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Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and Impacts on Southeast African Rainfall

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Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and Impacts on Southeast African Rainfall 15 JANUARY 2020 B A R I M A L A L A E T A L . 749 Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and Impacts on Southeast African Rainfall RONDROTIANA BARIMALALA,ROSS C. BLAMEY,FABIEN DESBIOLLES, AND CHRIS J. C. REASON Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa (Manuscript received 5 April 2019, in final form 10 October 2019) ABSTRACT The Mozambique Channel trough (MCT) is a cyclonic region prominent in austral summer in the central and southern Mozambique Channel. It first becomes evident in December with a peak in strength in February when the Mozambique Channel is warmest and the Mascarene high (MH) is located farthest southeast in the Indian Ocean basin. The strength and the timing of the mean MCT are linked to that of the cross-equatorial northeasterly monsoon in the tropical western Indian Ocean, which curves as northwesterlies toward northern Madagascar. The interannual variability in the MCT is associated with moist convection over the Mozam- bique Channel and is modulated by the location of the warm sea surface temperatures in the south Indian Ocean. Variability of the MCT shows a strong relationship with the equatorial westerlies north of Madagascar and the latitudinal extension of the MH. Summers with strong MCT activity are characterized by a prominent cyclonic circulation over the Mozambique Channel, extending to the midlatitudes. These are favorable for the development of tropical–extratropical cloud bands over the southwestern Indian Ocean and trigger an in- crease in rainfall over the ocean but a decrease over the southern African mainland. Most years with a weak MCT are associated with strong positive south Indian Ocean subtropical dipole events, during which the subcontinent tends to receive more rainfall whereas Madagascar and northern Mozambique are anoma- lously dry. 1. Introduction (Cook et al. 2004; Munday and Washington 2017). The MCT is found to be generated by a dynamical adjustment Climate variability over southern Africa is driven by a of the easterlies flowing over the topography of Mada- complex interaction between large-scale climate forcings gascar and may also be sustained by local air–sea inter- such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), regional action due to the relatively warm SST over the channel sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and regional at- (Barimalala et al. 2018). mospheric circulation systems [e.g., the Angola low (AL) The MCT is located near the source of the south Indian and Botswana high (BH)] at various temporal scales Ocean convergence zone (SICZ; Cook 2000), a dominant (Lindesay 1988; Nicholson and Kim 1997; Reason et al. driver of southern African rainfall (Cook 2000; Lazenby 2000; Behera and Yamagata 2001; Reason and Rouault et al. 2016), and thus modulates the moisture transport 2002; Reason 2001, 2016; Blamey et al. 2018; Driver et al. within the SICZ as well as the mean rainfall over the 2019; Desbiolles et al. 2018; Crétat et al. 2019). An im- subcontinent (Barimalala et al. 2018).Theroleofthe portant regional circulation system, although not well MCT in the distribution and frequency of rainfall events is understood, is the Mozambique Channel trough (MCT), however not well understood. Cook et al. (2004) analyzed characterized by a low pressure area over the central and wet and dry spells over South Africa and found that a southern Mozambique Channel during austral summer cyclonic feature off the east coast could drive moisture away from the mainland, thus leading to a decrease in Supplemental information related to this paper is available at rainfall. By using output from phase 5 of the Coupled the Journals Online website: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19- Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), Munday and 0267.s1. Washington (2017) found that models with weak MCT tend to contain a strong positive rainfall bias over south- Corresponding author: Rondrotiana Barimalala, rondrotiana. ern Africa. They indicate that enhanced direct moisture [email protected] inflow from the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0267.1 Ó 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 10:05 PM UTC 750 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 33 strengthens the Angola low and favors the increase in dataset (HadISST; Rayner et al. 2003;18318 horizontal rainfall over the subcontinent, if the MCT is weak. In a resolution) and NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave recent study, Barimalala et al. (2018) used a set of ide- radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (Liebmann alized numerical experiments with the Weather Research and Smith 1996;2.5832.58 horizontal resolution). Forecasting (WRF) regional model in which the topog- raphy of Madagascar was flattened. They found that a b. Methodology flattening of