CPIG OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis: Causes, Implications and Way Forward

Abiyot Geneme Gebre∗

Chair of Comparative Politics, University of Kiel Research Group ”The Future of Democracy” CPIG Occasional Paper Series No. 20/12

December 2020

Introduction

While much of the world was preoccupied with the elections in the United States, Ethiopia careened toward civil war.1 Since 4 November 2020, Ethiopia’s federal state has been entangled in a fierce armed conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party of the Tigray region. ’The last red line has been crossed with this morning’s attacks and the federal government is therefore forced into a military confrontation...to save the country and the region from spiraling instability,’ the office of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s office said in a statement on the declaration of war against the TPLF party on 4 November 2020, citing what it called ’months of provocation and incitement.’2 Since then, the conflict in the Tigray region has escalated to alarming levels as shown in Figure 1. As indicated in Figure 1, the ’Sarajevo’ incident that sparked the Ethiopian federal state- TPLF party conflict was the alleged attack by Tigray forces on a military base in the northern command on 4 November 2020.3 Thereafter, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war but camouflaged it as a ’military operation’ against the TPLF. The conflict has since spread to the Amhara region and Eritrea with Sudan receiving thousands of refugees from the Tigray region as indicated on the map. As of 28 November 2020, there were reports of heavy shelling in the center of Tigray’s capital Mekelle as the army stepped up its conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.4 Prime Minister Abiy’s administration has scuttled mediation efforts by the

∗Doctoral Student at Chair of Comparative Politics, CAU Kiel, Email: [email protected] 1Alden Young. (2020). How to think about Ethiopian politics today, Africa is a Country. Available at: https://africasacountry.com/2020/11/how-to-think-about-ethiopian-politics-today 2Ermias Tasfaye Daba and Lesley Wroughton. (2020). The Washington Post. (2020). Ethiopia sends troops into renegade northern province as long-simmering tensions explode, The Washington Post, 4 November 2020. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-military- tplf/2020/11/04/3cd0f4a8-1e90-11eb-ad53-4c1fda49907d-story.html 3The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and Franz Ferdinand’s wife Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, occurred on 28 June 1914 in Sarajevo when they were mortally wounded by Gavrilo Princip. The assassination sparked the First World War. 4BBC News. 2020. Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: Army ’enters regional capital of Mekelle’ BBC News, 28 November.

1 Figure 1: Major Conflict Events in Ethiopia: November 2020

African Union (AU) and also barred the AU mediation team consisting of former presidents Joachim Chisano (Mozambique), Sirleaf Johnson (Liberia) and Kgalema Motlante (South Africa) from traveling to the conflict zone (Tigray region).5 Against the above described background, this paper seeks to illuminate on the current po- litical and security crisis in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Accordingly, the paper mainly casts light on the causes and local, regional and international ramifications of the crisis. Moreover, the paper provides recommendations to the issues at stake in Tigray. However, it should be underlined that the situation in Tigray is fluid and characterized by swift as well as dramatic changes. For instance, in the evening of 28 November 2020, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy ’victoriously’ announced that the federal troops were in ’full control’ of Makelle, the regional capital of Makelle.6 However, the reality is that the conflict seems far from being over as the TPLF/Tigray fighters are likely to retreat and adopt guerrilla warfare characterized by surprise attacks. In terms of its sources, this paper relied mainly on observation, media reports and analysts on Ethiopian politics. The paper is organized this way. The first part gives a brief historical background about Ethiopia in general and Tigray in particular. This is followed by a back- ground and causes to the conflict. Thereafter, local, regional and international implications are discussed. The last part dwells on conclusion and recommendations. The next section provides

Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55111061 5Reuters. (2020). Ethiopia rejects African mediation, pushes toward rebel-held Tigray capital, Reuters, 21 November 2020. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict-idUSKBN281092. 6BBC News. (2020). Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: PM claims capture of regional capital Mekelle, BBC News, 28 November. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55111061.

2 a brief background particularly on Ethiopia’s contemporary history.

