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Cambodia's Experience 38538 Public Disclosure Authorized EAST ASIAN Public Disclosure Authorized VISIONS PERSPECTIVES ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUN PORN MONIROTH • ROBERTO F. DE OCAMPO • TOYOO GYOHTEN • YUJIRO HAYAMI JOMO K. S. • CAO SY KIEM • TOMMY KOH • HARUHIKO KURODA • LONG YONGTU KISHOREPublic Disclosure Authorized MAHBUBANI • FELIPE MEDALLA • MARI PANGESTU • MINXIN PEI • ANDREW SHENG WU JINGLIAN • JOSEPH YAM • ZHENG BIJIAN EDITED BY INDERMIT GILL, YUKON HUANG, AND HOMI KHARAS Public Disclosure Authorized EAST ASIAN VISIONS EAST AS I AN VI S I ONS PE RSP ECTIVE S ON E C ONO MIC DEVELOP ME N T EDITORS INDERMIT GILL • YUKON HUANG • HOMI KHARAS AUTHORS AUN PORN MONIROTH • ROBERTO F. DE OCAMPO TOYOO GYOHTEN • YUJIRO HAYAMI • JOMO K. S. CAO SY KIEM • TOMMY KOH • HARUHIKO KURODA LONG YONGTU • KISHORE MAHBUBANI FELIPE MEDALLA • MARI PANGESTU • MINXIN PEI ANDREW SHENG • WU JINGLIAN • JOSEPH YAM ZHENG BIJIAN A copublication of the World Bank and the Institute of Policy Studies (Singapore) ©2007 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and The Institute of Policy Studies The International Bank for Reconstruction The Institute of Policy Studies and Development / The World Bank 29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace #06-06 1818 H Street NW Singapore 119620 Washington DC 20433 Tel: +65-6215-1010 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Fax: 6215-1014 Internet: www.worldbank.org Internet: www.ips.org.sg E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 5 10 09 08 07 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete informa- tion to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978- 750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN-10: 0-8213-6745-5 ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6745-2 eISBN: 0-8213-6746-3 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6745-2 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data East Asian visions : perspectives on economic development / Indermit Gill, Yukon Huang, and Homi Kharas editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6745-2 ISBN-10: 0-8213-6745-5 ISBN-10: 0-8213-6746-3 (electronic) 1. East Asia—Economic integration. 2. East Asia—Economic policy. 3. East Asia—Foreign economic rela- tions. 4. China—Economic policy. I. Gill, Indermit Singh, 1961- II. Huang, Yukon. III. Kharas, Homi J., 1954- HC460.5.E277 2006 338.95—dc22 2006037028 The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) is a think-tank dedicated to fostering good governance in Singapore through strategic policy research and discussion. It focuses on Singapore’s domestic developments and its external relations. It takes a multidisciplinary approach in its analysis, with an emphasis on long-term strategic thinking. IPS began operations in 1988. Key activities include research projects, conferences, and publications. The institute’s mission is threefold: Ⅲ Analysis: To analyze policy issues of critical concern to Singapore and contribute to policy development Ⅲ Bridge-building: To build bridges among diverse stakeholders, including government, business, aca- demia, and civil society Ⅲ Communication: To communicate research findings to a wider community and generate a greater awareness of policy issues Cover design by Drew Fasick. Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS x 1 Perspectives on East Asian Development: An Introduction 1 Indermit S. Gill, Yukon Huang, and Homi Kharas 2 Economic Integration in East Asia: Cambodia’s Experience 24 Aun Porn Moniroth 3 The Case for East Asian Financial Cooperation 53 Roberto F. de Ocampo 4 The Future of Asia 69 Toyoo Gyohten 5 Rural-Based Development in East Asia under Globalization 82 Yujiro Hayami 6 Economic Development and Regional Cooperation in East Asia 107 Jomo K. S. 7 East Asian Economic Integration: Problems for Late-Entry Countries 128 Cao Sy Kiem v vi CONTENTS 8 Asia’s Challenges 142 Tommy Koh 9 Toward an Integrated, Poverty-Free, and Peaceful East Asia 149 Haruhiko Kuroda 10 China’s WTO Accession: Implications and Key Lessons Learned 178 Long Yongtu 11 From Confucius to Kennedy: Principles of East Asian Governance 188 Kishore Mahbubani 12 Economic Integration in East