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Strateg Ic a Ssessmen T Strategic Assessment Assessment Strategic Volume 21 | No. 1 | April 2018 Volume 21 Volume The Development of Security-Military Thinking in the IDF Gabi Siboni, Yuval Bazak, and Gal Perl Finkel The Day after the Islamic State: The Problem of Power Vacuums Rob Geist Pinfold and Udi Dekel | No. 1 No. The Struggle over the Future of Iraq: Looking to the Parliamentary Elections and Beyond | April 2018 Eldad Shavit The Competition between Middle East Powers: Expeditionary Bases and Non-State Proxies Ron Tira and Yoel Guzansky European Interest in Egyptian Stability: The Case of Italy Valentina Cominetti Establishing a European Security Community: Milestones and Strategic Implications Yotam Rosner and Shira Bar-Joseph To What Extent Is the European Union United? Emerging Tensions between Eastern and Western Europe Adi Kantor and Sharon Malka Beyond Beer Sheva: Assessing Australia-Israel Relations Rotem Nusem Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 21 | No. 1 | April 2018 Abstracts | 3 The Development of Security-Military Thinking in the IDF | 7 Gabi Siboni, Yuval Bazak, and Gal Perl Finkel The Day after the Islamic State: The Problem of Power Vacuums | 21 Rob Geist Pinfold and Udi Dekel The Struggle over the Future of Iraq: Looking to the Parliamentary Elections and Beyond | 33 Eldad Shavit The Competition between Middle East Powers: Expeditionary Bases and Non-State Proxies | 45 Ron Tira and Yoel Guzansky European Interest in Egyptian Stability: The Case of Italy | 59 Valentina Cominetti Establishing a European Security Community: Milestones and Strategic Implications | 69 Yotam Rosner and Shira Bar-Joseph To What Extent Is the European Union United? Emerging Tensions between Eastern and Western Europe | 81 Adi Kantor and Sharon Malka Beyond Beer Sheva: Assessing Australia-Israel Relations | 93 Rotem Nusem Strategic ASSESSMENT The purpose of Strategic Assessment is to stimulate and enrich the public debate on issues that are, or should be, on Israel’s national security agenda. Strategic Assessment is a quarterly publication comprising policy- oriented articles written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor in Chief Amos Yadlin Editor Mark A. Heller Associate Editor Judith Rosen Managing Editor Moshe Grundman Editorial Board Shlomo Brom, Oded Eran, Moshe Grundman, Yoel Guzansky, Mark A. Heller, Ephraim Kam, Anat Kurz, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Judith Rosen, Amos Yadlin Editorial Advisory Board Dan Ben-David, Azar Gat, Efraim Halevy, Tamar Hermann, Itamar Rabinovich, Shimon Shamir, Gabi Sheffer, Emmanual Sivan, Shimon Stein, Asher Susser, Eyal Zisser Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Strategic Assessment is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il © All rights reserved. ISSN 0793-8942 Abstracts The Development of Security-Military Thinking in the IDF Gabi Siboni, Yuval Bazak, and Gal Perl Finkel Although Israel has benefited from nearly absolute physical military superiority in recent decades, it appears, paradoxically, that its achievements against its enemies are diminishing. Theoreticians have explained this as “predestined,” deriving from the nature of new confrontations. This article will present an alternative approach, arguing that the phenomenon derives mainly from a weakening of military thinking in the IDF. It maintains that strengthening military thinking is critical for the development of an innovative doctrine, which the IDF and the State of Israel have needed in order to contend with the changing threats since the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War. Keywords: IDF, doctrine, combat theory, technology, maneuver, fire The Day after the Islamic State: The Problem of Power Vacuums Rob Geist Pinfold and Udi Dekel The essay considers the territory in Syria that was liberated from the control of the Islamic State. Reclaimed territory in this war-torn state has been characterized by power vacuums that are often filled by pro- Assad groups, including Iranian proxy forces that severely repress local Sunnis. Subsequently, increased Iranian influence has fed resentment and legitimized Salafi jihadist forces in the eyes of many Syrian Sunnis. The essay advocates the counteracting of this trend by imbuing power vacuums with stability through local empowerment and non-sectarian governance, thereby mitigating ethnic and religious divisions. Examining case studies in Syria, the essay delineates policy implications for the United States and Israel in order to reverse the negative trends identified. Keywords: ISIS, Islamic State, Syria, Iran, power vacuums, territory, jihadists, Shiite