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The field: , , Karen McCrimmon, Martha Hall Findlay, Deborah Coyne and Martin Cauchon, at the last leadership debate in Montreal on March 23. By then, the only question remaining was who would finish second to Trudeau. Photo: Adam Scotti.

he formation of Liberal Party policy heading towards the next Three Liberal T election will be shaped by three challenges, which are essentially stra- tegic in nature. This is not to suggest Challenges, then that normal policy development will be hijacked by a stand-alone strategic exercise. As always, a sense of what is Seize the Day best for the country, married with the party’s values, will obtain. There may be John Duffy an accent placed upon new and more democratic means of canvassing party opinion. Within that, however, meeting The Liberal Party can count on the record of seven years the strategic imperatives outlined below will be the critical challenge in shaping of Conservative government to help differentiate it as a the Liberal offering. governing alternative. But it also has to formulate rem- As with any opposition party, the first edies, sell them to an electorate hungry for change over and most compelling need is to build a clear, coherent and resonant critique of the heads of a balky policy elite and outperform the other the government’s policy and to create choices. It has the advantages of a policy history that an alternative that proposes to remedy the ills pointed out in that critique. squares with current trends in public sentiment and a A second, key challenge will be reconcil- leader who has the appeal of the late Jack Layton. An ex- ing the wide gap between the elite con- sensus and broader electoral opinion. citing, Layton-like figure atop the durable Liberal brand Third, Liberals will require clear differ- should be a formidable combination. entiation with the New Democrats.

Policy 13 Perhaps the most interesting part of Prime Minister Harper’s show- is decreasingly sustainable as the years these challenges is that the better the don’t-tell style has several in power accumulate. The governing re- Liberals do at meeting the first, the cord has inevitably come to define Mr. harder it will prove to meet the subse- advantages. One of them is Harper’s party as no campaign narrative quent two. blurring the government’s can. Mounting an intellectually coherent complexion. This has enabled The outlines of the Harper government and electorally resonant alternative vi- the government to define are now clear enough. It favours a very sion to the Harper Conservatives comes itself by whatever offering it limited role for government in the life first. Framing a resonant critique of may select to suit the political of the country, and a shrunken role for the government was a difficult chal- moment. Ottawa in the federation. After seven lenge, for the Liberals in particular, over years of tax cuts, disengagement from the past several years. (The author’s health care, retreat from environmental thoughts on the subject were detailed obligations, reduction of old-age secu- in Policy Options, February, 2012.). But, rity liability, de minimus involvement after almost a decade of Conservative Conservatives adjusted their image to- in broadcast policy, and fending off a rule, this has become a relatively man- ward ever-greater moderation, deflect- countrywide dialogue on energy strate- ageable task. It is worth revisiting the ing debate over their basic approach to gies, the debate as to the nature of this history of the Harper Conservatives’ po- governing with fuzzy blue pullovers, government is pretty much over. Move- litical offering to see where the govern- transit-user tax breaks and fitness tax ment conservatives – many of them in ment now stands, and what an alterna- credits. Pandas and Mrs. Harper may the press – may continue to gnash their tive might look like. well figure in 2015. Beyond the cosmet- teeth over how “centrist” this govern- Prime Minister Harper’s show-don’t- ics, substantive election-time offerings ment has become. This debate obscures tell style has several advantages. One have tended to be innocuous. the government’s identity amongst the of them is blurring the government’s elite audience. Canadians, however, complexion. This has enabled the gov- he longer one governs, howev- are telling one surveyor after another ernment to define itself by whatever er, the harder this manoeuver that regardless of the labels applied by offering it may select to suit the po- T becomes. Inviting the elector- pundits, they understand well enough litical moment. In the campaigns of ate to pay no attention to the rather where the Harper administration is 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2011, the Harper conservative man behind the curtain coming from.

