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EMERGING VERSUS AGING ECONOMIES Department Of CHANGING WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SCENARIO: EMERGING VERSUS AGING ECONOMIES This thesis is submitted as a partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Ph.D in Economics Research Scholar: Abdul Ghafoor Awan Supervisor:- Prof.Dr. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, Department of Economics Islamia University of Bahawalpur-Pakistan ABSTRACT Introduction: The dawn of 21st century has changed the scene of the world economy and shifted the Centre of economic growth from Western hemisphere to the Asian Continent. The global financial crisis of 2008 and European debt crisis of 2010 have exposed inherent weak- ness of G-7 economies, which are facing the challenges of twin deficits, falling productivity, rising debts and aging population. In contrast, the emerging economies particularly, China, India and Brazil, have shown robust economic growth during 2000-2010. China’s fast economic growth since 1960s was the result of gradual shift in its economic system, open door policy and its accession to the world trade organization. The institutional reforms and access to foreign markets has been followed by investment strategies expanded 45% of Chinese GDP during last 40 years. The consistent vertical economic growth has no precedent in the economic history of the world. China has increased its share in world trade from 0.5% in 1960 to 10% in 2010 and accumulated foreign exchange reserves of US$3.19 trillion by March 2013. It is not less than a miracle. Objectives: The objective of this dissertation is to measure the changes taken place in world economy during 2000-2010 and its impact on assets allocation, employment labour productivity, poverty, and allocation of resources. For this purpose the author has selected total 14 countries as a sample and divided them into two groups: G-7 and E-7. The G-7group Include USA, Ger- many, France, UK, Italy, Japan and Canada while E-7 contains China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan. Methodology: The methodology used in this research study is to compare different economic and financial indicators of these two groups of countries in order to obtain desired results. Mostly time series and cross sectional secondary data, collected from data base of IMF, World Bank, China Bureau of National Statistics, US Federal reserves, relevant international research journals and books, has been used. Different statistical and mathematical techniques h a v e been used to estimate changes in selected variables. OLS method was used to measure China economic growth while mathematical model was used to measure US slowdown puzzle. Ratio analysis and content analysis were used to estimate the data. Our study specific period is spread over 10 years from 2000-2010 but we used data beyond this period wherever it is necessary to analyze the genesis of existing world economic i scenario. Total 13 variables have been selected for this study. Among them main variables are: labour productivity, investment, capital accumulation, exports, R&D expenses, output, real exchange rate and technological progress. Different tests were applied to test the stability of the model Findings: The results of the study are very significant because we found that increase in national income of emerging economics has brought trickle down effects and reduced poverty and inequality level in emerging economies. Only in China, about 400 million people have come out of poverty trap due to rising employment opportunities. The share of E-7 economies in the world R& D has increased from14% in 2001 to 20.1% in 2007, while the share of G-7 economies has declined by 2.4% during the same period. In our empirical analysis, the relationship between real gross fixed capital formation that is used as a proxy to capital and real gross domestic product of China is found positive. Theoretically and econometrically it is logical and significant because it is statistically significant at 1 percent level and having more investment in the country will cause of higher incomes as evident in the case of China. Investment in China has been a source of higher incomes from 1980s and now it is leading over world economy. Our empirical evidence shows that almost, 1 percent extra investment in china may raise on average national incomes by 0.26 percent. Our study found negative relationship between exports and real exchange rates. On average one percent increase in the real official exchange rate will lower real gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.07 percent. The negative effect is so small in China’s case because of tight control over official exchange range but it should not be ignored in general. Our results show that traditional production function “AK” and technological progress production function “R&D” are different. In “AK” production function the input and output increase in the same ratio as we increase inputs, we will get growth in output in the same ratio. There is a constant return to scale in “AK” production function. In contrast, in “R&D” production function diminishing return to scale has been noted during out empirical analysis of U.S. productivity growth slowdown case because the increase in the number of researchers and R&D expenditures does not increase output in the same ratio. Our empirical analysis shows if we increase the number of researchers by 100% we will get only 40 percent output. The 60 percent output gap is huge. This is one of the main apparent cause of U.S. productivity slowdown. ii Table of Content S.No. Page No. Abstract i Acknowledgement iii Dedication iv Declaration v Certificate from Supervisor vi Approval vii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1. Problem Statement 6 1.2. Objectives of the Study 7 1.3. Scope of Study 7 1.4. Study design 8 Chapter 2: Literature Review 10 2.1 G-7 Economies 10 2.2 Emerging Economies 24 2.3 The identified gap in the literature 27 2.4 Distinction of this study 29 Chapter 3 Research Methodology 31 3.1 Research Question 31 3.2 Assumption of study 32 3.3 Sample 33 3.4 Study period 34 3.5 Hypothesis 34 3.6 Types of Data and sources 35 3.7 Variables 35 3.8 Specification of Model 36 iii 3.9 Estimation procedures 37 3.10. Statistical Tests 39 Chapter 4: Economic Potential of G-7 Countries 42 I- Individual profile of G-7 countries 42 4.1 United States of America 42 4.1.1 Demographic structure 43 4.1.2 Composition of GDP 44 4.1.3 U.S. Competitive Edge 47 4.1.4 U.S. Economic downturn 49 4.1.5 Declining Exports 49 4.1.6 Energy Resources and Consumption 49 4.1.7 Gap between Revenue and Expenditures 50 4.1.8 U.S. Unemployment Rate 51 4.1.9 Wealth and Income Distribution 51 4.1.10 Causes of income inequality 53 4.1.11 Public Debt 57 4.1.12 Budget Deficit 58 4.1.13 Downgrading of U.S. Credit Rating 59 4.1.14 Aging Population 59 4.1.15 Aging Infrastructure 61 4.1.16 U.S. R.&D Expenditures 62 4.2 Japan 63 4.2.1 Structure of Economy 63 4.2.2 How Japanese Economy was re-built? 63 4.2.3 The decade of economic miracle 65 4.2.4 Assets price bubbles 65 4.2.5 Loss of two decades growth 66 4.2.6 Scarcity of Natural Resources 67 4.2.7 Shrinking Labour force 67 4.3 Germany 67 iv 4.3.1 Economic Structure 68 4.3.2 Poor Natural Resources 69 4.3.3 Energy Resources and Consumption 70 4.4 Italy 70 4.4.1 Geography and Demographic structure 70 4.4.2 Centre of Ancient Civilization 71 4.4.3 Economic Structure 72 4.4.4 Re-building the Economy 72 4.4.5 Effects of 2008 Financial Crisis 73 4.4.6 Austerity Plan 74 4.5 Canada 74 4.5.1 Demographic structure 75 4.5.2 Economic Structure 75 4.5.3 Effects of 2008 Financial Crisis 77 4.5.4 Aging Infrastructure 77 4.6 France 78 4.6.1 Energy Resources and Consumption 79 4.6.2 Wealth and Income Inequality 79 4.7 United Kingdom 79 4.7.1 Economic Structure 80 4.7.1.1 Automotive sector 81 4.7.1.2 Biotechnology Industry 81 4.7.1.3 Electronic and IT Industry 81 4.7.1.4 Aerospace Industry 82 4.7.1.5 Energy Resources and Consumption 82 4.7.1.6 Wealth and Income distribution 83 4.7.1.7 Aging Infrastructure 83 4.8 A Collective glance at G-7 84 Chapter 5: The Impact of 2008 Financial Crisis on G-7 Economies 87 5.1 Crisis Effects at Macro Level 87 v 5.2 Crisis Effects at Micro Level 88 5.2.1 U.S. Households’ net assets worth decline 88 5.2.2 Unrest in the Middle Class 88 5.2.3 Violent protest in the United States 90 5.2.4 Protest in Canada 91 5.2.5 Protest in Spain 91 5.2.6 Protest in Italy 92 5.2.7 Growing Crimes in the United States 92 5.2.8 Abandoning U.S. Citizenship 94 Chapter 6 Economic Potential of E-7 countries 95 6.1 People Republic of China 95 6.1.1 Size of Potential of Chinese Economy 95 6.1.2 China’s Growth policies and their impacts 96 6.1.3 Pre-reform economic policies 96 6.1.4 Post reforms economic policies 98 6.1.4.1 End of commune system 99 6.1.4.2 Restructuring state-owned Enterprises 99 6.1.4.3 One Child Policy 100 6.1.4.4 Establishment of Special Economic Zones 100 6.1.4.5 Promoting Savings 101 6.1.4.6 Investment in fixed assets and infrastructure 102 6.1.4.7 Promoting Foreign Direct Investment 103 6.1.4.8 GDP Expansion 104 6.1.4.9 China’s share in the World GDP 106 6.1.4.10 Expansion of Manufacturing base 106 6.1.4.11 Human Capital Stock 107 6.1.4.12 Entry into World Trade Organization 109 6.1.4.13 Low wages policy to attain competitive advantages 109 6.1.4.14 China’s International Trade 110 6.1.4.15 Growing Energy Demand 110 vi 6.1.4.16 China’s investment in other countries 111 6.1.4.17 High Corporate Profit 112 6.1.4.18 Capital Market Development 113 6.1.4.19 Change in demographic structure 114 6.1.4.20 Alleviation of Poverty 114 6.1.4.21 China’s Exchange Rate policy 116 6.1.4.22 Income Inequality 117 6.1.4.23 Banking System 118 6.2 India 119 6.2.1.
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