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The Ecb and Its Watchers Xvi Frankfurt am Main March 11, 2015 1999since THE ECB AND ITS WATCHERS XVI The Conference: The ECB and Its The ECB and Its Four Questions, Selected Topics About the Past, Presence, Watchers XVI: Watchers XVI: Four Economic and Speakers: Organizing and Future The Program The Speakers Answers Indicators 1999 – 2014 Institutions 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 Editorial This year’s “The ECB and Its Watchers” conference takes place against the background of an economic situation in the euro area that has unfortunately not significantly improved compared to the previous year. As the economic indicators presented on pages 6-7 show, the unemployment rate has only slightly decreased and still exhibits a level well above that of other major advanced economies. GDP growth has not picked up and inflation has further declined and has even fallen below zero in December 2014. In light of these disconcerting economic developments, the Governing Council decided in its January meeting to launch an “extended asset purchase programme” involving monthly purchases of public and private sector securities totaling €60 billion until September 2016 or, alternatively, until a “sustained adjustment in the path of inflation” consistent with the ECB’s inflation aim is achieved. While large-scale asset- purchase programs have been undertaken by other major central banks in recent years (see Figure 2) and The ECB and Its Watchers Conference – the economies of these countries have been successful in substantially reducing their unemployment rates, Past, Presence, and Future there is considerable disagreement regarding the benefit-risk analysis of the ECB’s planned measures Otmar Issing (continue on page 4 to read the comments of ECB Watchers we asked about this topic). In its second session, “The ECB and Its Watchers” When the CFS invited to the first ECB Watchers places across Europe) nor discriminate between The global financial crisis, the enlargement of conference will focus on potential monetary policy Conference in 1999 who would have expected different groups. On the other hand I did not the European Monetary Union and new tasks implications induced by the significant changes in the that 16 years later this conference not only wish to give the impression that we would shy for the ECB have extended the spectrum of the European financial architecture in recent years. One continues to take place but is well established away from engaging in serious discussions with conference. major issue which has been discussed in this context, as a landmark in the field of monetary policy, our critics. On top of that we urgently needed and which will probably also be hotly debated during central banking, and related topics. a forum to explain our strategy and policy Considering just the discussion on the monetary the conference, concerns the new dual role of the ECB making to the public. The press conference of policy of the ECB – from the start the strategy, as financial supervisor and monetary policymaker. the President and the Monthly Bulletin were then the implementation, the changes in the important communication tools. Yet, this operational framework, new measures such as The third panel of the conference will take an was no substitute for an open discussion with LTRO, OMT, TLTRO, and now quantitative explicitly global perspective and will scrutinize academics, bank economists and the media. easing demonstrate how the policy has evolved the international dimension of current and future So, the idea of a conference inviting leading bringing new topics to the agenda of the mone-tary policy in the euro area. The recent representatives from these audiences was born, Watchers Conference. The same is true for all turbulences in the Swiss franc-euro exchange-rate and the CFS provided the adequate platform for the other fields. market (see Figure 4) are just one example that such an idea. illustrates the timeliness of this topic. An important The conference has been a source of open, and open question likely to be discussed in this The first meeting received great attention. The excellent discussion. For the ECB the context concerns the potential effects of the recently success was overwhelming and the request for conference has presented a unique opportunity launched extended asset-purchase program on the As the member of the Executive Board of the a conference in the following year was a logical for explaining its policy to an audience which is foreign-exchange markets, and their implications. ECB responsible for the Directorates General consequence. This has not changed over the an important “multiplier” to a broader public. As the comments on page 4 show, our ECB Watchers for Economics and Research I was personally years. Attendance and attention have anything At the same time the central bank has always have fairly different opinions on this issue. confronted with the critique by several but declined. received critical feedback which is worthwhile watchers on the monetary policy strategy of to consider. And all watchers will hardly find All in all, one can see that there are plenty of unre- the ECB, even before the start of the Euro in Looking back, there is a long list of outstanding another occasion at which information in such a solved and important issues to be discussed at this 1999. It was especially the two pillar approach speakers – from the President of the ECB and condensed form comes from first hand. year’s conference. and its focus on money and credit which was Members of the Executive Board to leading criticized by different groups of academics. academics, bank economists and journalists. The There is no reason to assume that this mutual We are very much looking forward to the event and Two of these groups – separately – invited monetary policy of the ECB has remained the interest in the conference will decline or even its open and potentially controversial debates. me for a discussion of their critical position. major topic. But, many other aspects entered disappear. It was obvious that I could not respond to all the agenda and there is probably no field of Günter Beck (On behalf of the CFS and IMFS) present and potential requests (at different financial markets which has not been discussed. 