statistical society of australia incorporated newsletter

May, 2003 Number 103

Registered by Australia Post Publication No. NBH3503 issn 0314-6820 New Year’s Honours for Professor Chris Heyde

In the 2003 New Year’s Honours, a gifted schoolteacher sparked have two sons Neil and Eric. Chris’ Professor Chris Heyde was his interest in mathematics. After first job was as an Assistant Professor awarded Membership of the Order leaving school, he enrolled at at Michigan State University of Australia (AM). Such awards the University of Sydney, in 1964-5; in 1965 he moved to are not lightly offered: they are graduating with a First Class Sheffield and later Manchester, intended to recognize the Member’s Honours degree in Mathematics where he was appointed Special contribution to Australian society. in 1961, and receiving the University Lecturer in charge of the Statistical Chris has undoubtedly given much Medal. He won a Commonwealth Laboratory in 1967. He returned to to this country: a brief account of his Postgraduate Research Scholarship Australia in 1968 as a Reader in Ted contributions (apart from his well to the Australian National Hannan’s Department of Statistics known research) follows. University (ANU), and earned his at the ANU. Chris was born in Sydney on 20 PhD in Statistics from Pat Moran’s In 1975, he joined Joe Gani in the April 1939, and went to school at Department in 1965. He married CSIRO Division of Mathematics Barker College, Hornsby, where Elizabeth James later that year; they and Statistics (DMS), first as a Senior Principal Research Scientist, and then as Chief Research Scientist and Assistant Chief of the Division from 1977. He was instrumental in carrying out many of the modernizing changes which enhanced DMS’s international renown. In 1981, when Joe left DMS, Chris continued his work as Acting Chief of the Division, until his appointment to the Chair of Statistics at the University of Melbourne in 1983. He returned to the ANU in 1986 as Professor and Head of the Department of Statistics in the Institute of Advanced Chris and his wife Dr Beth Heyde in the grounds of Government House Studies. He served as Foundation following the award ceremony. Dean of the School of Mathematical Sciences for three years from 1989, and is currently Professor in the In this issue ANU’s Mathematical Sciences Editorial ...... 3 SSAI Operational Plan ...... 9 Institute (the School’s new name). Since 1993, he has also served for Competition Results ...... 3 SSAI Strategic Plan 2003-2007 ..11 the first semester each year as Member News ...... 4 Branch Reports ...... 16 Professor in the Department of Accreditation...... 5 Conferences ...... 24 Statistics at Columbia University, New York, where he is the Director Honours for Chris Heyde

of the Columbia Center for Applied for Stochastic Processes and their Probability. Applications and the 4th Australian Throughout his career, Chris Statistical Conference in Canberra has taken a serious interest in in 1978, the Bicentennial National PO Box 85, the history and development of Mathematical Sciences Congress Ainslie ACT 2602 Mathematics, Statistics and more in 1988, the Australian Academy Phone/Fax (02) 6249 8266 generally Science in Australia. He of Science Symposium on the Role Email: [email protected] has written a book on Bienayme of Mathematics in Science in 1990, Society Web Page with Eugene Seneta, and co-edited and the annual Applied Probability http://www.statsoc.org.au “Statisticians of the Centuries” with Day Conferences at Columbia him. He was elected to Fellowship University. He has been involved in of the Australian Academy of many other conferences, which are Editors Science in 1977, and has since omitted only for reasons of space. served it in various capacities: he Chris has also contributed a great Alice Richardson, School of Mathematics was a member of the Sectional deal to Australian and international and Statistics, University of Canberra, Committee 1 for Mathematics in PO Box 1, Belconnen ACT 2616 Email: journals through his broad editorial 1978-82 (Chairman 1980-82), a [email protected] expertise. As Associate Editor of the Fax: (02) 6201 2683 Council Member in 1986-93, Vice- President in 1988-89 and Treasurer J.Aust.Math.Soc., he was responsible Eden Brinkley, Australian Bureau of in 1989-93. He was Chairman of for probability and statistics Statistics, Locked Bag 10, Belconnen, the Executive Committee of the submissions to the journal in 1972-74. ACT 2616 He was Editor of the Aust.J.Statist. Email: [email protected] Australian Foundation for Science in 1973-78, and Associate Editor Phone: (02) 6252 6068 in 1990-92, and has since been a Director of this Foundation. of Ann.Probab. in 1974-78, Correspondence Maths.Operat.Res. in 1976-90, ISI The Australian Mathematical Review in 1980-87, Adv.Appl. Prob. Please direct all editorial correspondence Society (AMS), the Statistical in 1972-82, and Stoch.Proc.Applns to Alice Richardson. Society of Australia (SSA) and the in 1972-82. He has been one of the International Statistical Institute Disclaimer Editors of Math.Scientist since 1982, (ISI) owe much to his endeavours. The views of contributors to this Coordinating Editor for J.Appl.Prob. He served as a member of the Newsletter should not be attributed to and Adv.Appl.Prob. in 1982-89, and the Statistical Society of Australia, Inc. AMS Council in 1980-83, and was Vice-President in 1981. He was Editor-in-Chief of both these journals since 1990. He has also been one of Subscriptions Vice-President of the ISI in 1985-87 and again in 1993-95; he was also a the Editors of the Springer Series The Newsletter of the Statistical Society in Probability and its Applications of Australia is supplied free to all member of the ISI’s Bernoulli Society members of the society. Any others Council in 1979-87, its President since 1985. His high standards and wishing to subscribe to the Newsletter Elect in 1983-85, and its President fair-minded approach to authors’ may do so at an annual cost of A$25.00 in 1985-87. He was a member of submissions have earned him the for an issue of four numbers. the SSA’s Canberra Branch Council respect of all professional colleagues in 1973-83, and again in 1987-89, in Australia and overseas. Advertising becoming its Branch President in Throughout his career, Chris has Advertising will be carried in the 1977-79. While at the University of altruistically devoted much of his Newsletter on any matters which the Melbourne, he was a member of Editors feel are of interest to the members time to his colleagues, to the various the SSA’s Victorian Branch Council of the Society. For details of advertising Societies to which he belongs, and in 1984-86, and Branch President rates, etc. contact the Editors at the above more generally to the development addresses. in 1985-86. He was a member of the SSA’s Central Council in 1973- of Mathematics and Statistics in Printer 86, and the Society’s President in Australia and internationally. I believe that it is for this continuing National Capital Printing 1979-81. He has been a member 22 Pirie Street, Fyshwick ACT 2609 of the Australian Mathematics dedication to his ideals that he Competition Board since 1981, and was awarded his AM. All of his an active member of the Board of colleagues congratulate him most DEADLINE FOR the Australian Mathematics Trust warmly on this well merited award: NEXT ISSUE: since 1992. they are proud to have so selfless a colleague for a friend. 20 JULY 2003 Chris has organized a large number of important conferences, Joe Gani among them the 8th Conference Australian National University

2 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 Editorial

The Editors are delighted to feature after the deadline; it contains live Chris Heyde’s Australia Day medal hyperlinks that have been checked; in this issue of the newsletter. The it can sustain a dynamic debate Statistical Society has of course (issue 57 online has correspondence got its own system for recognising on “NZ needs maths graduates”); contributions, including service if someone sends in an excess of awards and honorary life material I can abstract it in the membership. It is great news when hardcopy & refer to the online such contributions are recognised version; and I keep in practice at web by the general community as well. programming and enjoy writing it. One could argue as a downside The SSAI Newsletter Editors. Last issue we wrote in the “website that it’s accessible to non-members, of the month” about the website to the Editors at the addresses on but one could also argue that as an of this newsletter, which currently page 2. upside!” As the NZSA Newsletter has one pdf version of a previous appears but twice a year, there are Finally, the editors are interested newsletter. The Editors hope also benefits in the timeliness of the in members’ experiences in to expand this collection in the content of the newsletter. applying statistical methods in their next few months. While we were workplaces, and this includes the researching this issue, it came to We are not planning to follow this use of technology such as statistical our attention that the New Zealand route at the moment, as a recent software. To that end, Paul Barrett, Statistical Society (NZSA) has an survey of SSA members suggested Honorary Senior Research Fellow online version of its newsletter as a strong desire to settle down with a at the University of Auckland, has well as the hard copy. The Editor, paper copy of the newsletter over a provided a review of the statistical Roger Littlejohn, explains the cup of coffee four times a year. Has software SYSTAT which appears benefits of this system. “It doesn’t your view on this issue changed later in this issue. If you wish to have space & format constraints; it recently? We’d love to hear from contribute a review of another can carry submissions that come in you. Please write or send email package, please contact the editors. Competition results Competition Last issue we asked you to come on to King’s. A long time ago now up with statistical limericks. Geoff being eighty-six! Who is the best-known Riespreier offers the following one statistician who ever lived? Fun and Games at UCL on a Bayesian theme. An article by Gerald Hahn, Karl Pearson once had the brilliant entitled “Deming and the The Frequentist called him a liar! notion proactive statistician”, But the Bayesian fought back with fire: To calibrate his data by a measure appears in the November “Those data you’re coddling called the Standard Deviation 2002 issue of The American are no match for my modelling, But in his excitement off his Galton Statistician And my hyper-parameterised prior!” with a claim Chair of Eugenics he fell (p. 290) that “Deming is Carl O’Monty has turned his poetic With such a bump that it disturbed probably the best-known skill to stochastic processes. dead Jeremy Bentham’s body on statistician, in the eyes of I sing to the siren Stochastic display at his UCL the general public, who ever Who turns rigid lines to elastic, And poor wounded Karl found that lived”. Do you agree? Why is Sharp corners go curvy, Isaac Newton’s gravity in the fall it so? If not, who would you Normal space topsy-turvy! had given him a massive Multiple suggest instead? Regression It’s a stodgy old world gone fantastic! So (1) who is the best- Norbert Wiener was going insane, Finally, Ken Brewer has come up known statistician who when his brownie-in-motion went with a beauty about Jerzy Neyman. ever lived, and why? (2) Who ought to be the best- tame. When that great statistician, known statistician who ever Whisked him out for a walk J. Neyman, lived, and why? Submit your ‘round a randomised block, claimed, “Confidence intervals – yea answer to either or both and his brownie was never the same. man – questions to the Editors by they’ve been a great hit!” This one from our featured member 20 July. The answer to each of a few issues ago, Frank Hansford- he had then to admit, question should be 25 words Miller. Frank tells us that he took his “Understanding them’s hard for the or less. first degree at UCL and then went layman ...”

