Hyperinflationary Economies
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Monetary Policy in Economies with Little Or No Money
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES MONETARY POLICY IN ECONOMIES WITH LITTLE OR NO MONEY Bennett T. McCallum Working Paper 9838 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9838 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2003 This paper was prepared for presentation at the December 16-17, 2002, meeting of the Hong Kong Economic Association. I am indebted to Marvin Goodfriend, Lok Sang Ho, Allan Meltzer, and Edward Nelson for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research ©2003 by Bennett T. McCallum. All rights reserved. Short sections of text not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit including © notice, is given to the source. Monetary Policy in Economies with Little or No Money Bennett T. McCallum NBER Working Paper No. 9838 July 2003 JEL No. E3, E4, E5 ABSTRACT The paper's arguments include: (1) Medium-of-exchange money will not disappear in the foreseeable future, although the quantity of base money may continue to decline. (2) In economies with very little money (e.g., no currency but bank settlement balances at the central bank), monetary policy will be conducted much as at present by activist adjustment of overnight interest rates. Operating procedures will be different, however, with payment of interest on reserves likely to become the norm. (3) In economies without any money there can be no monetary policy. The relevant notion of a general price level concerns some index of prices in terms of a medium of account. -
New Monetarist Economics: Methods∗
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 442 April 2010 New Monetarist Economics: Methods∗ Stephen Williamson Washington University in St. Louis and Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and St. Louis Randall Wright University of Wisconsin — Madison and Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and Philadelphia ABSTRACT This essay articulates the principles and practices of New Monetarism, our label for a recent body of work on money, banking, payments, and asset markets. We first discuss methodological issues distinguishing our approach from others: New Monetarism has something in common with Old Monetarism, but there are also important differences; it has little in common with Keynesianism. We describe the principles of these schools and contrast them with our approach. To show how it works, in practice, we build a benchmark New Monetarist model, and use it to study several issues, including the cost of inflation, liquidity and asset trading. We also develop a new model of banking. ∗We thank many friends and colleagues for useful discussions and comments, including Neil Wallace, Fernando Alvarez, Robert Lucas, Guillaume Rocheteau, and Lucy Liu. We thank the NSF for financial support. Wright also thanks for support the Ray Zemon Chair in Liquid Assets at the Wisconsin Business School. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis, or the Federal Reserve System. 1Introduction The purpose of this essay is to articulate the principles and practices of a school of thought we call New Monetarist Economics. It is a companion piece to Williamson and Wright (2010), which provides more of a survey of the models used in this literature, and focuses on technical issues to the neglect of methodology or history of thought. -
IAS 21 the Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates
Technical Summary This extract has been prepared by IASC Foundation staff and has not been approved by the IASB. For the requirements reference must be made to International Financial Reporting Standards. IAS 21 The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates An entity may carry on foreign activities in two ways. It may have transactions in foreign currencies or it may have foreign operations. In addition, an entity may present its financial statements in a foreign currency. The objective of this Standard is to prescribe how to include foreign currency transactions and foreign operations in the financial statements of an entity and how to translate financial statements into a presentation currency. The principal issues are which exchange rate(s) to use and how to report the effects of changes in exchange rates in the financial statements. This Standard does not apply to hedge accounting for foreign currency items, including the hedging of a net investment in a foreign operation. IAS 39 applies to hedge accounting. This Standard does not apply to the presentation in a statement of cash flows of the cash flows arising from transactions in a foreign currency, or to the translation of cash flows of a foreign operation (see IAS 7 Statement of Cash Flows). Functional currency Functional currency is the currency of the primary economic environment in which the entity operates. The primary economic environment in which an entity operates is normally the one in which it primarily generates and expends cash. An entity considers the following factors in determining its functional currency: (a) the currency: (i) that mainly influences sales prices for goods and services (this will often be the currency in which sales prices for its goods and services are denominated and settled); and (ii) of the country whose competitive forces and regulations mainly determine the sales prices of its goods and services. -
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Estimating the Volume of Counterfeit U.S. Currency in Circulation Worldwide: Data and Extrapolation Ruth Judson and Richard Porter Abstract The incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the U.S. Treasury and the U.S. Secret Service. This paper assembles data from Federal Reserve and U.S. Secret Service sources and presents a range of estimates for the number of counterfeits in circulation. In addition, the paper presents figures on counterfeit passing activity by denomination, location, and method of production. The paper has two main conclusions: first, the stock of counterfeits in the world as a whole is likely on the order of 1 or fewer per 10,000 genuine notes in both piece and value terms; second, losses to the U.S. public from the most commonly used note, the $20, are relatively small, and are miniscule when counterfeit notes of reasonable quality are considered. Introduction In a series of earlier papers and reports, we estimated that the majority of U.S. currency is in circulation outside the United States and that that share abroad has been generally increasing over the past few decades.1 Numerous news reports in the mid-1990s suggested that vast quantities of 1 Judson and Porter (2001), Porter (1993), Porter and Judson (1996), U.S. Treasury (2000, 2003, 2006), Porter and Weinbach (1999), Judson and Porter (2004). Portions of the material here, which were written by the authors, appear in U.S. -
What's in Your E-Wallet?
