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Interannual Variability of Climatology and Tropical Cyclone Tracks in North Atlantic and Western North Pacific

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Interannual Variability of Climatology and Tropical Cyclone Tracks in North Atlantic and Western North Pacific ABSTRACT YAN, TINGZHUANG. Interannual variability of climatology and tropical cyclone tracks in North Atlantic and Western North Pacific. (Under the direction of Lian Xie.) The spatial-temporal variability of tropical cyclone tracks and their possible association with tropical cyclone landfall frequency along the United States East Coast and China East Coast are studied using Principle Component Analysis of tropical cyclone Track Density Function (TDF). Results show that North Atlantic (NA) hurricane TDF is strongly modulated by El Niño-South Oscillation, the tropical Atlantic SST dipole Mode (DM), North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. Dominant Modes of Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon TDF demonstrate strong correlation with spring and winter snow cover (SC) over the Qinghai and Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Results provide a foundation for the construction of statistical models, which project the annual number of tropical cyclone landfall along the East Coast of the United States and the coast of China. Analysis for 1990 and 2004 NA hurricane seasons revealed that the substantial variability of tropical Atlantic SST DM is a dominate factor affecting the hurricane track patterns. Study for 1978 and 2001 typhoon cases in the WNP demonstrated that the QTP SC was responsible for the differentiation in the number of landfall typhoon events in the WNP. A schematic diagram was proposed to illustrate the linkage between the DM and the NA hurricane track patterns. Accumulated gain or deficit in the surface radiation associated with the QTP SC imposes a long memory in the East Asian climate system. Variations in heat budget change the large-scale zonal circulation and further modulate the seasonal position and strength of East Asian subtropical high. A possible physical link to connect the QTP snow cover and the WNP typhoon track patterns was therefore proposed. Interannual Variability of Climatology and Tropical Cyclone Tracks in North Atlantic and Western North Pacific By Tingzhuang Yan A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty of North Carolina State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy MARINE, EARTH AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Raleigh, 2006 APPROVED BY ______________________ ______________________ Dr. Leonard J. Pietrafesa Dr. John M. Morrison ______________________ ______________________ Dr. Frederick Semazzi Dr. Lian Xie (Chair of Advisory Committee) DEDICATION To My Beloved Family: My wife: Saihua Liu My son: Michael Yan My daughter: Janet Yan ii BIOGRAPHY Tingzhuang Yan was born on December 10, 1961 in Qingdao, a beautiful beach city, in Shandong Province, China. He spent most of his childhood with his grandparents in a small village, China, where left him full of sweetest memory. In 1983, he graduated from Mathematics Department of Nankai University, Tianjin, China, and worked with a computer company for three years. In 1986, he began his graduate study at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, supervised by Professor Bingxian Guan and Professor Xuechuan Weng. He got his Master of Science degree in physical oceanography in 1989 and worked in the Institute for another seven years. Thirteen papers were published in Chinese academic journal and magazines during this time of period. In 1997, he was enrolled into Ph.D. program at the Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU supervised by Dr. Lian Xie and Dr. Tom Hopkins. On December 2000, he got his Master of Science degree in Computer Science in NCSU and worked at Duke University for a couple of months. In August 2001, he resumed his Ph.D. study under the supervision of Dr. Lian Xie. During this period of time, he published three papers in U.S.A. journals, one paper accepted and two papers are in review. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like first to express my sincerest thanks and highest appreciation to my academic advisor and Committee Chairman Dr. Lian Xie for his kindness, patience and motivational support to this study. Dr. Xie is not only my academic advisor but my best friend as well. I am also extremely grateful to my advisory committee member, Dr. Leonard J. Pietrafesa, who provided many insightful suggestions to this study and secured funds to ensure the success of this research. I would also like to thank my committee members Drs. Fredrick Semazzi and John Morrison, for their encouragement, valuable and helpful discussions. I would also like to thank Dr. Ping-Tung Shaw for his help on EOF analysis. I would like to extend my appreciation to colleagues in the Coastal Fluid Dynamic Lab (CFDL): Dr. Machuan Peng, Dr. Jin, Lin, Dr. Shaowu Bao, Dr. Shiqiu Peng, Xiaoming Liu, Xuejin Zhang, Huiqing Liu, Meng Xia, Peng Su, Binyu Wang, Xiaohui Shi and Yanyun Liu for their generous assistance. This study supported by the National Science Foundation, WOCE AIMS program and U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Grant Award Number NAO3NES4400015 through a Cooperative Agreement (Climate & Weather Impacts on Society and the Environment) via the Charleston Coastal Services Center and the National Climatic Data Center. