NASA’s Race for Regional Jet Reset Air Base Defense a Lunar Lander Mitsubishi Shelves M100 Reimagined

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DEPARTMENTS 5 | Feedback 13 | The Launchpad 6 | Who’s Where 56 | Classified 8-9 | First Take 57 | Contact Us 10 | Up Front 57 | Aerospace 11 | Going Concerns Calendar 12 | Leading Edge

FEATURES The COVID-19 pandemic has added perilous twists to the 13 United Arab Emirates’ effort to launch its first Mars mission. 14 | Lunar Landers Blue Origin, Dynetics and SpaceX win NASA contracts to develop systems for crewed Moon landing 28 | CARES act weaknesses cause 45 | A new Chinese naval JL-9 appears, 20 | Preservation Priority flurry of disputes possibly for carriers On the lookout for opportunities, 30 | Mitsubishi M100 suspension alters 46 USAF Agility Prime aims to boost carriers strive to store aircraft in | regional jet market dynamics again investor confidence in eVTOL ready-to-use condition MAINTENANCE, REPAIR ROTORCRAFT 34 | Back to Orbit AND OVERHAUL 48 | Fiber-optic sensing could transform The Pentagon reveals experiments 32 | Airline fleet change will trigger main rotor blade technology attached to the X-37B Orbital aftermarket reset Test Vehicle DEFENSE PROPULSION 40 | Lighter and Leaner 36 | MDA revives dormant concept for 49 | Is Super-STOL a viable alternative to Okinawan exercise offers glimpse extended-range THAAD electric vertical takeoff and landing? into the U.S. Air Force’s future air war strategy 37 | Latest South Korean ballistic UNMANNED AVIATION missile hurls hefty warhead 53 | Technology Lift 52 | Drone services are being promoted Air cargo counts on robotics, 38 | Boeing ATS puts autonomy for in U.S. coronavirus battle Bluetooth tracking and blockchain loyal-wingman teaming to the test VIEWPOINT to smooth operations and gain efficiency 42 | Finnish fighter needs to challenge 58 | Accelerate aircraft retirements to bidders’ capabilities save the aerospace supply chain

SPACE 18 | Launch of Long March 5B opens ON THE COVER Chinese space station phase Uncertainty about how quickly passenger demand will return amid the novel coronavirus pandemic has COMMERCIAL AVIATION airlines hedging bets with their fleet strategies, blurring the lines between which aircraft are in service, parked or being stored. Our report by France Bureau Chief Thierry Dubois and Air Transport and 22 | Pandemic prompts big four U.S. Safety Editor Sean Broderick begins on page 20. Andy Luten photo. airlines to shuffle their fleets Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 25 | Regulators struggle to agree on conditions for reopening air travel DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Market Briefi ngs. Beijing Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK

Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] HAND-FLYING SKILLS memories of McDonnell Aircraft not reliable now that no one is fl ying

Executive Editors In reply to “Manual Profi ciency” e„ orts in the late 1960s to sell the regularly. But I am staying up to date Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] (March 23-April 5, p. 6), the evolution concept of city-center-to-city-center with my timely digital copy. I can now Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] of automation on modern aircraft short-takeo„ -and-landing (STOL) see all the additional material that is Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] requires a process that enables pilots operations to major U.S. airlines. I was available to me by this means. Even Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Editors to practice and maintain their skills part of the fl ight-test team that con- though I am “old-school,” I am adjust- Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, to manually fl y the aircraft. fi gured the aircraft in airline livery for ing to my new normal with some good Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- As a former line check airline pilot, both Eastern Airlines and American reading from my favorite aerospace Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, I have concluded that few pilots get Airlines. Aircraft were fl own by senior correspondents. Thank you, AW&ST ! Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, or take the opportunity to practice line pilots with a French co-pilot. For Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble basic fl ying skills. Nearly absent in Eastern, we fl ew simulated com- Paul Simadas, Redfern, Australia Fred George Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor our training and also during normal mercial fl ights from Washington to Michael O. Lavitt Director, Editorial and Online Production line operations, is hand-fl ying. During New York City (using a simulated DESIGN QUESTIONS Andrea Hollowell Associate Managing Editor normal operations, hand-fl ying the downtown STOL runway along the As a veteran of the Boeing SST pro- Lisa Caputo Art Director aircraft should be encouraged. To piers on the Hudson River). And for gram, I am interested in the change of Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Artists provide this opportunity, air tra­ c American, we fl ew from St. Louis to the airplane confi guration referenced Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Copy Editors control (ATC) could, when absent a Chicago Midway and Meigs Field. in the excellent article “Supersonic Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie tra­ c confl ict, o„ er a cruise climb We fl ew loads of up to 18 VIP pas- Evolution” (April 20-May 3, p. 50). It Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Production Editors or descent. This will provide an sengers to collect data on passenger reminds me of the Hawker Siddley Joseph Pries Contributing Photographer opportunity to hand-fl y without being acceptance and market potential for Type 1011 of 1962 but with fi xed wings. Rupa Haria Director, Digital Content Strategy subject to an altitude bust. Cruise the city-center operations concept. In The Aerion preliminary design Rija Tariq Content Marketing Manager allows for intermediate level-o„ s one amusing incident, the antinoise review is six months away, and items Data & Analytics without notifying ATC. coalition in Chicago gathered around not mentioned in the article would Brian Kough Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights All pilots should be encouraged Midway to record the noise signature need answers: Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production during climb or descent to manually of the potential new noise threat, and ■ Are there thrust reversers, and Terra Deskins follow the movement of the throt- they were unable to distinguish any are they e„ ective? (Think prototype Michael Tint Manager, Military Data Operations tles with their hand when the auto noise signature from the Breguet Boeing 737.) Editorial Offices throttles are engaged. During check versus the truck tra­ c on streets ■ With the small tailplane, are deep 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 rides, this should be required, or at surrounding Midway. The reason for stall issues addressed? Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 least debriefed, to ensure that this the lack of noise signature was that ■ Is tire-burst analysis complete? 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe is being accomplished. When auto the aircraft was so maneuver- Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 throttles were placarded or failed, able we were able to climb to Robert Ridgwell, Kirkland, dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland several accidents have occurred. 8,000 ft. without ever overfl y- Washington IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Pilots have become overconfi dent and ing the airport boundaries. Market Briefi ngs. Beijing too reliant on automation and have That made for a fun fl ight. ONLINE, Allison Wright writes Bradley Perrett [email protected] fallen behind the aircraft. So more than 50 years on Twitter in response to the Cape Canaveral Automation on modern aircraft can ago, there were actual fl ight April 20-May 3 cover: These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] exceed most pilots’ hand-fl ying skills. demonstrations on the @AviationWeek and @Aerion Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] This promotes its use as a safer and now-in-vogue concept of Corp thank you for the cover executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt easier mode of operation; however, short-fi eld short-haul. of this magazine! My 4.5 market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] when automation fails, pilots must The economics didn’t year old LOVES Super- Houston be able to safely hand-fl y the aircraft work then, and I doubt sonic Airplanes! I cut it drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] while addressing any other issues they will now, but it out and laminated it so London that may have developed. was sure fun to try. he can fl y it around! Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles Most Airbus aircraft now use the LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] sidestick controller instead of the Brad Gale, Fort Worth Lyon yoke. Although the handling skills CLARIFICATION aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] are not compromised, the pilot not DIGITAL EXTRAS In “Balanced Capitalism” Moscow fl ying has no idea what the other pilot One of the unintended (April 20-May 3, p. 6), the Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] is commanding. The pilot not fl ying consequences of the second paragraph should Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] should have the ability to view a pic- COVID-19 aviation shut- have begun: “In the fi rst Washington torial screen to determine what the down has been the inability business law course as part

W Jen DiMascio [email protected] other pilot is doing. Air France Flight to “land” my printed copy of the graduate industrial man- Wichita 447 might have had a better outcome of AW&ST in my hometown agement curriculum at Clark- Molly McMillin [email protected] if this had been available. of Sydney in Australia. son University (then Clarkson International airmail is College of Technology). . . .” President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Robert Bertrand, Jupiter, Florida Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon THE SHORT OF IT Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, The photo of the Breguet 941 in 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: “Short-Field Short-Haul” (April [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; 20-May 3, p. 12) brought back many a verifi able address and daytime telephone number are required.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 WHO’S WHERE

Amy Gowder has Jennifer Upton has was project manager for airframe been hired by Aerojet been named director teardowns. Rocketdyne as chief of acquisition at the Inflite Group Jet operating officer. NATO Communica- Centre has appointed She succeeds Mark tions and Information Steve Hughes gener- Tucker, who is retir- Agency. Upton’s al manager of Excel- ing. Gowder also will Defense Department lence Aviation Ser- serve as an officer of contracting experi- vices Ltd., located parent Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings. ence includes service with the U.S. at London Stansted She was Lockheed Martin vice presi- Naval Special Warfare Command and Airport, as well general manager of its dent and general manager for training U.S. Special Operations Forces. continuing airworthi ness management and logistics within the rotary and mis- Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty organization (CAMO) activity. Hughes sion systems unit. (AGCS) has named Chuck Couch was general manager of CAMO and Thales has appointed Alex Cresswell North America head of aviation pro- UK Civil Aviation Authority nominat- CEO and chairman of Thales UK. grams and product development. He ed post holder at Luxaviation. Christophe Salomon succeeds him as was AGCS product lead for aviation Markus Haggeney has been named executive vice president for land and workers’ compensation in the U.S. secretary general of the World Air air systems and joins the executive and manager for a group of national Sports Federation from acting secre- committee. Salomon was chief infor- aviation specialty programs, including tary general. mation officer at EDF. Allianz Drone. Wisk, the urban air mobility Akima has hired Duncan Greene Kaman Corp. has promoted company behind the world’s first as president of mission systems for Rebecca Stath to vice president of autonomous, all-electric air taxi, has engineering and technology. He will accounting and principal accounting hired Dan Dalton as vice president oversee group companies providing officer from internal audit manager of global partnerships. Dalton was mission support, IT and analytic ser- and Lisa Barry to vice president of Airspace Systems’ executive vice vices to the Defense Department and financial planning and analysis from president of strategic partnerships the intelligence community. Greene, a finance manager. and a visiting sci- former CIA officer, was BAE Systems Robert Ulibarri has been named entist at Lawrence vice president and general manager general manager of Saab’s $37 mil- Livermore National for space intelligence lion aerospace facility for high-tech Laboratory. and global analysis. commercial aerospace systems de- Racquel Asa has James R. Clapper velopment at Purdue University’s been hired as chief has joined the Univer- Discovery Park District. He was in- marketing officer for sity of Pennsylvania’s dustrial automation general manager Beep, a startup in Center for Ethics and at Eckhart USA and held leadership the autonomous mobility communi- the Rule of Law execu- positions at Lennox International and cations sector for future robotic ve- tive board. He was di- Oshkosh Corp. hicular passenger transport systems rector of national intelligence, under- North American Aerospace Industries, in low-speed environments. Asa was secretary of defense for intelligence, an aircraft recycling a transportation journalist for WFTV and director of defense intelligence, company, has hired in Orlando. respectively, for several administra- Janos Virag as direc- tions. After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist tor of innovation. He HONORS AND ELECTIONS attacks, he came out of retirement to was an aviation man- Veteran Smithso- become the first civilian director of the ufacturing instructor nian National Air National Imagery and Mapping Agen- and manager of and Space Museum cy, transforming it into the National Airbus A350XWB curator Dorothy Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. fabrication with Lenoir Communi- Cochrane has Carol Tome has been named CEO ty College/Spirit AeroSystems in been chosen by the of UPS. She succeeds David Abney, Kinston, North Carolina. Nation al Aeronau- who will retire from the board in Sep- APOC Aviation has promoted Jim tic Association to tember. Tome has served on the UPS Nypels to its new engine trading di- receive the 2020 Katharine Wright board since 2003, and was chief finan- vision. He will facilitate engine-part Trophy, awarded for long-term cial officer for Home Depot. sales and evaluate engine stock for advance ment of “the art, sport and Keystone Aviation has hired J. Dan trading, leasing or teardown. Nypels science of aviation and spaceflight.” c Govatos as director of operations for its private jet charter, aircraft man- agement and maintenance services. To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no He has captained on Airbus, Boeing, PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on Falcon, Gulfstream and other air- companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence craft types for airline and corporate Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone operations. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE

Amy Gowder has Jennifer Upton has was project manager for airframe been hired by Aerojet been named director teardowns. Rocketdyne as chief of acquisition at the Inflite Group Jet operating officer. NATO Communica- Centre has appointed She succeeds Mark tions and Information Steve Hughes gener- Tucker, who is retir- Agency. Upton’s al manager of Excel- ing. Gowder also will Defense Department lence Aviation Ser- serve as an officer of contracting experi- vices Ltd., located parent Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings. ence includes service with the U.S. at London Stansted She was Lockheed Martin vice presi- Naval Special Warfare Command and Airport, as well general manager of its dent and general manager for training U.S. Special Operations Forces. continuing airworthi ness management and logistics within the rotary and mis- Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty organization (CAMO) activity. Hughes sion systems unit. (AGCS) has named Chuck Couch was general manager of CAMO and Thales has appointed Alex Cresswell North America head of aviation pro- UK Civil Aviation Authority nominat- CEO and chairman of Thales UK. grams and product development. He ed post holder at Luxaviation. Christophe Salomon succeeds him as was AGCS product lead for aviation Markus Haggeney has been named executive vice president for land and workers’ compensation in the U.S. secretary general of the World Air air systems and joins the executive and manager for a group of national Sports Federation from acting secre- committee. Salomon was chief infor- aviation specialty programs, including tary general. Navigate the Road to mation officer at EDF. Allianz Drone. Wisk, the urban air mobility Akima has hired Duncan Greene Kaman Corp. has promoted company behind the world’s first as president of mission systems for Rebecca Stath to vice president of autonomous, all-electric air taxi, has engineering and technology. He will accounting and principal accounting hired Dan Dalton as vice president Recovery with Confi dence oversee group companies providing officer from internal audit manager of global partnerships. Dalton was mission support, IT and analytic ser- and Lisa Barry to vice president of Airspace Systems’ executive vice vices to the Defense Department and financial planning and analysis from president of strategic partnerships the intelligence community. Greene, a finance manager. and a visiting sci- The only solution dedicated to commercial aftermarket former CIA officer, was BAE Systems Robert Ulibarri has been named entist at Lawrence vice president and general manager general manager of Saab’s $37 mil- Livermore National professionals, MRO Prospector contains accurate and reliable for space intelligence lion aerospace facility for high-tech Laboratory. and global analysis. commercial aerospace systems de- Racquel Asa has MRO data and intelligence so you can fi nd new opportunities. James R. Clapper velopment at Purdue University’s been hired as chief has joined the Univer- Discovery Park District. He was in- marketing officer for sity of Pennsylvania’s dustrial automation general manager Beep, a startup in Center for Ethics and at Eckhart USA and held leadership the autonomous mobility communi- the Rule of Law execu- positions at Lennox International and cations sector for future robotic ve- tive board. He was di- Oshkosh Corp. hicular passenger transport systems rector of national intelligence, under- North American Aerospace Industries, in low-speed environments. Asa was secretary of defense for intelligence, an aircraft recycling a transportation journalist for WFTV and director of defense intelligence, company, has hired in Orlando. respectively, for several administra- Janos Virag as direc- Details on thousands Discover maintenance Research operator’s fl eets tions. After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist tor of innovation. 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Tome has served on the UPS Nypels to its new engine trading di- receive the 2020 Katharine Wright Visit aviationweek.com/MROP to schedule your demo. board since 2003, and was chief finan- vision. He will facilitate engine-part Trophy, awarded for long-term cial officer for Home Depot. sales and evaluate engine stock for advance ment of “the art, sport and Keystone Aviation has hired J. Dan trading, leasing or teardown. Nypels science of aviation and spaceflight.” c Govatos as director of operations for its private jet charter, aircraft man- agement and maintenance services. To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no Call 866.857.0148 (within N. America) He has captained on Airbus, Boeing, PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on +1.847.763.9147, or go to Falcon, Gulfstream and other air- companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence craft types for airline and corporate Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone aviationweek.com/MROP operations. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense Spending TAKE COVIDCOVID ReliefRelief DwarfsDwarfs DefenseDefense SpendingSpending For the latest, go to AVIATIONWEEK.COM GlobalGlobal Defense Defense SpendingSpending in in 2019 2019 (trillions)(trillions) COMMERCIAL AVIATION Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has sus- GovernmentGovernment Stimulus Stimulus pended development of the M100 ver- $1.9$1.9 SpendingSpending in in 2020 2020 sion of the SpaceJet to stanch losses on (trillions)(trillions) the regional jet program that drove the “Who is going to pay the piper?” industrial group into the red for the fis- asks John Dowdy, global aerospace cal year that ended March 31 (page 30). and defense leader at McKinsey & Co., as worldwide costs to combat Avianca Holdings, one of Latin Ameri- $11.0$11.0 ca‘s largest airlines, has filed for Chap- the novel coronavirus pandemic far ter 11 bankruptcy protection after outstrip defense spending. failing to secure a government bailout Source: McKinsey & Co. before the deadline for a $66 million bond repayment.

Italy plans to invest at least €3 billion An ICAO-led task force has issued initial The U.S. Transportation Department ($3.2 billion) in relaunching Alitalia, guidance for travel procedures amid the has offered airlines further relief which is to be renationalized, and is COVID-19 pandemic—covering cargo from minimum flying levels set in the eyeing the long-haul market, according flight crews—and plans to have compre- CARES Act aid package, as concerns to Economic Development Minister hensive protocols drafted by the end of over the financial harm caused by the Stefano Patuanelli. May (page 25). COVID-19 pandemic continue to grow (page 28). VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Having formally decoupled restarting production of the 737 MAX from re - certification on the grounded narrow- F-35’s Challenges ContinueSource:Source: McKinsey McKinsey and and Co. Co. A program intended to deliver new capabilities for the Lockheed body, Boeing and leading supplier Spirit AeroSystems have begun making new Martin F-35 more quickly has been extended by two years because aircraft. of development delays, says the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). JetBlue Airways reached an agreement with Airbus to restructure its aircraft The original schedule called for completing the Block 4 mod- deliveries, pushing out several dozen ernization program in 2024, but this timeline has been extended A321neos past 2022. to 2026, the watchdog agency says in its annual review of the F-35 Mitsubishi’s acquisition of Bombardier’s program. The delay will add $1.5 billion to the cost of developing all CRJ regional jet program is to close on 66 new capabilities in Block 4, taking the price tag to $12.1 billion. June 1, netting the Canadian manufac- Another $3.4 billion is budgeted to procure and insert the capabili- turer $550 million. CASC ties into future U.S. F-35s, the GAO says. Lockheed planned to deliver the first eight Block 4 capabilities last year, but only one—the Automatic Ground-Collision Avoidance System—entered service, the GAO says. As new Block 4 capabilities have entered testing, operational tes- ters have noted some “caused issues” with existing F-35 functions that previously worked, the watchdog says, adding: “The contrac- tor had not performed adequate testing of the software before delivering it to the test fleet.” SPACE Three days after being launched by Long Lockheed has acknowledged the issues, the GAO says, and will March 5B on an unpiloted test flight, conduct additional laboratory testing before releasing future soft- the reentry capsule for a new manned ware blocks. Chinese spacecraft returned to Earth successfully on May 8. China also has

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST QUOTED FIRST “THERE’S A LOT OF PAIN COVID Relief Dwarfs Defense Spending confirmed plans to send a probe to and Australia’s CEA Technologies will TAKE COVIDCOVID ReliefRelief DwarfsDwarfs DefenseDefense SpendingSpending Mars and the Chang’e 5 mission to the compete to replace the U.S. Air Force’s TO COME YET, For the latest, go to Moon by the end of 2020 (page 18). TPS-75 long-range surveillance radar, AVIATIONWEEK.COM after a contract with Raytheon was can- AND A LOT OF GlobalGlobal Defense Defense In case of delays to SpaceX beginning celed last year. SpendingSpending in in 2019 2019 commercial service with its Crew VERY TOUGH DECISIONS (trillions)(trillions) Dragon transportation system, NASA South Korea has test-flown a new type COMMERCIAL AVIATION has bought a $90 million seat on the next of short-range ballistic missile, the [ON] PRODUCTION VOLUMES.” Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has sus- GovernmentGovernment Stimulus Stimulus scheduled Russian Soyuz flight to the Hyunmoo 4, making one successful and pended development of the M100 ver- $1.9$1.9 SpendingSpending in in 2020 2020 International Space Station in October. one unsuccessful shot in March, local sion of the SpaceJet to stanch losses on (trillions)(trillions) media say (page 37). the regional jet program that drove the “Who is going to pay the piper?” SpaceX conducted a static test fire of a industrial group into the red for the fis- full-size, second-stage Starship prototype has asks John Dowdy, global aerospace Leonardo’s M-345 light jet trainer cal year that ended March 31 (page 30). on May 5, briefly firing the test vehicle’s secured certification from Italian mili- and defense leader at McKinsey single methane-fueled Raptor engine. tary airworthiness authorities, a major & Co., as worldwide costs to combat Avianca Holdings, one of Latin Ameri- $11.0$11.0 milestone toward service entry with the ca‘s largest airlines, has filed for Chap- the novel coronavirus pandemic far DEFENSE Italian Air Force. ter 11 bankruptcy protection after outstrip defense spending. Boeing on May 7 rolled out the first of failing to secure a government bailout Source: McKinsey & Co. two test aircraft for the F/A-18E/F Block Airbus is developing a removable refuel- before the deadline for a $66 million III program. The two aircraft will be ing boom for its A330 MRTT aircraft to —CEO GREG HAYES, warning that bond repayment. delivered to the U.S. Navy’s flight-test save weight when the eight-strong Eu- Raytheon Technologies’ commercial squadron in the “coming weeks.” ropean Multinational Multi-Role Tank- aircraft and aftermarket sales could Italy plans to invest at least €3 billion An ICAO-led task force has issued initial The U.S. Transportation Department er Transport Fleet is flying transport each decline by 50%. ($3.2 billion) in relaunching Alitalia, guidance for travel procedures amid the has offered airlines further relief Switzerland has given bidders in its CHF8 and other missions. which is to be renationalized, and is COVID-19 pandemic—covering cargo from minimum flying levels set in the billion ($8.22 billion) fighter and ground- eyeing the long-haul market, according flight crews—and plans to have compre- CARES Act aid package, as concerns based air defense competition three more Greece is to lease two Israeli Aerospace GENERAL AVIATION to Economic Development Minister hensive protocols drafted by the end of over the financial harm caused by the months, to November, to submit propos- Industries Heron medium-altitude, Daher’s 2020 model year TBM 940 tur- Stefano Patuanelli. May (page 25). COVID-19 pandemic continue to grow als due to the COVID-19 pandemic. long-endurance unmanned aircraft for boprop will come equipped with Home- (page 28). three years to patrol the country’s mar- Safe. The emergency autoland system itime borders. is available as part of Garmin’s G3000 VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman Having formally decoupled restarting integrated flight deck. production of the 737 MAX from re - certification on the grounded narrow- As Gulfstream cuts jobs across its oper- F-35’s Challenges ContinueSource:Source: McKinsey McKinsey and and Co. Co. 55 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK A program intended to deliver new capabilities for the Lockheed body, Boeing and leading supplier Spirit ations, including 700 at its Savannah, AeroSystems have begun making new Our cover from May 17, 1965, showed the Georgia, headquarters, a second and Martin F-35 more quickly has been extended by two years because aircraft. first production Dassault Mystere 20 being third aircraft have joined the test pro- of development delays, says the U.S. Government Accountability flown on a demonstration flight for offi- gram for its flagship G700 large busi- agreement ness jet. Office (GAO). JetBlue Airways reached an cials from Pan Am shortly before the cut- with Airbus to restructure its aircraft The original schedule called for completing the Block 4 mod- deliveries, pushing out several dozen ting-edge executive jet was certified. Com- PROMOTED ernization program in 2024, but this timeline has been extended A321neos past 2022. missioned by Marcel Dassault, the Mystere United Airlines is holding course on a to 2026, the watchdog agency says in its annual review of the F-35 20 could carry two pilots and 10 passen- leadership transition plan initiated late Mitsubishi’s acquisition of Bombardier’s gers, with a maximum cruising speed of last year, even as it fights to recover program. The delay will add $1.5 billion to the cost of developing all CRJ regional jet program is to close on Mach 0.8 and a range of more than 2,000 from the effects of the COVID-19 pan- 66 new capabilities in Block 4, taking the price tag to $12.1 billion. June 1, netting the Canadian manufac- km (1,080 nm). Its engines were mounted demic. On May 20, Scott Kirby will be turer $550 million. elevated to CEO and replaced as presi- Another $3.4 billion is budgeted to procure and insert the capabili- on lateral struts. Company history says CASC dent by Brett Hart, who is now executive ties into future U.S. F-35s, the GAO says. Dassault repurposed technologies it had vice president and chief administrative Lockheed planned to deliver the first eight Block 4 capabilities used on French military aircraft for the officer. Current CEO Oscar Munoz will last year, but only one—the Automatic Ground-Collision Avoidance design, such as three-axis servo controls, become executive chair of the board. fine-tuned aerodynamics and “conical System—entered service, the GAO says. wing cambers.” The Mystere 20 proved OBITUARY As new Block 4 capabilities have entered testing, operational tes- to be the ideal platform to launch Pan Electric CF700 turbofans, with options for Rudy Frasca, founder of simulator man- ufacturer Frasca International, died of ters have noted some “caused issues” with existing F-35 functions Am’s diversification into executive aircraft 120 more. Renamed the Fan Jet Falcon and natural causes on May 11 at age 89. A that previously worked, the watchdog says, adding: “The contrac- distribution. The U.S. airline sent famed later the Falcon 20 for U.S. customers, the former U.S. Navy flight instructor who tor had not performed adequate testing of the software before aviator Charles Lindbergh to France in 1963 aircraft went on to great success as the taught pilots on early Link Aviation delivering it to the test fleet.” SPACE to witness its first flight. “I’ve found the original workhorse for Federal Express. The training devices, Frasca founded the Three days after being launched by Long bird,” he proclaimed. Pan Am soon placed U.S. Coast Guard bought a fleet as well. company in 1958. He assembled the first Lockheed has acknowledged the issues, the GAO says, and will March 5B on an unpiloted test flight, orders for 40 aircraft powered by General Production finally ended in 1988. simulator in his garage. Frasca also col- conduct additional laboratory testing before releasing future soft- the reentry capsule for a new manned lected antique and replica aircraft, loan- ware blocks. Chinese spacecraft returned to Earth Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com ing several to the EAA Aviation Museum successfully on May 8. China also has in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. c

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 9 COMMENTARY UP FRONT BYRON CALLAN

THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL will attempt to assert U.S. leadership in ways that could election will be competitive and probably continue to rile China and Russia. However, the admin- will be decided by the electoral college istration would have to balance defense needs against votes of 6-8 states. Although COVID-19 has dominated post-COVID-19 spending needs, and there is a strong thinking about defense, it is a good time for defense likelihood that the magnitude of federal debt will light planners, analysts and management to start consider- new fires in Washington over total U.S. federal spending. ing what the administration of presumptive Democratic There could be other factors to weigh for defense. nominee Joe Biden could mean for the sector in 2021-24. More debate may occur over U.S. strategic and nu- A Biden presidency and Democratic control of clear forces modernization programs—specifically Congress is not likely to be a negative for defense, but the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent and Long- it would introduce some new factors and issues. If Range Standoff Weapon. Artificial intelligence, space Biden wins in Novem- and autonomous sys- ber, Democrats could tems have been cham- also regain a majority Change of Guard? pioned in the Trump in the Senate and retain What would mean administration, but the House majority. Biden for defense their priority may be If that happens, the further elevated in 2022 midterm election 2021-24 and beyond. will be the next major Arms control could marker, because mid- come back into sharper term elections typically focus, as Biden is very are seen as a public unlikely to exit the New verdict on how the START treaty. His ad- president is doing. ministration may seek As can be expected other measures to lim- based on the vast ma- it the risk of crisis and jority of major election counter the potentially campaigns, Biden’s destabilizing effects of team has not put forth hypersonic weapons, much hard budget data cyberattacks on criti- or program specifics cal infrastructure and yet. Biden’s campaign AIRMAN 1ST CLASS CARLIN LESLIE/U.S. AIR FORCE conflict in space. website under “Defend Our Vital Interests” states: The Pentagon’s interaction with contractors could “We have the strongest military in the world—and change as well. Under Biden, there probably would as president, Biden will ensure it stays that way. The not be as many senior Pentagon civilian officials who Biden administration will make the investments neces- formerly worked for contractors as is now the case. sary to equip our forces for the challenges of the next There may be initiatives to shift risk to contractors century, not the last one.” He will also “end forever from the Pentagon and to incentivize development. wars” in Afghanistan and the Middle East, it states. Efforts to reintegrate defense with commercial tech- Biden’s advisors are largely centrists who served in nology and manufacturing could be expected and ac- the Obama administration. These include Tony Blinken, celerated. The Pentagon may again reassert guidance Jake Sullivan, Brian McKeon, Jeffrey Prescott, Juli- on red lines for mergers and acquisitions, too. anne Smith and other former Pentagon officials. Some The Middle East will remain complex, including the policies conceived when Biden was vice president—the potential of significant problems in Iraq and Iran. A “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region, the “third offset strat- Biden administration is likely to distance itself from egy” and a refocus on Europe after the Russian seizure Saudi Arabia, but this may not affect major defensive of Crimea —have been sustained, though relabeled, by weapons sales, unless the Saudis turn to China or Rus- the Trump administration. Other current policies are sia. COVID-19 impacts on poorer countries also will likely to be altered, including “maximum pressure” on create new security challenges that may dilute some Iran, the transactional view of alliances, overall absence of the central tenets of the current National Defense of U.S. leadership on core global issues and movement Strategy and notions of “Great Power” competition. away from current arms control agreements. Biden’s age, 78, may affect his second-term prospects China also will remain a critical defense factor, par- and heightens the importance of running-mate selec- ticularly if a Biden administration leans more heav- tion—the VP candidate might provide another indica- ily on human rights issues, and U.S.-Russia relations tion of how U.S. defense could evolve in the 2020s. c could be more contentious. Under Biden, significant cuts to the Pentagon’s cur- Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital rent plan for fiscal 2022-25 would be unlikely because it Alpha Partners.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY UP FRONT GOING CONCERNS BYRON CALLAN MICHAEL BRUNO

THE 2020 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL will attempt to assert U.S. leadership in ways that could ALONG WITH THE COMMERCIAL said it was pulling its aerostructures assets off the election will be competitive and probably continue to rile China and Russia. However, the admin- air traffic numbers that fuel the Zeitgeist, market, and Boeing walked away from a two-year ne- will be decided by the electoral college istration would have to balance defense needs against mergers and acquisitions in aerospace gotiation over its proposed $4.2 billion acquisition of votes of 6-8 states. Although COVID-19 has dominated post-COVID-19 spending needs, and there is a strong and defense have ground to a halt. But most of Embraer’s commercial aircraft division. thinking about defense, it is a good time for defense likelihood that the magnitude of federal debt will light don’t believe for a minute that dealmakers are sitting Attention now is turning to which other deals could planners, analysts and management to start consider- new fires in Washington over total U.S. federal spending. at home twiddling their thumbs—the indications are fall victim. Jefferies analysts Sheila Kahyaoglu and ing what the administration of presumptive Democratic There could be other factors to weigh for defense. they are working as hard as ever. Greg Konrad list aerostructure giant Spirit AeroSys- nominee Joe Biden could mean for the sector in 2021-24. More debate may occur over U.S. strategic and nu- “There’s not a week passes that we don’t get some tems’ bids for Bombardier’s commercial aerostruc- A Biden presidency and Democratic control of clear forces modernization programs—specifically sort of early warning of people trading out of assets tures assets and the Asco aircraft parts maker. Congress is not likely to be a negative for defense, but the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent and Long- and things like that,” KBR CEO and President Stuart Next, watch for hostile takeovers. Several A&D com- it would introduce some new factors and issues. If Range Standoff Weapon. Artificial intelligence, space Bradie said on the major NASA and Defense Depart- panies in recent weeks have adopted so-called poison Biden wins in Novem- and autonomous sys- ment services provider’s April 29 quarterly earnings pills to try to ward off such proposals. Among them are ber, Democrats could tems have been cham- call. The company will be just as selective as before Spirit, Hexcel, Woodward and AAR. Other recent adop- also regain a majority Change of Guard? pioned in the Trump the pandemic wreaked havoc, “but certainly those op- tees included Maxar Technologies for different reasons. in the Senate and retain What would mean administration, but portunities are there,” he noted. But some corporate boards might welcome an approach. the House majority. Biden for defense their priority may be Finally, prepare for a wave of distressed assets to If that happens, the further elevated in emerge later this year or in early 2021. Private equity 2022 midterm election 2021-24 and beyond. Gathering Kindling investors are scrubbing their portfolios of companies, will be the next major Arms control could Frozen for now, the marker, because mid- come back into sharper bonfire of A&D M&A Transactions, 2012-19 term elections typically focus, as Biden is very A&D consolidation will roar again By Year Announced are seen as a public unlikely to exit the New Disclosed transactions Undisclosed transactions Total enterprise value/pretax earnings verdict on how the START treaty. His ad- In the pre-COVID-19 world, aerospace and 900 12x president is doing. ministration may seek defense (A&D) and government services merg- 11.5x 11.5x 11.5x 750 10.6x 10.8x 10.8x 10x As can be expected other measures to lim- ers and acquisitions (M&A) were expected to 10.1x based on the vast ma- it the risk of crisis and reach near-record levels this year, just off the 8.5x jority of major election counter the potentially 2018-19 peaks of around $132 billion that book- 600 8x campaigns, Biden’s destabilizing effects of ended the most active and expensive decade +14% 450 6x team has not put forth hypersonic weapons, in A&D history. Although that will not be the much hard budget data cyberattacks on criti- case after the novel coronavirus pandemic, at 300 4x or program specifics cal infrastructure and least not in the immediate future, the proverbial AIRMAN 1ST CLASS CARLIN LESLIE/U.S. AIR FORCE Number of Transactions 150 2x yet. Biden’s campaign conflict in space. kindling of a bonfire of M&A is being laid as website under “Defend Our Vital Interests” states: The Pentagon’s interaction with contractors could A&D manufacturers and service providers go 0 0x “We have the strongest military in the world—and change as well. Under Biden, there probably would from record business activity to record cuts. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 as president, Biden will ensure it stays that way. The not be as many senior Pentagon civilian officials who According to A&D M&A advisor Mesirow Biden administration will make the investments neces- formerly worked for contractors as is now the case. Financial, the second half of 2019 was the bus- SOURCE: ALIXPARTNERS sary to equip our forces for the challenges of the next There may be initiatives to shift risk to contractors iest period of dealmaking in the past decade, includ- assessing their cash situations and their potential century, not the last one.” He will also “end forever from the Pentagon and to incentivize development. ing a strong showing from increasingly active privateSource: iarners for creating liquidity, says Eric Bernardini, global wars” in Afghanistan and the Middle East, it states. Efforts to reintegrate defense with commercial tech- equity investors. While 2020 never was expected to co-leader of the AlixPartners aerospace, defense and Biden’s advisors are largely centrists who served in nology and manufacturing could be expected and ac- set records, the expectation was for a different kind aviation practice. the Obama administration. These include Tony Blinken, celerated. The Pentagon may again reassert guidance of robust M&A activity, shifting from megamergers “In the near term, many downmarket suppliers may Jake Sullivan, Brian McKeon, Jeffrey Prescott, Juli- on red lines for mergers and acquisitions, too. such as Raytheon Technologies and L3Harris Tech- find themselves in troubled waters due to both OEM anne Smith and other former Pentagon officials. Some The Middle East will remain complex, including the nologies to supply chain and technology-related con- rate reductions and the collapse of the aftermarket policies conceived when Biden was vice president—the potential of significant problems in Iraq and Iran. A solidation, consultancy AlixPartners notes. driven by COVID-19 demand impacts,” Bernardini’s “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region, the “third offset strat- Biden administration is likely to distance itself from Not anymore: Anecdotal evidence points to a chill- team says. “Ultimately, this may trigger a reconfigu- egy” and a refocus on Europe after the Russian seizure Saudi Arabia, but this may not affect major defensive ing effect on M&A as widespread liquidity concerns, ration of the Tier 2 and Tier 3 supply chain landscape, of Crimea —have been sustained, though relabeled, by weapons sales, unless the Saudis turn to China or Rus- OEM production cuts and shelter-at-home mandates with a need for consolidation and capital injection.” the Trump administration. Other current policies are sia. COVID-19 impacts on poorer countries also will rewrite the industry’s prospects practically overnight. Despite their own troubles, well-funded serial acquir- likely to be altered, including “maximum pressure” on create new security challenges that may dilute some “It’s like asking someone in the middle of a tornado ers and top industry players remain ready to pounce. “I Iran, the transactional view of alliances, overall absence of the central tenets of the current National Defense which direction they are going,” says Greg Van Beuren, don’t want to necessarily be buying off of 2019 comps—I of U.S. leadership on core global issues and movement Strategy and notions of “Great Power” competition. managing director of advisor Houlihan Lokey. “There don’t think that makes a lot of sense,” Honeywell Interna- away from current arms control agreements. Biden’s age, 78, may affect his second-term prospects is really no new credit available for strategic activity tional Chairman, CEO and President Darius Adamczyk China also will remain a critical defense factor, par- and heightens the importance of running-mate selec- like an acquisition. It is primarily being used to shore said on May 1, as he waits to see what becomes available. ticularly if a Biden administration leans more heav- tion—the VP candidate might provide another indica- up balance sheets and see how long this will last.” “But given our balance sheet, which is in great position, ily on human rights issues, and U.S.-Russia relations tion of how U.S. defense could evolve in the 2020s. c Indeed, before M&A can pick up, it may have to fall yes, I think that this is an area which could be an oppor- could be more contentious. apart some more. April brought a trio of cancellations: tunity in the second half of the year,” he continued. Under Biden, significant cuts to the Pentagon’s cur- Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital The merger of suppliers Woodward and Hexcel was “I think the valuations should and will change,” rent plan for fiscal 2022-25 would be unlikely because it Alpha Partners. called off just months after being announced, Senior plc Adamczyk said. “That’s pretty obvious.” c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 11 COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE GRAHAM WARWICK

