Document Control Prof. A.K. Gosain Dr. Sandhya Rao Ms. Shradha Ganeriwala Ms. Puja Singh Ms. Anamika Arora Mr. Ankush Mahajan Disclaimer “The data and information used for preparing this report have been sourced from secondary sources including state government departments, published sources of Government of India, and climate change assessment made by the consultants. While due care has been taken to ensure authenticity of the data and other information used, any inadvertent wrong data or information used is regretted. We are not liable to any legal or penal responsibilities arising from this and also from the use of this report by anyone. Anupam Rajan, IAS Government of Madhya Pradesh Principal Secretary Department of Environment Mantralaya, Vallabh Bhawan, Bhopal-462004 (MP.) Tel. : (0755) 2460038 Preface The study to assess the climate change risks and vulnerabilities of Madhya Pradesh was taken up under the collaborative project of the Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change, Swiss Agency for Development & Cooperation, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Government of Madhya Pradesh on Strengthening State Strategies for Climate Actions, understanding that Adaptation is the State’s key concern with respect to Climate Change. Realizing that Vulnerability Assessment (VA) would support in formulating robust adaptation strategies for climate actions and in integrating climate change concerns in sub-national planning processes, the State Government agreed to undertake this study. This study incorporates recent advancements in climate science and the latest emission scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 5th Assessment report. Two key challenges before embarking on such a comprehensive State Level assessment was ensuring participation from stakeholders and collecting requisite data from different sectors for different timelines. Uncertainties and constraints of modelling, availability of data across sectors and different timelines, projections for different time scales etc. added to the complexities. Nevertheless, I believe, a genuine effort has been made to overcome these aspects and meaningful inferences have been drawn from the Vulnerability Assessment study. Translating this academic activity into informed practices and establishing this as connect between science, policy and actions would be the task ahead for us. I am aware that there are ample scopes for further improvement and refinement of this report as the knowledge is ever evolving. Despite all the barriers and limitations, I am sure that this report will serve the purpose of looking at the Climate Change related developmental issues in a congruent manner. I thank MoEFCC, SDC, EPCO and UNDP for taking up this study for Madhya Pradesh. Anupam Rajan Director General Environment Planning and Coordination Organisation (EPCO) Bhopal P.Narahari Environment Planning & Executive Director Coordination Organisation (An Autonomous organisation, under Govt. of M.P.) Paryavaran Parisar, E-5 Sector, Arera Colony, Message The impacts of climate change are increasingly being felt around the world. In the context of Madhya Pradesh, it may become a major environmental threat to the State’s development progress in the coming decades as it could have adverse impacts on food security, natural resources, human health and economic activities. With most of the population dependent on the climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture and forestry for livelihood, any adverse climatic impacts on these sectors will undermine the development efforts of the State. Hence, it becomes imperative to first develop a better scientific understanding of the climate change risks, vulnerability & associated impacts. In this context, I hope that the current vulnerability assessment study is an important milestone towards enhancing the understanding of climate change and its impacts on the key sectors which would assist the policymakers and other stakeholders in developing a range of adaptation options in the future. I appreciate SKMCCC and UNDP for taking this initiative in developing this vulnerability assessment report. P.Narahari Executive Director Acknowledgement The “Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for Madhya Pradesh” represents a collaborative effort, made possible by the input and feedback received from experts in the field of climate change and from National and State Level Government partners working on issues to combat climate change. This report has undertaken climate change vulnerability assessment of select sectors of Water, Forest, Agriculture & Health for the state of Madhya Pradesh. The main purpose of vulnerability assessment is to identify and prioritize the regions and sectors which are likely to be adversely impacted by