A DICTIONARY of CLICHÉS Other Partridge Titles Published by Routledge
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Rational Wishful Thinking
Rational self-deception Eli Spiegelman a Jan 31, 2018 a CEREN, EA 7477, Burgundy School of Business - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 29 rue Sambin, Dijon 21000, France. [email protected] Keywords: Wishful thinking; self-deception; beliefs; choice theory; experiment; regret theory; ambiguity JEL D8, D9 Funding This research benefitted from funding from LESSAC, Burgundy School of Business. Abstract This note presents a model of wishful thinking as manipulation of prior beliefs, and a novel experimental test. The theoretical context is a three-period model, in which the agent is faced with a state-contingent optimal action, in which one state yields a higher payoff. In period 0 she observes the objective prior probability that each state will occur, but may alter her beliefs about these probabilities (self-deceive). The beliefs she chooses in period 0 determine her action in period 1 as a standard maximization procedure. In period 2, a signal yields information about the state of the world. A key assumption is that this signal may not be perfectly revealing. It is shown that the objective prior is optimal if and only if the signal in period 2 is perfectly revealing. Predictions of the theory are tested in a bet-choice experiment. I then present an experimental test designed to investigate the model’s predictions. Subjects choose to play a bet or pass it up for another, and the experimental control varies whether learn about the second bet upon taking the first. The results of the experiment are also compared to the literature on regret theory and ambiguity aversion. -
Polygamy As a Red Herring in the Same-Sex Marriage Debate
012306 09_KHALSA.DOC 2/6/2006 10:22 AM Note POLYGAMY AS A RED HERRING IN THE SAME-SEX MARRIAGE DEBATE RUTH K. KHALSA INTRODUCTION Critics of same -sex marriage have argued that if same-sex marriage is legalized, then eventually polygamy and other currently prohibited sexual relationships, such as bestiality and incest, will be legalized as well. The polygamy issue received increased attention during the 1996 congressional hearings1 on the Defense of Marriage Act.2 Representative Bob Inglis of South Carolina asked, “If a person had an ‘insatiable desire’ to marry more than one wife . what argument did gay activists have to deny him a legal, polygamous marriage?”3 That same year, the Supreme Court decided Romer v. Evans,4 holding unconstitutional a Colorado state amendment that would have repealed existing city ordinances prohibiting Copyright © 2005 by Ruth K. Khalsa. 1. Professor Hadley Arkes stated that: [I]f marriage . could mean just anything the positive law proclaimed it to mean, then the positive law could define just about anything as a marriage. [W]hy shouldn’t it be possible to permit a mature woman, past child bearing, to marry her grown son? In fact, why would it not be possible to permit a man, much taken with himself, to marry himself? . [Although] I am not predicting that, if gay marriage were allowed, we would be engulfed by incest and polygamy[,] . [w]hat is being posed here is a question of principle: [w]hat is the ground on which the law would turn back these challenges? Defense of Marriage Act: Hearings on H.R. -
The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Griffis V. Luban: a Red Herring in the High Seas of Personal Jurisdiction Laura S
William Mitchell Law Review Volume 29 | Issue 2 Article 15 2002 Griffis v. Luban: A Red Herring in the High Seas of Personal Jurisdiction Laura S. Ferster Follow this and additional works at: http://open.mitchellhamline.edu/wmlr Recommended Citation Ferster, Laura S. (2002) "Griffis v. Luban: A Red Herring in the High Seas of Personal Jurisdiction," William Mitchell Law Review: Vol. 29: Iss. 2, Article 15. Available at: http://open.mitchellhamline.edu/wmlr/vol29/iss2/15 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Reviews and Journals at Mitchell Hamline Open Access. It has been accepted for inclusion in William Mitchell Law Review by an authorized administrator of Mitchell Hamline Open Access. For more information, please contact [email protected]. © Mitchell Hamline School of Law Ferster: Griffis v. Luban: A Red Herring in the High Seas of Personal Juri FINAL FERSTER GRIFFIS.DOC 10/28/2002 10:47 PM GRIFFIS V. LUBAN: A RED HERRING IN THE HIGH SEAS OF PERSONAL JURISDICTION Laura S. Ferster† I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................343 II. GRIFFIS:FACTS & PROCEDURAL HISTORY..............................345 A. Facts ............................................................................345 B. Griffis in the Minnesota Court of Appeals........................346 C. Griffis in the Minnesota Supreme Court ..........................347 III. ANALYSIS OF THE GRIFFIS HOLDING......................................348 A. “Sound Bites” of Fair Play and Substantial -
