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Jokowi's Election Victory Terence Chong 38 News from Southeast Asia Regional Editor The Region Jokowi's election victory Terence Chong Jokowi’s election victory https://www.iseas.edu.sg Prospects and challenges As predicted by many polls, Joko Widodo (Jokowi) won the April 2019 presidential election, allowing him to serve the country for another five years. The 2019 election was a replay of the 2014 election where Jokowi defeated former military general Prabowo Subianto. In the 2019 election, Jokowi’s margin of victory improved by a meagre 4.7 per cent despite the developmental policies introduced during his first term. What can Indonesians expect from Jokowi’s second term? Will he be more aggressive in pushing for economic reforms and how will he handle greater political polarisation in the country? he ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Indo- of conservative cleric Ma’ruf Amin as vice- nesian Studies Programme presents president has raised questions as to what Tthe following three articles to highlight this would mean to pluralist and moderate the challenges confronting the president. On voices in the country. Lastly, how will the the economic front, though Jokowi promised Jokowi government manage the increased to improve Indonesia’s business environment polarisation of Indonesian society? The through deregulation and eradication of election results show that while Jokowi corrupt practices, the country’s decentralised remains popular in Java, he lost significant law-making process has slowed down his support in Aceh and West Sumatra. Uniting efforts. On the religious front, his choice the nation will be Jokowi’s biggest challenge. Above: A voting bulletin. Image reproduced under a Creative Commons license on Wikimedia. The 2019 Indonesian elections. Between the opinion polls and the polling booth. Hui Yew-Foong n 17 April 2019, 158 million Indonesian voters went to the polls to elect Otheir president and vice president, as well as four different levels of legislative representatives. This proved to be one of the most challenging elections in Indonesian history, as it was the first time that Indonesia held the presidential and legislative elections simultaneously. As expected, the presidential election overshadowed the legislative Above: Lists of candidates for Indonesia's 17 April 2019 elections. Image reproduced under a Creative Commons license on Wikimedia. elections. The 2019 presidential election was seen he was anti-ulama (Islamic scholar) and not the Jakarta elite as a populist reformer, and International Studies (CSIS), Charta as a replay of the 2014 presidential election religious enough. On the other hand, Prabowo Jokowi had to justify his re-election in 2019 Politika, Indo Barometer and Lingkaran because the same presidential candidates, picked Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (hereafter with his track record. Survei Indonesia (LSI) Denny JA, all pointed namely, Joko Widodo (popularly known as Sandiaga), former deputy governor of Jakarta. After the nominations for presidential to a comfortable win of 18-20 per cent for Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto (hereafter As one of Indonesia’s most successful young candidates were formally announced on the Jokowi-Ma’ruf pair. Prabowo), were facing off against each entrepreneurs, the then 49-year-old Sandiaga 10 August 2018, no less than 39 surveys The surveys also suggested a ‘coattail other again. What was different were the was seen as having strong appeal to the conducted by 20 different institutions were effect’ on the electability of political parties. vice-presidential candidates. Under pressure 42 million millennial voters and someone who conducted to find out how the electorate would The parties of the presidential candidates, from his coalition, Jokowi had selected the could speak authoritatively on the economy. vote. Most of the more reliable surveys found the Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle 76-year-old conservative Muslim cleric Ma’ruf Another difference between the 2014 and Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s support rate to be between (PDI-P) and the Great Indonesia Movement Amin (hereafter Ma’ruf), who was chairman 2019 elections was the fact that Jokowi ran in 50 and 60 per cent, while Prabowo-Sandiga's Party (Gerindra), were expected to benefit of the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI) and 2019 as the incumbent and part of the political support rate tended to range from 30 to 40 per from the popularity of the presidential former supreme leader of the Nahdlatul establishment, with a coalition of 10 political cent, thus giving Jokowi-Ma’ruf a lead of about candidates and lead the pack. The Golkar Ulama (NU), the largest Islamic organization parties behind him while Prabowo had only 20 per cent.1 Opinion polls conducted about a Party, National Awakening