Notes on Recent Elections / Electoral Studies 31 (2012) 613–639 621 Trybuna1 Konstytucyjny Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej, 2011. Komunikat Wilczak, D., 2010. ‘PiS to sekta i ruch wywrotowy’. Norman Davies dla prasowy po og1oszeniu wyroku dotycza˛cego Kodeksu wyborczego. Newsweeka. Newsweek Polska. http://www.newsweek.pl/drukuj/ http://www.trybunal.gov.pl/Rozprawy/2011/k_09_11.htm (accessed 62831 (accessed 2.12.11.). 11.12.11.). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.05.006 The 2011 general elections in Peruq Noam Lupu* Center for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences, Juan March Institute, Castelló 77, 28006 Madrid, Spain article info Article history: Received 15 September 2011 Accepted 14 March 2012 1. Background 2. Candidates and parties Peruvians went to the polls on 10 April 2011 to select The combination of García’s unpopularity and internal a new president and a new slate of legislators.1 Peru’s party disputes meant that his own party, the American president serves a five-year term and is prohibited from Popular Revolutionary Alliance (Alianza Popular Revolu- consecutive re-election, so the incumbent Alan García was cionaria Americana, APRA),3 failed to offer a successor ineligible to compete. In case no candidate garnered candidate. Mercedes Aráoz Fernández, García’s Minister of a plurality of the votes in the first round of balloting, Economy and Finance, was nominated by the party in a runoff was scheduled for 5 June. November, but she withdrew her candidacy less than two Peru’s 130-member unicameral Congress is renewed in months later. More generally, the Peruvian party system its entirety every five years, concurrent with the first has long been unstable – Mainwaring and Scully (1995) round of the presidential contest. Members are elected classified it as “inchoate”–with new parties emerging from each of the country’s 25 departments,2 with seats regularly as electoral vehicles for individual politicians. So allocated by population and ranging from one seat in it is no surprise that five candidates, with the backing of Madre de Dios (pop. 92,000) to 36 in Lima (pop. 7.6 m). a variety of parties and cross-party alliances, were The congressional seats are assigned to parties by competitive in this contest. Altogether, ten candidates proportional representation using the D’Hondt formula competed for the presidency and 13 parties presented and a 5% threshold. An alternative to the 5% nationwide congressional lists.4 threshold is that a party must win 5% of the congressional Three candidates competed for the mantle of continuity delegation of at least two departments. Voters can use with the major policies of the García administration. The preferential votes to determine the order of candidates most prominent of these was Alejandro Toledo, who within each party list. preceded García in the presidency and whose moderate economic policies García had largely left in place. Backed by his Possible Peru (Perú Posible) party, Toledo staked out a centrist position. Despite his lead in the early days of the q Editor’s Note: Due to an administrative error, two notes were campaign, he was heavily criticized for his allegedly lavish commissioned on the recent Peruvian elections. In order to be fair to both lifestyle and accused of abusing alcohol and cocaine. Still, authors and to recognize the time they spent on this work, we publish as the first person of indigenous descent to be elected both in this issue. Apologies to Professors Lupu and Schmidt for the duplication. Hopefully, readers can benefit from having alternative perspectives on this eventful contest. * Tel.: þ34 91 435 4240x201; fax: þ34 91 431 5135. E-mail address: [email protected]. 3 APRA considers itself a regional movement, so its official party name 1 Also elected were Peru’s five delegates to the Andean Parliament. is the Peruvian Aprist Party (Partido Aprista Peruano). 2 Peru is split into 24 departments, but for electoral purposes the 4 An eleventh minor candidate withdrew just weeks before the elec- Province of Callao also has department status. tion, but remained on the ballot. 622 Notes on Recent Elections / Electoral Studies 31 (2012) 613–639 president in Peru, he continued to appeal to some rural Surrounded by her father’s advisors, she was widely poor voters. expected to follow his mix of pro-business policies, broad Leaning in a more centre-right direction was Pedro- social programmes, and hardline anti-crime strategies. And Pablo Kuczynski, a former official of the International she seemed to attract many of his supporters, including Monetary Fund and World Bank, as well as Toledo’s business and media elites as well as the rural poor. Reports Minister of Economy and Finance and then Prime Minister.5 even emerged during the campaign that the Peruvian Kuczynski and his newly-minted Alliance for Great Change intelligence services were supporting Fujimori’s (Alianza por el Gran Cambio) emphasized maintaining campaign.8 macroeconomic policies but promised to fight corruption, to legalize