WAS THE DECISION BY AIRBUS in service. There is a well-documented history of such and Rolls-Royce to end the E-Fan X projects never making it to flight, someone deciding at research program without flying the some point that enough has been learned from ground hybrid-electric demonstrator a sign that testing that there is no need to waste money getting electric propulsion has hit a dead end? Or was it a tap into the air. on the brakes for a technology trend that probably was Rolls saw it happen to a key precursor of the moving a bit too fast anyway? E-Fan X, Aurora Flight Sciences’ XV-24A Lightning- The project to modify a regional jet with a 2-mega- Strike. This was a hybrid-electric, high-speed verti- watt, 3-kilovolt serial hybrid-electric powerplant cer- cal-takeoff-and-landing demonstrator powered by a tainly was the poster child for electric propulsion. That Rolls AE1100. Aurora flew a subscale demonstrator industry giants Airbus and Rolls would take on such a which, after Honeywell hit problems developing the project, supported by European and UK government 1-megawatt generators, enabled DARPA to claim funding, was widely viewed as an endorsement of elec- enough had been achieved to terminate the program. trified aircraft propulsion as the most promising future In announcing that the E-Fan X was ending without direction for the decarbonization of aviation. It still is a the demonstrator flying, Airbus indicated it had tak- promising direction, but it might just take a bit longer en the decision to refocus its research and technology to get there by another route. efforts and “take an even bolder approach to reduce Electric Reset Can electric propulsion survive a setback? When Airbus launched the E-Fan X proj- ect in 2017, it entered territory occupied by startups. New entrants such as Ampaire and Zunum Aero were taking a bottom-up approach by introducing hybrid-electric propulsion first to smaller aircraft, with 11 AIRBUS passengers or fewer; Airbus took aim at the top of the CO2 emissions.” What that approach might be was not regional market and aircraft with up to 100 seats. revealed, but hybrid-electric propulsion remains one That meant tackling the technical challenges of gen- poten tial pathway, and Airbus says it will continue to erating, converting, storing, distributing, controlling mature the technology in its E-Aircraft System Test and consuming electrical power on a megawatt scale, House. at kilovolt levels, in an aircraft able to fly at the speeds Another pathway is hydrogen, which is gaining trac- and altitudes of a regional jet. Airbus brought in the tion in Europe. Airbus says hydrogen propulsion “is expertise of Siemens’ eAircraft unit, which was later equal parts as huge an opportunity as it is a new chal- acquired by Rolls, its other partner on the E-Fan X. lenge.” Here the European giant could again find itself The result was a power train that comprised an in territory that for now is occupied only by startups— AE2100 gas turbine driving a 2.5-megawatt generator such as ZeroAvia, which is developing a hydrogen fuel- “the size of a beer keg” and supplying power to both cell power train for regional aircraft. a 2-metric-ton battery pack and a 2-megawatt electric With the demise of the E-Fan X, leadership in the motor driving the fan from an AE3007 turbofan. This drive for electric propulsion reverts to the startups. was to replace one of the four Honeywell LF507 turbo- These new entrants face their own COVID-19-induced fans powering the Avro RJ testbed chosen for E-Fan X. funding challenge. That may slow them down by a That testbed will now never fly, a victim of cost cuts year or two but is unlikely to derail them as they are amid the COVID-19 crisis, but Rolls plans to complete not targeting a traditional aviation market, one that ground testing of the power-generation system to is struggling to recover. By using electric propulsion demonstrate the technology and capture the lessons. to dramatically reduce the operating cost of aircraft, This study will include the generator, now on test in they are instead aiming to compete with automobiles Trondheim, Norway, as well as the control and ther- to provide regional mobility. mal-management systems developed in the UK and U.S., There is a risk that governments could take their foot respectively. This power generation system “can and will off the pedal when it comes to supporting electric pro- be” used in future hybrid-electric aircraft, says Rolls. pulsion R&D. Instead, they should see it as an opportu- The novel coronavirus pandemic exposed the nity to help the industry as a whole catch up with the E-Fan X’s biggest vulnerability: that it was always des- technology leaders and get ready to move into the fast tined to be only a demonstrator and never a product lane when the time comes. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE THE LAUNCHPAD GRAHAM WARWICK IRENE KLOTZ

WAS THE DECISION BY AIRBUS in service. There is a well-documented history of such IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING RIDE Japan. “It was a logistical nightmare,” Sharaf says. and Rolls-Royce to end the E-Fan X projects never making it to flight, someone deciding at for the United Arab Emirates’ debut Mars Project managers cut short the spacecraft’s testing research program without flying the some point that enough has been learned from ground mission—and it hasn’t even launched yet. in Dubai to accommodate additional time needed in hybrid-electric demonstrator a sign that testing that there is no need to waste money getting The engineering and science hurdles were not sur- Japan for technicians to fulfill two-week quarantine electric propulsion has hit a dead end? Or was it a tap into the air. prising. After all, the UAE’s previous experience build- requirements before being able to work. That was on the brakes for a technology trend that probably was Rolls saw it happen to a key precursor of the ing spacecraft consisted of a single small Earth-obser- preceded by two-week quarantines for U.S. and other moving a bit too fast anyway? E-Fan X, Aurora Flight Sciences’ XV-24A Lightning- vation satellite, DubaiSat-2, launched in 2013. international travelers arriving in Dubai to assist with The project to modify a regional jet with a 2-mega- Strike. This was a hybrid-electric, high-speed verti- To learn the trade, the Mohammed bin Rashid Space spacecraft assembly and testing. watt, 3-kilovolt serial hybrid-electric powerplant cer- cal-takeoff-and-landing demonstrator powered by a Centre, a government of Dubai entity, dispatched “Because of the COVID-19 situation, we had to expe- tainly was the poster child for electric propulsion. That Rolls AE1100. Aurora flew a subscale demonstrator teams of engineers and scientists to South Korea’s dite the activities in Dubai to focus only on the critical industry giants Airbus and Rolls would take on such a which, after Honeywell hit problems developing the Satrec Initiative to build a precursor spacecraft as a testing and remove the additional testing we wanted project, supported by European and UK government 1-megawatt generators, enabled DARPA to claim teaching tool. DubaiSat-1 to do,” Sharaf says. “The funding, was widely viewed as an endorsement of elec- enough had been achieved to terminate the program. launched in 2009. decision was made early trified aircraft propulsion as the most promising future In announcing that the E-Fan X was ending without The next initiative, an- Pinning Hopes on Mars on that basically we need direction for the decarbonization of aviation. It still is a the demonstrator flying, Airbus indicated it had tak- nounced in 2014, was the to ship the spacecraft as promising direction, but it might just take a bit longer en the decision to refocus its research and technology Emirates Mars Mission Pandemic creates logistics nightmare for UAE soon as possible to the to get there by another route. efforts and “take an even bolder approach to reduce (EMM), with the goal of launch site, given the re- reaching Mars in time to strictions that came up mark the 50th anniver- with regards to traveling sary of the founding of the and having teams get to Electric Reset UAE in 2021. That meant the launch site in time. Can electric propulsion launching during a three- “We asked our col- survive a setback? week window that opens leagues in the U.S. to send in mid-July when Earth some team members to When Airbus launched the E-Fan X proj- and Mars are favorably the UAE so they could go ect in 2017, it entered territory occupied by aligned for interplanetary into our quarantine for startups. New entrants such as Ampaire flight, an opportunity that 14 days,” Sharaf says. “In and Zunum Aero were taking a bottom-up arises every 26 months. the meantime, the team approach by introducing hybrid-electric “We had only six years based in Dubai was pre- propulsion first to smaller aircraft, with 11 AIRBUS to develop the mission,” paring the spacecraft for passengers or fewer; Airbus took aim at the top of the CO emissions.” What that approach might be was not says EMM Project Di- shipment. Once that team, 2 MOHAMMED BIN RASHID SPACE CENTRE regional market and aircraft with up to 100 seats. revealed, but hybrid-electric propulsion remains one rector Omran Sharaf. which was in quarantine, That meant tackling the technical challenges of gen- poten tial pathway, and Airbus says it will continue to “You’re talking about a nation that didn’t have capa- got out, the other team that was working in Dubai was erating, converting, storing, distributing, controlling mature the technology in its E-Aircraft System Test bility at that point and experience building outer-space sent to Japan, and they went into quarantine.” and consuming electrical power on a megawatt scale, House. exploration missions. . . . We had to come up with That team’s quarantine was timed to end when Hope at kilovolt levels, in an aircraft able to fly at the speeds Another pathway is hydrogen, which is gaining trac- means and ways in six years, which is quite tight.” arrived in Japan so it could take over launch prepara- and altitudes of a regional jet. Airbus brought in the tion in Europe. Airbus says hydrogen propulsion “is Unlike other space exploration initiatives, the over- tions from the group that traveled with the spacecraft. expertise of Siemens’ eAircraft unit, which was later equal parts as huge an opportunity as it is a new chal- riding goal of the EMM, also known as Hope, is not The spacecraft escorts then quarantined for two acquired by Rolls, its other partner on the E-Fan X. lenge.” Here the European giant could again find itself primarily science but to serve as a catalyst to develop weeks while their colleagues picked up prelaunch pro- The result was a power train that comprised an in territory that for now is occupied only by startups— the country’s science and technology sector, particu- cessing at Japan’s Tanegashima Space Center. AE2100 gas turbine driving a 2.5-megawatt generator such as ZeroAvia, which is developing a hydrogen fuel- larly among Emirati youth. “We were able to get the critical team into “the size of a beer keg” and supplying power to both cell power train for regional aircraft. “It’s an example of collaboration and an example of Japan . . . and we managed to get all the approvals [to a 2-metric-ton battery pack and a 2-megawatt electric With the demise of the E-Fan X, leadership in the coexistence, in which we have the team in the UAE fly] because UAE airports are closed. We were able motor driving the fan from an AE3007 turbofan. This drive for electric propulsion reverts to the startups. working with partners in different parts of the world,” to get some exemptions from the UAE government was to replace one of the four Honeywell LF507 turbo- These new entrants face their own COVID-19-induced Sharaf says. “All this has to be done through novel and and also from the Japanese government,” which has fans powering the Avro RJ testbed chosen for E-Fan X. funding challenge. That may slow them down by a unique science that serves the international science imposed extra visa requirements for UAE and U.S. That testbed will now never fly, a victim of cost cuts year or two but is unlikely to derail them as they are community.” citizens, Sharaf says. amid the COVID-19 crisis, but Rolls plans to complete not targeting a traditional aviation market, one that Hope is outfitted with three science instruments for NASA has embarked on a similar, though less compli- ground testing of the power-generation system to is struggling to recover. By using electric propulsion detailed studies of the Martian atmosphere. The UAE cated, endeavor in an effort to meet the July interplan- demonstrate the technology and capture the lessons. to dramatically reduce the operating cost of aircraft, partnered with the University of Colorado at Boulder, etary launch window for its Mars 2020 rover mission. This study will include the generator, now on test in they are instead aiming to compete with automobiles Arizona State University and the University of Califor- China also is aiming to fly an orbiter and a rover to Mars Trondheim, Norway, as well as the control and ther- to provide regional mobility. nia at Berkeley in developing the science instruments. this summer. Europe’s planned ExoMars rover mission, mal-management systems developed in the UK and U.S., There is a risk that governments could take their foot Heading into 2020, the project was in good shape, but already challenged to complete parachute testing be- respectively. This power generation system “can and will off the pedal when it comes to supporting electric pro- then the COVID-19 pandemic struck. International trav- fore the pandemic struck, will miss its 2020 launch slot. be” used in future hybrid-electric aircraft, says Rolls. pulsion R&D. Instead, they should see it as an opportu- el bans and workplace shutdowns stemming from efforts Hope is not out of the woods yet. “COVID-19 is still The novel coronavirus pandemic exposed the nity to help the industry as a whole catch up with the to contain the novel coronavirus complicated logistics around, and there’s always that risk that things might E-Fan X’s biggest vulnerability: that it was always des- technology leaders and get ready to move into the fast to get engineering and science teams from the U.S. and get postponed,” Sharaf says. “I’m quite anxious about tined to be only a demonstrator and never a product lane when the time comes. c the UAE to accompany the probe to its launch site in it.” Hope’s launch opportunity opens July 14. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 13 SPACE > Chinese manned space program’s new phase p. 18 LUNAR LANDERS > NASA SETS UP THREE-WAY RACE FOR CREWED MOON LANDING

> BLUE ORIGIN WINS LION’S SHARE OF $967 MILLION

A team headed by Blue Origin is developing a three-part lunar lander that draws from the Orion and Cygnus programs.

BE ORIIN Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral edging its bets in hopes of meeting the Trump admin- strategically draws upon the unique istration’s goal of landing astronauts on the Moon in capabilities of each team member [and] relies upon heritage hardware 2024, NASA will spend nearly $1 billion over the next and systems, provides confi dence that 10 months helping teams led by Blue Origin, Dynetics the team can complete the design, H development, test and evaluation of and SpaceX parlay their commercially developed technologies an HLS that meets NASA’s require- into transportation systems for lunar-surface sorties. ments for the 2024 demonstration mis- sion,” NASA Associate Administrator “One thing we were striving for of heritage aerospace companies in- Stephen Jurczyk, who served as the with these solicitations and announce- cluding Lockheed Martin, Northrop HLS source selection authority, wrote ments is to see what U.S. industry Grumman and Draper. in an April 28 Source Selection State- could bring us with respect to inno- Blue Origin proposed a three-stage ment posted on the agency’s website . vation, and boy did they deliver,” says HLS that includes: a descent element Privately owned Blue Origin, found- Lisa Watson-Morgan, Human Landing powered by the company’s BE-7 cryo- ed and funded by Amazon CEO Je‹ System (HLS) program manager at genic engines , an ascent element pro- Bezos, has been quietly lobbying NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center vided by Lockheed and based on the NASA for three years to support com- in Huntsville, Alabama. Orion deep-space capsules it is man- mercial lunar transportation services, “We have three notably different ufacturing for NASA under a related an idea developed as part of the com- architectures—a one-stage, a two- program, and a transfer element built pany’s Blue Moon program. stage, and a three-stage architec- by Northrop and based on its Cygnus The procurement panel that vetted ture— [which] achieves the innovation spacecraft used for International the HLS proposals liked Blue Origin’s and the dissimilar redundancy of ap- Space Station cargo runs. “human-centric approach” for its ren- proaches we wanted,” she says. Draper will provide cross-cutting dezvous, proximity operations, dock- The lion’s share of $967 million that support in guidance, navigation and ing and undocking systems. “Blue NASA plans to spend on HLS o‹ er- control and will also provide avionics Origin’s unique design . . . will reduce ings through February 2021 will go and software systems. crew workload during these critical to Blue Origin, which heads a team “This teaming approach, which operations and improve safety by al-

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE > Chinese manned space program’s new phase p. 18 Major NASA Programs Amount of Cost Overrun Latest Cost Estimate Schedule Delay (U.S. $ billion) (U.S. $ billion) (months) lowing the crew to monitor Orion Crew Capsule $0.9 $12.2 24 overall vehicle performance,” Mars 2020 0.4 2.7 0 Jurczyk wrote. Space Launch System 1.7 11.4 28 LUNAR LANDERS Blue Origin’s HLS design James Webb Space Telescope 4.4 9.7 81 also exceeds NASA’s baseline Source: Government Accountability Office NASA SETS UP THREE-WAY RACE requirement for initial habi- While NASA still aims to land astronauts on > tation capability and landing points in the mission. The proposal FOR CREWED MOON LANDING the Moon in 2024, it is struggling to contain accuracy, offering benefits the cost of several major programs. exceeds NASA’s baseline requirements for the initial 2024 mission for how much mass the lander can car- BLUE ORIGIN WINS LION’S and missions to follow “in a manner the credibility of its approach, the ry to the lunar surface, the number of > that is feasible and does not compro- Source Selection Statement said. spacewalks it can support and the vehi- SHARE OF $967 MILLION mise other elements of Blue Origin’s Blue Origin was awarded a $579 cle’s operational lifetime in lunar orbit. technical approach,” he added. million fixed-price contract under the NASA also likes that Dynetics’ crew NASA also liked that the company’s solicitation, which is more than half of cabin sits low to the lunar surface, plan includes an uncrewed flight test the $967 million set aside in NASA’s fis- enabling a short and safer climb for in 2023 to the same landing site se - cal 2020 budget for HLS development. astronauts entering and exiting the lected for crewed landing a year later, Blue dropped its price by more vehicle. “This design reduces the risk significantly reducing schedule and than $300 million for the 10-month of crew injury due to falls and simpli- technical risk, NASA said. base performance period following fies the offloading and loading of equip- The biggest technical concern with negotiations with NASA, the Source ment required for EVA [extravehicular Blue Origin’s HLS is its power and Selection Statement noted. activity] missions,” Jurczyk wrote. propulsion system, which includes “I find it similarly noteworthy “multiple, relatively low technology- DYNETICS PLUS-25 that Dynetics’ HLS design overall is readiness-level systems that will be Of NASA’s three HLS partners, Dynet- crew-centric and likely to have a pos- challenging to manufacture, integrate ics, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lei- itive impact on successful contract and test,” Jurczyk wrote. The design dos, ranked highest in the agency’s performance as a result,” he added. introduces “significant risk to the pro- technical and management assess- For example, Dynetics has proposed A team headed by Blue Origin gram,” he added. ments of the proposal, receiving rank- optimal locations for its flight controls is developing a three-part lunar “This design can only come to fru- ings of “very good” in both categories. and windows to enable effective crew lander that draws from the ition as a result of a very significant Blue Origin’s technical rating was “ac- visibility during landing and on the Orion and Cygnus programs. amount of development work that ceptable” and its management “very lunar surface and during proximity, must proceed precisely according to good,” while SpaceX received “accept- docking and undocking operations. BE ORIIN Blue Origin’s plan, including occur- able” ratings in both categories. Other notable features include a pre- Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral ring on what appears to be an aggres- Dynetics’ concept is to build a single dictable translation path and a dust sive timeline,” he added. element for lunar ascent and descent barrier, he wrote. edging its bets in hopes of meeting the Trump admin- strategically draws upon the unique Still, the design is well-thought-out capabilities, coupled with multiple Another technical strength is istration’s goal of landing astronauts on the Moon in capabilities of each team member and Blue Origin has conducted signif- modular propellant vehicles preposi- Dynetics’ integrated horizontal drop [and] relies upon heritage hardware icant system modeling that increases tioned to fuel the engines at different tank descent/ascent element archi- 2024, NASA will spend nearly $1 billion over the next and systems, provides confi dence that 10 months helping teams led by Blue Origin, Dynetics the team can complete the design, H development, test and evaluation of and SpaceX parlay their commercially developed technologies Dynetics is subcontracting an HLS that meets NASA’s require- with 25 mostly small- and into transportation systems for lunar-surface sorties. ments for the 2024 demonstration mis- medium-size companies for sion,” NASA Associate Administrator “One thing we were striving for of heritage aerospace companies in- Stephen Jurczyk, who served as the its lunar landing system. with these solicitations and announce- cluding Lockheed Martin, Northrop HLS source selection authority, wrote ments is to see what U.S. industry Grumman and Draper. in an April 28 Source Selection State- could bring us with respect to inno- Blue Origin proposed a three-stage ment posted on the agency’s website . vation, and boy did they deliver,” says HLS that includes: a descent element Privately owned Blue Origin, found- Lisa Watson-Morgan, Human Landing powered by the company’s BE-7 cryo- ed and funded by Amazon CEO Je‹ System (HLS) program manager at genic engines , an ascent element pro- Bezos, has been quietly lobbying NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center vided by Lockheed and based on the NASA for three years to support com- in Huntsville, Alabama. Orion deep-space capsules it is man- mercial lunar transportation services, “We have three notably different ufacturing for NASA under a related an idea developed as part of the com- architectures—a one-stage, a two- program, and a transfer element built pany’s Blue Moon program. stage, and a three-stage architec- by Northrop and based on its Cygnus The procurement panel that vetted ture— [which] achieves the innovation spacecraft used for International the HLS proposals liked Blue Origin’s and the dissimilar redundancy of ap- Space Station cargo runs. “human-centric approach” for its ren- proaches we wanted,” she says. Draper will provide cross-cutting dezvous, proximity operations, dock- The lion’s share of $967 million that support in guidance, navigation and ing and undocking systems. “Blue

NASA plans to spend on HLS o‹ er- control and will also provide avionics Origin’s unique design . . . will reduce DYNETICS ings through February 2021 will go and software systems. crew workload during these critical to Blue Origin, which heads a team “This teaming approach, which operations and improve safety by al-

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 15 SPACE

tecture, which requires just two pri- research, scientific and commercial development effort, specifically to flesh mary development efforts: a complex hardware to the Moon or lunar orbit. out a Starship variant that would ferry one for the crewed spacecraft and a NASA views Dynetics’ subcontract- astronauts to and from lunar orbit to moderately complex effort for the fuel ing structure, primarily with small- and the surface of the Moon. element, NASA said. medium-size businesses, as another NASA plans to use its own Space “This architecture reduces the num- strength. “This commitment . . . will Launch System (SLS) rocket, still in ber of highly complex element devel- meaningfully contribute to the contin- development, and an Orion capsule opments to one, and thus inherently ued development of the small business to fly the crew to lunar orbit, where minimizes the number of required in- technology base, and has the potential they will transfer to an HLS either via terfaces and verification steps. Overall, to reduce risk due to increased access the planned Gateway or, more likely, this design choice by Dynetics will to diverse technical solutions and ca- directly from the Orion. meaningfully reduce the amount of time pabilities within the small business “The Gateway is critically import- needed for design, development, test community,” Jurczyk wrote. ant for what NASA is trying to and evaluation of its HLS,” NASA said. Dynetics was awarded $253 million achieve . . . to make the Artemis pro- Like Blue Origin, the Dynetics for initial design and development of its gram sustainable,” says NASA Admin- team will be challenged in the power HLS. The Huntsville-based company istrator Jim Bridenstine, referring to and propulsion system arena, which will serve as prime contractor and sys- NASA’s deep-space human explora- “introduces an appreciable risk of un- tem integrator for a team that includes: tion program. “We would like to see successful contract performance from Thales Alenia Space, Draper, Sierra private companies build landers that both a technical and development Nevada Corp., Oceaneering Interna- can go back and forth to the surface of schedule standpoint,” Jurczyk wrote. tional, Paragon Space Development, the Moon, over and over and over again “This system is complex and re - United Launch Alliance (ULA), Dy- with reusable landers. That’s how we lies upon technologies that are at namic Concepts, Maxar Technologies, drive down cost and increase access. . . . relatively low maturity levels or that Creare, Craig Technologies, L3Harris The Gateway also is important for ma- have yet to be developed for Dynetics’ Technologies, ILC Dover, Sierra Lobo, neuverability . . . to get to the poles proposed application, but would need JBS Solutions, All Points, Cepeda to be developed at an unprecedented Systems & Software Analysis, Victory pace,” he said. Solutions, Astrobotic Technology, ATA SpaceX’s Starship has won “Many of its individual subsystems Engineering, Ecliptic Enterprises, Bio- its first big U.S. government will have to be developed at a speed netics, APT Research, Space Explora- development contract. that does not align with historical ex- tion Engineering, Osare Space Consult- perience for the development of anal- ing Group and Tuskegee University. ogous systems that perform similar functions,” he added. STARSHIP ON THE RADAR Though risky, the design concept The last time SpaceX bid Starship thoroughly addresses NASA’s stated to address U.S. government launch requirements for propellant consid- technology development, the Air erations, including storability, safety, Force turned it down, saying the maintainability and future adaptation company’s planned fully reusable, to an in-space refueling capability. two-stage, deep space transport was If successfully developed and im- riskier than other heavy-lift launch op- plemented, the proposed propellant tions presented by ULA, Blue Origin storage solution will “result in a more and Northrop Grumman. In response mass-efficient system, which will in to a follow-on solicitation for launch turn increase overall performance services, currently under evaluation, margin for Dynetics’ HLS capability. SpaceX dropped Starship from its of- Thus, while I agree that Dynetics’ pow- fering, focusing instead on its proven er and propulsion system overall pres- Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters. ents substantial technical and schedule But Starship is far from forgotten. risk, it is also the case that its approach SpaceX founder, CEO and chief engi- is exactly the kind of innovative solu- neer Elon Musk has been personally tion that NASA sought through the overseeing prototype construction HLS solicitation,” Jurczyk wrote. and testing near Boca Chica Beach, Dynetics also proposed a novel Texas, with an eye on achieving an commercial approach, addressing a orbital flight test of the second stage goal of NASA’s HLS program to set before year-end. the stage for the agency to become one The effort has been bankrolled by customer among many for lunar flight SpaceX itself, along with a sizable services. Two of the 25 subcontractors deposit by Japanese billionaire en- on Dynetics’ team are NASA Com- trepreneur Yusaku Maezawa, who in mercial Lunar Payload Services con- 2018 chartered a Starship mission for tractors focused on providing flight a flight around the Moon. services for experiments and other NASA is adding $135 million to the

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE tecture, which requires just two pri- research, scientific and commercial development effort, specifically to flesh and equatorial regions of the Moon. lant storage Starship would park in Super Heavy Booster—and requires mary development efforts: a complex hardware to the Moon or lunar orbit. out a Starship variant that would ferry “It is also important to note that we low Earth orbit and be fueled by tank- numerous, highly complex launch, one for the crewed spacecraft and a NASA views Dynetics’ subcontract- astronauts to and from lunar orbit to have the priority to get to the Moon er Starships. A human-rated Starship rendezvous and fueling operations, moderately complex effort for the fuel ing structure, primarily with small- and the surface of the Moon. by 2024 and . . . we believe that does would launch to the storage unit in which all must succeed in quick suc- element, NASA said. medium-size businesses, as another NASA plans to use its own Space not require the Gateway,” Bridenstine Earth orbit, fuel up and continue to cession in order to successfully exe- “This architecture reduces the num- strength. “This commitment . . . will Launch System (SLS) rocket, still in adds. “In fact, I would go as far as to lunar orbit. cute on its approach,” Jurczyk said. ber of highly complex element devel- meaningfully contribute to the contin- development, and an Orion capsule say that it’s not likely that we will use Musk says SpaceX will try to “These development and operation- opments to one, and thus inherently ued development of the small business to fly the crew to lunar orbit, where the Gateway for the 2024 mission.” land the Starship on the Moon with al risks, in the aggregate, threaten the minimizes the number of required in- technology base, and has the potential they will transfer to an HLS either via The full Starship system, designed enough propellant to return to Earth, schedule viability of a successful 2024 terfaces and verification steps. Overall, to reduce risk due to increased access the planned Gateway or, more likely, with an initial lift capacity of more than a demonstration that would further demonstration mission,” he added. this design choice by Dynetics will to diverse technical solutions and ca- directly from the Orion. 220,000 lb. (100,000 kg) into orbit, could nibble away the technological high Any problems, however, may crop meaningfully reduce the amount of time pabilities within the small business “The Gateway is critically import- provide an alternative to NASA’s SLS, ground of the SLS-Orion architecture. up early, thanks to SpaceX’s empha- needed for design, development, test community,” Jurczyk wrote. ant for what NASA is trying to but Bridenstine and his leadership team As an HLS, NASA likes Starship’s sis on early and numerous ground and evaluation of its HLS,” NASA said. Dynetics was awarded $253 million achieve . . . to make the Artemis pro- are clear that transporting astronauts dual airlocks, each capable of support- and flight demonstrations, which will Like Blue Origin, the Dynetics for initial design and development of its gram sustainable,” says NASA Admin- for a 2024 Moon landing is complete- ing two astronauts to simultaneously reduce schedule and technical risk. team will be challenged in the power HLS. The Huntsville-based company istrator Jim Bridenstine, referring to ly dependent on the SLS and Orion. don and doff EVA suits, with the ability “Because the base Starship design and propulsion system arena, which will serve as prime contractor and sys- NASA’s deep-space human explora- “That’s the only rocket that is going to to support four suited crewmembers serves both HLS and SpaceX’s com- “introduces an appreciable risk of un- tem integrator for a team that includes: tion program. “We would like to see be human-rated by 2024 that will take if needed. Another strength of its pro- mercial launch purposes, SpaceX successful contract performance from Thales Alenia Space, Draper, Sierra private companies build landers that humans to the Moon,” Bridenstine says. posal is the company’s plan to leverage asserts that many of its HLS systems both a technical and development Nevada Corp., Oceaneering Interna- can go back and forth to the surface of The HLS, along with Gateway com- HLS development from the extensive will be demonstrated many times on schedule standpoint,” Jurczyk wrote. tional, Paragon Space Development, the Moon, over and over and over again ponents, will likely fly on commercial heritage hardware and software used operational missions prior to the 2024 “This system is complex and re - United Launch Alliance (ULA), Dy- with reusable landers. That’s how we rockets. on existing flight programs, including HLS mission,” Jurczyk wrote. lies upon technologies that are at namic Concepts, Maxar Technologies, drive down cost and increase access. . . . SpaceX’s HLS concept is to launch cargo and crew Dragon capsules and Examples include a low-Earth relatively low maturity levels or that Creare, Craig Technologies, L3Harris The Gateway also is important for ma- several Starships, each tailored for a Falcon 9 rockets. orbital flight of the Starship with a have yet to be developed for Dynetics’ Technologies, ILC Dover, Sierra Lobo, neuverability . . . to get to the poles specific part of the mission. A propel- “This methodology reduces tech- demonstration of SpaceX’s Super proposed application, but would need JBS Solutions, All Points, Cepeda nical, schedule and safety risk, as Heavy launch vehicle, a reflight of the to be developed at an unprecedented Systems & Software Analysis, Victory well as bolsters SpaceX’s credibility Starship, a long-duration orbital flight, pace,” he said. Solutions, Astrobotic Technology, ATA SpaceX’s Starship has won for meeting the solicitation’s primary a flight beyond low Earth orbit and a “Many of its individual subsystems Engineering, Ecliptic Enterprises, Bio- its first big U.S. government objective of rapid HLS development lunar landing demonstration mission will have to be developed at a speed netics, APT Research, Space Explora- development contract. to support a 2024 demonstration mis- scheduled for 2022. that does not align with historical ex- tion Engineering, Osare Space Consult- sion,” NASA wrote. “This comprehensive demonstra- perience for the development of anal- ing Group and Tuskegee University. The HLS Starship plan, however, tion plan will meaningfully facilitate ogous systems that perform similar includes a proposed propulsion sys- the maturation of critical technolo- functions,” he added. STARSHIP ON THE RADAR tem that is complex and composed of gies and demonstrably reduce sched- Though risky, the design concept The last time SpaceX bid Starship likewise complex individual subsys- ule and technical risk, thereby greatly thoroughly addresses NASA’s stated to address U.S. government launch tems—such as the reaction control enhancing the potential for successful requirements for propellant consid- technology development, the Air system—that have yet to be devel- contract performance,” NASA said. erations, including storability, safety, Force turned it down, saying the oped, tested and certified, with little NASA plans to embed personnel— maintainability and future adaptation company’s planned fully reusable, schedule margin to accommodate virtually for now, due to ongoing clo- to an in-space refueling capability. two-stage, deep space transport was delays, the agency added. sures from the coronavirus COVID-19 If successfully developed and im- riskier than other heavy-lift launch op- NASA also found significant risk as- crisis—with the companies for three plemented, the proposed propellant tions presented by ULA, Blue Origin sociated with successful development months to deepen its understanding storage solution will “result in a more and Northrop Grumman. In response of SpaceX’s integrated propulsion of how the teams plan to certify their mass-efficient system, which will in to a follow-on solicitation for launch system for HLS given the proposed systems for human spaceflight. turn increase overall performance services, currently under evaluation, approach for integrating and testing “This first base period is so critical,” margin for Dynetics’ HLS capability. SpaceX dropped Starship from its of- the individual elements of the system. says Douglas Loverro, NASA associ- Thus, while I agree that Dynetics’ pow- fering, focusing instead on its proven “SpaceX has proposed a robust ate administrator for human explora- er and propulsion system overall pres- Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters. and aggressive plan for early sys- tion and operations. “We have got to ents substantial technical and schedule But Starship is far from forgotten. tems demonstrations, which lends make sure we have the requirements risk, it is also the case that its approach SpaceX founder, CEO and chief engi- credibility to its proposed execution, for the system right. An extra month is exactly the kind of innovative solu- neer Elon Musk has been personally [but] this plan does not adequately that we take in the very beginning . . . tion that NASA sought through the overseeing prototype construction address the risk of [a] potential delay will save us a year on the back end of HLS solicitation,” Jurczyk wrote. and testing near Boca Chica Beach, in development, as well as [a] concom- having to change things.” Dynetics also proposed a novel Texas, with an eye on achieving an itant delay to SpaceX’s demonstration In addition to bids by Blue Origin, commercial approach, addressing a orbital flight test of the second stage mission,” Jurczyk wrote. Dynetics and SpaceX for its second goal of NASA’s HLS program to set before year-end. SpaceX’s overall architecture and Next Space Technologies for Explo- the stage for the agency to become one The effort has been bankrolled by concept of operations pose another ration Partnerships Broad Agency customer among many for lunar flight SpaceX itself, along with a sizable challenge. “Similar to the risks pre- Announcement, NASA reviewed and services. Two of the 25 subcontractors deposit by Japanese billionaire en- sented by SpaceX’s propulsion sys- eliminated proposals by Boeing and on Dynetics’ team are NASA Com- trepreneur Yusaku Maezawa, who in tem, this aspect of SpaceX’s proposal Vivace. During the 10-month contracts, mercial Lunar Payload Services con- 2018 chartered a Starship mission for presents other development schedule NASA will evaluate which of the HLS tractors focused on providing flight a flight around the Moon. SPACEX challenges—principally, those associ- contractors will move on to perform services for experiments and other NASA is adding $135 million to the ated with its Starship variants and demonstration missions. c

