DOCSLIB.ORG

Geostatistical Space-Time Interpolation Used to Homogenise Hydrological Monitoring Data

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Geostatistical Space-Time Interpolation Used to Homogenise Hydrological Monitoring Data Geostatistical space-time interpolation used to homogenise hydrological monitoring data Robert MARSCHALLINGER The GI_Forum Program Committee accepted this paper as reviewed full paper. Summary Geostatistics has been used to interpolate, in X,Y,time dimensions, groundwater level data collected in the course of a more than 10-years lasting monitoring campaign which has been accompanying a major Austrian railway upgrade project. Georeferenced time series data have been interpolated by 3D Kriging, yielding a space-time voxel array of groundwa- ter level estimates. From this spatiotemporally homogenized data set, time slices are ex- tracted to feed a cartographic animation which communicates, in an intuitive manner, the hydrological situation in the project area. 1 Introduction Part of the Berlin – Palermo Trans-European Transport Networks axis, the Brenner Base Tunnel (“BBT”) holds a key position for future north – south traffic (Fig. 1). On Austrian territory, access to the BBT is provided via the Lower Inn Valley railway, a classical two- track line which has been operative since 1895. With 300 trains per day, the Lower Inn Valley railway is now at the capacity limit. Accordingly, it has been identified as a bottle- neck of future international north-south rail traffic, necessitating a large-scale upgrade pro- gramme. The Brenner Eisenbahn GmbH (“BEG”) has been founded in 1996 to implement all railway upgrade projects for the Brenner axis in Austria (for more details, see www.beg.co.at). Following a step by step approach in the Lower Inn Valley railway up- grade, the BEG has granted highest priority to the section Kundl-Radfeld-Baumkirchen. The length of this technically sophisticated section is approx. 40 km, it comprises two tun- nel chains, subsurface tracks, an acceleration track and links to the existing railway line. Upon completion in 2012, this section will enable trains to run at speeds of up to 250km/h. After environmental impact assessments and the official project approval, the planning for the Lower Inn Valley railway started with drilling campaigns, driving of investigation gal- leries and exhaustive programmes for the preservation of environmental evidence. 2 R. Marschallinger Fig. 1: TEN connectivity outline in Central Europe. Dark lines: operative sections of the TEN axis Berlin-Palermo. Arrows indicate areas of Lower Inn Valley railway up- grade in the Kundl-Radfeld-Baumkirchen area and Brenner Base Tunnel (modified from BEG website, www.beg.co.at ). Geostatistical space-time interpolation 3 2 Hydrogeological overview As outlined above, the Lower Inn Valley railway upgrade project involves large subsurface sections. These are expected to impact the groundwater resources by partially blocking the natural ground water flux, either by temporary building measures or by permanent subsur- face constructions. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the hydrogeological situation is a prerequisite for modelling the impact of the railway update. As usual in alpine valleys, in the Inn valley the hydrogeological situation is quite complex due to the interfacing of basement rocks and the glacial and postglacial sediments. In the lower Inn valley, three hydrogeological units are discriminated (Wanker et al, 2007): 1) Joint acquifers in the hard rock units of the Northern Calcareous Alps. Here, an intercala- tion of highly permeable, karstified limestones and water retaining clay slates prevails. This unit is subject to supraregional drinking water use. 2) Quarternary, low mountain terraces in the Inn valley. Situated at the forefront of the Northern Calcareous Alps, they comprise sequences of slates, sands and gravels. 3) Youngest sedimentary filling of the Inn valley with permeable gravels and intercalated, less permeable delta fan sands. Summing up, the hydrogeological situation in the project area necessitates a dedicated project concept for the planned railway upgrade. To handle the conflicting interests of the railway upgrade project, the local water resources management and individual interests, a large ground water monitoring campaign has been started in 1996, covering the Kundl- Radfeld-Baumkirchen section. Currently, this monitoring programme involves some 420 sources, 200 standpipes, 830 ground water monitoring wells and 100 measurement points in the Inn and its feeder rivers. Most ground water level data have been monitored twice a month, data being stored in a customised database system. 