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MCC Mongolia Roads Evaluation Design Report Revision 4 External

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MCC Mongolia Roads Evaluation Design Report Revision 4 External Evaluation Design Report: Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the North-South Road Project in Mongolia Original Submission: August 24, 2018 Revision 1: May 6, 2019 This publication was produced by International Development Group LLC, for review by the Millennium Challenge Corporation. Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the Evaluation Design Report North-South Road Project in Mongolia Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the North-South Road Project in Mongolia Final Evaluation Design Report BPA Number: 95332418A0009 Contract Number: 95332418F0071 This report was prepared by International Development Group LLC (IDG) with the following contributors: Jens Abraham, Hyosun Bae, Eddy Bynens, Frankie Clogston, Jean-Francois Gautrin, and Goran Mladenovic. DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of MCC or any other U.S. Government entity. ii Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the Evaluation Design Report North-South Road Project in Mongolia TABLE OF CONTENTS < Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... iii List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... v I. Introduction and Background ............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Country Context ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objective of the Report .............................................................................................. 1 II. Overview of the Compact and the Intervention(s) Evaluated .......................................... 3 2.1 Overview of the project and implementation plan ..................................................... 3 2.2 Theory of Change ...................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Cost-benefit Analysis & Beneficiary Analysis ........................................................ 11 III. Evaluation Design Overview .............................................................................................. 13 3.1 Evaluation Areas and Questions .............................................................................. 13 3.2 Evaluation Design Overview ................................................................................... 15 IV. Evaluation Design – Evaluation Area 0: Engineering Analysis and Economic Model 24 4.1 Evaluation Questions ............................................................................................... 24 4.2 Evaluation Approach ............................................................................................... 24 4.3 Challenges ................................................................................................................ 25 V. Evaluation Design – Evaluation Area 1: Engineering Analysis and Economic Model 26 5.1 Evaluation Questions ............................................................................................... 26 5.2 Evaluation Methodology .......................................................................................... 26 5.3 Challenges ................................................................................................................ 44 VI. Evaluation Design – Evaluation Area 2: Maintenance .................................................... 45 6.1 Literature Review..................................................................................................... 45 6.2 Evaluation Questions ............................................................................................... 48 6.3 Evaluation Approach ............................................................................................... 50 6.4 Challenges ................................................................................................................ 56 VII. Evaluation Design – Evaluation Area 3: Road Usage Patterns ...................................... 57 7.1 Evaluation Questions ............................................................................................... 57 7.2 Evaluation Approach ............................................................................................... 57 7.3 Challenges ................................................................................................................ 65 iii Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the Evaluation Design Report North-South Road Project in Mongolia VIII. Evaluation Design – Evaluation Area 4: Transportation Market Structure ........ 67 8.1 Literature Review..................................................................................................... 67 8.2 Evaluation Questions ............................................................................................... 68 8.3 Evaluation Approach ............................................................................................... 70 8.4 Challenges ................................................................................................................ 72 IX. Administrative ..................................................................................................................... 73 9.1 Summary of IRB Requirements and Clearances ..................................................... 73 9.2 Approval from Local Authorities............................................................................. 73 9.3 Data Protection, Access, and Documentation .......................................................... 73 9.4 Dissemination Plan .................................................................................................. 74 9.5 Evaluation Team Roles and Responsibilities ........................................................... 74 9.6 Evaluation Timeline & Reporting Schedule ............................................................ 75 Annex I: References .................................................................................................................... 76 Annex II: Evaluation Work Plan .............................................................................................. 79 Annex III: Data Collection Work Plan ..................................................................................... 81 Annex IV: Illustrative Survey Instrument for Traffic Count ................................................. 88 Annex V: Rationale For Selecting the Traffic Count Locations ............................................ 89 Annex VI: Map of Traffic Count Locations ............................................................................. 91 Annex VII: Specifications for Video Recording of Road Condition ...................................... 92 Annex VIII: Evaluation Question 1 Changes In Data Collection .......................................... 95 Annex IX: Evaluation Question 2C and CHanges to the SOW ............................................ 102 Annex X: Stakeholder comments and Evaluator responses ................................................. 105 Annex XI: Evaluation budget .................................................................................................. 106 iv Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the Evaluation Design Report North-South Road Project in Mongolia LIST OF ACRONYMS AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic ADB Asian Development Bank ADT Average Daily Traffic AZZA Road Maintenance (Avto Zamin Zasvar Archlalt) BB Benkelman Beam BI Bump Integrators CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CBR California Bearing Ratio CP Condition Precedent DCP Dynamic Cone Penetrometer DOR Department of Roads EDR Evaluation Design Report EMC Evaluation Management Committee EMP Evaluation Management Process ERR/EIRR Economic (Internal) Rate of Return ESAL Equivalent Standard Axle Load GOM Government of Mongolia GPR Ground Penetrating Radar HDM-4 Highway Development and Management IDG International Development Group LLC IRB Institutional Review Board IRI International Roughness Index KII Key Informant Interview LOE Level of Effort LTPP Long-Term Pavement Performance M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MCA-M Millennium Challenge Account Mongolia MCC Millennium Challenge Corporation MNT Mongolian TUgrik MRTCUD Ministry of Road, Transport, Construction, and Urban Development MRTD Ministry of Roads and Transport Development MTC Manual Traffic Count MTZ Mongolian Railway Company NPV Net Present Value N-S North-South O-D Origin-Destination ORN Overseas Road Note PSR Present Serviceability Rating RED Road Economic Decision RTD Center Road and Transport Development Center RTRRMS Response Type Road Roughness Measuring System SN Structural Number SOE State-Owned Enterprise TA Technical Assistance v Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the Evaluation Design Report North-South Road Project in Mongolia TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit ToR Terms of Reference TT Travel Time UB Ulaanbaatar UBTZ Ulaanbaatar Railway Company USAID United States Agency for International Development VAT Value-Added Tax VOC Vehicle Operating Cost(s) ZU Zamyn-Uud vi Economic Analysis and Evaluation Services of the Evaluation Design Report North-South Road Project in Mongolia I. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1.1 COUNTRY CONTEXT The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and the Government of Mongolia (GOM) signed a five-year, $284.9 million Compact on October 22, 2007. The Compact
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