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Africa the Bottom Billion Becomes the Fastest Billion Africa Update Economics Economics and strategy research 19 July 2011 Charles Robertson +44 (207) 367-8235 [email protected] Yvonne Mhango Nothando Ndebele Africa The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion Important disclosures are found at the Disclosures Appendix. Communicated by Renaissance Securities (Cyprus) Limited, regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission, which together with non-US affiliates operates outside of the USA under the brand name of Renaissance Capital. 19 July 2011 Africa: The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion Renaissance Capital Contents Executive summary 3 A history of the world in 1,000 words 5 Modernisation theory 11 The Rostow take-off (or stages of growth) model 11 Africa 1960-1980: Stage one 11 Stage two in Africa: Education has improved, banking facilities are ready 12 Entering the third stage: Services over manufacturing 14 Africa’s demographic advantage over Asia 15 Urbanisation as a growth factor 17 The third stage – Investment requirements 18 Foreign financing 19 Domestic financing 20 Institutional developments 22 Growth drivers: Services and construction 24 The critics of catch-up theory 27 Your questions? 27 Infrastructure: the key to faster growth 29 in SSA 29 Finding 1: Infrastructure contributed to over half of Africa’s improved growth performance 29 Finding 2: Africa’s infrastructure lags its emerging markets peers 31 Finding 3: Socio-geo-economic issues add to the infrastructure challenges 31 Finding 4: Infrastructure services are twice as expensive as elsewhere 33 Finding 5: Power remains the continent’s largest infrastructure challenge 33 Finding 6: Africa’s infrastructure spending needs estimated at $93bn annually 36 Conclusion 37 What would result from sustained 38 higher growth? 38 What sectors and stocks do we prefer? 38 Appendix data 40 Disclosures appendix 41 2 Renaissance Capital Africa: The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion 19 July 2011 Executive summary Age is not often associated with speed. But Africa, the world’s oldest continent, now Africa’s boom is not just a China story has more of the world’s fastest-growing economies than any other. Over 2000-2009, 11 African countries grew at an annual rate of 7% or more – a rate sufficient to double the economy in 10 years. This is a big shift from the 1980s and 1990s, when just three African countries achieved this level of growth. Of these 11 booming economies, nine were in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); six benefited from higher energy prices, and five were not associated with either energy or metal exports: China’s demand for global commodities cannot be the only reason for this significant improvement. After a generation of relative stagnation in the late 20th century, many in Africa have now begun the long-awaited period of catch-up with the developed world. The bottom billion is becoming the fastest billion. Figure 1: Africa accelerates past Asia, with the highest number of countries that grew at 7% pa on average over 2000-2009 1980-1989 1990-99 2000-09 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 CIS CEE Asia Africa Middle East Middle East Latam/Caribbean Latam/Caribbean Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2011 Catch-up economic theory suggests all countries will eventually make the leap from It is easier than ever to catch up, as there subsistence farming to developed nation status, and that the later countries make is an increasing number of increasingly this transition, the quicker the growth when it finally happens. The technologies to rich countries to sell to boost productivity get cheaper and easier to import; Africa’s booming telecoms sector is just one example. The global markets available to the poorest societies get ever larger: In the 19th century, the UK had no countries to export to that were richer on a per-capita GDP basis; today, Africa has richer export markets to pick from – not just in North America and Europe, but also across an increasing number of Asian countries. Delivering that export growth is easier too, as telecoms opens up services as a route for export growth. Meanwhile, the evidence that effective policymaking can lead to growth becomes progressively harder to ignore – in recent years, even North Korea and Cuba have made efforts to bring market forces into their economic systems, but we find far more to be inspired by in Rwanda and Mauritius. Just how fast can growth be? The fact that 11 booming African nations have already Three countries grew at 10% or more for achieved at least 7% annual growth is yesterday’s story. What’s more important is a decade; more could easily follow that three have grown at 10% pa, and we believe more can achieve or better this. In our view, it would not take much for Nigeria to shift its 9% growth rate into double digits by widening access to cheaper electricity. We see scope for improved governance in Côte d’Ivoire, in turn