3 Groundwater table XYt modelling & associated process pipeline A subarea of the Kundl-Radfeld-Baumkirchen railway upgrade project has been chosen as testbed for new approaches to communicate the vast amount of available groundwater data. The testbed is approx. 5km*2,5km wide (Fig. 2). A total of 145 wells have been manually monitored each other week since 1996. In selected wells, continuous data logging is avail- able. The ground water level in the testbed is dominantly influenced by the seasonal water level variations of the Inn river and by industry water extraction. Small feeder rivers, local precipitation, water extraction by public water providers and households are of subordinate importance (Fig. 3). From these data, standardized, colour-coded groundwater table maps are created which show the groundwater level in regular intervals. These maps are com- piled to cartographic animations of groundwater level fluctuations. The animations aim at giving a straightforward and intuitive overview of the huge monitoring data set, unravelling the hydrological impact of the railway upgrade building measures (Fig. 4). 4 R. Marschallinger Fig. 2: Testbed, approx. 5km*2.5km wide. Existing track and upgrade of the Lower Inn Valley railway is shown as white, broken line which parallels the Inn river. Ground water monitoring sites are black crosses; they are unevenly distributed in the testbed, with clustering in places. The village Kundl is visible to the right of the image centre. When creating standardized groundwater table height maps from a real-world set of obser- vations, issues arise from missing observations in time and space (Marschallinger, 2006). Usual problems are: • Locally variable number of observation points, with data clustering (cf. Fig. 2). • Temporally varying number of observation points due to condensation of the ob- servation network, staff outages or technical problems with automatic data loggers during a measurement campaign (compare Fig. 3). To visualise the ground water table variations it is convenient to interpolate between the original monitoring data, i.e., to fill existing gaps in X,Y,t space with estimates. The result of interpolation algorithms is usually a regular 2D or 3D grid of estimates, which can be visualised as groundwater level contours and colour coded raster images, or as isosurfaces and voxel renderings. In hydrology, several interpolation methods are in use, e.g., triangula- tion with linear interpolation, minimum curvature and moving average algorithms (Davis, 2002). Among the moving average algorithms, geostatistical Kriging is considered a reli- Geostatistical space-time interpolation 5 able technique for interpolating hydrological data. It honours the spatial variability of input data, yielding robust estimates and associated standard deviations (Blöschl, 2006). Fig.3: Time series graphs of two fundamentally different monitoring sites in the testbed. Time interval is about 6 ½ years (abscissa), same scaling of level axes (ordinate). The lower graph is practically free of human interference, reflecting the seasonal changes of in the Inn water levels (highest in early summer). The upper graph is from an industrial site in the testbed. Here, the natural fluctuations are biased by water extraction. Kriging can be performed in 2D or 3D space. For example, in mining engineering, Kriging is routinely used to estimate 3D block models of reserves from samples, given xyz coordi- nates and associated grade values (Akin & Siemes, 1988). Principally, when interpolating groundwater table heights, 3D Kriging can be performed with time as the third dimension (Schafmeister, 1999). When monitoring data are available at reasonably small time incre- ments, the temporal autocorrelation can be used to buffer missing observations in the time series and to stabilise interpolation results in the X,Y,t model universe. Fig.4: Process pipeline for 3D space-time kriging of testbed groundwater levels and sub- sequent output of time slices (see text for details). In the project considered here, as a major step in the process pipeline (Fig. 