climate change so as to enable development of adaptation practices and strategies to help mainstream the climate change in to the broader developmental programs and projects. The report has been prepared under the project “Strengthening State Strategies for Climate Actions” being implemented by UNDP in partnership with MoEFCC and supported by Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). UNDP extends special thanks to Mr. Ravi Shankar Prasad (IAS), Joint Secretary, MoEFCC, Mr. Anupam Rajan (IAS), Principal Secretary, Environment Department, Govt. of Madhya Pradesh, for their insights and guidance. UNDP take this opportunity to also thank Mr. P. Narahari (IAS), Executive Director, Environmental Planning and Coordination Organisation (EPCO), Govt. of Madhya Pradesh, for his guidance and support in finalising the report. This report could not have completed in this form without the support of Mr. Lokendra Thakkar, Coordinator, SKMCCC, EPCO, Government of Madhya Pradesh. Special thanks to the staff of Madhya Pradesh State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change (SKMCCC) Saransh Bajpai, Pratik Barapatre, Ramratan Simaiya, Ravi Shah and Raashee Abhilashi for their inputs and support in finalizing the report. UNDP acknowledges the key role played by UNDP State and National teams for leading the process and hosting a number of workshops and meetings which facilitated collaboration and partnerships. UNDP acknowledges the work of the key authors of the report Professor A.K.Gosain, IIT Delhi and Dr. Sandhya Rao, Integrated Natural Resource Management Consultants (INRM) and her team in carrying out the vulnerability assessment study and report writing. Table of Contents Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Madhya Pradesh Introduction 1 Study Area 1 1Purpose of Vulnerability Assessment 2 Definition of Vulnerability to Climate Change 2 Approach and Methodology 3 Methodology 5 Selection of Indicators 5 Data Sources 6 Data Collection 7 Data Cleaning and Quality Checking 7 Limitations of Indicator Base Method 8 Strengths and Weaknesses of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) 8 Limitations 8 Limitations on Data 8 Madhya Pradesh District Vulnerability Profiles 9 Current and Projected Vulnerability Profile 9 Current Vulnerability Profile 9 Projected Vulnerability Profile 13 Disaggregated Sectoral Vulnerability 15 Social Vulnerability 15 Economic Vulnerability 16 Extreme Climate Vulnerability 18 Water Resource Vulnerability 20 Forest Vulnerability 22 Agriculture Vulnerability 24 Summary - District Vulnerability 26 Appendix I 35 List of Indicators for District Vulnerability Assessment 35 2 Tables for District Vulnerability 49 Appendix II 64 Software Used 64 3 Normalization of Indicator Data 64 Calculation of Weights 65 Calculation of Indices 65 Principle Component Analysis (PCA) 65 Cluster Analysis 66 List of Table Table 1: District current composite vulnerability along with disaggregated sub components for districts of Madhya Pradesh 27 Table 2: Current and projected composite vulnerability for districts of Madhya Pradesh 30 List of Figures Figure 1: Flowchart for construction of Composite Vulnerability Index 4 Figure 2: Current Composite Vulnerability map for Districts of Madhya Pradesh 11 Figure 3: Disaggregated sectoral vulnerability contributing to Current Composite Vulnerability for districts of Madhya Pradesh 12 Figure 4: Projected Composite Vulnerability map for districts of Madhya Pradesh for IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios 14 Figure 5: Social Vulnerability map for districts of Madhya Pradesh for current vulnerability 15 Figure 6: Economic Vulnerability map for districts of Madhya Pradesh for Current vulnerability 17 Figure 7: Extreme climate vulnerability map for districts of Madhya Pradesh under current and projected climate scenarios 18 Figure 8: Water resource Vulnerability map for districts of Madhya Pradesh under current and projected climate scenarios 20 Figure 9: Forest Vulnerability map for districts of Madhya Pradesh under current and projected climate scenarios 23 Figure 10: Agriculture Vulnerability map for districts of Madhya Pradesh under current and projected climate scenarios 25 List of Tables in Appendix Table A- 1: Sectors and the associated indicators considered for climate change vulnerability assessment for districts of Madhya Pradesh 35 Table A- 2: Rationale for classifying indicators of vulnerability as Exposure, Sensitivity or Adaptive Capacity 41 Table A- 3: District wise Composite vulnerability index values, ranks and vulnerability category under current and projected climate scenarios 49 Table A- 4: District wise Social vulnerability Index values, ranks and category for current vulnerability 52 Table A- 5: District wise Economic vulnerability Index values,