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 3 SSAI new Executive Officer Thanks for a job well done! Jane Waslin was appointed as recent position was in Jakarta, Executive Officer of SSAI in late Indonesia where she managed an February 2003. Her role is to international community activity manage the ‘business’ aspects of centre, and prior to moving to the Society and ASPAI including Jakarta she was Executive Director the membership records, financial of the Institute of Foresters of matters, publications schedules Australia, based in Canberra. and provide management support Jane sees her role at SSAI as one for the Executive, Central Council, providing a central point of contact Accreditation Committee, Branches, for the variety of ‘customers’, both Conference Organising Committee within and outside SSAI who seek and members. assistance while consolidating the Jane has a Bachelor of Arts from Society’s records to make sure all ANU and this month completed a our legal obligations are met. Graduate Diploma of Management Jane is employed on a part-time from UNE. She has extensive basis and can be contacted either experience managing member- by email ([email protected]), Lesley Sieper has moved on from funded organisations, both in telephone (02) 6249 8266 or via mail her Administrative Officer role Australia and overseas. Her most at the Society’s postal address. with the Society after five years of valued service. Lesley contributed PICK UP A GREAT MOBILE DEAL! very significantly to the smooth running of the Society in that time, SSAI members can access mobile phone plans with low business call being heavily involved in a wide rates. Designed for people who use their phone primarily for business, but range of central administration pay their own account. activities, the Accreditation Committee, the Newsletter and Features include: the Journal. Lesley could always • Range of plans for light and heavy users be relied upon to get the job done, • $0 handsets available* and she always managed to do it • Plans for individual and business customers with a smile. In recognition of her • Call rates from just 10c per 30 seconds** outstanding service to the Society, Lesley was awarded a Certificate For more information call our Member Alliance Team on of Appreciation at the Australian 1300 300 237, or visit www.member-advantage.com/ssai Statistical Conference in Canberra last year. From all those that Terms & Conditions apply. *Dependent on which Business Edge One/Alliance mobile plan is taken out. **Flagfall applies worked with Lesley we wish her all the very best for the future. Enjoy the benefits of The Qantas Club at discounted rates Join or renew through Member Advantage today and receive all the benefits The Qantas Club has to offer at discounted rates. New Member 2 year membership $689.53^ SAVE $179.63! *Discount rates on 1 year, Partner and Renewal memberships also available Whenever you travel make The Qantas Club your first destination for business or leisure. Enter a quiet haven where you can relax and unwind, or get down to business, without interruption. Your Qantas Club membership entitles you to exclusive services and privileges designed to make each journey as effortless as possible. Your Qantas Club benefits go beyond the comfort and convenience offered by our lounges, you will also enjoy a range of priority travel services, including dedicated Qantas Club check-in desks, extra baggage allowance, priority baggage handling in Australia, and priority waitlisting. As a Qantas Club member, you also receive complimentary membership into The Qantas Frequent Flyer Program (normally $82.50). Earn points when you fly and redeem them on a range of travel and non-travel related products and services. To join now contact Member Advantage on 1300 853 352 or email us at [email protected] ^This price includes Qantas Club joining fee and $55 Member Advantage management fee.

4 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 SSAI’s Public Awareness Campaign kicks off

Statistics. A job for professionals

After years of slow preparation, two committees ● the PowerPoint presentation that Dennis Trewin and two sets of professional advisors, the SSAI has will use in his visits launched a Public Awareness campaign. Both these resources are available at http:// The campaign has two goals: www.statsoc.org.au/PublicAwareness. Printed versions of the booklet will also be available. ● to advertise the risks of an unprofessional approach to handling statistical data If the materials inspire you to produce more Success and Disaster stories, please email them to ● to promote the benefits of a professional approach, [email protected] using professionally accredited statisticians – i.e. to support the SSAI Professional Accreditation program It has been developed in consultation with Julian Cribb and Associates. Julian, a former science writer for The Australian, also spent several years developing and managing the CSIRO Public Awareness unit. The campaign will be customised to specific groups, commencing with Federal Government departments. The strategies to be used include: 1. an advertising campaign in national and Canberra newpapers, featuring cartoons by the leading Canberra-based cartoonist, Geoff Pryor 2. press releases 3. letter drops to Federal parliamentarians 4. a visit and presentation to senior bureaucrats by Dennis Trewin Supporting materials that may be of interest to SSAI members include ● a professionally produced booklet of statistical Success and Disaster stories, some of them illustrated by Geoff Pryor’s cartoons which will be reproduced in this and following issues of the SSAI Newsletter

Accreditation in the second half of 1998. Professional Since these people have already established their statistical Development Re-accreditation competence, the Committee Accreditation began in the The Society is building a portfolio only needs to ensure that the Society in January 1998, and of supported professional person has “continuing contact/ each person accredited was given development workshops and accreditation for 5 years, ending involvement with Statistics activities. Accredited members on 31 December of the fifth and the practice of Statistics”. will be able to attend these at a year after accreditation. Hence, The Committee, however, is discounted rate. The first of these accreditation for those approved interested in the professional courses was held in Canberra during that first year runs out at development of our statisticians, in 2001 and we are pleased to the end of 2003. so the form seeks information announce that the Committee has approved two more such Over the coming weeks, the about activities undertaken in Society will be sending out re- courses that will be run later in recent years. The form is already accreditation forms to those who 2003. Information about the first were accredited in the first half available on the website at http: of these, on Longitudinal Data, of 1998. In a few months, we will //www.statsoc.org.au/pdfs/ is included elsewhere in this send forms to those accredited Reaccreditform.pdf Newsletter.

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 5 6 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 Software Review: Systat 10.2

