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F.I.T.T. for Investors the Rising Star of Africa

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F.I.T.T. for Investors the Rising Star of Africa Deutsche Bank Markets Research Industry Date 4 February 2015 Beer Sub-Saharan Africa Consumer Staples Beverage Wynand Van Zyl Research Analyst (+27) 11 775-7185 [email protected] Tristan Van Strien Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-77654 [email protected] Gerry Gallagher Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-50251 [email protected] F.I.T.T. for investors The rising star of Africa Driving the next decade of beer growth Over the next decade, Africa should account for 40% of global volume and profit growth. In our view, population dynamics will drive structural growth; realistic pricing will accelerate per capita growth, taking share from illicit alcohol in a continent where only 15% can currently afford a beer. Structurally protective "moats" and strong positions for established players help ensure sustainable profits. Any corporate activity would likely be limited to the last independent brewer, Castel, and consolidation in ancillary businesses including soft drinks. Heineken (Buy) and SABMiller (Hold) appear best positioned to capture the growth. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 148/04/2014. Deutsche Bank Markets Research Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Date 4 February 2015 Consumer Staples Beer Beverage FITT Research Wynand Van Zyl Research Analyst The rising star of Africa (+27) 11 775-7185 [email protected] Driving the next decade of beer growth Tristan Van Strien Over the next decade, Africa should account for 40% of global volume and Research Analyst profit growth. In our view, population dynamics will drive structural growth; (+44) 20 754-77654 realistic pricing will accelerate per capita growth, taking share from illicit [email protected] alcohol in a continent where only 15% can currently afford a beer. Structurally protective "moats" and strong positions for established players help ensure Gerry Gallagher sustainable profits. Any corporate activity would likely be limited to the last independent brewer, Castel, and consolidation in ancillary businesses including Research Analyst soft drinks. Heineken (Buy) and SABMiller (Hold) appear best positioned to (+44) 20 754-50251 capture the growth. [email protected] Africa to lead the growth in beer Companies Featured The next decade will see disproportionate growth in beer driven by Africa, with volume rising 8% per annum, on our estimates. Unlike the previous decade Heineken (HEIN.AS),EUR66.15 Buy where most of the volume growth was driven by China, the gains in Africa 2013A 2014E 2015E should mean profitable growth as high revenues and margins look to be DB EPS (EUR) 2.75 3.06 3.29 sustainable by established players with high barriers to entry. We expect the P/E (x) 19.2 21.6 20.1 profit pool in Africa to expand US$5billion in EBIT by 2025. EV/EBITA (x) 14.5 16.0 14.8 Favorable population dynamics, especially with the key beer-drinking 20-35 Diageo (DGE.L),GBP1,926.00 Buy year-old cohort expanding almost 3% per year, should drive half the growth. 2014A 2015E 2016E Realistic pricing at or below inflation should raise per capita consumption, DB EPS (GBP) 100.07 91.80 100.14 taking share from illicit alcohol, which accounts for 80% of all alcohol on the P/E (x) 19.3 21.0 19.2 continent. Growth will not be smooth; it never is in Africa. However, the EV/EBITA (x) 17.6 18.4 16.0 swings in commodities such as oil in Nigeria have a nuanced impact on the robustness of beer growth. SABMiller (SABJ.J),ZAR620.78 Hold 2014A 2015E 2016E Castel, Coke, Guinness DB EPS (USD) 2.39 2.43 2.56 Family-owned Castel, accounting for $2bn of EBITDA in Africa, is often seen as P/E (x) 20.8 22.2 21.0 a potential target for future M&A on the continent – but a deal would be more EV/EBITA (x) 15.4 16.1 15.5 complicated for a company with no need to sell. More activity is likely in Source: Deutsche Bank ancillary beverages to leverage the brewing platforms of established players. Further consolidation of the Coca Cola bottlers, led by SABMiller, should lead Share of EBIT from Africa activity in the short term. Despite its advantaged position, if Diageo’s underperformance in beer continues, we see the company possibly exiting the 40% operational elements in Africa, but not beer per se. 35% 31% Heineken and SABMiller best positioned 30% 27% Twenty companies have significant exposure to beer in Africa, 17 of which are 21% listed in frontier markets or have low liquidity. Of the major players, Heineken 20% 2015e has the best exposure, potentially grabbing a third of the growth in Africa over 2019e the next decade. This, coupled with the best growth profile in beer and strong 10% brand-building capabilities on a reduced cost base, leads us to reiterate our Buy. SABMiller could capture over a quarter of the growth and has proven, 0% SABMiller Heineken superior management capability to realize its potential. However, headwinds in core markets, and the costs – financial and managerial – associated with centralization programs offset its prospects; we maintain our Hold. Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Company reports Valuations and risks We value our companies using DCF models. We separately outline the assumptions and risks for each company DCF analysis in this report. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 148/04/2014. 4 February 2015 Beverage Beer Table Of Contents Executive summary ............................................................. 3 Key points and charts ......................................................................................... 3 Africa Beer ........................................................................... 7 The global beer growth engine ........................................................................... 7 HEIN and SAB best positioned to capture growth ............................................ 12 Realistic pricing unlocks and protects growth .................................................. 16 Population and GDP drive structural growth .................................................... 20 Beer’s impressive ability to manage the headwinds ......................................... 23 African M&A ..................................................................................................... 25 The investable universe in Africa ...................................................................... 30 Heineken ........................................................................... 34 An African Star ................................................................................................. 34 The strongest growth platform in beer ............................................................. 40 Valuation and key graphs ................................................................................. 43 SABMiller ........................................................................... 48 An African Eagle ............................................................................................... 48 The other 2/3rds clipping the wings ................................................................. 56 The unnecessary put option ............................................................................. 59 Valuation and key charts .................................................................................. 61 Africa leading the growth .................................................. 64 The global beer growth engine ......................................................................... 64 Key markets for growth .................................................................................... 68 Population drives staples growth, and African beer ......................................... 75 Plenty of room in per caps ................................................................................ 78 Affordability remains key .................................................................................. 82 Impact of GDP growth on per capita growth .................................................... 87 Taking share from the bottom of the pyramid .................................................. 90 The evolving brewing landscape ...................................................................... 94 Diageo - beer's secondary role to spirits........................................................... 99 Castel - acting like owners, because they are ................................................. 110 The KO opportunity ......................................................... 115 Beer & Coke works ......................................................................................... 115 The KO African landscape .............................................................................
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