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EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY SOCIAL FABRIC: MARCH 2021 Elizabeth Glazer, A NEW MODEL Former Director of the City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice FOR PUBLIC

Patrick Sharkey, Princeton University SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS The Square One Project aims to incubate new thinking on our response to , promote more effective strategies, and contribute to a new narrative of justice in America.

Learn more about the Square One Project at squareonejustice.org

The Executive Session was created with support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation as part of the Safety and Justice Challenge, which seeks to reduce over-incarceration by changing the way America thinks about and uses jails. 03 07 16

INTRODUCTION THE OLD MODEL THE NEW MODEL

28 35 50

2020: A YEAR OF CRISIS THE OPPORTUNITY CONCLUSION AHEAD 51 52 60

ENDNOTES REFERENCES ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 60 61

AUTHORS’ NOTES MEMBERS OF THE EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY 02 SOCIAL FABRIC: A NEW MODEL FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1: CHANGE IN RATES FROM 1985–2020 IN THE FIVE LARGEST US CITIES 09

FIGURE 2: 12

FIGURE 3: FELONY AND MISDEMEANOR ARRESTS IN NEW YORK CITY, 1993–2020 14

FIGURE 4: NEW YORK CITY STOP AND FRISK ANNUAL ENCOUNTERS, 2002–2019 15

FIGURE 5: NEW YORK CITY JAIL POPULATION, 1993–2020 20

FIGURE 6: INDEX CRIME IN NEW YORK CITY 25

FIGURE 7: SHOOTINGS AND ARRESTS FOR GUN VIOLENCE IN 2020 31

FIGURE 8: SHOOTINGS AND IN NEW YORK CITY, 1993–2020 33

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1: CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM PERCENT CHANGES, 1993–2020 27

TABLE 2: NEW YORK CITY BUDGET AND WORK METRICS BY AGENCY, FY14 AND FY20 39

TABLE 3: COST OF NEW YORK CITY JUSTICE AGENCIES BY UNIT OF WORK, FY14 AND FY20 41

TABLE 4: NEW YORK CITY NEIGHBORHOODS WITH HIGHEST NUMBER OF SHOOTINGS, 1993, 2019, AND 2020 44

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INTRODUCTION

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“After decades of relying on aggressive, zero-tolerance policing designed to dominate city streets, New York City was moving away from police enforcement and criminal justice system operations as the exclusive responses to ...”

“The new model is driven by the ideal of integration, and relies on weaving together a social fabric composed of residents and community institutions, upheld by the social supports that government budgets are intended to nurture.”

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It is hard to remember what New York City was This intrusion had sharpened cynicism, especially like back in February of 2020, before a virus tore in communities of color, as to how much justice through its neighborhoods, demonstrations took or safety the system delivered. over city streets, -geared police officers confronted New Yorkers in encounters streamed The change was gradual and incomplete, but to the world, and a surge of shootings led to several data points suggest the new model a summer of violence unlike any other in recent was working. Crime declined as the city’s years. But it is important to think back. incarcerated population fell to a rate that more resembled the dramatically lower rates of the New York City, we argue, was taking gradual nations of Western Europe than the United States, steps toward a new model of public safety and and judges began to use different approaches to community strength. After decades of relying ensure accountability. Arrests also had dropped on aggressive, zero-tolerance policing designed significantly over time, the New York City Police to dominate city streets, the city was moving Department (NYPD) had mostly ended the use of away from police enforcement and criminal stop, question, and frisk, and prosecutors had justice system operations as the exclusive started to exercise their discretion to focus more responses to violent crime. It was slowly turning on serious crime. toward a “lighter touch” approach that relied on evidence-informed, theory-based strategies, like As this lighter touch approach took hold, creating vibrant public spaces and summer youth conditions in the city’s most disadvantaged employment, and toward community-oriented neighborhoods did not deteriorate as some institutions and residents as central actors in the had predicted they would. Inequality in New effort to build vital, safe neighborhoods. Those York City remains staggering, but strategies were part of an integrated approach fell gradually over the 2010s, and wages rose to increase safety while decreasing the reach of fastest for workers near the bottom of the wage the justice system into the lives of New Yorkers. distribution (New York City Mayor’s Office for

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Economic Opportunity 2020). The dropout rate In this essay we lay out a model of public for public high school students had fallen to safety that shifts away from law enforcement about half of what it was in 2007 (New York City and toward residents and local organizations, Department of Education 2021). And violence supported by access to organized government remained at a historically low level. Among more services, as the primary mode of achieving than 8.5 million people scattered around the wellbeing. The old model relied on the five boroughs of New York, 319 were murdered surveillance, , and removal of in 2019, a fraction of the rate of other large disadvantaged, marginalized New Yorkers from American cities and a fraction of New York City’s the city’s streets for a wide variety of low-level own murder rate decades before. violations. The new model is driven by the ideal of integration, and relies on weaving together This history, though recent, may seem a distant a social fabric composed of residents and memory after everything the city went through community institutions, upheld by the social in 2020, but we believe it is crucially important supports that government budgets are intended to interpreting the events of the past year and to nurture. Importantly, the new model rests to developing a plan to move forward. The not on lofty ideals nor on the prevailing political tumult and trauma of 2020 reveal both how whims of the moment, but on a body of the most fragile and limited the city’s progress was, and rigorous evidence available. Law enforcement how flawed the justice system is as the central should continue to play a role in this new model, approach to achieving safety. But what the but the police (and other actors and institutions city has experienced also adds urgency, and within the criminal justice system) need to be provides an opportunity, for a transformative seen as just one part of a larger, collective, and change in the coming years. COVID-19 has civilian effort to build vibrant, safe neighborhoods forced a distillation of the choices before us, through a heterogenous mix of strategies. We and the fiscal crisis that has followed offers an put forward a proposal to re-orient deployment opportunity to reshape how cities achieve safety of government resources and a demonstration and thriving neighborhoods. project as tangible steps toward implementation.

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THE OLD MODEL

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From the late 1960s through the mid-1990s, New York was one of many major cities that went through a period of crisis marked by widespread joblessness, outmigration of the middle class, concentrated poverty, retrenchment of social services, and rising violent crime.

Central city communities were abandoned an impact on city life, it was also the nature by the federal government; resources were of the violence taking place. A collective extracted; schools, housing developments, feeling of desperation and confusion took churches, parks, and playgrounds emptied hold as seemingly minor incidents escalated out or crumbled; crack cocaine appeared; to violence, and as entire neighborhoods and neighborhoods began to fall apart. The seemed to be taken over by groups who were places left behind were plagued by violence. willing to use force for any reason.

The national murder rate rose from just The abandonment of central city over 4 murders for every 100,000 residents neighborhoods, which came in the form in the early 1960s to over 10 murders for of federal and state disinvestment, every 100,000 residents in the late 1980s austerity , and migration to the (Sharkey 2018) (see Figure 1). In New York suburbs, also came with a new approach City alone, more than 2,000 people were to dealing with violence, characterized murdered annually in the first few years of by punishment (Phillips-Fein 2017). The the 1990s, a rate of over 30 murders for every national imprisonment rate had hovered 100,000 New Yorkers (see Figure 2). It was around 100 state and federal prisoners for not simply the pervasiveness of the violence every 100,000 Americans for most of the and the omnipresence of fear that had such country’s history, and then it skyrocketed

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FIGURE 1 USA NYC

Los Angeles Change in murder Sources: New York City’s Mayor’s Office of rates from 1985–2020 Criminal Justice 2019; in the Five Largest FBI UCR 2019; Crivelli US Cities. 2021; Rector 2021; Chicago Philadelphia Police Department 2021; and D’Onofrio and Wall 2021.

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to over 500 per 100,000 beginning in 1970 and dealers, who resort to violence to defend continued to rise to levels unprecedented their territory. Significantly for subsequent in U.S. history and unmatched across policing trends, the authors suggested that the world (Western 2006). Prosecutors the policing of social norms and “deviant aggressively pursued the harshest sentences behavior,” often activated by calls from possible, leading to rapidly rising rates of private residents, was the best antidote to incarceration. Federal, state, and local these conditions of disorder. As head of the resources contributed to bolstering police , Bratton took these lessons forces and political leaders gave police the and applied them both to the physical charge to take over city streets, sometimes conditions of the subways (graffiti) and to with brute force (Pfaff 2017). the activity that he believed contributed to the breakdown in social controls This model was refined in New York City. (turnstile jumping) (Zimring 2011). In 1990, the high-water mark for murders in the city, became head In 1994, Mayor made Bratton of the city’s transit police, at that time head of the NYPD and Bratton brought separate from the NYPD. If the streets above with him this new style of policing, which ground were dangerous and disorderly, gradually expanded beyond its focus on the subways seemed entirely outside the simply the physical conditions—the “broken control of any formal authority. Walls of windows”—and turned into a zero-tolerance subway cars were covered with graffiti, approach of stopping or arresting every trains broke down regularly, and doors didn’t possible ‘trouble-maker’ on the street and open. Bratton’s close adviser was George below ground. The style of aggressive policing Kelling, a criminologist most celebrated introduced by Bratton gave force to an idea of for an Atlantic Monthly article he wrote in satisfying simplicity, if disputed veracity: not 1982 with James Q. Wilson, called “Broken only is crime controllable, but police actions Windows.” Wilson and Kelling argued that are central to that control. As crime dropped visible cues of disorder, like a broken year after year, every other measure of police window, provide a signal that the space activity rose (New York State Division of is out of control, invite more violations Criminal Justice Services 2020a; New York of social norms, and begin a process State Division of Criminal Justice Services leading to lawlessness and urban decay. 2021; City of New York 2021). This cycle, if not stopped early, escalates into bigger problems—a broken window While violence fell rapidly over the 1990s, invites squatters, who give way to crack the debate still rages as to how much credit