4), a homogene- ous space-time data set is created from the inhomogeneous monitoring data by 3D Kriging 6 R. Marschallinger (Software: GSLIB). Missing observations in space and time (compare Fig. 5) are counter- balanced by spatially and/or temporally close monitoring data. Fig. 5: XYt (easting, northing, time) model universe for 3D kriging the testbed groundwa- ter level variations. Time series are represented as columns paralleling the time(=Z) axis, with each groundwater level datum plotted as a colour coded dot. In places, automatic data logging is available, resulting in tiny sampling intervals (displayed like continuous lines). Prior to geostatistical estimation, such 3D model space view is useful for explorative data analysis. Modified from Marschallinger (2008). Slant view from SE (SGEMS software). GSLIB outputs one voxel array of groundwater level estimates, and one voxel array of associated Kriging standard deviations. The voxel arrays, in the form of GSLIB ASCII files,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Brenner Base Tunnel: Strabag Consortium Awarded Contract for Main Section Tulfes–Pfons in Tyrol
    Press Release Investor Information 4 June 2014 BRENNER BASE TUNNEL: STRABAG CONSORTIUM AWARDED CONTRACT FOR MAIN SECTION TULFES–PFONS IN TYROL Contract value of about € 380 million Bidding consortium of STRABAG AG (consortium leader with 51 %) and Salini Impregilo (49 %) Construction time 2014–2019 Vienna, 4 June 2014 Following expiry of the legally prescribed deadline for objections, the bidding consortium consisting of STRABAG and Salini Impregilo has officially been awarded the largest contract section to date for the Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT). For a contract value of about € 380 million, the consortium will build the twin-tube rail tunnel between Tulfes and Pfons as well as a section of the exploratory tunnel, the new rescue tunnel running parallel to the existing Innsbruck bypass, and two connecting side tunnels. The construction time for the approximately 38 tunnel kilometres is scheduled at 55 months, with work set to begin in the second half of 2014. The BBT, the heart of the new rail connection between Munich and Verona, runs for 55 km between Innsbruck and Franzensfeste (Fortezza). Including the existing Innsbruck bypass, which will connect with the BBT, the stretch of tunnel through the Alps comes to a total of 64 km, making it the longest underground railway connection in the world. The BBT consists of two single-track tubes, each 8.1 m wide, at a distance of 70 m from one another. The two tubes are linked at every 333 m through connecting side tunnels as escape routes in emergencies. The nearly horizontal stretch of tunnel avoids the gradients of the existing, more than 140-year-old Brenner Railway.
    [Show full text]
  • Maloja Passau
    Maloja Passau he Inn Cycle Path leads along the Upper Engadin lakes and, to a large extent, is made n the area around Guarda and Scoul the route offers several ascents and descents. From fter the town of Imst, before the Roppen Tunnel, the route leads directly through rom Telfs, the Inn Cycle Path continues on flat, asphalt or surfaced paths near the river p to the Bavarian border, the route follows cycle paths and forest tracks. The westerly n quiet roads the paths lead along the banks of idyllic rivers, through picturesque ou will be mostly cycling along the dam crest of the River Inn, close to nature on t the point where the Danube, Inn and Ilz flow together, the Inn Cycle Path ends in the Tup of mostly unsurfaced flat paths and tracks. The section from Maloja to Sils leads Ithe Swiss border, the Inn Cycle Path leads through lush meadows and usually close to the Athe Imster Schlucht gorge. Then it continues with descents and slight ascents. The Fbank all the way to Innsbruck. In the city, the cycle path leads directly along the River Uroute leads between Kiefersfelden as far as Griesstätt on flat, gravelled paths, nearly Ovillages, shady forests and across unspoiled farmland. In this section there are also Y non-asphalted paths. Short sections are asphalted. There are numerous possibilities to Athree-river town of Passau. along the main road with constant views of Lake Silser See, the route from S-chanf to river and is somewhat hilly and steadily sloping downhill. From Landeck, the cycle path is cycle path follows the north side of the river.