Ethiopia: A Brief Background

Ethiopia is landlocked, bordering Eritrea, Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Sudan, and has been using neighboring Djibouti’s main port for the last two decades.7 The country is located in East Africa. With more than 112 million people (2019), Ethiopia is the second most populous nation in Africa after Nigeria, and the fastest growing economy in the region.8 Islam and Christianity are Ethiopia’s major religions. Ethiopia’s population is highly diverse, containing over 80 different ethnic groups. Most people in Ethiopia speak Afro-Asiatic languages mainly the Cushitic and Semitic branches. The former includes the Oromo and Somali whilst the latter includes the Amhara and Tigrays. Together these four groups make up three-quarters of the population. As shown in Figure 2, Ethiopia is a Federal Democratic Republic composed of 10 National Regional states: namely Tigray, Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Benishangul-Gumuz, Southern Nations Nationalities and People Region (SNNPR), Sidama, Gambella and Harari, and two Administrative states (Addis Ababa City administration and Dire Dawa city council). Notably, Ethiopia’s federalism is organized along ethnic lines, hence the term ’ethnic federalism’. The TPLF was the architect of ethnic federalism in Ethiopia. When they came to power in 1991, they organized Ethiopia along ethnolinguistic lines. However, many argues that the ethnic federal structure of Ethiopia did not work as it intended. Since this system brought in the country division rather than diversity, separation rather than cooperation and exclusion rather than unity. The country is led by a Prime Minister who is also the Commander in Chief of the Defence Forces. A president plays an important but largely a ceremonial one. From 1930-1974, Ethiopia was ruled by Emperor Haile Selassie who ruled the country along the lines of a Christian oriented monarch. Haile Selassie was overthrown in a military coup in 1974 by the Derg, a committee of low-ranking soldiers. The Derg regime (1974-1987), which was later led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, was a military dictatorship which followed a unitary Marxist-Leninist (socialism and communism) one party state ideological contour. Mengistu was overthrown and fled to Zim- babwe in 1991. Thereafter, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) took over the reins of power. The EPRDF, was a coalition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and South- ern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). The TPLF was a dominant party in the coalition. Its chairperson was the late Meles Zenawi who served as the Ethiopia’s President from 1991 to 1995 and later served as the country’s Prime Minister until his death in 2012. After his death in 2012, Meles was succeeded by Hailemariam Desalegn who was succeeded by Abiy Ahmed in 2018.

7The World Bank. (2020). The World Bank in Ethiopia. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview 8Ibid.

3 Figure 2: Federal States of Ethiopia

Source: Wikipedia. Available at: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/Regions of Ethiopia EN.svg.

Some key dates in Ethiopia’s history: 9

• 4th century - Christianity becomes the state religion.

• 1855-1868 - Reign of Emperor Tewodros II, who lays the foundation for the modern Ethiopian state.

• 1896 - Invading Italian forces are defeated by Ethiopians at Adwa.

• 1935-1941 - Italy deposes Emperor Haile Selassie and annexes Ethiopia, before being driven out by British, Commonwealth and Ethiopian forces.

• 1962 - Haile Selassie annexes Eritrea, which becomes an Ethiopian province.

• 1974 - Haile Selassie overthrown in military coup after government fails to deal with famine.

• 1977-79 - Thousands are killed in ”Red Terror” orchestrated by Marxist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam.

• 1984-85 - Another serious famine devastates much of the country.

• 1991 - Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front deposes Mengistu. Meles Zenawi establishes stability and achieves considerable economic progress in his 19-year authoritarian rule. 9BBC News. (2020). Ethiopia Country Profile. BBC News, 5 November. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-13349398.

4 • 1993 - Eritrea becomes independent.

• 1999-2000 - Ethiopian-Eritrean border war.

• 2018 - Abiy Ahmed becomes prime minister and launches reform programme at home. Ends state of war with Eritrea.

In relation to the conflict zone, Tigray it is located in the North of Ethiopia and shares a border with Eritrea. It is the home to the TPLF party that is at loggerheads with the Abiy adminis- tration.

Five things about Tigray:10

1. The Kingdom of Aksum was centred in the region. Described as one of the greatest civilisations of the ancient world, it was once the most powerful state between the Roman and Persian empires.

2. The ruins of the city of Aksum are a UN World Heritage Site. The site, dating from between the 1st and 13th Century AD, features obelisks, castles, royal tombs and a church which is believed by some to house the Ark of the Covenant.

