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The EURO at TEN – LESSONS and CHALLENGES FRAN B ED FRANK G 13-14 Nov13-14 Conf C ECB Fifth ARTO ILL ITOR ES CESC E E SZ S R Ntral Bankin Ntral S NO E M Nce MA O E B E

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The EURO at TEN – LESSONS and CHALLENGES FRAN B ED FRANK G 13-14 Nov13-14 Conf C ECB Fifth ARTO ILL ITOR ES CESC E E SZ S R Ntral Bankin Ntral S NO E M Nce MA O E B E GES THE EURO AT TEN – N E LESSONS AND CHALLENGES HALL D C AN S ON ESS L – N E T AT URO E E TH FIFTH ECB CENTRAL BANKING CONFERENCE 13-14 NOVEMBER 2008 EDITORS NTRAL BANK E BARTOSZ MAĆKOWIAK AN C FRANCESCO PAOLO MONGELLI E GILLES NOBLET EUROP FRANK SMETS THE EURO AT TEN – LESSONS AND CHALLENGES FIFTH ECB CENTRAL BANKING CONFERENCE 13-14 NOVEMBER 2008 EDITORS BARTOSZ MAĆKOWIAK FRANCESCO PAOLO MONGELLI GILLES NOBLET FRANK SMETS © European Central Bank, 2009 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily ref lect those of the European Central Bank, the Eurosystem or any of the other institutions with which the authors are affiliated. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. ISBN 978-92-899-0375-2 (print) ISBN 978-92-899-0376-9 (online) CONTENTS INTRODUCTION by Bartosz Maćkowiak, Francesco Paolo Mongelli, Gilles Noblet and Frank Smets .................................................................... 6 OPENING ADDRESS by Lucas Papademos ................................................................................... 16 SESSION 1 EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION (EMU) AFTER TEN YEARS – WHAT HAS EMU BROUGHT TO CONSUMERS AND THE CORPORATE SECTOR? PRICES AND QUANTITIES The euro at ten – unfulfilled threats and unexpected challenges by Francesco Paolo Mongelli and Charles Wyplosz ................................... 24 Comments Francesco Caselli ......................................................................................... 58 Vítor Constâncio .......................................................................................... 66 General Discussion ...................................................................................... 78 SESSION 2 EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION (EMU) AFTER TEN YEARS – WHAT HAS EMU BROUGHT TO CONSUMERS AND THE CORPORATE SECTOR? THE EVOLUTION AND THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL MARKETS EMU and financial integration by Philip R. Lane ......................................................................................... 82 Financial integration, macroeconomic volatility and risk sharing – the role of the monetary union by Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Simone Manganelli, Elias Papaioannou and José Luis Peydró .................................................................................... 116 Comments Marco Pagano ............................................................................................... 156 Axel A. Weber ............................................................................................. 159 General Discussion ...................................................................................... 165 KEYNOTE ADDRESS by Jean-Claude Trichet ................................................................................ 168 3 SESSION 3 CHALLENGES FOR MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY FROM GLOBALISATION The global roots of the current financial crisis and its implications for regulation by Anil Kashyap, Raghuram Rajan and Jeremy Stein ................................ 180 Comments Stephen G. Cecchetti .................................................................................... 210 Seppo Honkapohja ........................................................................................ 217 General Discussion ....................................................................................... 222 SESSION 4 PANEL THE EURO AND THE ENLARGEMENT – CHALLENGES AHEAD INTRODUCTION by Francesco Giavazzi .................................................................................. 226 PANEL STATEMENTS Vítor Gaspar .................................................................................................. 228 Athanasios Orphanides ................................................................................. 233 András Simor ................................................................................................ 237 General Discussion ....................................................................................... 241 SESSION 5 PANEL OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREAS – ACADEMIC VIEWS INTRODUCTION by Wolfgang Schill ....................................................................................... 244 PANEL STATEMENTS Martin Feldstein ............................................................................................ 246 Andrew K. Rose ............................................................................................ 