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WWW.PWC.CA 14 Health care is also marching up the electorate’s priority list. in added value. They’ve decimated the The phenomenon of an aging society is no longer just on the manufacturing sector because of the high dollar. They don’t care, because radar; it is now winging in onto the flight deck. they look north and they see lots more pristine territory that they can rip up. And, of course, that’s why they’re so frantic about both the environmental This classical federalist role (as govern- living? Attempts to avoid the debate movement and First Nations’ rights, ment supporters term it; a certain vener- behind a veil of classical federalist dis- because those are the barriers to their able Liberal adviser prefers “deconstruc- engagement or other diversions invite economic vision.” (Dancing the World tionist”) commands the support of the a competing response. And it is reason- into Being: A Conversation with Idle No standard 30 percent CPC voting base, able to expect that the first steps to- More’s Leanne Simpson”. YES Magazine, centered in the prairies and rural Eng- wards dealing with this new reality will Mar. 2013.) lish Canada. It can also, depending on come from opposition parties. The Lib- This is not just fringe, left-wing dis- the alternatives, carry with it a degree of erals, with their estimable track record course. Those with long memories will assent in some parts of Quebec. At the in previous social-policy build-outs, recall this kind of debate occupying same time, however, the Harper Con- could do well by pivoting off Conserva- the mainstream through the 1960s and servative record of deconstructionist tive standoffishness towards health care 1970s, and into the 1980s, until the government carries with it a limitation: and other social policies, and making a advent of the Mulroney government. vulnerability to the charge of neglect positive offering. In that time, the economic nationalist when demand builds for government The openings in economic and health critique of the Canadian economy as re- policy responses. Now, considerable evi- policy present two critical opportuni- source-dominated and lacking in high- dence is accumulating that Canadians ties. Equally important are openings er-value-added processing and manufac- are finding the Harper government’s re- in environmental and aboriginal af- turing, was a powerful political engine. sponse inadequate on two vital fronts: fairs. The Conservative government has This critique dominated the thinking economic policy and health care. taken on a colour that contemporary of the and could Pollsters report growing numbers of Ca- (especially Latin American) political claim the support of a good chunk of nadians dissatisfied with the country’s scientists refer to as “extractivist”. The the Liberal Party, centered about Walter economic record and prospects under term, coined in the 1990s and derived Gordon. Major federal policies of the the Harper Conservatives. The argu- from botanical processes, refers to gov- Trudeau government arose from this ment that Canada is doing better than ernments that are focused primarily on strain of thinking, including the For- our G7 competitors has grown thin. resource-based economic development, eign Investment Review Act, the forma- Hence the 2013-14 Budget’s tax expen- generally at the expense of environ- tion of Petro-Canada, and, arguably, the ditures on stimulating manufacturing mental and aboriginal policy claims. National Energy Program itself. – the closest Harper’s Ottawa has and There is evidence that the kind of poli- perhaps can come, since the 2008 crisis, One of the many touch-points tics surrounding the extraction econo- to an activist economic policy – and the in redefining the relationship my in the 1960s and 1970s can stage a barrage of Economic Plan paid adver- of aboriginal Canada to the contemporary comeback. The foreign tising this winter. We’ll see how much ownership issues of 2011-12 in the oil these measures do to reverse the tide of country as a whole will be patch and elsewhere have re-awakened public opinion that is souring on the resource revenues and their the debate. The care and caution with government’s economic agenda. co-management by First which the Harper government has Health care is also marching up the Nations and outside interests. conducted itself around the issue is a electorate’s priority list. The phenome- testament to its latent power. On the non of an aging society is no longer just other side of the House of Commons, on the radar; it is now winging in onto Thomas Mulcair has pursued the eco- the flight deck. The developed world’s nomic counterpoint to the extractivist extension of lifespans is bringing with approach – his “Dutch disease” analy- it an entirely new form of social pres- sis, which is essentially the old argu- sure – four-generation families in which ment about a resource-based economy senior citizens seek support for the care The extractivist rubric is useful in cap- brought up to date. of