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Rethinking Global Economic Governance in Light of the Crisis Rethinking global economic governance in light of the crisis: Rethinking Global Economic Governance in Light of the Crisis: New Perspectives on Economic Policy Foundations on Economic Policy New Perspectives Rethinking Global Economic Governance in Light of the Crisis: New perspectives on economic policy foundations Rethinking Global Economic Governance in Light of the Crisis Global governance was, to put it charitably, one of the ‘steadier’ areas New Perspectives on Economic of economic research. Then the storm hit — the global crisis capsized existing concepts — pushing economists and political economists into Policy Foundations uncharted waters. For scholars, these horrible events were both daunting and exciting. Cherished assumptions had to be binned, but global governance became a top-line issue for heads of state. Economic and political analysis of global governance really mattered. This Report collects a dozen essays by world-class scholars on the full range of global governance issues including macroeconomics, fi nance, trade, and migration. These refl ect the research of nine research teams working in an EU-funded project known as PEGGED (Politics, Economics and Global Governance: the European Dimensions). Edited by Richard Baldwin and David Vines Rethinking Global Economic Governance in Light of the Crisis New Perspectives on Economic Policy Foundations Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Centre for Economic Policy Research 3rd Floor 77 Bastwick Street London, EC1V 3PZ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Fax: +4 (0)20 7183 8820 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cepr.org © Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2012 ISBN (print edition): 978-1-907142-52-9 Rethinking Global Economic Governance in Light of the Crisis New Perspectives on Economic Policy Foundations Edited by Richard Baldwin and David Vines This book is produced as part of the project ‘Politics, Economics and Global Governance: The European Dimensions’ (PEGGED) funded by the Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities theme of the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme for Research. Grant Agreement no. 217559. Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research is a network of over 700 Research Fellows and Affiliates, based primarily in European Universities. The Centre coordinates the re- search activities of its Fellows and Affiliates and communicates the results to the public and private sectors. CEPR is an entrepreneur, developing research initiatives with the producers, consumers and sponsors of research. Established in 1983, CEPR is a Euro- pean economics research organization with uniquely wide-ranging scope and activities. The Centre is pluralist and non-partisan, bringing economic research to bear on the analysis of medium- and long-run policy questions. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Executive Committee of the Centre does not give prior review to its publications, and the Centre takes no institutional policy positions. The opinions ex- pressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. CEPR is a registered charity (No. 287287) and a company limited by guarantee and registered in England (No. 1727026). Chair of the Board Guillermo de la Dehesa President Richard Portes Chief Executive Officer Stephen Yeo Research Director Lucrezia Reichlin Policy Director Richard Baldwin Contents Foreword vii Introduction 1 Richard Baldwin and David Vines The governance of international macroeconomic relations The G20MAP, global rebalancing, and sustaining global economic growth 17 David Vines Fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stabilisation 27 Giancarlo Corsetti The Eurozone Crisis – April 2012 35 Richard Portes The Triffin Dilemma and a multipolar international reserve system 47 Richard Portes Globalisation, financial stability, and global financial regulation Financial stability: Where it went and from whence it might return 57 Geoffrey Underhill The crisis and the future of the banking industry 67 Xavier Freixas How to prevent and better handle the failures of global systemically important financial institutions 75 Stijn Claessens Cross-border banking in Europe: policy challenges in turbulent times 85 Thorsten Beck Credit default swaps in Europe 95 Richard Portes Global banks, fiscal policy and international business cycles 107 Robert Kollmann The global trade regime The Doha Round impasse 111 Simon J Evenett The Future of the WTO 121 Richard Baldwin Open to goods, closed to people? 135 Paola Conconi, Giovanni Facchini, Max F Steinhardt, and Maurizio Zanardi International migration and the mobility of labour The Recession and International Migration 143 Timothy J Hatton A dangerous campaign: Why we shouldn’t risk the Schengen-Agreement 157 Tito Boeri and Herbert Brücker Foreword This report grows out of research carried out under the auspices of the project Politics, Economics and Global Governance: The European Dimensions (PEGGED) funded by the European Union’s Framework Programme. The project, as initially conceived, involved four workstreams: the governance of international macroeconomic relations; globalization, financial stability and global financial regulation; the global trade regime; and international migration and the mobility of labour. This research agenda was conceived in the spring of 2007. Less than five years have passed since then, but the economic and political landscape has shifted enormously, and the early years of the millennium now seem rather distant and remote. Celebrations of the Great Moderation, arguments for the desirability of independent central banks and the virtues of markets and the discipline now seem not so much incorrect as somewhat beside the point. Faced with this seismic shift, PEGGED responded in a sensible and pragmatic way, adapting its research agenda to the needs of policymakers as they grappled first with the turmoil in US subprime markets, then the growing disruption in global financial markets, and then the collapse of institutions at the heart of the financial system, such as AIG and Lehman. The output was disseminated through PEGGED working papers for the most part, but the urgency of the crisis and the need to deliver relevant research immediately to policymakers meant that new tools were needed. Fortunately, Richard Baldwin and CEPR had created just the right tool in the summer of 2007 – VoxEU. VoxEU columns and eBooks proved to be the right way to deliver key research results in real time. Although VoxEU is a separate venture, independent of PEGGED, VoxEU has been supported by DG Education and Culture, a happy synergy between EU funding programmes. vii Rethinking Global Economic Governance in Light of the Crisis Richard Baldwin and David Vines have performed an important service by bringing together in this volume key results from each of the project’s four workstreams. Vines, a CEPR Research Fellow, has acted as Scientific Coordinator of the PEGGED project since its inception and has contributed in particular to the project’s work on international macroeconomic relations. Baldwin, CEPR’s Policy Director, has played an important role in PEGGED, leading its work on the global trade regime. Bringing together the results of an ambitious and wide ranging research project such as PEGGED is no easy task, and we are grateful to David and Richard for doing so. Thanks are also due to Samantha Reid, who brought this volume to a publishable state with her customary speed and efficiency. Sam will be leaving CEPR at the end of this month. We will not be able to take advantage of her skills in future, but this volume is testimony to her skill and professionalism. Stephen Yeo CEO, Centre for Economic Policy Research 13 April 2012 viii Introduction Richard Baldwin and David Vines Graduate Institute, Geneva and CEPR; Balliol College, Oxford, Australian National University, CEPR, and PEGGED A group of scholars banded together in 2007 to propose a four-year research on global governance – the Politics, Economics and Global Governance: the European Dimensions (PEGGED for short). While all the research was to be innovative and world-class, the project was most definitely sailing in familiar seas. Then the storm hit – the global crisis blew us off-course and into uncharted waters. Born as the ‘subprime crisis’ in autumn 2007, the crisis metastasized in September 2008 via the financial system. Credit markets froze; equity prices plunged. Emergency measures by governments and central banks – loosely coordinated by the newly established G20 Leaders’ Summit – stabilised financial systems. A second Great Depression was avoided, but sharp credit contractions teamed up with precipitous declines in business and consumer confidence; the industrialised world was hurled into recession at an unexpected velocity. The shock transmitted to developing nations via trade and expectation channels again at an unparalleled pace. This was the Great Recession and the initial shock continues to reverberate – the Eurozone crisis is the latest ricochet. With its lethal combination of over-indebted governments, weak banking system, and a lack of consumer and investor confidence, the Eurozone crisis continues to threaten European and global economy with another massive shock. The global crisis is most definitely not over. For a team of scholars, these horrible events were both daunting and exciting. Many of our initial assumptions had to be binned, but it made our work radically more relevant and pressing. For the first time in decades, global governance
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