March 13, 2006
October 24 , 2008 National Public Radio The Final Weeks of the Campaign
October 23, 2008 1,000 Likely Voters Presidential Battleground States in the presidential battleground: blue and red states
Total State List BLUE STATES RED STATES Colorado Minnesota Colorado Florida Wisconsin Florida Indiana Michigan Iowa Iowa New Hampshire Missouri Michigan Pennsylvania Nevada Missouri New Mexico Minnesota Ohio Nevada Virginia New Hampshire Indiana New Mexico North Carolina North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin
National Public Radio, October 2008 Battleground Landscape
National Public Radio, October 2008 ‘Wrong track’ in presidential battleground high
Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the Right direction Wrong track wrong track?
82 80 75
17 13 14
Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Net -58 -69 -66 Difference
*Note: The September 20, 2008, survey did not include Indiana, though it was included for both the August and October waves.Page 4 Data | Greenberg from National Quinlan Public Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Radio Presidential Battleground surveys over the past three months. Two thirds of voters in battleground disapprove of George Bush
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove
64 66 61
35 32 30
Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08
Net -26 -32 -36 Difference
*Note: The September 20, 2008, survey did not include Indiana, though it was included for both the August and October waves.Page 5 Data | Greenberg from National Quinlan Public Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Radio Presidential Battleground surveys over the past three months. Both candidates’ supporters very interested; independents interest lower
As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year’s elections.
85 84 83 80 74
Very interested Very interested Very interested Very interested Very interested Obama McCain Democrats Independents Republicans Voters Voters
Page 6 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 The Race in the Battleground
National Public Radio, October 2008 Voters ready to cast their ballot
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read the pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Statement 1: I’ve made up my mind and I’m ready Statement 2: I’m waiting until election day to to cast my vote for president. finally decide who I’m voting for.
First statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement strongly Second statement somewhat
+67 83 79
16
12
Ready to cast vote Waiting to decide
Page 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Groups waiting for election day to choose a presidential candidate
White Devout Mainline Protestants 30
White Older Unmarried Men 26
Independents 26
White Unmarried Men 24
White Older Non-College Men 23
Liberal/Moderate Republicans 23
Separated/Divorced/Widowed Women 22
White Young College Women 22
White Young College 21
Age 30-39 21
Moderates 21
No College White Men 20
01530 Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Obama ahead in key battleground states
If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?
Democrat John Kerry Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Republican George Bush Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr
Obama +11 Bush +4
52 52 48 41
2 1
Obama McCain Nader Barr Kerry Bush Total Voters 2004 Vote* *Note: Represents the actual 2004 vote in these presidential National Public Radio, October 2008 battleground states. Obama emerges ahead in key battleground states
If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?
John McCain Barack Obama
52 47 47
44 44 41
Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08
Net Obama +3 McCain +3 Obama +11 Difference
*Note: The September 20, 2008, survey did not include Indiana, though it was included for both the August and October waves.Page 11 Data | Greenberg from National Quinlan Public Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Radio Presidential Battleground surveys over the past three months. Obama leads among independents, both candidates have unified base
If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?
Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr
Obama +84 Obama +12 McCain +83
90 91
48 36
6 5 8 1 1 3 0 0 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans
Page 12 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Key groups are split
If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?
Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain
McCain +4 Obama +5 Obama +14 McCain +8 Tied
54 53 48 50 48 48 44 42 41 39
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain Seniors Catholics Suburban White Rural White older non- college women National Public Radio, October 2008 Page 13 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner The candidates and campaigns
National Public Radio, October 2008 Voters remember seeing many more ads and news media stories from Obama Now I'd like to ask you which presidential candidate's campaign has tried more to reach you in different ways, Obama Barack Obama or John McCain. Advantage John McCain much more McCain smwht more/both Barack Obama much more Obama smwht more/both Received information through watching either advertisements 35 7 31 66 +31 or news stories on television
Spoken with someone who came to your door from one of the campaigns 6 15 22 +16 or another political organization
Received phone calls from the campaigns or other political 26 11 17 34 +8 organizations
Received printed materials in the mail from the campaigns or 35 12 18 40 +5 another political organization
75 50 25 0 25 50 75 National Public Radio, October 2008 Page 15 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Obama has on-line advantage Now I'd like to ask you which presidential candidate's campaign has tried more to reach you in different ways, Obama Barack Obama or John McCain. Advantage John McCain much more McCain smwt more/both Barack Obama much more Obama smwht more/both Watched a campaign commercial 15 16 31 +16 on-line
Visited a campaign or candidate- 8 15 sponsored website 20 31 +11
Watched viral videos online from organizations other than the 12 11 23 +11 campaigns or news outlets
Received emails from the campaigns or other political 16 8 17 26 +10 organizations
Received campaign or candidate information on your cell phone or 11 9 17 +6 personal digital assistant
National Public Radio, October60 2008 45 30 15 0 15 30 45 60 Page 16 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Issue and character priorities
National Public Radio, October 2008 The issue triangle: economy, reform and national security
Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. For my vote in November, (National Security OR the economy and keeping our country prosperous OR cleaning up Washington and special interests and getting both parties to work together to get things done) will be the more important issue. Cleaning up Total voters: 0 The Economy and Washington and keeping the special interests country prosperous
Total voters: +4 Total voters: +5
National security and keeping the country safe Page 18 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 The leadership triangle: change dominates advocacy and experience
Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. For my vote in November it is more important to me that the candidate I vote for, (will bring the right kind of change OR has the right experience OR will fight for people like me). Right kind of change
Total voters: +14 Total voters: +29
Has the right Will fight for experience people like me Total voters: +8
Page 19 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Government Balance vs. Single Party Control
National Public Radio, October 2008 Voters want a Republican president to keep the Congress in check
As you probably know it is likely that after the elections in November the Democrats will control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If that is the case do you think that it would be better to have a Democratic president so that he can work with the Congress and get things done, a Republican president so that he can keep the Congress in check and provide some balance in the government, or does it not matter?
