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Methods of Risk Assessment and Forecasting of Their Consequences

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Methods of Risk Assessment and Forecasting of Their Consequences НАУКОЕМКИЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ В КОСМИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХ ЗЕМЛИ, Т. 10. № 1–2018 ПУБЛИКАЦИИ НА АНГЛИЙСКОМ ЯЗЫКЕ doi 10.24411/2409-5419-2018-10022 Methods of risk assessment and forecasting of their consequences changes in the composition of activities of the Federal space program of Russia for 2016 and 2025, part of the space systems and complexes of double and socio-economic purposes Vasilevsky ABSTRACT Anatoly Vyacheslavovich1 In article the solution of a problem of an assessment of risks, forecasting of their consequenc- es at creation of perspective space systems and complexes of dual and social and economic Velikoivanenko2 purpose within realization of actions of the Federal space program of Russia on 2016 2025 is Vladimir Ilyich submitted. Ways and methods of practical realization of this task are considered. The task of the organization of process of identification of risks which has to consider the main BANDITS problems which are characterizing current state of space-rocket branch and having impact as Vasily Nilovich3 on performance of separate actions, and the Federal space program of Russia for 2016-2025 in general is in details considered. TURINA In article the place of process of management of risks in the general structure of processes Darya Dmitrievna4 regarding information and analytical providing with management of implementation of the Federal space program of Russia for 2016-2025 is defined. The purpose of process of man- agement of risks and the basic principles of its implementation are formulated. Information about authors: The procedure of monitoring of risks providing as control of level of risks of actions, projects 1PhD, Deputy head of the scientific-technical and the Federal space program for 2016-2025 in general, and control of plans of realization center No. 4 Federal state unitary enterprise of actions for decrease in inadmissible levels of risks is stated. "Central scientific research engineering Institute", The procedure of decision-making by results of an assessment of risks which is carried out by Korolev, Russia, [email protected] officials of State corporation on space activity "Roskosmos" and providing depending on the 2PhD, Professor, chief researcher of scientific- technical center No. 4 Federal state unitary level of risks, implementation of the plans of measures on decrease in their level and minimi- enterprise "Central scientific research zation of possible damage is developed. engineering Institute", Korolev, Russia, On the basis of an example of an assessment of risks of realization of ROC "Meteor-3М" prac- Vе[email protected] tical recommendations about application of a complex technique of an assessment of risks 3Lead engineer, 1112, Federal state unitary and forecasting of their consequences at change of structure of actions of the Federal space enterprise "Central scientific research program of Russia for 2016-2025 regarding space systems and complexes of dual and social engineering Institute", Korolev, Russia, and economic purpose are developed. [email protected] 4Deputy head of Department scientific and technical center No. 4 Federal state unitary enterprise "Central scientific research engineering KEYWORDS: multi-criteria methods; evaluation and types of risks; risk event; the perfor- Institute", Korolev, Russia, [email protected] mance characteristics of rocket and space technology. For citation: Vasilevsky A. V., Velikoivanenko V. I., Bandits V. N., Turina D. D. Methods of risk assessment and forecasting of their consequences changes in the composition of activities of the Federal space program of Russia for 2016 and 2025, part of the space systems and complexes of double and socio-economic purposes. H&ES Research. 2017. Vol. 10. No. 1. Pр. 82–99. doi 10.24411/2409-5419-2018-10022 82 Vol. 10. No. 1-2018, H&ES RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS IN ENGLISH General provisions — the failure risks of the implementation of the Program, This methodology is a tool for the formation of risk-ori- projects, Programs in General, and their early termination; ented thinking based on a systemic, process-active and contin- — the failure risks of the implementation of the Pro- uous risk management in space activities [1–10]. gram, projects, Programs in General, further work on imple- To assess the magnitudes of risk events and ensure the mentation and development of action plans to reduce risks. management of risk, we first need to identify them, which The procedure of risk monitoring provides monitoring should take into account the main problems characterizing the of level of risks of the Program activities, projects and Pro- current state of the space industry and which have a significant grammes in General and the control of implementation plans impact on the performance of individual activities "of the Feder- of measures to reduce unacceptable levels of risk. al space program of Russia for 2016–2025" (FSP-2025) and the This technique is developed to account for the risk events Program in General (hereinafter — the Program). in the composition of the method of calculation of efficiency of Risk assessment and forecasting of their consequenc- risk management during the implementation phase of the Pro- es — the most important procedure of the risk management gram and is intended for customers and companies-developers process, which is characterized by complexity and considera- of space systems (complexes) in the justification of the ad- ble complexity. Its main features are: justment measures, stages, projects under the Program. There — focus on the use of information and analytical main- are objective contradictions of space projects (programs) by tenance of the management Programme, taking into account criterion "efficiency-cost". Evolution in technology with the different development scenarios; use of this criterion is shown in fig. 1. — the use of multilevel additive-multiplicative model of risk The purpose of risk management is to ensure the identi- assessment (phase, component, event, Program, project, and Pro- fication, assessment and reduction of threats of failure of the gram in General). In this case, the levels of the stage, project and Program because of the possibility of breakdown of orders, overall Program aggregate assessment of the risk group determined time by the developers of space rocket technology (MSE) due by the additive, and the levels of part and event Programs, the final to wear and tear of production assets, the existing gap in tech- risk rating is calculated using the multiplicative convolution; nological development, the loss of several key technologies, of — the use of a common list of risks approved by the ties, and loss of personnel skills, etc. state Corporation "Roscosmos", which provides methodologi- The main objectives of this technique are: cal unity of risk management at stages of formation and imple- — adequate identification of negative factors of external mentation of the Program; and internal threats, challenges, having a negative impact on application of the methodological approach of expert as- the effectiveness of Programme implementation (cost, timing, sessment of risks implementation stages; values of target indicators and indicators); — the use of the indicator "risk of risk" as a quantitative — risk assessment of implementation phases, compo- measure of risk of implementation phases, components, activ- nents, Program activities, projects and Programs as a whole to ities, project and Program as a whole; identify the most dangerous of them; — the validity of the scale of damage from the risk oc- — timely scientific and technical, technological, organi- currence on the basis of the recommendations of normative zational, personnel and other measures to reduce unacceptable documents for the development and implementation of state levels of risk; programmes of the Russian Federation; — ensuring effective monitoring of risks and imple- — use approved by the state Corporation "Roscosmos" mentation of action plans to reduce unacceptable levels of risk; graded scale assessment of the risks of implementation phas- — implementation of process approach in activity of es, components, activities FSP-2025, projects and Programs in participants of risk management; General for making effective management decisions to reduce — providing the possibility of creating effective and ef- the level of risk, taking into account possible consequences ficient risk management system that meets the organizational and resource provision. structure and scope of activities of the state Corporation "Ros- The procedure for adopting decisions on the results of cosmos" on the management of the implementation of the Pro- the risk assessment Programme is carried out by appropriate gram in terms of its information and analytical support. officials of the state Corporation "Roscosmos" and provides, Methodology of system design and program planning of depending on the level of risk: the creation of the advanced space systems and complexes in — the risk-taking of the implementation of the Pro- the General case defines the following basic methodical risk gramme activities, projects and Programs generally; management procedure (figure 2): — tthe conditional risk — taking of the implementation — identification of risks; of the Program, projects and the Program as a whole with the — risk assessment; development of action plans to minimize them; — the decision on the results of the risk assessment; 83 НАУКОЕМКИЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ В КОСМИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХ ЗЕМЛИ, Т. 10. № 1–2018
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