SYSTAT is an extensive suite of The list of Statistical Analysis routines available to a user in this package statistical analysis routines for is significant: analysing quantitative data, explicitly written for use on personal computers, Bootstrapping and Sampling Nonparametric Statistics and now in its tenth release. It arrived Classification and Regression Trees Partial Order Scalogram Analysis nicely packaged with 6 hardcopy Cluster Analysis RAMONA Path Analysis manuals (2000+ pages) and an Conjoint Analysis Perceptual Mapping (MDPREF, Biplot etc.) installation CD and installed with no Correlations, Similarities, and Distance Measures Power Analysis problems whatsoever. A set of icons Correspondence Analysis Probit Analysis was created in a program folder – with Cross-tabulations Rank Regression links to online help, the pdf format Descriptive Statistics Ridge Regression manual files, the standalone ASCII Experiment Design Set and Canonical Correlation text editor (FEdit), and the program Discriminant Analysis Signal Detection Analysis itself. On the review machine (a 2GHz Factor Analysis Data Smoothing Pentium-4 standalone PC), non-cached Linear Models 1: Linear Regression Spatial Statistics load time for SYSTAT was 4.1 seconds Linear Models II: Analysis of Variance Survival Analysis in comparison to that for STATISTICA Linear Models III: General Linear Models T-tests 6 and SPSS 10.07 of 6.5 seconds. Logistic Regression Item Analysis including 1-2 parameter IRT The software package has a very Loglinear Models Time Series Analysis clean user-interface with the screen Missing Value Analysis Two Stage Least Squares partitioned into three key areas. Mixed Regression Multidimensional Scaling The first is an “output organizer”, Nonlinear Models a navigation screen typical of most statistical software nowadays which graph from text through to axes, points, helped make this a very stable and displays the analyses that are run on and lines, can be edited and adjusted. reliable software analysis system. It a dataset in tree-view. The second is This is an entire graphics package is an extremely attractive proposition the “output pane” which displays in its own right. The Influence plots, for educational use in literally any the text and graphics of any results LOWESS, and other data smoothers area where undergraduate and from statistical analyses. The third available to the user within the graphics postgraduate statistical methods are is a “command” area in which text subsystems are a fine embodiment of taught. Further, given the advanced commands can be typed in order to exploratory data analysis. specification of many of its routines, it manipulate the data, or to construct For automation of repetitive analyses can also serve as a substantive research and/or preview a command file; and for creating standard analysis tool in its own right. alternatively, it can be designated as a procedures, SYSTAT contains its own Purchase Information “command logging” region. command language. This consists Contact Systat Software Inc., 501 Getting data into SYSTAT is of meta-commands which run Canal Boulevard, Suite C, Richmond, achieved either by direct keying into entire analyses from an “optioned” CA 94804-2028, USA. Tel: +1 -510- a spreadsheet or by the import of command-line statement, very much 231-4786, Fax: +1-510-231-4789, stored data in various file formats like SPSS in form and utility. It also email: [email protected], web: such as ASCII, SPSS, Excel, SAS, provides a rudimentary procedural www.systat.com. A single-user BMDP, ArcView, and ODBC via customisation language, SYSTAT SQL. Exporting of data and results BASIC. This programming language permanent commercial license cost is files is equally impressive with the enables a user to program specific US$1299; an academic/educational capability of exporting results directly actions on data files, and augment single-user license is US$499. Bulk to HTML and RTF formats, ready for analysis results with custom discounts apply for commercial as web and word-processor document calculations and graphics. It is similar well as academic users. The minimum construction. to the old MS BASIC/GWBASIC recommended machine specification language, highly serviceable if a bit is a Pentium/equivalent processor, Not only does SYSTAT provide accurate limited in these days of object-oriented with Microsoft Windows 95/98/NT and nicely structured quantitative programming. 4/2000/ME/XP operating system, output, it also provides display 32Mb RAM (minimum), 30Mb hard graphics of an extremely high quality Overall, SYSTAT 10 can be disk space and an SVGA monitor. and diversity. In fact, there is a complete recommended as a robust general- Acknowledgement manual devoted solely to the Graphics purpose statistical analysis and available for displaying data. These graphical display system that is at least My thanks are extended to Systat graphics exceed those of BMDP, SAS, half the price of its nearest competitors. Software Inc. for providing the review and SPSS in terms of quality and all- It has also been around for over 14 copy of SYSTAT 10.2 . round utility. Virtually every aspect of a years now, which has invariably Paul Barrett

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 7 You are invited to the next Australian Statistical Conference …

CAIRNS ASC 2004 11-16 July, 2004

A tropical paradise …  July temperature range 17°C - 26°C  Excellent beaches  Two world heritage treasures: • the Great Barrier Reef • the tropical rainforest at Daintree

World class venue …  Cairns Convention Centre, rated one of the top ten convention facilities in the world

Two conferences for the price of one …  The International Biometrics Conference, IBC 2004, will be held in parallel, at the same venue

Rich and diverse program …  Up to 8 parallel sessions of IBC and ASC

Start planning now to be a part of it! www.statsoc.org.au/asc2004

8 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 9 Statistical Society of Australia Inc.

Operational Plan 2003

Version 1.0. Released April 2003 Review date: February 2004

Strategy Specific aspects Milestones, needs and actiions

1. Provide high-quality (a) Pursue whether to make ANZJS fully • Electronic journal decision to be taken at July and relevant journal electronic 2003 CC meeting. (ANZJS) and Newsletter • Suggest that the current Editors of the Newsletter (b) Include sections in relevant to Newsletter (Alice Richardson and Michael key groups Adena) (c) Expand Newsletter to complement Journal if − ask Joe Gani to arrange submissions from, it goes electronic and interviews with, retired members and overseas members − request a regular column from the Young Statisticians − request regular input from Sections, possibly through the Section representative on Central Council (Kerrie Mengersen) • put electronic versions of the Newsletter on the Web site by end 2003.

2. Run high-quality • ASC 2004: Director is Neville Bartlett. conference program, • ASC 2006: Director for SSAI aspects to be with a biennial appointed by SSAI Exec. Australian Statistical • ASC involvement in ISI. Nick Fisher currently Conference alternating has responsibility. with a biennial Special Topics conference

8 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 9 Strategy Specific aspects Milestones, needs and actiions

3. Maintain a website that (d) Provide Branch and Section access to • Bruce Fraser to convene a working group supports the diverse membership lists and submit a plan to the June 2003 Executive requirements of the meeting, ahead of the July CC meeting. SSAI membership, its Branches and Sections and Executive, and the wider community

4. Conduct an ongoing (e) Include annual plan for attracting and • Nick Fisher to document the Public Awareness Public Awareness retaining people in the profession Plan and submit it to the June 2003 Executive Campaign meeting. • Alan Branford to hold a teleconference with Branch Presidents to look for new Champion(s) by mid-April.

5. Conduct ongoing (f) Run Continuing Professional Development • CPD: see under Strategy 7 (Accreditation) professional (CPD) programs • Executive to identify a leader for each of development and 4 subgroups of this strategy, with Neville scientific interaction (g) Institute National Visitor program Bartlett having overall responsibility. program (h) Institute Travelling Road Show • Business manager’s role to be clarified by the Hon Secretary. (i) Support networking & other • Approach Peter Hall about establishing the communication, especially facilitating two- National Visitor program. way consultative advice with academic • Ask Kerrie Mengersen about the travelling statisticians road show. • Networking and other communication should be Branch activity, so Alan Branford will have responsibility for this aspect. • Nick Fisher to open discussions with Jim Ramsey (President, Statistical Society of Canada) about the AusCan scholar proposal. • Alan Branford to produce a report on progress by Branches with Networking and related communication activities for the December 2003 Executive meeting.

6. Ensure representation (j) YS membership on Branch Councils • Complete (j) and (k) by end 2003. and involvement of key groups on key (k) Branch and Section and YS membership on • Alan Branford to report to April 2003 committees. SSAI Executive Executive Meeting about progress with this strategy. (l) Sections and Branches to produce annual Plans • Hon Secretary to report Branch Plans to Exec by Dec 2003.

7. Conduct a Professional (m) Run professional accreditation process • Re-accreditation to start in May 2003. Accreditation program • Guidelines for accreditation of University (n) Institute a re-accreditation process undergraduates programs to be submitted to (o) Institute a program for accrediting April 2003 Executive meeting. Statistics programs at universities • Nick Fisher to document CPD process for July 2003 CC meeting.

8. Develop and implement (p) Preliminary meeting of representatives • Nick Fisher to participate in 31 March 2003 a plan for Statistics to from all States, and SSAI and school meeting and develop a proposal for SSAI be taught in schools backgrounds, to discuss, secure agreement depending on the outcomes of the meeting. nationwide and develop plan

9. Run an efficient and (q) Hon Secretary to review Regulations about • Honorary Secretary to review Regulations effective Business description of the current position concerning duties of the Executive Officer and Office to report to the March 2003 Executive meeting.

10. Recruit new members (r) Strategy for undergraduates • AB to report to July 2003 CC meeting on steps taken by Branches. 11. [Strategy relating to Establishing and maintaining the Society as a trusted public commentator and advisor on statistical issues.]

10 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 Statistical Society of Australia Inc.

Strategic Plan 2003 – 2007

The latest versions of the strategic and operational plans can be found at:

www.statsoc.org.au

Version 1.0. Released April 2003 Next review date: February 2004

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 11 1. Introduction So, this is a critical time for the Society. Our two choices are to continue SSAI’s current modus operandi, or to endeavour to do something different. The likely outcome of each of these approaches is shown in Tables 1 and 2. This Strategic Plan has been developed in a somewhat paradoxical context. On the one hand, Statistics as a profession appears to be under threat, as Option 1: Continue as we have been witnessed by Area Likely outcome • disappearance of separate Statistics departments at Universities • falling numbers of undergraduate and graduate students in Statistics Membership Continual decline • shortage of research-minded applicants for University positions • shortage of suitable young recruits for ABS, pharmaceutical companies, … Collect subscriptions, run part-time SSAI office, • the apparent decline of Statistics in CSIRO publish journal and newsletter, run biennial Activities • articles that warn of the threats to the discipline etc. conference, support Professional Accreditation? Membership of the SSAI has been in steady decline for the last few years, as (may have died out under this option) shown in Figure 1. However, this is not a uniquely Australian phenomenon, as can be seen from corresponding graphs for the Royal Statistical Society and the Financial state Struggling; enough to carry out basic activities listed above American Statistical Association (Figure 2). Relevance to anyone Run biennial ASC for benefit of some SSAI members Indeed, it may be somewhat symptomatic of professional societies in general. People seem to have less and less disposable time, and are asking more critical Table 1: Likely outcomes if SSAI continues its current way of operating, without questions not only about how they use this time but about how they spend significant change. their money. That is, they are asking: Am I getting value for money from my professional society? Option 2: Endeavour to change The paradox is that there is an ever greater requirement for Statistics and statistical thinking, because of Area Likely outcome • increased use of data in government, business and industry to inform and justify their activities Membership Growing continuously • increasing numbers of major studies (EPA, clinical trials, …) • increasing competition  increased pressure to remain competitive and to Provision of relevant services to members, ongoing promotion of Statistics (Public Awareness demonstrate this Activities programs), provision of advice as a peak body, increasing numbers of jobs and opportunities for which (in our view as vigorous Professional Accreditation program, … statisticians!) good statistical skills, knowledge and ability are prerequisites Robust; able to support all current programs plus Financial state new initiatives Statistical Society of Australia Inc. Figure 1: SSAI Relevance to anyone Perceived as vital to many key groups membership since 1994. Increases Table 2: Possible outcomes if SSAI endeavours to make significant improvements in 1996 and 1998 to all aspects of its activities. correspond to Total This, then, is the most compelling reason for the Strategic Plan. It seeks to