super-senior parents while their chil- turing certain aspects of the Conserva- dren look after little ones. Canadians tive government. Naomi Klein links n contemporary politics, two ma- have come to expect a helping hand the language of extractivism with con- jor policy currents have widened from their governments in dealing with temporary Canadian reality: “Let’s talk I the appeal of the anti-extractivist the pressures of old age. The principal about extraction because it strikes me argument beyond the purely economic. social policy achievements of the late that if there is one word that encapsu- Environmental awareness and organiza- 1960s and early 1970s set into place lates the dominant economic vision, tion were in their infancy when the last these supports. Now, a new social policy that is it. The Harper government sees anti-extractivist political wave rolled revolution is at hand: how will govern- its role as facilitating the extraction of through in the 1960s and 1970s. Today, ments help Canadian families man- natural wealth from the ground and the green movement has its own party age the challenges of four-generation into the market. They are not interested with a parliamentarian as leader and

Policy 15 routinely commands approximately and in social policy (including health Strategic voting could well five percent of the popular vote in elec- care), and one that looks less like the play a critical role in the 2015 tions. Environmental considerations bad guys in Avatar when it comes to en- now have a major place at most gov- vironmental and aboriginal policy. campaign, and it is not clear ernments’ tables. Appealing to the en- This leads Liberals to the second chal- who the beneficiary will be. vironmentally aware voter is a critical lenge: selling the critique and the rem- The implication of these political consideration for most parties. edies to the electorate over the heads dynamics is that the electorate In this context, the addition of today’s of the policy elites. The imperatives of green movement to more traditional will confer upon either the greater economic, social and environ- Liberals or the NDP the mantle economic development arguments adds mental policy engagement enjoy broad a second, powerful engine to the anti- electoral support. Voter enthusiasm for of alternative government, extractivist political vehicle. aboriginal reconciliation is less signifi- and leave the other behind. The growth of aboriginal political cant, but evolving. So far, so good. The strength in recent years is another im- hard part is that this agenda is not at portant aspect of the new alternative to all that of the country’s policy-making extractivism. One of the many touch- elite. In these quarters, the agenda is points in redefining the relationship tightly wrapped around fiscal policy of aboriginal Canada to the country as and concern over public and household a whole will be resource revenues and debt levels, tax competitiveness, and their co-management by First Nations paving the way for significant further and outside interests. The world has increases in resource extraction and, by evolved considerably since the days of extension, the country’s reliance on it. the Berger Commission and the Mack- enzie Valley Pipeline debate. Aborigi- his means that selling an alter- nal demographic and political strength native agenda of the kind set have grown significantly but translat- T out here will have to be done ing that power into electoral results has amid elite skepticism, even outright op- not yet fully occurred. Therefore, par- position. In order to pursue this agenda ty policymakers may or may not rely for Canada, Liberals must brace them- upon First Nations to join their elector- selves for elite-opinion resistance bor- al coalitions. But it is reasonable to sur- dering on hostility and even contempt. mise that the aboriginal story will play The reception given Liberals in elite sa- a key role in the critique of the Harper lons could feel a lot more like that of government. the 1988 free trade election – angry ac- cusations and ominous warnings about Liberals can offer a federal a Liberal Party gone left-wing rogue – than the more encouraging reception government more activist in in such quarters during the Chretien- the economy and in social Martin era. policy (including health care), Even if Liberals are prepared to steel and one that looks less like themselves for this kind of reaction, the bad guys in Avatar when it they will face formidable barriers to comes to environmental and pushing their message in the face of an earned-media atmosphere that could aboriginal policy. easily be dominated by the opposing viewpoint. If the Grits are counting on earned media to deliver their genuinely alternative vision, they may find them- selves sorely disappointed. If the Liber- Taken together, these outlines of a cri- als are going to pursue a thoroughgo- tique of the Harper government have ing critique of the Harper government, some clarity. The Conservatives’ de- they will need to build a campaign constructionist government is not up apparatus that can direct-deliver their to the economic challenges facing Ca- messages to voters, rather than simply nadian families or to their evolving so- relying on press releases and a smatter- cial needs. And its extractivist approach ing of advertising. to economic development is at odds with Canadians’ preferred approach to he final challenge will be to a diversified economy, environmental draw a border between the sensitivity and reconciliation with First T Trudeau Liberal offering and Nations. Liberals can offer a federal gov- that of Thomas Mulcair’s New Demo- ernment more activist in the economy crats. The anti-Conservative majority

