Chapter 10: Cyclones: East of the Rocky Mountain
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CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS a Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Re
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in Geography By Ilya Neyman May 2013 The thesis of Ilya Neyman is approved: _______________________ _________________ Dr. Steve LaDochy Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. Ron Davidson Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. James Hayes, Chair Date California State University, Northridge ii TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE ii ABSTRACT iv INTRODUCTION 1 THESIS STATEMENT 12 IMPORTANT TERMS AND DEFINITIONS 13 LITERATURE REVIEW 17 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 24 TRADITIONALLY RECOGNIZED TORNADIC PARAMETERS 28 CASE STUDY 1: SEPTEMBER 10, 2011 33 CASE STUDY 2: JULY 29, 2003 48 CASE STUDY 3: JANUARY 19, 2010 62 CASE STUDY 4: MAY 22, 2008 91 CONCLUSIONS 111 REFERENCES 116 iii ABSTRACT FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS By Ilya Neyman Master of Arts in Geography Thunderstorms are a significant forecasting concern for southern California. Even though convection across this region is less frequent than in many other parts of the country significant thunderstorm events and occasional severe weather does occur. It has been found that a further challenge in convective forecasting across southern California is due to the variety of sub-regions that exist including coastal plains, inland valleys, mountains and deserts, each of which is associated with different weather conditions and sometimes drastically different convective parameters. In this paper four recent thunderstorm case studies were conducted, with each one representative of a different category of seasonal and synoptic patterns that are known to affect southern California. In addition to supporting points made in prior literature there were numerous new and unique findings that were discovered during the scope of this research and these are discussed as they are investigated in their respective case study as applicable. -
Waves in the Westerlies
Operational Weather Analysis … www.wxonline.info Chapter 9 Waves in the Westerlies Operational meteorologists track middle latitude disturbances in the middle to upper troposphere as part of their analysis of the atmosphere. This chapter describes these waves and highlights the importance of these waves to day-to-day weather changes at the Earth’s surface. The Westerlies Atmospheric flow above the Earth’s surface in the middle latitudes is primarily westerly. That is, the winds have a prevailing westerly component with numerous north and south meanders that impose wave-like undulations upon the basic west- to-east flow. This flow extends from the subtropical high pressure belt poleward to around 65 degrees latitude. A glance at any upper level chart from 700 mb upward to 200 mb shows that the westerlies dominate in the middle and upper troposphere. The term westerlies will refer to this layer unless otherwise specified. Upper Level Charts The westerlies are easily identified on charts of constant pressure in the middle to upper troposphere. That is, charts are prepared from upper level data at specified pressure levels (called standard levels). Traditionally, lines are drawn on these charts to represent the height of the pressure surface above mean sea level, temperature, and, on some charts, wind speed. With modern computer workstations, any observed or derived parameter may be drawn on an upper level chart. Standard levels include charts for 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250, 200, 150 and 100 mb. For our discussion of the westerlies, only levels from 700 mb upward to 200 mb will be considered. -
An Examination of the Mesoscale Environment of the James Island Memorial Day Tornado
19.6 AN EXAMINATION OF THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT OF THE JAMES ISLAND MEMORIAL DAY TORNADO STEVEN B. TAYLOR NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE CHARLESTON, SC 1. INTRODUCTION conditions also induced weak cyclogenesis along the front near the vicinity of KVDI. By 1200 UTC A cluster of severe thunderstorms the surface low was located between KNBC and moved across portions of south coastal South KCHS. This low and its influences on the Carolina during the early morning hours of 30 kinematic environment as well as the eventual May 2006. Around 1135 UTC, a severe position of the surface frontal boundary will prove thunderstorm spawned an F-1 tornado in the to be the main contributing factors leading to the James Island community of Charleston, SC. The development of the James Island tornado. tornado produced wind and structural damage as it moved rapidly NE through several residential neighborhoods. The tornado was on the ground for approximately 0.1 mi before it emerged into the Atlantic Ocean as a large waterspout near the entrance to the Charleston Harbor. Timely tornado warnings were issued by the NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office (WFO) in Charleston, SC (CHS), despite the event occurring during a climatologically rare time of day. This study will concentrate on the mesoscale factors that supported the genesis of the tornado and its parent severe thunderstorm. Radar data generated by the KCLX WSR-88D will also be presented. 2. SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT The synoptic environment supported the development of scattered convective precipitation Fig 1. Map of eastern SC/GA across much of the coastal areas of the Carolinas and Georgia. -
