Gore's Strongest on Health Care

ABC NEWS POLL: CAMPAIGN TRACKING #16 - 11/1/00 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 2, 2000

Gore’s Strongest on Health Care - But it’s Not a Top-Ranked Issue

Health care is a great issue for Al Gore: He’s stressed it in the campaign and he wins voters who care most about it by a lopsided 35-point margin. Gore’s problem: In a list of seven top issues, it ranks only fifth.

Twelve percent of likely voters rate health care as the most important issue in their vote – including twice as many women as men, and twice as many independents as Republicans. Health care voters support Gore over George W. Bush by a whopping 63-28 percent.

But is it the right issue for Gore to own? Maybe not. Considerably more people pick education as the top issue, 20 percent, and Gore wins them by a much narrower 11-point margin. The economy, Social Security and taxes also beat out health care, and Bush leads hugely on taxes.

These issues fuel a close and basically stable race, with a small but fairly steady edge to Bush. He has 49 percent support among likely voters interviewed Monday through Wednesday night, Gore 45 percent, Ralph Nader three and Pat Buchanan one. It’s about the same without Nader and Buchanan, 51-46 percent.

50 Bush

Gore

30 The 2000 Election ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post Polls 20 Results are among likely voters

10 Nader

Buchanan 0

t uly May J Aug Oc

Bush has held a small numerical advantage in 16 out of 20 ABC News polls since Labor Day. Three were tied (including last Sunday’s result) and Gore was +2 on Oct. 1. But Bush’s edge has been a small one – ranging from one to five points, and averaging two points across all these polls. With mere days to go, the race isn’t over.

ISSUES – Gore leads in four of the top five issues tested in this poll. His problems are that his biggest lead is in a somewhat lesser issue; that his other leads are not nearly as large as Bill Clinton’s were in 1996; and that Bush’s lead on one issue, taxes, is so big. (See yesterday’s analysis, Tracking #15).

Vote preference Most important issue: All Gore Bush Gap Education 20% 53% 42 Gore +11 Economy 16 55 40 Gore +15 Taxes 15 17 79 Bush +62 Social Security 15 55 41 Gore +14 Health care 12 63 28 Gore +35 World affairs 9 na Rx drugs 5 na

UNION – Turnout’s critical in a close race – not simply how many people show up to vote, but who they are and whom they support. Labor is a prime example: Gore is winning a healthy chunk of voters from union households, 61-33 percent.

But in this poll those voters only account for 17 percent of all likely voters – whereas in 1996, 23 percent of voters were from union households. If union voters turn out at that level or better on Tuesday, it could make a difference.

Other groups are important as well. Blacks, the most monolithic Democratic group, account for about one in 10 voters – and 90 percent of them favor Gore. White religious conservatives – the “religious right” – similarly account for about one in 10 voters – and eight in 10 of them back Bush.

OTHER GROUPS – And there are the swing groups. Independents have shifted toward Bush, favoring him by 50-39 percent in this poll; Bush also is leading by 11 points among suburbanites. But white Catholics continue to divide evenly, as do middle class voters – 48 percent for Gore, 46 percent Bush.

Most men remain solidly on Bush’s side; he now leads among men by 55-39 percent, and among white men by 59-35 percent. Women have been more changeable; they now back Gore, but by just eight points, 51-43 percent. And among white women it’s Bush 49 percent, Gore 46.

METHODOLOGY - This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2000 among a random national sample of 1,032 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Analysis by Gary Langer.

ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/PollVault/PollVault.html

Here are the full results (* is less than 0.5 percent.). Call for full trend.

3. The candidates in November's presidential election are (Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman, the Democrats,) (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke of the Green Party) and (Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster of the Reform Party). If the election were being held today, who would you vote for - (Gore), (Bush), (Nader) or (Buchanan)?

