Fake Terrorism: Examining Terrorist Groups' Resort to Hoaxing As a Mode of Attack
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Fake Terrorism: Examining terrorist groups’ resort to hoaxing as a mode of attack by Nicole Alexandra Tishler A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Affairs Norman Paterson School of International Affairs Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario © 2017, Nicole Alexandra Tishler Abstract Little academic attention has been accorded to terrorism hoaxers—i.e. those perpetrators who use lies, benign materials and/or empty threats to give the impression that a terrorist act is or has been underway. This dissertation harnesses under-utilised terrorism events data to build a theory of hoaxes in pursuit of a dual aim: to provide a robust substantive answer to the empirical puzzle of why hoaxes are used, but not by all groups, and not all the time; and to evaluate the degree to which existing data can demystify the hoax phenomenon. The starting point is a rationalist framework for terrorist groups’ strategic logics, which emphasizes the relative costs and benefits of hoaxes in relation to serious terrorism activity. In the empirical theory-building chapters, probit regression and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) are used to identify various organizational conditions that differentiate hoaxers from non-hoaxers, thereby indicating which strategic logics are plausibly at play, and in which contexts. A statistical cluster analysis demonstrates that there are five broad classes of hoaxing terrorist groups, which differ from one another along motivational, structural, and campaign contextual lines. While the unit of analysis throughout is the terrorist group, these analyses rely on cross- national terrorism events databases—predominantly ITERATE and the Monterey WMD Terrorism Database—to identify which groups never hoax, and which groups sometimes do. In the dissertation’s final section, earlier findings are tested against a new sample of terrorism perpetrators derived from the recently-released Canadian Incident Database (CIDB). Although the Canada-centric data reveals a biased under-reporting of hoax activity in the cross-national datasets, a QCA analysis of its perpetrators reveals roughly similar conditions differentiating hoaxers from non-hoaxers. The CIDB’s comprehensive events coverage is further exploited to test whether these organizational indicators and their associated hypothesized mechanisms hold, when campaign activities are evaluated at the event-level. A fine-grained analysis of event sequencing in Canada’s most prolific terrorism campaign (that of the Front de libération du Québec) corroborates a range of proposed strategic logics. The observational nature of available data is thus limited in its ability to clarify hoaxers’ strategic logics, which are both over-determined and equifinal. ii Acknowledgements My most heartfelt thanks go to my supervisor, Jeremy Littlewood, whose teaching and mentorship style I aspire to emulate in my own career. Over the past five years, you have given me free rein to pursue my intellectual whims, but your extensive knowledge and judicious advice have always kept me from straying too far. I am profoundly grateful for your support and guidance. To my advisor, Dane Rowlands: thank you for encouraging me to expand my methodological horizons, both at NPSIA and beyond. At risk of sounding platitudinous: this dissertation simply would not be what it is, were it not for your instrumental role in my education. And to my advisor, Stephanie Carvin: I will be forever grateful for your confidence in— and enthusiasm for—my research. You have always urged me to aim high, and I am a stronger scholar for it. I am indebted to each of you. My sincere thanks also go to Josh Kilberg: my role model for success in the NPSIA PhD program, and an invaluable source of data and advice in this project’s early days. Additionally, I am grateful for the generous funding support that this research has received from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the Province of Ontario (Ontario Graduate Scholarship), and the Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security and Society (TSAS). Finally, I would like to thank my friends and family for their endless love and unwavering support. Mom and Dad: thank you for instilling in me a passion for learning and the tenacity to see this degree through to its end. This is for you. iii Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ...................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................ xii List of Figures .......................................................................................................... xiv List of Appendices ................................................................................................... xvi 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Why fake terrorism deserves serious attention: Motivation and significance ...........3 1.1.1 The costs that hoaxes impose on society ................................................................... 5 1.1.2 Hoaxes’ implications for theories of terrorism ........................................................... 9 1.1.3 Hoaxes’ implications for the evaluation of serious terrorist activity ....................... 10 1.2 Available data: How we know what we know about hoaxes.................................. 11 1.2.1 Challenges with hoax data ........................................................................................ 14 1.3 Scope and methodological overview .................................................................... 19 1.3.1 Unit of analysis .......................................................................................................... 20 1.3.2 Dissertation outline .................................................................................................. 21 PART I: DEFINING HOAXES, CONCEPTUALLY AND EMPIRICALLY ................................. 27 2. Defining hoaxes: Key concepts .......................................................................... 27 2.1 Categories of hoaxes ............................................................................................ 27 iv v 2.2 What defines a terrorism hoax? ........................................................................... 29 2.3 Hoaxes versus related activities ............................................................................ 32 2.4 Hoaxes’ relationship with other terrorism tactics .................................................. 36 2.4.1 Research Note: Hoaxes as a “mode”—not a “tactic”—of terrorism ........................ 39 2.5 Conclusions on the concept of hoaxing ................................................................. 40 3. The scope and nature of terrorist hoax activities worldwide .............................. 42 3.1 When do hoaxes occur? ....................................................................................... 43 3.2 Where do hoaxes occur? ...................................................................................... 45 3.3 What kinds of hoaxes occur? ................................................................................ 51 3.3.1 Hoaxes as a mode of terrorism, revisited: Implications for coding .......................... 54 3.4 Who hoaxes? ....................................................................................................... 57 3.4.1 What else do hoaxers do? ........................................................................................ 59 3.5 Conclusions on the scope and nature of terrorist hoax activities worldwide .......... 62 4. Insights into hoax behaviour: Previous empirical research ................................. 63 4.1 How terrorists decide among tactics ..................................................................... 64 4.1.1 Rational choice .......................................................................................................... 65 4.1.1.1 The formal rational choice model and its applications to hoaxing .............................. 65 4.1.1.2 The strategic logic of terrorist (hoax) behaviour ......................................................... 67 4.1.1.3 The unitary actor assumption and principal-agent relationships ................................ 71 4.1.2 Ideology and group motivation ................................................................................ 73 4.2 The nature of violence ......................................................................................... 74 4.2.1 Lethality: Hoaxing’s inverse ...................................................................................... 74 4.2.1.1 Lethality and ideology .................................................................................................. 74 4.2.1.2 Lethality and group structure ...................................................................................... 76 vi 4.2.1.3 Lethality and group origins .......................................................................................... 77 4.2.2 Suicide terrorism: A conceptual