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this new style of policing and criminal (see Figure 2). It landed Bratton twice on justice deserves (Zimring 2011; Meares the cover of Time magazine, and it led to 2014). At the time, however, the stunning a police-centric model of crime control that drop in crime, the “New York Miracle,” was was quickly adopted by cities across the miraculous indeed. From 1990 to 1998 the country and the world (Goldman 2014). annual number of murders fell 70 percent, from 2,245 to 649, the sharpest drop in murders that the city has ever experienced

THE STYLE OF AGGRESSIVE POLICING INTRODUCED BY BRATTON GAVE FORCE TO AN IDEA OF SATISFYING SIMPLICITY, IF DISPUTED VERACITY: NOT ONLY IS CRIME CONTROLLABLE, BUT POLICE ACTIONS ARE CENTRAL TO THAT CONTROL

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FIGURE 2

New York City Source: Wikipedia 2021. Murders.

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OVER THE NEXT 30 YEARS, THE USE OF POLICE FOR MANY CIVIC FUNCTIONS AND THE DEFERENCE TO THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AS THE PRIMARY TOOL TO FIGHT CRIME BECAME THE DEFAULT APPROACH TO SAFETY IN THE MINDS OF AMERICANS AND THE ACTIONS OF THEIR ELECTED LEADERS

The conceptual breakthrough—that of uniformed police officers on the street police can control crime—combined with increased from 26,000 to almost 40,000.1 the apparent success achieved through Meanwhile, felony and misdemeanor arrests strategic and nimble deployment of a force hit a recent high of 312,399 in 2010 (see presence in every neighborhood, 24 hours Figure 3) and other indications of the growing a day, 7 days a week, provided a powerful presence of enforcement in the lives of New reason for New York City’s mayors to rely Yorkers were reflected in the rise of stops on the police to deal with crime. Soon, to almost 700,000 in 2011 (see Figure 4) and police were performing other functions that summonses to 540,000 in 2010 (New York might have more naturally been considered City’s Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2019). the province of service agencies. It became These actions were largely concentrated in natural for mayors to use police authority communities of color. to address other symptoms of “disorder,” such as the presence of unhoused people This style of intrusive policing had on the streets or the visible distress of a significant and deleterious effect on addiction and mental illness (MacDonald, residents’ views of cops in the most heavily Kaba, Rosner, Vise, Weiss, Brittner, policed neighborhoods (Brunson and Wade Skerker, Dickey, and Venters 2015). As the 2019; Tyler, Fagan, and Geller 2014). Even as lines blurred between social distress and violence fell, anger and resentment toward criminal behavior, so did the respective the police and the city government grew as roles of city agencies and the police. Many young men of color were stopped and frisked mayors were content to have a clear answer at exponentially rising rates and made to to the problem of crime, and the price of feel like suspects whenever they walked this approach would not become fully visible down the street. Thousands of New Yorkers until later. were behind bars or otherwise enmeshed in the criminal justice system, many for minor Over the next 30 years, this approach to offenses (Kohler-Hausmann 2018). Separate policing and the deference to the criminal from its impact on crime, widespread justice system as the primary tool to fight cynicism and resentment toward the NYPD, crime became the default approach to especially in communities of color, is safety in the minds of Americans and the a central part of the legacy of the old model actions of their elected leaders. Crime of violence prevention (Geller and Fagan fell, but the presence and the activity of 2019; Bell 2016; CBS New York 2019). police grew. Murder declined by 86 percent between 1990 and 2019, but the number

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FIGURE 3 Felony arrests Misdemeanor arrests

Felony and Source: New York State Division of Criminal Misdemeanor Justice Services 2020a. Arrests in New York City, Note: 1993–2019 data 1993-2020. are from above source. 2020 arrests are from a non-published monthly NYPD Criminal Justice Bureau December 2020 report received by Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice via email: “Arrest/ Arraignment Indicators.”

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FIGURE 4

New York City Stop Source: City of New York 2021. and Frisk Annual Encounters 2002–2019.

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THE NEW MODEL

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Vowing to end the “tale of two cities,” ran as a champion of the city’s poor and became mayor in January 2014.

Many credited the success of his campaign first police commissioner, Bill Bratton, the to his relentless and passionate attack on the father of the very stop and frisk policies that overuse of police stops and their pernicious a federal court had ruled unconstitutional effect on the health of families and (Goodman 2013). The choice represented communities of color. A proud “progressive,” a tension that was to dog his mayoralty. For de Blasio promised a government that looked some of de Blasio’s supporters, Bratton’s like the faces of the city, attuned to needs appointment was a realpolitik moment to of the working poor, including affordable quiet critics and provide a Nixon-in-China housing and universal pre- (De Blasio 2013). credibility to implement the reform platform. For others, it raised a reasonable doubt The prospect of a new approach, scaling as to the new mayor’s commitment to the back the presence of the police and scaling progressive policies on which he ran. This up access to opportunity, brought hope tension, between the mayor’s inclination to some but sparked anxiety in others. to defer to the police on public safety policy An array of voices, from the police unions and his acknowledgement of the harms to the city’s elites, expressed a steady inflicted, particularly on communities of drumbeat of concern that de Blasio would color, by a police dominant approach became be unable to keep the city safe with his a flash point in 2020 as the pressures of the “soft” approach to crime (Rosario and pandemic increased. O’Neill 2013; Goldenberg 2013; Goldman 2014; Saul 2014). De Blasio chose for his

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PUTTING THE “PUBLIC” BACK IN “PUBLIC SAFETY”2

The new administration moved quickly a community centered approach to wellbeing to reshape the problem to be solved as are diverse and move beyond handcuffs and not simply “how to reduce crime” but “how jail. The new approach recognizes that the to create safety” (Glazer 2019). “To create criminal justice system—police, prosecutors, safety” signaled an approach that would courts, jails, and prisons—has a role in be less about just the absence of crime, creating safety and that the hydraulics and more about the presence of wellbeing of the system require deep coordination and opportunity, a strategy “owned” by among all the decision-makers. But the community and not just police. This wasn’t criminal justice system is just a piece— just semantics: it was a shift away from done right, an ever-shrinking piece—of policies of negation (arrest and incarcerate) a larger civic enterprise to build a thriving and toward policies of creation (strengthen city. Both of these approaches—creating family, nurture neighborhood connections safety by building neighborhoods fueled by and networks, transform public spaces, and coordinated civic goods, and reshaping the open up jobs). uses of the criminal justice system to limit its sometimes-toxic effect, particularly on If “reducing crime” is about the operations of New Yorkers of color—were key to building the criminal justice system, “creating safety” a new model for public safety over the next centers on a community-led and government seven years (Glazer 2019; New York City’s supported enterprise. The solutions in Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2019).

THE NEW APPROACH RECOGNIZES THAT THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM HAS A ROLE IN CREATING SAFETY BUT IT IS JUST A PIECE—DONE RIGHT, AN EVER-SHRINKING PIECE—OF A LARGER CIVIC ENTERPRISE TO BUILD A THRIVING CITY

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SHRINKING THE FOOTPRINT

This new approach had a dramatic impact: urgent questions, powered by the newly from 2013 to 2019 the city experienced organized and heard voices of the formerly a massive reduction in arrests and jail incarcerated, around whether jail was the population, even as crime continued to right place or the criminal justice system decline (New York City’s Mayor’s Office of the right tool for the many people who Criminal Justice 2019). The changes were became enmeshed in it. the result of a confluence of factors. With crime at the lowest it had been since the Between 2014 and 2020, a broad array 1960s, decision-makers were freer to look of reforms, developed with the advice more closely at solutions that did not rely of hundreds of people from formerly exclusively on the harshest measures of incarcerated people to judges, resulted in the criminal justice system (New York City a drop of 70 percent in the jail population Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2020a). (New York City’s Mayor’s Office of Criminal At the same time, the overuse of police Justice 2020b; New York City’s Mayor’s Office powers—particularly in the growth of stop of Criminal Justice 2019) (see Figure 5).4 and frisk—had resulted in an almost universal These reforms included programs that acknowledgement that the policies of the judges could offer defendants instead of jail; last 30 years had come at too great a cost. “crisis intervention” training for cops who The heavy reliance on police and the justice encountered people with behavioral health system bred a cynicism in communities of issues; and supportive housing to interrupt color about the efficacy and fairness of the the cycle of those shifting from shelters to system. This estrangement fed a vicious emergency rooms to jail. The mayor pledged cycle where victims of crime often would not to close the city’s jails, located on an island in testify and jurors and grand jurors were often the East River, and instead to build humane skeptical of law enforcement witnesses facilities for a significantly reduced number (New York State Division of Criminal Justice of people in the city centers, close to courts, Services 2020b).3 Finally, there were families, and services (City of New York 2017).

