Inland Empire Industrial Market Amazon Expands; Infill Market Analysis

RESEARCH 2Q 2019 INLAND EMPIRE INDUSTRIAL MARKET AMAZON EXPANDS; INFILL MARKET ANALYSIS

DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING Asking Rent and Vacancy • Absorption achieved parity with construction deliveries this quarter, keeping vacancy unchanged from three months ago. $0.70 15.0% $0.60 12.0% • Notable move-ins were Steelcase (611,573 square feet in Rancho $0.50 9.0% Cucamonga), Capitol Logistics (503,735 square feet in Riverside) and Radial Transportation (475,555 square feet in Perris). $0.40 6.0% $0.30 3.0% • Big Lots will vacate 1.2 million square feet in the West Inland Empire next quarter in a relocation move to the High Desert. Kimberly- $0.20 0.0% 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 Clark’s recent pre-lease and eventual occupancy of 1.1 million square feet in Ontario will help offset vacancy. Average Asking Rent (Price/SF) Vacancy (%)

• Many retailers front-loaded imports in late 2018 to avoid the Net Absorption (SF, Millions) negative impact of U.S. tariff charges on $250 billion worth of 12 Chinese goods, which went into effect in early May 2019. The summer months, which are when retailers stock up for the holiday 9

season, will be very interesting as it relates to port volume. 6 th • Market wide vacancy remained under 5.0% for the 25 consecutive 3 quarter, while rent hit another high. 0 • New construction leasing continues to drive absorption activity: -3 90.0% of this quarter’s absorption gains came from facilities built 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 from 2017 onward. Construction and Deliveries (SF, Millions) AMAZON: STILL GROWING… 35 Amazon will occupy 2.4 million square feet across two fulfillment 28 centers in Fontana and Beaumont next quarter. The company is the 21 Inland Empire’s largest employer with 18,000 jobs (a conservative 14 estimate) and will soon operate 15 centers in excess of 500,000 square 7 feet. Amazon also has smaller delivery centers and partnerships with 0 third-party logistics providers. 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 More leasing is on the horizon for Amazon, as the company builds out Under Construction Deliveries its own transportation network in order to reduce its reliance on UPS MARKET SUMMARY and FedEx and thereby minimize its shipping costs. Maintaining its own Current Prior Year Ago 12 Month fleet of trucks is only the first step; air cargo operations is the next. Quarter Quarter Period Forecast

Amazon is establishing operations at smaller airports across the Total Inventory 600 MSF 593 MSF 577 MSF é country to develop connectivity between its future Air Hub Sortation Vacancy Rate 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% éê Center in Hebron, Kentucky, and major cities where the company has Quarterly Net Absorption 5.6 MSF 4.1 MSF 8.8 MSF éê fulfillment centers. Locally, Amazon plans to open a 658,000-square- é foot air cargo facility at the former Norton Air Force Base, with 16 daily Average Asking Rent $0.65 $0.64 $0.60 flights. The company already has operations at March Air Reserve Base Under Construction 29.4 MSF 26.8 MSF 18.9 MSF éê and is running flights through Ontario International Airport. Plans also Deliveries 5.7 MSF 1.3 MSF 8.2 MSF é call for another air hub at the Rialto Municipal Airport.

U.S. ecommerce spending is projected to grow 7.0% annually from work through entitlements before redeveloping. Although Duke’s exact 2019 to 2023, meaning additional leases from Amazon and its plans are unknown, an 8.0-acre site can accommodate a 170,000- competitors are to be expected. square-foot warehouse with a 50.0% floor area ratio–plenty of room for a nice truck court. INFILL DEVELOPMENT COMING TO WEST I.E. Vacancy in the western half of the basin has remained under 3.0% for OUTLOOK 4.5 consecutive years, rent is at a new high, industrial land costs have Peak pricing abounds amid near-record-low vacancy and fierce doubled since 2007, and land parcels are dwindling. This makes a competition for new supply. This is compounded by extremely tight strong case for infill development, which started four years ago and vacancy in Los Angeles (1.1%), making the Inland Empire the last stop will continue, given recent site acquisitions from Duke Realty, Oakmont, in Southern California for companies looking to establish distribution Penwood Real Estate Investment Management and Prologis. This centers within reasonable proximity to the nation’s busiest port system, quarter, for instance, Duke Realty acquired a 69,000-square-foot where 40.0% of imports from Asia enter the United States. 2019 is manufacturing building in Fontana that is on an 8.0-acre site. The seller shaping up to be another good year for the market. will lease back the site for roughly two years, giving Duke the time to