    [Show full text]
  • Bavaria & the Tyrol
    AUSTRIA & GERMANY Bavaria & the Tyrol A Guided Walking Adventure Table of Contents Daily Itinerary ........................................................................... 4 Tour Itinerary Overview .......................................................... 13 Tour Facts at a Glance ........................................................... 15 Traveling To and From Your Tour .......................................... 17 Information & Policies ............................................................ 20 Austria at a Glance ................................................................. 22 Germany at a Glance ............................................................. 26 Packing List ........................................................................... 31 800.464.9255 / countrywalkers.com 2 © 2015 Otago, LLC dba Country Walkers Travel Style This small-group Guided Walking Adventure offers an authentic travel experience, one that takes you away from the crowds and deep in to the fabric of local life. On it, you’ll enjoy 24/7 expert guides, premium accommodations, delicious meals, effortless transportation, and local wine or beer with dinner. Rest assured that every trip detail has been anticipated so you’re free to enjoy an adventure that exceeds your expectations. And, with our optional Flight + Tour ComboCombo,, Munich PrePre----TourTour Extension and Salzbug PostPost----TourTour Extension to complement this destination, we take care of all the travel to simplify the journey. Refer to the attached itinerary for more details.
    [Show full text]
  • Öbb-Infrastruktur Aktiengesellschaft
    Supplement No. 2 dated 14 June 2013 to the Debt Issuance Programme Prospectus dated 27 June 2012 ÖBB-INFRASTRUKTUR AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT Euro 20,000,000,000 Debt Issuance Programme Guaranteed by the Republic of Austria (the "Programme") This supplement no. 2 to the Euro 20,000,000,000 Debt Issuance Programme Prospectus of ÖBB-Infrastruktur Aktiengesellschaft ("ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG" or the “Issuer”) dated 27 June 2012 (the "Supplement No. 2") is prepared in connection with the Programme for the issue of notes issued under this Programme (the "Notes") of ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG and is supplemental to, and should be read in conjunction with, the Debt Issuance Programme Prospectus dated 27 June 2012 (the "Original Prospectus") and the supplement no. 1 to the Original Prospectus dated 29 April 2013 (the "Supplement No. 1") in respect of the Programme. This Supplement No. 2 is a supplement in the meaning of article 13.1 of the Luxembourg Act on Securities Prospectuses (loi relative aux prospectus pour valeurs mobilières) which implements article 16 of the Prospectus Directive. Unless otherwise stated or the context otherwise requires, terms defined in the Original Prospectus have the same meaning when used in this Supplement No. 2. As used herein "Prospectus" means the Original Prospectus as supplemented by the Supplement No. 1 and this Supplement No. 2. The Supplement No. 2 is related to (i) recent changes relating to the description of the Issuer and (ii) the publication of the annual financial report for the business year 2012 containing the consolidated financial statements of the Issuer as of 31.12.2012.
    [Show full text]
  • We Move Austria Forward
    We move Austria forward. ANNUAL REPORT 2015 ÖBB-INFRASTRUKTUR AG Contents CONSOLIDATED MANAGEMENT REPORT 2 CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 39 A. Group Structure and Investments 2 Consolidated Income Statement 2015 39 B. General Conditions and Market Environment 3 Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income 2015 40 C. Economic report and outlook 7 Consolidated Statement of Financial Position D. Non-financial performance indicators 22 as of December 31, 2015 41 E. Group Relationships 28 Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow 2015 42 F. Opportunities / Risk report 29 Consolidated Statement of Changes G. Significant events after the eportingr date are 35 in Shareholders’ Equity 2015 43 H. Notes on the Management Report 36 NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL Glossary of Terms 37 STATEMENTS AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2015 44 Statement pursuant to Article 82 (4) clause 3 BörseG 38 A. Basis and Methods 44 B. Notes on the Consolidated Statement of Financial Position and the Consolidated Income Statement 58 C. Other Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements 83 AUDITORS’ REPORT 113 2 A. Group Structure and Investments The ÖBB-Infrastruktur Group must ensure the economical use and provision of Austrian railway infrastructure for all railway operators without discriminating. In addition, the ÖBB-Infrastruktur Group builds the Austrian railway infrastructure on behalf of and for the benefit of its owner, the Republic of Austria. The financing of the capital expenditures in rail infrastructure development is ensured through the cash flow generated, outside capital and guarantees and investment grants from the federal government on the basis of multi-year master plans. Management, development and utilization of real estate belonging to the ÖBB Group is the responsibility of ÖBB- Immobilienmanagement Gesellschaft mbH, a subsidiary of ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG.