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FIGURE 5

New York City Source: New York City Mayor’s Office of Jail Population, Criminal Justice 2021b. 1993–2020.

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Policing also changed, accelerated not just of police into the everyday lives of people by the mayor’s campaign commitments, of color and shifted away from police power but also by the deaths in 2014 of Eric Garner as the dominant approach to order. Stop and in New York City and Michael Brown in frisks, which had dropped significantly in the Ferguson, Missouri, the two events less than two years before de Blasio took office, now a month apart and just a few months into dropped even more precipitously so that by de Blasio’s first year in office. The video of the end of 2019 there were 93 percent fewer Garner’s death pulled back the curtain, with stops than there had been at the height a shocking transparency, on the banal use of the practice (City of New York 2021) of force that can accompany some routine (see Figure 4). police actions. It was an elbow to the face of every New Yorker, insistently asking: is Marijuana arrests—a bellwether of disparate selling loosies worth a man’s life? How and enforcement where evidence shows equal when should police exercise their unique use among Black people and White people— privilege to use up to deadly force? When dropped 90 percent (New York City’s does police violence violate the implicit Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2018a). agreement between residents and their A new statute offered the option for a civil government about how, when, and against ticket instead of a criminal summons for whom it may be used? At what point is the an array of low-level violations, from being right to use force forfeited or does the in a park after dark to drinking in public, balance change so the social compact must leading to a 94 percent reduction in criminal be rewritten? These were the questions that summonses (New York City’s Mayor’s Office underlay all the changes to come but they of Criminal Justice 2018b). And the almost broke through again with intense insistence 800,000 warrants issued more than ten in the summer of 2020. years before for those same lower level offenses were wiped out (New York City’s Garner’s death added urgency to a set of Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2016; reforms underway that retrenched the reach CBS New York 2017).

FROM 2013 TO 2019 THE CITY EXPERIENCED A MASSIVE REDUCTION IN ARRESTS AND JAIL POPULATION, EVEN AS CRIME CONTINUED TO DECLINE

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BUILDING COMMUNITY

As the operations and size of the justice Haven and East New York are familiar system changed, a new community-based names in a rollcall of distress that starts and prevention-oriented strategy to reduce with high unemployment, low educational violence was emerging that provided a vivid achievement, low birth rates, and high rates counterpoint to the past thirty years of of asthma and diabetes and ends in violence police-centric, after-the-harm approach. (Data2Go 2021). As many commentators have Two examples, the city’s Crisis Management noted, these social conditions were spurred System (CMS) and the Mayor’s Action Plan by decades of policies that marked these for Neighborhood Safety (MAP), both communities as places of disinvestment, focus on building on the strengths of including redlining, school segregation, and neighborhoods and residents. Both have housing discrimination, that intentionally demonstrated track records in reducing barred people of color from access to civic crime and increasing safety. Each approach goods. Most recently, high rates of COVID-19 is rooted in a long history of theory and infection and death have been added to common sense that shows that people obey this suffering (New York City Department the law when they are respected and have of Health 2020). voice, believe decision-makers are fair, decisions transparent and thus legitimate Violence affects everything, rending families (legitimacy); and that connection among and neighbors and imposing unbearable neighbors strengthens social bonds that trauma and wariness that threads through stop harmful behavior in the first place the lives of residents. Its effects on every (collective efficacy) (Tyler 2006; Sampson aspect of life is perhaps most telling in and Wilson 2013). the reduction in school achievement when a student is exposed to violence (Sharkey, CMS is a federation of approximately Schwartz, Ellen, and Lacoe 2014). Trauma 60 organizations operating in the and wariness are also bound up in the 25 neighborhoods that account for acute ambivalence to police action: why 60 percent of the city’s shootings (New York don’t you respond quickly when I call about City Mayor’s Office to Prevent Gun Violence a shooting? Why are you hassling my son 2021). For decades, gun violence has on his way to school? There is a vicious settled with grim regularity in the same cycle of disaffection from police—fueled few neighborhoods. Brownsville, Mott by neighborhood perceptions that police

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are unresponsive and ineffective—that and will enforce. Other activities like depresses the inclination to call the police. occupying corners and walking through This spurs further distrust, including failure streets most plagued by gun violence to report or bear witness, again undermining engage the entire neighborhood with this trust in police efficacy (Brunson 2020; same goal of re-enforcing positive norms. 2016-2017). Support for everyone bound together in the neighborhood fabric is paramount (Butts CMS recognizes both neighborhood trauma and Delgado 2017; Delgado, Alsabahi, and and the intimacy of violence, with victims Butts 2017). Independent evaluations of CMS and perpetrators often locked in cycles of have shown that gun violence dropped by attack and retaliation within a few square 30 percent in the neighborhoods where it blocks (Butts, Roman, Bostwick, and Porter is in place, compared to similarly-situated 2015). Non-profits, closely associated with neighborhoods without it (Delgado, Alsabahi, the people in the neighborhood they serve, Wolff, Alexander, Cobar, and Butts 2017). employ violence interrupters and mental health workers to deliver services to heal MAP operates in the public housing the multiple effects of the violence. The developments that drive 20 percent of the “interrupters” develop deep connections violent crime in public housing. It focuses with people who may be on the to on the conditions that incubate violence violence and, supported by neighborhood by bringing together a vibrant assemblage information about when disputes are of “experts:” residents, cops, staff from parks, developing and where retaliations will take sanitation workers, homeless services agency place, are able to “interrupt” the trajectory representatives, and a range of leaders and before it becomes violent. staff from city and nonprofit agencies and community-based organizations. At regular Additionally, a set of public actions meetings, referred to as “NeighborhoodStat,” underscore the community’s condemnation this group comes together as equals using of violence. Every time there is a shooting, a disciplined and cooperative look at data the neighborhood organizes a vigil to and lived experience to pool and implement which all are welcome and many come: solutions, ranging from redesigning public neighborhood residents, the bereaved, spaces and engaging youth in community representatives from non-profits, and programming, to ensuring trash piling outside elected officials. It is a moment of support a housing development is picked up. Among and reflection, a physical expression of some key and lasting strategies have been the peace that the neighborhood expects the systematic expansion of summer youth

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MAP’S APPROACH TO USING PHYSICAL SPACE AS AN INTENTIONAL CONNECTOR AND MAKING THE STREET AND THE STOOP A COMMUNAL “FRONT YARD” HAS PROVED ANOTHER AVENUE TO CREATING WELLBEING IN A TIME OF STRESS AND TRAUMA

employment to every young person eligible in As the neighborhood structures were the MAP developments, and a community-led strengthening, starting with investments process to change physical spaces to invite in 2014, the police also offered a change positive interaction among residents and in outlook. Bratton, a savvy politician the surrounding neighborhood (New York as well as an experienced police City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2018c; commander, understood the damage that Pearl 2019). the over-policing of the previous decades had inflicted on communities of color The connections, networks, and supports (Bratton 2015). And he understood, as a that grew up to execute on the solutions practical matter, that trust had to be the developed by NeighborhoodStat have proved foundation of any policing strategy he adaptable and durable. During the pandemic, might introduce: without trust, people these networks have nimbly deployed, don’t come forward as witnesses, don’t providing front line services such as food, serve as jurors, don’t vote to convict on personal protective equipment, and wellness the evidence. Under the slogan: “fair for checks on the elderly and other vulnerable everyone, everywhere,” he implemented residents. As the pandemic has confined a “neighborhood policing” strategy deploying people to their neighborhoods and blocks, an additional 1,600 cops whose job was to MAP’s approach to using physical space as an walk the beat, interact with residents, and intentional connector and making the street build personal relationships as a way to and the stoop a communal “front yard” has ensure cooperation from the community proved another avenue to creating wellbeing (City of New York 2015). Demonstrating the in a time of stress and trauma (New York City gap between the sentiments expressed in Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice N.d.). the streets where CMS and MAP operated and the rooms where the mayor and the Results from an independent evaluation police commissioner worked, the mayor had show a significant drop in crime and an this to offer on the announcement: “It will increase in social cohesion, providing not take long for New Yorkers to realize this some evidence that MAP can help establish is what they’ve been waiting for. This is what a durable peace when residents have strong they’ve been wanting for years” (Russo 2015). ties to one another, access to government It was a several hundred million dollar resources, a voice in matters of importance, on how to bridge the gap between police and trust in the fairness of government and community (Russo 2015). The summer decisions (Delgado, Moreno, Espinobarros, of 2020 showed how very transactional that and Butts 2020). relationship was.

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450000 1994 430460

400000

350000

300000 NUR O IND ND IONT CRI 250000

200000

150000 153543 2012 111335 100000 95549 2020 50000 41138 35551

0 2011 1997 2017 1999 1995 1996 1998 2019 2012 2015 2010 2016 2018 2001 1993 2013 1994 2014 2007 2009 2020 2002 2005 2000 2006 2008 2003 2004

FIGURE 6 Index crime Violent crime (subset of index) Index Crime in Sources: New York State Division of Criminal New York City. Justice Services 2021 and New York City Open Data 2021.

EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY 26 SOCIAL FABRIC: A NEW MODEL FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS

AS 2020 BEGAN, THERE WAS noticed as national model (New York City A PALPABLE TURN FROM A POLICE–AND Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2017; FORCE-CENTRIC MODEL OF SAFETY Pearl 2019). If not yet fully formed, there was a palpable turn from a police–and force- TOWARDS A MODEL IN WHICH SAFETY IS centric model of safety towards a model SECURED THROUGH THE OPPORTUNITIES in which safety is secured through the CIVIL CAN OFFER, GUIDED BY opportunities civil society can offer, guided COMMUNITY ASPIRATIONS by community aspirations.

At the same time, tensions between the police-first and community-first models, As 2020 began, New Yorkers watched crime though submerged, did not disappear. The continue to decline and the operations of police began to chafe under the range of the criminal justice system recede from reforms, resentful that their powers were communities of color. The jails held half as constricted as some “tools” had been taken many people as 7 years before (see Figure 5), off the table (CBS New York 2020). When the and police arrested half as many people and state passed a bail reform statute to take summonsed and stopped about 90 percent effect on the first day of January in 2020, fewer people than in 2013 (see Figure 4). the police attacked, with the full force of Index and violent crime fell 14 percent and the pent-up frustration that stemmed from 12 percent respectively between 2013 and their sense that their power was ebbing 2019 (see Figure 6 and Table 1). It became (Parascandola and Tracy 2020). These were common for local elected officials to the sparks of conflict ready to combust in the demand CMS sites in their districts when plague year to come. violence ticked up and MAP began to be

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TABLE 1

Criminal Justice System Percent Changes, 1993–2020.

Violent crime Index crime Homicides Shooting incidents Jail population (subset of index)

2020 vs 1993 -77% -78% -76% -71% -76%

2020 vs 2011 -12% -10% -10% 1% -64% (2011 had similar shooting numbers to 2020)

2020 vs 2013 -14% -14% 38% 39% -61%

2020 vs 2019 -2% 0% 45% 97% -39%

Sources: New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2021b; New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services 2021; and New York City Open Data 2021.

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2020: A YEAR OF CRISIS

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In the second week of March 2020, the “City that Never Sleeps” went quiet. As COVID-19 tore through New York City’s neighborhoods, hitting the city harder than anywhere else in the country, public life shut down.

New Yorkers retreated into their and quarantine inside. Within three weeks, apartments, commuters and tourists the number of people in jail dropped from stayed home, restaurants and cafes closed. over 5,400—already the lowest population The wail of ambulance sirens provided the since 1953—to 3,800, the lowest since 1946 most audible reminder of the virus that had (New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal overtaken the city. Justice 2020d).

The pandemic distilled to its essence every Even as criminal justice operations slowed, part of city life and every decision of city tensions between the police and community government, stripping down the choices— members of color began to rise. Deployed literally—to life and death. This was true in across the city to enforce social distancing, the criminal justice system as well: police aggressive officer behavior began cropping began to make arrests only for the most up regularly on mobile phone videos serious offenses, prosecutors accepted showing casual use of force frequently only those cases worth the scarce available targeting people of color. In one video, times in court, and courts scaled back to the an officer breaking up a gathering at an bare essentials to keep the system running evening cookout in a predominantly Black (New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal neighborhood, punched a man in the face. Justice 2020c). The danger of COVID-19 Another man in the same neighborhood also prompted a joint effort across multiple was knocked unconscious, following agencies within city and state government a dispute between officers and residents to reduce the number of people in jail in over the lockdown guidelines (Southall order to make space for social distancing 2020).5 In another, officers were shown

EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY 30 SOCIAL FABRIC: A NEW MODEL FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS

throwing a mother to the ground, cuffing As the city burst back to life to protest racial and arresting her while her two-year-old injustice and , gun violence— child watched (Abc7 Eyewitness News 2020). which had already begun to tick up by The scenes reflected a larger pattern of mid-May—rose sharply. In the six weeks unequal enforcement: by May 8th, 81 percent between June 14th and the end of July, of summons for compliance with COVID-19 shootings increased by 192 percent over social distancing protocols had been issued the previous year (New York City Mayor’s to Black and Latinx people. Advocates and Office of Criminal Justice 2020e). The rise others strengthened their calls for “education in violence was not unique to New York. not enforcement,” while videos documenting Almost all major cities experienced a rise police officers’ lax attitude toward wearing in gun violence in the summer months of masks themselves further undermined the 2020, and violence surged in cities including legitimacy of the NYPD in a time of crisis Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and (Meminger and Gonella 2020). Minneapolis (Sharkey 2021).

Already raw with the surfacing of decades- More research will be needed to help explain long racial tensions, the video of George the rise of violence in 2020, a year that Floyd’s brutal death on May 25th ignited the brought about severe hardship and a year city. Within days, large-scale demonstrations in which Americans’ daily routines were all over the five boroughs called for defunding upended. But the rise of violence from the police, with scattered scenes of looting the end of May onward is consistent with and damage to storefronts in parts of the city research showing that violence often rises unused to disruption. The NYPD responded in the aftermath of high-profile incidents with brute force. The images spread across of police violence and the investigations the news and showed police and protests that may follow (Rosenfeld officers in riot gear massed in public places 2016; Devi and Fryer 2020; Rosenfeld and where mostly peaceful protestors gathered, Lopez 2020). Importantly, this work does and captured incidents of violence. While not mean that protests against police some of the violence emanated from cause violence to rise. Rather, it means that protestors, the force used by the NYPD in the aftermath of large-scale protests took center stage as videos, streamed out against police violence, the local social to the world, showed officers slamming order is disrupted and neighborhoods demonstrators to the ground, driving straight are destabilized, creating the conditions through crowds on the street, and kettling for violence to emerge. peaceful protestors into dangerously crowded areas (New York City Department of Investigation 2020).

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700

600

500

NUR O OOTIN ND UN RRT 400

300

200

100

0 O N D

Shootings

Gun arrests

FIGURE 7

Shootings and Source: New York City Police Department 2021b. Arrests for Gun

Violence in 2020. Note: Data compiled from monthly press releases found in above source.

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AT THE SAME TIME THAT NYPD RETREATED But at the same time that NYPD retreated FROM PUBLIC SPACES AND SCALED BACK from public spaces and scaled back enforcement, residents became less ENFORCEMENT, RESIDENTS BECAME willing to cooperate with law enforcement LESS WILLING TO COOPERATE WITH LAW in investigating crime. While the “solve” ENFORCEMENT IN INVESTIGATING CRIME rate for shootings had hovered at about 50–60 percent the previous year, during the pandemic it sunk to around 20 percent and has risen very modestly in the months since This can happen for multiple reasons. Police, June (Dorn 2021). who have been asked to dominate city streets to control violence, often step back The Police Commissioner placed blame and reduce their activity in the aftermath of for the violence on people released from widespread protests (Devi and Fryer 2020). jail during the pandemic, on bail reform, on This took place in New York, as the NYPD the closing of city courts, and on ‘outside pulled back on enforcement, with gun arrests agitators’. Each claim was emphatically and decreasing by 56 percent from May to June conclusively refuted by published facts, even while the number of shootings doubled further eroding the department’s credibility, (see Figure 7). even among its staunchest tabloid supporters (McCarthy, Campanile, and Residents may also “check out” if they feel Feis 2020; New York City Mayor’s Office of like they are not valued members of the city, Criminal Justice 2021a; Rodriguez, Rempel, and may become unwilling to work with city and Watkins 2021). By the end of 2020, government or the police. Evidence suggests the statistics for citywide violence were that this, too, happened in New York City. sobering. The number of murders in the city Establishing lines of communication between rose by 44 percent compared to 2019, and residents and the police on serious the number of shootings rose by 97 percent like shootings had always been a challenge, (see Figure 8; Moore 2021). and was one of the NYPD’s motivations for improving community- police relations.

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5269

5000

4000 NUR O OOTIN ND OICID 3000

1927 2000 1531

1000 1103 462 335

0 2011 1997 2017 1999 1995 1996 1998 2019 2012 2015 2001 2010 2016 2018 1993 2013 1994 2014 2007 2009 2002 2020 2005 2000 2006 2008 2003 2004

FIGURE 8 Shooting incidents Homicides

Shootings and Sources: New York City Mayor’s Office of Homicides in Criminal Justice 2021b; New York City, New York State Division 1993–2020. of Criminal Justice Services 2021; and New York City Police Department 2021c.