3. Most people in Tigray are Ethiopian Orthodox Christians. The region’s Christian roots stretch back 1,600 years.

4. The region’s main language is Tigrinya, a Semitic dialect with at least seven million speakers worldwide.

5. Sesame is a major cash crop, exported to the US, China and other countries.

Background and Context: Causes of the Conflict

The causes of the Abiy administration-TPLF conflict are not only multidimensional but also interrelated. These causes range from the struggle for power and influence, political marginal- ization, ethnic tensions, to ideological differences. These are elaborated below:

Political Marginalization, Struggle for Power, Influence and Supremacy

Since 1991 up to 2018, Ethiopia was ruled by a coalition of political parties called Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP) and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) constituted this coalition. Although the Tigray do not constitute the ethnic majority in Ethiopia, their party- TPLF chaired the ruling EPRDF party and then Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi-a Tigrayan often accused of illiberalism and authoritarianism, doubled as both the EPRDF and TPLF chairperson from 1991 to his death in 2012. During Meles’ era, TPLF members and Tigrayans held key positions in the army, police, intelligence and other strategic state intuitions.11 Indeed, ‘The TPLF has

10BBC News. (2020). Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: Debretsion Gebremichael, the man at the heart of the conflict, BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54972908. 11

5 dominated Ethiopian politics since 1991, when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front drove Mengistu Haile Mariam’s regime from power after a civil war.’12 When Hailemariam resigned in 2018, he was succeeded by Abiy Ahmed who is an Oromo. The Oromos are the majority group in Ethiopia in terms of ethnic composition. When Abiy as- sumed power, he implemented sweeping reforms which included the reformation of the Tigrayan dominated security sector. For instance, Abiy replaced the head of the army and intelligence, both TPLF stalwarts. This marked the weakening of the TPLF according to a university lec- turer in the capital Addis Ababa who declined to be named.13 Abiy’s political reform agenda decimated Tigrayan’s political hegemony and muscle. In the end, the TPLF party, which had contested against Abiy for the Prime Ministerial position in 2018, started accusing Abiy of po- litical marginalization and exclusion in public affairs. Furthermore, separatist sentiments in the Tigray region became dominant. In the period leading to the physical conflict, TPLF had totally cut ties with the federal government and declared autonomy leading to increased tensions. In a vicious cycle of counter-accusations, the Abiy administration accused TPLF of insubordination and revolt whilst the TPLF complained of exclusion and political marginalization. This toxic relationship deteriorated to an armed conflict on 4 November 2020.

Ethnic Disharmony

Ethnic tensions in Ethiopia are pervasive. Ethno-nationalistic sentiments and ethnic violence between and among Ethiopia’s ethnic groups leaving scores dead and hundreds displaced is a popular feature of Ethiopia’s society.14 It is therefore not surprising that when Prime Minister Abiy declared war against the TPLF on November 2020, his actions were regarded as a war against the Tigrayan ethnic group. In turn, Tigray fighters have attacked the Amhara region during the conflict. Thus, the current conflict in Tigray is laced with ethnic undertones and dynamics.

Ideological Contradictions

The conflict in Tigray is also rooted in contradictions in ideology between the TPLF on one hand and the Abiy’s ruling party, the Prosperity Party (PP) on the other. In November 2019, Abiy changed the name of his ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party to Prosperity Party (PP). Consequently, the ideological outlook of the newly established party changed. ‘The EPRDF’s successor- the Prosperity Party- is a radical departure from the past in terms of ideology and membership base.’15 As it was also noted during that time, ‘the PP is moving away from its predecessor’s developmental state model to neoliberalism. In a sharp departure from the state-led developmental strategy of the past three decades, the Prosperity

12Reuters. (2018). Ethiopia’s prime minister replaces security chiefs as part of reforms, Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-military-idUSKCN1J40PU. 13Ibid. 14Yohannes Gedamu. (2020). Violence in Ethiopia underscores unresolved ethnic tensions, The Conversation, 14 July 2020. Available at: https://theconversation.com/violence-in-ethiopia-underscores-unresolved-ethnic- tensions-142393. 15Gebreluel, G. (2019). “Ethiopia’s Prime Minister wants to change the ruling coalition. Who is getting left out?” The Washington Post, 23 December.

6 Party is espousing a liberal economic doctrine that will provide a greater role for the private sector in the economy.’16 In fact, Abiy explicitly mentioned that the guiding ideology of the PP party was ‘capital- ism.’17 Ethiopia’s scheduled hosting of the 2020 World Economic Forum, hosting of billionaire Jack Ma in 2019 and privatization of state-owned companies fits neatly into the capitalism and neoliberal template. Such a shift in ideology was unacceptable to the TPLF party whose mem- bers largely identified as dogged leftists and ardent disciples of Meles Zenawi who advocated the developmental state political philosophy. Another challenge was that Abiy’s Pan-Ethiopian PP party was viewed as an attempt to dismantle Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism system- a system which the TPLF regarded as the cor- nerstone of Ethiopia unity in diversity. Therefore, ‘as fighting rages across Tigray, Abiy Ahmed has brought to the fore the central questions of Ethiopian political theory: should the Ethiopian state be a federalist state or a unitary state?’18 Abiy seem to be gravitating towards a uni- tary architecture, yet the TPLF favours a federalist version. Thus, ideological differences and competing visions for the future identity of the Ethiopian states are largely contributed to the current conflict between the TPLF/Tigray fighters and the ruling PP party.