ESSENTIALS of METEOROLOGY (7Th Ed.) GLOSSARY
ESSENTIALS OF METEOROLOGY (7th ed.) GLOSSARY Chapter 1 Aerosols Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Sulfur-containing fossil fuels, such as coal, produce sulfate aerosols. Air density The ratio of the mass of a substance to the volume occupied by it. Air density is usually expressed as g/cm3 or kg/m3. Also See Density. Air pressure The pressure exerted by the mass of air above a given point, usually expressed in millibars (mb), inches of (atmospheric mercury (Hg) or in hectopascals (hPa). pressure) Atmosphere The envelope of gases that surround a planet and are held to it by the planet's gravitational attraction. The earth's atmosphere is mainly nitrogen and oxygen. Carbon dioxide (CO2) A colorless, odorless gas whose concentration is about 0.039 percent (390 ppm) in a volume of air near sea level. It is a selective absorber of infrared radiation and, consequently, it is important in the earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Solid CO2 is called dry ice. Climate The accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time. Front The transition zone between two distinct air masses. Hurricane A tropical cyclone having winds in excess of 64 knots (74 mi/hr). Ionosphere An electrified region of the upper atmosphere where fairly large concentrations of ions and free electrons exist. Lapse rate The rate at which an atmospheric variable (usually temperature) decreases with height. (See Environmental lapse rate.) Mesosphere The atmospheric layer between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. -
The Effects of Diabatic Heating on Upper
THE EFFECTS OF DIABATIC HEATING ON UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLOGENESIS by Ross A. Lazear A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN - MADISON 2007 i Abstract The role of diabatic heating in the development and maintenance of persistent, upper- tropospheric, large-scale anticyclonic anomalies in the subtropics (subtropical gyres) and middle latitudes (blocking highs) is investigated from the perspective of potential vorticity (PV) non-conservation. The low PV within blocking anticyclones is related to condensational heating within strengthening upstream synoptic-scale systems. Additionally, the associated convective outflow from tropical cyclones (TCs) is shown to build upper- tropospheric, subtropical anticyclones. Not only do both of these large-scale flow phenomena have an impact on the structure and dynamics of neighboring weather systems, and consequently the day-to-day weather, the very persistence of these anticyclones means that they have a profound influence on the seasonal climate of the regions in which they exist. A blocking index based on the meridional reversal of potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause is used to identify cases of wintertime blocking in the North Atlantic from 2000-2007. Two specific cases of blocking are analyzed, one event from February 1983, and another identified using the index, from January 2007. Parallel numerical simulations of these blocking events, differing only in one simulation’s neglect of the effects of latent heating of condensation (a “fake dry” run), illustrate the importance of latent heating in the amplification and wave-breaking of both blocking events. -
The Use of Hyperspectral Sounding Information to Monitor Atmospheric Tendencies Leading to Severe Local Storms
PUBLICATIONS Earth and Space Science RESEARCH ARTICLE The use of hyperspectral sounding information 10.1002/2015EA000122-T to monitor atmospheric tendencies leading Key Points: to severe local storms • Hyperspectral sounders add independent information to Elisabeth Weisz1, Nadia Smith1, and William L. Smith Sr.1 existing data sources • Time series of retrievals provides 1Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA valuable details to storm analysis • Forecasters are encouraged to utilize hyperspectral data Abstract Operational space-based hyperspectral sounders like the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer, and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder on polar-orbiting satellites provide radiance measurements from which profiles of atmospheric temperature and moisture can Correspondence to: be retrieved. These retrieval products are provided on a global scale with the spatial and temporal resolution E. Weisz, [email protected] needed to complement traditional profile data sources like radiosondes and model fields. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how existing efforts in real-time weather and environmental monitoring can benefit from this new generation of satellite hyperspectral data products. We investigate how retrievals from all four Citation: Weisz, E., N. Smith, and W. L. Smith Sr. operational sounders can be used in time series to monitor the preconvective environment leading up to the (2015), The use of hyperspectral sounding outbreak of a severe local storm. Our results suggest thepotentialbenefit of independent, consistent, and information to monitor atmospheric fi tendencies leading to severe local high-quality hyperspectral pro le information to real-time monitoring applications. storms, Earth and Space Science, 2, doi:10.1002/2015EA000122-T. -