April/May 2013 16 One of the many touch-points in redefining the relationship of On the whole, the opportunity for the aboriginal Canada to the country as a whole will be resource Liberals is clear enough. Critique the government in economic development, revenues and their co-management by First Nations and social policy, environmental and ab- outside interests. original affairs. Offer compelling, sen- sible alternatives in these areas. Devel- op the will and the means to push the offering past an unwilling policy elite in the electorate appears impatient with Declaration – which would allow Que- towards a more receptive electorate. the rivalry between the two parties, and bec separation on a single-vote margin Contrast the likeable, charismatic Justin eager to defeat the Harper government. based on a sovereignist-drafted question Trudeau with the saturnine and volatile Strategic voting could well play a critical – is a non-starter among most Canadi- Thomas Mulcair. role in the 2015 campaign, and it is not ans outside Quebec and among anglo- Each one of these imperatives carries se- clear who the beneficiary will be. The phones and allophones within Quebec rious challenges. Framing a better eco- implication of these dynamics is that who consider the country’s unity to be nomic agenda is an easy order to make the electorate will confer upon either important. In Quebec, it can serve as a but a tougher one to fulfill. Tackling the Liberals or the NDP the mantle of rallying point to depress the NDP vote social policy in an era of limited fiscal alternative government, and leave the to its sovereignist core. resources is not for the faint of heart. other behind. During the Layton era, New Democrats Re-connecting with the environment The Grits have some advantages in this were able to blur the policy distinction will not be easy for a party recently scenario. Leadership is the first. As I with the Liberals to their advantage, traumatized by the electoral failure of have argued elsewhere, Justin Trudeau is creating the impression that their party the Green Shift. a potentially compelling political figure, was simply a more sincere, honest and To make matters more difficult, the reminiscent in many respects of the late appealing version of the Grits. This challenge seems to grow with each step Jack Layton. An exciting, Layton-like worked well enough against Stephane one takes. The clearer and more com- figure atop the durable Liberal brand Dion and , but will be pelling the critique of the government, should be a formidable combination. a much tougher sell with Justin Trudeau the harder it is to come up with policy The Liberals also have at their disposal matched up against Thomas Mulcair. alternatives. The sharper the alterna- an issue with which to define Mulcair The bulk of the differentiation with the tives, the firmer the resistance from the negatively: his stand on Quebec and the NDP may well be accomplished for the existing elite consensus is likely to be. Constitution. The NDP’s Sherbrooke Grits by leadership. And finally, the further one goes in this direction, the closer one gets to territory already staked out by the NDP. For the Liberals, it is critical to under- stand that the space between the Con- servatives and the New Democrats is terribly limited – certainly too narrow on which to mount a national alterna- tive. In this case, a Goldilocks strategy (not too hot, not too cold) could easily result in getting eaten. The Liberals will need to pick a course and stick to it with rigour and discipline. In the party’s long and distinguished history, it has found the courage to do so many times. The Liberals were far from shoo-ins in 1926, 1945, 1993 or even in early 1968, until Trudeaumania broke out. If the Grits are prepared to mount a tough, courageous, progressive campaign, they can open a new and exciting chapter in their his- tory and the country’s. The day is theirs to seize. John Duffy, author of the acclaimed Fights of Our Lives, was a senior policy adviser to the Rt. Hon. . He is a principal of Strategy Corp., a government relations, communications and management consulting firm in and Ottawa. John Duffy writes that “Justin Trudeau is a potentially compelling political figure,” which on top of “the durable Liberal brand should be a formidable combination.” Photo: Adam Scotti. [email protected]

Policy