The Nation and Battleground States: Post-Denver and Palin Choice

SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

September 8, 2008 The nation and battleground states: post-Denver and Palin choice

National survey of 1,000 likely voters Presidential battleground states survey of 1,000 likely voters SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Political Landscape

Page 2 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

‘Wrong Direction’ nationwide

Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the Right direction Wrong direction wrong track? *National Data* Petraeus Report 7878 Iraq surge 75 Election 71 72 73 2006 70 Katrina 6969 70 68 67 66 6666 66 62 64 62 63 62 60 61 58 68 56 56 63 52 55 51 58 55

37 37 42 41 35 34 37 34 24 24 34 31 30 31 28 28 2527 28 25 25 25 25 17 16 23 2322 2322 23 21 15

Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08

Net -9 -11 -22 -18 -19 -24 -31 -18 -25 -42 -36 -31 -31 -45 -24 -41-35 -43-41-48-47-44 -35-47-50-41-45-44 -52-58 -63 -62 -46 Difference

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last couple years. Page 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Republicans feeling significantly better about direction of the country

Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? *National Data* Wrong Right Shift

September 92 5 Democrats -2 July 92 7

September 74 19 Independents +8 July 83 11

September 40 50 Republicans +17 July 56 33

*Note: Net shift displays the difference between the last two waves 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Bush job approval low nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? *National Data* Approve Disapprove Petraeus Report Iraq surge 64 65 65 Election 2006 62 Katrina 605960 59 60 58 59 5859 57 5757 57 61 56 56 53 60 53 54 58 51 52 56 56 49 49 52 4651 50 4849 46 43 46 46 45 45 40 42 42 37 38 38 38 40 40 39 35 38 38 34 37 3737 36 36 35 35 33 31 31 29

Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08

Net +6 +4 0 -7 -8 -5 -14-4 -6 -17-16 -21 -12 -10 -17 -21-17-19-21-22-25-22-24-19-24-24-20-18-25-33 -36 -29 Difference -34 -27

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the past several years. Page 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Nationally, Bush approval rating increases

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? *National Data*

Disapprove Approve Shift

September 92 6 Democrats +3 July 95 3

September 60 31 Independents +3 July 64 28

September 25 69 Republicans +6 July 29 63

*Note: Net shift displays the difference between the last two waves 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

But Bush favorability rating remains low in battleground

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY Cool Warm COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. *Battleground Data*

58 55 56

35 33 32

Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Net -20 -23 -26 Difference

Page 7 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Democratic thermometer stable but Republicans move up

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, Democratic Party UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. *National Data* Republican Party Iraq Petraeus Election Surge Katrina 2006 Report 54 54 54 54 2008 53 53 53 52 53 52 52 52 51 51 51 53 50 50 50 51 51 51 52 49 49 51 49 49 49 49 50 47 48 5050 4947 48 48 47 46 46 47 47 47 46 46 46 44 44 45 45 45 45 44 43 43 43 43 43 42

Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Dec-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08

Net -3 -1 -2 +1 +1 -4 -4 -2 +3 +2 +3 +4 0 +2 +3 +11+9 +7 +4 +6 +4 +3+5+6+8+7+6 +4 Difference

*Note: Data represents the MEAN ratings from Democracy Corps surveys conducted Page 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner over the past four years. SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Democratic House vote flat at 50 percent, but GOP up

Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress Democratic candidate were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate*? *National Data* Republican candidate New 2008 Congress 54 52 53 53 53 52 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 50 50 53 50 50 50

45 43 43 4343 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 41 41 41 40 40 40 39

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08

Net +10+12 +8 +14 +8 +8 +11 +12 +9 +10 +9 +7 +11 +10 +13 +12 +10 +8 +8 +5 Difference

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the past year and a half. Candidates names inserted for candidates Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

The Presidential Election

Page 10 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Obama emerges with real national lead

Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Obama John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? *National Data* McCain DNC Convention 2008 Super RNC Tuesday Convention 50 49 49 49 48 48 49 48 48

47 47 46 47 46 45 44 43 43

Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08

Net +7 -1 +1 -3 +1 +2 +4 +6 +5 Difference

*Note: Data represents two-way vote from Democracy Corps surveys conducted Page 11 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner over the last year and a half. SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Rise in support for Obama in battleground states

Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Obama John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Mc Cain Nader, for whom would you vote? *Battleground Data*