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The series of crises that unfolded in major urban centers, has been a policy New York City throughout the year were agenda characterized by disinvestment not unrelated. Many of the communities and punishment, carried out through the hit hardest by COVID-19 were the same institutions of law enforcement and the neighborhoods that experienced a surge criminal justice system (Sharkey 2018). of violence in the summer months (New This is not to say that there have been York City Department of Health 2020; no investments made in low-income New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal communities of color, but rather that there Justice 2020a). The segments of the has never been a sustained approach to city’s population consistently targeted by the challenge of urban inequality through the NYPD, most notably Black and Latinx a durable policy agenda focused on New Yorkers, were the same segments investment in core community institutions, of the population disproportionately like schools, families, health clinics, hospitalized and dying from COVID-19 community centers, and social service (New York City Department of Health 2020). providers. Instead, New York and most The challenges of 2020 may have been other big cities have invested heavily in the unique to this tragic year, but the patterns prison system and the police force, and of disadvantage are old. asked these institutions to solve all of the problems that come bundled together when For the past several decades, the most poverty and disadvantage are concentrated consistent response to the challenges in space. In recent years, New York City brought about by extreme urban was gradually moving away from this old inequality, in New York City and other model of dealing with urban inequality. But 2020 revealed how superficial, limited, and incomplete the changes in the city’s THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A SUSTAINED approach have been, and showed that the APPROACH TO THE CHALLENGE OF URBAN old model hasn’t gone away. INEQUALITY THROUGH A DURABLE POLICY AGENDA FOCUSED ON INVESTMENT IN CORE COMMUNITY INSTITUTIONS, LIKE SCHOOLS, FAMILIES, HEALTH CLINICS, COMMUNITY CENTERS, AND SOCIAL SERVICE PROVIDERS

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THE OPPORTUNITY AHEAD

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The year 2020 brought unfathomable trauma and hardship, and the destruction it wrought has destabilized New York City. But it has also created the opportunity to rethink and reset the city’s approach to challenges like violence and neighborhood stability.

The pandemic provides a chance to rewrite as democratic, respectful, and accountable the book, not just change the font size, on to the people it serves as possible. Although how we secure our safety both because of there is much to do there, our proposal does the structural infirmities and inequities it has not address those important questions. made prominent and because of the fiscal crisis it has created. Instead, we focus on how the framework through which we secure our safety should Our proposal, outlined below, is undergirded shift away from a primary focus on police by a shift in frame, rooted first in civil and the criminal justice system, and toward society—the combined strengths of the a primary focus on the community and people themselves and the government that government services, of which policing is serves them—instead of the criminal justice one piece. This shift is directed toward two system, however much it may be reformed intertwined goals: the reduction of violence (Meares 2017). We recognize that there in New York City and the construction of is much to do to ensure that the criminal strong neighborhoods that promote the justice system—at its best, reparative, not wellbeing of all New Yorkers. We outline the toxic—is as effective, fair, and parsimonious basic components of what an organized, as possible. And there is a well-founded goal-oriented, community-led civic society and urgent interest in understanding what might look like and the effects, short – and role the police, as the most prominent long-term, not just on safety but also on face of the state, should play and what can wellbeing. We then describe a demonstration make policing, as with any civic service, project to help us achieve these goals.

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SHIFTING THE FRAME: PROVIDING CIVIC SERVICES FOR SAFETY AND WELLBEING

Everyone wants to be safe—from the them to like us?” It is the central reason why everyday annoyances of, for example, public police are the wrong stewards of community urination to the wrecking ball of violence. centers and the wrong messengers to For decades, our default response to this youth. It should tell us something that this range of activity has been the police and is not the role they play in White, well to do the criminal justice system. This approach, neighborhoods where resources are plentiful especially at times of crisis, is appealing and networks supported. because police are easily deployed, readily visible, and give politicians and communities It is not just the presence of force, especially the sense that “something is being done.” deadly force, that hangs over the relationship They are present 24 hours a day, each between the police and residents. It is also day of the week, in every neighborhood the use and misuse of force that further and responsive to command, perhaps erodes trust. The events of last summer, one reason their tasks have expanded to as protests against police brutality filled homeless outreach, mental health response, the streets and, ironically, images of police and vaccinations. violence regularly appeared in the media, catapulted into the public eye what many People also want to be safe from government have known for a long time: the relationship overreach and abuse, most vividly captured between residents and police is fragile and in instances of over-policing and even fraught. The most concrete expression violence by police against the people of this frailty in New York City was the (Meares 2019; Barker, Baker, and Watkins “solve” rate for shootings, perhaps better 2021). Conferring the power to use up to viewed as a “cooperation” rate, which sank deadly force on the police, even though from an already low 50 percent to an even a necessary power, corrodes the very more dismal 23 percent (Dorn 2021). Law trust that is essential to the operation of enforcement’s crisis of legitimacy is distilled the justice system. Its presence puts up in this shrinking willingness of residents to an impermeable wall between cops and participate in the justice system. residents because it creates an inherent inequality between the two. As one officer While police presence does have some said: “We arrest people. How can we expect deterrent effect, and swift and certain

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THE JUSTICE SYSTEM BY ITS VERY STRUCTURE ADDRESSES HARMS AFTER THEY OCCUR BUT DOES NOT AND CANNOT AIM TO ITERATIVELY TO “CRIME ZERO” OR MORE ACCURATELY “WELLBEING INFINITY.” IT HAS BEEN AN ATTRACTIVE DEFAULT BECAUSE IT IS FAMILIAR, DEFINABLE, TANGIBLE, AND OPERATIONAL, EVEN IF IMPERFECT. WE HAVE NOT YET BUILT AN EQUIVALENT IN CIVIL SOCIETY TO THE WELL-DEVELOPED ENFORCEMENT MUSCLE. BUT THE PIECES ARE ALL THERE

criminal justice response and incapacitation have another, largely untapped, structure that also have an effect on behavior, we need is also present in neighborhoods 24 hours to be mindful of when police presence a day, seven days a week. These are the deters crime and when presence deters people, families, and community institutions cooperation (Nagin 2013a; Nagin 2013b; that already play an important role in defusing Sampson and Bartusch 1998). We do violence. MAP and CMS are two examples of not believe that these tools should be the more organized efforts (New York City abandoned, but that we should steel Mayor’s Office to Prevent Gun Violence 2021). ourselves to question when and under what But there is a much broader coalition to be circumstances they promote wellbeing and organized and built. As we set out in the next when, instead, they further fuel the cynicism section, community institutions—if properly with which many view the state. supported—could be the primary bulwark of safety. There is also another consideration as we weigh how much to use police and the justice Even in the leanest of times, government system as our first step towards safety. is a singular, recurring source of funding How much will our police-centric approach and distribution of public goods— to safety prevent crime and promote schools, playgrounds, mental health and thriving lives? The justice system by its very homeless services, housing, and physical structure addresses harms after they occur infrastructure. Led well, government but does not and cannot aim to get iteratively can be the arterial structure of reform, to “crime zero” or more accurately “wellbeing deploying a civic structure as organized and infinity.” It has been an attractive default goal-oriented as the police. In partnership because it is familiar, definable, tangible, and with community residents, government operational, even if imperfect. We have not can provide as much, if not more, safety yet built an equivalent in civil society to the as police, without the unavoidable toxicity well-developed enforcement muscle. But that comes with force. We outline here the the pieces are all there. steps to achieve this within government and conclude with how communities, who can The significantly shrinking role that we and should be authors of their own safety, propose for the police and the criminal justice are the key institutions. system as a whole is possible because we

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TABLE 2

New York City Budget and Work Metrics by Agency, FY14 and FY20.

Expenditures in nominal $ FY 2014 adopted FY 20 modified Change Work metrics Change

NYPD $4,756,863,015 $6,082,976,755 28% Arrests -56%

Civilian Complain Review Board $11,916,954 $19,357,183 62%

Department of Correction $1,065,104,863 $1,310,387,219 23% Avg. Daily Population -49%

Board of Correction $939,848 $2,723,111 190%

Department of $83,304,979 $121,645,970 46% Docket Juveniles -70%

Docket Adults -39%

District Attorneys $296,160,764 $465,724,536 57% Arraignments -31%

Indigent Defense $253,492,418 $379,438,404 50% Intakes Not publicly available

Total–nominal $6,467,782,841 $8,382,253,178 30%

Adjusted for inflation $7,141,800,000 17%

Sources: New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget 2021a; New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget 2021b; New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2021b; City of New York 2020, and Fox and Koppel 2021.

Notes: *The agency costs listed here are exclusive of fringe benefits and pension costs which can beas much as almost 100% of the total personnel costs. For example, DOC fringe and benefits, not included in budget above, amount to $1,073,262, 879. All agency work metrics are by fiscal year, except arraignments which are by calendar year. Budget by agency data come from New York City Office of Management and Budget 2021a and 201b. All work metrics, except 2, come from City of New York 2020. Arrest work metrics come from New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services 2020a. Arraignment work metrics come from New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2021b.

