Issuing Activity and Currency in Circulation
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Monetary Policy in Economies with Little Or No Money
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MONETARY POLICY IN ECONOMIES WITH LITTLE OR NO MONEY Bennett T. McCallum Working Paper 9838 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9838 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2003 This paper was prepared for presentation at the December 16-17, 2002, meeting of the Hong Kong Economic Association. I am indebted to Marvin Goodfriend, Lok Sang Ho, Allan Meltzer, and Edward Nelson for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research ©2003 by Bennett T. McCallum. All rights reserved. Short sections of text not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit including © notice, is given to the source. Monetary Policy in Economies with Little or No Money Bennett T. McCallum NBER Working Paper No. 9838 July 2003 JEL No. E3, E4, E5 ABSTRACT The paper's arguments include: (1) Medium-of-exchange money will not disappear in the foreseeable future, although the quantity of base money may continue to decline. (2) In economies with very little money (e.g., no currency but bank settlement balances at the central bank), monetary policy will be conducted much as at present by activist adjustment of overnight interest rates. Operating procedures will be different, however, with payment of interest on reserves likely to become the norm. (3) In economies without any money there can be no monetary policy. The relevant notion of a general price level concerns some index of prices in terms of a medium of account. -
Is the International Role of the Dollar Changing?
Is the International Role of the Dollar Changing? Linda S. Goldberg Recently the U.S. dollar’s preeminence as an international currency has been questioned. The emergence of the euro, changes www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues ✦ in the dollar’s value, and the fi nancial market crisis have, in the view of many commentators, posed a signifi cant challenge to the currency’s long-standing position in world markets. However, a study of the dollar across critical areas of international trade January 2010 ✦ and fi nance suggests that the dollar has retained its standing in key roles. While changes in the global status of the dollar are possible, factors such as inertia in currency use, the large size and relative stability of the U.S. economy, and the dollar pricing of oil and other commodities will help perpetuate the dollar’s role as the dominant medium for international transactions. Volume 16, Number 1 Volume y many measures, the U.S. dollar is the most important currency in the world. IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE It plays a central role in international trade and fi nance as both a store of value Band a medium of exchange. Many countries have adopted an exchange rate regime that anchors the value of their home currency to that of the dollar. Dollar holdings fi gure prominently in offi cial foreign exchange (FX) reserves—the foreign currency deposits and bonds maintained by monetary authorities and governments. And in international trade, the dollar is widely used for invoicing and settling import and export transactions around the world. -
Short-Term Currency in Circulation Forecasting for Monetary Policy Purposes: the Case of Poland
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Koziński, Witold; Świst, Tomasz Article Short-term currency in circulation forecasting for monetary policy purposes: The case of Poland e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly Provided in Cooperation with: University of Information Technology and Management, Rzeszów Suggested Citation: Koziński, Witold; Świst, Tomasz (2015) : Short-term currency in circulation forecasting for monetary policy purposes: The case of Poland, e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly, ISSN 1734-039X, University of Information Technology and Management, Rzeszów, Vol. 11, Iss. 1, pp. 65-75, http://dx.doi.org/10.14636/1734-039X_11_1_007 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/147121 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. -
Hyperinflationary Economies
Issue 175/October 2020 IFRS Developments Hyperinflationary economies (Updated October 2020) What you need to know Overview • We believe that IAS 29 should Accounting standards are applied on the assumption that the value of money (the be applied in 2020 by entities unit of measurement) is constant over time. However, when the rate of inflation is whose functional currency is the no longer negligible, a number of issues arise impacting the true and fair nature of currency of one of the following the accounts of entities that prepare their financial statements on a historical cost countries: basis, for example: • Argentina • Historical cost figures are less meaningful than they are in a low inflation • Islamic Republic of Iran environment • Lebanon • Holding gains on non-monetary assets that are reported as operating profits do not represent real economic gains • South Sudan • Current and prior period financial information is not comparable • Sudan • ‘Real’ capital can be reduced because profits reported do not take account of • Venezuela the higher replacement costs of resources used in the period • Zimbabwe To address such concerns, entities should apply IAS 29 Financial Reporting in Hyperinflationary Economies from the beginning of the period in which the • We believe the following existence of hyperinflation is identified. countries are not currently hyperinflationary, but should be IAS 29 does not establish an absolute inflation rate at which an economy is monitored in 2020: considered hyperinflationary. Instead, it considers a variety of non-exhaustive characteristics of the economic environment of a country that are seen as strong Angola • indicators of the existence of hyperinflation.This publication only considers the • Liberia absolute inflation rates. -