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Launch Opens Chinese The space station is now due for completion around 2022. The core module is already at the Wenchang space base. Space Station Phase The manned space program has been following a scheme outlined in 1992. The first spacecraft of the original design was test-flown in 1999 and first took an astronaut to orbit in > A 2017 LAUNCHER FAILURE THREW THE STATION the Shenzhou 5 mission of 2003. A second manned flight, in CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE AWRY 2005, wrapped up the first phase, demonstrating an ability MARS AND MOON MISSIONS CAN PROCEED NOW to get people into orbit. The second phase, lasting until the > manned Shenzhou 11 mission of October 2016, verified more advanced techniques, such as docking and spacewalking. Bradley Perrett Beijing The 3.5-year flight hiatus followed. And even now it is not clear when the next manned mission will occur, presumably hina is moving toward completing its space station in using the new spacecraft. Shenzhou spacecraft were sent to about two years, following a first launch of the facili- orbit four times before their first manned flight. Cty’s associated manned spacecraft by the new rocket The launch on May 5 followed rigorous quality checks that the project needs. The launch opens the manned space prompted by failures of a Long March 7A in March and a Long program’s third phase, 28 years after it was sketched out. March 3B in April. The Long March 7A flight was the first It also ends a 3.5-year mission gap that resulted, at least in for that version, which has a third stage. The flop also raised part, from a launcher failure in 2017. Another launcher fail- questions about the reliability of the original, two-stage ver- ure this March seems less likely to affect progress, however. sion, simply called the Long March 7; this is the launcher for

Following the successful BRADLEY PERRETT/AW&ST the manned space program’s launch of the new space - cargo-delivery spacecraft, craft by a Long March 5B the 13-metric-ton Tianzhou, on May 5, China confirmed which is also a tanker. plans to send probes to Still, the Long March 7 Mars and the Moon this will not need to perform year using another version a resupply mission to the of the launcher type. For space station until the facil- the Mars mission, the state- ity is in orbit, so engineers ment dispelled doubts that have years to sort out what any COVID-19 disruption is wrong. A Long March 3B, could push the shot beyond a of long- established design, July-August launch window. failed in April because of The new spacecraft, a fault in its third stage— which has not been named, which happens to be the is designed to carry six or third-stage module used by seven people and can be the Long March 7A. used for freight. Beyond The Mars mission will serving the space station, proceed in the second half it is also intended for deep of the year, says Xinhua. space missions, includ- The first Long March 5B lofted the new manned spacecraft This must mean it will ing those to the Moon. Its to orbit from the Wenchang base on Hainan. happen between July 17 reentry capsule is reusable. and Aug. 5—a launch win- Also on the ride to low Earth orbit (LEO) was a reus- dow that is determined by the relative positions of the Earth able cargo reentry capsule of a “flexible inflatable type,” and Mars. NASA’s Perseverance rover and the United Arab according to the Xinhua News Agency. This appears to Emirates’ Hope orbiter are also due to go to Mars then. mean that the metal capsule has an inflatable, drag-induc- Space scientist Ouyang Ziyuan, considered the founder ing device similar to those that NASA is developing under of the Chinese lunar exploration program, said in July 2019 the Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator project. that China’s Mars mission would be launched in July 2020. Both payloads were test items. No one was aboard. The probe is to comprise an orbiter, lander and rover. A The manned spacecraft’s mass is 21.6 metric tons; that of second Mars mission is planned for around 2028, with the the core module of the space station is 22.5 metric tons. So aim of bringing a sample from the surface back to Earth. China must use the Long March 5, which entered service in The Moon mission will be Chang’e 5, intended to bring 2016 as the country’s most powerful space launcher, to get back samples. This mission is running three years later them to orbit. The Long March 5B, lacking the second stage of than planned three years ago. Before the Long March 5 the type’s original version, is designed specifically for the job: flight failure then, Chang’e 5 was scheduled for late 2017; its payload to LEO is “more than 22 metric tons,” Xinhua says. three new targets followed, the latest being some time in The 2017 failure of the Long March 5’s second flight 2020. Now it is “before the end” of 2020. therefore threw awry the schedule for the manned space The lunar mission has evidently not enjoyed the highest program and indeed those for sending a probe to Mars and priority as officials have reshuffled missions for the Long the next one to the Moon, both of which also required the March 5. big launcher. It returned to flight in December 2019, thus The 2020 Mars and Moon missions will use the launcher the resumption of activity. in its two-stage version. c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

Launch Opens Chinese The space station is now due for completion around 2022. The core module is already at the Wenchang space base. Space Station Phase The manned space program has been following a scheme outlined in 1992. The first spacecraft of the original design September 1-3, 2020 was test-flown in 1999 and first took an astronaut to orbit in > A 2017 LAUNCHER FAILURE THREW THE STATION the Shenzhou 5 mission of 2003. A second manned flight, in Dallas, TX CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE AWRY 2005, wrapped up the first phase, demonstrating an ability MARS AND MOON MISSIONS CAN PROCEED NOW to get people into orbit. The second phase, lasting until the > manned Shenzhou 11 mission of October 2016, verified more advanced techniques, such as docking and spacewalking. #MROAM | Bradley Perrett Beijing The 3.5-year flight hiatus followed. And even now it is not clear when the next manned mission will occur, presumably hina is moving toward completing its space station in using the new spacecraft. Shenzhou spacecraft were sent to about two years, following a first launch of the facili- orbit four times before their first manned flight. Cty’s associated manned spacecraft by the new rocket The launch on May 5 followed rigorous quality checks that the project needs. The launch opens the manned space prompted by failures of a Long March 7A in March and a Long program’s third phase, 28 years after it was sketched out. March 3B in April. The Long March 7A flight was the first It also ends a 3.5-year mission gap that resulted, at least in for that version, which has a third stage. The flop also raised part, from a launcher failure in 2017. Another launcher fail- questions about the reliability of the original, two-stage ver- MRO Americas to Address ure this March seems less likely to affect progress, however. sion, simply called the Long March 7; this is the launcher for

Following the successful BRADLEY PERRETT/AW&ST the manned space program’s launch of the new space - cargo-delivery spacecraft, craft by a Long March 5B the 13-metric-ton Tianzhou, Moving Forward on May 5, China confirmed which is also a tanker. plans to send probes to Still, the Long March 7 Mars and the Moon this will not need to perform • Industry in Crisis: How to build resiliency in your business in the year using another version a resupply mission to the of the launcher type. For space station until the facil- midst of a global pandemic. the Mars mission, the state- ity is in orbit, so engineers ment dispelled doubts that have years to sort out what • Navigating the World of Mergers & Acquisitions and any COVID-19 disruption is wrong. A Long March 3B, Industry Consolidation could push the shot beyond a of long- established design, July-August launch window. failed in April because of • All Hands on Deck: What can the industry realistically expect in the The new spacecraft, a fault in its third stage— coming days and what role will MROs, OEMs, fuel companies, and which has not been named, which happens to be the is designed to carry six or third-stage module used by fi nancial institutions play in helping to keep US airlines in business? seven people and can be the Long March 7A. used for freight. Beyond The Mars mission will serving the space station, proceed in the second half it is also intended for deep of the year, says Xinhua. Keynote Speakers space missions, includ- The first Long March 5B lofted the new manned spacecraft This must mean it will ing those to the Moon. Its to orbit from the Wenchang base on Hainan. happen between July 17 reentry capsule is reusable. and Aug. 5—a launch win- Also on the ride to low Earth orbit (LEO) was a reus- dow that is determined by the relative positions of the Earth able cargo reentry capsule of a “flexible inflatable type,” and Mars. NASA’s Perseverance rover and the United Arab according to the Xinhua News Agency. This appears to Emirates’ Hope orbiter are also due to go to Mars then. mean that the metal capsule has an inflatable, drag-induc- Space scientist Ouyang Ziyuan, considered the founder ing device similar to those that NASA is developing under of the Chinese lunar exploration program, said in July 2019 the Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator project. that China’s Mars mission would be launched in July 2020. Both payloads were test items. No one was aboard. The probe is to comprise an orbiter, lander and rover. A The manned spacecraft’s mass is 21.6 metric tons; that of second Mars mission is planned for around 2028, with the the core module of the space station is 22.5 metric tons. So aim of bringing a sample from the surface back to Earth. John Holmes Doug Parker China must use the Long March 5, which entered service in The Moon mission will be Chang’e 5, intended to bring 2016 as the country’s most powerful space launcher, to get back samples. This mission is running three years later President & CEO CEO them to orbit. The Long March 5B, lacking the second stage of than planned three years ago. Before the Long March 5 AAR American Airlines the type’s original version, is designed specifically for the job: flight failure then, Chang’e 5 was scheduled for late 2017; its payload to LEO is “more than 22 metric tons,” Xinhua says. three new targets followed, the latest being some time in The 2017 failure of the Long March 5’s second flight 2020. Now it is “before the end” of 2020. therefore threw awry the schedule for the manned space The lunar mission has evidently not enjoyed the highest Learn more and register at: program and indeed those for sending a probe to Mars and priority as officials have reshuffled missions for the Long the next one to the Moon, both of which also required the March 5. mroamericas.aviationweek.com big launcher. It returned to flight in December 2019, thus The 2020 Mars and Moon missions will use the launcher the resumption of activity. in its two-stage version. c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > U.S. big four fleet shuffle p. 22 Restarting airline operations p. 25 CARES Act disputes p. 28 Mitsubishi SpaceJet M100 suspension p. 30 PRESERVATION PRIORITY

age” generally applies when a rapid or > PLANNED DURATION OF STORAGE AFFECTS unexpected return to service is unlike- ly; the planned out-of-service period in COST FOR AIRLINES such cases is up to two years. These two definitions are the basis > MULTIPLE PROTECTIONS ARE REQUIRED ON for more nuanced situations. And de- AIRFRAMES AND SYSTEMS pending on the carrier and the nation- al authority, the maximum duration of “parking” may vary. Thierry Dubois Lyon and Sean Broderick Washington Nonetheless, parking an aircraft for any length of time is a significant s passenger demand evaporated in just a few weeks, commitment. To park an Embraer airlines scrambled to park or store most of their air- regional jet for three months, for ex- ample, Portugal’s TAP Express plans craft. Not only were operators forced to move fast, 25 work-hours for initial storage, four without the long-term planning usually associated work-hours for a seven-day periodic A check, 12 work-hours for a 30-day pe- with such actions, but they also must now cope with the volatil- riodic check and 30 work-hours for a ity of the situation. One key: having aircraft ready to return into return to service. For this last phase, 15 service at short notice in case an opportunity emerges. work-hours should be added for those scheduled calendar items that will Yet given the differences between narrow bodies, widebodies and region- come due during the parking period. the costs of short-term parking and al jets was in service as of April 21 (see These time frames vary with air- longer-term storage, airlines must pie chart, page 22). But another 9.5%, craft size. Preparing a Boeing 777- perform a careful balancing act. or 2,670 aircraft, were in a parked/re- 300ER for a 30-day stint on the The uncertainty about how quickly serve status, defined as having flown ground takes about 350 work-hours, passenger demand will return means either one or two of the previous sev- says Paul Longhurst, Haeco Group’s airlines are hedging bets with their en days. That figure is only slightly general manager of light mainte - fleet strategies, blurring the lines be- lower than the total number of stored nance. Besides being useless to an tween what is in service and what is aircraft—generally defined as having operation—no charter flights, pilot- parked. A snapshot of recent activi- been out of service for at least 90 days. proficiency checks or cargo-only so- ty from the Aviation Week Network In Airbus’ definition, “parking” usu- journs—a parked aircraft cannot sim- Fleet Discovery database shows just ally means the aircraft is taken out of ply be powered on, taxied out and put 36% of the global fleet of Western-built operation for up to six months. “Stor- back in service. Longhurst estimates

Airlines are using any available airport space they can find until they determine when aircraft will be needed again.

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > U.S. big four fleet shuffle p. 23 Restarting airline operations p. 25 CARES Act disputes p. 28 Mitsubishi SpaceJet M100 suspension p. 30 PRESERVATION PRIORITY age” generally applies when a rapid or that getting a 777-300ER back out for scheduled maintenance tasks into contact with,” Christian Niederst, > PLANNED DURATION OF STORAGE AFFECTS unexpected return to service is unlike- of 30-day parking will take 600-650 and halving the frequency of peri odic an Airbus field service representative, ly; the planned out-of-service period in work-hours. ground checks to every two weeks. and Christoph Maier, a customer man- COST FOR AIRLINES such cases is up to two years. The ramifications of sidelining air- American Airlines has taken a sim- ager at Airbus’ customer services engi- These two definitions are the basis craft has airlines exploring all options. ilar approach to Cathay, bolstered neering department, wrote recently in > MULTIPLE PROTECTIONS ARE REQUIRED ON for more nuanced situations. And de- Cathay Pacific started out by parking by having multiple locations where a company technical publication. “High AIRFRAMES AND SYSTEMS pending on the carrier and the nation- its aircraft for 30 days at a time. “That it can conveniently service aircraft. humidity, lightning strikes and volcanic al authority, the maximum duration of was the easiest one to start with, giv- The carrier has aircraft parked in ash also require special consideration.” “parking” may vary. ing them both flexibility and breath- Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Pittsburgh, “We use anticorrosive fluid in the Thierry Dubois Lyon and Sean Broderick Washington Nonetheless, parking an aircraft ing space to see what is around the where it has heavy maintenance oper- engines’ lubrication systems and some for any length of time is a significant corner,” Longhurst says. The airline, ations, as well as in Mobile, Alabama, components that are not covered with s passenger demand evaporated in just a few weeks, commitment. To park an Embraer acknowledging that it will not need and Roswell, New Mexico, where paint, such as landing gear parts,” airlines scrambled to park or store most of their air- regional jet for three months, for ex- many of its 130-strong fleet of wide- it has long-term relationships with says Gery Mortreux, executive vice ample, Portugal’s TAP Express plans body passenger jets for some time, is third-party providers. The approach president at Air France Industries. craft. Not only were operators forced to move fast, 25 work-hours for initial storage, four now looking at longer-term parking. gives American flexibility to keep air- To prevent a tire structure from without the long-term planning usually associated work-hours for a seven-day periodic Since most maintenance manuals do craft on standby or prepare them for losing its shape, wheels must be ro- A check, 12 work-hours for a 30-day pe- not cover short-term storage, airlines longer storage stints with little change tated regularly. Air France Industries with such actions, but they also must now cope with the volatil- riodic check and 30 work-hours for a and OEMs are crafting strategies as in workforce needs. technicians rotate them by one-third ity of the situation. One key: having aircraft ready to return into return to service. For this last phase, 15 they go. “Parking at remote locations makes of a round at fixed intervals. They use service at short notice in case an opportunity emerges. work-hours should be added for those “Some of the parking procedures traditional preservation tougher” be- jacks to lift up the landing gear and scheduled calendar items that will have been altered with temporary re- cause of a lack of on-site staff, says take the wheel off the ground. Yet given the differences between narrow bodies, widebodies and region- come due during the parking period. visions to make them more workable, Erik Olund, American’s managing Apertures and openings—such as the costs of short-term parking and al jets was in service as of April 21 (see These time frames vary with air- and I think that will go on,” Longhurst director of base maintenance. “We pitot tubes—have to be wrapped up longer-term storage, airlines must pie chart, page 22). But another 9.5%, craft size. Preparing a Boeing 777- says. “We’re looking at the 60-day strategically use locations where we and made watertight, says Ahmed perform a careful balancing act. or 2,670 aircraft, were in a parked/re- 300ER for a 30-day stint on the parking procedures now, and we’re already have a footprint.” Safa, Emirates’ divisional senior vice The uncertainty about how quickly serve status, defined as having flown ground takes about 350 work-hours, asking the OEM what we must do and Aircraft sitting on the ground face president of engineering. passenger demand will return means either one or two of the previous sev- says Paul Longhurst, Haeco Group’s what we can mitigate. It’s an ongoing multiple threats. Proper protection is Covering and sealing should be airlines are hedging bets with their en days. That figure is only slightly general manager of light mainte - process, and we’re not through with key, so both parking and storage must thorough to prevent unwelcome fleet strategies, blurring the lines be- lower than the total number of stored nance. Besides being useless to an it yet.” be approached like a planned mainte- “passengers” from finding a way into tween what is in service and what is aircraft—generally defined as having operation—no charter flights, pilot- In the context of the COVID-19 nance check. the cabin. “It only takes weeks for ro- parked. A snapshot of recent activi- been out of service for at least 90 days. proficiency checks or cargo-only so- crisis, Airbus is providing technical Weather can cause problems. “If dents, birds and insects to cause se- ty from the Aviation Week Network In Airbus’ definition, “parking” usu- journs—a parked aircraft cannot sim- justifications and solutions to reduce rain, snow, salty air, dust or sand enter rious damage to a previously pristine Fleet Discovery database shows just ally means the aircraft is taken out of ply be powered on, taxied out and put the maintenance burden. These in- air ducts, they can degrade or contam- cabin with seats, carpets and wiring 36% of the global fleet of Western-built operation for up to six months. “Stor- back in service. Longhurst estimates clude extending calendar intervals inate the mechanical parts they come all vulnerable, particularly if a nest

Airlines are using any available airport space they can find until they determine when aircraft will be needed again.

MICHAEL CIAGLO/GETTYIMAGES

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 21 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

is established,” Niederst and Maier Air Transport Jet Fleet Status* emphasize. Emirates also protects the elements of the cabin interior— Nonoperators 119 monuments, seats and inflight enter- 0.4% tainment equipment. Stored 3,618 The threats can vary depending on the region. Generally speaking, aircraft should be parked with the 12.8% nose pointing in the direction of the In Service 10,182 prevailing winds to limit the effect of wind and gusts on the aircraft. 36.1% In Japan, typhoons involving strong winds call for mooring as well as fill- Total: ing fuel tanks to add weight. 28,179 In the Middle East, to protect against locust swarms, extra caution 41.1% is required when sealing ducts. Mov- ing aircraft to hangars, where possi- ble, may therefore be a good idea. 9.5% Parked Airbus says that in Asia and 11,590 Northern Europe particularly, hu- Parked/Reserve** 2,670 midity can be difficult to handle. In heavy rain, there is a risk of cabin *As of April 30, 2020. flooding without careful sealing. Yet **Aircraft operated 1-2 of previous 7 days. evaporation needs to be enabled, to Includes Western-built narrowbodies, widebodies, prevent mold. regional jets in scheduled, nonscheduled operations. Source: Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery

Coronavirus Pandemic Prompts ith the global recovery in air U.S. Big Four To Shuffle Their Fleets traffic demand expected to Wlast 2-5 years, airlines that survive will emerge from the novel > THE LARGEST U.S. CARRIERS ARE PERMANENTLY PARKING coronavirus pandemic as smaller busi- AT LEAST 300 AIRCRAFT nesses operating more efficient fleets. Moreover, several of the largest U.S. > AMERICAN’S CHANGES REMOVE FIVE ENTIRE SUBLETS airlines have taken significant steps in preparation for the world after the Ben Goldstein and Sean Broderick Washington COVID-19 crisis. U.S. carriers had 3,317 aircraft parked as of the week ending April American will speed up the retirement of 28, totaling roughly half of the U.S. its Boeing 757 fleet as part of its response commercial fleet, according to data to the novel coronavirus and related from Airlines for America. The Avia- decline in passenger demand. tion Week Network’s Fleet Discovery database info shows that many of the aircraft listed as in service are flying no more than two days per week as airlines prioritize flexibility until they have reliable demand trend data. While many parked aircraft will re- turn, a significant percentage—partic- ularly older airframes—are not likely to see scheduled passenger service again. An early wave of retirements, led by three of the four largest U.S. car- riers, has been confirmed. And more will come, necessitated by very slug- gish demand growth (see graph, page 24) and continued new deliveries, albe- it at a reduced pace. Negotiations with OEMs to postpone deliveries are ongo- ing, but U.S. carriers have not revealed JOEPRIESAVIATION.COM

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION is established,” Niederst and Maier Ar rasor Sas Anticipation is essential. Sufficient to be removed. Engines, APUs, flaps The remaining aircraft were not all emphasize. Emirates also protects fuel should remain in the tanks to run and computers can be transferred to flying, because some were undergoing the elements of the cabin interior— Nonoperators 119 the engines and operate the auxiliary in-service aircraft. heavy maintenance checks. monuments, seats and inflight enter- 0. power unit (APU). Air France, for in- Parked aircraft should be flight- Some operators have elected not tainment equipment. stance, maintains a 10-20% level. ready. Batteries can be removed to to prepare any aircraft for a long Stored 3,618 The threats can vary depending “We use Airbus’ and Boeing’s rec- preserve them, because they can be period of storage. “We are looking to on the region. Generally speaking, ommendations to create our proce- quickly reinstalled. be flying again at some point in the aircraft should be parked with the 2. dures, which we submit to the French The number of work-hours in- summer,” the Volotea spokesman says. nose pointing in the direction of the In Service 10,182 civil aviation authority, DGAC. The volved in either parking or storage Air France, too, has chosen to park its prevailing winds to limit the effect recommendations from the two air- operations depends on whether the aircraft for 1-3 months, which means of wind and gusts on the aircraft. . framers are close,” Mortreux says. aircraft is in a hangar, with all equip- they can return to service with mini- In Japan, typhoons involving strong When choosing between parking ment handy, or on the ramp. And so- mal anticipation. Of Air France’s 224 winds call for mooring as well as fill- Total: and storage, some important crite- cial distancing makes transportation aircraft, 180 are on the ground. ing fuel tanks to add weight. 28,179 ria should be considered. Parking even more complicated. “We move There may be a silver lining to the In the Middle East, to protect involves less effort initially and at our technicians in vans but never current predicament. Thanks to the against locust swarms, extra caution . the end of the period. But workforce more than two at a time,” a Volotea unprecedented number of aircraft is required when sealing ducts. Mov- needs and costs will be significantly spokesman says. Air France Indus- currently parked or stored, airfram- ing aircraft to hangars, where possi- higher on the periodic checks, such tries employees now work in shifts, ers will receive new feedback on their ble, may therefore be a good idea. . as engine runs, a TAP Air Portugal as opposed to their previous simul- storage instructions. For instance, Parked Airbus says that in Asia and 11,590 spokesperson says. Conversely, re- taneous presence on-site. operators found that the aluminum Northern Europe particularly, hu- Parked/Reserve** 2,670 turn to service after storage involves For TAP Air Portugal, initial park- blinds being used to prevent fabric midity can be difficult to handle. In much more work than after parking, ing or storage can take 20-200 work- fading inside the cabin were caus- heavy rain, there is a risk of cabin *As of April 30, 2020. he adds. hours depending on working condi- ing paint discoloration around the flooding without careful sealing. Yet **Aircraft operated 1-2 of previous 7 days. Another criterion is the prospect tions, the spokesperson says. As of windows, wrote Airbus’ Maier and evaporation needs to be enabled, to Includes Western-built narrowbodies, widebodies, of removing parts. In stored aircraft, late April, the carrier had 80% of its Niederst. A new technique was devel- prevent mold. regional jets in scheduled, nonscheduled operations. Source: Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery it is common for major components 86-aircraft fleet in storage or parking. oped to address that. c

Coronavirus Pandemic Prompts ith the global recovery in air any major order cancellations despite west has 27 MAXs among the 450 in capacity as a result of the pandemic. U.S. Big Four To Shuffle Their Fleets traffic demand expected to the massive first-quarter losses suf- Boeing’s backlog of built but undeliv- Even factoring in about 100 737-700s Wlast 2-5 years, airlines that fered across the industry because of ered MAX aircraft. Southwest’s revised that are prime candidates for perma- survive will emerge from the novel the coronavirus crisis. delivery schedule means the airline will nent removal, Southwest has signifi- > THE LARGEST U.S. CARRIERS ARE PERMANENTLY PARKING coronavirus pandemic as smaller busi- Southwest Airlines went a step fur- not need an aircraft from Boeing’s 737 cant flexibility. AT LEAST 300 AIRCRAFT nesses operating more efficient fleets. ther, reiterating its preference for the production line until sometime next “The industry is going to rebound, Moreover, several of the largest U.S. still-grounded Boeing 737 MAX, even if year. Manufacturing is just restarting and we’re ultimately going to need air- > AMERICAN’S CHANGES REMOVE FIVE ENTIRE SUBLETS airlines have taken significant steps lightly used 737NGs become available. after a three-month pause related to planes to fly in the fleet,” Southwest in preparation for the world after the “Our preference is to get new airplanes the MAX’s March 2019 grounding and Chief Operating Officer Michael Van Ben Goldstein and Sean Broderick Washington COVID-19 crisis. from Boeing,” Southwest Chief Finan- related delivery halt. de Ven said. “We do want to bring the U.S. carriers had 3,317 aircraft cial Officer (CFO) Tammy Romo told Even with fuel prices sitting com- MAX into the fleet, and if we need to parked as of the week ending April analysts on a recent earnings call. fortably at multiyear lows, Romo said early-retire or manage the fleet by tak- American will speed up the retirement of 28, totaling roughly half of the U.S. But they will come in slowly—so the 14% fuel-cost savings offered by the ing older airplanes out, I think that’s its Boeing 757 fleet as part of its response commercial fleet, according to data slowly, in fact, that the airline proba- MAX will amount to “very meaningful the best position for us to be in.” to the novel coronavirus and related from Airlines for America. The Avia- bly will not take a MAX fresh from the and significant” operating cost reduc- American Airlines, which ended the decline in passenger demand. tion Week Network’s Fleet Discovery factory until well into 2021. The Dal- tions in the future. “[We want] to do first quarter with an industry high of database info shows that many of the las-based carrier has reached a deal our fleet planning in a way that deliv- 1,484 aircraft in its combined mainline aircraft listed as in service are flying with Boeing according to which it will ers good economics on an operating and regional fleets, has accelerated no more than two days per week as take “no more than” 48 MAX deliver- basis and also delivers low ownership removal of its least efficient assets. airlines prioritize flexibility until they ies between now and 2022. The change costs for years and years to come,” The company took the unusual step of have reliable demand trend data. removes 59 planned Boeing deliveries Romo said. announcing the immediate retirement While many parked aircraft will re- from the next two calendar years. An- Southwest had been holding back of five separate aircraft types totaling turn, a significant percentage—partic- other 16 MAXs ordered from lessors on retirements prior to the pandem- more than 120 aircraft, the majority ularly older airframes—are not likely remain in the carrier’s fleet plan—at ic, in part due to the continued delay of which have been in service for 20 to see scheduled passenger service least for now. in MAX deliveries. Now management years or more and were earmarked to again. An early wave of retirements, Romo said the carrier’s prepan- intends to speed up retirements of be parked in the coming years. led by three of the four largest U.S. demic plan had it taking delivery of 27 older 737s. The plan hinges on the Removing the Airbus A330-300, carriers, has been confirmed. And MAXs in 2020, assuming the grounded airline sticking to its commitment to Boeing 757 and 767, Bombardier CRJ- more will come, necessitated by very model gained regulatory approval to make the MAX a key subfleet going 200 and Embraer 190 fleets amounts sluggish demand growth (see graph) return to service. That number will forward. Southwest has taken delivery to a substantial simplification of the and continued new deliveries, albeit now be less than 27 no matter when of 34 MAXs and has 265 on order. The carrier’s cost structure, lower main- at a reduced pace. Negotiations with the MAX is cleared to fly again and carrier ended March with 742 aircraft tenance expenses and greatly reduced OEMs to postpone deliveries are ongo- deliveries resume. in its fleet, including the 34 grounded operating complexity. The airline in ing, but U.S. carriers have not revealed The figure is notable because South- MAXs and 350 aircraft sidelined to cut early March said 17 767-300ERs and JOEPRIESAVIATION.COM

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 23 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

S o or Ars Ma A 1

000

0000

2000

Total Hours 20000 Total Cycles

1000

10000

000

0 March April May

*Includes total hours and cycles for mainline aircraft flown by American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines Source: Daniel Williams/Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery

34 757-200s would be parked by mid- Delta Air Lines, which reported 677 of 40 MAXs through 2021. This figure 2021 due to lower demand. The A330s active aircraft in its mainline fleet as of is less than half the number initially and regional jets were added to the list, March 31—a figure that excludes about expected. If all 40 of those jets are de- and the entire group was moved to im- 200 that are parked—is also retiring livered, United CFO Gerald Laderman mediate retirement status. They may its most inefficient jetliners ahead of said the company has an additional 131 not be the last. schedule. The company has announced MAX aircraft scheduled for delivery American is eyeing 42 older 737- that its MD-88 and MD-90 workhorses in 2022 and beyond. “We are discuss- 800s, its 15 A330-200s and an unspec- will end their decades-long careers in ing the timing of these deliveries with ified number of older A320ceos and June. The Atlanta-based carrier has Boeing,” he said. “However, one thing other regional jets as additional re- indicated its 757s and 767s are next on is certain: I do not anticipate taking tirement candidates. The Fort Worth- the chopping block, along with more any of those aircraft unless and until based carrier still plans to take deliv- smaller regional jets. Deliveries were we need them.” ery of $1.7 billion worth of new aircraft put on hold this year as the company The Chicago-based carrier has not during the year, with the bulk arriving assesses the path of recovery and its yet announced any aircraft retire - in the back half due to the extended future fleet needs. ments, but a review of Aviation Week’s MAX grounding. “Anything that was scheduled to fleet data shows its 1,488-strong main- “These savings include reduced air- retire over the next five years has an line and regional fleet includes 103 craft sparing, reduced parts invento- accelerated path toward retirement— aircraft in long-term storage. Exclud- ries and crew scheduling efficiencies, just to be very straightforward,” Delta ing the 14 grounded MAXs, that fig- all of which will have a significant effect CEO Ed Bastian said. “We’ll be taking ure includes a host of aging 737NGs, on our cost structure going forward,” the time to accelerate into the future 757s and 767s as well as some older American CFO Derek Kerr said of the and fast-forwarding many of these de- A320ceos. retirements. “Even with these chang- cisions with simplification and stream- “We have a lot of parked aircraft,” es, we retain the flexibility to pursue lining of our entire business model at Laderman said. “Those are, in our efficient growth through increased the core of the new normal for Delta.” view right now, temporarily parked. utilization or further reduce our fleet United Airlines will continue receiv- And until we see what’s needed to run to match demand across our system ing new deliveries for this year and the operation, we’re not going to make and hubs.” next at a slowed pace, taking delivery any firm decisions.” c

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION SNETETTIMAES

S o or Ars Ma A 1 Restart—But How?