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WE CONTINUE TO FUND THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM WITHOUT A RIGOROUS EXAMINATION OF HOW MUCH SAFETY IT PRODUCES WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER APPROACHES. STUCK IN THIS OLD WAY OF THINKING ABOUT SAFETY, THE “PER UNIT” COST OF RUNNING THE JUSTICE AGENCIES HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED AS THE SYSTEM HAS SHRUNK BY HALF

The current fiscal crisis provides an of millions in savings. This assumes that opportunity to significantly reshape the there are no other changes or efficiencies structures of safety by shrinking the in operations, an assumption that bears criminal justice system consistent with the scrutiny. There are then resources to be had reduction in size that has already occurred and better results in safety per dollar spent and commensurate with the additional than we currently achieve by simply building reductions that should occur as the City on an old and outdated system. further analyzes the appropriateness and cost/benefit of current functions. But more A closer look, agency by agency, signals than just cutting back, the fiscal crisis also an even starker truth: as justice agency gives us an opportunity to build the civic budgets have grown each year building on the structures that will continue to reduce foundation of the previous year, the way we crime. Although New York City is bigger than achieve safety no longer relies as heavily on other American cities, its challenges and the criminal justice system as in years past. opportunities are similar. This is the case even as crime has, for the most part, continued to decline. It is both that Over the last seven years in New York we have used arrest and jail less frequently City, the budgets of city-funded justice and other approaches more, but also that operations (jails, police, prosecutors, fewer people are committing crimes. Yet we defenders, and probation) rose a little continue to fund the criminal justice system over 17 percent when adjusted for inflation without a rigorous examination of how much (New York City Mayor’s Office of Management safety it produces when compared to other and Budget 2021a and 2021b). approaches. Stuck in this old way of thinking about safety, the “per unit” cost of running Meanwhile, with the massive shrinkage of the justice agencies more than has more than the system, justice operations—for example, doubled as the system has shrunk by half (see arrests, arraignments, jail population, and Table 3). While, of course, police, for example, probation caseloads—fell by about half (see do more than just arrest, this way of looking Table 2). The misalignment between budget at the budget is a helpful place to start to and activity is striking. If the 2013–2014 costs understand the orders of magnitude of the of operating the system were to be applied issue and to guide the beginning of a sharp to the much smaller extent of operations in look at what police and the criminal justice 2019–2020, the city would realize hundreds system should be used for.

EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY 41 SOCIAL FABRIC: A NEW MODEL FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS

TABLE 3

Cost of NYC Justice Agencies by Unit of Work, FY14 and FY20.

Cost/Work Metric (constant $)

FY2014 FY2020 change change% FY2014 FY2020 change%

NYPD Arrests 396,460 175,809 -220,651 -56% $11,998 $31,335 161%

DOC Population 11,408 5,841 -5,567 -49% $93,365 $203,170 118%

Probation (Adult) 23,805 14,504 -9,301 -39% $3,499 $7,596 117%

DA Arraignments* 174,313 120,045 -54,268 -31% $1,699 $3,513 107%

Sources: New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget 2021a; New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget 2021b; New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2021b; City of New York 2020; and Fox and Koppel 2021.

Notes: The 2020 per unit costs and the percentage increase between FY2014 and FY2020 when not adjusted for inflation are as follows: NYPD Arrests $34,600 +188%; DOC Population $224,343 +140%; Probation (Adult) $8,387 +139%; DA Arraignments $3,880 +128%. All agency work metrics are by fiscal year, except arraignments which are by calendar year.

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THE NEW MODEL WILL REQUIRE COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT, GOVERNMENT SCRUTINY, AND RADICAL TRANSPARENCY ABOUT THE FUNCTIONS AND EFFICACY OF NOT JUST POLICE BUT ALSO EVERY PART OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM

An assessment of what functions the justice must organize the multiple resources it has, system, including police, should continue to both inside and outside the bare frame of the do, what could be eliminated, and what could criminal justice system, that will significantly be transferred to a community structure is increase the safety and wellbeing of New a critical exercise. To do this effectively— Yorkers. The threshold step, as we describe driven by data showing how to create the in the next section, is to identify, hand in hand most safety for every dollar spent and in with communities, what strategies, rooted partnership with residents who know what in evidence and human experience, increase makes them safe—will require community the wellbeing and neighborhood vitality that engagement, government scrutiny, and will in turn increase safety. For example, radical transparency about the functions specific goals should be set for the reach of and efficacy of not just police but also universal summer youth employment and every part of the justice system. Without the connections to continued employment; a rigorous assessment, it is impossible to places which residents currently avoid answer some key questions that would help out of fear could be physically improved light the way: what functions should police and rearranged to increase positive perform, what functions do police perform social interaction. and with what manpower? To what degree does police presence affect crime? How We already fund an array of programs and can the jail population be down by half but could fund others that would iteratively corrections’ costs up by 23 percent? Why shrink the uses of the criminal justice system are half the arrests that judges arraign if we were intentional in the coordinated (the first appearance after arrest at which and disciplined implementation of some of a judge decides bail) either dismissed or pled the approaches we know to produce better to? What is driving the (long) length of time lives. Just taking one example: suppose it takes cases to get from arraignment to the city were to reach approximately sentencing? And none of these questions double the number of youths currently in can be answered unless we agree first on summer youth employment, aiming at full the purpose of the criminal justice system. enrollment particularly in the neighborhoods (Meares and Tyler 2020). most affected by poverty and violence.6 Reaching this goal would require an At the same time that city government approximate doubling of the city’s investment together with residents rigorously examine of $134 million to $236 million. Based on the functions and efficacy of the police and the results from most rigorous evidence in the criminal justice system, the government a recent random controlled study conducted

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A TRUE ZERO-BASED RE-EXAMINATION OF THE BUDGET COULD FAIRLY ASSESS HOW MUCH AND AT WHAT COST SAFETY CAN BE ACHIEVED, WEIGHING THE CURRENT OPERATIONS OF THE JUSTICE SYSTEM AGAINST A DIFFERENT SET OF INVESTMENTS— SOME STILL IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM BUT TIPPING TOWARD OTHER INVESTMENTS IN THE MODEL WE PROPOSE

in New York City, this expansion would reduce has continued to improve, indicates that there deaths by 18 percent and incarceration of is a different understanding now of how much people 19-years-old and older by 54 percent or little the justice system should be used (Gelber, Isen, and Kessler 2016). Using as the primary tool to secure safety. And the standard costs-benefits analysis calculations serious fiscal crisis, demands a different on the costs of mortality, incarceration, approach. A true zero-based re-examination and, enforcement against the costs of the of the budget could fairly assess how much program, the city would pay $236 million to and at what cost safety can be achieved, support the program but avoid $492 million weighing the current operations of the in costs.7 justice system against a different set of investments—some still in the criminal justice Now imagine a coordinated set of civic goods, system but tipping toward other investments selected based on the best science that we in the model we propose below. have: what is the impact on the safety and wellbeing of a neighborhood of a combination A disciplined look at how New York City of road-tested approaches: summer youth spends its recurring budget will also reveal employment linked to long-term work, lighting where it should be invested. Every city has of public spaces, scaled out provision of neighborhoods that, for decades, have been nurse family partnership to mothers, to name centers of concentrated disadvantage. just a few? Most importantly, with respect Despite the large reduction in, for example, to long-term effects and fiscal impact, shootings in those neighborhoods, they these investments would yield an iteratively remain where violence is concentrated and shrinking system, as youth who do not touch health, education, and employment outcomes the criminal justice system in the first place are markedly worse than other neighborhoods are more likely to never touch the system at (see Table 4). These neighborhoods are all (New York City’s Data Analytics Recidivism overwhelmingly the home to the city’s Tool N.d.).8 Black and Latinx residents. Focusing and coordinating resources in these few places Budgets are policy. But in New York City, as would have an outsized positive effect on the in most places, they are made incrementally, array of intersecting issues of which these each year’s budget building on the foundation neighborhoods bear the brunt. of the previous year, with some additions and subtractions. The massive reduction in the use of the criminal justice system that has occurred over the last few years, as safety

EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY 44 SOCIAL FABRIC: A NEW MODEL FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS

TABLE 4

New York City Neighborhoods with Highest Number of Shootings, 1993, 2019, and 2020.

1993 (precinct) # of shootings 2019 (precinct) # of shootings 2020 (precinct) # of shootings

Brownsville (73rd) 304 East New York (75th) 51 East New York (75th) 102

East New York (75th) 283 Brownsville (73rd) 34 Brownsville (73rd) 96

Bedford Stuyvesant (79th) 241 Morrisania (42nd) 31 Bedford Stuyvesant (79th) 61

Northern Crown Heights (77th) 238 Bedford Stuyvesant (79th) 30 East Flatbush (67th) 60

Bushwick (83rd) 218 East Flatbush (67th) 29 Mott Haven (40th) 55

East Flatbush (67th) 202 Grand Concourse (44th) 29 Northern Crown Heights (77th) 54

Mott Haven (40th) 193 West Bronx (46th) 27 Grand Concourse (44th) 49

Grand Concourse (44th) 165 Jamaica (113rd) 27 Woodlawn (47th) 46

West Bronx (46th) 161 Northern Crown Heights (77th) 25 Morrisania (42nd) 44

Bedford Stuyvesant (81st) 156 Woodlawn (47th) 23 West Bronx (46th) 44

Source: New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice 2020a.