Asia: A Philippine Perspective 203 Felipe Medalla 13 Visions of East Asia: Three Engines for a Way Forward 231 Mari Pangestu 14 Political Foundations for Sustainable Growth in Asia 244 Minxin Pei 15 The Asian Network Economy in the 21st Century 258 Andrew Sheng 16 Does China Need to Change Its Industrialization Path? 285 Wu Jinglian 17 Reflections on Financial and Monetary Developments in Asia 309 Joseph Yam 18 The Internal and External Environments of China’s Development over the Next Five Years 323 Zheng Bijian ABOUT THE AUTHORS 339 ABOUT THE EDITORS 347 INDEX 349 CONTENTS vii Box 7.1 The ASEAN Integration Gap 136 Figures 1.1 East Asia Rebounds: Share of World Gross Domestic Product 6 3.1 Share of East Asian FDI in Developing-Country FDI 54 5.1 Operations of an Intervillage Vegetable Collector, Upland West Java 97 15.1 Population Share of the Workforce in China, India, and Japan, 1950–2050 261 16.1 Secondary Sector Employment and Urban Unemployment 1991–2004 292 16.2 The GDP Share of Services in China and Selected Countries 298 16.3 Changes in the GDP Share of Services in China and Selected Countries 299 16.4 Investment as a Share of GDP 301 16.5 Investment Efficiency: The Incremental Capital-Output Rate 302 Tables 1.1 Contributing Authors 3 1.2 A Roadmap to the Essays 5 1.3 Major Themes, by Author 21 2.1 Share of Intraregional Trade in Total Trade, 1985–2001 32 3.1 Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 54 3.2 Pre- and Postcrisis GDP Growth 55 3.3 Exports as a Share of GDP 57 3.4 Net Total Private Capital Flows 59 3.5 East Asian Savings as a Share of GDP, 1993–2003 61 3.6 Corruption Perceptions Index, 2005 65 5.1 Cost of Credit to Vegetable Producers under Alternative Schemes, Majalengka District, West Java, 1990 100 9.1 Intraregional Trade Share, 1980–2004 151 9.2 FTAs and Economic Partnership Agreements in East Asia, April 2006 153 9.3 Selected Indicators for East Asian Economies 157 12.1 Average Annual Per Capita GDP Growth in Selected Asian Countries 208 viii CONTENTS 12.2 Export Growth Rates in Selected Asian Countries 211 12.3 Growth in Philippine Exports 212 12.4 Share of Worker Remittances and Two Key Exports in Per Capita GNP in the Philippines 218 12.5 Worker Remittances, by Source in the Philippines 219 12.6 Share of Traditional Manufacturing in GDP in the Philippines 220 12.7 Philippine Exports, by Recipient 225 12.8 Government Capital Expenditures as a Share of GDP 227 14.1 The Leadership Response to Crisis in Selected Asian Countries 249 16.1 Impact on Efficiency and Energy Consumption of Unsubsidized Energy Prices in China 290 16.2 Per Capita Ownership of Resources in China Relative to the World Average 291 16.3 China’s Resource Consumption as a Percentage of the World Total 295 16.4 GDP Share of the Output Value of the Tertiary Sector, 1980–2004 300 Acknowledgments This collection of essays was produced by the Office of the Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific Region of the World Bank. It is the result of a collective effort by a World Bank team led by Homi Kharas (chief economist), Indermit S. Gill (economic adviser), and Yukon Huang (senior adviser). Tommy Koh (chairman) and Arun Mahizhnan (deputy director) of the Institute for Policy Studies (Singapore) provided guidance and wise counsel at all stages of the project. The editors are grateful for valuable comments and logistical support from a number of people. Foremost, we would like to thank Radu Tatucu for his valuable contributions during all stages of the preparation, which involved not only logistical support, but also an essential coordinating role that ensured the timely completion of this publication. Without his assistance, this volume would not have been possible. At the World Bank, among the many colleagues who contributed their ideas and inputs are Nisha Agrawal, Adelma Bowrin, Huot Chea, Jianqing Chen, Tianshu Chen, Doris Chung, Kazi Matin, Vera Songwe, Thang-Long Ton, William Wallace, and Chunlin Zhang. We are also grateful to Arun Mahizhnan, Kee Wee Tan, Chang Li Lin, and Andrea Wong of the Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore, and to Made Marthini in Indonesia, Junko Mogi in Japan, and Sunny Yung in Hong Kong (China).
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