CPIG OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES Ethiopia's Tigray Crisis: Causes, Implications and Way Forward Abiyot Geneme Gebre∗ Chair of Comparative Politics, University of Kiel Research Group "The Future of Democracy" CPIG Occasional Paper Series No. 20/12 December 2020 Introduction While much of the world was preoccupied with the elections in the United States, Ethiopia careened toward civil war.1 Since 4 November 2020, Ethiopia's federal state has been entangled in a fierce armed conflict with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) party of the Tigray region. 'The last red line has been crossed with this morning's attacks and the federal government is therefore forced into a military confrontation...to save the country and the region from spiraling instability,' the office of Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's office said in a statement on the declaration of war against the TPLF party on 4 November 2020, citing what it called 'months of provocation and incitement.'2 Since then, the conflict in the Tigray region has escalated to alarming levels as shown in Figure 1. As indicated in Figure 1, the 'Sarajevo' incident that sparked the Ethiopian federal state- TPLF party conflict was the alleged attack by Tigray forces on a military base in the northern command on 4 November 2020.3 Thereafter, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war but camouflaged it as a 'military operation' against the TPLF. The conflict has since spread to the Amhara region and Eritrea with Sudan receiving thousands of refugees from the Tigray region as indicated on the map. As of 28 November 2020, there were reports of heavy shelling in the center of Tigray's capital Mekelle as the army stepped up its conflict with the Tigray People's Liberation Front.4 Prime Minister Abiy's administration has scuttled mediation efforts by the ∗Doctoral Student at Chair of Comparative Politics, CAU Kiel, Email: [email protected] 1Alden Young. (2020). How to think about Ethiopian politics today, Africa is a Country. Available at: https://africasacountry.com/2020/11/how-to-think-about-ethiopian-politics-today 2Ermias Tasfaye Daba and Lesley Wroughton. (2020). The Washington Post. (2020). Ethiopia sends troops into renegade northern province as long-simmering tensions explode, The Washington Post, 4 November 2020. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-military- tplf/2020/11/04/3cd0f4a8-1e90-11eb-ad53-4c1fda49907d-story.html 3The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and Franz Ferdinand's wife Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, occurred on 28 June 1914 in Sarajevo when they were mortally wounded by Gavrilo Princip. The assassination sparked the First World War. 4BBC News. 2020. Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: Army 'enters regional capital of Mekelle' BBC News, 28 November. 1 Figure 1: Major Conflict Events in Ethiopia: November 2020 African Union (AU) and also barred the AU mediation team consisting of former presidents Joachim Chisano (Mozambique), Sirleaf Johnson (Liberia) and Kgalema Motlante (South Africa) from traveling to the conflict zone (Tigray region).5 Against the above described background, this paper seeks to illuminate on the current po- litical and security crisis in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Accordingly, the paper mainly casts light on the causes and local, regional and international ramifications of the crisis. Moreover, the paper provides recommendations to the issues at stake in Tigray. However, it should be underlined that the situation in Tigray is fluid and characterized by swift as well as dramatic changes. For instance, in the evening of 28 November 2020, Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Abiy 'victoriously' announced that the federal troops were in 'full control' of Makelle, the regional capital of Makelle.6 However, the reality is that the conflict seems far from being over as the TPLF/Tigray fighters are likely to retreat and adopt guerrilla warfare characterized by surprise attacks. In terms of its sources, this paper relied mainly on observation, media reports and analysts on Ethiopian politics. The paper is organized this way. The first part gives a brief historical background about Ethiopia in general and Tigray in particular. This is followed by a back- ground and causes to the conflict. Thereafter, local, regional and international implications are discussed. The last part dwells on conclusion and recommendations. The next section provides Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55111061 5Reuters. (2020). Ethiopia rejects African mediation, pushes toward rebel-held Tigray capital, Reuters, 21 November 2020. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict-idUSKBN281092. 6BBC News. (2020). Ethiopia's Tigray crisis: PM claims capture of regional capital Mekelle, BBC News, 28 November. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55111061. 