L-Fil-Let/14 Critica Letteraria E Letterature Comparate
DOTTORATO DI RICERCA IN STUDI UMANISTICI – TRADIZIONE E CONTEMPORANEITÀ CICLO XXX S.S.D.: L-FIL-LET/14 CRITICA LETTERARIA E LETTERATURE COMPARATE IL MITO CLASSICO NELLA DRAMMATURGIA DI LINGUA PORTOGHESE: I CICLI ARGONAUTICO, TEBANO E TROIANO Coordinatore: Chiar.ma Prof.ssa Cinzia Bearzot Tutor: Chiar.ma Prof.ssa Maria Pia Pattoni Tesi di Dottorato di Corrado Cuccoro Matricola: 4411568 Anno Accademico 2016/2017 1 Ai miei cari assenti 2 INTRODUZIONE La drammaturgia lusofona che a vario titolo si pone in rapporto dialettico con il retaggio culturale greco-latino costituisce un campo di esperienze sorprendentemente vasto e variegato, che solo nel corrente secolo ha attratto l’attenzione degli studiosi – portoghesi, primi tra tutti1 –, ausiliati dalle nuove risorse informatiche, in una prospettiva comparatistica sistematica e virtualmente ricettiva di ogni istanza intertestuale, in senso diacronico e sincronico, intralinguistico2 e interlinguistico (afferente cioè alle fonti greche e latine come alla produzione estera omologa3). Che il quadro teoretico di tale prospettiva rimanga d’altro canto non del tutto risolto anche per aspetti fondamentali (come si vedrà qui e nelle Considerazioni finali) si deve, almeno in parte, alla fase espansiva – verrebbe da dire “eruttiva” – della ricerca e alla parcellizzazione degli approcci disciplinari concomitanti, e talvolta concorrenti, nella galassia comparatistica: si pensi agli ormai imponenti Classical Reception Studies, Traductological Studies, Post-colonial Studies4, Gender Studies. Tanto in Portogallo quanto in Brasile, inoltre, gli studi tendono a concentrarsi sulla fortuna di singole figure mitiche o di determinati motivi greco-latini entro i rispettivi confini nazionali, magari sullo sfondo dei contesti geopolitici di appartenenza (l’Europa dell’Unione, l’America latina), laddove la storia e la lingua comuni dell’ex impero consentirebbero ricognizioni impregiudicate e più ambiziose5. -
Why Disparate Impact Liability Does Not Induce Hiring Quotas
The Q-Word as Red Herring: Why Disparate Impact Liability Does Not Induce Hiring Quotas Ian Ayres* and Peter Siegelman** I. Introduction The debates over the passage of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act' were marked by passionate disagreement: conservatives objected to the legislation as an unwarranted interference with employers' freedom of contract, while liberal supporters considered it a first step toward racial justice. While disagreement about what employment discrimination law should do has continued-in much the same form-to this day,3 there has been surprising consensus about the mechanism by which Title VII actually works:4 whether it is thought of as inadequate or excessive, Title VII is * William K. Townsend Professor of Law, Yale Law School. ** Research Fellow, American Bar Foundation and Olin Law and Economics Visiting Fellow, Yale Law School. Henry Hansmann made helpful comments, as did Keith Hylton on a much earlier version of some of the ideas. We also gratefully acknowledge many constructive discussions with members of the Symposium on The Changing Workplace. Dawn Jeglum-Bartusch, Franklin Parlamis, and Cathy Sharkey provided excellent research assistance. 1. 42 U.S.C. § 2000a (1994). 2. See ALFRED W. BLUMROSEN, MODERN LAW: THE LAW TRANSMISSION SYSrEM AND EQUAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY 43 (1993) ("The common ground between [southern Democrats and conservative Republicans in the U.S. Senate] was the desire to minimize federal regulation. Conservative Republicans did not want business hobbled by extensive regulation, and the southern Democrats had the same conviction about the southern way of life [i.e., segregation]."); Michael E. Gold, Griggs' Folly: An Essay on the Theory, Problems, and Origin of the Adverse Impact Definition of Employment Discriminationand a Recommendation for Reform, 7 INDUS. -
Inductions, Red Herrings, and the Best Explanation for the Mixed Record of Science