ship recruitments at the identify the most important requirements of its various stakeholders over the Australian Statistical Conferences coming years, and to pursue Objectives that will meet these requirements. in Sydney and The Objectives listed in the next section are designed to be SMART (Specific, Full Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Time-bounded). Following the Member Brisbane in those years. (MAL = Objectives are a number of strategies intended to help the Society meet its Members At Large.) Objectives. The Objectives will be re-visited each year to check on progress and for modification in the light of recent developments. An Operational Plan Students for the coming year would then provide implementation of relevant aspects of 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 the strategies. MAL This plan has been formulated after considerable development by an 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 SSAI planning committee whose members represented all key SSAI Year stakeholders. Input on a range of proposals was sought from attendees at the 2002 Australian Statistical Conference. At a meeting held in October 2002, the SSAI Executive produced a draft list of Strategic Objectives, and some possible strategies. A draft document containing this material was circulated to both the Planning Committee1 and to the Standing Committee Total on Corporate Memory2, and their feedback incorporated into a draft Plan. Finally, the Plan was discussed and adopted at the Central Council meeting held on February 14, 2003. ship Merger An Operational Plan for 2003-2004 was developed at the same meeting. with I0S Royal Satistical We urge anyone interested to participate in making this work. It’s your Society, Society and this Plan has the membership as its primary beneficiaries. Please join in. Member Approved by the SSAI Executive:

N.I. Fisher President Figure 2: Similar 0 2000 4000 6000 membership N. Bartlett Vice-President figures for the 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 R. Robertson Honorary Secretary Year Royal Statistical Society and the S. Horn Honorary Treasurer Total American Statistical Association. C. Lloyd Editor, ANZJS

Full A. Branford Branch President representative members

ship K. Mengerson Section Chair representative

S. McGregor-Macdonald Young Statisticians’ representative

Jane Waslin SSAI Executive Officer

Member American Satistical Association (Footnotes) 1 John Carlin, Brenton Dansie, Teresa Dickinson, Steve Duvall, Nick Fisher, Joe Gani, Rodger Robertson, Eden Brinkley, Des Nicholls, Peter Hall, Philip McCloud, David Scott, Eric Sowey,

0 2000 4000 6000 Students Jodie Thompson 1998 1999 2000 2001 2 Eden Brinkley, Tim Brown, Daryl Daley, Nick Fisher, Chris Heyde, Ian James, Helen Year MacGillivray, Des Nicholls, Ron Sandland, Dennis Trewin, Neville Weber, Evan Williams

12 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 2. Strategic Objectives 3. Strategies to achieve Objectives

Objective 1. Provide products and services that are vital to the academic Strategy 1. Provide high-quality and relevant journal (ANZJS) and statistical community. Newsletter. [Objectives 1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Strategies Specific aspects • Appropriate publications (a) Pursue whether to make ANZJS fully electronic • Continuing Professional Development program (b) Include sections in Newsletter relevant to key groups • Institute a Visitors’ Program (c) Expand Newsletter to complement Journal if it goes electronic • Appropriate web site • Accredit tertiary courses Milestones, Needs and Actions • Conferences a: Pursue whether to make ANZJS fully electronic • Develop constructive relationships with funding providers b: Include sections in Newsletter relevant to key groups Measures of Success Value survey (see Appendix) c: Expand Newsletter to complement Journal if it goes electronic

Objective 2. Provide products and services that are vital to statisticians Strategy 2. Run high-quality conference program, with a biennial working in Government, business and industry. Australian Statistical Conference alternating with a biennial Special Strategies Topics conference. [Objectives 1, 2, 4, 5] Milestones, Needs and Actions • Maintain a strong Professional Accreditation program • Continuing Professional Development program Establish a good planning process for this, so that requirements • Appropriate publications are established in a timely fashion, and ensure it is linked to CPD • Travelling road show requirements • Support networking and other communication • Appropriate web site Strategy 3. Maintain a web site that supports the diverse • Conferences requirements of the SSAI membership, its Branches and Sections • Public Awareness program and Executive, and the wider community. [Objectives 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] Measures of Success Value survey (see Appendix) Specific aspects (d) Provide Branch and Section access to membership lists Objective 3. Ensure strong and active Branches. Milestones, Needs and Actions Strategies d: Bruce Fraser to head working group • Appropriate publications • Appropriate web site Strategy 4. Conduct an ongoing Public Awareness Campaign. • Public Awareness program [Objectives 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] • Provide appropriate central support and advice for Branch initiatives Specific aspects Measures of Success Value survey (see Appendix) (e) Include annual plan for attracting and retaining people in the profession Objective 4. Ensure strong and active Sections. Milestones, Needs and Actions Strategies e: Launch early 2003. Alan Branford to consult Branches to produce • Appropriate publications suggestions for a suitable owner • Appropriate web site • Public Awareness program Strategy 5. Conduct ongoing professional development and • Provide appropriate central support and advice for Section initiatives scientific interaction program. [Objectives 1, 2, 5] Measures of Success Value survey (see Appendix) Specific aspects (f) Run Continuing Professional Development (CPD) programs Objective 5. Maintain a vigorous Young Statisticians’ program. (g) Institute National Visitor Program Strategies (h) Institute Travelling Road Show • Conferences (i) Support networking & other communication, especially facilitating two- • Appropriate web site way consultative advice with academic statisticians • Appropriate publications Milestones, Needs and Actions • Public Awareness program • Continuing Professional Development program Perhaps one individual for each of 4 subgroups of this strategy • Maintain a strong Professional Accreditation program Neville Bartlett to have overall responsibility • Maintain job vacancies clearing house Business manager’s role needs clarification Measures of Success Value survey (see Appendix) f: CPD to be part of Accreditation Committee’s activities g: University statistical departments need to be involved. Approach a Objective 6. Develop and promote Statistics Curriculum in schools. leading academic about establishing the National visitor program Strategies h: Ask senior academic to explore concept of a travelling road show • Promote the development and adoption of national statistics framework i: Networking and other communication should be Branch activity, so for Years 11 and 12 at school, based on the best teaching practices Alan Branford (representative of Branch Presidents on SSAI Exec.) that can be utilised, together with appropriate training programs for will have responsibility for this aspect Establish a good planning process for this, so that requirements are established in at timely teachers. fashion In place by December 2003 Link to (f) and (g) Measures of Success Framework adopted by all States and Territories by 2007 Strategy 6. Ensure representation and involvement of key groups on [To be adopted if we can find a champion for it: key committees. [Objectives 3, 4, 5] Specific aspects Objective 7. Establish and maintain the Society as a trusted public (a) YS (Young Statistician) membership on Branch Councils commentator and advisor on statistical issues. (b) Branch and Section and YS membership on SSAI Executive Strategies (c) Sections and Branches to produce annual Plans • Public Awareness program Milestones, Needs and Actions • Channelled opportunities for genuine expert participation in public debate on matters of social/political controversy with statistical j: By end 2003 dimensions k: Done Measures of Success Value survey (see Appendix) ] l: By end 2003

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 13 Strategy 7. Conduct a Professional Accreditation program. APPENDIX. Measures based on Value Surveys [Objectives 1, 2, 5] Specific aspects A Value Survey3 is based on the concept of a Value Tree. The basic idea is (a) Run professional accreditation process that organisations seek to provide products and services to their markets (b) Institute a re-accreditation process (comprising customers and potential customers) with superior Value, where Value is to be measured in terms of (c) Institute a program for accrediting Statistics programs at universities • Satisfaction with the Quality of the Product or Service received; and Milestones, Needs and Actions • Satisfaction with the Price Paid m: Overall responsibility devolves to the incumbent Chair of the Accreditation Committee Responsibility includes running the CPD program (with Quality and Price can each be broken down further, leading to a so-called administrative work handled by the SSAI Business Office) “Value Tree”. For an SSAI member, this may look something like that shown in the Figure. n: July 2003 o: July 2003 The Value tree is turned into a survey by asking questions of the form On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent, please rate SSAI on Strategy 8. Develop and implement a plan for Statistics to be taught in the following: schools nationwide. [Objective 6] Relevance of its range of products and services? Specific aspects The extent to which these products and services support (d) Preliminary meeting of representatives from all States, and SSAI and your work? school backgrounds, to discuss, secure agreement and develop plan etc. Milestones, Needs and Actions followed by a summary question asking for an overall rating of SSAI’s Products p: Nick Fisher to coordinate. Meeting being arranged by Dennis Trewin and and Services, and so on through the whole Value Tree. Nick Fisher for end March 2003 The result is a tree-structured data set of ratings that can then be analysed to identify Strategy 9. Develop a constructive relationship with funding providers. (a) which attributes (far right column of table) carry the most weight in driving [Objective 1] overall satisfaction (far left column of table); and Milestones, Needs and Actions (b) where does SSAI rate lowest. Incumbent President responsible for this and so to select improvement priorities.