Are You An Informed Investor? What’s in your e-Wallet? Virtual currency, which includes digital and crypto-currency are gaining in both popularity and controversy. Thousands of merchants, businesses and other organizations currently accept Bitcoin, one example of crypto-currency, in lieu of traditional currency. An ATM in Las Vegas and the arena of the NBA’s Sacramento Kings professional basketball team both accept Bitcoin. Two attractive characteristics of virtual currency are lower transaction fees and greater anonymity. However, virtual currency is not without risk. Bitcoin exchanges claim to have suffered losses from hacking. MtGox, one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges, recently shut down after claiming to be the victim of hackers and losing more than $350 million of virtual currency. Despite the controversy, virtual currency may find its way into your e-Wallet. What is Virtual Currency? • Virtual currency is subject to minimal regulation, Virtual currency is an electronic medium of susceptible to cyber-attacks and there may be no exchange that, unlike real money, is not controlled recourse should the virtual currency disappear. or backed by a central government or central bank. Virtual currency includes crypto-currency • Virtual currency accounts are not insured by the such as Bitcoin, Ripple or Litecoin. This currency Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), can be bought or sold through virtual currency which insures bank deposits up to $250,000. exchanges and used to purchase goods or services where accepted. These currencies are stored in an • Investments tied to virtual currency may be electronic wallet, also known as an e-Wallet. unsuitable for most investors due to their volatility. -
The Bitcoin – Democratic Money in a Neoliberal Economy
Ad Americam. Journal of American Studies 19 (2018): 155-173 ISSN: 1896-9461, https://doi.org/10.12797/AdAmericam.19.2018.19.11 Magdalena Trzcionka Faculty of International and Political Studies Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3173-9652 The Bitcoin – Democratic Money in a Neoliberal Economy This article examines the bitcoin, at present the most popular cryptocurrency. The bitcoin grew on the major pillars of the neoliberal market economy, such as liberalization, deregu- lation and privatization. But in the end, it turned out to be a cure for the dysfunctions of the financial system, which was based on neoliberal assumptions. The difficulty in captur- ing the character and status of the bitcoin still makes it elusive for the existing rules of law. Some governments observe the evolution of the bitcoin market with interest; others try to work against it. All of this makes the bitcoin an intriguing subject for research. The aim of this article is to present the original assumptions of the bitcoin system; trace the reactions to the bitcoin’s emergence in virtual reality, and next on the very real finan- cial market; and analyze the reinterpretation of the idea that underlies the creation of the cryptocurrency. This article attempts to assess the bitcoin’s potential of achieving a seem- ingly impregnable position on the global financial market. Key words: cryptocurrency, block chain technology, p2p technology Introduction The bitcoin, which was invented more than eight years ago, is at present, the most popular cryptocurrency. Its collapse was prophesied many times due to its highly unstable exchange rate, and the continuous risk of cyberterrorist attacks that it is ex- posed to. -
Virtual Currencies – Key Definitions and Potential Aml/Cft Risks
FATF REPORT Virtual Currencies Key Definitions and Potential AML/CFT Risks June 2014 FINANCIAL ACTION TASK FORCE The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is an independent inter-governmental body that develops and promotes policies to protect the global financial system against money laundering, terrorist financing and the financing of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The FATF Recommendations are recognised as the global anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CFT) standard. For more information about the FATF, please visit the website: www.fatf-gafi.org © 2014 FATF/OECD. All rights reserved. No reproduction or translation of this publication may be made without prior written permission. Applications for such permission, for all or part of this publication, should be made to the FATF Secretariat, 2 rue André Pascal 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France (fax: +33 1 44 30 61 37 or e-mail: [email protected]). Photocredits coverphoto: ©Thinkstock VIRTUAL CURRENCIES – KEY DEFINITIONS AND POTENTIAL AML/CFT RISKS CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 3 KEY DEFINITIONS: ................................................................................................................................ 3 Virtual Currency .................................................................................................................................... 4 Convertible Versus Non-Convertible Virtual Currency ........................................................................ -