000

0000

2000

Total Hours 20000 Total Cycles

MYRIAD RULES THREATEN AIR TRAVEL REBOUND ICAO TRIES TO HARMONIZE AIRLINE GUIDELINES 1000 > >

Helen Massy-Beresford Paris, Sean Broderick, Bill Carey and Ben Goldstein

10000 Washington, Adrian Schofield Auckland and Jens Flottau Frankfurt

s more countries consider procedures at each stage of a trip, from Airlines are hoping empty check-in 000 slowly lifting travel restric- prefl ight arrivals at the airport through desks will be history very soon. Ations over the coming weeks, infl ight procedures and layovers. they and the airline industry face the The ICAO-led Aviation Recovery while avoiding quarantines, were not daunting task of fi nding ways to re- Task Force aims to have baseline draft permitted onto the ramp for prefl ight 0 open air travel that ensure health pro- guidance for each commercial aviation walk-arounds. “That has serious safe- March April May tection while keeping any new rules segment by June, says Ansa Jordaan, ty considerations,” Jordaan says. operationally manageable. Airline lobby chief of the ICAO Air Navigation Bu- The PHC concept will develop guid- *Includes total hours and cycles for mainline aircraft flown by American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines groups are pushing for harmonized reau’s Aviation Medicine Section. ance and possible “certifi cations” for Source: Daniel Williams/Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery standards, but the debate has only Representatives include global avia- each module, Jordaan says, while just begun in large markets such as tion organizations, regulatory bodies ensuring all protocols align with avi- the U.S. and the EU about necessary and state health agencies. Each of the ation’s safety management approach 34 757-200s would be parked by mid- Delta Air Lines, which reported 677 of 40 MAXs through 2021. This figure preconditions. fi ve modules—crew, aircraft, airport to operations. For instance, an air- 2021 due to lower demand. The A330s active aircraft in its mainline fleet as of is less than half the number initially The International Civil Aviation facilities, passengers and cargo—has craft that has been disinfected could and regional jets were added to the list, March 31—a figure that excludes about expected. If all 40 of those jets are de- Organization (ICAO)—which has no a subset of task force members with have a placard placed in the cabin or and the entire group was moved to im- 200 that are parked—is also retiring livered, United CFO Gerald Laderman legal rulemaking power and whose subject expertise. fl ight deck. Similar approvals such as mediate retirement status. They may its most inefficient jetliners ahead of said the company has an additional 131 deadlines typically span years, not “We need to be aligned with what “immunity passports” will be much not be the last. schedule. The company has announced MAX aircraft scheduled for delivery weeks—is emerging as aviation’s best the public experts are saying. We harder for passengers to obtain, at American is eyeing 42 older 737- that its MD-88 and MD-90 workhorses in 2022 and beyond. “We are discuss- hope for creating feasible, consistent also have a unique operating environ- least until screening improves. 800s, its 15 A330-200s and an unspec- will end their decades-long careers in ing the timing of these deliveries with standards to get aircraft fl ying again. ment,” Jordaan says. “At the moment, “Given the lack of a vaccine and de- ified number of older A320ceos and June. The Atlanta-based carrier has Boeing,” he said. “However, one thing A task force, working under the Col- it is just haywire everywhere. We need fi nitive treatment, and the limitations other regional jets as additional re- indicated its 757s and 767s are next on is certain: I do not anticipate taking laborative Arrangement for the Pre- to have some sort of order.” on testing and resources, the risk of tirement candidates. The Fort Worth- the chopping block, along with more any of those aircraft unless and until vention and Management of Public The range of issues is immense, contracting COVID-19 during air trav- based carrier still plans to take deliv- smaller regional jets. Deliveries were we need them.” Health Events in Civil Aviation, set up stretching from how passengers should el cannot be completely eliminated, ery of $1.7 billion worth of new aircraft put on hold this year as the company The Chicago-based carrier has not in 2006 following the SARS epidemic, be screened to what cleaning agents but the risk to crew and passengers during the year, with the bulk arriving assesses the path of recovery and its yet announced any aircraft retire - is developing the Public Health Corri- are suitable for wiping down cabins. can be mitigated signifi cantly by these in the back half due to the extended future fleet needs. ments, but a review of Aviation Week’s dors (PHC) concept. A survey in April of ICAO member measures,” the initial guidance docu- MAX grounding. “Anything that was scheduled to fleet data shows its 1,488-strong main- The group’s starting point is eval- states generated responses from 87 ment says. “These savings include reduced air- retire over the next five years has an line and regional fleet includes 103 uating piles of guidance material is- countries that underscored the global Alexandre de Juniac, secretary craft sparing, reduced parts invento- accelerated path toward retirement— aircraft in long-term storage. Exclud- sued by states, agencies, operators, disparity and highlighted unintended general and CEO of the International ries and crew scheduling efficiencies, just to be very straightforward,” Delta ing the 14 grounded MAXs, that fig- aircraft manufacturers and others. consequences of lockdown orders. Air Transport Association (IATA) all of which will have a significant effect CEO Ed Bastian said. “We’ll be taking ure includes a host of aging 737NGs, Its goal: Issue guidance on creating The ICAO survey showed that pi- says: “Impacts of the crisis on long- on our cost structure going forward,” the time to accelerate into the future 757s and 767s as well as some older and maintaining “clean” modules that, lots from one-third of the responding haul travel will be much more severe American CFO Derek Kerr said of the and fast-forwarding many of these de- A320ceos. linked together, span the commercial airlines reported not having access and of a longer duration than what is retirements. “Even with these chang- cisions with simplification and stream- “We have a lot of parked aircraft,” aviation travel process for passengers to food or adequate rest facilities at expected in domestic markets. This es, we retain the flexibility to pursue lining of our entire business model at Laderman said. “Those are, in our and employees. a destination because of restrictions makes globally agreed and imple- efficient growth through increased the core of the new normal for Delta.” view right now, temporarily parked. The initial guidance document, cov- placed by local authorities. Also re- mented biosecurity standards for the utilization or further reduce our fleet United Airlines will continue receiv- And until we see what’s needed to run ering cargo fl ight crews, was developed ported: several cases where flight travel process all the more critical. to match demand across our system ing new deliveries for this year and the operation, we’re not going to make over the past several weeks and re- crews, told to remain onboard their We have a small window to avoid the and hubs.” next at a slowed pace, taking delivery any firm decisions.” c leased May 11. It covers recommended aircraft to conduct quick turnarounds consequences of uncoordinated uni-

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lateral measures that marked the a mandate from the federal govern- related mandates. But a 2014 mem- post-9/11 period.” ment. But while the group accepts let- orandum of understanding with the In addition to its concerns over a ting airlines oversee mask-wearing, it Occupational Safety and Health Ad- lack of coordination, IATA is mainly remains firm that medical screenings ministration (OSHA) suggests other- opposed to two measures currently dis- are the responsibility of the govern- wise. The agreement gave OSHA ju- cussed or implemented in some coun- ment, not airlines. risdiction over three specific issues in tries: quarantine for incoming passen- In an effort to accommodate social- cabins: hazard communication, noise, gers and requiring empty middle seats. distancing concerns, some airlines are and blood-borne pathogen exposure. “Quarantine is useless if we do not im- setting internal capacity limits in the OSHA’s aircraft-cabin rules could not plement a robust [protection] system,” cabin. Delta Air Lines is capping seat- cover any other issues, nor would they de Juniac says. “International travel ing at 50% in first class and 60% in the apply to pilots. cannot restart under such conditions.” main cabin through June 30, encom- “FAA will continue to exercise its Social distancing on board would passing virtually all middle seats and statutory authority over all other “challenge the viability of airlines,” some window and aisle seats in cabins working conditions of aircraft cabin IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce configured with 1-2, 2-2 and 2-3 seat- crewmembers while they are on air- asserts. On narrowbodies such mea- ing. American Airlines is also limiting craft in operation, and to fully occupy sures would allow for a maximum load the number of passengers on each air- and exhaust the field of flight deck factor of 66% and, when widebodies and craft, blocking off 50% of main-cabin crew occupational safety and health regional jets are taken into account, middle seats and seats near flight at- while they are on aircraft in opera- only 62% of seats could be filled. Precri- tendant jump seats. tion,” the agreement says. sis breakeven load factors were 75% for Executives at low-cost carriers such Updated guidance the agency issued North America, 81% for the Asia-Pacific as Frontier, however, have asserted in a Safety Alerts for Operators dated region and 79% for Europe. To cover the that capping capacity in the cabin is May 11 states that the FAA and the Cen- cost of leaving seats empty, fares would not viable for their low-fare business ters for Disease Control and Prevention have to rise by up to 54%, Pearce says. models. They estimate that sealing (CDC) “recommend and expect” that IATA instead proposes measures off one-third of seats would force the airlines apply their company-developed such as health declarations ahead of company to raise fares by up to 50%. COVID-19 preparedness plans in con- departure, temperature checks, man- Despite large capacity cuts across junction with the federal guidance. datory masks and redesigned catering the industry, A4A’s members are cur- Nevertheless, the Air Line Pilots As- processes on board. Asymptomatic rently averaging just 17 passengers sociation (ALPA) in early May issued a passengers infected with the corona- per domestic flight and 29 per inter- report based on “deidentified firsthand virus would not be caught by the tem- national flight. Net bookings are now accounts” from ALPA members at 17 perature controls or through health essentially nonexistent, and carriers airlines indicating that carriers were declarations, but IATA still contends are burning through nearly $10 bil- not uniformly following federal guide- that wearing face masks in combina- lion each month. The outflows come lines. The union, which represents pi- tion with the onboard air ventilation despite the grounding of 3,188 aircraft lots at 35 U.S. and Canadian airlines, systems and virus filters reduces the as of May 12, totaling 52% of the com- reports that 300 of its members have risk of infection greatly. bined commercial fleet. tested positive for COVID-19. Regional approaches differ consid- The FAA has eased some regulatory “In order to restore public confi- erably. Absent binding guidance from requirements affecting airports, carri- dence, the government needs to do the FAA, U.S. airlines are coming up ers and pilots to relieve the economic its job,” says ALPA National Safety with their own rules and processes for and health impact of the pandemic. Re- Coordinator Bob Fox, a United Air- the time being. In Europe, some mem- sponding to a request by A4A on be- lines Airbus A320 captain. “It needs ber states are pressing ahead while half of its member airlines, the agency to mandate that all carriers comply detailed new rules on an EU level are on April 8 granted an exemption that with the CDC guidelines. That’s the still being worked on. allows flight attendants to relocate job of the FAA, but they’re not do - U.S. airlines want the Transporta- from the jump seats they would nor- ing their job. And airline lobbyists in tion Security Administration (TSA) mally occupy on an aircraft to observe Washington are not being honest with to begin checking the temperatures social-distancing requirements. Congress or the flying public.” of all passengers and customer-fac- Effective through June 30, the ex- In addition to demanding that the ing employees “as long as necessary” emption also excuses flight attendants FAA enforce CDC guidelines, ALPA throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. from demonstrating the use of life has called on Congress to require that While Denver-based Frontier Airlines vests and oxygen masks to passengers all airline crews and passengers wear will begin screening temperatures at before each flight. face masks, ensure carriers provide the gate on its own, Airlines for Amer- As of mid-May, however, the FAA pilots with personal protective equip- ica (A4A) warns such an approach had resisted calls to mandate—rather ment on flight decks, and clarify that could risk creating a confusing patch- than just recommend—that airlines airline pilots, as essential workers, have work of rules across the industry. comply with federal public health access to priority COVID-19 testing. A4A’s member carriers have volun- guidelines aimed at protecting flight The TSA, responsible for manning tarily taken the step of requiring all crews and passengers from exposure airport security lanes, announced on passengers and crew to wear facial to the coronavirus. May 7 that its screeners are required coverings throughout each stage of The FAA insists it does not hold the to wear facial protection. their journeys, in the absence of such statutory authority to issue health- The European Centre for Disease

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION lateral measures that marked the a mandate from the federal govern- related mandates. But a 2014 mem- Prevention and Control (ECDC) and with national competent authorities, also be flexible, including the possibil- post-9/11 period.” ment. But while the group accepts let- orandum of understanding with the the European Union Aviation Safety with the aim of deploying measures ity to reintroduce certain measures if In addition to its concerns over a ting airlines oversee mask-wearing, it Occupational Safety and Health Ad- Agency (EASA) are set to put forward for the operation of flights coherently the epidemiological situation requires.” lack of coordination, IATA is mainly remains firm that medical screenings ministration (OSHA) suggests other- operational guidelines for airlines in across the EU.” While airlines await the more opposed to two measures currently dis- are the responsibility of the govern- wise. The agreement gave OSHA ju- the coming weeks. The EU transport guidelines were detailed guidelines, they are imple- cussed or implemented in some coun- ment, not airlines. risdiction over three specific issues in The two agencies are due to map out part of a broader framework aimed at menting their own health measures. tries: quarantine for incoming passen- In an effort to accommodate social- cabins: hazard communication, noise, a baseline aviation health safety proto- getting tourism, a sector that accounts Air France began progressively imple- gers and requiring empty middle seats. distancing concerns, some airlines are and blood-borne pathogen exposure. col, proposed for application across the for almost 10% of EU GDP, moving menting temperature checks, using a “Quarantine is useless if we do not im- setting internal capacity limits in the OSHA’s aircraft-cabin rules could not EU, which the European Commission again—and allowing EU citizens to be contactless infrared thermometer, on plement a robust [protection] system,” cabin. Delta Air Lines is capping seat- cover any other issues, nor would they (EC) says would cover procedures to able to travel safely for work, family departures for all flights as of May 11. de Juniac says. “International travel ing at 50% in first class and 60% in the apply to pilots. limit contamination risks throughout reasons or vacations. Passengers are also required to wear cannot restart under such conditions.” main cabin through June 30, encom- “FAA will continue to exercise its the travel process: avoiding concentra- But individual member states are face masks on all the carrier’s flights, Social distancing on board would passing virtually all middle seats and statutory authority over all other tion of passengers, limiting interaction at different stages of the pandemic, tying in with a French requirement for “challenge the viability of airlines,” some window and aisle seats in cabins working conditions of aircraft cabin on board, exploring the most appropri- some of them tentatively easing out masks on public transport. Lufthansa IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce configured with 1-2, 2-2 and 2-3 seat- crewmembers while they are on air- ate allocation of seats based on technical of strict lockdown measures into the made face masks mandatory but is not asserts. On narrowbodies such mea- ing. American Airlines is also limiting craft in operation, and to fully occupy constraints, and prioritizing electronic next stage of controlling the virus, doing temperature checks. sures would allow for a maximum load the number of passengers on each air- and exhaust the field of flight deck documents and means of payment. and differing regulations will compli- Many Asia-Pacific airlines are leav- factor of 66% and, when widebodies and craft, blocking off 50% of main-cabin crew occupational safety and health The EASA/ECDC guidelines cate the situation for airlines attempt- ing seats empty to maintain passenger regional jets are taken into account, middle seats and seats near flight at- while they are on aircraft in opera- distance. Other airlines only 62% of seats could be filled. Precri- tendant jump seats. tion,” the agreement says. have gone further by re- sis breakeven load factors were 75% for Executives at low-cost carriers such Updated guidance the agency issued quiring all passengers 10 Ar rasor or rs North America, 81% for the Asia-Pacific as Frontier, however, have asserted in a Safety Alerts for Operators dated to wear masks. Cathay region and 79% for Europe. To cover the that capping capacity in the cabin is May 11 states that the FAA and the Cen- 120 Pacific says passengers cost of leaving seats empty, fares would not viable for their low-fare business ters for Disease Control and Prevention must wear masks when have to rise by up to 54%, Pearce says. models. They estimate that sealing (CDC) “recommend and expect” that 110 separation of 2 m (7 ft.) IATA instead proposes measures off one-third of seats would force the airlines apply their company-developed cannot be maintained, such as health declarations ahead of company to raise fares by up to 50%. COVID-19 preparedness plans in con- 100 both preboarding and departure, temperature checks, man- Despite large capacity cuts across junction with the federal guidance. during flight. datory masks and redesigned catering the industry, A4A’s members are cur- Nevertheless, the Air Line Pilots As- 90 The governments of processes on board. Asymptomatic rently averaging just 17 passengers sociation (ALPA) in early May issued a Australia and New Zea- passengers infected with the corona- per domestic flight and 29 per inter- report based on “deidentified firsthand 80 land have held high-lev- virus would not be caught by the tem- national flight. Net bookings are now accounts” from ALPA members at 17 el discussions regard- 70 perature controls or through health essentially nonexistent, and carriers airlines indicating that carriers were Revenue Passenger Kilometers ing establishment of declarations, but IATA still contends are burning through nearly $10 bil- not uniformly following federal guide- 0 Domestic a “COVID-safe travel that wearing face masks in combina- lion each month. The outflows come lines. The union, which represents pi- 100 2019 zone” between the coun- International tion with the onboard air ventilation despite the grounding of 3,188 aircraft lots at 35 U.S. and Canadian airlines, 0 tries with no quarantine systems and virus filters reduces the as of May 12, totaling 52% of the com- reports that 300 of its members have requirements. Such an risk of infection greatly. bined commercial fleet. tested positive for COVID-19. 40 arrangement could be Regional approaches differ consid- The FAA has eased some regulatory “In order to restore public confi- 201 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202 2024 introduced as early as erably. Absent binding guidance from requirements affecting airports, carri- dence, the government needs to do July and would repre- the FAA, U.S. airlines are coming up ers and pilots to relieve the economic its job,” says ALPA National Safety Source: IATA sent the first restoration with their own rules and processes for and health impact of the pandemic. Re- Coordinator Bob Fox, a United Air- of regular international the time being. In Europe, some mem- sponding to a request by A4A on be- lines Airbus A320 captain. “It needs should include strengthening ven- ing to offer progressively more flights. service for both countries. Qantas CEO ber states are pressing ahead while half of its member airlines, the agency to mandate that all carriers comply tilation, hospital-grade air filtering Spain is imposing a 14-day quaran- Alan Joyce says this could be the model detailed new rules on an EU level are on April 8 granted an exemption that with the CDC guidelines. That’s the and vertical airflow, says the EC. tine for international travelers start- for later restoring flights to other coun- still being worked on. allows flight attendants to relocate job of the FAA, but they’re not do - The protocol will set out how to re - ing May 15. In the UK, similar plans tries on a case-by-case basis. U.S. airlines want the Transporta- from the jump seats they would nor- ing their job. And airline lobbyists in duce movement in the cabin, such as to impose a 14-day quarantine on pas- Five Pacific Rim nations—Austra- tion Security Administration (TSA) mally occupy on an aircraft to observe Washington are not being honest with through limiting cabin baggage and sengers arriving from abroad have lia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore to begin checking the temperatures social-distancing requirements. Congress or the flying public.” interaction with crew. already drawn criticism from the avi- and South Korea—signed a declara- of all passengers and customer-fac- Effective through June 30, the ex- In addition to demanding that the Adequately managing passenger ation sector, with Willie Walsh, CEO tion committing to developing proce- ing employees “as long as necessary” emption also excuses flight attendants FAA enforce CDC guidelines, ALPA flow will also form a part of the pro- of British Airways and Iberia parent dures to allow essential travel among throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. from demonstrating the use of life has called on Congress to require that tocol, covering aspects such as: early International Airlines Group, saying them. They also agreed to expedite the While Denver-based Frontier Airlines vests and oxygen masks to passengers all airline crews and passengers wear arrival at the airport; prioritizing the move would force it to rethink its flow of goods and facilitate cross-bor- will begin screening temperatures at before each flight. face masks, ensure carriers provide electronic or self-check-in; ensuring planned post-COVID-19 ramp-up in der supply chains. the gate on its own, Airlines for Amer- As of mid-May, however, the FAA pilots with personal protective equip- distancing and minimizing contact at flight capacity. India’s government issued a draft ica (A4A) warns such an approach had resisted calls to mandate—rather ment on flight decks, and clarify that baggage drop-off, security and border “If a generalized lifting of restric- discussion paper to airlines and air- could risk creating a confusing patch- than just recommend—that airlines airline pilots, as essential workers, have control points, at boarding and during tions is not justified by the health sit- ports regarding what operating proce- work of rules across the industry. comply with federal public health access to priority COVID-19 testing. baggage collection; and providing pas- uation, the commission proposes a dures will be put in place when flights A4A’s member carriers have volun- guidelines aimed at protecting flight The TSA, responsible for manning sengers with information on airport phased and coordinated approach that resume. Suggestions from industry tarily taken the step of requiring all crews and passengers from exposure airport security lanes, announced on processes in advance. starts by lifting restrictions between have been received, but the final ver- passengers and crew to wear facial to the coronavirus. May 7 that its screeners are required The EC says the EASA/ECDC pro- areas or member states with suffi- sion of the operating procedures has coverings throughout each stage of The FAA insists it does not hold the to wear facial protection. tocol would specify additional mitiga- ciently similar epidemiological situa- not yet been published, says the civil their journeys, in the absence of such statutory authority to issue health- The European Centre for Disease tion measures “in close coordination tions,” says the EC. The approach must aviation ministry. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 27 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

CARES Act Weaknesses Rhode Island, with American Airlines and Delta halting their respective oper- Cause a Flurry of Disputes ations and transferring customers onto United’s fl ights. This would preserve > SERVICE MANDATE FORCES CARRIERS TO BURN CASH connectivity without forcing airlines AT AN UNSUSTAINABLE RATE to operate unprofi table fl ights. > MANAGEMENT AND LABOR QUARREL OVER PAY RATES PAYCHECK PROBLEMS For airline workers and the unions that Ben Goldstein Washington represent them, the most essential el- ement of the CARES Act is the pay- iven the massive scope of the ultra-low-cost carriers and leisure air- roll-support program, which provides CARES Act stimulus law—in- lines with lower-frequency, point-to- $25 billion in funds for airline employ- Gcluding up to $78 billion for U.S. point networks have to retain a sub- ee pay and benefi ts for the six-month commercial aviation, depending on stantially greater proportion of their period ending Sept. 30. While the law how you slice it—it is hardly surprising schedules to do so. bars carriers from involuntarily fur- that the federal agencies tasked with The Transportation Department has loughing workers or reducing pay rates its implementation have had mixed re- provided some wiggle room for smaller through that period, some airlines may sults. As more and more weaknesses in airlines but has largely kept to the letter have discovered a workaround. the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Eco- of the law, only oŽ ering substantial fl ex- While keeping to the letter of the nomic Security (CARES) Act emerge, ibility in situations where small carriers law, a trio of U.S. carriers have opted fast and fair solutions are needed to look to halt fl ying to large hub cities. to cull schedules instead of pay rates, address the myriad problems created But still, airlines struggling to hold on leading airline unions and members of in its wake. to cash say more needs to be done. Congress to cry foul. Chief among them is the law’s rigid In the meantime, carriers such as The latest fl ash point over the em- service mandate, which requires air- Spirit Airlines and Alaska Airlines are ployment terms erupted on May 5, lines receiving aid to keep fl ying to all getting creative to meet their flying when three unions representing em- domestic markets in their prepandem- commitments, operating nearly emp- ployees at United Airlines sued the ic schedules. Not surprisingly, this rule ty aircraft on unusual triangle routes company in federal court over a plan is forcing carriers to waste badly need- and multistop tag routes to ensure they to force thousands of frontline work- ed cash fl ying near-empty aircraft to touch every point once. Others such as ers from full-time to part-time status, destinations with little or no demand. Delta Air Lines and JetBlue Airways translating to an across-the-board 25% The purpose of the mandate was to are consolidating operations at metro pay cut. As union members flooded ensure all communities maintain ade- regions across the country, when per- congressional o¥ ces with complaints, quate connectivity through the depths mitted to do so. lawmakers began to take notice. of the COVID-19 pandemic. But that But is there a better way? The Trans- “It was not the intention of Congress goal could have been achieved without portation Department has repeatedly that recipients of this taxpayer money imposing a stiŽ economic burden when dismissed an industry-backed proposal would then turn around and disguise airline revenue has virtually collapsed. that would allow airlines to meet the pay reductions by cutting hours,” “Make no mistake, as the duration of requirement through temporary code- Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) wrote United this pandemic lingers, the reasonabili- sharing arrangements. For example, CEO Oscar Munoz in a May 1 letter. ty and practicality of this requirement United Airlines could continue fl ying As the backlash grew, United took signifi cantly diminishes,” Airlines for to T.F. Green Airport in Providence, steps to defuse tensions, partially America (A4A) President and CEO walking back the policy, announced Nicholas Calio told lawmakers at a May Carriers want relief from just days earlier, on May 6. In a letter 9 hearing of the Senate Commerce, Sci- a federal requirement to to employees, the company said it was ence and Transportation Committee. scrapping the hours-reduction plan, maintain service to all “Carriers and communities alike are going to have to come together and domestic markets. acknowledge the footprint and fre- quency of service in 2019 cannot con- vey to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic reality,” he added. While problematic for all airlines, the service mandate has had the most severe impact on the country’s smallest carriers, many of which have appealed repeatedly to the Transportation De- partment for relief. Their reasoning is straightforward: Although legacy carriers with high- frequency hub-and-spoke networks can afford to maintain connectivity,

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CARES Act Weaknesses Rhode Island, with American Airlines opting instead for a voluntary leave of tivities are allowed under the law. As scored only $1.5 million obtained under and Delta halting their respective oper- absence program that will allow par- more and more members of Congress the ratio, a far cry from Merrill Field’s Cause a Flurry of Disputes ations and transferring customers onto ticipants to retain their full-time status are taking notice, such a decision may allocation despite having more than 250 United’s fl ights. This would preserve and associated benefi ts. be coming soon. times as many annual enplanements. > SERVICE MANDATE FORCES CARRIERS TO BURN CASH connectivity without forcing airlines The company did leave open the It is not just the country’s smallest AT AN UNSUSTAINABLE RATE to operate unprofi table fl ights. possibility that schedule reductions AIRPORT ALLOCATIONS airports that won big from the cash/ will be resumed, however, especially Airports lauded Congress for includ- debt formula. In numerous regions, > MANAGEMENT AND LABOR QUARREL OVER PAY RATES PAYCHECK PROBLEMS in the event that participation in the ing $10 billion in emergency grant local competitors of roughly equivalent For airline workers and the unions that voluntary leave program turns out to payments in the CARES Act, money size and in close proximity received Ben Goldstein Washington represent them, the most essential el- be lower than desired. intended to assist with operational wildly di¢ ering award sizes. This phe- ement of the CARES Act is the pay- “Without a high level of partici- expenses and debt payments while or- nomenon is illustrated by two more iven the massive scope of the ultra-low-cost carriers and leisure air- roll-support program, which provides pation, we will have no choice but to dinary revenue streams remain badly Alaska airports, Fairbanks Internation- CARES Act stimulus law—in- lines with lower-frequency, point-to- $25 billion in funds for airline employ- reconsider a mandatory reduction to depressed by the coronavirus crisis. al and Juneau International, the state’s Gcluding up to $78 billion for U.S. point networks have to retain a sub- ee pay and benefi ts for the six-month 30 hr. for our full-time employees,” Tasked with allocating the funds, the second- and third-largest airports by commercial aviation, depending on stantially greater proportion of their period ending Sept. 30. While the law United President Scott Kirby told em- FAA has come under fi re for an admin- annual enplanements, respectively. how you slice it—it is hardly surprising schedules to do so. bars carriers from involuntarily fur- ployees in a May 6 memo. istrative process that some airports Despite being roughly similar in size, that the federal agencies tasked with The Transportation Department has loughing workers or reducing pay rates Declaring victory after United’s have criticized as arbitrary and unfair. Fairbanks received nothing through its implementation have had mixed re- provided some wiggle room for smaller through that period, some airlines may decision to back down, the Interna- The controversy concerns the agen- the formula, while Juneau realized the sults. As more and more weaknesses in airlines but has largely kept to the letter have discovered a workaround. tional Association of Machinists and cy’s handling of $1.85 billion that was $17.5 million maximum award. Such lo- the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Eco- of the law, only oŽ ering substantial fl ex- While keeping to the letter of the Aerospace Workers (IAM) is looking allocated based on an airport’s ratio of cal disparities, replicated in numerous nomic Security (CARES) Act emerge, ibility in situations where small carriers law, a trio of U.S. carriers have opted to repeat the feat at Delta and JetBlue, unrestricted cash versus debt service. regions across the country, risk throw- fast and fair solutions are needed to look to halt fl ying to large hub cities. to cull schedules instead of pay rates, both of which have instituted similar The upshot is that many smaller air- ing the sector’s competitive balance address the myriad problems created But still, airlines struggling to hold on leading airline unions and members of policies for their workers. IAM o‰ cials ports with some cash and little to no into disarray. in its wake. to cash say more needs to be done. Congress to cry foul. allege Delta is also forcing workers to debt achieved excessively high ratios For its part, the FAA insists that the Chief among them is the law’s rigid In the meantime, carriers such as The latest fl ash point over the em- take fewer paid hours per week, while and huge payouts under the formula, funds were allocated as intended and service mandate, which requires air- Spirit Airlines and Alaska Airlines are ployment terms erupted on May 5, JetBlue employees have to take 24 while their midsize and larger counter- in accordance with the CARES Act, lines receiving aid to keep fl ying to all getting creative to meet their flying when three unions representing em- days of unpaid leave between now and parts with more debt on their balance arguing that the number of enplaned domestic markets in their prepandem- commitments, operating nearly emp- ployees at United Airlines sued the Sept. 30. sheets received only modest payments. passengers is just one of several factors ic schedules. Not surprisingly, this rule ty aircraft on unusual triangle routes company in federal court over a plan The two airlines do not see it that An example of the skewed effects used to assess airports’ fi nancial needs is forcing carriers to waste badly need- and multistop tag routes to ensure they to force thousands of frontline work- way. A Delta spokesperson notes that caused by the ratio’s application is under the law. ed cash fl ying near-empty aircraft to touch every point once. Others such as ers from full-time to part-time status, pay rates have not come down and Merrill Field Airport in Anchorage, “These funds are not standard [Air- destinations with little or no demand. Delta Air Lines and JetBlue Airways translating to an across-the-board 25% said the company wants employees to Alaska. The small general aviation air- port Improvement Program] grants,” The purpose of the mandate was to are consolidating operations at metro pay cut. As union members flooded spend more time away from work to port, with 10,000 annual enplanements, an FAA spokesperson explained. “The ensure all communities maintain ade- regions across the country, when per- congressional o¥ ces with complaints, care for themselves and families during reported just $200 in unrestricted cash CARES Act requires funds be allocated quate connectivity through the depths mitted to do so. lawmakers began to take notice. the pandemic. A JetBlue spokesman, and nothing in the way of debt service, based on a formula that refl ects debt of the COVID-19 pandemic. But that But is there a better way? The Trans- “It was not the intention of Congress meanwhile, points out that the CARES smashing through the cap imposed by service, unrestricted airport reserves goal could have been achieved without portation Department has repeatedly that recipients of this taxpayer money Act covers only 76% of carriers’ payroll the FAA and netting an automatic $17.5 and enplanements. Some airports will imposing a stiŽ economic burden when dismissed an industry-backed proposal would then turn around and disguise costs, stating that “with little new cash million—enough to cover the next 9.4 receive more money than others, de- airline revenue has virtually collapsed. that would allow airlines to meet the pay reductions by cutting hours,” revenue coming in to JetBlue, we are years of operating expenses. spite having fewer enplanements.” “Make no mistake, as the duration of requirement through temporary code- Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) wrote United taking actions that will help us pre- Contrast that with Ted Stevens An- The agency has partially walked this pandemic lingers, the reasonabili- sharing arrangements. For example, CEO Oscar Munoz in a May 1 letter. serve jobs when the payroll support chorage International Airport, Alaska’s back some of the most exorbitant ty and practicality of this requirement United Airlines could continue fl ying As the backlash grew, United took funding ends.” largest with 2.6 million enplanements awards, informing airports all grant signifi cantly diminishes,” Airlines for to T.F. Green Airport in Providence, steps to defuse tensions, partially With conflicts raging over the is- in 2018. With $70,000 in unrestricted money must be used within four years America (A4A) President and CEO walking back the policy, announced sue at three airlines, the Treasury cash and $390,000 in debt, the airport and only for essential operating ex- Nicholas Calio told lawmakers at a May Carriers want relief from just days earlier, on May 6. In a letter Department cannot issue guidelines penses. Still, many airport executives 9 hearing of the Senate Commerce, Sci- a federal requirement to to employees, the company said it was fast enough to clear up the confusion believe even four years of paid expens- ence and Transportation Committee. scrapping the hours-reduction plan, over what kind of payroll-reduction ac- es for some airports is too much, warn- maintain service to all “Carriers and communities alike are ing that airports with lower operating going to have to come together and domestic markets. costs have numerous levers to pull to acknowledge the footprint and fre- gain an unfair advantage in the market- quency of service in 2019 cannot con- place for airline customers, especially vey to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic when it comes to items such as waiving reality,” he added. fees for cash-strapped carriers. While problematic for all airlines, “There were 413 airports on that the service mandate has had the most list, and the moment they allocated severe impact on the country’s smallest those funds, 111 got a disproportionate carriers, many of which have appealed share and 300 airports were dealt an repeatedly to the Transportation De- unfair competitive disadvantage,” says partment for relief. Melinda Crawford, executive director Their reasoning is straightforward: of the Charlottesville Albemarle Air- Although legacy carriers with high- port Authority in Virginia. “Was the frequency hub-and-spoke networks CARES Act really ever written to fl oat can afford to maintain connectivity, an airport for four years?” c JE SENSENETT IMAES

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 2 COMMERCIAL AVIATION MITSISI

M100 Suspension Alters Regional Jet Market Dynamics Again > MITSUBISHI SHELVES THE M100; MORE DELAYS LOOM FOR THE M90 The M90 was launched in 2008 as the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. > EMBRAER PONDERS E175-E2 FLIGHT-TEST SCHEDULE REVISION It is now in  ight testing.

Bradley Perrett Beijing and Jens Flottau Frankfurt

short three years ago, the deal to acquire its commercial air- Unlike the proposed M100, Em- world of regional jets consist- craft business, sending Embraer into braer’s 175-E2 does not comply A ed of four established players. shock mode and forcing it to rethink with U.S. scope clauses, though the Bombardier and Embraer were com- its future strategy from the bottom fi rst-generation E175 does. A combi- peting in the traditional segment up up, a process that is ongoing. Then, nation of factors—a more modern to 100 seats and adding the larger just days after management had be- competitor coming to the market C Series and E2, respectively, at the gun to consider its options, anoth- much later (or never), the lack of top end of the range. They were ex- er announcement sent shockwaves movement on scope clauses and the pecting to see new competition from through the industry, changing the current COVID-19-induced commer- what was then called the Mitsubishi competitive landscape again. Mitsu- cial pressures—could lead Embraer Regional Jet (MRJ) in the not-too- bishi Heavy Industries (MHI) decided to conclude that it is prudent to also distant future. And it was compe- to suspend development of the M100 delay introduction of the E175-E2, tition they took quite seriously, un- version of the SpaceJet regional jet as which is currently in fl ight testing. like with the Chinese ARJ21 which one measure to stanch the cash bleed Following cancellation of an earli- constituted a barrier for exports to from the program. er order from SkyWest Airlines, there China at most. MHI CEO Seiji Izumisawa an- are no orders for the type anyway. By early 2020, the sector had nounced suspension of work on the And airlines that could operate the changed dramatically. The C Series M100 during a briefing on financial E175-E2, particularly in Europe, have had become the more successful Air- results on May 11. Plans for the ver- much to consider these days. Order- bus A220. Embraer Commercial Air- sion will be reconsidered during the ing new aircraft is not on that list. craft was weeks from being acquired suspension, he says. Intended for the Stretching out what is left of its by Boeing, a move management con- North American market, the M100 program is something Mitsubishi is sidered vital for its long-term survival was designed to offer an optimal also considering, given the circum- in competition against the behemoth combination of range and seating stances. In its results announce- Airbus. Bombardier had agreed to within the weight limits that the ment, MHI seemed to hint at the sell the CRJ business to Mitsubishi, scope clauses of major U.S. airlines possibility of deliberately slowing which looked set to become a more impose on aircraft operated by re- down M90 testing. As one of its re- serious player, given the new access gional affiliates. sponses to the COVID-19 pandemic, to a large customer base, product The SpaceJet has been under de- it listed “continuing detailed review support business guaranteeing sub- velopment since 2008 by Mitsubishi of the SpaceJet schedule in view of stantial revenues for years to come Aircraft, which is majority-owned by the severe market conditions fac- and added know-how. MHI. The type was at fi rst called the ing commercial aviation and test Since the beginning of May, every- MRJ. The MRJ90—seating 88 in an flight-related setbacks.” thing has changed once more. Board- all-economy arrangement—became MHI did not detail those setbacks, room chairs must have felt as if they the M90 in June 2019, when the for- but the pandemic has interrupted were on roller coasters, particularly mer 76-seat MRJ70 was dropped and work at the program’s fl ight-testing at Embraer. Boeing backed out of the was replaced by the 84-seat M100. base at Moses Lake, Washington.