militias Strategic Assessment | Volume 21 | No. 1 | April 2018 3 ABSTRACTS 4 The Struggle over the Future of Iraq: Looking to the Parliamentary Elections and Beyond Eldad Shavit The defeat of the Islamic State and the upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections in May 2018 place Iraq at a crossroads for the first time in years. At the heart of this junction is an attempt to overcome a host of challenges in order to prevent yet another downward spiral into instability and a | Volume 21 | No. 1 | April 2018 21 | No. Volume | strengthening of radical Islam. The Shiite camp is expected to maintain its strength in the parliament, and the Shiite militias, most of which are affiliated with Iran, will attempt to translate their success in the struggle against the Islamic State into political capital in order to integrate into the Iraqi political sphere. In the year to come, Iraq will likely continue to Strategic Assessment Strategic constitute an arena of struggle between the United States and Iran. Whereas the US administration centers its strategy primarily on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Iranian policy vis-à-vis Iraq is implemented broadly and on a number of levels in order to ensure broader influence. Though Israel has no direct influence over Iraq, it must nonetheless recognize that the future of Iraq will impact directly on its ability to limit the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the region, and in Syria and Lebanon in particular. Keywords: Iraq, Iran, United States, regime stability The Competition between Middle East Powers: Expeditionary Bases and Non-State Proxies Ron Tira and Yoel Guzansky Competition between the Middle East regional powers is often conducted indirectly or in the territories of third countries. The need to intervene in third party and often distant theaters, and to project force on non- bordering regional competitors – which was not the focus of the regional powers’ traditional force buildup – has received more attention in recent years, and focuses, inter alia, on establishing military bases in territories of third countries and on expanding the use of non-state proxies. These trends give expression to deeper issues, including the challenge facing regional powers in acquiring operational access to their areas of interest. This joins their growing need for force projection far from their borders and protection of interests in the competition for regional influence, inter alia, against the backdrop of the serial collapse of Arab states that has left an extensive power vacuum in many territories. ABSTRACTS 5 Keywords: expeditionary bases, non-state proxies, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates European Interest in Egyptian Stability: The Case of Italy Valentina Cominetti This paper analyzes the evolution of Italian-Egyptian relations after the murder of Giulio Regeni and the reasons behind the relatively quick resolution of the crisis. The Regeni case illustrates how most European 1 | April 2018 21 | No. Volume | countries see Egyptian stability as vital, to the extent that they are willing to pay for it in terms of leverage and credibility. However, while Europeans may turn a blind eye to Egyptian government repression, and this repression may well curb the flow of migrants to Europe, it could also become a greater driver of chaos in the longer term. Nevertheless, European leaders, largely Assessment Strategic for populist electoral reasons, are unlikely to adopt a more farsighted strategy toward Egypt. Keywords: Egypt, Italy, Europe, migration, immigration Establishing a European Security Community: Milestones and Strategic Implications Yotam Rosner and Shira Bar-Joseph In December 2017, 25 defense ministers from European Union countries concluded an agreement on a program for permanent structured cooperation in the European security community (PESCO). This formative decision comes against the backdrop of a series of security developments that prompted European leaders to take steps to establish a pan-European security community based on cooperation on numerous security issues, such as: supervision of international waters, cooperation between intelligence services, and development of cyber capabilities. The article first presents the historical developments of the European security community and the challenges that led to the signing of the PESCO agreement. It then focuses on the objectives of the European army, its institutional and economic infrastructure, and the projects within its purview. The article also discusses the strategic implications of the agreement for the ties with
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