“Remember that there is nothing stable in human affairs; therefore avoid undue elation in prosperity or undue depression in adversity.” —Socrates, 399 B.C. “In the economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause— it is seen. The others unfold in succession— they are not seen: it is well for us if they are foreseen.” —Frederic Bastiat, That Which Is Seen, That Which Is Unseen , 1850 “Res nolunt diu male administrari . Things refuse to be mismanaged long. Though no checks to a new evil appear, the checks exist, and will appear.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1844 “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”—Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds , 1912 2014 ANNUAL REPORT _______________________________________________________ For further information, contact Chris Ridenour at (574) 293-2077 or via email at
[email protected] 1 Why We Worry Top-Down and Invest Bottom-Up “A rising tide lifts all ships” is bandied about in our profession like a shuttlecock at a garden party badminton game. It seems that whenever an analogy is that simple and quaint, there must be a catch. And there is: the waves. In their endless repetition they mask the invisible but prodigious ebb and flood tides. The daily headlines are almost always about the waves, particularly, even if unnoticed, when the tide is rising.