-8
40 32
Democratic president so they can get things Republican president to keep the Congress in done check
Page 21 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Prefer unified government under Obama but not by much
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read the pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Statement 1: I hope that Barack Obama is elected Statement 2: I hope that John McCain is president in November because the Democrats elected president in November because the already control the House of Representatives and Democrats already control the House of the Senate and he will work effectively with them Representatives and the Senate and we need a to get things done. Republican to provide balance to the Democratic agenda. First statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement strongly Second statement somewhat +5 49 44
40 39
Obama McCain Page 22 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Campaign Closing Arguments
National Public Radio, October 2008 Voters want to hear the candidates’ plans for the future
Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read the pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Statement 1: With the campaign almost over, I Statement 2: With the campaign almost over, I really want to hear what the candidates plan to do really want to know what kind of people the and their vision for the country. candidates listen to when making important decisions. First statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement strongly Second statement somewhat +16
55
44 39
29
Want to know Vision Want to know who candidates listen to
Page 24 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 McCain’s experience top reason to vote for him
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons to vote for John McCain. Please tell me which TWO of the following are the top reasons that would make you more likely to vote for John McCain on Election Day?
Has the experience to be commander in chief on day one 28
Has a plan to stop our reliance on foreign oil by drilling here in America 20
Will extend recent tax cuts and keep taxes low for all 18 Americans
Will put an end to earmarks and pork barrel spending 18
Will end the culture of corruption and lessen the influence of special interests 16
Will continue building on our recent successes in Iraq to 14 achieve victory Has an economic plan to stabilize the markets and our 7 financial institutions Provide a 5,000 dollar health care tax credit to every American so they can have choice in their coverage 6
Just can't vote for Barack Obama 6
To elect an independent leadership who can work with both parties to make the changes we need 5
National Public Radio, October 2008 01530 McCain’s experience top reason for Republicans/independents to support
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons to vote for John McCain. Please tell me which TWO of the following are the top reasons that would make you more likely to vote for John McCain on Election Day?
42 Republicans Has the experience to be commander in chief on day one 29 Independents Has a plan to stop our reliance on foreign oil by drilling here in 29 America 17 Will extend recent tax cuts and keep taxes low for all 27 Americans 18 Will continue building on our recent successes in Iraq to 23 achieve victory 13 19 Will put an end to earmarks and pork barrel spending 26 Will end the culture of corruption and lessen the influence of 12 special interests 21 10 Just can't vote for Barack Obama 5 Has an economic plan to stabilize the markets and our 7 financial institutions 9 To elect an independent leadership who can work with both 7 parties to make the changes we need 6 Provide a 5,000 dollar health care tax credit to every American 5 so they can have choice in their coverage 5 National Public Radio, October 2008 01530 Diverse set of reasons to support Obama
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons to vote for Barack Obama. Please tell me which TWO of the following are the top reasons that would make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama on Election Day?
Will invest in renewable energy creating a new energy industry 20 and five million green jobs Will do something about health care costs and insurance 18 companies Will end the war in Iraq and redeploy our troops from Iraq to 18 Afghanistan Will end Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy and redirect those to 17 the middle class
Will get the economy working for the middle class again 17
Will bring the right kind of change to Washington and end the 13 failed policies of the past eight years Has a plan to give each college-bound student a tax credit in 11 exchange for community service Will work across the aisle, end the partisan bickering in Washington and unite the country 10
Has an economic plan to stabilize the markets and our 9 financial institutions
Just can't vote for John McCain 4
National Public Radio, October 2008 01530 Iraq top reason Democrats support Obama, energy top for independents
Now I am going to read you a list of reasons to vote for Barack Obama. Please tell me which TWO of the following are the top reasons that would make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama on Election Day? Democrats Will end the war in Iraq and redeploy our troops from Iraq to 27 Independents Afghanistan 19 26 Will get the economy working for the middle class again 17 Will do something about health care costs and insurance 26 companies 16
Will end Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy and redirect those to 24 the middle class 19 Will bring the right kind of change to Washington and end the 19 failed policies of the past eight years 16 Will invest in renewable energy creating a new energy industry 15 and five million green jobs 25 Has an economic plan to stabilize the markets and our 14 financial institutions 6 Will work across the aisle, end the partisan bickering in 11 Washington and unite the country 11 Has a plan to give each college-bound student a tax credit in 9 exchange for community service 11 4 Just can't vote for John McCain 4 National Public Radio, October 2008 01530 www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California London, UK 10 G Street NE, 50 California Street, 405 Carrington House, Suite 500 Suite 1500 6 Hertford Street Washington, DC 20002 San Francisco, CA 94111 London, UK W1J 7SU
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National Public Radio, October 2008