Strategy 10. Run an efficient and effective Business Office. [Objectives 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] (Footnotes) Specific aspects 3 The best account of this is in the book Mastering Customer Value Management by Ray (e) Hon Secretary to review Regulations about description of the current Kordupleski and Janice Simpson, published by Pinnaflex Educational Resources in April position 2003. See www.pinnaflex.com/cvmbooks/. Milestones, Needs and Actions q: Incumbent Business Manager responsible for this strategy Formal performance reviews at least twice annually

Strategy 11. Recruit new members. [Objectives 3, 4, 5,] Specific aspects (f) Strategy for undergraduates Milestones, Needs and Actions r: Alan Branford to coordinate with Branches

[If Strategic Objective 7 is adopted: need a strategy relating to Establishing Relevant? and maintaining the Society as a trusted public commentator and adviser on statistical issues] Products & Supports my work? Services ? ? Quality

Easy to get information? Delivery Informative Web site Process Helpful Office ? Worth being a member Fees? Direct Payment options? costs ? Price Time for phone enquiries Indirect ? costs ?

Prototype Value Tree to ascertain SSAI Members’ views of the value that SSAI creates for them. The overall concept of Value is described as “Worth being a member”. The attributes in the far right column need to be established from Focus Groups.

14 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 NOTICE

The Annual General Meetings of The Statistical Society Of Australia Inc and The Australian Statistical Publishing Association Inc. will be held on Tuesday 8 July 2003 at 5.30pm in Seminar Room G35, Ground Floor, John Dedman Building, Australian National University, Canberra

SSAI Annual General ASPAI Annual General Meeting - Agenda Meeting - Agenda

1. Apologies and Proxies 1. Apologies and Proxies Proxies must be given in writing as per form Proxies must be given in writing as per form inserted in the May 2003 issue of SSAI Newsletter. inserted with May issue of SSAI Newsletter. Proxy Proxy forms must be received at the SSAI office forms must be received at the SSAI office for for passing to the Secretary no later than 24 hours passing to the Secretary no later than 24 hours before the time of the meeting. before the time of the meeting.

2. Confirmation of the Minutes - Minutes of the 2. Confirmation of the minutes - Minutes of the meetings as circulated meetings as circulated

3. Matters arising 3. Matters arising

4. Accreditation 4. Presentation of the 2002 Annual Report by the 4.1 Report from Accreditation Committee Editor of the Australian and New Zealand Journal 4.2 Report on Public Awareness Campaign of Statistics

5. Reports 5. Presentation of the 2002 Annual Report by the 5.1 President Newsletter Editors 5.2 Treasurer 5.3 Branches 6. Treasurer’s Report 5.4 Sections 7. Other business 6 Conferences 6.1 ASC 2004 / IBC 2004 6.2 ASC 2006 (joint with NZSA, in Auckland) 6.3 SSAI involvement in ISI 2005 (Sydney)

7. Election of Section Chairs Nominations for Section Chairs should be received at the SSAI office no later than 27 June 2003. Nomination Forms have been inserted in each copy of the May issue of SSAI Newsletter. All nominations require a seconder and a statement from the nominee that she or he is prepared to stand.

8. Other business

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 15 Branch Reports Continued

NEW SOUTH WALES building statistical models, and would therefore not be included! solving various business problems. Information from the exit interviews The President of the NSW Branch, can then be matched with that of the The meeting started with a comment Associate Professor John Rayner basket data. from myself that I was the only female of the University of Wollongong, in the audience – interesting given that The third part of the package is delivered his Presidential Address the title of the talk was ‘The ins and store observation. This includes at the AGM in March. He spoke on outs of supermarket baskets’. As luck Academia: Anticipation and Actuality, information on where a product would have it Simon’s first slide of a a topic he chose because almost all is located in the store and how the ‘typical’ shopper was, you guessed it, of the members of the Society are products are laid out. MARKET21 a male! As you can imagine this led to graduates. In a reflective mood, he have a couple of staff working full some gentle ribbing and set the scene asked several questions, of which an time designing and developing floor for a very interactive discussion of intriguing one was whether he would plans using MAPINFO. These floor supermarket shopping habits. advise someone contemplating an plans were very interesting as they academic career to persevere or to Simon started his talk by discussing very quickly highlighted hot spots do something else instead. In the the BehaviourScan service that in a store by the use of colour. The course of answering this question – MARKET21 offers. This is a amount of traffic in a shopping at least for ordinary individuals, his comprehensive study of shopping aisle is estimated from the items answer seemed to be in the negative behaviour embracing every product purchased in that aisle as reflected – he touched on some of the changes sold through the supermarket. It in the basket data. These floor plans he had seen in his nearly thirty-year combines data from a variety of are also interactive for the clients and career. On balance he felt much had sources, including basket data and distributors can pay a premium to improved, but much had been lost store exit interviews, to address the ensure their product is displayed in too, especially in the encroachment question of who is buying what, what they see as the best spot. of “managerialism” into what was where and when. He broke the talk On a final note, during question once a collegial profession. He down into a number of parts. time we came to appreciate what enlivened his talk with examples MARKET21 has done for the large of bad teaching derived from his Firstly Simon discussed the shopping basket data. This is obtained supermarkets and their suppliers personal observation. Sometimes in that they have developed all (although he mentioned no names electronically from the checkout records. This data comes to the the reports, floor plans etc and are unfavourably) the culprits were continually working with their clients recognised by the audience: office in tape format and is loaded into MARKET21’s systems. Lo and to improve the information they unfortunately (or perhaps receive. fortunately) they, and their sins, behold, even in this electronic age, cannot be identified here. missing data are still a problem (in Caro Badcock the past up to around 14% from He concluded (in part) that: it is some supermarkets but now reduced Training courses run by SAS sometimes too easy to do less than to about 1%). A selection of reports justice to the job and survive; and it is was presented and a lively discussion The NSW Branch announced in May also too easy to do a double workload ensued around when people shopped an arrangement with SAS under and still not be valued by either your for certain items and why they shopped which Branch members will be able employer or your students for that at these times. Simon then went on to to take part in certain SAS training effort. After these sobering reflections highlight issues with discounts and courses, beginning in July, at a special, and some discussion, the meeting promotional activities such as how to substantially discounted price. The departed to a nearby hostelry. differentiate what is a discount and details have been circulated to members and are available on the Alun Pope what is promotional and the resulting impact on customer behaviour. Branch web-site. April Meeting In addition to the basket data, At the April meeting we were shopper interviews are undertaken. VICTORIA honoured to have one of our Young These interviews are performed Statisticians, Simon McGregor- after a shopping trip has been At the March Annual General MacDonald, speak to us on the completed. MARKET21 aims to have Meeting, Kay Lipson took over from analysis of supermarket shopping. questionnaires that can be completed Neil Diamond as Victorian Branch Simon is the lead contact for Young in 2 to 3 minutes for obvious reasons President. Kay lectures at the Lilydale Statisticians across the country and including that of ensuring people campus of Swinburne University, has worked with MARKET21 as a with small baskets participate. where she is ‘Discipline Leader’ in Data Modeller for over two years Apparently traditional questionnaires Statistics. She is actively involved in now, developing database systems, have taken 8 to 12 minutes and the the theory and practice of Statistics creating demographic reports, 30% of shoppers with small baskets Education.

16 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 Branch Reports Continued

Category one statisticians Alan Agresti (left) and Chris Lloyd prepared for any Kay Lipson at the International contingency, provided it comes in tabular form. Conference on Teaching Statistics in Cape Town, July 2002. A President the Department of Econometrics confidence intervals for proportions, who can ride an ostrich should have and Business Statistics at Monash and in the second hour he surveyed no trouble keeping the Branch Council University. Don has been ranked models for ordered categorical data. under control amongst the top econometricians Alan’s wife has accused him of writing and statisticians world wide and three books with essentially the same In addition to the four new Chairs was a recipient of the 2002 American title (Analysis of Ordinal Categorical (or equivalent) mentioned in the last Statistical Society award for Data, Wiley, 1984; An Introduction to newsletter, Melbourne has acquired Outstanding Statistical Application. Categorical Data Analysis, Wiley, 1996; one more statistician of professorial Although Don is perhaps best known Categorical Data Analysis, Wiley, 1st rank. Personally, though, I always for his work in time series analysis, he edition 1990, 2nd edition 2002). But it’s say that you can never have too many has an eclectic range of interests and a good thing he did: his lectures were professors of statistics. You need is looking forward to some interesting masterly and accessible, reflecting his enough to be able to compile adequate interactions with the Melbourne well-honed communication skills. econometrics and statistics fraternity. summary statistics on them. The Victorian Microarray Technology Following a period of nearly fifteen It is easy to say something categorical Consortium organised a week-long years at The Australian National about Alan Agresti: he’s an expert on workshop on Microarrays: Applications University in Canberra, first as the subject. Alan, on sabbatical from and Data Analysis, hosted by La Trobe Research Fellow and eventually the University of Florida, visited the University from 7-11 April. Two of Reader in Econometrics and Statistics, University of Melbourne for the week the invited speakers were prominent Don Poskitt has recently moved of April 8-12, and presented a double overseas statisticians. David M. Rocke to Melbourne to take up a Chair in seminar to a nearly full house on (pronounced ‘rock’) from University the Thursday afternoon. In the first of California Davis, in a strongly hour he outlined ideas for improving attended plenary lecture, proposed a

A happy and relaxed Don Poskitt. He’s David Rocke (far left) visited the Victorian Bioinformatics Consortium, represented by in Victoria now. (second-from-left to right) Phil Brown, Robert Flegg and Albert Trajstman.