the topography over Madagascar results in In sections 3a and 3b, we analyze the annual cycle weakening of the MCT. They also confirmed that a and interannual variability of the trough. The MCTrv weak (strong) MCT strengthens (weakens) the SICZ, and index is defined as the area averaged of the relative hence favors (weakens) the transport of moisture from vorticity at 850 hPa over the southern Mozambique SWIO toward mainland southern Africa, leading to an Channel (Barimalala et al. 2018). For comparison, we also increase (decrease) in local rainfall. In addition, these make use of the 850-hPa geopotential height (MCThgt) authors proposed that the persisting rainfall bias over averaged over the same area, as an alternative index to southern Africa in the state-of-the art climate models characterize the annual cycle and variability of the MCT. (e.g., Munday and Washington 2017, 2018) could be due An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is to a poor representation of the MCT in those models. conducted to confirm that these MCT indices represent Moreover, recent work by Pascale et al. (2019) shows the dominant mode of variability in the channel. that a weakening of the MCT leads to stronger northerly To investigate the processes that drive the variability moisture flux from the tropical Indian Ocean penetrating in the MCTrv, analysis of the vorticity budget is per- to the African mainland, which then strengthens the formed in section 3b, with the corresponding equation Angola low and triggers an increase in regional rainfall. described in the online supplemental material. These studies indicate that the MCT likely plays a key An analysis on the links between the MCT and the role in southern African climate variability. However, northeast (NE) monsoon flow that exists in the austral despite being a prominent circulation in the area, the summer across the tropical western Indian Ocean is also mean state and variability of the trough, to our knowl- performed. In doing so, four indices are defined to char- edge, have never thoroughly investigated. Moreover, acterize the flow from the tropical western Indian Ocean little to no work has been focused on the impacts of the toward eastern Africa. They are defined as follows: MCT on southern African rainfall, especially at time scales other than climatology. Thus, the main objective (i) VN, mean meridional wind averaged over 408–508E of this study is to investigate the mean state, annual at 18S(Fig. 1b); cycle, and interannual variability of the MCT and its (ii) VS, same as VN but farther to the south, at 98S relationships with regional rainfall. (Fig. 1b); (iii) UW, mean zonal wind that penetrates into south- ern African mainland (Fig. 1b, between 18 and 128S 2. Data and methodology at 388E); and (iv) UE, mean zonal wind over the northern Mozambi- a. Data que channel that flows toward Madagascar (Fig. 1b, ThedatausedtoanalyzetheMCTseasonalityand between 98 and 158Sat448E). variability are monthly low-level (at 850 hPa) relative The roles of large-scale forcing and regional circula- vorticity, geopotential height, specific humidity, total tion patterns on the interannual variability of the cloud cover, wind, and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) MCT are analyzed in section 3d by using the following represented in the ERA-Interim reanalysis (Dee et al. indices: 2011) for the period of 1980–2017. These data have a horizontal resolution of 0.75830.758. Rainfall data were d NINO34, area averaged SST anomaly within 1908– obtained from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Pre- 2408E, 58S–58N(Trenberth and Stepaniak 2001). cipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data at 0.05830.058 d The oceanic Niño index (ONI) from the National horizontal resolution (Funk et al. 2015), available for Centers for Environmental Prediction is used to de- 1981–2017, and from the Climate Prediction Center Merged termine the presence of El Niño/La Niña events. Such Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin 1997), an event is characterized by a 3-month running mean at 1.25831.258 horizontal resolution, for 1980–2017 to in- of NINO34 that exceeds the threshold 60.58C for five vestigate the link between the MCT and regional rainfall consecutive overlapping seasons. variability. Included in the analysis are SST data from the d Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), the SST anomaly dif- Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature ference between one pole averaged over 508–708E, Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 10:05 PM UTC 15 JANUARY 2020 B A R I M A L A L A E T A L . 751 21 FIG. 1. (a)–(f) Monthly 850-hPa wind (vectors; m s ) and geopotential height (shaded; m) from November to April, respectively. In (b), the lines demarcate where the zonal/meridional flow linked to the NE monsoon is determined (see text). UW refers to zonal wind penetrating into mainland, UE is zonal wind recurving toward Madagascar, VN is cross-equatorial northeasterly monsoon, and VS is meridional wind reaching the north of Madagascar.
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