Chapter Two FORECASTS AIRPORT MASTER PLAN The definition of demand that may be reasonably expected to occur during the useful life of an airport’s key components (e.g., runways, taxiways, terminal buildings, etc.) is an important factor in facility plan‐ ning. In airport master planning, this involves projecting aviation activity for at least a 20‐year timeframe. Aviation demand forecasting for the Grand Canyon National Park Airport (GCN or Airport) will consider commercial passenger enplanements (boardings), based aircraft, and aircraft operations. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has oversight responsibility to review and approve aviation forecasts developed in conjunction with airport planning studies. In addition, aviation activity forecasts may be an important input to future benefit‐cost analyses associated with airport development, and the FAA reviews these analyses when federal funding requests are submitted. The FAA will review individual airport forecasts with the objective of comparing them to its Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) and the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). Even though the TAF is updated annually, in the past there was almost always a disparity between the TAF and master plan‐ ning forecasts. This was primarily because the TAF forecasts did not consider local conditions or recent trends. In recent years, however, the FAA has improved its forecast model to be a demand‐driven fore‐ cast for aviation services based upon local and national economic conditions, as well as conditions within the aviation industry. DRAFT Chapter Two 2-1 The TAF projections of passenger enplanements and commercial operations at large, medium, and small hub airports are based on a bottom‐up approach. The domestic enplanements are forecast by generat‐ ing origin and destination (O&D) market demand forecasts using the Department of Transportation’s (DOT) quarterly 10 percent sample data to model passenger flow on a quarterly basis. The O&D passenger demand forecasts are based on regression analysis using fares, regional de‐ mographics, and regional economic factors as the independent variables. The O&D forecasts are then combined with DOT T‐100 segment data to generate passenger forecasts by airport pair and segment pair. The segment pair passenger forecasts are assigned to aircraft equipment in order to produce seg‐ ment pair operation forecasts. The quarterly segment pair forecasts are aggregated to produce annual airport forecasts. Forecasts of itinerant general aviation operations and local civil operations at FAA facilities are based primarily on time series analysis. Because military operations forecasts have national security implica‐ tions, the Department of Defense (DOD) provides only limited information on future aviation activity. Hence, the TAF projects military activity at its present level except when FAA has specific knowledge of a change. For instance, DOD may announce a base closing or may shift an Air Force wing from one base to another. As stated in FAA Order 5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS), forecasts should be: • Realistic; • Based on the latest available data; • Reflective of current conditions at the airport (as a baseline); • Supported by information in the study; and • Able to provide adequate justification for airport planning and development. The FAA Terminal Area Forecasts published in January 2016 were utilized to supplement the Master Plan forecasting effort. A summary of those forecasts are presented in Table 2A. The following sections of this chapter will test the reasonableness of each forecast from the TAF as well as develop updated fore‐ casts for use in this Master Plan. DRAFT Chapter Two 2-2 TABLE 2A 2016 FAA Terminal Area Forecast Grand Canyon National Park Airport 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ENPLANEMENTS Air Carrier 13,178 13,178 13,178 13,178 13,178 13,178 Commuter 103,555 99,052 99,052 99,052 99,052 99,052 Total Enplanements 116,733 112,230 112,230 112,230 112,230 112,230 ANNUAL OPERATIONS Itinerant Air Carrier 106 110 115 115 115 115 Air Taxi 102,063 107,237 112,689 118,419 124,443 130,773 General Aviation 2,874 2,688 2,728 2,768 2,808 2,848 Military 601 601 601 601 601 601 Total Itinerant 105,644 110,636 116,133 121,903 127,967 134,337 Local General Aviation 846 908 928 948 968 992 Military 562 562 562 562 562 562 Total Local 1,408 1,470 1,490 1,510 1,530 1,554 Total Operations 107,052 112,106 117,623 123,413 129,497 135,891 Based Aircraft 38 40 41 41 41 41 Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast (Jan. 2016) SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS Local and regional forecasts of