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 17 Branch Reports Continued

currently working at C.S.I.R.O. for one year but is permanently based at the University of Kent at Canterbury in England. Phil, whose photograph appears in the Victorian Branch News in this issue of the Newsletter, has worked in British parliamentary election forecasting in each general election from 1970 to 1997, and it is these experiences he shared with us during his talk. Phil became involved in his first election forecast as a Ph.D. student in 1970, as part of the team that the BBC had assembled for its election coverage. The British election coverage works quite differently from its Australian equivalent, due mainly to the differences in the election systems that each country uses. A key difference for the media coverage, and indeed for the setting of the forecasting problem, is that there are no partial counts of votes available in any seat. No information is available for an electorate until a winner is declared. At that time, and only at that time, do the electoral authorities reveal how many votes Dynamic Di Cook (centre) flanked by Kathy Ruggiero, a former Victorian Branch each candidate attracted. Councillor now lecturing in Auckland, and Kym Butler, the Victorian Branch This disadvantage is partially offset Treasurer. by the larger number of electorates in Britain. In 1970 there were 635 seats new statistical model for microarray name is intriguing – perhaps using it in the British parliament, and by 1997 data. David’s list of professional is like exploring a desert. Her plenary this had grown to 659. The results for interests makes for worthwhile lecture illustrated the use of modern each seat are made available as the reading: statistical analysis of gene multivariate graphical methods to counting for the seat is completed. expression data; statistical analysis of visualise structure in microarray data. There is a bit of a race on among high-throughput biological assay data; The workshop attracted about 100 counters to see which can be the analysis of massive data sets; robust delegates. In contrast to statistics first seat declared. This will always statistical methods; chemometrics; be an urban seat, where there are no conferences I have been to recently, formal models in international relations; substantial delays in getting the votes most of the audience was young applications of statistics in medicine and to a central counting place. Urban (under 35) and there was no epidemiology, biology, environmental seats tend to be Labour seats, so there obvious male bias or, for that matter, science and earth sciences; quality and is a bias towards Labour in the early female bias – but this is genetics. productivity improvement. That’s a results. The key to the forecasting, of Unlike physics and mathematics, massive data set in itself. No wonder course, is to look at how the votes he finds bioinformatics a piece of cake bioinformatics appears to have a have changed since the last election, (see photo). bright future. and to try to predict what other seats Di Cook completed her undergraduate Geoff Laslett will change hands. On election night, degree at the University of New about 10 seats will come in between England in New South Wales in 1982, British Election Night 10 and 11 p.m., and about 200 results Forecasting for the BBC, will have come in by 2 a.m.. but she has been on the statistics 1970-1997 faculty at Iowa State University for Phil explained some of the forecasting many years. She is a member of the The March Annual General Meeting models that he has used, but also gave team that developed the popular of the Victorian Branch was us a feel for the environment that an dynamic graphics tool ggobi. The addressed by Phil Brown, who is election night forecaster is working

18 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 Branch Reports Continued

in. Phil’s work was with the BBC, the might provide a fitting example for to publish Altman and Bland’s “voice of the nation”, who are very the discipline of statistics would have criticisms. keen to be seen as an authoritative been sorely disappointed. Martin, By good fortune Martin stumbled and reliable source. Unfortunately, Professor of Medical Statistics at St across some psychologists from the in 1970 they were not performing George’s Hospital Medical School in University of Durham who were particularly well, and were being London, proved to be an entertaining, interested in repeating the baseball beaten by commercial broadcaster ITV provocative and energetic speaker. study using archival data on first- who based their forecasting on exit Martin is famous partly for being class cricketers. Martin saw this as polls in key marginal seats. The BBC’s one half of the Altman and Bland an opportunity to analyse such data performance has since improved, no duo. Douglas Altman is Professor properly and convinced them of his doubt in part due to Phil’s efforts. of Statistics in Medicine at the ICRF objections to the Halpern and Coren There is also always a lot of media Medical Statistics Group in Oxford. approach. He was invited to join the interest in the “Gravesend test”. The Altman and Bland have jointly written research team. They discovered that seat of Gravesend had a long history numerous articles illustrating, using the proportion of left-handed players of always electing a member of the real case studies, statistical pitfalls had increased from about 14 percent winning party (until recently). in medical research and contrasting in 1840 to 19 percent in 1900, and misuses with correct analyses. In closing, Phil also noted that then had decreased. This is the sort of presentation is very important when Martin’s Branch presentation, trend that could sabotage the Halpern your client is a media broadcaster. entitled ‘Do left-handed people die and Coren style of analysis. The Dynamic graphics are very important young?’, was similarly didactic. In data source included dates of birth, for the election night coverage. They the late 1980s several psychologists so Martin and his colleagues were love phrases like “landslide” and independently published ‘evidence’ able to carry out a survival analysis “likely majority” but don’t like to hear that left-handers die young. Halpern (Cox regression) that included both about the problems or the uncertainty. and Coren, for example, extracted survivors and deceased cricketers There is also a lot of focus on the data from The Baseball Encyclopaedia and took into account the changing ‘swing’ in the presentation, although and reported, in a Letter to Nature in proportion of left-handers. They it is not used to a great extent in the 1988, that the mean age at death of found no difference in death rates forecasting. right-handers was 64.64 years, while from natural causes, but left-handers that of left-handers was 63.97 years. did have a higher death rate from Bruce Fraser They followed this in 1991 with a accidents and active war service. Letter to the Editor of the prestigious Martin speculated that this might Do left-handed people die young? New England Journal of Medicine, in be caused by left-handers living in There is a dinner party game in which which they announced an astonishing a right-handers’ world. Their article guests cite surnames that reflect, nine year difference in favour of appeared in the British Medical Journal usually in some whimsical sense, their right-handers, based on information in 1994. owners’ professions. The Melbourne collected in a survey of relatives of It was observed that those wishing Yellow Pages includes Dr Paino the deceased southern Californians. to ask questions all raised their dentist and several Sharp accountants, Martin (with and without Douglas right hands. Fast learners, these for example. Anyone who attended Altman) wrote letters of protest to statisticians. the April meeting of the Victorian the editors of both journals. The Branch wondering if Martin Bland study design implicitly assumes that Geoff Laslett the population structure is stable over many decades. Using such a design we would undoubtedly QUEENSLAND discover that those who buy Britney The Annual General Meeting (AGM) Spears’ CDs die, on average, much of the Qld Branch of the SSAI was younger than those who do not. Of held on Tuesday March 4th at more direct relevance, increasing QUT. Minutes of the AGM, and the acceptance of left-handedness in the President’s and Treasurer’s Reports population under study may mean for 2002 are available at http:// that the proportion of left-handers www.maths.qut.edu.au/ssaqld/ is increasing. A rigorous analysis would compare the data for left- and The following people were elected to right-handers cohort by cohort, so Council at the AGM of the Branch: that changing population and social PRESIDENT: Dr Bronwyn Harch factors are allowed for. The editors SECRETARY: Dr Petra Kuhnert apparently failed to understand these Martin Bland TREASURER: Dr Charis Burridge methodological flaws, and refused Photo: Brian Phillips COUNCILLORS: Dr Peter Baker,

SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 19 Branch Reports Continued