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

MITSUBISHI MITSISI Deliveries of the first SpaceJet ver- That would obviously help with know- anese company’s own SpaceJet, but sion—the M90—will begin in fiscal how and logistics but not with access the marketing and support infra- 2021 or later, the company says, re - to a regional customer base. structure behind it—something the peating the wording it used three The CRJ operation will become SpaceJet program needed. Notably, months ago when announcing the lat- part of a new subsidiary called MHI the CRJ program also has long-estab- est delay to the protracted program. RJ Aviation Group (MHIRJ). Al - lished relationships with regional jet Another response to the pandemic though MHI is acquiring the type operators. will be “setting an appropriate bud- certificates for the CRJ, Bombar - MHIRJ will be based at Mirabel get considering challenging financial dier will keep the facility in Mirabel, and will perform maintenance, re - headwinds for MHI Group,” says MHI. Quebec, that has been making the furbishment, marketing and sales, Losses from SpaceJet develop - regional jet. Bombardier will con- MHI says. Its servicing and support ment drove the whole MHI indus - tinue to build the CRJ on behalf of activity will be provided for “the trial group into unprofitability for MHI until sometime in the second CRJ series aircraft and, eventually, the fiscal year beginning April 2019, half of 2020, when the backlog will for the Mitsubishi SpaceJet family according to its annual report. MHI be cleared, and the type will leave of next-generation regional jets.” expects further SpaceJet losses in production. Bombardier says it will MHIRJ service centers, support M100 Suspension Alters Regional fiscal 2020 will offset profits from also continue to supply components offices and parts depots will be in all its other operations, which range and spare parts to MHI. important aviation hubs in the U.S., Jet Market Dynamics Again from space launch to nuclear power Bombardier says it expects to re- Canada and Germany. to rail systems. ceive net proceeds of $550 million The Japanese group says the CRJ > MITSUBISHI SHELVES THE M100; MORE DELAYS LOOM FOR THE M90 The M90 was launched in 2008 The company expects to lose ¥110- as the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. 130 billion ($1-1.2 billion) on the Space- > EMBRAER PONDERS E175-E2 FLIGHT-TEST SCHEDULE REVISION It is now in  ight testing. Jet in fiscal 2020. Since the program will be earning little or no revenue, Bradley Perrett Beijing and Jens Flottau Frankfurt that figure should be close to the cost of development for the year. In fiscal short three years ago, the deal to acquire its commercial air- Unlike the proposed M100, Em- 2019, the loss was ¥263.3 billion, but world of regional jets consist- craft business, sending Embraer into braer’s 175-E2 does not comply that included impairment losses of A ed of four established players. shock mode and forcing it to rethink with U.S. scope clauses, though the about ¥130 billion. In the year before Bombardier and Embraer were com- its future strategy from the bottom fi rst-generation E175 does. A combi- that, the loss was ¥85.2 billion. The peting in the traditional segment up up, a process that is ongoing. Then, nation of factors—a more modern company has been spending on en- to 100 seats and adding the larger just days after management had be- competitor coming to the market gineering, building additional proto- C Series and E2, respectively, at the gun to consider its options, anoth- much later (or never), the lack of types and flight testing. top end of the range. They were ex- er announcement sent shockwaves movement on scope clauses and the The interruption of flight testing pecting to see new competition from through the industry, changing the current COVID-19-induced commer- at Moses Lake came just as the pro- what was then called the Mitsubishi competitive landscape again. Mitsu- cial pressures—could lead Embraer gram’s crucial sixth prototype became Regional Jet (MRJ) in the not-too- bishi Heavy Industries (MHI) decided to conclude that it is prudent to also available. This aircraft conforms to distant future. And it was compe- to suspend development of the M100 delay introduction of the E175-E2, the new, certifiable design—the re-

tition they took quite seriously, un- version of the SpaceJet regional jet as which is currently in fl ight testing. sult of changes that Mitsubishi Air- EMBRAER like with the Chinese ARJ21 which one measure to stanch the cash bleed Following cancellation of an earli- craft realized in 2016 were necessary. constituted a barrier for exports to from the program. er order from SkyWest Airlines, there Mitsubishi Aircraft has expected this China at most. MHI CEO Seiji Izumisawa an- are no orders for the type anyway. aircraft to carry most of the burden By early 2020, the sector had nounced suspension of work on the And airlines that could operate the of the remaining flight testing, with changed dramatically. The C Series M100 during a briefing on financial E175-E2, particularly in Europe, have two more aircraft of the same design had become the more successful Air- results on May 11. Plans for the ver- much to consider these days. Order- to be used mainly for ground testing. The Embraer 175-E2 flew for the first time in December 2019. With no firm bus A220. Embraer Commercial Air- sion will be reconsidered during the ing new aircraft is not on that list. These and the first five prototypes orders in place, the flight-test schedule is under review. craft was weeks from being acquired suspension, he says. Intended for the Stretching out what is left of its are all built to the M90 standard. The by Boeing, a move management con- North American market, the M100 program is something Mitsubishi is type is powered by the Pratt & Whit- from the sale. MHI intends in fiscal program will be operated “under” sidered vital for its long-term survival was designed to offer an optimal also considering, given the circum- ney PW1200G engine. 2020 to write down the full ¥50-70 MHIRJ, implying that it will be only in competition against the behemoth combination of range and seating stances. In its results announce- In spite of the turmoil around the billion value of goodwill and assets part of the sales and support sub - Airbus. Bombardier had agreed to within the weight limits that the ment, MHI seemed to hint at the SpaceJet, Mitsubishi is nonetheless acquired and liabilities assumed sidiary, presumably alongside the sell the CRJ business to Mitsubishi, scope clauses of major U.S. airlines possibility of deliberately slowing pressing ahead with acquisition of with the deal, “since it is difficult to equivalent operation that Mitsubishi which looked set to become a more impose on aircraft operated by re- down M90 testing. As one of its re- Bombardier’s CRJ program, which estimate the cash flow in the future Aircraft has already set up for the serious player, given the new access gional affiliates. sponses to the COVID-19 pandemic, will become an MHI marketing and for the SpaceJet business at present.” SpaceJet. to a large customer base, product The SpaceJet has been under de- it listed “continuing detailed review support unit on June 1, eventually The write-down will happen in fiscal Bombardier says it delivered five support business guaranteeing sub- velopment since 2008 by Mitsubishi of the SpaceJet schedule in view of backing the SpaceJet. Some observ- 2020; the figure is presumably part CRJs in the first quarter of 2020. It stantial revenues for years to come Aircraft, which is majority-owned by the severe market conditions fac- ers have questioned whether the of the ¥110-130 billion SpaceJet loss also expects to close the planned sale and added know-how. MHI. The type was at fi rst called the ing commercial aviation and test novel coronavirus crisis could lead expected for the year. of its aerostructure businesses in Bel- Since the beginning of May, every- MRJ. The MRJ90—seating 88 in an flight-related setbacks.” the company to reconsider the deal When Bombardier and MHI an- fast, Northern Ireland, and Morocco thing has changed once more. Board- all-economy arrangement—became MHI did not detail those setbacks, and back out of it, as Boeing has at nounced the intended transaction in to Spirit AeroSystems. room chairs must have felt as if they the M90 in June 2019, when the for- but the pandemic has interrupted Embraer. Furthermore, Boeing CEO June 2019, it was clear that the prize Embraer handed over five com- were on roller coasters, particularly mer 76-seat MRJ70 was dropped and work at the program’s fl ight-testing David Calhoun indicated he would be for MHI was not the CRJ, a fading mercial jets in the first quarter: three at Embraer. Boeing backed out of the was replaced by the 84-seat M100. base at Moses Lake, Washington. open to partnering with Mitsubishi. product that competed with the Jap- E175s, one E190-E2 and one E195-E2. c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 31 MAINTENANCE, REPAIR AND OVERHAUL

Grounded Fleet Triggers about 75% year-over-year for the last several weeks. Pratt & Whitney parent Aftermarket Hard Landing Raytheon Technologies’ unofficial pro- jection of a 50% drop in commercial > AFTERMARKET WILL SEE NEAR-TERM DECLINE OF MORE THAN 50% aftermarket business in 2020 includes even more dire year-over-year figures > LONGER-TERM TRENDS HINGE ON ACTIVITY for April and May, as customers with long-term agreements keep aircraft on Sean Broderick Washington and Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago the ground and repair-shop inductions plummet. he demand-sapping ripple ef- with Safran. While that pales in com- “If you look and take a snapshot fects of the novel coronavirus parison to the more than 90% dip in of where we are today, obviously af- Tand COVID-19 pandemic have global airline flight activity, MRO is a termarket is going to be down a lot reached aviation maintenance facil- lagging indicator. Early second-quar- more in April and May than the 50%,” ities, quickly reversing one of the in- ter trend data has GE and CFM global Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes says. dustry’s steadiest trends. shop visits, which totaled 5,400 for all The newly combined mega-supplier Before the pandemic hit, most main- of 2019, falling 60% year-over-year. The Raytheon Technologies—composed of tenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) reason is simple: The less an aircraft the former entities Raytheon Co. and shops were full, and the sector’s full- flies, the less often it needs work. For United Technologies—says that repair year pace was on target to surpass manufacturers and many service pro- input at its Collins Aerospace subsid- mid-to-high-single-digit growth rates viders alike, the result is either less iary was down 55% in April. The drop of recent years. This was especially cash now or waiting longer to get paid. was even more severe within Pratt, as true in the lucrative engine overhaul Engine manufacturers are fond engine shop visits fell 70% after a rel- atively routine first quarter. Raytheon is estimating that full-year aftermarket SAFRAN revenues will fall roughly in line with global traffic, which the International Air Transport Association is project- ing will decline 48%. Much like everything else amid the pandemic, the commercial aftermar- ket recovery’s pace and strength re- main unpredictable. But the market will bounce back, so long as there are aircraft flying. CFM points out that more than 60% of the 30,000 CFM56s in service have not had the first of what is usually at least three scheduled life- time shop visits. While some mainte- nance can be pushed out, deferring major shop visit costs by breaking up work is not seen as a cost-effective long-term approach. “If you cut [an engine overhaul] in Engine shop inductions have fallen quickly as airlines have stopped spending cash. pieces, it’s going to cost you 20% or 30% more than if you can do it all at once,” segment, which the Aviation Week of long-term agreements that take says Safran CEO Philippe Petitcolin, Network Commercial MRO Forecast two basic forms: per-flight-hour and citing costs such as labor and leases projected would make up 43% of 2020’s per-overhaul. Both offer predictable for replacement engines incurred each forecast $82 billion in total MRO costs over the contract’s life. The pri- time an engine is removed. “You are spend. Most engine shops were booked mary difference: Flight-hour deals are going to do a full shop visit over a pe- for months, and used parts were hard paid regularly, while overhauls are riod of 18 months [to] two years, but to find for many platforms—an added paid for when the work is done. you will have to do it. When it’s time, boost for new-parts suppliers. GE is projecting a 50% drop in long- it’s time, and nobody plays with that.” Due to that momentum, the pan- term agreement revenue for the first While repairs must go on, a down- demic’s near-term ramifications on quarter of 2020, implying fleet activity turn that creates a pool of surplus air- MRO are only now beginning to come at roughly half of 2019’s first-quarter craft reshapes the aftermarket land- into focus. The picture is not pretty. levels. While that constitutes a major scape. A recent Aviation Week poll GE Aviation reported global shop drop, many airlines in the current en- found that 74% of respondents—all of visits for its engines were down low- vironment would welcome activity lev- them airline operators or aftermarket double-digit figures in the first quarter els matching 50% of their 2019 output. services providers—expect airlines to of 2020, including CFM56s produced GE’s own figures show total CFM-pow- start sourcing components from their under its 50-50 CFM joint venture ered departures have been down parked aircraft, a daunting prospect

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MAINTENANCE, REPAIR AND OVERHAUL

Grounded Fleet Triggers about 75% year-over-year for the last for both manufacturers and used ser- at Contrail Aviation Leasing. “So this objective of keeping aircraft flying. several weeks. Pratt & Whitney parent viceable materials (USM) providers. is a big shot in the arm for [older plat- Buried inside the Collins Aerospace Aftermarket Hard Landing Raytheon Technologies’ unofficial pro- “If you have a fleet of 100 aircraft [of forms such as] the Boeing 767 and unit of Raytheon Technologies is jection of a 50% drop in commercial the same type] and you stop flying 50, 747, and the engine types that power Intertrade, one of the industry’s most > AFTERMARKET WILL SEE NEAR-TERM DECLINE OF MORE THAN 50% aftermarket business in 2020 includes then why would you buy parts if you them,” he adds, singling out GE CF6- established USM businesses. Started even more dire year-over-year figures have those airplanes grounded?” asks 80C2B powerplants in particular. in 1969 with a focus on repairing and > LONGER-TERM TRENDS HINGE ON ACTIVITY for April and May, as customers with Derk-Jan van Heerden, CEO of AELS, As airlines get increasingly conser- reselling Collins avionics, the business long-term agreements keep aircraft on an end-of-life aircraft specialist. vative on MRO spending, from seeking now deals in airframe, engine and com- Sean Broderick Washington and Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago the ground and repair-shop inductions While parked aircraft make an out alternatives for new parts to delay- ponent parts for products both with- plummet. attrac tive source for harvesting parts, ing some overhaul work, opportunities in and outside the Raytheon family. he demand-sapping ripple ef- with Safran. While that pales in com- “If you look and take a snapshot the scenario may only come into play will emerge for USM traders and parts Intertrade is linked with a network of fects of the novel coronavirus parison to the more than 90% dip in of where we are today, obviously af- if there are no better options for the manufacturer approval providers. But more than 100 shops and six former Tand COVID-19 pandemic have global airline flight activity, MRO is a termarket is going to be down a lot assets. top-tier suppliers will not be left out. stand-alone manufacturers that were reached aviation maintenance facil- lagging indicator. Early second-quar- more in April and May than the 50%,” “Airline CEOs and [chief financial While the used-parts world may rolled up into Collins Aerospace—con- ities, quickly reversing one of the in- ter trend data has GE and CFM global Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes says. officers] simply aren’t going to allow conjure up visions of small-time sup- nections that provide a leg up on many dustry’s steadiest trends. shop visits, which totaled 5,400 for all The newly combined mega-supplier that,” says Jason Reed, president of pliers working with fringe operators, competitors. Intertrade can source Before the pandemic hit, most main- of 2019, falling 60% year-over-year. The Raytheon Technologies—composed of the Component Solutions Group at the reality is much different. Not only parts and have them ready to sell with tenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) reason is simple: The less an aircraft the former entities Raytheon Co. and GA Telesis. “They’re going to get rid is the practice of sourcing second- minimal reliance on vendors. The end shops were full, and the sector’s full- flies, the less often it needs work. For United Technologies—says that repair of aircraft now. They need the liquidity hand material a common occurrence result, ideally, is lowering both internal year pace was on target to surpass manufacturers and many service pro- input at its Collins Aerospace subsid- for that full engine and airframe. Then, for airlines of all sizes, but manufac- and customer costs. mid-to-high-single-digit growth rates viders alike, the result is either less iary was down 55% in April. The drop they’re going to go to the used [parts] turers are also some of the biggest “That’s something I anticipate In- of recent years. This was especially cash now or waiting longer to get paid. was even more severe within Pratt, as market even more.” USM consumers. As OEMs embrace tertrade doing more of: funneling our true in the lucrative engine overhaul Engine manufacturers are fond engine shop visits fell 70% after a rel- Another shift that will breathe more long-term, fixed-price service agree- repairs of used material inside instead atively routine first quarter. Raytheon life into the USM market: the surging ments, they assume financial risk. of out to third-party repair shops,” says is estimating that full-year aftermarket demand for cargo lift. Funneling used parts into their shops Intertrade Director Shawn Bergquist. SAFRAN revenues will fall roughly in line with “What is flying is pretty much car- for use on customer equipment low- “We have a very diverse set of offerings. global traffic, which the International go only,” says Steve Williamson, vice ers the OEM’s costs while allowing How we manage through this with cus- Air Transport Association is project- president of acquisitions and trading it to satisfy the ultimate contractual tomers is what they will remember.” c ing will decline 48%. Much like everything else amid the pandemic, the commercial aftermar- ket recovery’s pace and strength re- main unpredictable. But the market will bounce back, so long as there are MILITARY AVIATION aircraft flying. CFM points out that more than 60% of the 30,000 CFM56s LOGISTICS & MAINTENANCE in service have not had the first of what SYMPOSIUM (MALMS) is usually at least three scheduled life- time shop visits. While some mainte- nance can be pushed out, deferring major shop visit costs by breaking up September 2-3, 2020 • Dallas, TX work is not seen as a cost-effective long-term approach. “If you cut [an engine overhaul] in Engine shop inductions have fallen quickly as airlines have stopped spending cash. pieces, it’s going to cost you 20% or 30% more than if you can do it all at once,” segment, which the Aviation Week of long-term agreements that take says Safran CEO Philippe Petitcolin, Joint collaboration across military and industry will ensure the Network Commercial MRO Forecast two basic forms: per-flight-hour and citing costs such as labor and leases operational readiness of military aircraft. Discuss logistics, maintenance projected would make up 43% of 2020’s per-overhaul. Both offer predictable for replacement engines incurred each forecast $82 billion in total MRO costs over the contract’s life. The pri- time an engine is removed. “You are and sustainment solutions with military aviation leaders. spend. Most engine shops were booked mary difference: Flight-hour deals are going to do a full shop visit over a pe- for months, and used parts were hard paid regularly, while overhauls are riod of 18 months [to] two years, but Keynote: Roberto BG Linda Hurry to find for many platforms—an added paid for when the work is done. you will have to do it. When it’s time, Bruce Litchfi eld Guerrero Director of Logistics boost for new-parts suppliers. GE is projecting a 50% drop in long- it’s time, and nobody plays with that.” VP & GM Sustainment Deputy Assistant DCS/Logistics, Engineering & Force Due to that momentum, the pan- term agreement revenue for the first While repairs must go on, a down- Operations, Secretary of the Lockheed Martin Air Force, Protection, USAF demic’s near-term ramifications on quarter of 2020, implying fleet activity turn that creates a pool of surplus air- Aeronautics Company Operational Energy MRO are only now beginning to come at roughly half of 2019’s first-quarter craft reshapes the aftermarket land- into focus. The picture is not pretty. levels. While that constitutes a major scape. A recent Aviation Week poll GE Aviation reported global shop drop, many airlines in the current en- found that 74% of respondents—all of visits for its engines were down low- vironment would welcome activity lev- them airline operators or aftermarket Registration is FREE for active, uniformed service men and women • Co-Located with MRO Americas double-digit figures in the first quarter els matching 50% of their 2019 output. services providers—expect airlines to Register at militarylogistics.aviationweek.com of 2020, including CFM56s produced GE’s own figures show total CFM-pow- start sourcing components from their #MALMS | under its 50-50 CFM joint venture ered departures have been down parked aircraft, a daunting prospect

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 33 DEFENSE > Extended-range THAAD p. 36 New South Korean missile p. 37 Boeing ATS rollout p. 38 Finnish fighter competition p. 42 New Chinese trainer p. 45 USAF’s Agility Prime p. 46

TO About the X-37B The X-37B is derived from NASA’s orig- inal X-37 program, which ran from BACK ORBIT 1999 until September 2004, when it was transferred to DARPA. Initial low- speed/low-altitude tests were conducted by NASA from 1998 to 2001 using the X-40A, a subscale version of the X-37 de- veloped by the Air Force Research Labo- ratory. Following the transition of the pro- gram to DARPA, a series of captive-carry and drop tests of the Boeing-built X-37A were conducted in 2005-06. The success of these demonstrations led to the U.S. Air Force’s decision to launch the X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle program, which was announced in November 2006.

To date, the Air Force has flown five X-37B missions (OTV-1 through OTV-5) beginning with its first launch on April 22, 2010, from Cape Canaveral AFS. OTV-1 through OTV-3 all landed at Vandenberg AFB, California, while the most recent missions, OTV-4 and OTV-5, landed at Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The first five OTV missions have spent a total of 2,865 days on orbit.

X-37B General Characteristics Primary Mission: Experimental test vehicle Prime Contractor: Boeing Height ...... 9 ft . 6 in . (2 .9 m) Length ...... 29 ft . 3 in . (8 .9 m) Wingspan ...... 14 ft . 11 in . (4 .5 m) Launch Weight . . . . . 11,000 lb . (4,990 kg) Power ...... Gallium arsenide solar cells with lithium-ion batteries Launch Vehicles . . . . . ULA Atlas V (501), Space X Falcon 9 Source: U.S. Air Force

BOEING > X-37B SERVICE MODULE DEBUTS TEST TO CONVERT, BEAM SOLAR ENERGY PLANNED The sixth mission of the X-37B > Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV-6) is preparing to launch from Lee Hudson Washington and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral Cape Canaveral.

hile the U.S. aerospace industry is being hit hard by travel curtailed in an effort to stem the the coronavirus pandemic, the Pentagon is pushing spread of novel coronavirus COVID-19. ahead with its goal of making reusable space vehi- “I suspect we will be under some form of restriction at least through Wcles more affordable by launching an X-37B Orbital June 30,” Brig. Gen. Doug Schiess, 45th Test Vehicle for a sixth mission. Space Wing commander, tells Aviation Week. “We’re doing a measured ap- This will be the inaugural U.S. Atlas V from Cape Canaveral AFS proach . . . as we continue to work with Space Force (USSF) launch of the on May 16. It will be only the third state, city and county leaders to release X-37B, which was scheduled to lift U.S. space launch since work sites restrictions. These things change so off aboard a United Launch Alliance nationwide have been shut down and fast, it’s kind of hard to tell.”

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > Extended-range THAAD p. 36 New South Korean missile p. 37 Boeing ATS rollout p. 38 Finnish fighter competition p. 42 New Chinese trainer p. 45 USAF’s Agility Prime p. 46 Previous X-37B Missions TO About the X-37B Flight Vehicle Launch date Landing date Launcher Mission Duration Notes The X-37B is derived from NASA’s orig- OTV-1 1 April 22, Dec. 3, Atlas V 501 212 224 days, • First launch of Atlas V inal X-37 program, which ran from 2010 2010 9 hr. 501 configuration • First autonomous orbital BACK ORBIT 1999 until September 2004, when it runway landing in U.S. was transferred to DARPA. Initial low- • First X-37B flight speed/low-altitude tests were conducted by NASA from 1998 to 2001 using the OTV-2 2 March 5, June 16, Atlas V 501 226 468 days, • First flight of second 2011 2012 14 hr. X-37B X-40A, a subscale version of the X-37 de- veloped by the Air Force Research Labo- OTV-3 1 Dec.11, Oct. 17, Atlas V 501 240 674 days, • Second flight of first ratory. Following the transition of the pro- 2012 2014 22 hr. X-37B gram to DARPA, a series of captive-carry OTV-4 2 May 20, May 7, Atlas V 501 261 717 days, • Second flight of second and drop tests of the Boeing-built X-37A 2015 2017 20 hr. X-37B were conducted in 2005-06. The success OTV-5* Unknown Sept. 7, Oct. 27, Falcon 9 277 779 days, • First launch of an X-37B of these demonstrations led to the U.S. 2017 2019 17 hr. on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Air Force’s decision to launch the X-37B • Longest X-37B mission Orbital Test Vehicle program, which was *Believed to have been flown using vehicle No. 2 announced in November 2006. In addition to the X-37B launch, seeds used to grow food. The second could shift how people think about To date, the Air Force has flown five designated USSF-7, two SpaceX study will use a materials sample plate generating power as well as lay a foun- X-37B missions (OTV-1 through OTV-5) launches, including the Demo-2 to determine the results of radiation dation for continuous unmanned flight. beginning with its first launch on April 22, crewed flight test to the Internation- and other space phenomena on vari- “The Space Force dedicated this 2010, from Cape Canaveral AFS. OTV-1 [upcoming] flight to the nation’s first through OTV-3 all landed at Vandenberg al Space Station for NASA, are on ous materials. The NRL wants to test AFB, California, while the most recent the Eastern Range calendar for May. the ability to transform solar power into responders and front-line profes- missions, OTV-4 and OTV-5, landed at Those launches are expected to be fol- microwave energy that would then be sionals who keep America strong,” Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The lowed by a GPS-3 launch on a SpaceX transmitted to the ground, Russell says. Barrett said. first five OTV missions have spent a total Falcon 9 on June 30 and another ULA Microwave beaming technology Like previous X-37B flights, the of 2,865 days on orbit. Atlas V launch with NASA’s Mars has implications for long-endurance expected mission duration of OTV-6 2020 rover on July 17. unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), has not been announced. The X-37B The X-37B mission, the sixth in a the NRL noted in a May 8 report ref- is designed for an on-orbit duration X-37B General Characteristics series of Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV) erenced on The War Zone website. Ad- of 270 days, but longer missions have Primary Mission: Experimental test vehicle flights that began in April 2010, will ditionally, the technology could allow been demonstrated. To date, the Air Prime Contractor: Boeing further develop the concept of oper- satellites to provide reliable power to Force’s two reusable OTV spacecraft ations for reusable space vehicles, Earth and other spacecraft in orbit. have completed a total of five missions, Height ...... 9 ft . 6 in . (2 .9 m) while simultaneously fine-tuning tech- The use of microwave beaming tech- with a cumulative time in orbit of 2,865 Length ...... 29 ft . 3 in . (8 .9 m) nical parameters for an affordable, nology would provide military installa- days. Individual mission durations have Wingspan ...... 14 ft . 11 in . (4 .5 m) reusable space vehicle, Space Force tions in austere locations an alternative ranged from 224 to 779 days. Launch Weight . . . . . 11,000 lb . (4,990 kg) spokesman Maj. William Russell tells to relying on low-power solar energy Most of the details surrounding the Power ...... Gallium arsenide solar cells Aviation Week. systems or transporting generators X-37B program are classified. The Air with lithium-ion batteries The Air Force’s Rapid Capabilities and large amounts of fuel. Instead, Force has said the program is intended Launch Vehicles . . . . . ULA Atlas V (501), Office is working with the Air Force military personnel could pack a rectify- to demonstrate technologies for a reli- ing antenna to capture energy beamed able, reusable and uncrewed space test Space X Falcon 9 Research Laboratory—and now the U.S. Space Force—to execute a mis- from orbiting satellites. Rectifying an- platform for the military. The Pentagon Source: U.S. Air Force sion that maximizes the X-37B’s unique tennas, also referred to as rectennas, does not only want the X-37B to prove capabilities, Air Force Secretary convert high power-density microwave a reusable autonomous spacecraft can BOEING Barbara Barrett said May 6 during a energy to DC electrical power. return to Earth, but it also wants the > X-37B SERVICE MODULE DEBUTS Space Foundation event. Lightening the load and moving avionics, flight systems, guidance and For example, OTV-6 will be the first away from consuming vast amounts of navigation, thermal protection, insula- > TEST TO CONVERT, BEAM SOLAR ENERGY PLANNED The sixth mission of the X-37B time an X-37B is outfitted with a ser- fuel is something the Marine Corps has tion, propulsion and reentry systems Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV-6) is vice module to host experiments. The targeted for years. The upcoming test to remain intact. preparing to launch from service module, which is attached to is not the first time researchers have “A number of lessons learned have Lee Hudson Washington and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral Cape Canaveral. the aft end of the vehicle, allows addi- studied using power-beaming to extend been incorporated into both refur- tional experimental payload capability the flight time of small UAS. bishment and the concept of oper - hile the U.S. aerospace industry is being hit hard by travel curtailed in an effort to stem the to be carried to orbit. In 2012, Lockheed Martin kept a ations for the vehicle,” Russell says. the coronavirus pandemic, the Pentagon is pushing spread of novel coronavirus COVID-19. The Defense Department is disclos- Stalker aloft for 48 hr. by beaming “These improvements aided in the ahead with its goal of making reusable space vehi- “I suspect we will be under some ing details of three experiments the laser power to a photovoltaic array checkout of the vehicle, the expansion form of restriction at least through normally classified X-37B program on the small electric UAS. In NRL’s of launch providers, landing corridors Wcles more affordable by launching an X-37B Orbital June 30,” Brig. Gen. Doug Schiess, 45th will perform during the upcoming mis- concept, UAS would be outfitted with and landing sites, and more efficient Test Vehicle for a sixth mission. Space Wing commander, tells Aviation sion. The robotic, reusable spaceplane, rectennas to capture the microwave and flexible integration, launch and Week. “We’re doing a measured ap- manufactured by Boeing, will host two energy beamed from space and use landing timelines.” This will be the inaugural U.S. Atlas V from Cape Canaveral AFS proach . . . as we continue to work with experiments for NASA and one for the it to power otherwise conventional X-37B vehicles have previously Space Force (USSF) launch of the on May 16. It will be only the third state, city and county leaders to release Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). propulsion systems. launched four times aboard ULA X-37B, which was scheduled to lift U.S. space launch since work sites restrictions. These things change so The first NASA experiment will as- The NRL says its experiment aboard Atlas V rockets and once on a SpaceX off aboard a United Launch Alliance nationwide have been shut down and fast, it’s kind of hard to tell.” sess how the space environment affects the X-37B flying the OTV-6 mission Falcon 9. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 35 DEFENSE

MDA Revives Dormant Concept the new Aerojet booster. The existing THAAD canister has a 20-in. diame- for Extended-Range THAAD ter, so the extended-range version re- quired a new container and potentially > IMPROVED THAAD FLIGHT TEST IS SET FOR 2023 a new launching system. The MDA still prefers a new booster that fits > MDA OPEN TO A NEW LAUNCHER AND CANISTER within the existing THAAD canister, but larger rockets are “acceptable,” Steve Trimble Washington the agency’s solicitation says. The MDA also prefers a new booster that nearly 15-year-old concept to glide vehicles (HGV), Lockheed again is compatible with the existing KV. double the range and altitude dusted off the THAAD-ER concept in The MDA’s latest long-term spend- A performance of the Terminal early 2015. But the company’s public ing plan discloses no funding or pro- High-Altitude Area Defense intercep- campaign failed to win support from gram of record for a THAAD-ER, but tor has reemerged as a short-term the MDA to launch an estimated it is clear the agency is seeking a more option for the U.S. Missile Defense $1 billion development program. powerful interceptor. In addition to Agency (MDA). Now, however, the agency’s position seeking feedback on a larger booster, The revival of the Terminal High- appears to have shifted. In late April, Lockheed also awarded BAE Systems Altitude Area Defense Extended the MDA requested feedback from in- a contract in March to upgrade the Range (THAAD-ER) concept adds to dustry on options for demonstrating infrared seeker for the KV. the MDA’s options for a multilayered more powerful boosters than THAAD’s Moreover, an improved THAAD hypersonic defense system and poten- current 14-in.-dia. single-stage rocket. has been under study by the MDA for tially a new weapon to intercept inter- “The intent is to provide a booster nearly two years. In September 2018, the MDA awarded 21 concept-definition studies to multiple companies for a Hy- personic Defense Weapon System, then The MDA wants to double selected five of those for concept-refine- the range and altitude of the ment studies a year later. One of those THAAD interceptor. five studies is based on an interceptor concept submitted by Lockheed called the Valkyrie, which company officials have confirmed is an improved version LEAH GARTON/MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY of THAAD. The concept refinement studies were due to be completed this month. Lockheed deferred questions about the new solicitation to the MDA, which did not immediately respond to emailed questions. Although the MDA has discussed few details publicly, a picture of a multi layer hypersonic defense strat- egy has started to emerge. In addi- tion to demonstrating an improved THAAD within three years, the MDA continental ballistic missiles beyond that will increase the THAAD kill also has launched development of a the atmosphere. The proposed im- vehicle (KV) velocity at booster sep- new, purpose-built interceptor called provement, however, raises the possi- aration with a goal of increasing the the Regional Glide-Phase Weapon bility of a dramatic reinvention of Lock- KV range and altitude by a factor of at System (RGPWS). The latter is sched- heed Martin’s 30-year-old interceptor least two from the baseline,” the MDA uled to be deployed in the mid-2020s for intermediate-range missiles, with document states. or potentially 2-3 years after the im- perhaps a new launcher and canister The MDA also revealed plans to proved THAAD may be available. required to support a larger first-stage conduct the first two demonstration Industry officials have debated the booster and a kick stage. events for a new THAAD booster since merits of improving existing intercep- Lockheed started working on the 2006. A static fire test for a new boost- tors versus investing in a purpose-built technology for THAAD-ER in 2006, er would occur no later than the end system. Even if an improved THAAD commissioning propulsion subcon- of fiscal 2022. By the middle of fiscal or SM-3 is unable to directly inter- tractor Aerojet to demonstrate a new 2023, the agency also plans to perform cept a missile, the attempt can force 21-in.-dia. first-stage booster, along a flight test of the new booster paired the HGV to maneuver and bleed off with a new upper, or “kick,” stage, with with a real or mass-representative sur- energy. By making several intercept funding provided by internal research rogate THAAD KV, the agency says. attempts along the flight path, the and development accounts. Barely a One stumbling block for the MDA HGV loses speed and becomes more month after China successfully tested in Lockheed’s original THAAD-ER vulnerable to traditional interceptors the experimental WU-14 hypersonic proposal was the 21-in. diameter of in the terminal phase. c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

MDA Revives Dormant Concept the new Aerojet booster. The existing Latest South Korean Ballistic Missile 300 km to comply with a commitment THAAD canister has a 20-in. diame- to the U.S. at the time not to deploy bal- for Extended-Range THAAD ter, so the extended-range version re- Hurls Hefty Warhead listic missiles with greater range. The quired a new container and potentially 500-km range of the Hyunmoo 2B was > IMPROVED THAAD FLIGHT TEST IS SET FOR 2023 a new launching system. The MDA > PAYLOAD RISE FOLLOWS AMENDED AGREEMENT WITH U.S. later confirmed when the agreement still prefers a new booster that fits was loosened. > MDA OPEN TO A NEW LAUNCHER AND CANISTER within the existing THAAD canister, > BUNKER-BUSTING CAPABILITY REPORTED Why the Hyunmoo 4 has such a large but larger rockets are “acceptable,” warhead is undisclosed. Other coun- Steve Trimble Washington the agency’s solicitation says. The Kim Minseok Seoul and Bradley Perrett Beijing tries use smaller warheads on short- MDA also prefers a new booster that range ballistic missiles. The Russian nearly 15-year-old concept to glide vehicles (HGV), Lockheed again is compatible with the existing KV. range of 800 km (500 mi.) looks Yonhap. JoongAng Ilbo further reported Iskander has a payload of 480-700 kg double the range and altitude dusted off the THAAD-ER concept in The MDA’s latest long-term spend- pretty handy for a South Kore- the test failure. The tests used lofted and range of 400-500 km, according A performance of the Terminal early 2015. But the company’s public ing plan discloses no funding or pro- Aan surface-to-surface weapon. trajectories, JoongAng Ilbo says, mean- to the Center for Strategic and Inter- High-Altitude Area Defense intercep- campaign failed to win support from gram of record for a THAAD-ER, but And it happens to be the range of the ing the missiles flew higher than they national Studies in Washington. The tor has reemerged as a short-term the MDA to launch an estimated it is clear the agency is seeking a more country’s most recently reported ballis- would when maximizing range. As a Chinese DF-12 can throw 480 kg 280- option for the U.S. Missile Defense $1 billion development program. powerful interceptor. In addition to tic missile—enough to reach all targets result, the flights covered 400 km. 420 km. Agency (MDA). Now, however, the agency’s position seeking feedback on a larger booster, in North Korea from positions respect- South Korea limits its ballistic mis- South Korea’s first ballistic mis- The revival of the Terminal High- appears to have shifted. In late April, Lockheed also awarded BAE Systems fully distant from the border. sile capabilities by agreement with the sile was the NHK-1, adapted from the Altitude Area Defense Extended the MDA requested feedback from in- a contract in March to upgrade the The new weapon, the Hyunmoo 4, U.S. Until 2017, the warhead limit for a MIM-14 Nike Hercules surface-to-air Range (THAAD-ER) concept adds to dustry on options for demonstrating infrared seeker for the KV. represents a leap in South Korean capa- the MDA’s options for a multilayered more powerful boosters than THAAD’s Moreover, an improved THAAD bility. An earlier ballistic missile, the South Korean Tactical and Short-Range Ballistic Missiles hypersonic defense system and poten- current 14-in.-dia. single-stage rocket. has been under study by the MDA for Hyunmoo 2C, can also fly 800 km but Range* Payload Status Design tially a new weapon to intercept inter- “The intent is to provide a booster nearly two years. In September 2018, carries a warhead of only 500 kg (1,100 km (mi.) kg (lb.) the MDA awarded 21 concept-definition lb.) at that distance. The Hyunmoo 4 NHK-1 Retired 180 (110) 400 (880) Based on Nike Hercules studies to multiple companies for a Hy- can hurl 2,000 kg that far, according to personic Defense Weapon System, then widespread media reports. Hyunmoo 1 EIS 1980s 180 (110) 500 (1,100) Nike Hercules shape The MDA wants to double selected five of those for concept-refine- The extraordinary size of the payload Hyunmoo 2A EIS 2008 300 (190) 1,000 (2,200) 2A and 2B are one type the range and altitude of the ment studies a year later. One of those also raises the possibility that South Hyunmoo 2B EIS 2009 500 (310) 1,000 (2,200) Longer version of 2A THAAD interceptor. five studies is based on an interceptor Korea can modify the Hyunmoo 4 to concept submitted by Lockheed called carry a smaller payload much far- Hyunmoo 2C Flown 2017 800 (500) 500 (1,100) Larger than 2A, 2B the Valkyrie, which company officials ther, moving it from short to medium KTSSM** EIS 2020 165 (102) 560 (1,200) Unrelated to Hyunmoo series have confirmed is an improved version range (above 1,000 km), making more LEAH GARTON/MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY of THAAD. The concept refinement Chinese, Japanese or Russian targets Hyunmoo 4 Flown 2020 800 (500) 2,000 (4,400) No details studies were due to be completed this reachable. EIS = Entry into service. Sources: Media reports, photos, direct observation month. Lockheed deferred questions Two Hyunmoo 4s were test-flown on *Range with stated payload. about the new solicitation to the MDA, March 24, according to the media re- **Range and payload undisclosed but similar to MGM-140 Atacms data, which is stated here. which did not immediately respond to ports, obviously based on a government emailed questions. briefing. One shot failed. ballistic missile of 800-km range was missile and deployed in 1973; it has been Although the MDA has discussed Like all South Korean ballistic mis- 500 kg. U.S. President Donald Trump retired. The Hyunmoo 1, which entered few details publicly, a picture of a siles, the weapon is designed to be car- and South Korean President Moon service in the 1980s, used the Nike Her- multi layer hypersonic defense strat- ried by a mobile launcher, says a source Jae-in agreed in September 2017 that cules shape but differed internally; it is egy has started to emerge. In addi- who is familiar with the system but de- the throw weight limit would be re- still in service. A new, larger type en- tion to demonstrating an improved clines to give more details. moved; range still is limited to 800 km. tered service in 2008, the Hyunmoo 2A, THAAD within three years, the MDA Hanwha is the manufacturing con- That range has looked more useful since supplemented the following year by a continental ballistic missiles beyond that will increase the THAAD kill also has launched development of a tractor for the earlier missiles and so July 31, 2019, when South Korea said lengthened version, the Hyunmoo 2B. the atmosphere. The proposed im- vehicle (KV) velocity at booster sep- new, purpose-built interceptor called probably for the Hyunmoo 4. The de- North Korea had fired two missiles over The Hyunmoo 2C, test-flown in 2017, provement, however, raises the possi- aration with a goal of increasing the the Regional Glide-Phase Weapon fense ministry’s Agency for Defense a range of 250 km. A day later, North evidently is another new type, despite bility of a dramatic reinvention of Lock- KV range and altitude by a factor of at System (RGPWS). The latter is sched- Development leads development of Korea said the missiles were of the mul- its designation: Its launcher is longer heed Martin’s 30-year-old interceptor least two from the baseline,” the MDA uled to be deployed in the mid-2020s the weapons, a powerful but low-pro- tiple-launch rocket type and guided. than that of the Hyunmoo 2A and 2B, for intermediate-range missiles, with document states. or potentially 2-3 years after the im- file element of South Korean military This raised the possibility that North according to someone who has seen the perhaps a new launcher and canister The MDA also revealed plans to proved THAAD may be available. capability. Korea had an economical way of hitting vehicle, and a photograph suggests the required to support a larger first-stage conduct the first two demonstration Industry officials have debated the The existence of the Hyunmoo 4 fairly precise targets—at least south missile is fatter. Its reentry vehicle has booster and a kick stage. events for a new THAAD booster since merits of improving existing intercep- first was reported in September 2017, of the border. An ability to shoot from fins, implying it is maneuverable and Lockheed started working on the 2006. A static fire test for a new boost- tors versus investing in a purpose-built when the Seoul Economic Daily quoted deep in home territory has become perhaps terminally guided. Consistent technology for THAAD-ER in 2006, er would occur no later than the end system. Even if an improved THAAD an unnamed military officer saying the more valuable to South Korea. with that, the government has said it commissioning propulsion subcon- of fiscal 2022. By the middle of fiscal or SM-3 is unable to directly inter- weapon could penetrate 20 m (66 ft.) of Whether the nominal capability of has technology for ballistic missiles to tractor Aerojet to demonstrate a new 2023, the agency also plans to perform cept a missile, the attempt can force reinforced concrete. Its development any of the South Korean weapons also perform pull-up maneuvers. An ambig- 21-in.-dia. first-stage booster, along a flight test of the new booster paired the HGV to maneuver and bleed off follows that of the Hyunmoo 2 series. is the full capability is unknown. De- uous 2015 media report suggested the with a new upper, or “kick,” stage, with with a real or mass-representative sur- energy. By making several intercept The March 24 tests, range, payload signers could provide room for growth, Hyunmoo 2B could fly 800 km with a funding provided by internal research rogate THAAD KV, the agency says. attempts along the flight path, the and identity of the new missile were and the weapons could be sandbagged 500-kg warhead, but this now seems and development accounts. Barely a One stumbling block for the MDA HGV loses speed and becomes more reported by the newspapers JoongAng in tests. In 2012, the Chosun Ilbo news- to have referred to the Hyunmoo 2C. month after China successfully tested in Lockheed’s original THAAD-ER vulnerable to traditional interceptors Ilbo and Asia Economy Daily, online paper said the Hyunmoo 2B could fly The Hyunmoo 3 is a cruise missile. the experimental WU-14 hypersonic proposal was the 21-in. diameter of in the terminal phase. c news service Newsis and news agency 500 km but had been restricted to “Hyunmoo” is also spelled “Hyunmu.” c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 37 DEFENSE TEAM PLAYER > THREE PRODUCTION-REPRESENTATIVE AIRPOWER TEAMING SYSTEM AIRCRAFT ARE BEING BUILT > REMOVABLE NOSE ENABLES RECONFIGURATION IN THE FIELD

The  rst completed ATS reveals a di erent leading-edge pro le on the outer wing sections.