    [Show full text]
  • Scan Med Corridor Alpine Region
    SCAN MED CORRIDOR ALPINE REGION A new transport route for Europe MÜNCHEN INNSBRUCK BOZEN/BOLZANO TRENTO VERONA 1 SCAN MED CORRIDOR ALPINE REGION A new transport route for Europe 2 1 CONTENTS Preface 5 1 The Alpine region as the centrepiece of the Scan-Med Corridor 6 The Brenner Pass: a historical alpine crossing 7 The route of the Scan-Med Corridor through the Alps 8 Strategies for the Alpine region 11 Integration into the European transport system 12 2 Economic geography and transport infrastructure 14 Physical and human geography of the Alpine region 15 Economic geography: structures and dynamics in the Alpine region 16 Environmental qualities and challenges 20 Traffic development 23 3 Transport policy and infrastructure initiatives 26 Infrastructure expansions in context of national policies 27 Infrastructure companies and collaborative development of infrastructure 29 Collaborative development of the Brenner axis 30 Publisher Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Innovation und Technologie Goals and initiatives on the regional level 31 Radetzkystraße 2 A-1030 Wien Common policy measures: towards a modal shift from road to rail 34 In Cooperation with 4 The current state of the Scan-Med Corridor and infrastructure projects 36 Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti The current state of rail infrastructure 37 DB Netz AG ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG Projects on the northern access route München-Innsbruck 40 Rete Ferroviaria Italiana S.p.A. Galleria di Base del Brennero – Brenner Basistunnel
    [Show full text]
  • Download Download
    Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings 31:5–9, 2021 © 2021 The Author(s). Licensed under a CC-BY 4.0 licence https://doi.org/10.14311/APP.2021.31.0005 Published by the Czech Technical University in Prague HIGH-SPEED RAIL NETWORK AND PERIODIC TIMETABLE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS Michal Drábek∗, Dominik Mazel, Jiří Pospíšil Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Transportation Sciences, Department of Logistics and Management of Transport, Horská 3, 128 03 Prague 2, Czech Republic ∗ corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract. This paper compares chosen European high-speed railway (HS) networks in terms of their offer of HS passenger service. The criteria chosen for comparison are network topology, degree of service periodicity and degree of coordination between subsequent services. Only services with HS trains are taken into account. As a result, each examined network is classified according to prevailing approach to passenger service – either Line/Service (LS) Approach, where transfer connections are in general not anticipated, or Network (N) approach, with regular (mostly periodic) public transport lines and periodic transfer connections between them. The comparative analysis has shown that geography had crucial impact not only on national (or regional) HS line network, but on the HS operational concept as well. On trunk HS lines, which connect most populated agglomerations in particular country, there is always – at least during peak times – some form of periodic service, despite compulsory seat reservation (except state-owned carriers in Austria and Germany). Half of analyzed networks can be characterized by N approach – at least on trunk HS lines or within central "core" part of HS network.