Dr Ross Darnell, Dr Melissa Dobbie, Dr Tony Sahama, Dr Nancy Spencer, Dr Tony Swain, Ms Joanne Walker, Dr Rodney Wolff. Coherent building of statistical awareness and thinking across educational levels After the AGM, Associate Prof. Helen MacGillivray, School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, addressed the Branch on her perspectives in relation to the coherent building of Tony Swain (outgoing President, QDPI), Helen MacGillivray (March Speaker - statistical awareness and thinking QUT) and Peter Baker (outgoing Secretary). across educational levels. has received support through that ecologists are often faced with. Helen outlined both the positives seven national or university grants. More specifically, he presented some and negatives in the increasing She is increasingly involved in interesting examples where ecologists drive to include chance, data and mathematics and statistics education in general, focus on collecting data statistics strands throughout all with the Queensland Board of school educational levels. Positives suitable for analysis using an analysis Senior Secondary School Studies, include increasing awareness of the of variance, without any appriori importance of statistical numeracy the Queensland Schools Curriculum notions and testing null hypotheses and of the statistics profession Council, and now with the that are either inappropriate for the for many aspects of national and Queensland Studies Authority, and data at hand or alternatively do not international economic and social other areas of Education Queensland. add any value to the analysis. She is currently director of QUT’s health and development. However, Hugh presented work from one of Maths Access Centre. many statisticians are skeptical his PhD students who is interested about the value of this drive, as in how abundance of woodland birds their impression is that the increase Conservation Decision Making: Is Statistics any Use? is affected by low, moderate and high in statistics in school curricula has grazing areas. He highlighted how turned more students “off” statistics. The April meeting of the Queensland motivation for this work stemmed Negatives of the drive tend to have branch was addressed by Professor from a series of apriori models, one of their origin in lack of understanding Hugh Possingham, Director of The which involved developing a foraging of the statistical discipline and Ecology Centre, The University of substrate model that produced a its thinking and practices, and in Queensland. forage rank for each species of bird insufficient indepth thought and Hugh gave an exposé of work that could easily be interpreted. An research from a statistical perspective currently being undertaken in the alternative model under investigation into the what and the how of building Ecology Centre and focused on is an expert opinion model. This an educationally graduated and some of the common misconceptions involves eliciting information from coherent development of statistics concerned with hypothesis testing, experts about how grazing levels throughout schooling and into post- analysis of variance and principal might increase or decrease bird school situations. Helen discussed component analysis techniques numbers for specific species and what can and should be done, traps to avoid, what is needed from the statistical profession, and what is needed for supporting, developing and resourcing teachers, schools and students. BIOGRAPHY: Helen MacGillivray’s teaching and curriculum design experience of 25 years extends across all areas of statistical sciences and their applications, across all levels of subjects, all class sizes and most disciplines. During the last decade A diverse audience of Ecologists and Statisticians listen intently to Professor her work in teaching and learning Hugh Possingham speak on Ecology and statistics.

20 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 21 Branch Reports Continued

more about the system. Hugh flagged roles including Chair of the Federal this as an important area of research Government Biological Diversity for the group. Advisory Committee, member of the NHT Advisory Committee, Finally, the question of “why do member of the state Ministerial we monitor?” was raised. Hugh Advisory Committee on Vegetation discussed how monitoring is often Management, member of the Research performed for auditing purposes, and Conservation Committee of Birds to raise awareness about a potential Australia and member of the Board of problem, triggering action from Greening Australia, Queensland. stakeholders or simply to learn a system and act accordingly. Hugh has recently been awarded: the POL Eureka Prize for Environmental BIOGRAPHY: Research (for collaborative work with Hugh completed Applied Dr David Lindenmayer) - 1999, the Mathematics Honours at The inaugural Fenner Medal for plant and Hugh Possingham showing how the University of Adelaide in 1984. After animal biology from the Australian foraging model was developed for attaining a Rhodes Scholarship in 1984 Academy of Sciences - 2000, and woodland birds. Hugh completed his D.Phil at Oxford the Australian Mathematical Society University in 1987. Postdoctoral Medal - 2001. determining if expert opinion matches research periods followed at Stanford information recorded from surveys. University and at the Australian He suffers from obsessive bird National University (as a QEII watching. The novel idea of using a “virtual Fellow). In 1991 he took a Lectureship, ecologist” to determine if process Petra Kuhnert later Senior Lectureship, in Applied can be obtained from pattern was Mathematics at The University of Data Mining in Practice: Banking, also presented. The idea behind this Adelaide. In 1995 he was appointed Insurance, Bioinformatics approach was to simulate a process Foundation Chair and Professor of the and use a “virtual ecologist to test At our February meeting Dr Dan Department of Environmental Science the ability of habitat models to find Steinberg, CEO, Salford Systems, at the Roseworthy campus of The good habitat. The example that Hugh introduced data mining as the University of Adelaide. In July 2000 gave was simulating the habitat application of modern, highly Hugh took up a joint Professorship of the female greater glider and automated nonparametric analytical between the Departments of Zoology investigating if birth-death rates could methods to recognize enduring & Entomology, and Mathematics at be inferred from the probability of patterns in data. He then overviewed The University of Queensland. In territory occupancy. Once simulated, and discussed several of the major February 2001 The Ecology Centre a “virtual ecologist” would be sent tools of data mining, including was established with Hugh as in to collect data from the simulated decision trees (CART), artificial neural Director. From 2003-2007 Hugh is an region in a manner similar to a real networks, multivariate adaptive ARC Professorial Research Fellow. ecologist. These samples can be regression splines (MARS), rule analysed using standard statistical The Possingham lab includes induction and several others. methods (e.g. logistic regression) four postdoctoral researchers and After illustrating the value of the and then compared with the actual ten PhD students working on classification approach in banking system used to simulate the habitat empirical and theoretical aspects (based on purchasing pattern, is a of the species. of the applied population ecology credit card in the hands of its true of plants and animals. Particular Hugh also spoke about the concept owner?) and in evaluating university areas of recent research include of active adaptive management, admission procedures, he addressed marine reserve design, optimal which is a focus of a number of some of the common questions landscape reconstruction for researchers within the Ecology Centre from statisticians about data mining. birds, metapopulation dynamics for a wide range of problems that What is common to data mining of plants and animals, population include kangaroo management and and statistical analysis, how did data viability analysis, kangaroo weed eradication. He presented a mining come to be and why have and koala management, and simple fishery model to illustrate the computer scientists led so much of optimal weed control (as part of concept and highlighted the problem the data mining development? In the Weeds CRC). The lab has a of managing the system when the answering these he emphasised the unifying interest in environmental chance of the fishery collapsing from very large data sets often involved, the applications of decision theory. a vulnerable state is uncertain. One nonparametric nature of the methods, way to approach the problem in an Hugh has published over 100 with very few statistical tests and a active adaptive environment, is to refereed articles and book chapters. heavy reliance on test data to validate collapse the fishery early and learn Hugh has a variety of broader public results, and differences in jargon.

20 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 21 Branch Reports Continued

Encouragingly, he highlighted the household surveys. The observation requires accurate well-presented very important role a statistician could that responses collected by the same statistical data. play in the analysis and interpretation interviewer tend to be more similar As an example, Joe took an historical of results from data mining. than responses collected by different look at us as a nation by way of interviewers is widely known as the The talk concluded with a detailed publicly available statistics presented “interviewer effect”. Nick related illustration of the use of CART with as tables and graphs. We followed our the story of a 1929 social survey of data collected in 1992 on potential history between 1961 and 1981 from a homeless men, in which one of the purchases of mobile phones - an nation predominantly male (138 males interviewers was a vocal prohibitionist interesting example he was happy to 100 females) to one with slightly and another, an avowed socialist. As to discuss, since the usual need more females than males. An historical it happened, the prohibitionist’s data for confidentiality associated with look at our economy revealed that the indicated that the main reason behind applications seeking commercial percentage of farm products in the homelessness was alcohol abuse. At advantage had rapidly passed! Australian GDP had declined from the same time, the socialist’s data 19% in 1953 to 4% by 1983. In health, Some of the material presented, with indicated that the main reason behind numbers of medical practitioners (per further detail on the methods, is on homelessness was poor economic and 100,000 population) roughly doubled the Salford Systems website. Links social conditions. Modern training between 1960 and 1984. are in the talk summary on the SSAI techniques have helped to reduce, but Queensland site. not eliminate, the interviewer effect. Statistics give us a picture of who we are today. Joe showed a table BIOGRAPHY: A good measure of the interviewer from 1999 of the countries of birth effect leads to a better estimate of Dan Steinberg is a well respected of Australians. Of the 19 million the precision of survey estimates. member of the data mining, Australians, 14.5 million were born When the interviewer effect is statistics and analytical consultation in Australia. Another 2.4 million were ignored, variance is underestimated. communities. His more than 20 years born in Europe, 0.5 million in South However, it’s not always so simple of experience in the field include East Asia, 1.5 million elsewhere. The to isolate the interviewer effect, Member of Technical Staff at AT&T great majority of Australians are in because it is often confounded with Bell Laboratories, and Assistant fact of European descent, despite geographical effects. Survey data Professor of Econometrics at the the occasional assertion that one is are usually spatially clustered due University of California, San Diego, “surrounded by a sea of Asian faces”. as well as numerous consultation to housing type and age of people engagements with Fortune 100 clients. within a household. Nick showed Statistics allow us to peer into the He received his Ph.D. in Economics us how multilevel modelling is used future. Current fertility, mortality and from Harvard University, and has to directly estimate the interviewer migration statistics are used to predict received honours from the SAS User’s effect. He also discussed extensions the size of our population by age Group International. He has published to the multilevel response models, group well into the future. Projections articles in statistics, econometrics, in particular longitudinal multilevel of the Australian Bureau of Statistics computer science, and marketing models. The equations got longer and under three scenarios with different journals, and is the developer of a longer, but then shorter again and we immigration rates indicate that the series of advanced statistical analysis learned happily that with geo-coding, population of Australia is likely to be programs. In addition, he has explicit spatial correlation structures respectively 23.8, 22.9 and 22.4 million been a featured data mining issues can be used which lead to much in 2021, and 31.9, 25.2 and 22.6 million speaker for the American Marketing simpler multilevel models. in 2101. A large proportion of these will be aged 65 and over. Association, American Statistical On that happy note, several of us Association and the Direct Marketing had a lovely dinner at Zeffirelli’s in Using modelling, statistics can play Association. He currently divides his Belconnen. an important role in formulating time between the company offices in ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ hypotheses about historical events San Diego and Sydney. when accurate records are not Tony Swain The eminent statistician, Professor Joe available. Joe related the story of Gani, spoke at the March meeting on a model developed by Richard statistics and history. At first glance, Tweedie to describe the apparently CANBERRA there appears to be little connection random distribution of populated between statistics and history, one and unpopulated Polynesian At our first meeting of the year being concerned with measuring islands. Based upon partial records (February), we were fortunate to have characteristics of populations and the and human skeletons found on Nick von Sanden from the University other with interpretation of events. uninhabited islands, Tweedie’s model of Wollongong present work he has Statistics, in fact, plays an important estimated the probabilities of long done on measuring the interviewer role in historical research, and an term group survival, given the size of component of response error in intelligent historical perspective often the original colony.