OEING Graham Warwick Washington and Bradley Perrett Beijing oeing is making extensive use of digital-twin technology to achieve a level of trusted autonomy that will enable its Airpower Teaming System (ATS) unmanned aircraft to operate as a “loyal wingman” to manned combat and surveillance platforms. B OEING CONCET The fi rst of three ATS prototypes was rolled out in Aus- tion decision is consistent with Boeing’s mid-2020s timeline. tralia on May 4 and is scheduled to fl y this year ahead of Experimenting with the prototypes will reveal what an extensive test campaign in partnership with the Royal the loyal wingman can be used for, says Roberts. If an Australian Air Force (RAAF), which is backing the program ATS is working with an E-7A, it is likely to be an escort, with A$40 million ($25.6 million) of government funding. she says. Operating with an F/A-18F, it is likely to play Designed to be affordable enough to be purchased in the role of an adversary, pretending to be target. As well quantity and flexible enough to perform multiple mis- as training, Boeing says the initial role is intelligence, sions, the fighter-size unmanned aircraft is the first surveillance and reconnaissance, but the RAAF expects clean-sheet Boeing aircraft to be developed outside the the ATS eventually to be armed. U.S. and the first military aircraft to be built in Australia “We see a growing demand for increased force mass, the for more than 50 years. ability for these platforms to support expeditionary opera- For the RAAF, its Loyal Wingman Advanced Development tions as well as provide range and persistence to support Program is an experimentation e“ ort to explore the concept the evolving theater of operations,” says Jared Hayes, Boe- of manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T). For Boeing, the ing senior director of autonomous aviation and technology. program is developing a product for which Australia is one “Think of it as a core vehicle that can be tailored to any possible buyer—and one possible location for production. specifi c set of export-market requirements.” The UK and The RAAF is interested in operating the ATS alongside U.S. are interested in the ATS, says Roberts, indicating its Boeing-supplied F/A-18F Super Hornet strike fight- that other countries are looking at the system. ers, electronic-attack EA-18G Growlers and commercial- Arnott says the Boeing Australia-led team has brought derivative E-7A Wedgetail air-surveillance and P-8A Po- disruptive ideas to the design, engineering and manufactur- seidon maritime patrol aircraft, as well as its Lockheed ing of an a“ ordable but relatively high-capability platform. Martin F-35As. The fl exible payload approach is based on a reconfi gurable The ATS could enter production by the middle of the nose that can snap on and o“ . The 8.5-ft.-long nose section decade, “maybe a little earlier,” says Shane Arnott, Boeing provides 90,000 in.3 of volume, all for payload as power, program director. The RAAF’s head of capability, Air Vice and cooling is provided from behind the fuselage bulkhead. Marshal Cath Roberts, says the timing of a potential acquisi- “The idea is that the nose is completely removable in

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theater. So you can have [an ATS] off doing a mission “Flying wings can be quite expensive and very unforgiv- and be programming a new nose on the ground for a new ing, particularly on actuators,” says Arnott. “A lot of thought TEAM PLAYER mission and, during that mission flow, change the nose went into getting that right balance of ‘good enough’ across and therefore change the role of the system,” Arnott says. the board, and signature is one aspect, but affordability is a THREE PRODUCTION-REPRESENTATIVE AIRPOWER TEAMING He adds that crews in the field will be able change noses big one, along with flexibility. So we have a relatively simple > “in a few number of hours.” airplane from a control-surface standpoint.” SYSTEM AIRCRAFT ARE BEING BUILT The reconfigurable nose provides open-architecture The ATS program is about more than just the airframe. payload interfaces. “We can work with customers to cre - “The difficult bit, and the bit that’s going to make a dif - > REMOVABLE NOSE ENABLES ate their own mission systems and are able to do that ference for the customers, is that integrated autonomy RECONFIGURATION IN THE FIELD in-country, so there are some industrial opportunities piece,” says Arnott. Boeing’s concept of operations, which there,” he says. A buyer can make its own noses and thus will be explored in experimentation with the RAAF, is that keep the innards secret. a manned platform such as the F/A-18F Super Hornet The ATS has been designed using model-based engi- would fly with three or more ATS. neering and “is one of the most comprehensive digital “ATS teams with piloted aircraft through an ‘opera- twins within Boeing,” Arnott says. The digital twin is key tor-on-the-loop’ approach. It is not remotely piloted. . . . to developing trust in the autonomy that will enable the So central to our development effort is getting the ‘right’ loyal wingman to team safely with manned platforms. level of autonomy to manage the workload on the teamed “It enables us to derisk as we develop the system. As manned systems to enhance, not detract from, their ca- we’re designing, we’re building the simulators. And as we pabilities,” he says. Working with RAAF operators, Boeing is using the ATS digital twin “to figure out the right level of infor - The  rst completed mation feed and direction” between the manned and ATS reveals a di erent unmanned aircraft. “That’s a big part of the extensive leading-edge pro le on flight-test program we have in front of us. We don’t have the outer wing sections. all the answers yet,” Arnott says. “Our development to date in the digital-twin labs and surrogates has confirmed a manageable workload in some OEING of the most stressing scenarios. But we will learn more through our test program as we confirm that manned- Graham Warwick Washington and Bradley Perrett Beijing unmanned teaming architecture,” he says. “Trustable autonomy is one of the big concepts that we oeing is making extensive use of digital-twin technology to achieve need to prove out in this program,” Arnott notes. “It’s an- a level of trusted autonomy that will enable its Airpower Teaming other reason why we’ve invested so heavily in the digital twin —to enable the warfighters to come in and fly the as- System (ATS) unmanned aircraft to operate as a “loyal wingman” set, including sitting in a cockpit with the switchology so to manned combat and surveillance platforms. we get the flows and the tactics development. We’ve been B OEING CONCET doing that as we’ve been building the airplane.” The fi rst of three ATS prototypes was rolled out in Aus- tion decision is consistent with Boeing’s mid-2020s timeline. Boeing is tuning its “operator-on-the-loop” approach to Boeing’s approach to enabling manned-unmanned team- tralia on May 4 and is scheduled to fl y this year ahead of Experimenting with the prototypes will reveal what ATS autonomy to minimize the manned aircraft workload. ing does not require significant modifications to the manned an extensive test campaign in partnership with the Royal the loyal wingman can be used for, says Roberts. If an aircraft, at least not initially. “Out of the box, we have a Australian Air Force (RAAF), which is backing the program ATS is working with an E-7A, it is likely to be an escort, build pieces, we are replacing those simulated pieces with concept where we don’t push any requirements upstream with A$40 million ($25.6 million) of government funding. she says. Operating with an F/A-18F, it is likely to play hardware. But, more importantly, we’re using it to mature from our aircraft,” Arnott says. “You can’t get an affordable Designed to be affordable enough to be purchased in the role of an adversary, pretending to be target. As well the autonomy,” he says. “We’ve been flying the digital twin system and then require significant upstream changes.” quantity and flexible enough to perform multiple mis- as training, Boeing says the initial role is intelligence, for some time on surrogates,” and it will be important to More capability will be possible when the ATS is sions, the fighter-size unmanned aircraft is the first surveillance and reconnaissance, but the RAAF expects certifying the system in an affordable fashion, he adds. teamed with larger platforms such as the E-7 and P-8. clean-sheet Boeing aircraft to be developed outside the the ATS eventually to be armed. The program is prototyping not only the ATS but also “There are opportunities for greater MUM-T capability U.S. and the first military aircraft to be built in Australia “We see a growing demand for increased force mass, the the factory. The first three aircraft are referred to as pro - when you have more glass in the back seats,” he says. “We for more than 50 years. ability for these platforms to support expeditionary opera- duction-representative vehicles because they are being see different paths for enhancing MUM-T across fighters, For the RAAF, its Loyal Wingman Advanced Development tions as well as provide range and persistence to support built using the automation processes planned for manu- which have limited screen space, up to the bigger com- Program is an experimentation e“ ort to explore the concept the evolving theater of operations,” says Jared Hayes, Boe- facture. The second ATS is now in fabrication. mercial derivatives.” of manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T). For Boeing, the ing senior director of autonomous aviation and technology. While it is a relatively small program, ATS is able to cap- Force protection, and the defense of high-value platforms program is developing a product for which Australia is one “Think of it as a core vehicle that can be tailored to any italize on Boeing’s “massive” investment in advanced manu- such as the E-7 and P-8, is one of the major teaming con- possible buyer—and one possible location for production. specifi c set of export-market requirements.” The UK and facturing and automation, Arnott says. The composite wing cepts being explored by the ATS program. “Boeing has a The RAAF is interested in operating the ATS alongside U.S. are interested in the ATS, says Roberts, indicating is produced using resin infusion, a technique pioneered on big interest in making sure those assets continue to be ef- its Boeing-supplied F/A-18F Super Hornet strike fight- that other countries are looking at the system. the Boeing 787, and “is Boeing’s biggest-ever single-piece fective and safe in the future battlespace. This system is ers, electronic-attack EA-18G Growlers and commercial- Arnott says the Boeing Australia-led team has brought resin-infusion composite part,” he says. “It is actually two seen as a key enabler to make that happen,” he says. derivative E-7A Wedgetail air-surveillance and P-8A Po- disruptive ideas to the design, engineering and manufactur- pieces: the top and the bottom that snap together.” After ground and taxi tests at an undisclosed loca- seidon maritime patrol aircraft, as well as its Lockheed ing of an a“ ordable but relatively high-capability platform. Cost was a key parameter in design trades. Boeing is not tion in Australia, Boeing and the RAAF plan to progress Martin F-35As. The fl exible payload approach is based on a reconfi gurable disclosing a figure, but Hayes says the cost target is inside through unmanned-unmanned and manned-unmanned The ATS could enter production by the middle of the nose that can snap on and o“ . The 8.5-ft.-long nose section the price range for attritable-class airframes. Compared teaming experiments on various representative missions decade, “maybe a little earlier,” says Shane Arnott, Boeing provides 90,000 in.3 of volume, all for payload as power, with Boeing’s previous stealthy, tailless unmanned combat to an operational demonstration. This will help Boeing program director. The RAAF’s head of capability, Air Vice and cooling is provided from behind the fuselage bulkhead. aircraft demonstrators, the X-45 and X-46, the ATS has a develop the ATS into “a real product that has operational Marshal Cath Roberts, says the timing of a potential acquisi- “The idea is that the nose is completely removable in relatively simple airframe design. utility,” Arnott says. c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 39 DEFENSE SR AIRMAN MATTHE SEEFELDT/S AIR FORCE PACAF Girds for Lighter, Leaner War > RUMRUNNER EVENT TESTED BASE DEFENSES > LOGISTICS-UNDER-ATTACK EFFORT PROPOSED

Steve Trimble Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and Singapore

he technological details of the both o ered a chance to test the Air Two F-15Cs decorated in Kadena’s U.S. Air Force’s new approach Force’s new Agile Combat Employ- ZZ tail ash were refueled by a 909th Tto fighting an air war in the ment (ACE) strategy. Moreover, the Air Refueling Sqdn. KC-135 during the next decade are still being fi ne-tuned Navy’s Northrop Grumman E-2Ds WestPac Rumrunner exercise. in laboratory experiments and simula- and local MIM-104 Army Patriot bat- tion centers, but a few of the dramatic teries added layers to the defenders’ changes are already visible here on battle-management tasks. tics lines across the sprawling PACAF the rocky shores of Okinawa, Japan. WestPac Rumrunner was not the region is a major focus for the Air A local exercise held in January full realization of ACE or Joint Force. In February, Air Force leaders called WestPac Rumrunner appeared All-Domain Command and Control rolled out a budget proposal that in- to be built around a routine counter- (JADC2), but the event was a tiny cludes a new logistics-under-attack air scenario: Twenty-four Boeing step on a pivotal base within the fi rst initiative. The goal is to make bases F-15Cs scrambled from Kadena AB island chain east of China. more resilient to coordinated attacks to a point about 100 mi. east of the “We’re trying to use all of our exer- aimed at weakening or destroying the island to intercept “invading” U.S. cises to learn something about Agile hubs currently used to rearm and re- Navy Boeing F/A-18E/Fs launched Combat Employment and base de- fuel combat aircraft. from MCAS Iwakuni on Japan’s fense,” Gen. Charles Brown, Jr., com- “The key aspect of ACE is to be mainland. Meanwhile, Special Oper- mander of Pacifi c Air Forces (PACAF), light, lean and agile,” Brown says. “So ations Forces (SOF) aircraft at- told Aviation Week in February. Brown your logistics do not become some- tempted to infi ltrate a team of com- has directed PACAF-controlled wings thing that’s a challenge.” mandos on the island. to start experimenting with two con- Most of the details of the new ini- Underlying that routine setup, how- cepts that require a change in mindset tiative are classified, but Air Force ever, was a glimpse of the future. Four as much as technology. leaders have acknowledged the plan in- Kadena-based F-15Cs refueled and re- “I don’t think we’ve got all the an- volves dispersing forces to remote air- armed during the exercise at MCAS swers yet, but [such events provide] strips and building up base defenses. Futenma on Okinawa. Another main- feedback or validate some things Brown also favors distributing na- land Japan-based Navy E-2D, which we’ve tried to do,” Brown says. “And scent technologies such as directed- supported Kadena’s F-15Cs against the then we ask, ‘How do you put that energy weapons, to serve as point invading F/A-18E/Fs and SOF teams, into our doctrine and change our ap- defenses, lest the Air Force face the refueled at Kadena. Although those proach?’” cost of deploying sophisticated kinetic seem like trivial logistical details, Adapting base defenses and logis- systems, such as Terminal High-Alti-

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tude Area Defense (THAAD) or Pa- is to make it harder for an adversary immediately “killed” the infiltration PACAF Girds for triot batteries to the dispersal sites to guess where such aircraft will take aircraft, says Lt. Col. Ryan Corrigan, around the region. Brown, who has off and land. commander of the 44th Fighter Sqdn. been selected to become the next “I can put [defensive aids] on a The event’s focus on practicing the chief of staff, also has said he is in- single airplane, and that’s important, ACE concept added another layer of Lighter, Leaner War terested in examining novel power but I also want to look at the places complexity. Dispersed operations are sources such as a future class of we’re operating from,” he says. “This not new to the Okinawan F-15Cs. A de- > RUMRUNNER EVENT TESTED BASE DEFENSES small, modular nuclear fission reac- is why we were looking at Agile Com- cade ago, Kadena’s squadrons helped tors to serve as the generators for bat Employment. So instead of dis- pioneer a concept called Agile Eagle, > LOGISTICS-UNDER-ATTACK EFFORT PROPOSED such high-power systems. persing on an airfield, we disperse which paired enough airlifters and Part of the logistics initiative has [combat aircraft] across airfields. tankers to move a group of F-15Cs already been set in motion. PACAF And then I’ve got to defend that.” anywhere in the region at a moment’s eventually wants to preposition In addition to being costly weap - notice. The idea further evolved into weapon systems in cargo containers ons systems, THAAD and Patriot the Rapid Raptor concept, which ap- around the region, but that first re - batteries also require significant plied a similar operational model to quires host nation approval. In the airlift support to relocate and sus- F-22s based at Hickam AFB in Hawaii, meantime, the command is laying the tain, Brown says. “I’m looking for and then into the wider ACE strategy, groundwork with proposals to prep- things that are lighter, leaner, where but it still presents a challenge to the osition humanitarian relief supplies. you have a more unlimited magazine, hub-based mindset of PACAF units.

“It really started out with STAFF SGT. BENJAMIN RAUGHTON/U.S. AIR FORCE [humanitarian assistance and disaster relief] capabilities that you can put in different locations,” Brown says. “If you look at this region, it’s full of typhoons, volcanoes, earth- quakes. And we respond to a lot of those. That, to me, is a way to start the process.” The focus on lightness and Steve Trimble Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and Singapore agility also marks a change. One way to reduce threats he technological details of the both o ered a chance to test the Air Two F-15Cs decorated in Kadena’s to the logistics systems is to U.S. Air Force’s new approach Force’s new Agile Combat Employ- ZZ tail ash were refueled by a 909th reduce the tonnage required Tto fighting an air war in the ment (ACE) strategy. Moreover, the Air Refueling Sqdn. KC-135 during the to support an operation, next decade are still being fi ne-tuned Navy’s Northrop Grumman E-2Ds thus decreasing the overall WestPac Rumrunner exercise. in laboratory experiments and simula- and local MIM-104 Army Patriot bat- demand for airlift. That em- tion centers, but a few of the dramatic teries added layers to the defenders’ phasis could lead to design changes are already visible here on battle-management tasks. tics lines across the sprawling PACAF requirements for lighter and the rocky shores of Okinawa, Japan. WestPac Rumrunner was not the region is a major focus for the Air more efficient weapon sys- A local exercise held in January full realization of ACE or Joint Force. In February, Air Force leaders tems, but the focus now is on A Kadena F-15C was refueled at MCAS Futenma during the exercise. called WestPac Rumrunner appeared All-Domain Command and Control rolled out a budget proposal that in- paring down logistics needs to be built around a routine counter- (JADC2), but the event was a tiny cludes a new logistics-under-attack to essentials and using software and the cost curve is different, so you Widely dispersed high-energy lasers air scenario: Twenty-four Boeing step on a pivotal base within the fi rst initiative. The goal is to make bases applications to drive new decisions can reserve your very expensive in- defending bases from saturation mis- F-15Cs scrambled from Kadena AB island chain east of China. more resilient to coordinated attacks about what that means. terceptor against a ballistic or cruise sile attacks still seem years into the to a point about 100 mi. east of the “We’re trying to use all of our exer- aimed at weakening or destroying the “This is where I think we start missile or hypersonic missile. At future, although field experiments island to intercept “invading” U.S. cises to learn something about Agile hubs currently used to rearm and re- talking about data and being able to some point, though, you can’t afford with counter-unmanned aircraft sys- Navy Boeing F/A-18E/Fs launched Combat Employment and base de- fuel combat aircraft. understand that better so we can fore- it. So having a high-power micro - tems designed by Raytheon and the from MCAS Iwakuni on Japan’s fense,” Gen. Charles Brown, Jr., com- “The key aspect of ACE is to be cast better,” Brown says. “And we’re wave and directed energy gives us a Air Force Research Laboratory have mainland. Meanwhile, Special Oper- mander of Pacifi c Air Forces (PACAF), light, lean and agile,” Brown says. “So not bringing everything just in case— lot more flexibility to go to different begun. In the meantime, the focus on ations Forces (SOF) aircraft at- told Aviation Week in February. Brown your logistics do not become some- you actually bring what you need.” locations. That’s the thought process. the unit level is about making practi- tempted to infi ltrate a team of com- has directed PACAF-controlled wings thing that’s a challenge.” Finally, protecting the mobility I think there’s good dialog about it. cal changes. mandos on the island. to start experimenting with two con- Most of the details of the new ini- fleet that delivers the equipment to We still have a ways to go.” “What we can take care of now is Underlying that routine setup, how- cepts that require a change in mindset tiative are classified, but Air Force dispersed and remote bases is anoth- The first steps are taking place training to not be an easy target,” Cor- ever, was a glimpse of the future. Four as much as technology. leaders have acknowledged the plan in- er priority. Air Mobility Command, in local exercises, such as WestPac rigan says. “It is finding the right lev- Kadena-based F-15Cs refueled and re- “I don’t think we’ve got all the an- volves dispersing forces to remote air- for example, has funded defensive Rumrunner. The Kadena-based 18th el of acceptable risk to right-size the armed during the exercise at MCAS swers yet, but [such events provide] strips and building up base defenses. upgrades for the Boeing KC-135 and Wing scored the counter-air element support package that goes with that Futenma on Okinawa. Another main- feedback or validate some things Brown also favors distributing na- Lockheed C-130H fleets, providing of the event as a success. No Carrier deployment team. So [for example], land Japan-based Navy E-2D, which we’ve tried to do,” Brown says. “And scent technologies such as directed- those previously undefended aircraft Air Wing Five F/A-18E/F “invaders” now I don’t need to bring both a weap- supported Kadena’s F-15Cs against the then we ask, ‘How do you put that energy weapons, to serve as point with warning systems and counter- infiltrated the 100-mi. boundary zone ons loader and a refuel team because invading F/A-18E/Fs and SOF teams, into our doctrine and change our ap- defenses, lest the Air Force face the measures against infrared- and ra- circling the island. An SOF team suc- I have trained my weapons loader to refueled at Kadena. Although those proach?’” cost of deploying sophisticated kinetic dio-frequency-guided missiles. An- cessfully landed an insertion team, know how to put gas in several differ- seem like trivial logistical details, Adapting base defenses and logis- systems, such as Terminal High-Alti- other way to defend the mobility fleet but the 44th Fighter Sqdn.’s F-15Cs ent types of aircraft.” c

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Military capability is the most critical factor in the de- Finnish Fighter cision, HX-Fighter Program Director Lauri Puranen tells Aviation Week. “Finland is not an allied nation; we are en- tirely responsible for our national defense,” Puranen says. Needs Challenge “So we will score each of the contenders on their military capability alone.” Issues such as supply chain security , industrial participa- Bidders tion and life-cycle costs are also important considerations, but the scoring for those factors is more black and white—a > ALL FIVE BIDDERS PARTICIPATED IN THE pass or a fail. Industrial participation in the HX program— HX-CHALLENGE DURING JANUARY AND FEBRUARY investment by the winner in the Finnish industrial and tech- nology base—is set at a minimum of 30%. > BUDGET SET AT €10 BILLION, ALTHOUGH €700 Finland’s contest is seen as one of the most important fi ght- MILLION SET ASIDE FOR INTEGRATION er contests in Europe; it is certainly among the most valuable.

Tony Osborne London

uring January and February, some of the West’s top Euro ghter Typhoon fi ghter exports were put through their paces in the Dchallenging environment of Finland. Over the course of several weeks, the HX-Challenge hosted by the Finnish Air Force saw foreign fi ghter aircraft and their sensors pitted against their Finnish counterparts, a sign that the program to replace the country’s legacy-model F/A-18 Hornets was beginning to heat up. For procurement BAE SSTEMS o‚ cials, however, it was a chance to test whether the prom- ised performance of the fi ve aircraft would live up to reality. Before a selection is made in 2021, the Finns plan to game out scenarios that will test the military capabilities of the bidders. Using a combination of verified data from the HX-Challenge fl ights as well as information gleaned from examinations focusing on the future capabilities of the air- craft, Finnish defense procurement o‚ cials will simulate a two-week war that will help them decide which aircraft will oˆ er the best military capability : Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hor- net, Dassault’s Rafale, the Eurofi ghter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-35 or Saab’s new JAS-39E/F Gripen.

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Military capability is the most critical factor in the de- and intelligence, and surveillance and reconnaissance. Finnish Fighter cision, HX-Fighter Program Director Lauri Puranen tells “We gave [the bidders] a free hand in designing and Aviation Week. “Finland is not an allied nation; we are en- building a solution to meet our scenarios,” says Puranen. tirely responsible for our national defense,” Puranen says. Lockheed Martin F-35A “They could have chose ground-based air defense sys- Needs Challenge “So we will score each of the contenders on their military Lightning II tems and ground-launched missiles, or UAV and other capability alone.” assets. All opted to provide multirole fi ghters.” Issues such as supply chain security , industrial participa- OCHEE MARTIN With fi ghters proposed, Helsinki tendered a contract Bidders tion and life-cycle costs are also important considerations, for 64 aircraft—a number that would have replaced the but the scoring for those factors is more black and white—a Initial budgetary range for the procurement was listed at existing legacy Hornet fl eet on a near one-for-one basis. > ALL FIVE BIDDERS PARTICIPATED IN THE pass or a fail. Industrial participation in the HX program— €7-10 billion but it is now fi rmly set at €10 billion. Around Some of the bids have been innovative as well: Saab’s pro- HX-CHALLENGE DURING JANUARY AND FEBRUARY investment by the winner in the Finnish industrial and tech- €700 million of the budget has been earmarked to support posal for Gripen fi ghters also includes a pair of GlobalEye nology base—is set at a minimum of 30%. integration of the fi ghter into the wider Finnish defense multisensor surveillance aircraft, while Boeing’s Super > BUDGET SET AT €10 BILLION, ALTHOUGH €700 Finland’s contest is seen as one of the most important fi ght- system and to bolster the building of new infrastructure Hornet package contains several EA-18G Growler elec- MILLION SET ASIDE FOR INTEGRATION er contests in Europe; it is certainly among the most valuable. to support them. tronic warfare platforms. But as a recent request for quo- Finland did not originally ask for fi ghters per se , but rath- tations has suggested, all of the bidders are struggling Tony Osborne London er for equipment to perform the fi ve primary air force mis- to provide a 64-strong fl eet within the intended budget. sions: air defense, anti-ship, ground attack, long-range strike The bidders have found things challenging because uring January and February, some of the West’s top Euro ghter Typhoon fi ghter exports were put through their paces in the Saab JAS-39E Gripen Dchallenging environment of Finland. Over the course of several weeks, the HX-Challenge hosted by the Finnish Air Force saw foreign fi ghter aircraft and their sensors pitted against their Finnish counterparts, a sign that the program to replace the country’s legacy-model F/A-18 Hornets was beginning to heat up. For procurement BAE SSTEMS o‚ cials, however, it was a chance to test whether the prom- SAAB ised performance of the fi ve aircraft would live up to reality. Before a selection is made in 2021, the Finns plan to game out scenarios that will test the military capabilities of the bidders. Using a combination of verified data from the Finland requires everything to be included in the tender HX-Challenge fl ights as well as information gleaned from (airframes, weapon packages, sensors, initial training, examinations focusing on the future capabilities of the air- spares and maintenance capabilities). craft, Finnish defense procurement o‚ cials will simulate a “We have to be prepared to defend Finland by our- two-week war that will help them decide which aircraft will selves,” Puranen says. “So we need sizable stocks of oˆ er the best military capability : Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hor- weapons.” net, Dassault’s Rafale, the Eurofi ghter Typhoon, Lockheed Given that Finland already fl ies a U.S.-sourced aircraft Martin F-35 or Saab’s new JAS-39E/F Gripen. with American weaponry, it could be argued that the selection of a U.S.-made fi ghter would be benefi cial, as the aircraft in the fl eet could make use of such weapon stocks. Puranen accepts the fact that some elements in the fi ghter program could benefi t a U.S. platform, but he notes that weapons like the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile can also be used on European aircraft types such as the Eurofi ghter and the Gripen. Besides, many of the weapons in the Finnish defense stock will be old and running out of life by the time the new fi ghter begins entering service in the late 2020s. The bidders will need to provide initial instruction, but all future training will be performed in-country with pilots fi rst fl ying the BAE Systems Hawk jet trainer— some of which have been in service since 1980, although additional aircraft with low fl ight hours were purchased from Switzerland in 2008. There are no plans to replace the Hawks until the 2030s. Instead, Finnish industry has upgraded the aircraft extensively to keep them relevant and has introduced a live, virtual and constructive train- ing environment linking the aircraft with simulators on the ground through a system called Hawk Link. Basic training will be carried out on secondhand Grob G 115 twin-seat trainers purchased from the UK. These, too, The F/A-18 Hornet, now in the autumn of its Finnish Air are being outfi tted with new glass cockpits. Force career, will exit service by 2030. Puranen expects all five competitors to remain in the competition to the end, pointing out that the cost FINNISH AIR FORCE

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 4 DEFENSE

Dassault Rafale C recession. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has called for the program to remain on schedule because of the ur- gent need to renew defense capabilities. Nonetheless, key meetings planned with each of the bidders for this month had to be postponed until the fall, ASSAUT AIATION Puranen says. They cannot be performed virtually because of security concerns, he adds. The HX program has already issued two requests for of sending aircraft to the in-country evaluation was not a quotations: the fi rst in April 2018 and the second in No- cheap process. vember 2019. At the end of the year, a third request will be The Finnish procurement system does not call for short- issued calling for the best and fi nal oˆ er from the bidders. listing competitors. “We are not making comparisons; we Once received, the information will be collated for use in are looking at the whole system,” Puranen says. the simulations that score the military capability and help Several of the bidders have welcomed Finland’s ap- inform the fi nal decision in 2021. c proach to transparency in the process. This has gone even further in recent weeks, after Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen called upon the participants to refrain Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet from using consultants. A number of the competitors had hired former senior military o€ cers and chiefs to lobby politicians. While concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic could aˆ ect defense procurements elsewhere, Finnish politicians are keeping the HX program on track—just as they did in 1992, when the F/A-18 Hornet was chosen in the midst of an economic TON OSBORNE/AST

REPLACING THE HORNET

Unlike many of the fi ghter contests Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile the mix. In addition to being the in- in Europe in recent years, Finland’s (JASSM). The Hornet has suited the cumbent, the Super Hornet package fi ghter choice is di€ cult to predict. Finns well, with its roots in carrier- has been potentially bolstered by a Having spent decades striking a bal- based aviation allowing it to operate fighter selection by Germany. The ance between East and West , with the from a wide range of airfi elds and even Luftwaˆ e’s plan for a split buy of Euro- Mikoyan MiG-21 and the Saab Draken, from road runways—as is commonly fi ghters and Super Hornets means a respectively, the end of the Cold War practiced in Sweden. Finland practic- Finnish Super Hornet fl eet might not meant Finland could turn to the West es road-runway capabilities at least be orphaned in Europe. Notably, the for its future combat aircraft. once a year, and that need is unlikely Super Hornet is the only one of the fi ve The F/A-18 Hornet had to beat out to go away. Helsinki did examine ex- aircraft on offer that will not be stiˆ competition from a group of chal- tending the life of the Hornets but equipped with the MBDA Meteor be- lengers that included Dassault’s Mi- concluded that the process would have yond-visual-range air-to-air missile. rage 2000, the Lockheed Martin F-16 been expensive and left the country Strengthening bilateral defense and the A/B models of Saab’s Gripen. lagging behind its Nordic neighbors, ties between Helsinki and Stockholm Even Russia’s Mikoyan MiG-29 was not to mention unable to deal with could help the chances of Saab’s considered but quickly dropped. new and increasingly capable threats. JAS-39E/F Gripen, an aircraft cur- The Hornet was selected on the ba- As the victor in almost every fi ghter rently in development but due to come sis of operating costs and suitability contest in which it has participated, to market with advanced electronic to air force requirements and pro- the Lockheed Martin F-35 is likely the warfare capabilities. A long-term pro- duction-line stability, Aviation Week aircraft to beat. The Lockheed aircraft gram of spiral updates could help sell reported in May 1992. Local Finnish is the only fi fth-generation fi ghter in the Dassault Rafale: The French want fi rm Valmet completed fi nal assembly the contest and is equipped with some to keep their Eurocanard in service of all the single-seat models. of the most advanced capabilities. until the 2060s, a timeline that could The desire at the time was for a And while the procurement cost of be attractive for the Finns. pure fighter, but Helsinki’s wish to the aircraft has fallen, life-cycle costs Meanwhile, the Eurofi ghter—which participate in international missions remain high. For Finland, there are would benefi t from the planned long- after 2000 prompted the development questions about how independent the term evolution program— is planning of an air-to-ground capability. Over aircraft would be, given that the F-35 to oˆ er Typhoons equipped with ac- the last 15 years, the Finnish Hornets is tied into logistics systems originally tive, electronically scanned array have been equipped with a range of designed for NATO air forces. Finland radar in a similar specifi cation to the advanced weapons including the would also face additional scrutiny of Quadriga aircraft proposed for Ger- U.S.-made Raytheon AGM-154 Joint its security requirements for basing many. The Eurofi ghter Finland bid is Standoff Weapon (JSOW), Joint Di- of the platform. being led by BAE Systems on behalf of rect Attack Munition (JDAM) kits and The other U.S. competitor, the the four national partners: Germany, the Lockheed Martin AGM-158 Joint F/A-18 Super Hornet, could also be in Italy, Spain and the UK. c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Dassault Rafale C recession. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has called A New Chinese Naval JL-9 Appears, has begun making the AI-222-25 (for for the program to remain on schedule because of the ur- the Yak-130 trainer), but cessation of gent need to renew defense capabilities. Possibly for Carriers Ukrainian supplies may have disrupted Nonetheless, key meetings planned with each of the the JL-10 program and perhaps creat- bidders for this month had to be postponed until the fall, > MARKETING MATERIAL DEPICTS THE SUPERSONIC TRAINER ed an opening for an improved JL-9G. ASSAUT AIATION Puranen says. They cannot be performed virtually because Two changes in the design appear OVER AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER of security concerns, he adds. in official photographs of the first -air The HX program has already issued two requests for IT MAY BE PREFERRED TO PRACTICING DECK LANDINGS WITH J-15s craft of the new JL-9G version. One of sending aircraft to the in-country evaluation was not a quotations: the fi rst in April 2018 and the second in No- > is the deletion of external longitudi- cheap process. vember 2019. At the end of the year, a third request will be Bradley Perrett Beijing nal structures for mounting the large The Finnish procurement system does not call for short- issued calling for the best and fi nal oˆ er from the bidders. ventral strakes that have long been a listing competitors. “We are not making comparisons; we Once received, the information will be collated for use in vic Guizhou is developing what idly to its first flight, says the company, feature of the MiG-21, its J-7 Chinese are looking at the whole system,” Puranen says. the simulations that score the military capability and help may be a shipboard version of which is formally called Guizhou Avi- copy and the JL-9 trainer derivative. Several of the bidders have welcomed Finland’s ap- inform the fi nal decision in 2021. c Aits JL-9G supersonic trainer in- ation Industry Corp.; it is part of Avic. The strakes were left off the JL-9G, proach to transparency in the process. This has gone even tended for use on Chinese aircraft car- Since the new aircraft was painted presumably to increase angle of at- further in recent weeks, after Finnish Defense Minister riers. Separately, the state operation in the red and white colors used by tack on takeoff and landing, but the Antti Kaikkonen called upon the participants to refrain Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet says it has taken a first foreign order JL-9Gs in naval service, it must be in- mounting structures remained; now from using consultants. A number of the competitors had for the JL-9G in its export configura- tended for the navy. Representatives they have disappeared, saving weight. hired former senior military o€ cers and chiefs to lobby tion, the combat-capable FTC-2000G. of the armed forces were present A second change is at the base of politicians. While concerns about the economic impact of Myanmar appears to be the customer. when final assembly was completed the fin, under the rudder, where a new the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic could aˆ ect defense The new domestic version must earlier on April 19, Avic Guizhou says. housing of triangular section is fitted; procurements elsewhere, Finnish politicians are keeping be only a candidate for some require- Moreover, the appearance of the air- this replaces a housing of round sec- the HX program on track—just as they did in 1992, when ment, not yet selected for production, craft follows a March 16 statement in tion on the original JL-9G design. the F/A-18 Hornet was chosen in the midst of an economic because Avic Guizhou speaks of trying which Avic Guizhou said on its social If this version really is intended for TON OSBORNE/AST shipboard operation, the design must have much bigger changes, includ- Differences appear in the rear of REPLACING THE HORNET ing strengthening the landing gear the new JL-9G version.