Floating Exchange Rates and the Need for Surveillance
ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE No. 127, May 1978 FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES AND THE NEED FOR SURVEILLANCE JACQUES R. ARTUS AND ANDREW D. CROCKETT INTERNATIONAL FINANCE SECTION DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS PRINCETON UNIVERSITY Princeton, New Jersey This is the one hundred and twenty-seventh number in the series ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, published from time to time by the International Finance Section of the Department of Economics of Princeton University. The authors, Jacques R. Artus and Andrew D. Crockett, are both on the staff of the International Monetary Fund. Artus, who is Chief of the External Adjustment Division of the Fund, which he joined as economist in 1969, has pub- lished widely on economic and financial matters. Crockett, a member of the staff of the Bank of England from 1966 to 1972, when he joined the Fund,is presently Advisor, Middle East Department. He is the author of Money: Theory, Policy, and Institutions and International Money: Issues and Analysis. The Section sponsors the Essays in this series but takes no further responsibility for the opinions expressed in them. The writers are free to develop their topics as they wish. PETER B. KENEN, Director International Finance Section ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE No. 127, May 1978 FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES AND THE NEED FOR SURVEILLANCE JACQUES R. ARTUS AND ANDREW D. CROCKETT INTERNATIONAL FINANCE SECTION DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS PRINCETON UNIVERSITY Princeton, New Jersey Copyright © 1978, by International Finance Section Department of Economics, Princeton University Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Artus, Jacques R Floating exchange rates and the need for surveillance. (Essays in international finance; no. -
Denationalisation of Money -The Argument Refined
Denationalisation of Money -The Argument Refined An Analysis ofthe Theory and Practice of Concurrent Currencies F. A. HAYEK Nohel Laureate 1974 Diseases desperate grown, By desperate appliances are reli'ved, Or not at all. WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE (Hamlet, Act iv, Scene iii) THIRD EDITION ~~ Published by THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS 1990 First published in October 1976 Second Edition, revised and enlarged, February 1978 Third Edition, with a new Introduction, October 1990 by THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS 2 Lord North Street, Westminster, London SWIP 3LB © THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS 1976, 1978, 1990 Hobart Paper (Special) 70 All rights reseroed ISSN 0073-2818 ISBN 0-255 36239-0 Printed in Great Britain by GORON PRO-PRINT CO LTD 6 Marlborough Road, Churchill Industrial Estate, Lancing, W Sussex Text set in 'Monotype' Baskeroille CONTENTS Page PREFACE Arthur Seldon 9 PREFACE TO THE SECOND (EXTENDED) EDITION A.S. 11 AUTHOR'S INTRODUCTION 13 A NOTE TO THE SECOND EDITION 16 THE AUTHOR 18 INTRODUCTION TO THE THIRD EDITION Geoffrey E. Wood 19 THE PRACTICAL PROPOSAL 23 Free trade in money 23 Proposal more practicable than utopian European currency 23 Free trade in banking 24 Preventing government from concealing depreciation 25 II THE GENERALISATION OF THR UNDERLYING PRINCIPLE 26 Competition in currency not discussed by economists 26 Initial advantages of government monopoly in money 27 III THE ORIGIN OF THE GOVERNMENT PREROGATIVE OF MAKING MONEY 28 Government certificate of metal weight and purity 29 The appearance of paper money 31 -
Central Bank Digital Currency in Historical Perspective: Another Crossroad in Monetary History1