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 11/1/00 45 49 1 3 1 * * 2 10/31/00 45 49 * 3 * * * 2 10/30/00 45 48 * 3 * * * 1 10/29/00 47 47 * 3 * * * 2 10/28/00 46 47 1 4 * * * 2 10/27/00 46 47 1 4 * 1 * 2 10/26/00 45 49 1 4 * * * 2 10/25/00 45 48 1 3 * * * 2 10/24/00 46 48 1 3 1 0 * 2 10/23/00 46 47 1 3 * 0 * 2 10/22/00 47 47 1 3 * * * 2 10/21/00 45 48 1 3 * * * 2 10/20/00 45 48 1 3 * * * 2 10/19/00 43 48 1 3 1 * 1 3 10/18/00 44 48 1 3 1 * 1 3 10/17/00 43 48 1 3 1 * 1 3 10/15/00 44 48 1 4 1 * * 3 10/9/00 45 48 * 3 * 1 * 2 10/1/00 48 46 1 3 1 * * 2 9/6/00 47 47 * 3 1 1 0 2 8/20/00 48 44 2 3 1 * * 1 8/10/00 42 50 2 5 * * * 1 8/6/00 37 52 3 5 * 0 * 2 7/29/00 37 52 2 7 1 1 * 1 7/23/00 38 46 6 8 1 * 1 1 6/11/00 43 48 3 3 1 * * 2 5/10/00 38 48 5 5 2 0 * 2

4. Do you support (Gore/Bush/Buchanan/Nader) strongly, or not strongly?

------Gore------Bush------Nader*----- Strng Not No op. Strng Not No op. Strng. Not No op. Likely Voters: 11/1/00 77 22 2 85 14 1 71 28 1 10/31/00 77 21 2 85 14 1 69 30 1 10/30/00 80 18 2 84 14 1 69 30 1 10/29/00 81 18 2 83 14 2 70 29 1 10/28/00 82 17 1 83 16 2 72 27 1 10/27/00 82 17 1 83 15 2 68 30 1 10/26/00 81 18 1 81 17 1 68 31 2 10/25/00 79 20 1 81 17 1 10/24/00 80 18 1 80 18 2 10/23/00 78 20 2 81 17 2 10/21/00 76 22 2 84 15 1 10/20/00 77 21 2 85 14 1 10/19/00 80 18 1 84 15 1 10/18/00 81 17 2 82 16 1 10/17/00 81 18 1 82 16 1 *Includes aggregated data from all tracking waves to date.

5. Will you definitely vote for (Gore/Bush/Nader/Buchanan) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

11/1/00 Likely Voters: ------Change mind------Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion Gore 83 7 9 1 Bush 90 5 5 1 Nader* 48 31 16 5 *Includes aggregated data from all tracking waves to date.

6. If the only candidates were (Gore) and (Bush), who would you vote for?

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 11/1/00 46 51 1 0 1 1 10/31/00 47 50 1 * 1 1 10/30/00 48 50 1 * 1 1 10/29/00 49 48 1 * 1 1 10/28/00 49 49 1 * 1 1 10/27/00 48 49 1 * 1 1 10/26/00 47 51 * 0 1 1 10/25/00 48 50 * 0 1 1 10/24/00 48 49 1 0 * 1 10/23/00 49 49 1 1 1 1 10/22/00 49 48 1 1 1 1 10/21/00 48 49 * 0 1 2 10/20/00 47 49 1 0 1 2 10/19/00 45 50 1 0 2 2 10/18/00 46 49 1 0 2 2 10/9/00 46 50 1 * 1 1

7. Which one of these issues is most important in your vote for president - world affairs, prescription drugs, health care, the economy, taxes, education or Social Security?

World Presc. Health Economy Taxes Educ. Social Other None No affairs drugs care Sec. (VOL) (VOL) op. Likely Voters: 11/1/00 9 5 12 16 15 20 15 5 1 2 10/31/00 8 6 12 17 15 20 14 5 1 2

8. Regardless of which candidate you prefer, if (GORE/BUSH) is elected do you think he'd probably be a good president, or not?

Gore: Good Not good No opinion Likely Voters: 11/1/00 59 36 5 10/31/00 59 36 6 Registered Voters: 9/6/00 69 27 4

Bush: Good Not good No opinion Likely Voters: 11/1/00 63 30 7 10/31/00 64 28 8 Registered Voters: 9/6/00 69 26 5

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