Nicholas Kaldor
PROFILES OF WORLD ECONOMISTS 26 NICHOLAS KALDOR NICHOLAS KALDOR – ONE OF THE FIRST CRITICS OF MONETARISM doc. Ing. Ján Iša, DrSc. Known in economic circles as one of the thought in several fields, but it was his work founders of Post-Keynesianism, Nicholas on the theory of distribution and economic Kaldor (1908–1986) ranks among the worl- growth that stirred the greatest reaction. d's foremost economists of the second half Less well-known, however, is Kaldor's con- of the 20th century. Kaldor contributed to tribution to monetary theory, which has long the development of modern economic been standing quietly in the background. Nicholas Kaldor was born in Budapest on 12 May 1908. rous Third World countries, as well as an advisor to central His father was a lawyer and his mother came from wealthy banks and to the United Nations Economic Commission for business family. Although his father had wanted him to Latin America. Most significant, however, was his role as an study law, Kaldor opted for economics. He began his studi- advisor to Labour finance ministers from 1964 to 1968 and es at the University of Berlin in 1925 and then after two 1974 to 1976. After completing his two-year mission in years moved to the London School of Economics (LSE), Geneva in 1949, Kaldor began to work at Cambridge Uni- from which he graduated in 1930. He remained at the LSE versity and became, as John Maynard Keynes had been, a as lecturer until 1947, during which time his colleagues inc- fellow of King's College, Cambridge. -
New Monetarist Economics: Methods∗
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 442 April 2010 New Monetarist Economics: Methods∗ Stephen Williamson Washington University in St. Louis and Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and St. Louis Randall Wright University of Wisconsin — Madison and Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and Philadelphia ABSTRACT This essay articulates the principles and practices of New Monetarism, our label for a recent body of work on money, banking, payments, and asset markets. We first discuss methodological issues distinguishing our approach from others: New Monetarism has something in common with Old Monetarism, but there are also important differences; it has little in common with Keynesianism. We describe the principles of these schools and contrast them with our approach. To show how it works, in practice, we build a benchmark New Monetarist model, and use it to study several issues, including the cost of inflation, liquidity and asset trading. We also develop a new model of banking. ∗We thank many friends and colleagues for useful discussions and comments, including Neil Wallace, Fernando Alvarez, Robert Lucas, Guillaume Rocheteau, and Lucy Liu. We thank the NSF for financial support. Wright also thanks for support the Ray Zemon Chair in Liquid Assets at the Wisconsin Business School. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis, or the Federal Reserve System. 1Introduction The purpose of this essay is to articulate the principles and practices of a school of thought we call New Monetarist Economics. It is a companion piece to Williamson and Wright (2010), which provides more of a survey of the models used in this literature, and focuses on technical issues to the neglect of methodology or history of thought. -
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Estimating the Volume of Counterfeit U.S. Currency in Circulation Worldwide: Data and Extrapolation Ruth Judson and Richard Porter Abstract The incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Secret Service. This paper assembles data from Federal Reserve and U.S. Secret Service sources and presents a range of estimates for the number of counterfeits in circulation. In addition, the paper presents figures on counterfeit passing activity by denomination, location, and method of production. The paper has two main conclusions: first, the stock of counterfeits in the world as a whole is likely on the order of 1 or fewer per 10,000 genuine notes in both piece and value terms; second, losses to the U.S. public from the most commonly used note, the $20, are relatively small, and are miniscule when counterfeit notes of reasonable quality are considered. Introduction In a series of earlier papers and reports, we estimated that the majority of U.S. currency is in circulation outside the United States and that that share abroad has been generally increasing over the past few decades.1 Numerous news reports in the mid-1990s suggested that vast quantities of 1 Judson and Porter (2001), Porter (1993), Porter and Judson (1996), U.S. Treasury (2000, 2003, 2006), Porter and Weinbach (1999), Judson and Porter (2004). Portions of the material here, which were written by the authors, appear in U.S. -
What's in Your E-Wallet?