Central Bank Digital Currency in Historical Perspective: Another Crossroad in Monetary History1 Michael D. Bordo, Rutgers University, NBER and Hoover Institution, Stanford University Economics Working Paper 21113 HOOVER INSTITUTION 434 GALVEZ MALL STANFORD UNIVERSITY STANFORD, CA 94305-6010 July 14, 2021 Digitalization of Money is a crossroad in monetary history. Advances in technology has led to the development of new forms of money: virtual (crypto) currencies like bitcoin; stable coins like libra/diem; and central bank digital currencies (CBDC) like the Bahamian sand dollar. These innovations in money and finance have resonance to earlier shifts in monetary history: 1) The shift in the eighteenth and nineteenth century from commodity money (gold and silver coins) to convertible fiduciary money and inconvertible fiat money; 2) the shift in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries from central bank notes to a central bank monopoly;3) Then evolution since the seventeenth century of central banks and the tools of monetary policy. This paper makes the case for CBDC through the lens of monetary history. The bottom line is that the history of transformations in monetary systems suggests that technical change in money is inevitably driven by the financial incentives of a market economy. Government has always had a key role in the provision of outside money, which is a public good. Government has also regulated inside money provided by the private sector. This held for fiduciary money and will likely hold for digital money. CBDC could make monetary policy more efficient, and it could transform the international monetary and payments systems. Keywords: digitalization, financial innovation, evolution, central banks, monetary policy, international payments JEL Codes: E5, F4, N2. -
Does Dollar Depreciation Cause Inflation?
16 B. W. Hafer R. W Hater is a research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. Kevin L. Kliesen provided research assistance. Does Dollar Depreciation Cause Inflation? URING the past few years, the rate of in- THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN’ flation has risen from 1.1 percent in 1986, THE EXCHANGE RATE AND measured by the consumer price index, to 4.4 INFLATION percent in t988. Though this rate of pt’ice in- crease pales in comparison to the double-digit What is the foreign exchange rate? Simply inflation of the mid-1970s and early 1980s, it is high enough to cause concern among economic put, the price of a unit of one currency in terms of another. Why would one want to pur- analysts, financial market participants and chase another currency? There are several policymakers. Among the various explanations reasons. One is the need of foreign currency to for the recent acceleration in inflation is the purchase foreign goods. Another is the need of decline in the foreign exchange value of the foreign currency to trade in other countries’ dollar since 1985.’ According to this view, the financial assets. Purchases of financial assets, decline in the value of the dollar raises the like stocks or bonds, in another country can dollar price of imported goods and, therefore, only be completed if one exchanges dollars for the prices paid by U.S. citizens as well. The con- the foreign currency. sequence is inflation. Or is it? The purpose of this article is to provide a The dollar’s foreign exchange value, common- framework in which to evaluate the claim that ly measured against a weighted average of a decline in the dollar’s foreign exchange value foreign currencies, has varied considerably raises the rate of inflation in the United States. -
BIS Working Papers No 948 Central Bank Digital Currency: the Quest for Minimally Invasive Technology
BIS Working Papers No 948 Central bank digital currency: the quest for minimally invasive technology by Raphael Auer and Rainer Böhme Monetary and Economic Department June 2021 JEL classification: E42, E58, G21, G28. Keywords: central bank digital currency, CBDC, payments, cash, privacy, distributed systems. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2021. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Central bank digital currency: the quest for minimally invasive 1 technology By Raphael Auer and Rainer Böhme CBDCs should let central banks provide a universal means of payment for the digital era. At the same time, such currencies must safeguard consumer privacy and maintain the two-tier financial system. We set out the economic and operational requirements for a “minimally invasive” design – one that preserves the private sector’s primary role in retail payments and financial intermediation – for CBDCs and discuss the implications for the underlying technology. Developments inspired by popular cryptocurrency systems do not meet these requirements. Instead, cash is the model for CBDC design. Showing particular promise are digital banknotes that run on “intermediated” or “hybrid” CBDC architectures, supported with technology to facilitate record-keeping of direct claims on the central bank by private sector entities.