2 a brief background particularly on Ethiopia's contemporary history. Ethiopia: A Brief Background Ethiopia is landlocked, bordering Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Sudan, and has been using neighboring Djibouti's main port for the last two decades.7 The country is located in East Africa. With more than 112 million people (2019), Ethiopia is the second most populous nation in Africa after Nigeria, and the fastest growing economy in the region.8 Islam and Christianity are Ethiopia's major religions. Ethiopia's population is highly diverse, containing over 80 different ethnic groups. Most people in Ethiopia speak Afro-Asiatic languages mainly the Cushitic and Semitic branches. The former includes the Oromo and Somali whilst the latter includes the Amhara and Tigrays. Together these four groups make up three-quarters of the population. As shown in Figure 2, Ethiopia is a Federal Democratic Republic composed of 10 National Regional states: namely Tigray, Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Benishangul-Gumuz, Southern Nations Nationalities and People Region (SNNPR), Sidama, Gambella and Harari, and two Administrative states (Addis Ababa City administration and Dire Dawa city council). Notably, Ethiopia's federalism is organized along ethnic lines, hence the term 'ethnic federalism'. The TPLF was the architect of ethnic federalism in Ethiopia. When they came to power in 1991, they organized Ethiopia along ethnolinguistic lines. However, many argues that the ethnic federal structure of Ethiopia did not work as it intended. Since this system brought in the country division rather than diversity, separation rather than cooperation and exclusion rather than unity. The country is led by a Prime Minister who is also the Commander in Chief of the Defence Forces. A president plays an important but largely a ceremonial one. From 1930-1974, Ethiopia was ruled by Emperor Haile Selassie who ruled the country along the lines of a Christian oriented monarch. Haile Selassie was overthrown in a military coup in 1974 by the Derg, a committee of low-ranking soldiers. The Derg regime (1974-1987), which was later led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, was a military dictatorship which followed a unitary Marxist-Leninist (socialism and communism) one party state ideological contour. Mengistu was overthrown and fled to Zim- babwe in 1991. Thereafter, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) took over the reins of power. The EPRDF, was a coalition of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and South- ern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM). The TPLF was a dominant party in the coalition. Its chairperson was the late Meles Zenawi who served as the Ethiopia's President from 1991 to 1995 and later served as the country's Prime Minister until his death in 2012. After his death in 2012, Meles was succeeded by Hailemariam Desalegn who was succeeded by Abiy Ahmed in 2018. 7The World Bank. (2020). The World Bank in Ethiopia. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview 8Ibid. 3 Figure 2: Federal States of Ethiopia Source: Wikipedia. Available at: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/Regions of Ethiopia EN.svg. Some key dates in Ethiopia's history: 9 • 4th century - Christianity becomes the state religion. • 1855-1868 - Reign of Emperor Tewodros II, who lays the foundation for the modern Ethiopian state. • 1896 - Invading Italian forces are defeated by Ethiopians at Adwa. • 1935-1941 - Italy deposes Emperor Haile Selassie and annexes Ethiopia, before being driven out by British, Commonwealth and Ethiopian forces. • 1962 - Haile Selassie annexes Eritrea, which becomes an Ethiopian province. • 1974 - Haile Selassie overthrown in military coup after government fails to deal with famine. • 1977-79 - Thousands are killed in "Red Terror" orchestrated by Marxist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam. • 1984-85 - Another serious famine devastates much of the country. • 1991 - Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front deposes Mengistu. Meles Zenawi establishes stability and achieves considerable economic progress in his 19-year authoritarian rule. 9BBC News. (2020). Ethiopia Country Profile. BBC News, 5 November. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13349398. 4 • 1993 - Eritrea becomes independent. • 1999-2000 - Ethiopian-Eritrean border war. • 2018 - Abiy Ahmed becomes prime minister and launches reform programme at home. Ends state of war with Eritrea. In relation to the conflict zone, Tigray it is located in the North of Ethiopia and shares a border with Eritrea. It is the home to the TPLF party that is at loggerheads with the Abiy adminis- tration. Five things about Tigray:10 1. The Kingdom of Aksum was centred in the region. Described as one of the greatest civilisations of the ancient world, it was once the most powerful state between the Roman and Persian empires. 2. The ruins of the city of Aksum are a UN World Heritage Site. The site, dating from between the 1st and 13th Century AD, features obelisks, castles, royal tombs and a church which is believed by some to house the Ark of the Covenant. 3. Most people in Tigray are Ethiopian Orthodox Christians.