Are You An Informed Investor? What’s in your e-Wallet? Virtual currency, which includes digital and crypto-currency are gaining in both popularity and controversy. Thousands of merchants, businesses and other organizations currently accept Bitcoin, one example of crypto-currency, in lieu of traditional currency. An ATM in Las Vegas and the arena of the NBA’s Sacramento Kings professional basketball team both accept Bitcoin. Two attractive characteristics of virtual currency are lower transaction fees and greater anonymity. However, virtual currency is not without risk. Bitcoin exchanges claim to have suffered losses from hacking. MtGox, one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges, recently shut down after claiming to be the victim of hackers and losing more than $350 million of virtual currency. Despite the controversy, virtual currency may find its way into your e-Wallet. What is Virtual Currency? • Virtual currency is subject to minimal regulation, Virtual currency is an electronic medium of susceptible to cyber-attacks and there may be no exchange that, unlike real money, is not controlled recourse should the virtual currency disappear. or backed by a central government or central bank. Virtual currency includes crypto-currency • Virtual currency accounts are not insured by the such as Bitcoin, Ripple or Litecoin. This currency Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), can be bought or sold through virtual currency which insures bank deposits up to $250,000. exchanges and used to purchase goods or services where accepted. These currencies are stored in an • Investments tied to virtual currency may be electronic wallet, also known as an e-Wallet. unsuitable for most investors due to their volatility. -
The Bitcoin – Democratic Money in a Neoliberal Economy
Ad Americam. Journal of American Studies 19 (2018): 155-173 ISSN: 1896-9461, https://doi.org/10.12797/AdAmericam.19.2018.19.11 Magdalena Trzcionka Faculty of International and Political Studies Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3173-9652 The Bitcoin – Democratic Money in a Neoliberal Economy This article examines the bitcoin, at present the most popular cryptocurrency. The bitcoin grew on the major pillars of the neoliberal market economy, such as liberalization, deregu- lation and privatization. But in the end, it turned out to be a cure for the dysfunctions of the financial system, which was based on neoliberal assumptions. The difficulty in captur- ing the character and status of the bitcoin still makes it elusive for the existing rules of law. Some governments observe the evolution of the bitcoin market with interest; others try to work against it. All of this makes the bitcoin an intriguing subject for research. The aim of this article is to present the original assumptions of the bitcoin system; trace the reactions to the bitcoin’s emergence in virtual reality, and next on the very real finan- cial market; and analyze the reinterpretation of the idea that underlies the creation of the cryptocurrency. This article attempts to assess the bitcoin’s potential of achieving a seem- ingly impregnable position on the global financial market. Key words: cryptocurrency, block chain technology, p2p technology Introduction The bitcoin, which was invented more than eight years ago, is at present, the most popular cryptocurrency. Its collapse was prophesied many times due to its highly unstable exchange rate, and the continuous risk of cyberterrorist attacks that it is ex- posed to. -
Virtual Currencies – Key Definitions and Potential Aml/Cft Risks
FATF REPORT Virtual Currencies Key Definitions and Potential AML/CFT Risks June 2014 FINANCIAL ACTION TASK FORCE The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is an independent inter-governmental body that develops and promotes policies to protect the global financial system against money laundering, terrorist financing and the financing of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The FATF Recommendations are recognised as the global anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CFT) standard. For more information about the FATF, please visit the website: www.fatf-gafi.org © 2014 FATF/OECD. All rights reserved. No reproduction or translation of this publication may be made without prior written permission. Applications for such permission, for all or part of this publication, should be made to the FATF Secretariat, 2 rue André Pascal 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France (fax: +33 1 44 30 61 37 or e-mail: [email protected]). Photocredits coverphoto: ©Thinkstock VIRTUAL CURRENCIES – KEY DEFINITIONS AND POTENTIAL AML/CFT RISKS CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 3 KEY DEFINITIONS: ................................................................................................................................ 