49 47 46 46 44 43

Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Net +1 +2 +6 Difference

Page 12 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

2000 to 2004 swing in red states – 3 points to Bush

2000 – 2004 Swing Red States Total -3 Alabama -11 Tennessee -10 Louisiana -7 West Virginia -7 Arizona -5 Georgia -5 Indiana -5 Utah -5 Kentucky -4 Nebraska -4 Mississippi -2 Texas -2 Kansas -2 South Carolina -1 Virginia -1 North Dakota 0 Oklahoma 0 South Dakota 0 Idaho 1 North Carolina 1 Wyoming 1 Colorado 4 Montana 5 Alaska 6 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

2000 to 2004 swing in blue states – 4 points to Bush

2000 – 2004 Swing

Blue States Total -4 Hawaii -10 New Jersey -9 Rhode Island -9 Connecticut -8 New York -7 Delaware -6 Maryland -4 Massachusetts -2 California -1 Illinois -1 DC 4 Vermont 10 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

2000 to 2004 swing in battleground states: ½ point to Bush

2000 – 2004 Swing Swing State Total -1 Maine +4 Oregon +4 Nevada +2 New Hampshire +2 Ohio +2 Washington +2 Minnesota +1 Wisconsin +1 New Mexico -1 Iowa -2 Michigan -2 Pennsylvania -2 Arkansas -4 Missouri -4 Florida -5 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Party is consolidated, battle for independents nationwide

Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? *National Data*

Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr

+77 -4 -79

87 87

45 41

4 10 10 2 8 1 2 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans Page 16 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Party is consolidated, battle for independents in the battleground

Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr

+80 +1 -77

88 86

42 41

8 4 8 1 1 3 9 2 1

Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans Page 17 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Battleground: Democrats consolidating after lengthy primary battle

Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr

+89 +75 -70

90 85 81

8 332 1 11 32 8 10 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Liberal Democrats Moderate/Conservative Clinton Primary Democrats Supporters SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Rise in Obama’s margin within battleground groups

September Battleground August Battleground Shift 7 Total 2 +5

94 African American +20 74 8 +20 White Younger Men -12

1 White Post High School +19 -18

11 White Younger Non College +19 -8

2 White Non South Rural +17 -15 -5 White Non College Men +15 -20

-55 White Devout Evengelicals +14 -69

95 70 45 20 5 30 55 80 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Groups with smaller convention bounce

September Battleground August Battleground Shift 7 Total +5 2

31 Moderate +10 21

15 White Mainline +8 Protestant 7

-8 White Men +7 -15

Mod/Cons 75 +6 Democrats 69

4 Married Women +6 -2

95 70 45 20 5 30 55 80 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Battleground groups with NO convention bounce

September Battleground August Battleground Shift

7 +5 Total 2

-3 White Non College +3 Women -6

9 Light Red States +3 6

-7 White HS or Less +1 -8

-14 Married Men +1 -15

95 70 45 20 5 30 55 80 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Groups with NO convention bounce

September Battleground August Battleground Shift

7 Total +5 2

White Older Non -16 +1 College -17

1 Independents +0 1

13 White 18-29 +0 13

-24 White Deep South -1 -23

95 70 45 20 5 30 55 80 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Obama’s margin falters with some battleground groups

September Battleground August Battleground Shift

7 Total +5 2

-8 White Catholic -14 6

13 White Unmarried Women -12 25

6 Independent Women -9 15

8 White College Women -8 16

-3 White College Grad -7 4

-16 White Seniors -7 -9

95 70 45 20 5 30 55 80 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Obama’s margin falters with some battleground groups (cont.)

September Battleground August Battleground Shift

7 +5 Total 2

9 White Union HH -7 16

-22 White Older Men -6 -16

-13 White College Men -5 -8

Conservative -86 -4 Republican -82

White Older -3 -4 Women 1

95 70 45 20 5 30 55 80 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

The Unmarried Women Vote Over Time

Republican Democrat 63 62 57 62 50 53 49 42 31 28 37 32

Nov-84 Nov-88 Nov-92 Nov-96 Nov-00 Nov-04

*Note: From exit poll data. SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Significantly Less Support Among Younger Married Women

Now thinking about the presidential election in November. If the election for president were held today and the candidates were: Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr and Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?