enabling it to emulate Sierra Leone’s 10% annual growth rate. The positive examples provided by countries like Rwanda highlight the success that others across Africa might copy. 3 19 July 2011 Africa: The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion Renaissance Capital Foreign financing will provide some of Higher investment rates would go a long way towards broadening and accelerating the support growth across Africa. This investment might flow from external sources – as it did in South East Asia. Chinese lending to Africa is one example (see our China in Africa report, dated 21 April 2011), as is US retail giant Walmart’s investment in African retail. Foreign portfolio flows can reduce borrowing costs for companies, and provide equity financing for businesses to expand. Asia’s population is now in decline, We think such inflows look increasingly likely, as demographics favour direct Africa’s young adult population is investment in Africa. Asia’s young population is now declining – with East Asia’s growing at 15-20% dropping 27% this decade – and only SSA is positioned to experience 15-20% growth in the crucial 15-24 age range over the coming decades, which will provide the plentiful labour force the world economy will rely on. SSA is better educated than ever; Better still, this workforce is far better educated than a generation or two ago, Botswana, Mauritius and SA have a after SSA saw nearly a tenfold rise in the gross secondary school enrolment rate to higher percentage in secondary 29% by 2005 from just 3% in 1960 (the latter was surely a contributory factor to the education than China or India weakness of the 1980s). These are now around the levels of Mexico or Turkey in the 1970s which helped pave the way to their strong growth performance in subsequent decades. Africa’s workforce is now well educated enough to support the take-off. Higher investment (e.g. in infrastructure) Most positive would be a restoration of trust in the domestic economic environment could add 2 ppts to GDP growth and from locals themselves, and a recognition that returns on investment in Africa can would have put 21 African countries into far outweigh those now available in the West. This can already be seen in the re- the high-growth category investment of profits by African businesses. We estimate higher investment could add 2 ppts to GDP growth rates (see pages 29 to 37), and note that this would have increased the number of African countries doubling their economies within a decade to 21 over 2000-2009. The challenge for investors will be in accessing the multiple growth stories that could result from this (see page 38 for our current stock recommendations). Even a slight improvement in the growth rate over the next two decades will produce some remarkable results. If, instead of nominal dollar growth of 9% annually, we saw 10%, then Nigeria would become a $1trn economy by 2027. Sub-Saharan Africa – excluding South Africa – alone would rise from $700bn (similar to Indonesia) to $4.5trn by 2030, assuming 10% growth in nominal dollar terms. These may well prove to be conservative estimates. The creation of a virtuous circle of higher growth leading to better governance – in turn attracting more investment and faster growth – is under way. Democracies are becoming safer across the continent. We would not be surprised to see Africa recording some of the highest growth rates ever achieved in the coming decades. 4 Renaissance Capital Africa: The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion 19 July 2011 A history of the world in 1,000 words There is still no consensus on why the UK became the first country to experience an Why was the UK the first to modernise? industrial revolution and a relative growth explosion. From 0-1000 AD, UK GDP was roughly stable at $400 per capita – roughly 15% below Chinese and Indian wealth levels. By 1500 AD, the UK had superseded both these great Asian powers, but with per-capita GDP of $714, it did not quite equal France and clearly lagged the financial giant that was Medici Italy with per-capita GDP of $1,100. Even 200 years later, after an impressive 0.3% annual growth rate, UK per-capita GDP was $1,250 and double that of China or India, but only just over half that of the new financial powerhouse that was The Netherlands, on $2,130. The great leap forward only kicked in from 1820 to 1850, when annual per-capita GDP began rising by 1.0%, after which UK per-capita income was the highest in the world. Figure 2: Per-capita GDP from 0-1870 AD, constant 1990 PPP dollars United Kingdom France Italy India China Netherlands 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1850 1870 Source: Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD, Angus Maddison Naturally the Victorian British had many explanations for this, many of which It was not just Britain’s Victorian values – assumed an innate English superiority over other peoples (and most satisfyingly other European nations quickly followed over their age-old enemies, the French).
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