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March 13, 2006 October 24 , 2008 National Public Radio The Final Weeks of the Campaign October 23, 2008 1,000 Likely Voters Presidential Battleground States in the presidential battleground: blue and red states Total State List BLUE STATES RED STATES Colorado Minnesota Colorado Florida Wisconsin Florida Indiana Michigan Iowa Iowa New Hampshire Missouri Michigan Pennsylvania Nevada Missouri New Mexico Minnesota Ohio Nevada Virginia New Hampshire Indiana New Mexico North Carolina North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin National Public Radio, October 2008 Battleground Landscape National Public Radio, October 2008 ‘Wrong track’ in presidential battleground high Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the Right direction Wrong track wrong track? 82 80 75 17 13 14 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Net -58 -69 -66 Difference *Note: The September 20, 2008, survey did not include Indiana, though it was included for both the August and October waves.Page 4 Data | Greenberg from National Quinlan Public Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Radio Presidential Battleground surveys over the past three months. Two thirds of voters in battleground disapprove of George Bush Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove 64 66 61 35 32 30 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Net -26 -32 -36 Difference *Note: The September 20, 2008, survey did not include Indiana, though it was included for both the August and October waves.Page 5 Data | Greenberg from National Quinlan Public Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Radio Presidential Battleground surveys over the past three months. Both candidates’ supporters very interested; independents interest lower As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year’s elections. 85 84 83 80 74 Very interested Very interested Very interested Very interested Very interested Obama McCain Democrats Independents Republicans Voters Voters Page 6 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 The Race in the Battleground National Public Radio, October 2008 Voters ready to cast their ballot Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read the pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Statement 1: I’ve made up my mind and I’m ready Statement 2: I’m waiting until election day to to cast my vote for president. finally decide who I’m voting for. First statement strongly First statement somewhat Second statement strongly Second statement somewhat +67 83 79 16 12 Ready to cast vote Waiting to decide Page 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Groups waiting for election day to choose a presidential candidate White Devout Mainline Protestants 30 White Older Unmarried Men 26 Independents 26 White Unmarried Men 24 White Older Non-College Men 23 Liberal/Moderate Republicans 23 Separated/Divorced/Widowed Women 22 White Young College Women 22 White Young College 21 Age 30-39 21 Moderates 21 No College White Men 20 01530 Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Obama ahead in key battleground states If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat John Kerry Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Republican George Bush Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Obama +11 Bush +4 52 52 48 41 2 1 Obama McCain Nader Barr Kerry Bush Total Voters 2004 Vote* *Note: Represents the actual 2004 vote in these presidential National Public Radio, October 2008 battleground states. Obama emerges ahead in key battleground states If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? John McCain Barack Obama 52 47 47 44 44 41 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Net Obama +3 McCain +3 Obama +11 Difference *Note: The September 20, 2008, survey did not include Indiana, though it was included for both the August and October waves.Page 11 Data | Greenberg from National Quinlan Public Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Radio Presidential Battleground surveys over the past three months. Obama leads among independents, both candidates have unified base If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Obama +84 Obama +12 McCain +83 90 91 48 36 6 5 8 1 1 3 0 0 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans Page 12 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Key groups are split If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain McCain +4 Obama +5 Obama +14 McCain +8 Tied 54 53 48 50 48 48 44 42 41 39 ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain Seniors Catholics Suburban White Rural White older non- college women National Public Radio, October 2008 Page 13 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner The candidates and campaigns National Public Radio, October 2008 Voters remember seeing many more ads and news media stories from Obama Now I'd like to ask you which presidential candidate's campaign has tried more to reach you in different ways, Obama Barack Obama or John McCain. Advantage John McCain much more McCain smwht more/both Barack Obama much more Obama smwht more/both Received information through watching either advertisements 35 7 31 66 +31 or news stories on television Spoken with someone who came to your door from one of the campaigns 6 15 22 +16 or another political organization Received phone calls from the campaigns or other political 26 11 17 34 +8 organizations Received printed materials in the mail from the campaigns or 35 12 18 40 +5 another political organization 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 National Public Radio, October 2008 Page 15 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Obama has on-line advantage Now I'd like to ask you which presidential candidate's campaign has tried more to reach you in different ways, Obama Barack Obama or John McCain. Advantage John McCain much more McCain smwt more/both Barack Obama much more Obama smwht more/both Watched a campaign commercial 15 16 31 +16 on-line Visited a campaign or candidate- 8 15 sponsored website 20 31 +11 Watched viral videos online from organizations other than the 12 11 23 +11 campaigns or news outlets Received emails from the campaigns or other political 16 8 17 26 +10 organizations Received campaign or candidate information on your cell phone or 11 9 17 +6 personal digital assistant National Public Radio, October60 2008 45 30 15 0 15 30 45 60 Page 16 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Issue and character priorities National Public Radio, October 2008 The issue triangle: economy, reform and national security Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. For my vote in November, (National Security OR the economy and keeping our country prosperous OR cleaning up Washington and special interests and getting both parties to work together to get things done) will be the more important issue. Cleaning up Total voters: 0 The Economy and Washington and keeping the special interests country prosperous Total voters: +4 Total voters: +5 National security and keeping the country safe Page 18 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 The leadership triangle: change dominates advocacy and experience Now I'm going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. For my vote in November it is more important to me that the candidate I vote for, (will bring the right kind of change OR has the right experience OR will fight for people like me). Right kind of change Total voters: +14 Total voters: +29 Has the right Will fight for experience people like me Total voters: +8 Page 19 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Government Balance vs. Single Party Control National Public Radio, October 2008 Voters want a Republican president to keep the Congress in check As you probably know it is likely that after the elections in November the Democrats will control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If that is the case do you think that it would be better to have a Democratic president so that he can work with the Congress and get things done, a Republican president so that he can keep the Congress in check and provide some balance in the government, or does it not matter? -8 40 32 Democratic president so they can get things Republican president to keep the Congress in done check Page 21 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner National Public Radio, October 2008 Prefer unified government under Obama but not by much Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements.
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