Barack Obama John McCain

80 +58 75 60 -2

40 47 49

20 17 0 Unmarried under 50 Married under 50 *Note: From September ’08 WVWVAF Women’s Survey SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Problem Among White Seniors and Older Unmarried Women

Barack Obama 80 Democrat/Lean Democrat

-9 -11 -11 60 57 50 53 40 46 41 42

0 White Women, Over 64 White Unmarried Women, White Unmarried Women, over 50 over 64

*Note: From September ’08 WVWVAF Women’s Survey SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Nationally: Voter Choice Scales: parallel worlds

Obama Not Obama 41 35

5 10 3 223

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

McCain Not McCain 44

5 9 2 223

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

Page 28 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

In Battleground: Voter Choice Scales: McCain has more out of reach

Obama Not Obama 37 38

5 9 3 2 4 3

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

45 McCain Not McCain

4 5 9 223

Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

Page 29 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

The Candidates

Page 30 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Candidate thermometers

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

National Cool Warm Net Barack Obama 37 49 +12

Joe Biden 31 40 +9 John McCain 37 48 +11 Sarah Palin 28 34 +6

Battleground Barack Obama 37 50 +13 Joe Biden 32 39 +7 John McCain 40 45 +5

Sarah Palin 28 33 +5

60 40 20 0 20 40 60 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Obama favorability steadily improving nationally

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, Cool Warm UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. *National Data* New Hampshire Primary 49 47 47 46 46 44 43 44 4142 39 38 38 38 37 42 42 34 39 37 38 37 37 36 36 36 35 33

28 25 21 17

Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08

Net +17 +17 +14 +10 +2 +1 +8 +6 +6 +12 +7+2 +2 +8 +10 +12 Difference

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year and a half. Page 32 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Obama favorability rising in battleground

44 45

41 38 37

Jul-08 Aug-08

Net +6 +4 +13 Difference

Page 33 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

John McCain: rise in both warm and cool feelings

New 48 Hampshire Primary 44 43 42 42 42 43 43 42 39 40 40 36 40 36 37 37 37 34 34 33 27 31 27 24 24

Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08

Net +18 +15 +20 +5 +12 +6 +8 +7 +6 0 +5 +10 +11 Difference

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last year and a half. Page 34 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

McCain favorability in battleground unchanged

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE Cool Warm feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. *Battleground Data*

45 44 43

40 38

Jul-08 Aug-08

Net +11 +5 +5 Difference

Page 35 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Thermometer Regressions: All About Obama

Thermometers That Drive the Vote: Standardized Odds Ratio

•Obama Thermometer 7.46

•McCain Thermometer 4.61

•Party ID 3.79

•Palin Thermometer 1.91

Page 36 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

More comfortable with Obama as President in battleground

On a scale of zero to ten, how comfortable would you feel with Barack Obama/a Democrat as your president? A ten would mean you feel very comfortable. A zero would mean you feel not at all comfortable. *Battleground Data*

On a scale of zero to ten, how comfortable would you feel with John McCain/a Republican as your president? A ten would mean you feel very comfortable. A zero would mean you feel not at all comfortable. *Battleground Data*

Very comfortable (10) Comfortable (6-10)

58 54 48 46

26 23 18

Barack Obama Democrat John McCain Republican

Page 37 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Independents far more comfortable with McCain than Republican

Very comfortable (10) Comfortable (6-10)

55 52 51 41

26 20 20 17

Barack Obama Democrat John McCain Republican

Page 38 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Barack Obama

Page 39 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Obama attributes nationally

Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. *National Data* Not well at all Not too well Very well Well Strong leader 40 21 34 58

Means what he says and says what he means 39 22 32 58

Will keep America strong 44 25 30 55

Positive Has what it takes to be president 44 25 34 54

Negative Too willing to withdraw from Iraq 36 19 39 61

Will raise my taxes 41 22 36 54

Too liberal 47 25 29 50

Promises things that sound good but he won't be able to get them done 47 27 33 49

Lacks experience necessary to be POTUS 48 25 33 49

Just too many questions to take chance on him as POTUS 50 32 29 47

Will put interests of black Americans ahead of others 57 32 18 34 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Positive Obama attributes – battleground

Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. *Battleground Data* Not well at all Not too well Very well Well

Has what it takes to be President Shift

September 42 24 31 56 +5 July 46 26 23 51

Will keep America strong

September 42 22 32 56 +3 July 44 27 23 53

Strong Leader

September 40 20 35 58 +0 July 39 25 28 58 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Negative Obama attributes – battleground

Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. *Battleground Data* Not well at all Not too well Very well Well Too many questions to take a chance Shift September 53 32 28 43 +5 July 48 25 31 48

Too willing to withdraw from Iraq

September 40 20 34 57 +3 July 37 17 38 60

Too Liberal

September 45 22 30 50 +1 July 44 20 26 51

Will put interests of blacks ahead of others

September 60 35 18 34 -3 July 61 33 17 31 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Fear that Obama will raise taxes

Not well at all Not too well Very well Well

Will raise my taxes 44 23 33 51

Promises things that sound good but he 27 29 won't be able to get 48 48 them done

Lacks experience necessary to be 50 28 31 47 President SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Comparing leadership qualities

Page 44 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Obama seen more as strong leader, restoring respect for America

Now I would like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these terms, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? *Battleground Data*

McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama much better Obama somewhat better

Strong Leader Advantage

September 46 34 29 47 +1

August 50 34 24 40 -10

Saying what people want to hear

September 42 26 30 47 -5

August 34 20 32 50 -16

Restoring respect for America

September 42 29 38 51 +9

August 43 26 32 47 +4

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Little movement on ability to work across party lines, bring change

Now I would like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these terms, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? *Battleground Data*

McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama much better Obama somewhat better

Will work across party lines Advantage

September 43 28 29 45 +2

August 42 24 24 43 +1

Bringing the right kind of change

September 39 24 43 56 +17

August 36 20 35 52 +16

Being on your side

September 41 24 38 51 +10

August 40 22 31 50 +10

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 McCain now seen as more independent than Obama

Now I would like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these terms, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? *Battleground Data*

McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama much better Obama somewhat better Too negative in his campaign Advantage

September 51 30 14 26 +25 August 52 29 12 25 +27

Independent September 47 28 23 42 -5 August 40 19 25 46 +6 Shares your values

46 31 36 47 +1

Is honest and trustworthy

43 29 32 44 +1

75 50 25 0 25 50 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Comparing the candidates on the issues

Page 48 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Better Job on the economy – battleground

Now I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or John McCain would do a better job with this issue. *Battleground Data*

Obama Mc Cain 54

48 43

41 38

Jul-08 Aug-08

Net +11 +7 +16 Difference

Page 49 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Better Job on Iraq – battleground

Now I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or John McCain would do a better job with this issue. *Battleground Data*

Obama Mc Cain 60

46 42

Jul-08 Aug-08

Net -26 -11 -2 Difference

Page 50 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Obama and Democrats better on domestic issues - battleground

Now I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or John McCain would do a better job with this issue. *Battleground Data*

McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama much better Obama somewhat better Margin Raising Middle Class Living Standards 32 18 42 58 +26

The Economy September 38 22 35 54 +16 August 41 23 28 48 +7

Standing up to powerful special interests 37 24 34 51 +14 Handling our energy crisis September 40 23 35 49 +9 August 42 27 24 44 +2

Making America independent of foreign oil 41 27 33 48 +7

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Obama down on taxes, immigration, national security in the battleground

Now I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or John McCain would do a better job with this issue. *Battleground Data*

McCain much better McCain somewhat better Obama much better Obama somewhat better Margin Gas Prices 37 22 26 44 +7

Taxes September 44 26 25 44 0 August 44 29 23 43 -1

The situation in Iraq September 48 34 32 46 -2 August 53 42 25 42 -11

The problem of illegal immigration 44 22 19 34 -10 National Security September 55 41 23 36 -19 July 59 42 17 30 -29

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Independents OK on interests and economy but national security serious

Now I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think Barack Obama or John McCain would do a better job with this issue. *Battleground Data*

McCain better Obama better Margin Standing up to special interests 27 49 +22

The Economy

32 50 +18

Taxes

44 44 0

Situation in Iraq

48 38 -10

National Security

56 33 -23

65 40 15 10 35 60 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

The Convention

Page 54 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

More following Democratic convention nationally after one night

As you may know, the Democrat Party/Republican Party held its convention in Denver last week/Minneapolis this week. How closely did you follow the Democratic/Republican convention? Would you say you followed it very closely, somewhat closely, a little closely, or not at all? *National Data*