University at Albany, State University of New York Scholars Archive Philosophy Faculty Scholarship Philosophy 6-2010 Inductions, red herrings, and the best explanation for the mixed record of science P.D. Magnus University at Albany, State University of New York, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cas_philosophy_scholar Part of the Philosophy of Science Commons Recommended Citation Magnus, P.D., "Inductions, red herrings, and the best explanation for the mixed record of science" (2010). Philosophy Faculty Scholarship. 49. https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cas_philosophy_scholar/49 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Philosophy at Scholars Archive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Philosophy Faculty Scholarship by an authorized administrator of Scholars Archive. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Inductions, red herrings, and the best explanation for the mixed record of science P.D. Magnus∗ December 22, 2009 This is the author's final draft of a paper forthcoming The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. e-mail: pmagnus(at)fecundity.com web: http://www.fecundity.com/job Abstract Kyle Stanford has recently claimed to offer a new challenge to sci- entific realism. Taking his inspiration from the familiar Pessimistic In- duction (PI), Stanford proposes a New Induction (NI). Contra Anjan Chakravartty's suggestion that the NI is a \red herring", I argue that it reveals something deep and important about science. The Problem of Unconceived Alternatives, which lies at the heart of the NI, yields a richer anti-realism than the PI. It explains why science falls short when it falls short, and so it might figure in the most coherent account of scientific practice. -
Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Engelmann, Jan; Lebreton, Maël; Schwardmann, Peter; van der Weele, Joël J.; Chang, Li-Ang Working Paper Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, No. TI 2019-042/I Provided in Cooperation with: Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam Suggested Citation: Engelmann, Jan; Lebreton, Maël; Schwardmann, Peter; van der Weele, Joël J.; Chang, Li-Ang (2019) : Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinking, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, No. TI 2019-042/I, Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/205332 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under -
Corpus Study of Tense, Aspect, and Modality in Diglossic Speech in Cairene Arabic
CORPUS STUDY OF TENSE, ASPECT, AND MODALITY IN DIGLOSSIC SPEECH IN CAIRENE ARABIC BY OLA AHMED MOSHREF DISSERTATION Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Linguistics in the Graduate College of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2012 Urbana, Illinois Doctoral Committee: Professor Elabbas Benmamoun, Chair Professor Eyamba Bokamba Professor Rakesh M. Bhatt Assistant Professor Marina Terkourafi ABSTRACT Morpho-syntactic features of Modern Standard Arabic mix intricately with those of Egyptian Colloquial Arabic in ordinary speech. I study the lexical, phonological and syntactic features of verb phrase morphemes and constituents in different tenses, aspects, moods. A corpus of over 3000 phrases was collected from religious, political/economic and sports interviews on four Egyptian satellite TV channels. The computational analysis of the data shows that systematic and content morphemes from both varieties of Arabic combine in principled ways. Syntactic considerations play a critical role with regard to the frequency and direction of code-switching between the negative marker, subject, or complement on one hand and the verb on the other. Morph-syntactic constraints regulate different types of discourse but more formal topics may exhibit more mixing between Colloquial aspect or future markers and Standard verbs. ii To the One Arab Dream that will come true inshaa’ Allah! عربية أنا.. أميت دمها خري الدماء.. كما يقول أيب الشاعر العراقي: بدر شاكر السياب Arab I am.. My nation’s blood is the finest.. As my father says Iraqi Poet: Badr Shaker Elsayyab iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I’m sincerely thankful to my advisor Prof. Elabbas Benmamoun, who during the six years of my study at UIUC was always kind, caring and supportive on the personal and academic levels. -
First-Person Participation in Dante's Commedia Katherine Lucy
