,741 究 mn, RMB81,154 mn and RMB98,033 mn, respectively. Underlying net profit 券 in 2018-2020 is expected to reach RMB3,476 mn, RMB4,976 mn and 报 RMB6,086 mn, representing a CAGR of 67.0% in 2017-2020. 告 证 Equity Research Report We set the Company's target price at HK$16.55, which implies a 45% discount to its 2018F NAV of HK$30.09 per share, 6.2x underlying 2018 PER and 1.5x 2018 PBR. Initiate with "Buy" rating for Ronshine China. Risk factors: 1) property sales missing expectations and 2) solvency risks. [Tab le_I 房地产行业稳定的基本面将维持。在 2018 年，我们保守预计商品房销售额和销售面积的 nfo1 同比增长区间为-5%- 0%和-10%- -5%。我们也预计稳定的房价，减少的待售面积和稳健 的投资。 ] Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 房 融信中国控股有限公司（“融信中国”）是一家快速增长的地产开发商。合约销售将延续 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 地 快速增长并预计在 年达到人民币 亿元以上。在高线城市充足的土储以及强健 Abs. % 2018 1,200 绝对变动 % (11.4) (26.0) 5.9 产 的并购能力将支持公司的规模扩张。基于合适的单位土地成本，毛利率将在 2018-2020 年 Rel. % to HS Index 相对恒指变动 % (7.1) (16.2) 5.5 行 反弹至 22.5%以上。股票配售和优先票据的发行显示了稳定的融资渠道。尽管公司的净资 Avg. Share price(HK$) 业 产负债率高，由于强劲的合约销售增长和稳定的融资渠道，我们预计有限的偿付风险。 平均股价（港元） 9.6 10.7 10.2 Property Sector Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 我们估计 2018-2020 年的收入分别为人民币 587.41 亿元，人民币 811.54 亿元和人民币 980.33 亿元。2018-2020 年核心净利为人民币 34.76 亿元，人民币 49.76 亿元和人民币 60.86 亿元，相当于 2017-2020 年有 67.0%的年复合增长率。 我们给予公司目标价 16.55 港元，较 2018 年每股净资产估值 30.09 港元有 45%的折让， 相当于 6.2 倍 2018 年核心市盈率以及 1.5 倍 2018 年市净率。首予融信中国“买入”评级。 风险因素：1）低于预期的物业销售；2）偿付风险。 [Tab Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE le_I 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) nfo2 2016A 11,372 1,292 0.964 (31.9) 8.4 5.571 1.4 0.000 0.0 22.0 ] 2017A 30,341 1,680 1.223 26.9 6.0 7.442 1.0 0.000 0.0 19.0 融 2018F 58,741 3,778 2.363 93.2 3.3 8.845 0.9 0.473 6.1 31.0 2019F 81,154 5,312 3.324 40.7 2.3 11.504 0.7 0.665 8.6 32.7 信 2020F 98,033 6,478 4.053 21.9 1.9 14.746 0.5 0.811 10.5 30.9 中 总股数 大股东 国 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) (m) 1,598.3 Major shareholder Ou Zonghong 63.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 14,384.7 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 36.6 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 6,038.1 FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 净负债/股东资金 (%) 127.3 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 14.640 / 8.000 FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值（港元） 30.1 Ronshine HK) (03301 China Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 20 [Table_PageHeader]Ronshine China (03301 HK) ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Contents INDUSTRY ................................................................................................................................ 3 Policy and Monetary Environment .................................................................................. 3 Sector Fundamentals ...................................................................................................... 5 August2 2018 Sector Characteristics ..................................................................................................... 8 COMPANY OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................ 9 Company Profile .............................................................................................................. 9 Contracted Sales ............................................................................................................. 9 Land Bank ...................................................................................................................... 10 Financing Capacity ......................................................................................................... 11 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 12 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Revenue Analysis .......................................................................................................... 12 Gross Profit Analysis ..................................................................................................... 13 Operating Expenses Analysis ....................................................................................... 13 Operating Profit Analysis ............................................................................................... 14 Finance Costs ................................................................................................................ 14 Income Tax .................................................................................................................... 14 Net Profit Analysis ......................................................................................................... 15 ROA and ROE ............................................................................................................... 15 (03301 HK) Net Gearing ................................................................................................................... 16 Cash Flow Analysis ....................................................................................................... 16 融信中国 VALUATION ............................................................................................................................ 17 Ronshine China Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 20 [Table_PageHeader]Ronshine China (03301 HK) INDUSTRY ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Policy and Monetary Environment The tightening and targeted policy environment will be maintained but policy should be moderately loose if the macro economy starts to deteriorate due to the Sino-US trade war. In Jun. 2018, shantytown redevelopment project approvals have been tightened by China Development Bank. Looking forward, ASP has become stable, stock levels stayed at a proper level and the land auction premium rate cooled down. Thus, there should be no trigger for policy changes. However, we think targeted August2 2018 policies should be maintained to promote the steady and sound development of the property sector. Alongside the hot market in some lower-tier cities, we expect tightening policies to extend to lower-tier cities but policies in higher-tier cities will be maintained. Table 1: Cities Experiencing Tightening Policies Region Province City Shanghai Shanghai Yangtze River Delta Jiangsu Yangzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi, Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Xuzhou and Nantong Zhejiang Hangzhou, Jiaxing, and Ningbo Guangdong Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai,] Huizhou2 r a andM t Jiangmenh g i R _ e l b a T [ Guangxi Nanning Pearl River Delta Fujian Pingtan, Minhou, Fuzhou, Quanzhou and Xiamen Hainan All Cities in Hainan Province Beijing Beijing Jing-Jin-Ji Tianjin Tianjin Hebei Cangzhou, Zhangjiakou, Langfang, Qinghuangdao, Tangshan, bazhou and baoding Shandong Shandong Jinan and Qingdao Shanxi Shanxi Taiyuan Henan Zhengzhou Hunan Changsha Central (03301 HK) Hubei Wuhan Anhui Hefei and Chuzhou Chongqing Chongqing 融信中国 Sichuan Chengdu Western Gansu Lanzhou Shanxi Xian Source: China Real Estate Information Corp., Guotai Junan International. Ronshine China Figure 1: ASP of 70 Cities Figure 2: Inventory Turnover by City Tier in China 30.00 12.0% 10.0% 25.00 8.0% 6.0% 20.00 4.0% 2.0% 15.00 12.1 0.0% 10.00 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15 18 17 -2.0% 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9.6 -4.0% 8.5 Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov May May May May May May May May 5.00 -6.0% -8.0% 0.00 ASP YoY of Newly Construction Houses 10 10 12 14 15 16 17 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 11 13 15 17 10 12 14 16 18 10 12 14 16 18 11 13 15 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASP Mom of Newly Construction Houses - Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov May May May May May May May May May ASP YoY of Second Houses ASP MoM of Second Houses Tier-1 avg. Inventory Turnover (mths) Tier-2 avg. Inventory Turnover (mths) Tier-3 avg. Inventory Turnover (mths) Report Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Wind, Guotai Junan Source: China Real Estate Information Corp.,
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