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THE CREATION OF NEIGHBORHOOD CABINETS, ALONG THE LINES OF THE CURRENT “NEIGHBORHOODSTAT,” COULD PROVIDE REGULAR FEEDBACK TO THE ARRAY OF CITY AGENCIES TO ENSURE ACCOUNTABILITY AND APPROPRIATE ALIGNMENT OF RESOURCES

None of this will work unless someone with of an “Assistant Mayor” for each borough: authority is driving the strategy. In New York an individual with direct ties to the mayoralty City, we have deputy mayors to oversee, for and the panoramic view of neighborhood example, the housing agencies or the health conditions and needs. The creation of and human service agencies. But no one neighborhood cabinets, along the lines of the with comparable gravitas and knowledge current “NeighborhoodStat,” could provide oversees the broad docket of criminal justice regular feedback to the array of city agencies agencies. We propose a Deputy Mayor for to ensure accountability and appropriate Justice Policy and Operations who has deep alignment of resources. The community understanding and experience in the justice organization described in the section below world. This person would supervise agency would be a critical part of this structure, operations and resources, analyze and sort affording neighborhoods a direct connection the options, and interweave the multiple to and voice in government decision-making agency budgets and functions as they relate and the distribution of resources, and also to safety. Critically, this function must ensuring that government is closely attuned include the day-to-day operational and policy to residents. oversight of the police and other criminal justice entities as well as their intersection Backlighting it all, the city government must with other parts of government and the commit to a radical transparency both in community. Placing police in the context of reporting what its agencies are doing and in the larger goal of civic wellbeing and making engaging residents as paid partners to set not just police but criminal justice operations the priorities. Although residents experience as a whole accountable to a deputy mayor, issues first-hand, community problems would provide day-to-day oversight of are also often related to macro-forces practices and policies that, at least in (for example, the economy) or are shared New York City, is not currently present. across the city. Providing information on a real-time basis about what is driving The enterprise of creating concrete goals particular issues—from shootings to for neighborhoods and fusing together homelessness—is a key foundation stone to resources towards a common goal of building solutions and would create a robust wellbeing and safety could be further feedback loop of ideas and solutions. strengthened by the establishment

EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY 46 SOCIAL FABRIC: A NEW MODEL FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS

THE NEW YORK DEMONSTRATION PROJECT: A NEW INSTITUTION FOR COMMUNITY SAFETY AND WELLBEING

Restructuring the city budget is one tangible grew by a much larger amount (Branas, step in the effort to rethink the way cities South, Kondo, Hohl, Bourgois, Wiebe, and create strong, safe communities. But MacDonald 2018). This finding comes from it is also crucial to demonstrate that an a rigorous experiment in which lots were alternative set of community actors and randomly assigned to be “cleaned and institutions can, if supported with sufficient greened,” and it aligns with findings from resources and public commitment, generate a much larger literature base showing that safe neighborhoods that welcome and care re-designing vacant buildings and empty lots, for all residents. cleaning alleyways and overgrown weeds, and improving lighting are all effective ways THE IDEA THAT RESIDENTS AND to reduce violence and improve residents’ perceptions of safety (Chalfin, Hansen, LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS MOST CLOSELY Lerner, and Parker 2021; John Jay College CONNECTED TO AND INVESTED Research Advisory Group on Preventing and IN THEIR OWN COMMUNITIES CAN Reducing Community Violence 2020). Put EFFECTIVELY CONFRONT VIOLENCE in more general terms: when people and institutions care for public spaces, they IS SUPPORTED WITH A LARGE BODY become vibrant spaces where collective OF RIGOROUS EVIDENCE life happens, rather than abandoned spaces where violence is possible.

The idea that residents and local Programs run by nonprofit, community-led organizations most closely connected to organizations and city agencies designed and invested in their own communities can to engage young people and provide effectively confront violence is supported opportunities after-school and during the with a large body of rigorous evidence. When summer months rest on a similarly strong a local organization led an effort to clean foundation of evidence. The “Becoming up, redesign, and maintain abandoned lots A Man” program run by a nonprofit in Chicago, in Philadelphia, violence fell by 17 percent for example, randomly selected students and residents’ perceptions of safety

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NEIGHBORHOODS ARE STRONG WHEN SUPPORTED BY A COMMUNITY SAFETY NET WOVEN TOGETHER BY AN INTRICATE NETWORK OF RESIDENTS AND ORGANIZATIONS UNIFIED BY THEIR COMMITMENT TO THE WELLBEING OF EACH RESIDENT AND THE COMMUNITY

and provided an after-school sports program The individual programs we have identified that featured cognitive behavioral therapy, reflect a more general insight that is intuitive reducing arrests for violent crime by to most Americans, that has been expressed 45-50 percent among participants (Heller, by urban theorists for decades, and yet has Shah, Guryan, Ludwig, Mullainathan, and rarely been considered in debates about Pollack 2017). This program is one of many how to reduce violence: streets remain safe, that has been rigorously evaluated and and communities remain strong, when an shown that well-run efforts to reach out to intricate network of people and institutions young people and engage them, providing are looking out over them, making sure that activities during the school year, mentorship, no dangerous activity is taking place, that job training, and summer youth employment, no areas are abandoned, that no one is being can have enormous impacts on violence while victimized, that everyone feels welcomed, also generating long-term improvement in and that no one falls through the cracks outcomes like academic achievement (Jacobs 1961; Sampson, Raudenbush, and (Davis and Heller 2020). Earls 1997; Sharkey, Torrats-Espinosa, and Takyar 2017). Neighborhoods are strong Community organizations have also shown when supported by a community safety a capacity to engage local residents who net woven together by an intricate network have been impacted by the criminal justice of residents and organizations unified by system, as well as people who are most at their commitment to the wellbeing of each risk of becoming victims of violent crime. resident and the community. Interventions designed to provide short-term financial assistance, cognitive behavioral The second component of our plan is to therapy, job training, or social services to invest in a new coalition, composed of people at highest risk of victimization or residents and local community-oriented to those leaving prisons and jails have not organizations, that can become the primary been evaluated with the same rigor as the institution responsible for public safety programs described above, but do have and community wellbeing. Building a new a great deal of suggestive evidence indicating institution will take time and planning. that they can be extremely effective in We propose a demonstration project reducing involvement with violence and giving implemented through an intensive planning participants the chance to re-integrate into process. The coalition will be led by a single their families and communities (Butts and organization, and include other nonprofits, Delgado 2017; Wallace, Papachristos, Meares, community leaders from religious and Fagan 2016). congregations and schools, residents,

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THE COALITION WILL BE FUNDED WITH A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT AND AT A LEVEL OF RESOURCES THAT REFLECTS THE VALUE IT WILL BRING TO THE COMMUNITY AND TO THE CITY AS A WHOLE

and public and private partners. It will be The planning process would start by informed and supported by the expertise funding a planning committee and focus of neighborhood residents and by the groups of residents and leaders. The goal analysis and research of other key experts would be to develop procedures for dealing who can illuminate the impacts of different with incidents and scenarios that have investments. It will begin with a planning traditionally been handled by the police, process to consider the goals and desires of including traffic violations, public order residents, the relationship between the new violations, all calls for service, criminal entity and law enforcement, procedures for investigations, and arrests and prosecution. different types of events and situations, and Additionally, new procedures would be the organizational structure. The coalition needed to shift the primary responsibility will be funded with a long-term commitment for patrol of the target area and prevention and at a level of resources that reflects of violence away from police and to the new the value it will bring to the community and community institution. Promising models to the city as a whole. from cities within and outside the U.S. would need to be sought out and studied, along with While shaping the exact contours of plans for coordination and communication, the coalition should be the result of an hiring and training. The planning committee intensive planning process, we anticipate its should be able to hire consultants who can development as emerging through several describe and create training guides with steps. A first step would be to select one or best practices for methods of de-escalation, a set of communities or precincts where the conflict mediation, domestic violence, project will be implemented. It is inevitable mental health crises, physical health that some residents in a neighborhood will crises, youth outreach, etc. Procedures oppose these changes, so a plan will have for coordinating with public agencies and to be developed to determine how to handle nonprofits will have to be worked out. public input and opposition. It will be key to select a well-respected leader for the interim Developing a plan for long-term funding is planning process who understands the essential for this to succeed. Funding should neighborhood and political dynamics and can be roughly equivalent to the budget for NYPD work with and coordinate both community operations in the area, plus additional funds groups and the analytic teams to determine for planning. A long-term commitment for the shape of the entity that would take at least 10 years would have to be in place charge of the process and outcomes after so that residents can be confident that the the planning process. institution will not disappear when there are challenges or changes in administrations.

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An oversight committee should be formed The demonstration project relies on to gather and voice community feedback the assumption that most conflicts and about the project, to provide a mechanism altercations can be defused with street for communication of challenges and outreach workers, violence interrupters, opportunities, and to collect data to and professionals trained in methods of measure progress and satisfaction with the mediation and de-escalation. Physical community. This committee might follow and mental health crises can be handled the model of NeighborhoodStat, where by paramedics and medical professionals, community leaders and public officials come and public order violations can be handled by together to identify and solve challenges or homeless assistance providers, counselors, problems within the area along with solutions and other social service providers. If this and action steps. assumption seems naïve, we would point out that this is already happening. Data from The operations of this new coalition would the National Crime Victimization Survey be worked out over time, through planning reveal that roughly half of serious violent led by those who have been doing this work victimizations—sexual , , for years outside the boundaries of law and aggravated assaults—are not reported enforcement, and by the community itself. to the police (Morgan and Truman 2020). We argue that law enforcement should The best models of restorative justice lead continue to play a central role in responding to the conclusion that prosecution is not to all forms of gun violence, while working always the right response to violence: when with the new coalition to solve problems in given multiple options, a large majority of locations where shootings are common, and those who have survived violence do not focusing their attention (under the direction want the people who harmed them to go of the new coalition) on the tiny fraction to prison; most seek a reckoning, driven of community members who account for by the goals of accountability and healing a disproportionate share of serious violence. (Sered 2011; Sered 2019). Beyond this role, we envision a community where police officers serve as backup to outreach workers, counselors, mediators, social service providers, unarmed traffic safety agents, and EMTs, becoming involved only if the first responder requests assistance or if there is an arrest to be made (Friedman 2020).