Synoptic Meteorology
Lecture Notes on Synoptic Meteorology For Integrated Meteorological Training Course By Dr. Prakash Khare Scientist E India Meteorological Department Meteorological Training Institute Pashan,Pune-8 186 IMTC SYLLABUS OF SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY (FOR DIRECT RECRUITED S.A’S OF IMD) Theory (25 Periods) ❖ Scales of weather systems; Network of Observatories; Surface, upper air; special observations (satellite, radar, aircraft etc.); analysis of fields of meteorological elements on synoptic charts; Vertical time / cross sections and their analysis. ❖ Wind and pressure analysis: Isobars on level surface and contours on constant pressure surface. Isotherms, thickness field; examples of geostrophic, gradient and thermal winds: slope of pressure system, streamline and Isotachs analysis. ❖ Western disturbance and its structure and associated weather, Waves in mid-latitude westerlies. ❖ Thunderstorm and severe local storm, synoptic conditions favourable for thunderstorm, concepts of triggering mechanism, conditional instability; Norwesters, dust storm, hail storm. Squall, tornado, microburst/cloudburst, landslide. ❖ Indian summer monsoon; S.W. Monsoon onset: semi permanent systems, Active and break monsoon, Monsoon depressions: MTC; Offshore troughs/vortices. Influence of extra tropical troughs and typhoons in northwest Pacific; withdrawal of S.W. Monsoon, Northeast monsoon, ❖ Tropical Cyclone: Life cycle, vertical and horizontal structure of TC, Its movement and intensification. Weather associated with TC. Easterly wave and its structure and associated weather. ❖ Jet Streams – WMO definition of Jet stream, different jet streams around the globe, Jet streams and weather ❖ Meso-scale meteorology, sea and land breezes, mountain/valley winds, mountain wave. ❖ Short range weather forecasting (Elementary ideas only); persistence, climatology and steering methods, movement and development of synoptic scale systems; Analogue techniques- prediction of individual weather elements, visibility, surface and upper level winds, convective phenomena. -
Chapter 16 Extratropical Cyclones
CHAPTER 16 SCHULTZ ET AL. 16.1 Chapter 16 Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece a b c d DAVID M. SCHULTZ, LANCE F. BOSART, BRIAN A. COLLE, HUW C. DAVIES, e b f g CHRISTOPHER DEARDEN, DANIEL KEYSER, OLIVIA MARTIUS, PAUL J. ROEBBER, h i b W. JAMES STEENBURGH, HANS VOLKERT, AND ANDREW C. WINTERS a Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom b Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York c School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York d Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland e Centre of Excellence for Modelling the Atmosphere and Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom f Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland g Atmospheric Science Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin h Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah i Deutsches Zentrum fur€ Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut fur€ Physik der Atmosphare,€ Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ABSTRACT The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the in- ternational collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. -
The Oakfield, Wisconsin, Tornado from 18-19 July 1996
The Oakfield, Wisconsin, Tornado from 18-19 July 1996 Brett Berenz Student at the University of Wisconsin Abstract On July 18th, 1996 an F5 tornado affected the region of Oakfield, Wisconsin. Leading up to the tornado, a warm moist air mass was in place at the surface. Along with veering winds and a cap the mesoscale pieces were in place for a spectacular event. The presence of a dry line as well as a cold front to trigger the severe weather was also in place. Further lifting was enhanced by a jet core aloft and diverging upper level winds. All in all, the storm cut a swath across southern Fond du Lac County and caused millions of dollars in damage while injuring 17 people. 1. Introduction and a clear cut path of for miles. This Wisconsin each year gets its fair storm also brought bouts of heavy rain share of severe weather. One of the and some hail as it moved across east- most memorable severe events on record central Wisconsin. Amazingly nobody in Wisconsin occurred on July 18th, was killed and only 17 people were 1996. At 7:15 p.m. (0015Z) a powerful injured as an entire town was nearly F5 tornado ripped through the tiny town demolished. Personal accounts told of a of Oakfield, Wisconsin, about 5 miles story that most were caught completely southwest of Fond du Lac in Fond du off guard as it had been a bright, warm Lac County. According to a CIMSS and sunny day, and sirens gave way only report damage estimates were around minutes before the actual tornado moved $40 million dollars and 47 of 320 homes into Oakfield. -
Tropical Cyclone: Climatology