the country’s large informal sector, and to 3. Issues double spending on education. The Alliance brought together four centrist and centre-right parties, including Under both the Toledo and García administrations, the the Popular Christian Party (Partido Popular Cristiano)of Peruvian economy had improved steadily. Between 2001 Lourdes Flores, a prominent presidential contender in and 2011, GDP grew on average 5% annually, despite the 2006. Kuczynski appealed mostly to urban middle-class global recession. Poverty rates fell considerably and voters, seen by poor Peruvians as a political insider and employment increased particularly in the exporting a rich gringo (he holds an American passport). regions along the Pacific coast. These improvements were The third centrist candidate was Luis Castañeda, due in part to the boom in prices for Peru’s abundant a popular former mayor of Lima initially considered the mineral commodities: gold, silver, and copper. But they campaign favourite, backed by the National Solidarity were also the result of government policies that maintained Alliance (Alianza Solidaridad Nacional). The Alliance price stability and attracted investment and trade. included his own National Solidarity party as well as the Still, the distribution of these economic gains was far centrist remainders of the parties that had backed the from equal. Access to basic public services was uneven and leftist Ollanta Humala in 2006 and former president unemployment rates remained persistently high in the Alberto Fujimori in 1990. Castañeda’s platform differed southern and central highlands. Many poor voters were little from those of Toledo and Kuczynski, and his lack of therefore unsatisfied with the status quo and looking for an charisma and lacklustre campaign limited his appeal to alternative, more redistributive economic model. While the Lima and its environs. three moderate candidates – Toledo, Kuczynski, and Cas- The anti-incumbent candidates were those seen to tañeda – promised some expanded social policies, Humala be ideologically more radical. On the left was Humala, and Fujimori clearly represented more dramatic deviations a former army officer who had lost the 2006 runoff election from existing policies. to García by a razor-thin margin. Humala, now backed by A related concern was the prevalence of social conflict. his Peru Wins (Gana Perú) party, moderated many of his Conflicts had been arising frequently in the poorer high- 2006 stances, comparing himself with Brazil’s moderate lands, where mining companies and police clashed with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva instead of Venezuela’s fiery Hugo local, often indigenous, communities over environmental Chávez (Schmidt, 2007). He even replaced the red shirts he and economic issues. During García’s administration, had worn in the earlier campaign with a suit and tie. But these conflicts reportedly led to over 190 deaths. Humala while he diligently vowed to continue existing macroeco- proposed to fight these conflicts by involving local nomic policies, he stressed the need for broader social communities and labour unions in decision-making over policies in his “letter to the Peruvian people.”6 He promised resource extraction. The three centrist candidates, mean- to raise the minimum wage, impose a windfall tax on while, offered shades of continuity with García’s strategy mining companies, and provide pensions for the elderly. of sending police and the military to break up conflicts. On the opposite end of the spectrum was Keiko Fuji- The most hardline position came from Fujimori, who mori, a member of Congress and the daughter of impris- recalled her father’s success in forcefully quelling rural oned former president Alberto Fujimori,7 backed by her insurgencies. party, Force 2011 (Fuerza 2011). Her campaign repeatedly referenced the more popular aspects of her father’s tenure, 4. Results including his successful fight against insurgent groups and his massive redistributive programmes. Naturally, she Turnout for the April election was about the same as in made little reference to his authoritarian impulses and his the 2001 and 2006 electoral cycles, at 83.7%. With five administration’s rampant corruption, though she previ- competitive candidates, there was little doubt that the ously suggested that she would consider pardoning his presidential contest would require a runoff. As the first conviction for corruption and human-rights abuses. round approached, polls showed Kuczynski, Humala, and Fujimori ahead of the rest. In the event, Humala and Fujimori took the top shares of the vote and prepared to 5 The Prime Minister in Peru is the head of the cabinet, appointed by compete in the runoff (Table 1). The three main centrist the president and approved by Congress. candidates combined garnered nearly 44% of the vote, 6 The letter was apparently based on a similar move by Lula in his first primarily from voters in and around the capital city. But successful presidential campaign in 2002. Indeed, Humala hired some of Lula’s campaign advisors.