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CONCLUSION

There are neighborhoods all over the was killed (Hinton 2020).9 We have models country where residents stopped relying available, but we’ve never made a sustained on the police to create safety a long time commitment to any institution other than the ago, where local organizations and informal police and the prison system. groups have developed their own methods to mediate and de-escalate conflict, to help If the police are no longer given the task neighbors experiencing a health crisis, to of dominating public space and regulating support those suffering from poverty or violence, we have to ensure that someone is addiction, to provide appropriate responses looking out over every community and taking for people with mental illness, and to seek responsibility for the safety and wellbeing of healing and reconciliation in the aftermath everyone within it. If there are fewer warriors of victimization. Local groups, including on the street, we need to invest in more organizations like and guardians. The evidence available suggests in Minneapolis, that community organizations and residents were making the case for new institutions can play this role, but we’ve never given them of public safety well before the chance.

IF THE POLICE ARE NO LONGER GIVEN THE TASK OF DOMINATING PUBLIC SPACE AND REGULATING VIOLENCE, WE HAVE TO ENSURE THAT SOMEONE IS LOOKING OUT OVER EVERY COMMUNITY AND TAKING RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE SAFETY AND WELLBEING OF EVERYONE WITHIN IT

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ENDNOTES

1 In 2019, the total strength of the Accessed February 16, 2021 vast majority of these individuals do not police department was 51,894, of (www..com/tv/ work or worked less than full time year- which 36,643 were uniformed officers Bv4RAyHdUu/?igshid=1vj2sejf0sfbm); round. Alternatively, the focus could (Independent Budget Office 1998; Rebecca Kavanagh’s be on those suffering from extreme City of New York 2020). Account, Accessed February 16, 2021 poverty (approximately 67,000 people) (https://twitter.com/drrjkavanagh/ with a doubling of the length of the 2 See New York City’s Mayor’s Office status/1257883737271959552?s=21); program. A third option could be to of Criminal Justice 2019. Josue Pierre’s Page, focus on the group aged 19 or above, 3 In 2019, district attorneys declined to Accessed February 16, 2021 (www. a group at highest risk of contact prosecute approximately 9 percent of facebook.com/100002305537841/ with the justice system. felony and 12 percent of misdemeanor posts/2957834360970053/); 7 2020 update using data from cases. The conviction (with sentence) Rudy Lo Esquire’s Instagram Gelber et al. rate for felonies was 53 percent, and Account, Accessed February 16, 38 percent for misdemeanors. 2021 (www.instagram.com/tv/B_ 8 Age is one of the biggest risk factors zXdKcAWuY/?igshid=n0qosr1idq2c). for criminal activity, with young adults 4 The 2013 average daily population being more likely to commit crimes. for New York City’s Department of 6 The city currently reaches The number of both arrests and Corrections was 11,696. On April 30, 2020, 70,000 young people. Increasing re-arrests went drastically down for the jailed population was 3,824. coverage could be shaped in a young adults ages 16–19 (-69% arrests; number of different ways: doubling 5 See also the social media accounts: -77% rearrests) and 20–24 (-51% the investment to reach more ’s Instagram Account, arrests; -59% rearrests) from 2009 to people, particularly in the poorest Accessed February 16, 2021 2018, indicating promising reductions in neighborhoods. According to the (www.instagram.com/tv/B_ initial criminal justice involvement and census, there are approximately ybso8JE9g/?igshid=1tdi9tcp8drhm); recidivism among young adults. 143,000 people in the summer youth Chivona Renée Newsome’s employment program age group who 9 See also www.reclaimtheblock.org Instagram Account, are also below the poverty level. The and www.blackvisionsmn.org.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AUTHORS’ NOTES

We are deeply grateful to Tracey Elizabeth Glazer is the former Director Meares, Melissa Nelson, Vivian Nixon, of the New York City Mayor’s Office Robert Rooks, and Vincent Schiraldi of Criminal Justice. Previously, for their insightful comments on an Elizabeth served as the Deputy earlier draft, to Anamika Dwivedi Secretary for Public Safety to New York and Katharine Huffman for working State Governor Andrew Cuomo and with us closely to edit, refine, and earlier as a federal prosecutor. improve the article, and to Evie Lopoo Patrick Sharkey is Professor of for editorial assistance. Thanks also Sociology and Public Affairs at to Ashley Demyan for her wisdom Princeton University. Patrick was and insight on the implications of formerly Chair of Sociology at New York the New York City data and to the University, served as Scientific Director team at the NYC Mayor’s Office of at Crime Lab, New York, and is the Criminal Justice for shining a light on founder of AmericanViolence.org. the impact of the justice system on the lives of New Yorkers. For their unsparing critiques, animated by their love of New York City and their deep understanding of her streets, justice system, and government, special thanks to Rosalie Genevro, Shaer, and Tony Shorris. To Eric Cumberbatch, Renita Francois, and Jessica Mofield, more thanks than this can express for your vision, leadership, and most of all empathy for the people of New York City, as you forge a new path for safety. Finally, we thank all of the members of the Square One Project for sharpening our thinking and inspiring us over the past three years.

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EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY 61 SOCIAL FABRIC: A NEW MODEL FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND VITAL NEIGHBORHOODS

MEMBERS OF THE EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY

Abbey Stamp | Executive Director, Emily Wang | Professor of Medicine, Nancy Gertner | Professor, Harvard Multnomah County Local Public Yale School of Medicine; Director, Law School & Retired Senior Judge, Safety Coordinating Council SEICHE Center for Health and United States District Court for the Justice; & Co-Founder, Transitions District of Massachusetts Amanda Alexander | Founding Clinic Network Executive Director, Detroit Justice Nneka Jones Tapia | Managing Center & Senior Research Scholar, Greisa Martinez Rosas | Executive Director of Justice Initiatives, University of Michigan School of Law Director, United We Dream Chicago Beyond

Arthur Rizer | Vice President of Jeremy Travis | Co-Founder, Patrick Sharkey | Professor of Technology, Criminal Justice and Civil Square One Project; Executive Vice Sociology and Public Affairs, Liberties, Lincoln Network President of Criminal Justice, Arnold Princeton University & Founder, Ventures; President Emeritus, John AmericanViolence.org Bruce Western | Co-Founder, Square Jay College of Criminal Justice One Project; Co-Director, Justice Lab Robert Rooks | Chief Executive & Bryce Professor of Sociology and Katharine Huffman | Executive Officer, REFORM Alliance Social Justice, Director, Square One Project, Justice & Co-Founder of Alliance for Safety Lab, Columbia University & Founding & Justice Danielle Sered | Executive Director, Principal, The Raben Group Common Justice Sylvia Moir | Interim Police Chief, Kevin Thom | Sheriff, Napa, CA & Former Chief of Police, Daryl Atkinson | Founder and Pennington County, SD Tempe, AZ Co-Director, Forward Justice Kris Steele | Executive Director, Thomas Harvey | Director, Justice Elizabeth Glazer | Former Director, TEEM Project, Advancement Project New York City’s Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice Laurie Garduque | Director, Tracey Meares | Walton Hale Criminal Justice, John D. and Hamilton Professor, Yale Law School Elizabeth Trejos-Castillo | C. R. Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation & Founding Director, The Justice Hutcheson Endowed Associate Collaboratory Professor, Human Development Lynda Zeller | Senior Fellow & Family Studies, Texas Behavioral Health, Michigan Health Vikrant Reddy | Senior Fellow, Charles Tech University Endowment Fund Koch Institute

Elizabeth Trosch | Chief District Matthew Desmond | Professor of Vincent Schiraldi | Senior Research Court Judge, 26th Judicial District Sociology, Princeton University & Scientist, Columbia University of North Carolina Founder, The Eviction Lab School of & Co-Director, Justice Lab, Columbia University Melissa Nelson | State Attorney, Florida’s 4th Judicial Circuit Vivian Nixon | Executive Director, College and Community Fellowship

EXECUTIVE SESSION ON THE FUTURE OF JUSTICE POLICY The Executive Session on the Future of Justice Policy, part of the Square One Project, brings together researchers, practitioners, policy makers, advocates, and community representatives to generate and cultivate new ideas.

The group meets in an off-the-record setting twice a year to examine research, discuss new concepts, and refine proposals from group members. The Session publishes a paper series intended to catalyze thinking and propose policies to reduce incarceration and develop new responses to violence and the other social problems that can emerge under conditions of poverty and racial inequality. By bringing together diverse perspectives, the Executive Session tests and pushes its participants to challenge their own thinking and consider new options.