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ……………………………………………………………………...…………ix List of Figures ……………………………………………………………………………….xii Part I - Track Patterns of North Atlantic Hurricanes and Western North Pacific Typhoons 1. Introduction 1.1 Statement of Problem …………………………………………………………………...1 1.2 Scientific Background ….…………………………………………………………….…2 1.2.1 North Atlantic Hurricanes ……………...…………………………………… ….…5 1.2.2 Western North Pacific Typhoons…...………………………………………………..7 1.3 Objective and Tasks...……………………………………………………………………..9 1.4 Hypothesis…………………………………………………………………………….….10 1.5 Dissertation Overview......……………………………………………………………….10 2. Data and Methodology…...………………………………………………………….…………..12 3. North Atlantic Hurricanes 3.1 Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Dominant EOF Components of Hurricane Track Density Function (HTDF) .......……………………………………………………….15 3.2 Hurricane track patterns associated with dominant HTDF EOF components……………….19 3.3 Factors Associated with the First Three EOF Components of the HTDF and the Interannual Variability of Hurricane Tracks…..……………………………………………..22 v 3.4 Seasonal Prediction of Landfall Frequency of North Atlantic Hurricanes 3.4.1 Factors Associated with Hurricane Landfall Frequency on the East Coast of the United States.……………………………………………………………………………..36 3.4.2 Poisson Regression and Jacknife Procedure….…………………………………….…….38 3.4.3 Reconstruction of Hurricane Landfall Frequency from Leading EOF Modes of HTDF...40 3.4.4 Probabilistic Prediction of Annual Landfall Atlantic Hurricane Frequency……………..43 3.4.5 Alternative Interpretation of the Predicted Probability…………………………………...55 3.5 Conclusions......……………………………………………………………………….……...58 3.6 References……………………………………………………………………………………60 4. Western North Pacific Typhoons 4.1 Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Dominant EOF Components of Typhoon Track Density Function (TTDF)………..……………………………………...…………………...69 4.2 Rotation of the Empirical Eignvectors………………………….……………………………71 4.3 Total/Landfall Typhoon Frequency and the Leading TTDF EOF Modes…...……………....75 4.4 Track Patterns Associated with Dominant TTDF EOF Components……………..…....……77 4.5 Climate Factors Associated with Dominant EOF Components of TTDF…………………...80 4.6 Landfall Typhoon Prediction on East China Coast 4.6.1 Predictor Selection……………...…………………………………………………….104 4.6.2 Prediction Schemes………...…………………………………………………….…...107 4.6.3 Model Prediction and Discussion……………………………………...……………..108 4.7 Conclusions...………………………………………………………………………….…....111 4.8 References…………………………………………………………………………………..113 vi Part II - Case and Composite Studies 5. Case Study I - The 1990 and 2004 North Atlantic (NA) Hurricane Seasons 5.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………...123 5.2 Data Sources...……………………………………………………………………………..124 5.3 Summary of 1990 and 2004 North Atlantic Hurricane Activity..…………………………125 5.4 Environmental Conditions Associated with 1990 and 2004 Hurricane Seasons………….129 5.5 Intraseasonal Variability of Hurricanes in 1990 and 2004………………………..…….…155 5.6 Summary and Discussion..……………………………………………………….………..157 5.7 References…………………………………………………………………………………163 6. Case Study II - The 1978 and 2001 North Western Pacific (WNP) Typhoon Seasons 6.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………..171 6.2 Data Sources…...………………………………………………………………………….171 6.3 Summary of 1978 and 2001 Typhoon Seasons…………………………....……………...172 6.4 Environmental Conditions Related to 1978 and 2001 Typhoon Seasons………….……...177 6.5 Summary and Discussion.…………………………………………………………………189 6.6 References………………………………………………………………………….……...193 7. Composite Study 7.1 Introduction………..………………………………………………………………………..194 7.2 Data Sources...…………..………………………………………………………………….196 7.3 Tropical Atlantic SST Dipole Mode and Its Association with 500hPa Geopotential Height (GHT) over the North Atlantic Ocean...……….………..…………………………196 7.4 QTP Snow Cover and 500hPa GHT over Western North Pacific and East Asian vii Continent……………………………………………………..…………………………….204 7.5 Summary……………………………………………………………...…………………….213 7.6 References…………………………………………………………………...……………...214 Appendix A The Interannual and Decadal Signals of Tropical Atlantic Dipole Mode...……………….216 viii LIST OF TABLES 3.3.1 Correlation between HTDF EOF components and climate factors (Coefficient exceeds 95% confidence level if |R| > 0.261, exceeds 99% confidence level if |R| > 0.340. Red color number represents correlation excesses 95% confidence level) …………………………..23
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