    [Show full text]
  • The Year Round. a Weekly Journal
    " THE STOKT OF ODE LIVES FROM YEAK TO YEAR."—SHAKKSPEAEB. ALL THE YEAR ROUND. A WEEKLY JOURNAL. CONDUCTED BY CHARLES DICKENS. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED HOUSEHOLD WORDS. N°- 493.] SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 186S. [PKICE 2d. suffers without noise. I think you may safely HESTER'S HISTORY. take yonder Httle maid under your wing, sister A NETV SEKIAL TALE. Mary. The whole character of her bearing is true. She endures fear without losing self- possession, and she takes a favour in good faith CHAPTER XI. Df TBE HOSPITAL. and with all simplicity." " I KNOW Lady Humphrey," said Sir Archie, " It is pleasant to hear you say so," said the "I have met her and her son in London. The mother, " for 1 have thought much the same son is a good-natured young fellow enough. myself. I will take care not to lose sight of He informed me ou one occasion that our our protegee. And we will make ourselves her mothers had been friends. From the way in guardians: as far as the wise Providence per­ which her name was received at home when I mits us to be able." mentioned it—never oonnccting it in my mind In the mean time Hester lingered amongst with any person of whom I had heard—I should her vines up so high, till the brother and sister have thought that not likely to be true. The passed out of her sight, from the patlis in recollection of the woman is not pleasant to my the garden down below. The next thing of mother." interest she saw was a lay sister in her wliite " All bitter feeling has had time to be for- veil and apron, with a basket of new laid ttten," said the Mother Augustine.
    [Show full text]
  • Moving Austria Better
    MOVING AUSTRIA Annual Report 2014 BETTER ANNUAL REPORT 2014 ÖBB-INFRASTRUKTUR AG Contents CONSOLIDATED MANAGEMENT REPORT 2 CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 36 A. Structure, Investments and Branches 2 Consolidated Income Statement 2014 36 B. Economic Report and Outlook 3 Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income 2014 37 C. Human Capital Report 20 Consolidated Statement of Financial Position D. Real Estate Management 23 as of December 31, 2014 38 E. Research and Development Report 24 Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow 2014 39 F. Environmental Report 25 Consolidated Statement of Changes G. Accessibility 27 in Shareholders’ Equity 2014 40 H. Group Relations 27 I. Opportunities/Risk Report 28 NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL J. Significant events after the reporting date 33 STATEMENTS AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2014 41 K. Notes on the Management Report 33 A. Basis and Methods 41 B. Notes on the Consolidated Statement of Financial Position Glossary of Terms 34 and the Consolidated Income Statement 56 Statement pursuant to Article 82 (4) clause 3 BörseG 35 C. Other Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements 80 AUDITORS’ REPORT 110 A. STRUCTURE, INVESTMENTS AND BRANCHES 280 The ÖBB-Infrastruktur Group must ensure the economical use and provision of Austrian railway infrastructure for all railway operators without discriminating. In addition, the ÖBB-Infrastruktur Group builds the Austrian railway infrastructure on behalf of and for the benefit of its owner, the Republic of Austria. The financing of the investments in rail infrastructure development is now ensured through the cash flow generated, outside capital and guarantees and grants from the federal government on the basis of multi-year master plans.
    [Show full text]
  • Textos Reflexivos En Redes Internacionales De Educación Para El Desarrollo Sostenible Análisis Del Lenguaje Evaluativo Desde La Teoría De La Valoración
    Tesis doctoral Textos reflexivos en redes internacionales de Educación para el Desarrollo Sostenible Análisis del lenguaje evaluativo desde la Teoría de la Valoración Autora: Esther Sabio Collado Directoras: Mariona Espinet Blanch e Isabel Martins Bellaterra, Junio 2015 Departament de Didàctica de la Matemàtica i de les Ciències Experimentals Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona CSII RAR, by AC (A14) Seminar for teachers and teacher trainers Teacher Competencies for Education for Sustainable Development Sept. 19th – 24th, 2010 Innsbruck, Austria Report Regina Steiner FORUM Umweltbildung [email protected] 1 Contents 1 Summary 3 2 The Venue 4 3 Description of Activities 4 3.1 Visit to Practice Primary and Practice Secondary School (with Caroline Abfalter, Waltraud Egger) 5 3.2 Quality Criteria in ESD Schools (Christine Lechner) 6 3.3 Teacher Competences for ESD – CSCT and KOM‐BiNE (Regina Steiner) 9 3.4 Quality Criteria in Practice 3.4.1 Visit to Upper Secondary Grammar Schools “PORG Volders” (with Franz Leeb) 11 3.4.2 Visit to Primary School “VS Schwaz” (with Kristina Psenner) 12 3.5 Excursion “Sustainability? Two Valleys provide an Answer” (Franz Riegler, Hans Hofer) 13 3.6 Teacher Competences for ESD to foster SD Competences of Pupils – The models “Gestaltungs‐Kompetenz” and the Competency Model of Global Education” in Germany (Reiner Mathar) 14 3.7 Systematic Development of ESD Competences. The Portfolio as a Tool for Working on Individual and Team Competences in Schools (Barbara Sieber) 15 3.8 Methods for Sharing and Jointly Further‐Developing of ESD Schools and Teacher Training (Regina Steiner) 16 3.8.1 The World Café 16 3.8.2 The Future Workshop 17 4 Evaluation 21 4.1.
