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The Nation and Battleground States: Post-Denver and Palin Choice

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SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 September 8, 2008 The nation and battleground states: post-Denver and Palin choice National survey of 1,000 likely voters Presidential battleground states survey of 1,000 likely voters SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Political Landscape Page 2 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 ‘Wrong Direction’ nationwide Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the Right direction Wrong direction wrong track? *National Data* Petraeus Report 78 78 Iraq surge 75 Election 71 72 73 2006 70 Katrina 69 69 70 68 67 66 6666 66 62 64 62 63 62 60 61 58 68 56 56 63 52 55 51 58 55 37 37 42 41 35 34 37 34 24 24 34 31 30 31 28 28 25 27 28 25 25 25 25 17 16 23 23 22 2322 23 21 15 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Net -9 -11 -22 -18 -19 -24 -31 -18 -25 -42 -36 -31 -31 -45 -24 -41-35 -43-41-48-47-44 -35-47-50-41-45-44 -52-58 -63 -62 -46 Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last couple years. Page 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Republicans feeling significantly better about direction of the country Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? *National Data* Wrong Right Shift September 92 5 Democrats -2 July 92 7 September 74 19 Independents +8 July 83 11 September 40 50 Republicans +17 July 56 33 *Note: Net shift displays the difference between the last two waves 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Bush job approval low nationwide Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? *National Data* Approve Disapprove Petraeus Report Iraq surge 64 65 65 Election 2006 62 Katrina 605960 59 60 58 59 5859 57 5757 57 61 56 56 53 60 53 54 58 51 52 56 56 49 49 52 4651 50 4849 46 43 46 46 45 45 40 42 42 37 38 38 38 40 40 39 35 38 38 34 37 3737 36 36 35 35 33 31 31 29 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Net +6 +4 0 -7 -8 -5 -14-4 -6 -17-16 -21 -12 -10 -17 -21-17-19-21-22-25-22-24-19-24-24-20-18-25-33 -36 -29 Difference -34 -27 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the past several years. Page 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Nationally, Bush approval rating increases Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president? *National Data* Disapprove Approve Shift September 92 6 Democrats +3 July 95 3 September 60 31 Independents +3 July 64 28 September 25 69 Republicans +6 July 29 63 *Note: Net shift displays the difference between the last two waves 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 But Bush favorability rating remains low in battleground Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY Cool Warm COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. *Battleground Data* 58 55 56 35 33 32 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Net -20 -23 -26 Difference Page 7 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Democratic thermometer stable but Republicans move up Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, Democratic Party UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. *National Data* Republican Party Iraq Petraeus Election Surge Katrina 2006 Report 54 54 54 54 2008 53 53 53 52 53 52 52 52 51 51 51 53 50 50 50 51 51 51 52 49 49 51 49 49 49 49 50 47 48 5050 4947 48 48 47 46 46 47 47 47 46 46 46 44 44 45 45 45 45 44 43 43 43 43 43 42 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Dec-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Net -3 -1 -2 +1 +1 -4 -4 -2 +3 +2 +3 +4 0 +2 +3 +11+9 +7 +4 +6 +4 +3+5+6+8+7+6 +4 Difference *Note: Data represents the MEAN ratings from Democracy Corps surveys conducted Page 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner over the past four years. SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Democratic House vote flat at 50 percent, but GOP up Thinking about the election for Congress in 2008, if the election for U.S. Congress Democratic candidate were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate*? *National Data* Republican candidate New 2008 Congress 54 52 53 53 53 52 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 50 50 53 50 50 50 45 43 43 4343 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 41 41 41 40 40 40 39 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Net +10+12 +8 +14 +8 +8 +11 +12 +9 +10 +9 +7 +11 +10 +13 +12 +10 +8 +8 +5 Difference *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the past year and a half. Candidates names inserted for candidates Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 The Presidential Election Page 10 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Obama emerges with real national lead Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Obama John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? *National Data* McCain DNC Convention 2008 Super RNC Tuesday Convention 50 49 49 49 48 48 49 48 48 47 47 46 47 46 45 44 43 43 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Net +7 -1 +1 -3 +1 +2 +4 +6 +5 Difference *Note: Data represents two-way vote from Democracy Corps surveys conducted Page 11 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner over the last year and a half. SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Rise in support for Obama in battleground states Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Obama John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Mc Cain Nader, for whom would you vote? *Battleground Data* 49 47 46 46 44 43 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Net +1 +2 +6 Difference Page 12 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 2000 to 2004 swing in red states – 3 points to Bush 2000 – 2004 Swing Red States Total -3 Alabama -11 Tennessee -10 Louisiana -7 West Virginia -7 Arizona -5 Georgia -5 Indiana -5 Utah -5 Kentucky -4 Nebraska -4 Mississippi -2 Texas -2 Kansas -2 South Carolina -1 Virginia -1 North Dakota 0 Oklahoma 0 South Dakota 0 Idaho 1 North Carolina 1 Wyoming 1 Colorado 4 Montana 5 Alaska 6 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 2000 to 2004 swing in blue states – 4 points to Bush 2000 – 2004 Swing Blue States Total -4 Hawaii -10 New Jersey -9 Rhode Island -9 Connecticut -8 New York -7 Delaware -6 Maryland -4 Massachusetts -2 California -1 Illinois -1 DC 4 Vermont 10 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 2000 to 2004 swing in battleground states: ½ point to Bush 2000 – 2004 Swing Swing State Total -1 Maine +4 Oregon +4 Nevada +2 New Hampshire +2 Ohio +2 Washington +2 Minnesota +1 Wisconsin +1 New Mexico -1 Iowa -2 Michigan -2 Pennsylvania -2 Arkansas -4 Missouri -4 Florida -5 SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Party is consolidated, battle for independents nationwide Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? *National Data* Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr +77 -4 -79 87 87 45 41 4 10 10 2 8 1 2 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans Page 16 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Party is consolidated, battle for independents in the battleground Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? *Battleground Data* Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr +80 +1 -77 88 86 42 41 8 4 8 1 1 3 9 2 1 Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans Page 17 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner SeptemberSeptember 10,10, 20082008 Battleground: Democrats consolidating after lengthy primary battle Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names.
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