Deutsche Bank Markets Research Industry Date 4 February 2015 Beer Sub-Saharan Africa Consumer Staples Beverage Wynand Van Zyl Research Analyst (+27) 11 775-7185
[email protected] Tristan Van Strien Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-77654
[email protected] Gerry Gallagher Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-50251
[email protected] F.I.T.T. for investors The rising star of Africa Driving the next decade of beer growth Over the next decade, Africa should account for 40% of global volume and profit growth. In our view, population dynamics will drive structural growth; realistic pricing will accelerate per capita growth, taking share from illicit alcohol in a continent where only 15% can currently afford a beer. Structurally protective "moats" and strong positions for established players help ensure sustainable profits. Any corporate activity would likely be limited to the last independent brewer, Castel, and consolidation in ancillary businesses including soft drinks. Heineken (Buy) and SABMiller (Hold) appear best positioned to capture the growth. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 148/04/2014. Deutsche Bank Markets Research Sub-Saharan Africa Industry Date 4 February 2015 Consumer Staples Beer Beverage FITT Research Wynand Van Zyl Research Analyst The rising star of Africa (+27) 11 775-7185
[email protected] Driving the next decade of beer growth Tristan Van Strien Over the next decade, Africa should account for 40% of global volume and Research Analyst profit growth.