    [Show full text]
  • Risk Management – Correlation and Dependencies for Planning, Design and Construction Philip Sander Alfred Moergeli John Reilly Content
    Risk Management – Correlation and Dependencies for Planning, Design and Construction Philip Sander Alfred Moergeli John Reilly Content 1. Advanced Probabilistic Risk Modeling 2. Risks Occurring Multiple Times 3. Event Tree Analysis 4. RAMS Analysis Risk Management – Correlation and Dependencies for Planning, Design and Construction www.riskcon.at www.moergeli.com www.johnreilly.us Slide 2 Advanced Probabilistic Risk Modeling The advantages of very advanced, probabilistic risk modeling (RIAAT 2014), such as currently used for the Koralm and Brenner Base Tunnels in Austria, include: • Better, more complete modeling of the project and the ability to correlate risk events • A more detailed risk assessment and useful risk management information • More transparency and reporting of outcomes, e.g., ranking of risks, tornado diagrams • The ability to monitor and document changes to the project • The ability to integrate change order management Although correlations (and dependencies) are a ubiquitous concept in modern risk management, they are also one of the most misunderstood concepts. Risk Management – Correlation and Dependencies for Planning, Design and Construction www.riskcon.at www.moergeli.com www.johnreilly.us Slide 3 Correlations and Dependencies Correlations quantify how specific change on one project element or characteristic is linked to a change in related project elements. Example 1: A change in the price of steel will cause changes in the cost of several related project elements. Example 2: A probability of high labor costs can lead to a high impact of time-related cost in other project elements. Dependencies characterize risks that are related: One risk may trigger one or more other risks, or one risk may influence the consequence (value) of another risk (or multiple risks).
    [Show full text]
  • TBM and Lining - Essential Interfaces
    TBM and Lining - Essential Interfaces Nguyen Duc Toan Prof. Daniele Peila Dr. Harald Wagner TBM and Lining Essential Interfaces Student: Nguyen Duc Toan Dissertation submitted to the Politecnico di Torino, Consortium for the Research and Permanent Education (COREP), and D2 Consult Dr. Wagner Dr. Schulter GmbH & Co. KG in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Tunnelling and Tunnel Boring Machines Academic Tutor: Company Tutor: Prof. Daniele Peila Dr. Harald Wagner Turin, Italy October 2006 Abstract Optimization of segmental lining design and construction, in close relation with proper selection and operation of the tunnel boring machine (TBM), are the two among major concerns for the owners, designers and contractors, in all tunnelling areas. The main task of this work is to deal with this subject, using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. It is challenging to achieve the attractive and effective mechanized tunnelling alternatives in saving both time and cost without a comprehensive and interdisciplinary consideration. The Parties involved should be aware of the proper approaches in adopting the mechanized tunnelling technology for a given tunnel project. Every TBM tunnel project needs to be feasible from both operational and engineering points of view, environmentally acceptable and value for money. A significant scrutiny on the critical cases of TBM excavation has been conducted to identify and rectify the obscure aspects that are often associated with TBM tunnelling, in terms of risk management and project management. Difficult or critical cases of excavation in various mechanized tunnelling techniques (with certain kinds of TBMs) are analysed in connection with face stability and ground reinforcement issues.
    [Show full text]