YTD IMPORT VOLUME PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Loaded Inbound Cargo (TEUs, Thousands) Total Nonfarm Unemployment Rate, Not Seasonally Adjusted

3,500 15%

12% 3,300

9% 3,100 6% 2,900 3%

2,700 0% May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario

Source: Port of Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Preliminary Data)

LEASE TRANSACTIONS

Tenant Building City Type Square Feet

XPO Logistics Supply Chain, Inc. 3520 S Cactus Ave Rialto Pre-lease 1,264,102 Kimberly-Clark 4815 Hellman Ave Ontario Pre-lease 1,180,908 DMSI 17350 Perris Blvd Moreno Valley New Lease 1,109,378 Burlington Coat Factory 27582 Pioneer Ave Redlands Renewal 800,444 SharkNinja Operating LLC 16300 Fern Ave Chino Renewal 779,052

SALE TRANSACTION SALE TRANSACTIONS

Buyer Building(s) City Sale Price Price/SF Square Feet

Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Sierra Pacific Center Fontana $213,500,500 $143 1,498,058 Exeter Property Group 6227 Cajon Blvd San Bernardino $97,750,000 $121 806,322 Sares-Regis Group 3100 Milliken Ave Mira Loma $87,500,000 $115 759,260 Exeter Property Group 42500 Winchester Rd Temecula $54,650,000 $89 615,050 KKR 9052 Merrill Ave Moreno Valley $47,562,500 $109 436,350

SUBMARKET STATISTICS`

Total Under Total Qtr YTD Wh/Dist General Ind Total Inventory Construction Vacancy Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF)

East I.E. 219,246,799 15,991,715 6.0% 3,165,824 6,208,626 $0.58 $0.72 $0.60

High Desert 12,804,066 1,380,000 4.4% -1,645 604,275 - $0.50 $0.50

South I.E. 17,856,970 124,324 1.8% 32,421 -9,777 $0.69 $0.65 $0.66

West I.E. 349,667,941 11,905,417 2.0% 2,374,614 2,836,394 $0.68 $0.80 $0.68

Inland Empire 599,575,776 29,401,456 3.5% 5,571,214 9,639,518 $0.64 $0.69 $0.65

SUBMARKET BREAKDOWNS

Cities

Banning, Beaumont, Bloomington, Calimesa, Colton, Glen Avon, Grand Terrace, Highland, Loma Linda, Mentone, Moreno Valley, East I.E. Perris, Rialto, Redlands, Riverside, Rubidoux, San Bernardino, Yucaipa

Adelanto, Apple Valley, Barstow, Desert Knolls, Helendale, Hesperia, Lancaster, Lenwood, Lucerne Valley, Phelan, Silver Lakes, High Desert Victorville

South I.E. Hemet, Lake Elsinore, Menifee, Murrieta, San Jacinto, Sun City, Temecula, Wildomar

West I.E. Chino, Chino Hills, Corona, Eastvale, Fontana, Jurupa Valley, Mira Loma, Montclair, Norco, Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, Upland

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DAIN FEDORA CLAUDIA MORALES Director of Research Senior Database Coordinator 213.596.2245 909.605.1100 [email protected] [email protected]

Newmark Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Knight Frank Research Reports are available at www.ngkf.com/research

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