Party (PKB), in Indonesia. This was seen as a tactical five parties supporting him. Whereas in 2014 month before the election by most reputable Democratic Party (PD), Prosperous Justice move by Jokowi to combat the image that he was a commoner and an outlier challenging pollsters, such as the Center for Strategic Party (PKS), National Democratic Party The Newsletter No. 84 Autumn 2019 News from Southeast Asia Regional Editor 39 Jokowi's election victory Terence Chong The Region moving smoothly. For instance, his flagship tol However, China’s investment to Indonesia has laut (sea highway) project may face financing declined by 29% to $2.4 billion in 2018 because Economic challenges facing difficulty given a wide imbalance between of US-China trade tensions.3 Indonesia will the supply and demand of ships needed to have to look for other alternative sources to Jokowi in his second term transport goods between Java and the outer compensate for China’s FDI dip. islands. Jokowi’s proposed plan to shift the In conclusion, success in attracting capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan FDI will depend partly on the progress of Siwage Dharma Negara is also challenging. He hopes that capital Indonesia’s deregulation process and policy relocation will boost development outside reform. However, policy reform at the sector Java and thus promote regional equality. and sub-national level will be more difficult. fter winning the presidential elections in low skilled labour, with about 40% of the total However, considering the current infrastructure There are still too many problematic local April this year, President Jokowi’s focus labour force armed with only primary school bottlenecks, attracting investors to the outer regulations that hinder investment. While Awill be on boosting economic growth to qualifications, while only 9% of the labour islands such as Kalimantan might be wishful Jokowi’s administration has tried to scrap 6% per annum in his second term. To surpass force have a university degree. thinking. The recent major blackout across some of such regulations, the Constitutional the current 5% growth rate, Indonesia needs This has been complicated by an ongoing West Java and Greater Jakarta might make Court has ruled that the central government to boost both investment and exports growth structural change in the labour market. Rapid investors think twice about the state of cannot annul regional bylaws. The Court’s simultaneously. This will not be easy given technological change, especially in IT-related infrastructure in the country, especially on the decision will adversely affect the deregulation today’s unpredictable global economy and activities, requires Indonesia to train and equip outer islands. process and hinder investment.4 Finally, rising protectionism around the world. its labour force for the new economy. However, Finally, all government spending Indonesia needs to reform its outdated labour Indonesia’s educational performance continues commitments (for infrastructure, education, regulatory regime in order to accommodate Although Jokowi’s administration has to lag, despite significant increases in education social programmes and subsidies) will eventually the development in digital economy and new improved the country’s rank in the World sector funding over the past decade.2 have to face the reality of a weak financing types of industries. However, a strong political Bank’s Ease of Doing Business from 120th in Given this concern, Jokowi has re- capacity. The country’s persistently weak tax will is required when dealing with trade 2014 to 73rd in 2018, Indonesia can still do emphasised that in his second term, his revenue is a structural issue which will constrain unions, and it remains to be seen if Jokowi can more to make herself attractive to international administration will focus more on human the implementation of various government surmount all his second term challenges. investors. The current US-China trade tensions capital development. To boost human policies and programmes going forward. are a good case in point. Indonesia has not capital quality, Jokowi’s administration will Maintaining macroeconomic stability Siwage Dharma Negara is Senior Fellow been able to attract significant benefits even continue to spend 20% of its annual budget amidst growing global uncertainties will be at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and though manufacturers are relocating from on education. This spending will complement high on the agenda. Jokowi administration Co-coordinator of the Indonesia Studies China to Southeast Asia. This is because the expansion of a number of social policies will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy Programme (ISP) foreign investors find Indonesia's neighbours, such as conditional cash transfer for poor to counter the slowing growth momentum. such as Vietnam,
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