ESCI 344 – Tropical Meteorology Lesson 5 – Tropical Cyclones: Climatology References: A Global View of Tropical Cyclones, Elsberry (ed.) The Hurricane, Pielke Tropical Cyclones: Their evolution, structure, and effects, Anthes Forecasters’ Guide to Tropical Meteorology, Atkinsson Forecasters Guide to Tropical Meteorology (updated), Ramage Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, Holland (ed.) Reading: Introduction to the Meteorology and Climate of the Tropics, Chapter 9 A Global View of Tropical Cyclones, Chapter 3 REQUIREMENTS FOR FORMATION In order for a tropical cyclone to form, the following general conditions must be present: Deep, warm ocean mixed layer. ◼ Sea-surface temperature at least 26.5C. ◼ Mixed layer depth of 45 meters or more. Relative maxima in absolute vorticity in the lower troposphere ◼ Need a preexisting cyclonic disturbance. ◼ Must be more than a few degrees of latitude from the Equator. Small values of vertical wind shear. ◼ Disturbance must be in deep easterly flow, or in a region of light upper- level winds. Mean upward vertical motion with humid mid-levels. GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY Note: Most of the statistics given in this section are from Gray, W.M., 1985: Tropical Cyclone Global Climatology, WMO Technical Document WMO/TD-72, Vol. I, 1985. About 80 tropical cyclones per year world-wide reach tropical storm strength ( 34 kts). About 50 – 55 each year world-wide reach hurricane/typhoon strength ( 64 kts). The rate of occurrence globally is very steady. Global average annual variation is small (about 7%). Extreme variations are in the range of 16 to 22%. Variability within a particular region is much larger than global variability. Most (87%) form within 20 of the Equator. -
Track Analysis of Cyclones Related to Tornadoes Over Western Greece
Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology Rhodes, Greece, 3-5 September 2015 TRACK ANALYSIS OF CYCLONES RELATED TO TORNADOES OVER WESTERN GREECE MATSANGOURAS I.T.1,2, NASTOS P.T.1, KOUROUTZOGLOU J.2,3, FLOCAS H.A.3 and HATZAKI M.1 1 Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens, University Campus GR-15784, Athens, Greece, 2 Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Hellinikon GR-16777, Athens, Greece, 3 Department of Environmental Physics-Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Athens, University Campus GR-15784, Athens, Greece E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT Extreme weather phenomena, posing a significant threat to public health, causing injuries and even more fatalities, have been considered of high concern by the scientific community so that to mitigate the impacts and contribute to the adaptation and resilience of the society. Tornadoes and waterspouts have been characterized as the most violent of all small-scale natural phenomena. They are associated with extremely high winds, inside and around the tornado’s funnel, causing extended damage and in many cases loss of life. The goal of this study is to examine the cyclonic tracks associated to the incidence of tornadoes over western Greece, within the cold period of the year, from 2000 to 2012. The Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment (LACAE, http://lacae.geol.uoa.gr) of the University of Athens has undertaken a systematic effort in recording tornadoes, waterspouts, and funnel clouds in Greece since 2007. LACAE developed in 2009 an open-ended online tornado report database web system (http://tornado.geol.uoa.gr), contributing to the compilation of a climatology of these extreme weather events. -
1.11 the Influence of Meteorological Phenomena on Midwest Pm2.5 Concentrations: a Case Study Analysis
1.11 THE INFLUENCE OF METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA ON MIDWEST PM2.5 CONCENTRATIONS: A CASE STUDY ANALYSIS David E. Strohm,* Timothy S. Dye, Clinton P. MacDonald Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA 1. INTRODUCTION 2. PLANETARY-SCALE WEATHER Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) forecasting has Planetary-scale weather features strongly influence become an increasingly important part of air quality regional and local weather. Figure 1 shows the 500-mb public outreach programs designed to inform the public height pattern on September 10, 2003 and illustrates the about air quality conditions, protect public health, and planetary-scale weather features important to the encourage the public to reduce activities that contribute Midwest PM2.5 episode. The figure shows two high- to air pollution. Starting in January 2003, current- and amplitude troughs and a high-amplitude ridge (HAR) in next-day forecasts for PM2.5 were issued for cities place over North America and the North Atlantic. The throughout the United States, including a number of high-amplitude ridge also had an upper-level low- cities in the Midwest: Columbus, Cleveland, and pressure trough to its south (signified by a trough in the Cincinnati, Ohio; Chicago, Illinois; and Detroit, Michigan. 590-dm height contour south of the ridge). This pattern, Through daily forecasts, it became clear that certain called a rex block, persisted for several days because atmospheric phenomena and their impact on PM2.5 the upper-level flow split the high-low couplet. concentrations needed more analysis to better understand the atmospheric mechanics that influence PM2.5 episodes in the Midwest. As a result, a case study of meteorological and air quality conditions was performed for the period of September 9 through September 15, 2003.