key socioeconomic variables, such as population, employment, income, and gross regional product (GRP) provide an indication of the potential for growth in aviation activities at an airport. Exhibit 2A summarizes the socioeconomic history and projections for Coconino County and the state of Arizona. Population estimates and projections were gathered from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division; and the Arizona Department of Administration – Employment and Popula‐ tion Statistics. Data for employment, income, and GRP was taken from Woods & Poole Complete Eco‐ nomic and Demographic Data Source (CEDDS), 2016. Population in Coconino County grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6 percent between 1970 and 2010. In the past five years, the CAGR has slowed to 1.0 percent. Population in the County is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 0.8 percent through 2035 to 164,844. This growth rate is behind what is projected for the entire state, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.5 percent through 2035. Employment in the County grew at a 3.6 percent CAGR between 1970 and 2010. Similar to population, that rate slowed in the past five years to 1.3 percent. Employment in the County is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.7 percent through 2035, which matches the projected CAGR for employment in that state. Per capita personal income (PCPI) inflation‐adjusted to 2009 dollars dipped as a result of the recession years, but has grown each of the past three years. Inflation‐adjusted PCPI is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.4 percent for the County and the state through 2035. DRAFT Chapter Two 2-3 This page intentionally left blank DRAFT Chapter Two 2-4 AIRPORT MASTER PLAN Population Employment Income - PCPI ($2009) Gross Regional Product ($millions) ARIZONA POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 10 Coconino Coconino Coconino Coconino Historical Projected Arizona County Arizona County Arizona County Arizona County Arizona Population YEAR 8 Arizona Employment 1970 1,775,399 48,326 746,654 20,148 17,875 14,602 39,361 963 6 1980 2,718,425 75,008 1,282,615 35,163 21,905 17,953 71,736 1,778 1990 3,665,228 96,591 1,894,098 48,542 25,496 21,039 107,402 2,484 4 People (in millions) People 2000 5,130,632 116,320 2,808,568 70,053 31,923 29,003 199,448 3,929 2 2010 6,392,017 134,421 3,205,898 82,751 33,440 33,271 243,723 5,228 CAGR 1970-2010 3.3% 2.6% 3.7% 3.6% 1.6% 2.1% 4.7% 4.3% 0 1990‘851980‘751970 ‘95 2000 ‘05 2010 ‘15 ‘352030‘252020 2011 6,438,178 134,162 3,265,071 81,983 34,097 33,146 247,902 5,218 COUNTY POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 200 2012 6,498,569 134,313 3,320,848 82,723 34,531 32,941 255,985 5,290 Historical Projected Coconino County Population 2013 6,581,054 135,695 3,391,722 84,725 34,456 33,478 261,778 5,423 Coconino County Employment 150 2014 6,667,241 139,372 3,461,988 86,500 35,054 34,052 269,909 5,553 2015 6,758,251 141,602 3,532,928 88,284 35,642 34,626 278,042 5,685 100 CAGR 2010-2015 1.1% 1.0% 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 2.7% 1.7% People (in thousands) People 2020 7,346,800 149,769 3,886,240 97,122 38,608 37,509 320,854 6,341 50 2025 7,944,800 156,363 4,250,546 106,137 41,787 40,577 368,353 7,021 2030 8,535,900 161,021 4,618,924 115,160 44,785 43,481 420,117 7,710 0 1970 ‘75 1990‘851980 ‘95 2030‘252020‘152010‘052000 ‘35 2035 9,128,900 164,844 4,988,431 124,096 47,432 46,102 476,348 8,401 INCOME 50 CAGR 2015-2035 1.5% 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 2.7% 2.0% Historical Projected CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate 40 GRP - Gross Regional Product PCPI - Per Capita Personal Income 30 20 Dollars (in thousands) 10 1990‘851980‘751970 ‘95 2000 ‘05 2010 ‘15 ‘352030‘252020 Sources: Historical population (1970-2010) from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division Historical population (2011-2015) and population projections from the Arizona Department of Administration - Employment and Population Statistics Coconino County Per Capita Personal Income Employment, Income, and Gross Regional Product from Woods & Poole Complete Economic and Demographic Data Source (CEDDS) 2016. Arizona Per Capita Personal Income Exhibit 2A DRAFT Chapter Two 2-5 SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS This page intentionally left blank DRAFT Chapter Two 2-6 Gross regional product (GRP) is similar to gross domestic product, but on a regional rather than national level. It is also adjusted for inflation to 2009 dollars. GRP for the County dipped from 2010 to 2011 as a result of the recession, but has also recovered and shown growth for the past four years.