Statistics of Jews (1914-1915)
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STATISTICS OF JEWS 339 B. JEWISH POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES MEMOIR OF THE BUREAU OF JEWISH STATISTICS OF THE AMERICAN JEWISH COMMITTEE By JOSEPH JACOBS, LITT. D. I. INTRODUCTION Owing to the rigid separation of Church and State in the United States, no attempt has been made in the census investigations to determine the distribution of population according to religion. However one may regret this as a statistician, one has to acquiesce as a good citizen. But, as a consequence, any attempts to ascertain the number of Jews, or of any other religious denomination, in the United States must take the form of estimates, which are noto- riously untrustworthy, and as a rule overshoot the mark, because few persons are aware how large a few hundreds of human beings bulk in the real or imaginative eye. Yet, inadequate as such estimates usually prove to be, they are obviously better than nothing, or than the mere guesswork that often shoots wildly in such cases. Accordingly, various estimates of the Jewish population of the United States have been made during the past century, which, for various reasons, it is worth while enumer- ating : Year Authority Number 1818 Mordecai M. Noah 3,000 1824 Solomon Etting 6,000 1826 Isaac C. Harby 6,000 1840 The American Almanac 15,000 1848 M. A. Berk 50,000 1877 Wm. B. Hackenburg 230,257 1888 Isaac Markens 400,000 1897 David Sulzberger 937,800 1905 Joseph Jacobs in Jew. Encycl. (xii, 370-378) 1,508,435 1907 Miss Szold in American Jewish Year Book 1,777,185 1910 American Jewish Year Book 2,043,762 Of these estimates the one made by Mr. W. B. Hackenburg in 1877 and published in 1880 is of special interest, as it was founded in a large measure on actual counts made in the smaller com- munities and careful estimates made in the larger ones. The estimates made by the Jewish Encyclopedia in 1905 and the AMERICAN JEWISH YEAR BOOK in 1907 (both conducted largely by Miss Henrietta Szold) were based on similar investigations. 340 AMERICAN JEWISH YEAR BOOK The figure given in the YEAE BOOK for 1910 was based on estimates furnished by the Industrial Removal Office for fifty cities, with Jewish population for the years 1907 and 1910, and it was assumed that the percentage increase observed in these cases would apply to the whole Jewish population as estimated in 1907. This, as indi- cated above, would bring the Jewish population of the United States in the last census year of 1910 up to 2,043,762, which is the latest figure before us. For many reasons it is desirable to attempt a new estimate, based on a careful scrutiny of the various lines of investigation that bear upon the subject, some of which have been opened up only recently. For the number of a population is the fundamental figure on which all statistical inquiry and discussion must be based, and without some close approximation to it, it is impos. sible to decide such questions as the number of Jewish children of school age, the comparative rate at which Jews are becoming naturalized, their tendency to remain in this country, the number of defectives, dependents, and delinquents that may be found among them, how many of them are native-born, and what pro- portion have emigrated from the different European and Asiatic countries. As will be seen in the course of this memoir, close approximation to definite answers to some of these and other questions are by no means beyond the power of statistical inquiry, if once we have obtained the figure for the total population. In order to obtain this, it is desirable to conduct the inquiry on as many divergent lines as possible, so that the figure to which they all converge may be reasonably supposed to vary but little from the truth. These lines are, first, the number of Jewish immigrants, which have more or less been counted for the past thirty-five years. We know, besides, for the past fifteen years what proportion of those coming from the different Euro- pean countries are of Jewish race and faith, and therefore the proportion of the " foreign white stock" resident in this country and recorded by the census of 1910 that is likely to be of Jewish origin. In addition to these lines of inquiry, the census of 1910 gave rather full details of the " mother tongues " of the " foreign white stock," including Yiddish, which is spoken by a large number of the Jews who have migrated to this country. Finally, the Industrial Removal Office, for its own purposes, at- tempts to estimate the number of Jews in the various cities to which it is thinking of forwarding immigrants, and this estimate can be made the basis of a fourth attempt to ascertain our basic figure.1 It will be found that the four different lines of inquiry 'Mr. David M. Bresaler, General Manager of the Industrial Removal Office, has been good enough to place at the disposal of the Bureau the material he possesses on the subject. STATISTICS OF JEWS 341 converge about the figure two and a third millions for the census year 1910, and with that as a starting point it is fairly easy to cal- culate the Jewish population of the United States on July 1, 1914, as 2,933,374. II. ESTIMATE FROM IMMIGRATION From the beginning of the New Exodus from Russia, in 1881, count has been taken of the number of Jews arriving in this country, third class, on immigrant ships. With the requisite corrections of the figures thus obtained, due to the incomplete- ness of the earlier records, 1881-1899, as shown by the discrepancy between the Government returns and those given for three (or four) principal ports between 1900 and 1910, the gross Jewish immigration from 1881 to 1910 can be estimated at 1,696,405. A certain number of these have been deported by the immigration authorities, others have departed of their own accord, and a few of these return to the United States, and should therefore not be counted in as immigrants. During the last fifteen years or so, these classes amount on the average to 9 per cent of the total number of immigrants (as against something like 30 per cent among the general immigration), but in the preceding twenty years it was probable that the percentage was rather less, say 7 per cent. Applying these percentages to the total immigration, we get the figure 1,556,936 as the net immigration between 1881 and 1910. It is probable that to this net result another 16,000 should be added for the Jewish immigrants that came through Canada, especially in the twenty years 1881-1899, and are rarely noted, and for those who arrive first and second class, who until recently at least were not included at all in the returns. We then have, as the final figure for the net Jewish immigration up to 1910, 1,572,936. But there were Jews in the United States long before the New Exodus, and they should of course be added in attempting to get the total number in this country in the year just mentioned. As before remarked, these numbers were arrived at by Mr. W. B. Hackenburg in an inquiry carried on in the year 1877 (though only published in 1880), which resulted in the figure 230,257. With the natural increase this may be estimated at 251,000 in 1881, when the great inrush by immigration began, and may be regarded as the " original quarter of a million," by which term we shall henceforth designate it. But both this original quarter of a milion and the net immi- gration added to it in the thirty years 1881-1910 have increased naturally by the usual excess of births over deaths, and in order 342 AMERICAN JEWISH YEAR BOOK to ascertain the full Jewish population in 1910, an attempt must be made to calculate this natural increase. Roughly speaking, populations of a type that has so large a proportion of " viable " lives * and of marriageable men and women who are not addicted to race-suicide, would have a death rate ranging around 15 per thousand, a marriage rate of 10 per thousand, and a birth rate of 35. Subtracting the death rate from the birth rate would result in an addition of 20 per thousand, or 2 per cent per annum. But, when carried over a large number of years, this additional 2 per cent increases in geometrical progression at compound interest. In other words our population between 1881 and 1910 has to be multiplied by 1.02 raised to the 29th power, or 1.776. Thus, to our two basic figures of the original quarter of a million and the net immigration should be added .776 of their average during thirty years in order to arrive at the natural increase. How shall we determine this average? At the beginning the population was one quarter of a million, which would give a result too small. In 1910, without allowing for increase, it would be 1,823,936 2; this would give a result too high. To take the arithmetical average, or half the sum, of these two figures (or 1,037,468) would also probably be too high, as the average immi- gration for the latter years has been much higher than in the earlier stages. Statisticians in such cases use the mean pro- portional, or geometrical mean, between the two figures, taking the square root of the product, instead of half the sum, as the average.