251 André Sapir ................................................................................................... 263 Jaume Ventura .............................................................................................. 268 General Discussion ....................................................................................... 274 4 SESSION 6 PANEL INTERNATIONAL INTERDEPENDENCIES AND MONETARY POLICY – POLICY MAKER’S VIEWS INTRODUCTION by Lucrezia Reichlin ..................................................................................... 278 PANEL STATEMENTS Ben S. Bernanke .......................................................................................... 279 Stanley Fischer ............................................................................................. 283 Su Ning ......................................................................................................... 288 Guillermo Ortiz Martínez ............................................................................. 291 Jean-Claude Trichet ...................................................................................... 300 General Discussion ....................................................................................... 303 CLOSING ADDRESS by Jürgen Stark ............................................................................................. 306 PROGRAMME .......................................................................... 312 5 INTRODUCTION1 BY BARTOSZ MAĆKOWIAK, ECB FRANCESCO PAOLO MONGELLI, ECB GILLES NOBLET, ECB FRANK SMETS, ECB The European Central Bank was established on 1 June 1998. It began operating the single monetary policy the day on which the euro came into existence, 1 January 1999. The Fifth ECB Central Banking Conference took place in November 2008, a few months after the tenth anniversary of the establishment of the ECB, and a few weeks before the tenth anniversary of the launch of the euro. Not surprisingly, four out of six sessions of the conference focused on the challenges of and the lessons from the first decade of EMU. Charles Wyplosz (Graduate Institute of International Studies) presented a paper, written jointly with Francesco Paolo Mongelli (ECB), assessing the evolution of main macroeconomic variables in the first decade of EMU. Philip Lane (Trinity College Dublin) and José Luis Peydrό Alcalde (ECB) presented papers evaluating the evolution of financial markets in the first decade of EMU. Peydrό’s presentation was based on the joint paper with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Houston), Simone Manganelli (ECB), and Elias Papaioannou (Dartmouth College). Two panels focused on the tenth anniversary of the euro. The panel chaired by Francesco Giavazzi (Università Bocconi) and comprising Erik Berglöf (EBRD), Vítor Gaspar (European Commission), Athanasios Orphanides (Central Bank of Cyprus), and András Simor (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) discussed enlargement of the euro area, in the past and in the future. The theory of optimal currency areas was the topic of the panel chaired by Wolfgang Schill (ECB) and comprising Martin Feldstein (Harvard University), Andrew Rose (University of California at Berkeley), André Sapir (Université Libre de Bruxelles), and Jaume Ventura (CREI). 2008 turned out to be not only the year of the tenth anniversary of the ECB, but also the year in which a global financial crisis unfolded. Therefore, the other two sessions of the conference focused on the global financial crisis. Raghuram Rajan (University of Chicago) presented a paper, written together with Anil Kashyap (University of Chicago) and Jeremy Stein (Harvard University), in which the authors discuss the roots of the global financial crisis and put forth a proposal for regulatory reform meant to prevent a future financial crisis from escalating. A stimulating exchange of views led by the paper’s discussants followed Rajan’s presentation. At the end of the conference the panel chaired by Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School) and comprising several central bankers (Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve; Stanley Fischer, Bank of Israel; Su Ning, People’s Bank of China; Guillermo Ortiz, Banco de México; and Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB) discussed international interdependency in the 1 We would like to thank all participants in the 5th ECB Central Banking Conference, and all those who helped organise this conference. Furthermore, we wish to thank Werner Breun, Susanne Buchinger, Patricia Kearns-Endres and Maria Mileva for their help in editing this volume. 6 MAĆKOWIAK, MONGELLI, NOBLET, SMETS conduct of monetary policy, especially during the current crisis. The tenth anniversary of the euro and the global financial crisis intertwined in the speeches delivered at the conference by the ECB Board members: in the opening address by Lucas Papademos, in the keynote speech by Jean-Claude Trichet, and in the closing address
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