3 Virtual Currency .................................................................................................................................... 4 Convertible Versus Non-Convertible Virtual Currency ........................................................................ -
Estimation of Euro Currency in Circulation Outside the Euro Area1
EXTERNAL STATISTICS DIVISION ECB-PUBLIC 6 April 2017 ETS/2017/091 Estimation of euro currency in circulation 1 outside the euro area 1. Introduction Recent empirical evidence on currency in circulation has shown a significant inconsistency between total currency in circulation and the estimates of holdings in various statistical domains.2 Some of the evidence points to the European Central Bank (ECB) estimate of euro currency circulating outside the euro area as a prominent cause of this inconsistency.3 In this context, in 2015 and 2016 the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) discussed alternative methods for the estimation of circulation outside the euro area. A new methodology was approved in December 2016 and introduced on 6 April 2017 with the release of quarterly balance of payments (b.o.p.) and international investment position (i.i.p.) statistics for the last quarter of 2016. The following sections present and explain the new methodology used to estimate euro currency holdings by non-euro area residents. 2. New estimation method: lower and upper bounds Given the large variability in the results of the various estimation methods tested and discussed by the ESCB Statistics Committee (STC) in 2016, it was decided to continue using a linear combination of two methods rather than selecting a single method. Two estimates have been chosen to set boundaries to circulation outside the euro area by establishing a lower limit (an estimate of minimum circulation under certain reasonable assumptions on not observable data) and an upper limit (an estimate of a maximum circulation, also on under certain assumptions). -
Central Bank Digital Currency in Historical Perspective: Another Crossroad in Monetary History1
Central Bank Digital Currency in Historical Perspective: Another Crossroad in Monetary History1 Michael D. Bordo, Rutgers University, NBER and Hoover Institution, Stanford University Economics Working Paper 21113 HOOVER INSTITUTION 434 GALVEZ MALL STANFORD UNIVERSITY STANFORD, CA 94305-6010 July 14, 2021 Digitalization of Money is a crossroad in monetary history. Advances in technology has led to the development of new forms of money: virtual (crypto) currencies like bitcoin; stable coins like libra/diem; and central bank digital currencies (CBDC) like the Bahamian sand dollar. These innovations in money and finance have resonance to earlier shifts in monetary history: 1) The shift in the eighteenth and nineteenth century from commodity money (gold and silver coins) to convertible fiduciary money and inconvertible fiat money; 2) the shift in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries from central bank notes to a central bank monopoly;3) Then evolution since the seventeenth century of central banks and the tools of monetary policy. This paper makes the case for CBDC through the lens of monetary history. The bottom line is that the history of transformations in monetary systems suggests that technical change in money is inevitably driven by the financial incentives of a market economy. Government has always had a key role in the provision of outside money, which is a public good. Government has also regulated inside money provided by the private sector. This held for fiduciary money and will likely hold for digital money. CBDC could make monetary policy more efficient, and it could transform the international monetary and payments systems. Keywords: digitalization, financial innovation, evolution, central banks, monetary policy, international payments JEL Codes: E5, F4, N2.