Solar Energy TECHNOLOGIES Perspectives Please note that this PDF is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp Renewable Energy Renewable Solar Energy Renewable Energy Perspectives In 90 minutes, enough sunlight strikes the earth to provide the entire planet's energy needs for one year. While solar energy is abundant, it represents a tiny Technologies fraction of the world’s current energy mix. But this is changing rapidly and is being driven by global action to improve energy access and supply security, and to mitigate climate change. Technologies Solar Around the world, countries and companies are investing in solar generation capacity on an unprecedented scale, and, as a consequence, costs continue to fall and technologies improve. This publication gives an authoritative view of these technologies and market trends, in both advanced and developing Energy economies, while providing examples of the best and most advanced practices. It also provides a unique guide for policy makers, industry representatives and concerned stakeholders on how best to use, combine and successfully promote the major categories of solar energy: solar heating and cooling, photovoltaic Technologies Solar Energy Perspectives Solar Energy Perspectives and solar thermal electricity, as well as solar fuels. Finally, in analysing the likely evolution of electricity and energy-consuming sectors – buildings, industry and transport – it explores the leading role solar energy could play in the long-term future of our energy system. Renewable Energy (61 2011 25 1P1) 978-92-64-12457-8 €100 -:HSTCQE=VWYZ\]: Renewable Energy Renewable Renewable Energy Technologies Energy Perspectives Solar Renewable Energy Renewable 2011 OECD/IEA, © INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2011 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden 9 rue de la Fédération Switzerland 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Turkey www.iea.org United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are available also participates in online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp the work of the IEA. “The sun will be the fuel of the future” Anonymous, 1876, Popular Science Foreword Foreword Solar energy technologies have witnessed false starts, such as the early boom of solar water heaters in California a century ago, and the renewed interest that followed the first and second oil shocks. Will they now fulfil their promise to deliver affordable, abundant, inexhaustible and clean energy? Which solar technologies are really close to competitiveness, in which circumstances and for which uses? What kind of policy support do they require and for how long? What are the costs, who will bear them? What are the benefits, and who will reap them? The rapid evolution of these technologies makes policy answers to those questions unusually difficult. Up to now, only a limited number of countries have been supporting most of the effort to drive solar energy technologies to competitiveness. Concerns about costs have also sometimes led to abrupt policy revisions. Policies may lapse or lose momentum just a few years before they would have succeeded. This timely publication is the first in-depth IEA technology study focusing on renewable technologies. It offers relevant information, accurate data and sound analyses to policy makers, industry stakeholders, and the wider public. It builds upon the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives in considering end-use sectors and the ever-growing role of electricity. It also builds on many IEA Technology Roadmaps in elaborating an integrated approach to various solar energy technologies. It shows how they could combine to respond to our energy needs in providing electricity, heat and fuels. This publication also investigates ways to make support policies more effective and cost- effective. It suggests that comprehensive and fine-tuned policies supporting a large portfolio of solar energy technologies could be extended to most sunny regions of the world, where most of the growth of population and economy is taking place. If this were the case, solar energy could well become a competitive energy source in many applications within the next twenty years. In the penultimate chapter, this publication departs from usual IEA work and complements our least-cost modelling exercises by depicting a world in which solar energy reaches its very fullest potential by the second part of this century. A number of assumptions are made to see what might be possible in terms of solar deployment, while keeping affordability in sight. Under these assumptions, solar energy has immense potential and could emerge as a major source of energy, in particular if energy-related carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to quite low levels and if other low-carbon technology options cannot deliver on large scale. While this outcome is hypothetical, it does suggest that current efforts are warranted to enrich the portfolio of clean and sustainable energy options for the future. Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director This publication has been produced under the authority of the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of individual IEA member countries. 2011 OECD/IEA, 5 © 2011 OECD/IEA, © Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This publication was written by Cédric Philibert from the Renewable Energy Division at the International Energy Agency, with the constant support and supervision of Dr. Paolo Frankl, Head of the Division. Ambassador Richard Jones, Deputy Executive Director, Didier Houssin, Director of the Energy Markets and Security, and Rebecca Gaghen, Head of the Communication and Information Office, provided guidance and inputs. Marilyn Smith, Editor-in-Chief, and Peter Chambers edited the book. Muriel Custodio and her team turned the manuscript into this book. Bertrand Sadin designed all graphics and Corinne Hayworth designed the cover. Milou Beerepoot, Adam Brown, Hugo Chandler, Anselm Eisentraut, Carlos Gasco, Dagmar Grazyck, Lew Fulton, Quentin Marchais, Ada Marmion, Simon Mueller, Zuzana Dobrotkova, Uwe Remme, Christopher Segar, Jonathan Sinton, Michael Taylor, Peter Taylor, Laszlo Varro and Markus Wrake – all IEA colleagues – provided comments and insights. Quentin Marchais also helped gathering figures and photographs. The author would like to thank them all, as well as Muriel Alaphilippe, Denis Bonnelle, Christian Breyer, Jenny Chase, Luis Crespo Rodrigez, Patrick Criqui, Michael Epstein, Denis Eudeline, Charles Forsberg, Henner Gladen, Heike Hoedt, Hiroshi Kaneko, Andreas Indinger, François Lempérière, Christian Lenôtre, Philippe Malbranche, Anton Meier, David Mills, Stefan Nowak, Christoph Richter, Steven Silvers, Jean-Pierre Traisnel, Werner Weiss, Zhifeng Weng and several Delegates to the IEA, who gave inputs and comments, and the many others who helped provide the illustrations or authorise their reproduction. Frédéric Siros deserves special thanks for his thorough review of the whole manuscript. This publication was made possible thanks to the financial support of the French Government through ADEME, and the United States Department of energy. 2011 OECD/IEA, 7 © 2011 OECD/IEA, © Table of contents Table.of.Contents Foreword. 5 Acknowledgements . 7 Executive.Summary. 19 Chapter 1 Rationale.for.harnessing.the.solar.resource. 23 Drivers and incentives. 25 Structure of the book. 28 Part A. Markets and outlook . 28 Part B. Solar technologies. 28 Part C. The way forward. 28 PART.A ..MARKETS AND OUTLOOK Chapter 2. The.solar.resource.and.its.possible.uses . 31