Implications of the Conflict

The Ethiopia’s central government and the regional government of Tigray conflict is a human- itarian catastrophe with far reaching personal, local, regional and international ramifications. This section seeks to highlight such implications.

Personal Implications- Question of Abiy’s Reputation

When the Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed came into power in 2018, he managed to negotiate a settlement that ended the Ethiopia-Eritrea war which broke out in 1998 and ended in 2000. Since, 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea have been in a state of conflict albeit not full-scale conflict. When Abiy ended the conflict in 2018, he was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize in October 2019.19 Yet, Abiy, a man of peace, has plunged Ethiopia into the abyss of violence by declaring war on the Tigray region. As shown in the map in the introduction of this paper, more than 41 000 refugees from Tigray have sought fled into neighbouring Sudan, infrastructure have been destroyed and innocent civilians killed. This has undoubtedly tainted Abiy’s reputation as a Nobel laureate. The fact that he has shut the door to African Union (AU) mediation has further clouded his political will and integrity. The question which begs for an answer is: Is Abiy still a credible Nobel laureate or not?

16Lashitew. A. (2019). Ethiopia’s newly unified ruling party pivots to a liberal political economy. Brookings Institute. 17Gebreluel, G. (2019). “Ethiopia’s Prime Minister wants to change the ruling coalition. Who is getting left out?” The Washington Post, 23 December. 18Alden Young. (2020). How to think about Ethiopian politics today, Africa is a Country. Available at: https://africasacountry.com/2020/11/how-to-think-about-ethiopian-politics-today. 19Ibid.

7 Domestic Implications

Locally, the conflict in Tigray has a potential to spread to other regions as exemplified by TPLF’s attack on the Amhara region. In Oromia, separatist and violent ethno-nationalistic sentiments are already on the rise. In Tigray, infrastructure has been destroyed, more than 41 000 displaced, human lives lost and economic resources lost- since war is always a costly exercise. Undoubtedly, the Tigray conflict is likely to further heighten ethnic tensions in Ethiopia.

Regional Implications

The Tigray conflict is likely to spread across the region and the entire Horn of Africa- a region that is already volatile. ‘Fighting in the continent’s second-most-populous country could desta- bilize the entire sensitive Horn of Africa region.’20 As shown, in the map in the introduction of this paper, Tigray fighters attacked Eritrea which rekindled fears of the Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict which was ended two years back by Abiy. More than 41 000 citizens have sought refuge in Sudan yet relations between Ethiopia and Sudan are shaky due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project- a project vehemently opposed by Egypt and Sudan yet Ethiopia is de- termined to see its completion. There is a likelihood of the conflict spreading across the region if not contained.

International Implications

Abiy’s reaction to the Tigray crisis is likely to set him on a collision course especially with Western countries. Already, the UN has condemned the attacks especially on civilians by federal troops. In addition, the crisis in Tigray is likely to affect Ethiopia’s image in a big way. There could be no tourists or investors will travel to Tigray until normalcy prevails. Therefore, the Tigray crisis is an anathema to foreign direct investment, tourism and regional and international trade.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict is a humanitarian catastrophe that has claimed many lives, strained the economy, triggered displacements, destroyed infrastructure, accentuated already existing ethnic differences and dented Prime Minister’s Abiy Ahmed international reputation. Also, the Tigray crisis is far from over. The problems could not only be end with a military victory. The conflict, which is deeply rooted in ideological differences, struggles for power, political marginalization and ethnic contradictions, ought to be stopped sooner rather than later. The African Union and the international community should take strict measures to end the crisis in the Tigray region. The table (dialogue) should take precedence over the sword (war) lest the Hobbesian state of nature where life becomes short, brutish and nasty prevails.21

20Ermias Tasfaye Daba and Lesley Wroughton. (2020). The Washington Post. (2020). Ethiopia sends troops into renegade northern province as long-simmering tensions explode, The Washington Post, 4 November 2020. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-military- tplf/2020/11/04/3cd0f4a8-1e90-11eb-ad53-4c1fda49907d story.html. 21Andr´eMunro. (2020). State of Nature. Britannica. Available at: https://www.britannica.com/topic/state-of- nature-political-theory.

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