22 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 23 Branch Reports Continued

Joe closed his talk with some statistics non-linear random variable with the presentation. The cash prize (kindly comparing the proportion of GDP multivariate delta method” in some donated by Roche Products) was spent on R&D in Australia with that detail – a difficult and stimulating awarded to Pam McCaskie from the spent in other countries. He remarked problem that he had been working on. University of Western Australia for her that it was a sad commentary that In another aspect of his presentation, inspirational talk on her love of both while Australia had the intellectual Philip provided useful and practical statistics and human biology and how training and enterprise to match advice to students about the transition these two disciplines together form the best overseas research, the from studying statistics to working a powerful combination. Pam’s talk support that would make such as a statistician, including a lot of covered the importance of teaching research possible did not seem to be useful reference material for the statistics in other fields to enable forthcoming. statisticians of the future. He also scientists to tackle their research with A lively discussion followed over discussed the importance for all greater confidence. statisticians of keeping up to date dinner and wine in Civic. The continued support of our sponsors, Terri Neeman with new statistical developments at the completion of their studies by the Statistical Society of Australia reading statistical publications and Inc (WA Branch), Data Analysis WESTERN journals and attending conferences Australia, Roche Products, Telethon AUSTRALIA and seminars. Roche Products has Institute for Child Health Research, been an important ongoing supporter CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2003 Western Australian Young of our previous workshops and it was University of Western Australia, Statistician’s Workshop great to see Philip make it to Perth to Curtin University of Technology and Murdoch University, makes events The Young Statisticians of the WA give a presentation this year. such as these possible and I would branch of the Statistical Society recently Each of our invited speakers was given like to take this opportunity to thank held a workshop to promote statistics free rein as to what they talked about, each of them. I would also like to and statistical careers to young although they were asked to focus on thank all of our speakers for inspiring statisticians in Western Australia. The the practical side of statistics and its the next generation of statisticians. workshop was held on Friday 21st of applications to make it more relevant February at the Cottesloe Beach Hotel Special thanks also go to the rest of to young statisticians. Some speakers the organising committee, Andrew where enviable views of the coastline chose to focus on a particular statistical and Rottnest Island were enjoyed. Hiskins and Tarn Duong – without technique that they had used, while their dedication and commitment The 2003 workshop built upon the others gave a broader perspective the workshop would not have been a aims of the 1994, 1999 and 2001 on their career. It was interesting to success. workshops, which were to develop, hear about statistical consulting from maintain and improve contact and two different points of view – one a As a result of arrangements made support amongst young statisticians. consultant from a private consulting at the workshop, the WA Young It was a positive sign for the statistical firm and the other from within a Statisticians group has already had community in Western Australia to see large government department. We one get together over dinner since the a turnout of 41 participants – a blend also heard about data collection and workshop. A great night was had by of undergraduates, postgraduates and analysis for a recreational fishing all who attended and more informal recent graduates in statistics or related survey (“What’s the catch?”) and gatherings are planned throughout disciplines. Participants listened to an explanation of different types of the year. a range of interesting presentations imputation methods used in ABS Marleen Voortman and Anna Munday given by invited speakers and other business surveys. participants. At the end of the day, the On a personal note, I would like to Young statisticians were also take this opportunity to thank the young statisticians walked away with encouraged to present, with a $200 a vast amount of information, made Statistical Society of Australia Inc (WA cash prize available for the best talk. Branch) for their continued support new friends and met a number of The seven Young Statistician speakers key professionals in the WA statistics during my 21⁄2 years as WA State presented a range of interesting profession. Representative. However, it is time talks on topics such as “Statistics as for new blood to take on the young Our keynote speaker, Dr Philip a Second Language”, “Reflections statistician cause and breathe new life McCloud from Roche Products in on Postgraduate Study for Those into the group, and Anna Munday Dee Why, NSW, gave an inspiring talk Tempted or Scared by the Prospect”, “A from Data Analysis Australia has on how statistics has been used in the Statistical Approach for Finding Fish in now taken on the role. I’m sure that development of pharmaceutical drugs an Underwater Video”, and “Analysis Anna will receive the same amount of in a highly regulated environment. of Spatial Clustering”. Our keynote support and encouragement as I have After speaking about the statistician’s speaker, Dr Philip McCloud, together in the past. role in general, Philip discussed with the 2001 winner Helen Teasdale, “the calculation of the variance of a judged the best Young Statistician Marleen Voortman

22 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003 23 Australasian Conferences Society Secretaries

Central Council New Zealand Statistical Australian Statistical Conference President: Dr N.I. Fisher Association Conference 2003 Secretary: Mr R. Robertson 11 – 16 July 2004 Email: 2 – 4 July, 2003 Cairns, Queensland [email protected] Massey University, Palmerston Contact: Neville Bartlett, New South Wales North website will be at http: [email protected] President: A/Prof John Rayner //www. ist.massey.ac.nz/stats/ Secretary: Mr Alun Pope International Biometric Conference nzsa2003/ Email: [email protected] Contact: Duncan Hedderley, D.I.H 11 – 16 July 2004 [email protected] [email protected] Cairns, Queensland Canberra Contact: Kaye Basford, k.e.basford President: Dr Ann Cowling Australian Young Statisticians @mailbox.uq.edu.au Secretary: Ms Anna Poskitt Conference Email: [email protected]

26 – 27 September 2003 Victoria Boulevard on Beaumont Hotel, President: Dr K. Lipson Newcastle, NSW Secretary: Mr B. Fraser Email: [email protected] Contact: Simon McGregor-McDonald, [email protected] South Australia President: Dr Alan Branford Secretary: Mr Patrick Lim Overseas Conferences Email: [email protected] Western Australia President: Dr Martin Hazelton Hawaii International Conference The Thirteenth International Secretary: Ms Jodie Thompson on Statistics and Related Fields Conference on Quantitative Email: [email protected] Methods for the Environmental 5 – 8 June, 2003, Sheraton Waikiki Queensland Hotel, Honolulu Hawaii USA Sciences and The Twelfth General President: Dr Bronwyn Harch Meeting of the International Secretary: Dr Petra Kuhnert Sponsored by: University of Email: [email protected] Hawaii – West Oahu Environmetrics Society (TIES) Web address http:// 21 – 24 August, 2003 www.hicstatistics.org Friendship Hotel, Beijing, China Section Chairs Email address: statistics@hicstatis Major Theme: Quantifying how tics.org our environment affects us. Statistics in the Medical Sciences Professor Terry Mills ISIS 3 and 3rd Annual Meeting of Information: http:// Email: [email protected] ENBIS www.cmis.csiro.au/ties2003/ Statistics in the Biological Sciences 21 – 22 August, 2003 6th International Conference of Dr Simon Barry Email: [email protected] Barcelona, Spain The Mathematics Education into Information about the conference the 21st Century Project Survey and Management Dr Robert Clark can be found at the ENBIS website 19 – 25 September, 2003 Email: [email protected] www.enbis.org and at the SBI Brno, Czech Republic website www.public.iastate.edu/ “The Decidable and the Statistical Education David Griffiths ~sbi Undecidable in Mathematics Email: [email protected] Education!” Contact: Alan Rogerson, email: Statistical Computing Associate Professor Kuldeep Kumar [email protected] Email: [email protected]

Industrial Statistics Web site of the month Dr Aloke Phatak Email: aloke.phatak@cmis.csiro.au

Young Statisticians Don’t forget about your Society’s own website, which is http: Simon McGregor-MacDonald //www.statsoc.org.au. Here’s where you can find out about Email: [email protected] SSA Branches and Sections, and apply to become an accredited statistician. For a more general audience, there is information about careers in statistics, and about the importance of the Further contact details skills of statisticians in general, and accredited statisticians for Society Secretaries in particular. This Newsletter even has a web page, and the and Section Chairs can be Editorswww are hoping to place pdf versions of Newsletters there in obtained by contacting the the future. Society on (02) 6249 8266

24 SSAI Newsletter – May 2003