1 Program 2009. He was previously an Honorary Trustee of The ECB and Its Watchers XVI the Brookings Institution and an IOP Fellow at the Program John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. M. Draghi has written and edited a number of publications on macroeconomic and financial issues. Goethe University Frankfurt since Festsaal Casino, Cas 823 Günter W. Beck Otmar Issing 1999 Campus Westend (CFS and IMFS) (Center for Financial Studies) Frankfurt am Main Günter W. Beck is Professor Otmar Issing has been President for European Macroeconomics of the Center for Financial Stud- at the University of Siegen and ies since 2006. From 1998 to Research Fellow at the Center 2006, he was a member of the 8:30 – 8.55 Registration and Coffee for Financial Studies and the Executive Board of the European Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability. Before Central Bank, responsible for the Directorates Gen- 8:55 – 9:00 Welcome his appointment in Siegen, Günter W. Beck was eral Economics and Research. Until 1998 he was a Günter W. Beck (CFS and IMFS) Interim Professor at the University of Mainz and Member of the Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank coordinator of the program “Central Banking and with a seat in the Central Bank Council. Prior to that 9:00 – 9:30 President’s Address Monetary Economics’’ of the Center for Financial he held Chairs of Economics at the Universities of Mario Draghi (President of the European Central Bank) Studies in Frankfurt. After gaining a Ph.D. from Würzburg and Erlangen-Nürnberg. From 1988 to Goethe University Frankfurt in 2004, he worked as 1990, he was a member of the German Council of 9:30 – 10:45 Debate: Low-interest-rate Policy and Non-standard Monetary an Assistant Professor in Frankfurt. Economic Experts. Policy Measures: Effectiveness and Challenges. a) Will the non-standard monetary policy measures adopted be effective His research interests include the study of national Otmar Issing has been the recipient of numerous and contribute to a recovery of the real economy? and international price-setting employing micro economic awards and prizes and received honorary b) How do the potential costs of these measures (such as moral hazard (scanner) data and the analysis of monetary-policy professorships from Goethe University Frankfurt problems for governments or increased risk-taking) compare to their implications resulting from the obtained findings, in 2007 and the University of Würzburg in 1991 (desired) benefits? causes and consequences of heterogeneities in mon- and honorary doctorates from the Universities of c) What will be potential downsides of the (inevitable) exit from the etary unions and the role of banks and other financial Bayreuth, Frankfurt and Konstanz. unconventional policy measures? How can it be managed to minimize the intermediaries („shadow banks“) in the monetary foreseeable negative effects? transmission mechanism and for the real economy. Otmar Issing headed the Advisory Council on a New d) Doesn’t the situation of a (possibly) “secular stagnation” in the euro He has published in leading academic journals Financial Order appointed by German Chancellor area call for alternative/additional, non-monetary-policy measures? If so: including the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Angela Merkel from 2008 to 2012. He also was a Which
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    1 EUROZONE-2015/01/16 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION THE EUROZONE: NOW WHAT? A CONVERSATION WITH LUCREZIA REICHLIN Washington, D.C. Friday, January 16, 2015 PARTICIPANTS: Welcome and Moderator: DAVID WESSEL Director, The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and Senior Fellow, Economic Studies The Brookings Institution Featured Speaker: LUCREZIA REICHLIN Professor of Economics, London Business School Research Director, Centre for Economic Policy Research * * * * * ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 2 EUROZONE-2015/01/16 P R O C E E D I N G S MR. WESSEL: I am David Wessel from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy here at Brookings and is an example of just how perfect our timing is. I can't think of a better moment to have someone who actually knows something about the European Central Bank and the European economy, especially someone who has such great foresight that her last day as a Research Director at the ECB was the day that Lehman Brothers failed. Lucrezia Reichlin really is a wonderful example of globalization. She was born in Italy, educated at NYU, has worked in Frankfurt for the ECB, taught in Brussels, and she's now Professor of Economics at the London Business School, a columnist for Italy's Il Corriere della Serra, a Director of Unicredit and at AGEAS Insurance Group, and she's involved in pretty much every European think tank I ever heard of. And on the side she has started a company called Now-Casting, a firm that specializes in real time economic data and near-term forecasting.
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