CSHPS Abstracts 2013 A Fault in Our Star: Science, Sunspots, and the Economics of W. S. Jevons Calum Agnew University of King's College
[email protected] British economist and philosopher of science William Stanley Jevons published a series of papers in the 19th century alleging a connection between sunspots and commercial crises in England. Jevons' work on sunspots has often been criticized by his contemporaries working in statistics and economic--and even historians of economics--for being wrong, silly, or ridiculous; a peculiar blemish on an otherwise exceptional career. In the words of Ekelund and Hébert, his sunspot theory was "the most fanciful and, ultimately, ridiculed idea of his life." Jevons, a trained chemist and the foremost economist and logician in Britain, appears to have made the most basic of statistical errors: confusing correlation and causation--an error that he would never recant. However, an examination of the literature published on the causes of sunspots, and their effects on the weather in the 19th century makes it clear that Jevons's theory was not unprecedented, and had strong theoretical justification. Jevons's work on sunspots was a work of synthesis--an attempt to both make economics scientific, and unite scientific knowledge with economic theory. The Varieties of Scientific Expertise Ben Almassi Department of Philosophy, College of Lake County
[email protected] What does it take to achieve scientific expertise? Is it an entirely epistemic achievement turning on one's ratio of true and/or justified