First-Person Participation in Dante’s Commedia Katherine Lucy Powlesland Pembroke College August 2018 This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. i Contents Contents ................................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ iii Abbreviations, Editions, and Translations ............................................................................................. iv Preface ................................................................................................................................................... vi Chapter 1: Reading Interactively ............................................................................................................ 8 1.1 Narratological approaches to the Commedia .............................................................................. 12 1.2 Bernard’s interaction manquée ................................................................................................... 17 1.3 Focal view switching .................................................................................................................. 22 1.4 Bernard’s object .......................................................................................................................... 27 1.5 Bernard’s double frame violation .............................................................................................. -
Wishful Thinking Final
A Framework for Understanding Wishful Thinking Daniel J. Hicks Science and Technology Policy Fellowships American Association for the Advancement of Science [email protected] Kevin C. Elliott Department of Philosophy Michigan State University [email protected] Abstract While the science and values literature has seen recurrent concerns about wishful thinking, there have been few efforts to characterize this phenomenon. Based on a review of varieties of wishful thinking involved in climate skepticism, we argue that instances of wishful thinking can be fruitfully characterized in terms of the mechanisms that generate them and the problems associated with them. We highlight the array of mechanisms associated with wishful thinking, as well as the fact that it can be evaluated both from epistemic and ethical perspectives. We argue that it is doubtful that a single unified definition of wishful thinking can be developed. Moreover, the concept of wishful thinking can problematically focus excessive attention on individual and epistemic problems in science, to the exclusion of social and ethical problems. A Framework for Understanding Wishful Thinking 1. Introduction In the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, a generation of feminist philosophers of science and epistemologists produced a series of critiques of the ideal of value-free science — the view that non-epistemic values have no legitimate role to play in evaluating scientific hypotheses. In the 1990s, a number of critics put forward countercharges, defenses of the value-free ideal. Wishful thinking and cognate concepts were prominent in these countercharges. As Elisabeth Lloyd noted at the time, "There are several interrelated pronouncements that materialize with mystifying but strict regularity whenever 'feminism' and 'science' are used in the same breath. -
35. Logic: Common Fallacies Steve Miller Kennesaw State University, [email protected]
Kennesaw State University DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University Sexy Technical Communications Open Educational Resources 3-1-2016 35. Logic: Common Fallacies Steve Miller Kennesaw State University, [email protected] Cherie Miller Kennesaw State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/oertechcomm Part of the Technical and Professional Writing Commons Recommended Citation Miller, Steve and Miller, Cherie, "35. Logic: Common Fallacies" (2016). Sexy Technical Communications. 35. http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/oertechcomm/35 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Open Educational Resources at DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sexy Technical Communications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@Kennesaw State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Logic: Common Fallacies Steve and Cherie Miller Sexy Technical Communication Home Logic and Logical Fallacies Taken with kind permission from the book Why Brilliant People Believe Nonsense by J. Steve Miller and Cherie K. Miller Brilliant People Believe Nonsense [because]... They Fall for Common Fallacies The dull mind, once arriving at an inference that flatters the desire, is rarely able to retain the impression that the notion from which the inference started was purely problematic. ― George Eliot, in Silas Marner In the last chapter we discussed passages where bright individuals with PhDs violated common fallacies. Even the brightest among us fall for them. As a result, we should be ever vigilant to keep our critical guard up, looking for fallacious reasoning in lectures, reading, viewing, and especially in our own writing. None of us are immune to falling for fallacies.