AVIC GUIZHOU AVIC and, probably, the airframe structure Unlike many of the fi ghter contests Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile the mix. In addition to being the in- for deck impact. A suitable tailhook in Europe in recent years, Finland’s (JASSM). The Hornet has suited the cumbent, the Super Hornet package would be needed, too. fi ghter choice is di€ cult to predict. Finns well, with its roots in carrier- has been potentially bolstered by a This implies a costly development Having spent decades striking a bal- based aviation allowing it to operate fighter selection by Germany. The program—and one that foreign expe- ance between East and West , with the from a wide range of airfi elds and even Luftwaˆ e’s plan for a split buy of Euro- rience suggests may be unnecessary. Mikoyan MiG-21 and the Saab Draken, from road runways—as is commonly fi ghters and Super Hornets means a The U.S. Navy, keeping at least 10 respectively, the end of the Cold War practiced in Sweden. Finland practic- Finnish Super Hornet fl eet might not aircraft carriers in service, has long meant Finland could turn to the West es road-runway capabilities at least be orphaned in Europe. Notably, the used dedicated training aircraft for for its future combat aircraft. once a year, and that need is unlikely Super Hornet is the only one of the fi ve shipboard operation, but other navies The F/A-18 Hornet had to beat out to go away. Helsinki did examine ex- aircraft on offer that will not be have not. stiˆ competition from a group of chal- tending the life of the Hornets but equipped with the MBDA Meteor be- The South China Morning Post re- lengers that included Dassault’s Mi- concluded that the process would have yond-visual-range air-to-air missile. ported last December that China had rage 2000, the Lockheed Martin F-16 been expensive and left the country Strengthening bilateral defense suspended plans to build more than and the A/B models of Saab’s Gripen. lagging behind its Nordic neighbors, ties between Helsinki and Stockholm four aircraft carriers, due to cost and Even Russia’s Mikoyan MiG-29 was not to mention unable to deal with could help the chances of Saab’s problems in developing an electromag- considered but quickly dropped. new and increasingly capable threats. JAS-39E/F Gripen, an aircraft cur- to win a new victory with the JL-9G. media account that it is determined to netic catapult and, for the originally The Hornet was selected on the ba- As the victor in almost every fi ghter rently in development but due to come Its obvious competitor would be the win a new victory with JL-9G devel- intended fifth and sixth ships, a nuclear sis of operating costs and suitability contest in which it has participated, to market with advanced electronic JL-10 from Avic Hongdu. That re - opment. It illustrated the social media powerplant. China commissioned its to air force requirements and pro- the Lockheed Martin F-35 is likely the warfare capabilities. A long-term pro- quirement could be for shipboard op- post with a generated image of a JL-9G first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, in 2012 duction-line stability, Aviation Week aircraft to beat. The Lockheed aircraft gram of spiral updates could help sell eration, since China now trains fight- flying over a Chinese aircraft carrier. and a second, Shandong, in 2019. Both reported in May 1992. Local Finnish is the only fi fth-generation fi ghter in the Dassault Rafale: The French want er pilots to land on and take off from Designers who created the MiG-21 have ski jumps. A JL-9G has appeared fi rm Valmet completed fi nal assembly the contest and is equipped with some to keep their Eurocanard in service aircraft carriers with big and costly as a Mach-2, high-altitude interceptor in a seemingly authentic video taking of all the single-seat models. of the most advanced capabilities. until the 2060s, a timeline that could J-15s from Avic Shenyang, which are in the 1950s would have been amazed off with a ski jump. The third and The desire at the time was for a And while the procurement cost of be attractive for the Finns. reportedly difficult to control. by the idea that a new derivative could fourth ships will reportedly have elec- pure fighter, but Helsinki’s wish to the aircraft has fallen, life-cycle costs Meanwhile, the Eurofi ghter—which The JL-9G, a distant derivative of arrive on Chinese aircraft carriers in tromagnetic catapults. participate in international missions remain high. For Finland, there are would benefi t from the planned long- the MiG-21, is already used by China’s the 2020s. The prospect is even more The first export order for the FTC- after 2000 prompted the development questions about how independent the term evolution program— is planning navy as a land-based trainer. surprising when one considers that 2000G was signed in January 2020, of an air-to-ground capability. Over aircraft would be, given that the F-35 to oˆ er Typhoons equipped with ac- Avic Guizhou said on April 19 that its China has a modern type designed state media including the Guizhou Daily the last 15 years, the Finnish Hornets is tied into logistics systems originally tive, electronically scanned array flight-test department had taken deliv- from the beginning as a trainer, the say, citing officials from Avic Guizhou. have been equipped with a range of designed for NATO air forces. Finland radar in a similar specifi cation to the ery of a “first aircraft”—meaning the JL-10, which first flew in 2006. Delivery of the first batch is due next advanced weapons including the would also face additional scrutiny of Quadriga aircraft proposed for Ger- first unit of a new type or version. But Chinese internet portal Tencent year. The customer is not identified but U.S.-made Raytheon AGM-154 Joint its security requirements for basing many. The Eurofi ghter Finland bid is Photo graphs of the rear fuselage and reported in 2018 that U.S. “experts” Chinese media speculate it is Myan- Standoff Weapon (JSOW), Joint Di- of the platform. being led by BAE Systems on behalf of wing published four days earlier indi- had pressured Ukraine to cease supply- mar, which uses several Chinese air- rect Attack Munition (JDAM) kits and The other U.S. competitor, the the four national partners: Germany, cate that the design was based on the ing the JL-10’s engine, the Motor Sich craft types, including the J-7. Another the Lockheed Martin AGM-158 Joint F/A-18 Super Hornet, could also be in Italy, Spain and the UK. c JL-9G. The project is proceeding rap- AI-222-25. Russia’s Ivchenko-Progress possibility would be Cambodia. c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 45 DEFENSE

> U.S. AIR FORCE’S AGILITY PRIME AIMS TO BOOST INVESTOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN eVTOL MARKET > PROTOTYPE AGREEMENTS WILL HOPES PRODUCE VEHICLE TEST REPORTS Graham Warwick Washington

or a defense program ing commercial market in a way that in the U.S. “Because we were not pro- accelerates it for all of us, and not just active, the market went in a way that with relatively little for the military,” says Air Force acqui- was not to the benefi t of our national funding behind it, sition chief Will Roper. security or industry,” says Roper. Agility Prime comes Agility Prime aims to tap into exist- The value Agility Prime brings to F ing commercial investment in eVTOL the nascent eVTOL market is more freighted with expectations. development and, through in-kind than just funding, he says. It includes The U.S. Air Force program to help support in the form of access to test access to resources to help manufac- build a domestic electric vertical-take- resources and technical expertise, help turers move quickly through military off-and-landing (eVTOL) industrial U.S. manufacturers along the way to certifi cation so that the Air Force and base is a lifeline for a nascent market FAA certifi cation. At the same time, other agencies can begin buying vehi- as private capital dries up because of the program will seek out opportuni- cles for missions including logistics, COVID-19. For the Air Force, if suc- ties within the Air Force and other gov- base defense and disaster relief, “re- cessful, Agility Prime could be a model ernment agencies for early purchases moving the risk that the market will of how to bring defense procurement of eVTOLs to help ramp up production. move overseas,” he says. together with commercial markets to The program has been conceived to “This looks like a model that could compete with China’s national drive avoid what happened in the small drone counteract the benefi ts a country like for technology supremacy. market, where the Pentagon failed to China gets with a nationalized indus- “For me, it’s a template for how to engage the emerging U.S. industry and try base where you’re able to pick win- take the military market—our entire the supply chain migrated overseas. ners and losers,” says Roper. “What value proposition, not just our fund- Drones made in China by market leader I like about this is it brings together ing—and bring it to bear on an emerg- DJI are now regarded as a security risk our national assets—our vibrant com-

Sabrewing Aircraft’s Rhaegel-A unmanned cargo aircraft prototype will be test- own under Agility Prime.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE O AVIAIO

mercial ecosystem, private capital, government—but it maintains those > U.S. AIR FORCE’S AGILITY PRIME markets that have been so amazing at AIMS TO BOOST INVESTOR keeping innovation fresh and vibrant.” CONFIDENCE IN eVTOL MARKET “The Air Force’s Agility Prime ini- HIGH tiative comes at a critical time when many innovative eVTOL developers Joby has used military air- PROTOTYPE AGREEMENTS WILL are beginning to fl y demonstrators but > need support to move forward,” says space to test- y its eVTOL PRODUCE VEHICLE TEST REPORTS Mike Hirschberg, executive director of under a Defense Innovation the Vertical Flight Society. As private Unit contract won in 2017. HOPES investment in startups and corporate spending in R&D have been hit by the Graham Warwick Washington novel coronavirus crisis, Agility Prime “is an endorsement of the potential of In return for providing access to De- the Marine Corps and Special Opera- or a defense program ing commercial market in a way that in the U.S. “Because we were not pro- eVTOL technology that should also fense Department test resources and tions Command are also involved. accelerates it for all of us, and not just active, the market went in a way that bolster investor confi dence,” he says. certifi cation expertise, the Air Force, By fi elding eVTOLs “in some sub- with relatively little for the military,” says Air Force acqui- was not to the benefi t of our national The Air Force has established three Marine Corps and other government stantive way” by 2023, when Uber plans funding behind it, sition chief Will Roper. security or industry,” says Roper. “areas of interest” (AOI) under the agencies will get to assess the perfor- to begin limited commercial service in Agility Prime comes Agility Prime aims to tap into exist- The value Agility Prime brings to Agility Prime “innovative capabilities mance and capabilities of commer- its pilot cities, the Air Force aims to F ing commercial investment in eVTOL the nascent eVTOL market is more opening” released in late February. The cial eVTOLs with an eye to procuring “stress-test this new capability in a way freighted with expectations. development and, through in-kind than just funding, he says. It includes fi rst AOI is for eVTOL air taxis carry- aircraft o the shelf for military and that brings acceptance by the public, as The U.S. Air Force program to help support in the form of access to test access to resources to help manufac- ing three to eight people, the second public-use missions that have yet to well as delivers be tter capability for the build a domestic electric vertical-take- resources and technical expertise, help turers move quickly through military for one- or two-person vehicles and the be identifi ed. The Air Force plans to Defense Department, [and] ultimately off-and-landing (eVTOL) industrial U.S. manufacturers along the way to certifi cation so that the Air Force and third for unmanned cargo aircraft able fi eld a small quantity of eVTOLs by for the commercial market,” says Col. base is a lifeline for a nascent market FAA certifi cation. At the same time, other agencies can begin buying vehi- to carry payloads of more than 500 lb. 2023, says Lynda Rutledge, Air Force Scott McKeever, global mobility lead as private capital dries up because of the program will seek out opportuni- cles for missions including logistics, Each AOI has three phases: submis- mobility and training aircraft program for the Air Force Warfi ghter Integra- COVID-19. For the Air Force, if suc- ties within the Air Force and other gov- base defense and disaster relief, “re- sion of a proposal or “solution brief,” executive o cer. tion Capability o ce. cessful, Agility Prime could be a model ernment agencies for early purchases moving the risk that the market will a site visit to determine funding and The Air Force is particularly in- A key consideration for Agility Prime of how to bring defense procurement of eVTOLs to help ramp up production. move overseas,” he says. testing needs and, if successful, an terested in the promise of eVTOL to is how private investors react to the Air together with commercial markets to The program has been conceived to “This looks like a model that could invitation to submit a prototype pro- provide lower acquisition and support Force working with eVTOL startups. compete with China’s national drive avoid what happened in the small drone counteract the benefi ts a country like posal. To qualify, bidders must be able costs, reduced acoustic and infrared Investors previously devalued com- for technology supremacy. market, where the Pentagon failed to China gets with a nationalized indus- to fl y a full-scale prototype by Dec. 17, signatures, and simplifi ed fl ight con- panies if they were engaged with the “For me, it’s a template for how to engage the emerging U.S. industry and try base where you’re able to pick win- 2020. The program plans to award no- trol requiring less pilot training, says Defense Department, Roper says. But take the military market—our entire the supply chain migrated overseas. ners and losers,” says Roper. “What cost “other transaction authority for Agility Prime team lead Col. Nathan since the Air Force revamped how it value proposition, not just our fund- Drones made in China by market leader I like about this is it brings together prototype” contracts to produce test Diller. The missions being studied in- interacts with technology startups, ing—and bring it to bear on an emerg- DJI are now regarded as a security risk our national assets—our vibrant com- reports on the vehicles. clude transporting ballistic-missile op- the ratio of private to government in- erators to remote launch control cen- vestment has risen to 3:1 from 0.75:1, ters, perimeter security at large bases, bringing more than $1 billion in private “lateral logistics” by moving packages money into its programs, he says. “They and personnel between squads, disas- now raise the value of a company if it is ter support to civilian agencies and engaged with the Air Force,” he adds. distributed personnel recovery by lo- By providing a boost to emerging cating rescue assets closer to combat. eVTOL manufacturers at a time when The $25 million provided by Con- access to private capital is limited, gress for Agility Prime in fi scal 2020 the Air Force hopes Agility Prime is small compared with the cost of will help avoid a repeat of “the cau- certifying an eVTOL. “When you tionary tale” of the drone industry. look across our [vehicle] partners, The virtual kicko event, which ran just to develop an experimental air- from April 27-May 1, “really came out craft is $100-150 million. To certify strong about the need for the U.S. to that aircraft is $750 million-1 billion,” invest in American eVTOL developers Mark Moore, Uber Elevate director of and discouraged U.S. companies from strategy, told the Agility P rime virtual accepting ‘adversarial capital’ from kicko event on April 28. countries like China,” says Hirschberg. But the Air Force hopes that putting “There are so many challenges with these vehicles through its trusted air- developing commercially compelling Sabrewing Aircraft’s Rhaegel-A unmanned worthiness program, and the data col- eVTOL systems; Agility Prime helps cargo aircraft prototype will be test- own lected operating them, will accelerate build momentum to overcome them,” under Agility Prime. FAA certifi cation while early procure- says Hirschberg. “If we get Agility Prime ments will help scale up the supply right, I hope that it becomes the stan- chain. The Air Force goal is to operate dard for how the Pentagon engages in all 30 vehicles by 2030, says Roper, and areas of commercial tech,” Roper says.c AIG AICA

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 4 ebhe

easer ROTORCRAFT riar Cateor

econar Cateor Fiber-Optic Sensing Could Transform a 3-hr. ground run of the H135 heli- copter in Oxford, England. However, Bullet oints Main Rotor Blade Technology since the aircraft was not tied down, the measurements were limited by > BLADESENSE TECHNOLOGY TESTED ON AIRBUS H135 HELICOPTER IN the amount of power that could be NOVEMBER 2019 applied and the level of cyclic control the pilot could provide. > SYSTEM COULD HELP ENGINEERS DEVELOP MORE ADVANCED BLADES “We were very happy with the data,” Weber says. “The sensors collected data on the rotor harmonics and the blade frequencies and captured all the major loads.”

The Bladesense system was fi tted to the top of the H135ʼs main rotor assembly during its November 2019 ground run. The next step could be Bladesense 2, in which the system would be devel- oped further to support fl ight testing. This will require the Bladesense as- AIU HICO U Tony Osborne London sembly to be scaled down compared to the current system, while the fi ber rials of a fi ber optic-based sensing copters’ four main rotor blades. Fiber optics would likely be embedded with- technology fitted to helicopter Bragg gratings, a type of reflector in the blade. Work on developing plans Trotor blades could pave the way within the optics, were used to mon- for the Bladesense 2 project began in to extended blade life and, if successful, itor local environmental parameters January. But there is more to do, notes even support future generations of ro- at key points along the blade length. Weber, including the drafting of re- torcraft fl ight control systems. The changes in blade shape alter the search proposals. A technology that was originally con- wavelength of the light emitted down Nonetheless, the prospects for the ceived to speed up international com- the optic. technology are bright, Weber suggests. munications has been adapted for this The fiber optics have significant Airbus believes the concept could pro- usage, which means it could now help advantages over electrical systems: vide significant advantages for pre- engineers understand the complexities They are much lighter, have a higher dictive maintenance of the blades if of blade dynamics and their shape in reliability and are durable even when installed on customer aircraft, giving the harsh, challenging environment of subjected to the forces experienced by them longer installed life as well as re- a main rotor system, providing an en- rotor blades. ducing operational costs and increas- hanced capability over strain-sensing “Strain sensing using fi ber Bragg ing aircraft availability. The technolo- systems currently in use . grating is not necessarily a novel sys- gy could also lead to the development The development of the Bladesense tem . . . but shape sensing, on the other of health- and usage-monitoring sys- project has been carried out with the hand, is very new,” Weber says. “The tems for blades—although there have support of Airbus Helicopters, BHR project was very ambitious, given our been very few composite main rotor Group, Cranfi eld University and Heli- funding and resources, but we did blade failures, unlike their metal and tune. The program has been funded achieve a lot.” wood predecessors. For military he- with £2 million ($2.49 million) by the The process was also challenged by licopters, the technology could warn Aerospace Technology Institute and the need to collect data from balance pilots if an aircraft’s blades have been Innovate UK . positions on the aircraft that would damaged by enemy fi re or degraded Technical aspects of the work have not be infl uenced by vibrational loads, by the environment during landings been led by Airbus Helicopters engi- so Weber and the Bladesense team in dusty conditions. neer Simone Weber, who began work developed an assembly using oš -the- Bladesense could also be an invalu- on the proposals in 2016 and finally shelf components that sits above the able tool for prototyping new blades, saw the concept brought to life during blades in a static position. validating aeroelastic instruments ground trials on an H135 twin-engine Inside are the interrogation devices and helping helicopter engineers light helicopter in November 2019 . that collect data from the sensors. better understand blade dynamics, Bladesense was developed to look The assembly also includes batteries particularly as blade shapes become for deformations in the blade and as- because the system could not take more complex and manufacturers sess the blade condition in fl ight. Nor- power from the aircraft due to its introduce active blade systems. The mally, such deformations can be found temporary fitment, a wireless con- technology’s monitoring of dynamics only in controlled environments with nection so that data can be collected could also help inform future flight specialist equipment. in real time, and a power management control systems, especially for future For the trials, fi ber optics were outfi t- system to prevent the system from rotorcraft using active or morphing ted down the length of two of the heli- overheating. Data was collected during blades, Weber suggests. c

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ebhe

easer ROTORCRAFT PROPULSION riar Cateor

econar Cateor Fiber-Optic Sensing Could Transform a 3-hr. ground run of the H135 heli- copter in Oxford, England. However, Bullet oints Main Rotor Blade Technology since the aircraft was not tied down, the measurements were limited by the amount of power that could be SHORT STORY > BLADESENSE TECHNOLOGY TESTED ON AIRBUS H135 HELICOPTER IN NOVEMBER 2019 applied and the level of cyclic control the pilot could provide. > DISTRIBUTED ELECTRIC SYSTEM COULD HELP ENGINEERS DEVELOP MORE ADVANCED BLADES > “We were very happy with the data,” PROPULSION REDUCES WEIGHT Weber says. “The sensors collected data on the rotor harmonics and the AND COST OF STOL blade frequencies and captured all the major loads.” > STOL AIRCRAFT COULD The Bladesense system was fi tted FIT BETWEEN URBAN AIR to the top of the H135ʼs main rotor TAXIS AND REGIONAL JETS assembly during its November 2019 ground run. The next step could be Bladesense 2, in which the system would be devel- oped further to support fl ight testing. Graham Warwick Washington This will require the Bladesense as- AIU HICO U Tony Osborne London sembly to be scaled down compared hile many aviation startups are focusing to the current system, while the fi ber on electric vertical takeo and landing and rials of a fi ber optic-based sensing copters’ four main rotor blades. Fiber optics would likely be embedded with- technology fitted to helicopter Bragg gratings, a type of reflector in the blade. Work on developing plans urban air mobility, a small cadre believes rotor blades could pave the way within the optics, were used to mon- for the Bladesense 2 project began in I HOO T extreme short takeoff and landing and MIT’s 30%-scale unmanned model to extended blade life and, if successful, itor local environmental parameters January. But there is more to do, notes W regional services could be easier to certify and more even support future generations of ro- at key points along the blade length. Weber, including the drafting of re- showed the STOL performance potential torcraft fl ight control systems. The changes in blade shape alter the search proposals. economically viable in the near term. of distributed electric propulsion. A technology that was originally con- wavelength of the light emitted down Nonetheless, the prospects for the ceived to speed up international com- the optic. technology are bright, Weber suggests. It is a view that harks back to the 1970s and a vision of used full-span slotted fl aps to defl ect the slipstream from munications has been adapted for this The fiber optics have significant Airbus believes the concept could pro- short-haul transportation using short-takeo -and-landing four oversize propellers. usage, which means it could now help advantages over electrical systems: vide significant advantages for pre- (STOL) airliners as an answer to the growing problems of Power came from four Turbomeca Turmo turboprops, engineers understand the complexities They are much lighter, have a higher dictive maintenance of the blades if congestion and noise at major airports. Both NASA and the each with a free turbine driving a master shaft running of blade dynamics and their shape in reliability and are durable even when installed on customer aircraft, giving FAA saw quiet, clean STOL aircraft as a way to make better through the wing. Connected by a shaft to each propeller, this the harsh, challenging environment of subjected to the forces experienced by them longer installed life as well as re- use of airports that were becoming hemmed in by urbaniza- master shaft ensured power from the engines was distrib- a main rotor system, providing an en- rotor blades. ducing operational costs and increas- tion. But with the technology available then, the economics uted equally to the props. If an engine failed, its free turbine hanced capability over strain-sensing “Strain sensing using fi ber Bragg ing aircraft availability. The technolo- did not work out. was isolated, but the propeller kept turning. systems currently in use . grating is not necessarily a novel sys- gy could also lead to the development Fast-forward to the 2020s, and proponents see in electric The 941 fi rst fl ew in 1961, and in 1964 demonstrated it could The development of the Bladesense tem . . . but shape sensing, on the other of health- and usage-monitoring sys- propulsion a way to enable the potential of STOL—and see fl y between heliports at Issy-les-Moulineaux in Paris and project has been carried out with the hand, is very new,” Weber says. “The tems for blades—although there have in STOL a way to unlock the benefi ts of electric propulsion Allee Verte in downtown Brussels. The 941 and production support of Airbus Helicopters, BHR project was very ambitious, given our been very few composite main rotor that is less technically challenging and more economically 941S conducted two U.S. tours, in 1964- 65 as the McDonnell Group, Cranfi eld University and Heli- funding and resources, but we did blade failures, unlike their metal and rewarding in the near term. 188 and again in 1968-69 as the McDonnell Douglas 188, in- tune. The program has been funded achieve a lot.” wood predecessors. For military he- With electric vertical takeo and landing (eVTOL), the cluding demonstrations for American and Eastern Airlines. with £2 million ($2.49 million) by the The process was also challenged by licopters, the technology could warn opportunity is in bringing air transportation closer to the No airline order was forthcoming, cost of operation being Aerospace Technology Institute and the need to collect data from balance pilots if an aircraft’s blades have been customer by enabling operations from convenient urban one factor. But research continued, and NASA in 1978 fl ew Innovate UK . positions on the aircraft that would damaged by enemy fi re or degraded vertiports. The challenges are in the energy required for the Quiet Short-haul Research Aircraft (QSRA). This was Technical aspects of the work have not be infl uenced by vibrational loads, by the environment during landings vertical fl ight and the criticality of a propulsion system that a de Havilland Canada DHC-5 Bu alo transport modifi ed been led by Airbus Helicopters engi- so Weber and the Bladesense team in dusty conditions. provides both lift and fl ight control. with a new wing and four Avco Lycoming YF102 turbofans neer Simone Weber, who began work developed an assembly using oš -the- Bladesense could also be an invalu- With electric STOL (eSTOL), the opportunities are in providing upper-surface blowing. The QSRA was retired in on the proposals in 2016 and finally shelf components that sits above the able tool for prototyping new blades, lowering the energy density and airworthiness certifi cation 1993, but it contributed to the design of the Boeing C-17. saw the concept brought to life during blades in a static position. validating aeroelastic instruments hurdles. But the challenge is in providing fi eld performance There are electric STOL aircraft flying today. Califor- ground trials on an H135 twin-engine Inside are the interrogation devices and helping helicopter engineers suŽ ciently short to enable operations from the same verti- nia startup Pyka is using unmanned eSTOL aircraft for light helicopter in November 2019 . that collect data from the sensors. better understand blade dynamics, ports that eVTOL urban air taxis would use. Enter distribut- crop-dusting operations in New Zealand. Powered by three Bladesense was developed to look The assembly also includes batteries particularly as blade shapes become ed electric propulsion (DEP) and powered-lift STOL, where 20-kW electric motors on the wing and tail, Pyka’s produc- for deformations in the blade and as- because the system could not take more complex and manufacturers propellers and aerodynamics interact to enable high lift at tion aircraft can take o and land in 150 ft. and carry a 625- sess the blade condition in fl ight. Nor- power from the aircraft due to its introduce active blade systems. The low airspeed. Together, they o er the potential for extreme lb. payload. The design does not use powered lift but has a mally, such deformations can be found temporary fitment, a wireless con- technology’s monitoring of dynamics STOL performance with lower weight and cost. sailplane-like wing with full-span fl aps for high lift at low only in controlled environments with nection so that data can be collected could also help inform future flight The Breguet 941 turboprop transport of the 1960s is a good speed. With a cruise speed of 90 mph and battery swaps specialist equipment. in real time, and a power management control systems, especially for future example of both the capability and complexity of powered-lift between fl ights, the aircraft can cover 85-135 acres per hour. For the trials, fi ber optics were outfi t- system to prevent the system from rotorcraft using active or morphing STOL aircraft using conventional propulsion. Designed to At the other end of the spectrum is the Metro Hop con- ted down the length of two of the heli- overheating. Data was collected during blades, Weber suggests. c take o in 185 m (607 ft.) carrying up to 60 people, the 941 cept for a two-seat eSTOL able to take o and land in 200 ft.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 4 PROPULSION

A Pyka electric STOL unmanned aircraft is being used for crop dusting in New Zealand.

PYKA

and fly a 990-lb. payload 100 mi. at 250 mph. The initial ap- Faradair aims to compete mainly with helicopters, flying plication envisaged is express delivery of medical supplies faster, farther and more efficiently with less noise. “We see from central warehouses to local hospitals, says CEO Bruno the BEHA doing 90% of the mission a large helicopter can Mombrinie. Being designed for the California startup by the do,” Cloughley says. e-Genius electric aircraft team at the University of Stuttgart, The planned first member of the family is the MH1, a 55-ft.- Germany, the Metro Hop is simple in concept but has some span aircraft capable of quick change between 18 passengers, unique features. three LD3 cargo containers or 5 metric tons of payload. Far- To take off from a flight deck atop a warehouse, electric adair is completing design optimization and hopes, funding motors in the main wheels first accelerate the aircraft to permitting, to fly a full-scale prototype by early 2024 and 60 mph in 4-5 sec., then active landing-gear legs push the certify the MH1 by 2025-26. The startup has struggled to nose up to rotate for takeoff. To land with the precision re- secure private funding or government support in the UK, quired, the aircraft measures the distance to the flight deck but Cloughley says interest has picked up recently, mainly and extends the motorized landing gear to meet the ground from offshore sources. when over the landing mark. Wing lift is then spoiled to put John Langford, founder and former CEO of Aurora weight on the wheels and brakes used to decelerate. Cargo Flight Sciences, has launched Electra.Aero to develop a and battery swap would be robotic. UK startup Faradair is taking a different approach to STOL region- al transport with its Bio Electric Hybrid Aircraft (BEHA) concept. Designed to take off and land in un- der 985 ft., the BEHA has a triple box wing for high lift—three staggered lifting surfaces joined at the tips by vertical stabilizers. “Our modeling analysis shows the aircraft is still lifting at 40 kt., at 16-deg. angle-of-at- tack and a lift-to-drag ratio similar to a [Boeing] 747,” says Neil Cloughley, Faradair managing director. Propulsion is provided by a 1,600- shp turbine engine and 500-kW Faradair’s BEHA transport features a triple box electric motor driving a contraro- tating fan in a duct that increases wing that provides high lift at low speed. thrust and reduces noise as well as FARADAIR providing vectored thrust for flight control. Takeoff is primarily done on batteries to reduce super-STOL (SSTOL) hybrid-electric aircraft for regional noise and emissions, transitioning to the turbine to cruise mobility using DEP and powered lift. He is working with a and recharge the batteries, which provides a reserve power team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) capability in case of engine failure, he says. that has been studying SSTOL as an alternative to eVTOL Design cruise speed is 200 kt. At a higher speed, the drag for urban air mobility (UAM). penalty from the wings and duct would be too great. But Using propulsion for both lift and control in an eVTOL