Followed Democrats very closely Followed Democrats somewhat closely Followed Republicans very closely Followed Republicans somewhat closely

+9 66 57

Followed Democratic Convention Followed Republican Convention SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Impact of conventions

And has what you saw or heard about the Democratic/Republican convention made you more or less likely to support Barack Obama/John McCain for president? *National Data*

Much more likely Somewhat more likley Much less likely Somewhat less likely

+10 -3

48 40 38 37

23 25 21

More likely Less likely More likely Less likely

Barack Obama John McCain SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Over two thirds of electorate watched Obama’s speech

And did you watch Barack Obama’s speech at the Democratic convention? *National Data*

Yes, watched it No, did not watch it

+35

Yes No SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Vice presidential selection

Page 58 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Named presidential with vice president across nation

Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama and Joe Biden (total) John McCain and Sarah Palin (total) Ralph Nader (total) Bob Barr (total)

+4 +6

50 50 46 44

1 2 1 2

Obama/ McCain/ Nader Barr Obama/ McCain/ Nader Barr Biden Palin Biden Palin National Battleground SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Support for Obama and McCain with respective VP picks made

As you may know, Senator Barack Obama/John McCain selected Delaware Senator Joe Biden/Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate. Does this make you more or less likely to support Barack Obama/John McCain for president? *National Data* Much more likely Somewhat more likley Much less likely Somewhat less likely

+13 +3 49 45 42 36

29 30 27 20

More likely Less likely More likely Less likely Barack Obama John McCain SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Senator Biden’s biography

Now let me read you a statement about Delaware Senator Joe Biden. Does Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate make you more or less likely to support him for president? *National Data*

Somewhat more likely Senator Biden Biography Much more likely

Joe Biden has over 30 years of experience in the Senate. The chairman of the Foreign Relations 57 Committee, Biden is one of the Senate's leading experts on foreign policy. He has worked to bring our troops home without leaving chaos behind in Iraq and to ensure our veterans have top-notch medical treatment. Raised in a strong Catholic family in Scranton, Pennsylvania, 34 Biden has never forgotten his middle class roots. When his wife was killed in a car accident just after he was elected, Biden vowed to take the train home to Delaware every night to be with his sons, a practice he continues Total more likely to this day.

Page 61 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Governor Palin’s biography

Somewhat more likely Governor Palin Biography Much more likely

Just 44 years old, Palin is the first woman to be nominated by the Republican party for vice president. She has been married to Todd - a union worker, for 20 51 years and they have 5 children together. She was just a 'hockey mom' in Alaska and two years ago she became the first ever woman governor of the state by taking on 36 and defeating a corrupt incumbent from her own party. Palin has taken on pork barrel spending, passed sweeping new ethics legislation and worked to increase our domestic production of energy to break our dependence on foreign oil. Sarah Palin is pro-life and a Total more likely lifetime member of the NRA.

Page 62 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Greater Biden advantage after biography

As you may know, Senator Barack Obama selected Delaware Senator Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate. Does this make you more or less likely to support Barack Obama for president? *Battleground Data*

Much more likely Somewhat more likley Much less likely Somewhat less likely

+13 +27

57 49

36 30 34 27 20 16

More likely Less likely More likely Less likely

Without Bio With Bio SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Little-known Palin improves after biography

As you may know, Senator John McCain selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate. Does this make you more or less likely to support John McCain for president? *Battleground Data*

Much more likely Somewhat more likley Much less likely Somewhat less likely

+3 +10

51 45 42 41

36 29 30 29

More likely Less likely More likely Less likely

Without Bio With Bio SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

Top doubts among independents on Palin

Now I'm going to read you a list of doubts that some say they have about John McCain’s vice presidential running mate – Sarah Palin. Does that statement, if accurate, raise very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about John McCain’s vice presidential running mate – Sarah Palin. *Battleground Data*

Serious doubts Serious doubts Picked to appeal to Very serious doubts No National Very serious doubts women Experience 48 With America facing the 45 threat of terrorism, Before becoming McCain said he would governor a year and a pick somebody ready to half ago, Palin was part be president. But Palin time mayor of a town of 27 has no foreign policy only six thousand 21 experience and McCain people. She has no met her only once before experience on the picking her. He only national scene or with chose her to appeal to foreign policy. Total serious women voters. Total serious doubts doubts SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008

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