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Chapter 2 and 3 University of Groningen Dutch intelligence - towards a qualitative framework for analysis Valk, Guillaume Gustav de IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2005 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Valk, G. G. D. (2005). Dutch intelligence - towards a qualitative framework for analysis: with case tudies on the Shipping Research Bureau and the National Security Service (BVD). s.n. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). The publication may also be distributed here under the terms of Article 25fa of the Dutch Copyright Act, indicated by the “Taverne” license. More information can be found on the University of Groningen website: https://www.rug.nl/library/open-access/self-archiving-pure/taverne- amendment. Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 01-10-2021 2 Intelligence: concept, process, institution, and political context What is intelligence, and what is its concept? What models are used to process intelligence? Moreover, what is its relation with its (political) context? This chapter explores insights into these aspects of intelligence. To begin with, the concept of intelligence is presented (2.1). An explanation is given concerning the extent the field of intelligence has been developed as a discipline. This sets limits to the way issues as methods can be dealt with (chapter 3). After this first positioning of intelligence, some basic insights in the intelligence process are given (2.2), starting with different models of the intelligence process. This gives a context to the analysis (which is object of study of chapter 3). In these models, the input and output of information play an important role. Therefore, separate attention is paid to the different types of intelligence collection, and the different types of intelligence products. Concer- ning the intelligence products, more in-depth discussion explains the issue of warning. After this introduction of concepts and processes, attention is paid to the more general context of intelligence analysis. First, the organizational aspects are dealt with (2.3). Insights are explored on the relationship between organi- zation and quality. The concept of a Review Section is discussed. In addition, there is a discussion about training and education. This introductory chapter is concluded by setting intelligence in its political context (2.4). Because intelligence functions as part of a political (or a corpo- rate) system, attention is paid to the relation between intelligence and politics. In this way, a division is made between chapter 2 and 3. Where as chapter 2 emphasizes the relation between analysts and politics (relevance, acceptance), the emphasis in chapter 3 is on the relation between analysts and the investigation (validity, reliability, robustness). Part of the discussion on analysis and politics, concerns also the relation between openness and quality. As there is more to openness and quality than just a political aspect, this issue is dealt with as a separate – and final – issue of this chapter. 2.1 CONCEPT What is the concept of intelligence? To what extent has intelligence studies been developed as a discipline? Together with some very basic features, these ques- tions are discussed in this section. 8 DUTCH INTELLIGENCE The concept of intelligence What is intelligence? There are many definitions of intelligence. Sometimes it is used to describe a product, sometimes to describe a process, or both. In this study, the concept of intelligence is used for the analysis of information processes within public and private organizations, which play a role in the prevention and repression of (organized) crime, fraud, and infringement of a democratic legal order.1 Intelligence is information that is gathered, processed, and/or analyzed for actors or decision makers. If these actors are national decision makers, it is often called national intelligence – intelligence on international security issues. Yet, intelligence may also be used by companies or for domestic security.2 As noted, there are many definitions of intelligence. Sometimes, in contrast with the actual reality of agencies the definition of intelligence is restricted to secret information (yet, open sources form the majority of information); information that is designed for action (but, not always the case); information, which is meant for national public policymakers (but intelligence can also be meant for sister agencies or even companies); or to information about countries or national intelligence (excluding intelligence on persons or domestic intelligence).3 The chosen definition does not have these drawbacks mentioned. Intelligence has the power to multiply the value and effectiveness of the forces used by policymakers and other actors to combat a danger. Yet, intelligence is a fallible asset. It is likely that you can find for every successful application of intelligence, as a force enhancer, a counter example where intelligence failed to live up to its potential.4 Furthermore, intelligence is generally not the only information on a certain issue that reaches an actor or a decision maker. Intelligence is often referred to as the division between domestic and international security. Domestic security refers to security within the national boundaries. Its aim is to counter threats manifesting itself within the country. Foreign intelligence relates to actors or matters beyond the national boundaries. It is aimed at operating abroad and getting information on anything that an agency wants to know about foreign actors.5 Of course, there are overlaps. Foreign intelligence is about issues such as verification of arms treaties, warning for war and international terrorism, strategic planning, or the nature, capabilities, 1 Van der Aart/editorial, “Erasmus Centre for Police Studies,” NISA Newsletter, Spring 1997, No. 1, Year 6, 19. 2 Wiebes, “Hookers and sportscars?” Verspieders voor het vaderland, 1996, 13-14. 3 Ibid., 13-14. In Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië, it is explained that many definitions have some serious limitations (Wiebes, Intelligence en de oorlog in Bosnië 1992-1995, 2002, 14-16). The definition used in this study does not have the limitations that are evaluated here. Still, it is oriented towards democratic legal orders, in regards to its phrase on ‘infringement of a democratic legal order.’ 4 Probst, “Intelligence as a Force Enhancer,” CIA’s Studies in Intelligence (CIA/SII), Winter 1987, 61, 67. 5 Notes by W.P.J. Keller to the author, 26 November 2004. INTELLIGENCE: CONCEPT 9 and intentions of foreign opponents.6 Domestic security relates to issues such as counterespionage, terrorism, or political violent activism. Intelligence and security agency reports and intelligence studies: a characterization Following this first definition of the field, we will now provide an overview of how this field has been developed. Within intelligence, several activities take prominence. First, there is the collection of information and the production of intelligence and security agency reports. Second, there are activities as operations, security and counter intelligence measures, and covert diplomacy.7 As this study is on the quality of intelligence and security agency reports, the focus is on the first activity – to collect information and to produce reports. This first activity is characterized by some general features. Although these features do not apply to all individual cases of producing reports, they do help us to gain an overview of what takes place. These features also show that the practice of producing a report is a difficult one. The features that will be described here will be return to in chapter 3 to discuss the characteristics of different types of intelligence research, and to help develop the criteria of the ex ante instrument. In general, the production of intelligence and security agency reports is characterized by the following features: 1. Interdisciplinary. In many cases, analysts combine methods, data, and findings from completely different professional fields into one analysis. What methods and concepts are adequate, given a certain question? Moreover, how should data from different perspectives be integrated? 2. Future oriented. To serve politics, intelligence is future oriented. As the future is unknown, it is by definition a hard field to explore. An element of speculation is often included in intelligence and security agency reports. This element of speculation is more prominently present than in science. The risks that analysts take into account when speculating, make their job a vulnerable one. 3. Inaccessible data. Agencies often deal with opponents and hidden factors. The resulting inaccessibility of data can be described in two
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