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION

A Pyka electric STOL unmanned aircraft is being raises the criticality of power failure. This requires increased This allows use of a mechanically simple single-slotted flap, used for crop dusting in New Zealand. redundancy and complexity, which add cost and weight reducing the weight and cost of the high-lift system com- to the aircraft and time to the certification process, says pared with previous blown-lift aircraft, he says. Christopher Courtin, a graduate student at MIT. A fixed- The goals of MIT’s subscale testing were to determine if wing SSTOL would be comparable to existing single-engine high lift could be achieved in flight, to assess the handling aircraft in a failure scenario, providing an established path- qualities and look at the effect of changing propeller diame- way to certification, he says. ter on the efficiency of turning the flow. Motors were even- Among the benefits of SSTOL over eVTOL, Courtin lists ly spaced along the wing leading edge. In takeoff mode, all performance and the ability to use smaller motors, leaving eight were controlled together by a single throttle lever. In more weight fraction for energy storage or passenger ca- landing mode, the inner six motors—which provided most pacity. The lower thrust-to-weight and higher lift-to-drag of the blowing—were controlled via a knob, while the outer ratios of an SSTOL versus an eVTOL aircraft are expected pair were modulated by the throttle. to increase speed, range and payload capability. The team tested the aircraft with 9-in.-dia. two-blade and MIT has been studying a four-seat SSTOL as an alter- 7-in.-dia. five-blade propellers. Significantly slower flight native to eVTOL for infrastructure-constrained UAM. “If speeds were achieved with the smaller props. “This was takeoff and landing distances can be made comparable to the likely because the smaller jet is more effectively deflected by the flap, which enables more lift Active landing-gear legs and motorized wheels with lower power,” Courtin says. At low speeds, the aircraft’s lat- provide Metro Hop’s STOL performance. PYKA eral handling qualities degraded, making it difficult to control. “It and fly a 990-lb. payload 100 mi. at 250 mph. The initial ap- Faradair aims to compete mainly with helicopters, flying was hard to keep the aircraft in plication envisaged is express delivery of medical supplies faster, farther and more efficiently with less noise. “We see steady flight, which made it hard from central warehouses to local hospitals, says CEO Bruno the BEHA doing 90% of the mission a large helicopter can to measure CL,” he says. “But the Mombrinie. Being designed for the California startup by the do,” Cloughley says. five-blade prop gave the best high- e-Genius electric aircraft team at the University of Stuttgart, The planned first member of the family is the MH1, a 55-ft.- lift performance, pretty repeatable Germany, the Metro Hop is simple in concept but has some span aircraft capable of quick change between 18 passengers, up around a CLmax of 10.” unique features. three LD3 cargo containers or 5 metric tons of payload. Far- The subscale aircraft took off in To take off from a flight deck atop a warehouse, electric adair is completing design optimization and hopes, funding about twice its own length, with a motors in the main wheels first accelerate the aircraft to permitting, to fly a full-scale prototype by early 2024 and nearly level liftoff attitude. “This 60 mph in 4-5 sec., then active landing-gear legs push the certify the MH1 by 2025-26. The startup has struggled to indicates that the takeoff distance nose up to rotate for takeoff. To land with the precision re- secure private funding or government support in the UK, of the aircraft was limited by the quired, the aircraft measures the distance to the flight deck but Cloughley says interest has picked up recently, mainly rotation rate that the unblown tail and extends the motorized landing gear to meet the ground from offshore sources. is able to generate at low airspeed,” when over the landing mark. Wing lift is then spoiled to put John Langford, founder and former CEO of Aurora Courtin says. Takeoff CLmax was weight on the wheels and brakes used to decelerate. Cargo Flight Sciences, has launched Electra.Aero to develop a not that high. “This suggests that and battery swap would be robotic. METRO HOP the ground roll of this aircraft is UK startup Faradair is taking a size of a vertiport, there may be substantial benefit to using limited by the control power of the horizontal tail,” he says. different approach to STOL region- SSTOL aircraft for many of the proposed urban air mobil- The aircraft was difficult to handle because of low dy- al transport with its Bio Electric ity missions,” Courtin told the American Institute of Aero- namic pressure over the control surfaces. At high flap Hybrid Aircraft (BEHA) concept. nautics and Astronautics SciTech conference in January. deflections and CL, upwash from the flap ends induced Designed to take off and land in un- DEP can enable extreme short-field performance by mount- the wing to stall at that location. As a result, a significant der 985 ft., the BEHA has a triple box ing propellers along the wing leading edge so that they blow the portion of each aileron was in separated flow, reducing roll wing for high lift—three staggered trailing-edge flaps along most of the span. Based on wind-tun- control authority. lifting surfaces joined at the tips by nel tests, the MIT team believes takeoff and landing ground The tail was also a factor, its ability to trim the aircraft vertical stabilizers. “Our modeling rolls of less than 100 ft. can be achieved using DEP-powered limiting the achievable lift coefficient. “Control strategies analysis shows the aircraft is still lift, short enough to be competitive with eVTOL. for this aircraft, both in how to generate sufficient control lifting at 40 kt., at 16-deg. angle-of-at- “It needs a maximum lift coefficient L[C max] of 7-12 to be authority and how to translate pilot inputs into actuator tack and a lift-to-drag ratio similar to feasible. That is well beyond what we can get without a blown movements, are an important area of research going for- a [Boeing] 747,” says Neil Cloughley, wing,” says Courtin. “In the wind tunnel we saw a CLmax of ward,” says Courtin. Faradair managing director. about 9, but we were not confident we would see that in flight, Langford’s Electra is working with the MIT team, led Propulsion is provided by a 1,600- so we decided to go to a subscale aircraft.” by professors Mark Drela and John Hansman, on the next shp turbine engine and 500-kW Faradair’s BEHA transport features a triple box With funding from Aurora, the MIT team in 2019 flew steps. These will begin by flying a full-scale, two-seat con- electric motor driving a contraro- a 30%-scale unmanned model of their conceptual SSTOL. cept demonstrator, within a year of COVID-19 restrictions tating fan in a duct that increases wing that provides high lift at low speed. Weighing less than 40 lb. and with a span of 13 ft., this had lifting, to address control challenges and show the potential thrust and reduces noise as well as eight propellers on the wing leading edge, single-slotted flaps of hyper-STOL. FARADAIR providing vectored thrust for flight and partially blown ailerons, as well as a conventional tail. The team is looking at four-, nine-, 19- and 35-seaters and control. Takeoff is primarily done on batteries to reduce super-STOL (SSTOL) hybrid-electric aircraft for regional Blown-wing aircraft such as the Breguet 941 use wing flaps conducting market studies on which to launch first. Langford noise and emissions, transitioning to the turbine to cruise mobility using DEP and powered lift. He is working with a to deflect the propeller slipstream. This increases lift, both sees an opportunity between small urban air taxis and large and recharge the batteries, which provides a reserve power team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) by turning the propeller jet and by suppressing the sepa- regional jets for aircraft that can take off “in a couple of capability in case of engine failure, he says. that has been studying SSTOL as an alternative to eVTOL ration of airflow over the wing and flaps. Compared with hundred feet” and fly 50-500-mi. stage lengths, a market now Design cruise speed is 200 kt. At a higher speed, the drag for urban air mobility (UAM). turboprops, DEP allows the use of many small propellers. dominated by automobiles. The short-haul transportation penalty from the wings and duct would be too great. But Using propulsion for both lift and control in an eVTOL The small jets they produce increase blowing effectiveness. promise of the Breguet 941 may yet be realized. c

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 51 UNMANNED AVIATION

Drone Services Promoted in copter capable of delivering a box of food weighing up to 6.6 lb. over a dis- U.S. Pandemic Battle tance of 3.5 mi. and back, can also sup- port social-distancing requirements, the company contends. > UPS FLIGHT FORWARD ANNOUNCES NEW SERVICES “We want to help with exposure to ZIPLINE FOCUSES ON CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA this virus,” Wes Shover, Flytrex head > of U.S. operations, said on the webcast. “We know that our aircraft is highly Bill Carey Washington reliable, and we just want to make an impact. As fast as possible, we’re look- concerted effort to expand March 2019. UPS created a drone sub- ing to deploy in high-risk areas.” the ways drones can fight the sidiary, UPS Flight Forward, last July Long-distance drone delivery oper- A COVID-19 coronavirus pandem- and announced in October that it had ator Zipline, one of the participants in ic in the U.S. took a few steps forward received the nation’s first FAA Part the NCDOT webcast, provided more and at least one step back in late April. 135 Standard air carrier certificate details on its plan with Novant Health With reference to the “First in Flight” for a drone operation. to launch a delivery service this year motto that adorns license plates in the UPS Flight Forward is now seeking in Charlotte, North Carolina. state, the North Carolina Department waivers from the FAA to fly COVID-19 Deploying Zipline’s fixed-wing, cat- of Transportation (NCDOT) is advanc- test samples by drone from a hospital apult-launched drones would require ing initiatives to deliver COVID-19 test to a testing facility in the Winston- a $5 million capital investment for an samples by drone from collection points Salem area of the state. The program operating base and warehouse situat- to laboratories. The initiative also sup- would operate in collaboration with ed on 10-12 acres of land, with 15 full- ports delivery of food, prescription Wake Forest Baptist Health. time employees, Joe Marshall, Zipline

medicines and other supplies FLYTREX director of flight operations, from retail sites and warehouses said on the webcast. to housing complexes and senior “We’re actively working to citizen communities. assess flight routes, which are Similar to many states, North static to maximize the level Carolina has imposed social of safety related to airborne distancing measures that pro- and ground hazards,” said hibit mass gatherings and dine- Marshall. “Prior to flying in in restaurant services to contain this region and other regions, the spread of the novel coronavi- we will have an extensive out- rus. On May 5, Gov. Roy Cooper reach with the local community signed an order easing some re- to drive awareness and trust.” strictions but prohibiting gath- Just as North Carolina’s ef- erings of more than 10 people. fort to use drones in the pan- On April 24, the NCDOT demic response appeared to hosted a webcast during which advance, a pilot project that three of its industry partners A Flytrex multirotor drone delivering takeout food. drone manufacturer Dragan- under the FAA’s Unmanned fly announced on April 21 with Aircraft Systems Integration Pilot Separately, UPS has received the police department of Westport, Program (UAS IPP) described what FAA approval to use Matternet’s M2 Connecticut, was canceled within days they can do to move needed supplies quadcopter to deliver prescription following a public outcry. during the pandemic—assuming fed- medicines from a CVS pharmacy to a Draganfly, the University of South eral regulatory approvals. landing site near The Villages retire- Australia and health care data company Julie White, NCDOT deputy secre- ment community in central Florida. Vital Intelligence are developing a “pan- tary for multimodal transportation, The service, designed to support so- demic drone” that combines a special- recalled that North Carolina deployed cial distancing by keeping residents at ized sensor with computer vision image drones to monitor road conditions home, began in May. analysis to detect coughing, sneezing and floodwaters after Hurricanes Another IPP partner—Flytrex of and potential infectious conditions of Florence in 2018 and Dorian in 2019. Tel Aviv—has developed a takeout de- COVID-19 from a distance of 190 ft. “We are no stranger to using our livery service connecting a shopping “While the development of the pro- UAS program during a crisis,” White center with a recreational complex in gram is not moving forward in West- said on the webcast. “We consider Holly Springs, North Carolina. The port, this was a valuable learning ex- ourselves a national leader in deploy- company started delivering food pack- perience,” Draganfly CEO Cameron ment of UAS in hurricanes.” ages by drone in Reykjavik, Iceland, Chell stated in a press release. “We Under the FAA pilot program, UPS in 2018. More recently, the company are looking forward to evaluating les- and drone manufacturer Matternet initiated operations in Israel and in sons learned so the practice of social have transported blood samples at the Grand Forks, North Dakota—the lat- distancing has the right policies and WakeMed Health and Hospitals cam- ter through an IPP partnership. procedures in place to support this pus in Raleigh, North Carolina, since Flytrex’s service, which uses a hexa- life-saving technology.” c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST UNMANNED AVIATION CARGO

Drone Services Promoted in copter capable of delivering a box of food weighing up to 6.6 lb. over a dis- U.S. Pandemic Battle tance of 3.5 mi. and back, can also sup- LIFT port social-distancing requirements, the company contends. TECHNOLOGY > UPS FLIGHT FORWARD ANNOUNCES NEW SERVICES “We want to help with exposure to ZIPLINE FOCUSES ON CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA this virus,” Wes Shover, Flytrex head > of U.S. operations, said on the webcast. “We know that our aircraft is highly Bill Carey Washington reliable, and we just want to make an impact. As fast as possible, we’re look- concerted effort to expand March 2019. UPS created a drone sub- ing to deploy in high-risk areas.” the ways drones can fight the sidiary, UPS Flight Forward, last July Long-distance drone delivery oper- A COVID-19 coronavirus pandem- and announced in October that it had ator Zipline, one of the participants in ic in the U.S. took a few steps forward received the nation’s first FAA Part the NCDOT webcast, provided more and at least one step back in late April. 135 Standard air carrier certificate details on its plan with Novant Health With reference to the “First in Flight” for a drone operation. to launch a delivery service this year motto that adorns license plates in the UPS Flight Forward is now seeking in Charlotte, North Carolina. state, the North Carolina Department waivers from the FAA to fly COVID-19 Deploying Zipline’s fixed-wing, cat- of Transportation (NCDOT) is advanc- test samples by drone from a hospital apult-launched drones would require > UNILODE IS INSTALLING BLUETOOTH ing initiatives to deliver COVID-19 test to a testing facility in the Winston- a $5 million capital investment for an samples by drone from collection points Salem area of the state. The program operating base and warehouse situat- TRACKING TECHNOLOGY to laboratories. The initiative also sup- would operate in collaboration with ed on 10-12 acres of land, with 15 full- ports delivery of food, prescription Wake Forest Baptist Health. time employees, Joe Marshall, Zipline > CEVA LOGISTICS INTRODUCES medicines and other supplies FLYTREX director of flight operations, AUTOMATED MOBILE ROBOTS from retail sites and warehouses said on the webcast. to housing complexes and senior “We’re actively working to citizen communities. assess flight routes, which are > SITA IS WORKING ON BLOCKCHAIN LE Similar to many states, North static to maximize the level PROJECTS FOR CARGO Carolina has imposed social of safety related to airborne distancing measures that pro- and ground hazards,” said hibit mass gatherings and dine- Marshall. “Prior to flying in Helen Massy-Beresford Paris in restaurant services to contain this region and other regions, Unilode is installing Bluetooth track- the spread of the novel coronavi- we will have an extensive out- ir cargo operators are in the spotlight as the COVID-19 ing technology to boost transparency. rus. On May 5, Gov. Roy Cooper reach with the local community pandemic rages on, and the vital role the sector plays signed an order easing some re- to drive awareness and trust.” step in meeting the needs of custom- strictions but prohibiting gath- Just as North Carolina’s ef- in transporting essential medical supplies and other ers, too, he adds. erings of more than 10 people. fort to use drones in the pan- goods across the globe is highlighting the importance “The shipper expects a seamless On April 24, the NCDOT demic response appeared to A and reliable supply chain these days, of longer-term e
orts to make use of innovative technologies hosted a webcast during which advance, a pilot project that especially in the air cargo industry three of its industry partners A Flytrex multirotor drone delivering takeout food. drone manufacturer Dragan- to boost e ciency and transparency. with critical and high-value goods,” under the FAA’s Unmanned fly announced on April 21 with van Geest says. “Shippers really expect Aircraft Systems Integration Pilot Separately, UPS has received the police department of Westport, Players from all segments of the air between di
erent partners within the this transparency, and if the air cargo Program (UAS IPP) described what FAA approval to use Matternet’s M2 Connecticut, was canceled within days cargo supply chain have been investi- air cargo supply chain. In other words, industry cannot provide this, they will they can do to move needed supplies quadcopter to deliver prescription following a public outcry. gating how technologies such as arti- the technology helps forwarders, car- fi nd a way to do it themselves.” during the pandemic—assuming fed- medicines from a CVS pharmacy to a Draganfly, the University of South fi cial intelligence (AI), blockchain, ro- riers, ground handlers and ULD man- That said, the Bluetooth technology eral regulatory approvals. landing site near The Villages retire- Australia and health care data company botics and Bluetooth can improve the agers, like Unilode, to integrate their has to be integrated into the ULDs in Julie White, NCDOT deputy secre- ment community in central Florida. Vital Intelligence are developing a “pan- e ciency of their operations for some processes more seamlessly . such a way that it avoids obstructing tary for multimodal transportation, The service, designed to support so- demic drone” that combines a special- time. But the crisis has underlined the “In aviation, innovation is good, but daily operations. It also needs to be recalled that North Carolina deployed cial distancing by keeping residents at ized sensor with computer vision image signifi cance of these endeavors. it has to be reliable,” explains Martijn well-protected against damage and drones to monitor road conditions home, began in May. analysis to detect coughing, sneezing For Unilode Aviation Solutions, van Geest, managing director of digi- loss in a rough environment. and floodwaters after Hurricanes Another IPP partner—Flytrex of and potential infectious conditions of which owns 140,000 unit load devices tal transformation at Unilode. “As well as geotracking, we also Florence in 2018 and Dorian in 2019. Tel Aviv—has developed a takeout de- COVID-19 from a distance of 190 ft. (ULD), innovation does not just equate “That’s one of the main reasons wanted to have additional sensors in “We are no stranger to using our livery service connecting a shopping “While the development of the pro- to brand-new technology at all costs. we decided to use the Bluetooth place that give us information on tem- UAS program during a crisis,” White center with a recreational complex in gram is not moving forward in West- The Zurich-based company, which standard,” he says. “It’s exactly the perature, humidity or shock exposure said on the webcast. “We consider Holly Springs, North Carolina. The port, this was a valuable learning ex- serves more than 45 airlines, is seek- same technology that you fi nd in ev- and a light sensor so that you can iden- ourselves a national leader in deploy- company started delivering food pack- perience,” Draganfly CEO Cameron ing to improve reliability and trans- ery mobile phone. This has multiple tify when a container has been opened ment of UAS in hurricanes.” ages by drone in Reykjavik, Iceland, Chell stated in a press release. “We parency by installing Bluetooth track- advantages—reliability and interop- during the supply chain process—giv- Under the FAA pilot program, UPS in 2018. More recently, the company are looking forward to evaluating les- ing technology on its ULDs. Unilode erability. What is innovative about ing more transparency [to see] if things and drone manufacturer Matternet initiated operations in Israel and in sons learned so the practice of social accounts for around one-eighth of the the project is more around the de- are missing or broken,” van Geest says. have transported blood samples at the Grand Forks, North Dakota—the lat- distancing has the right policies and world ULD fl eet. sign and how it is integrated within “The data is really at your fi ngertips. WakeMed Health and Hospitals cam- ter through an IPP partnership. procedures in place to support this Bluetooth provides accurate and air cargo operations.” You can see within seconds if a contain- pus in Raleigh, North Carolina, since Flytrex’s service, which uses a hexa- life-saving technology.” c live data that can improve cooperation Improving transparency is a vital er has been opened or a shipment has

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 5 CARGO

“In the e-commerce sector, this kind Robotics have sped up operations at of technology has been particularly ef- CEVA Logistics’ Melbourne site. ficient,” says Mathieu Friedberg, CEO CEVA LOGISTICS CEVA of CEVA Logistics. “We achieved a 400% increase in the speed of opera- tions in less than a month from ‘go live.’” The deployment of eight robots across a 400 m2 trial space comes at a key juncture for the e-commerce industry. Prepandemic, e-commerce was seen as a growth driver for an in- dustry facing obstacles in the form of trade wars and geopolitical uncer- tainty, with knock-on effects in sectors such as manufacturing. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has missed a flight, meaning you can take tem used to track them has been highlighted the value of being able to corrective action to ensure that the only partially digitized and relies on ship goods quickly and reliably across supply chain is not disrupted.” incomplete data sharing and record the globe. Dire economic forecasts In addition to improving the service keeping, Fabre adds. around the world will affect consumer for shippers, Unilode’s tracking tech- “For any given shipment, there spending, but e-commerce operators nology, which the company is putting can be up to 12 custodian companies are expected to continue to benefit in place in conjunction with its hard- monitoring and tracking the cargo,” from a change in shopping habits. ware, software and ULD manufac- he says. “Many rely on paper docu- The increased data-processing ca- turer partners, can help improve the ments, making the process cumber- pacity of the AI-driven robotics tech- sustainability of the air cargo supply some and undermined by trust and nology has a positive impact not only chain, van Geest says. transparency issues.” on productivity but also on workers’ “If you are going to do something, However, the use of blockchain comfort and workload, Friedberg says. do it right the first time,” he says. “It technology could revolutionize that CEVA Logistics is looking to roll out will save you money in the long run process, Fabre asserts. “Knowing the the technology to other e-commerce and [help you] avoid going around in location of all ULDs at all times, and sites within its network and sees sim- circles. From that perspective, creat- therefore their cargo, means compa- ilar technologies continuing to gain ing a more efficient process with this nies can accurately track where loss ground within the broader industry. technology will reduce unnecessary or damage occurs and recover the “I think this crisis will have a lasting use of resources of any type and con- costs without dispute,” he notes. impact on consumer habits—for sure, tribute to greater sustainability.” SITA and ULD Care are working on e-commerce is one of the major benefi- SITA, an air transport information a proof-of-concept plan that will extend ciaries of the crisis, and that will stay,” technology (IT) and communications and upgrade the current ULD inter- Friedberg says. “In fulfillment on the specialist, is also working with ULDs, lining platform to include nonairline [business-to-consumer] side, artificial but the Geneva-based firm is doing so third parties such as ground handlers intelligence, automation and robotics through the prism of a different tech- through open application program in- will be more and more important be- nology: blockchain. terfaces. The two partners are working cause they provide enormous comput- In its latest blockchain project, in with four major airlines and the proj- ing capacities, which help us deliver conjunction with trade association ect is due to be delivered by the end of the efficiency and the productivity ULD Care, SITA is exploring how the third quarter of 2020, a target they required to provide customers with blockchain can be used to digitally are keeping despite the current coro- the service level they expect.” track and record change of custody for navirus-related industry disruption. Anthony Florian, Honeywell vice airline cargo containers throughout “The platform also has the poten- president for airlines in Europe, the their journey. The endeavor to weave tial to provide a wide range of au - Middle East, Africa and India, agrees blockchain into the fabric of air cargo thentication and trust-based benefits, that the pandemic will drive long-term operations carries with it estimated reducing the risk of tampering, cyber- demand for e-commerce operations. potential savings of $400 million a crime, trade-based money laundering, “The implementation of prolonged year for the industry. fraud and illicit trade,” Fabre says. social distancing and stay-at-home SITA chose to focus on ULDs be- For the air cargo industry to im- measures worldwide have a significant cause that part of the supply chain prove efficiency, new technologies effect on e-commerce,” he says. “Mil- is simpler than others. ULDs also of- need to be deployed at all points in lions of people around the world who fer a huge potential for savings, says the supply chain—on the ground as otherwise have not experimented with Sebastien Fabre, vice president of well as onboard aircraft. online purchasing are now becoming portfolio management for airline and CEVA Logistics has deployed auto- more dependent on e-commerce.” airports at SITA. mated mobile robots at its 250,000 m2 In that context, smarter cockpits Although more than 1.2 million Truganina super site near Melbourne, for cargo and better connectivity for ULDs are in use by airlines, the sys- Australia. cargo crews will help ensure cargo

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST CARGO

“In the e-commerce sector, this kind aircraft can continue to fly without crucial for air cargo operators to be “We need to really start working as Robotics have sped up operations at of technology has been particularly ef- downtime, Florian says. “Many cargo able to anticipate maintenance needs.” an industry toward this mindset and CEVA Logistics’ Melbourne site. ficient,” says Mathieu Friedberg, CEO operators fly older flight management The company is introducing Honey- getting this transparency in place,” van CEVA LOGISTICS CEVA of CEVA Logistics. “We achieved a systems (FMS) with limited memory,” well Forge with several cargo opera- Geest says. “Blockchain would mean all 400% increase in the speed of opera- he notes. “This can require them to tors and says the platform can help relevant information on all participants tions in less than a month from ‘go live.’” maintain and load multiple databas- them by analyzing data streaming in the sector would be available. That’s The deployment of eight robots es for different regions. That wastes from aircraft components to anticipate a huge step, but shippers are expecting across a 400 m2 trial space comes at precious time, especially when aircraft maintenance needs. “The same system it, and we have to go down that road.” a key juncture for the e-commerce are shuttling supplies to multiple re- also delivers advice on routes and SITA also sees applications for industry. gions in a single day.” thrust settings to help cargo airlines blockchain in other areas of air cargo Prepandemic, e-commerce was Honeywell recently sold 16 Pegasus fly more efficient fleets,” Florian adds. such as developing “certificates of seen as a growth driver for an in- II Upgrades to a major cargo carrier. Looking beyond the coronavirus origin” for transported goods and en- dustry facing obstacles in the form The upgrades boost the memory ca- crisis to longer-term innovations, hancing financial processes (including of trade wars and geopolitical uncer- pacity and functionality of FMS in Unilode also believes blockchain may automatic payment or delay penalties) tainty, with knock-on effects in sectors Boeing 757s and 767s. Meanwhile, the change the way the sector operates. and the cargo booking process. Fur- such as manufacturing. company is also developing cockpit “Blockchain technology will play ther ahead, SITA believes collabora- Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has retrofits on Airbus A300s for another a key role in the future in improving tion between different technologies is missed a flight, meaning you can take tem used to track them has been highlighted the value of being able to major cargo carrier. And it has been transparency as well as boosting per- crucial. “In innovative digital technolo- corrective action to ensure that the only partially digitized and relies on ship goods quickly and reliably across upgrading the software of communi- formance and efficiency,” van Geest gy solutions, it’s often the combination supply chain is not disrupted.” incomplete data sharing and record the globe. Dire economic forecasts cation management units on Boeing says. “But if you create true block- of multiple technologies that maximiz- In addition to improving the service keeping, Fabre adds. around the world will affect consumer aircraft and the air traffic services chains, you need to get to the next es the delivered value,” Fabre says. for shippers, Unilode’s tracking tech- “For any given shipment, there spending, but e-commerce operators units on Airbus aircraft. level of transparency within the car- “In the future of air cargo, we imag- nology, which the company is putting can be up to 12 custodian companies are expected to continue to benefit Improved predictive maintenance go industry: sharing all relevant data ine a ‘convergence’ and a world where in place in conjunction with its hard- monitoring and tracking the cargo,” from a change in shopping habits. can also help boost cargo efficiency, with all partners. I think that still re- data will be captured by Internet of ware, software and ULD manufac- he says. “Many rely on paper docu- The increased data-processing ca- Florian says. “Any downtime can be quires a substantial change of mindset Things, mobile and electronic data turer partners, can help improve the ments, making the process cumber- pacity of the AI-driven robotics tech- detrimental to cargo planes as ship- toward [a] willingness to share such interchange systems; managed by sustainability of the air cargo supply some and undermined by trust and nology has a positive impact not only ments will be delayed, incurring a data. But I think it’s more of a ‘when’ blockchain; and automated using ar- chain, van Geest says. transparency issues.” on productivity but also on workers’ huge cost to operators,” he says. “It is question than an ‘if.’ tificial intelligence,” Fabre adds. c “If you are going to do something, However, the use of blockchain comfort and workload, Friedberg says. do it right the first time,” he says. “It technology could revolutionize that CEVA Logistics is looking to roll out will save you money in the long run process, Fabre asserts. “Knowing the the technology to other e-commerce and [help you] avoid going around in location of all ULDs at all times, and sites within its network and sees sim- circles. From that perspective, creat- therefore their cargo, means compa- ilar technologies continuing to gain Topics focus on key components driving ing a more efficient process with this nies can accurately track where loss ground within the broader industry. the industry: technology will reduce unnecessary or damage occurs and recover the “I think this crisis will have a lasting The future of aerospace manufacturing and use of resources of any type and con- costs without dispute,” he notes. impact on consumer habits—for sure, our new normal tribute to greater sustainability.” SITA and ULD Care are working on e-commerce is one of the major benefi- Operations: systems integration and agile SITA, an air transport information a proof-of-concept plan that will extend ciaries of the crisis, and that will stay,” manufacturing technology (IT) and communications and upgrade the current ULD inter- Friedberg says. “In fulfillment on the How automation and digitalization are specialist, is also working with ULDs, lining platform to include nonairline [business-to-consumer] side, artificial transforming manufacturing but the Geneva-based firm is doing so third parties such as ground handlers intelligence, automation and robotics How suppliers need to adopt and adapt to the new manufacturing era through the prism of a different tech- through open application program in- will be more and more important be- Additive manufacturing in aerospace from a nology: blockchain. terfaces. The two partners are working cause they provide enormous comput- strategic business perspective In its latest blockchain project, in with four major airlines and the proj- ing capacities, which help us deliver How can innovation around manufacturing conjunction with trade association ect is due to be delivered by the end of the efficiency and the productivity AUGUST 25-26, 2020 contribute to job creation and workforce diversity Charleston, SC ULD Care, SITA is exploring how the third quarter of 2020, a target they required to provide customers with blockchain can be used to digitally are keeping despite the current coro- the service level they expect.” Who benefits from attending? track and record change of custody for navirus-related industry disruption. Anthony Florian, Honeywell vice Designed for leaders and decision-makers from OEMs to Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, airline cargo containers throughout “The platform also has the poten- president for airlines in Europe, the Supplier Tiers in the Aerospace Manufacturing Industry material and parts suppliers their journey. The endeavor to weave tial to provide a wide range of au - Middle East, Africa and India, agrees Supply chain executives and senior decision makers blockchain into the fabric of air cargo thentication and trust-based benefits, that the pandemic will drive long-term The SpeedNews 8th Annual Aerospace Manufacturing Conference will bring together Strategic planning, marketing executives and operations carries with it estimated reducing the risk of tampering, cyber- demand for e-commerce operations. leading manufacturers and suppliers in the aerospace industry to present updates and business development leaders potential savings of $400 million a crime, trade-based money laundering, “The implementation of prolonged developments in manufacturing operations, capabilities and processes, innovation within Executives in production, operations, research manufacturing, modern machining technologies, and automation. year for the industry. fraud and illicit trade,” Fabre says. social distancing and stay-at-home & development, technology and engineering SITA chose to focus on ULDs be- For the air cargo industry to im- measures worldwide have a significant Delegates will gain a full understanding of the latest trends, challenges and forecasts in the cause that part of the supply chain prove efficiency, new technologies effect on e-commerce,” he says. “Mil- aerospace manufacturing industry, and be provided with insider knowledge and examples is simpler than others. ULDs also of- need to be deployed at all points in lions of people around the world who of products that can have a direct impact on their own operations and improve their fer a huge potential for savings, says the supply chain—on the ground as otherwise have not experimented with productivity and profitability. Sebastien Fabre, vice president of well as onboard aircraft. online purchasing are now becoming 2901 28th Street, Suite 100 portfolio management for airline and CEVA Logistics has deployed auto- more dependent on e-commerce.” Register and Learn More at: Santa Monica, CA 90405, USA 2 airports at SITA. mated mobile robots at its 250,000 m In that context, smarter cockpits Conf.Events/AMC Tel: +1-310-857-7691 • Email: [email protected] Although more than 1.2 million Truganina super site near Melbourne, for cargo and better connectivity for ULDs are in use by airlines, the sys- Australia. cargo crews will help ensure cargo

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Saving the Aerospace Supply Chain By John Byrne

he aerospace supply chain is unlike any other. It is broad, complex and deeply tiered, and at the bot- Ttom it depends on thousands of small suppliers, of- ten referred to as Tier 3 and 4, many of which are privately owned. This supply chain feeds commercial production, defense programs and the aftermarket, and most suppli- ers support all three segments. In the past 17 years, the commercial aerospace industry has grown to record production levels. The defense indus- try has benefited from the commercial boom, capitalizing on the scale and volume for lower costs and establishing pay to play approaches on new programs. Both the U.S. and Europe have the same relationships between commer- GE AVIATION cial volumes and their defense industries. craft scrapped, a cash payment and a credit for purchas- Although the industry has been through many crises— ing a new airplane would be granted, and free trade would economic shocks, wars, the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, be in place: U.S. carriers could purchase from European self-induced program delays—the impact of COVID-19 will or U.S. OEMs and vice versa. The right balance for air pas- be more severe and extensive than any previous down- senger demand, existing capacity (including parked jets) and new production could be managed until stability and a viable level of demand can be achieved. Additional capability to scrap and recycle aircraft would INCENTIVIZE AIRCRAFT RETIREMENTS be established, creating job opportunities and maintaining the workforce for the future. The remaining in-service TO SPUR DEMAND FOR NEW ONES. fleets would be more fuel-efficient. That would have the added benefit of addressing climate change without bur- dening the industry with new regulations to reduce carbon emissions and demonstrate that Europe and the U.S. can turn. Airlines have too many aircraft and have grounded work together on climate. Operational reliability, service most of their fleets, forcing aircraft OEMs to lower pro- and comfort levels would be improved, a positive for both duction rates and reduce capacity. Oil prices and leasing airlines and their passengers. rates have plummeted, further dampening demand for The current approaches that the U.S. Treasury, Con- new airplanes. As the pain trickles down, the lower tiers gress and aviation industry leaders seem to be putting of the supply chain will be hit especially hard on both sides forth to address the devastating economic impact of the of the Atlantic. coronavirus are worthy, but they are focused on creating This is an opportunity to take an international approach a bridge to an unknown recovery date and work from the to solving the problem COVID-19 is creating. A NATO-cen- top down. That’s a good start, but it will not help the sup- tric effort that would stabilize and protect the economic ply chain anytime soon. In an industry built on long cy- and defense security of all partners is needed, the U.S. and cles, loans and a Paycheck Protection Program will not be Europe, Airbus and Boeing working together for the com- enough to carry small suppliers through. If Europe goes mon good. with different solutions, complexity will be created, and There are debates about what the recovery will look synergies will be lost. like, but past experience will be of little use. The future is The aerospace industry is complex and sophisticated, a guessing game. One tool is available today, though, that especially concerning the financials around producing, could hasten the industry’s eventual recovery: decisive buying, owning and operating commercial airplanes. We action to speed the retirement of older aircraft. Clearing need something different to attack this challenge. fleets of older models would help bridge the disconnect be- Accelerating aircraft retirements is no panacea by itself, tween demand and supply by incentivizing airlines to or- but the COVID-19 pandemic calls for bold and innovative der new aircraft more quickly when airline travel returns. steps. I have worked for more than three decades in the The U.S. and European governments are well-posi- aerospace supply chain. If our recovery is protracted, the tioned to help the aviation industry. Stabilizing and ac- foundation of our industry will be further weakened, en- celerating the return of true demand to the commercial dangering our long-term competitiveness and economic industry will stabilize and strengthen the defense capabili- and national security. It is time for governments, airlines, ties for NATO. Government support for airlines and OEMs leasing companies, financiers, OEMs and suppliers to join could include provisions that encourage airlines to scrap forces. A quicker recovery will be better for all. c older airplanes. In exchange, they would receive funding to pay for operations and employee salaries. John Byrne is an advisor at Pasayten Advisors. He was vice presi- How would it work? Each aircraft has a market value dent of supplier management for aircraft materials and structures that has been determined by the industry. For each air- at Boeing from 2011 to 2017.

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 18-31, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST VIEWPOINT

Saving the Aerospace Supply Chain By John Byrne he aerospace supply chain is unlike any other. It is broad, complex and deeply tiered, and at the bot- Ttom it depends on thousands of small suppliers, of- ten referred to as Tier 3 and 4, many of which are privately owned. This supply chain feeds commercial production, defense programs and the aftermarket, and most suppli- ers support all three segments. In the past 17 years, the commercial aerospace industry has grown to record production levels. The defense indus- try has benefited from the commercial boom, capitalizing on the scale and volume for lower costs and establishing pay to play approaches on new programs. Both the U.S. and Europe have the same relationships between commer- GE AVIATION cial volumes and their defense industries. craft scrapped, a cash payment and a credit for purchas- Although the industry has been through many crises— ing a new airplane would be granted, and free trade would economic shocks, wars, the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, be in place: U.S. carriers could purchase from European self-induced program delays—the impact of COVID-19 will or U.S. OEMs and vice versa. The right balance for air pas- be more severe and extensive than any previous down- senger demand, existing capacity (including parked jets) and new production could be managed until stability and a viable level of demand can be achieved. Additional capability to scrap and recycle aircraft would INCENTIVIZE AIRCRAFT RETIREMENTS be established, creating job opportunities and maintaining the workforce for the future. The remaining in-service TO SPUR DEMAND FOR NEW ONES. fleets would be more fuel-efficient. That would have the added benefit of addressing climate change without bur- dening the industry with new regulations to reduce carbon emissions and demonstrate that Europe and the U.S. can turn. Airlines have too many aircraft and have grounded work together on climate. Operational reliability, service most of their fleets, forcing aircraft OEMs to lower pro- and comfort levels would be improved, a positive for both duction rates and reduce capacity. Oil prices and leasing airlines and their passengers. rates have plummeted, further dampening demand for The current approaches that the U.S. Treasury, Con- new airplanes. As the pain trickles down, the lower tiers gress and aviation industry leaders seem to be putting of the supply chain will be hit especially hard on both sides forth to address the devastating economic impact of the of the Atlantic. coronavirus are worthy, but they are focused on creating This is an opportunity to take an international approach a bridge to an unknown recovery date and work from the to solving the problem COVID-19 is creating. A NATO-cen- top down. That’s a good start, but it will not help the sup- tric effort that would stabilize and protect the economic ply chain anytime soon. In an industry built on long cy- and defense security of all partners is needed, the U.S. and cles, loans and a Paycheck Protection Program will not be Europe, Airbus and Boeing working together for the com- enough to carry small suppliers through. If Europe goes mon good. with different solutions, complexity will be created, and There are debates about what the recovery will look synergies will be lost. like, but past experience will be of little use. The future is The aerospace industry is complex and sophisticated, ● a guessing game. One tool is available today, though, that especially concerning the financials around producing, could hasten the industry’s eventual recovery: decisive buying, owning and operating commercial airplanes. We action to speed the retirement of older aircraft. Clearing need something different to attack this challenge. ● fleets of older models would help bridge the disconnect be- Accelerating aircraft retirements is no panacea by itself, tween demand and supply by incentivizing airlines to or- but the COVID-19 pandemic calls for bold and innovative ● der new aircraft more quickly when airline travel returns. steps. I have worked for more than three decades in the The U.S. and European governments are well-posi- aerospace supply chain. If our recovery is protracted, the tioned to help the aviation industry. Stabilizing and ac- foundation of our industry will be further weakened, en- celerating the return of true demand to the commercial dangering our long-term competitiveness and economic industry will stabilize and strengthen the defense capabili- and national security. It is time for governments, airlines, ties for NATO. Government support for airlines and OEMs leasing companies, financiers, OEMs and suppliers to join could include provisions that encourage airlines to scrap forces. A quicker recovery will be better for all. c older airplanes. In exchange, they would receive funding to pay for operations and employee salaries. John Byrne is an advisor at Pasayten Advisors. He was vice presi- How would it work? Each aircraft has a market value dent of supplier management for aircraft materials and structures that has been determined by the industry. For each air- at Boeing from 2011 to 2017.

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