National Public Radio the Campaign on the Eve of the Conventions

March 13, 2006

August 20 , 2008 National Public Radio The Campaign on the Eve of the Conventions

August 21, 2008 1,124 Likely Voters Presidential Battleground States in the presidential battleground: blue and red states

Total State List BLUE STATES RED STATES Alaska Deep Blue Deep Red Colorado Minnesota Alaska Florida Wisconsin Georgia Georgia Indiana Indiana Light Blue Montana Iowa Michigan North Carolina Michigan New Hampshire North Dakota Missouri Pennsylvania Light Red Minnesota Montana Colorado Nevada Florida New Hampshire Iowa Missouri New Mexico Nevada North Carolina New Mexico North Dakota Ohio Ohio Virginia Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin

National Public Radio, August 2008 Change dominates battleground too

National Public Radio, August 2008 Presidential battleground voters pessimistic about direction of nation

Generally speaking, do you think things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

-56 Right Direction Wrong Track

Right Direction Wrong Track National Public Radio, August 2008 Similar levels of interest by candidate choice

As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this Very Interested (10) year’s elections.

73 74 74

Total Obama Voters McCain Voters

National Public Radio, August 2008 Similar levels of interest by party

As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten Very Interested (10) meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year’s elections.

75 76 67

Democrats Independents Republicans

National Public Radio, August 2008 But Democrats more enthusiastic about the election

In thinking about the presidential election that will be held this November, More Enthusiastic compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual or less enthusiastic? Less Enthusiastic

+52 +13 +16

51 47

34 35

More Less Enthusiastic More Less Enthusiastic More Less Enthusiastic Enthusiastic Enthusiastic Enthusiastic DemocratsIndependents Republicans

National Public Radio, August 2008 Approval of Bush low…

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove

-25

Approve Disapprove

National Public Radio, August 2008 …Even in Deep Red states

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President?

Approve Disapprove

-25 -14

60 55

41 35

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Total Sample Deep Red States*

National Public Radio, August 2008 *Note: These states are Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota. The Race

National Public Radio, August 2008 Match-up very close in presidential battleground states

Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Barack Obama Democrat John Kerry Republican John McCain Lean John McCain Republican George Bush Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr

+1 -5

46 45 51 46 44 42

2 1

Obama McCain Nader Barr Kerry Bush Total Voters 2004 Vote* National Public Radio, August 2008 *Note: Represents the actual 2004 vote in these presidential battleground states. Obama leading in blue states, slightly ahead in light red states

If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Obama Lean Obama McCain Lean McCain Nader Lean Nader Barr Lean Barr +7 +9 49 50 42 41 47 44 40 34 5 0 1 0

Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Deep Blue States Light Blue States -12 +3 53 46 41 43 49 40 44 41

0 2 2 1

Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Deep Red States Light Red States National Public Radio, August 2008 McCain holds slight leads among independents

If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Lean Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Libertarian Bob Barr

+76 -3 -81 85 88

81 84

40 43 38 39

9 7 1 0 3 3 1 1

Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans

National Public Radio, August 2008 Obama holding Democratic states, tied in Bush states

If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Obama Republican John McCain Lean McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Bob Barr +9 +6 50 48 41 42 46 45 37 38

3 0 3 0

Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr States won by Kerry 2004 States won by Gore 2000

-2 -2 45 47 45 47 43 44 43 44

111 1

Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr States won by Bush 2004 States won by Bush 2000 National Public Radio, August 2008 Importance of vice presidential picks

How important will Senator Barack Obama’s vice presidential pick be to your decision whether or not to support his candidacy? Will it be very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?

How important will Senator John McCain’s vice presidential pick be to your decision whether or not to support his candidacy? Will it be very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all? Very important Somewhat important Not at all important Not very important

+5 -4 52 52 47 48

33 34 26 23

Important Not Important Important Not Important Obama’s Choice McCain’s Choice

National Public Radio, August 2008 The candidates and campaigns

National Public Radio, August 2008 The personal qualities of the candidates

Now, I’d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these terms, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net

Bringing right kind of change 37 21 36 52 +15

Being on your side 41 24 31 49 +8

Restoring respect for America in the world 43 27 32 47 +4

Independent 42 21 26 46 +4

Will work across party lines 43 24 23 42 -1

Has what it takes to be president 51 36 25 40 -11

Positive Strong leader 50 34 23 40 -10

Negative Too risky 38 24 34 51 +13

Saying what people want to hear, not what he believes in 34 20 34 50 +16

Out of touch 44 23 22 39 -5

National Public Radio, August 2008 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 Regression analysis: personal characteristics as vote predictors

Characteristics that drive the vote: Odds Ratio • On your side 1.94 • Has what it takes to be president 1.89 • Strong leader 1.58 • Bring the right kind of change 1.51 • Restore respect for America 1.40 • Will work across party lines 1.32 • Too risky .79

National Public Radio, August 2008 Page 18 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner The candidates and the issues

Now, I’d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these phrases, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net

Has the better approach to the economy 42 23 29 47 +5

Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis and reduce 42 28 27 45 +3 gas prices

Has the better approach on taxes 45 32 25 43 -2

Has the better approach to handle the situation in Iraq 52 42 25 42 -10

Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 45 29 23 42 -3

Has the better approach to handle the situation in 54 40 22 37 -17 Afghanistan

80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 National Public Radio, August 2008 Regression analysis: issues as vote predictors

Issues that drive the vote: Odds Ratio • Has the better approach to the economy 1.56 • Has the better approach to handle the situation 1.55 in Afghanistan • Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 1.39 • Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 1.33 and reduce gas prices • Has the better approach on taxes 1.13 • Has the better approach to handle the situation in Iraq 1.46

National Public Radio, August 2008 Page 20 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Character of the two candidates

Seeing more on television about him 18 8 39 60 +42

Hearing or receiving more information about his 29 13 28 54 +25 campaign

Has flip-flopped on the issues 27 14 26 49 +22

Seeing more ads from his campaign 34 14 22 44 +10

Too negative in his campaign 51 28 14 27 -24

75 50 25 0 25 50 75

National Public Radio, August 2008 Campaign Advertising

National Public Radio, August 2008 Many have seen campaign ads

Now let me ask you something a little bit different. Have you seen any advertisements from the campaign of Barack Obama/John McCain over the last Yes No couple of weeks? +56 +55

78 77

22 22

Obama Campaign Ads McCain Campaign Ads National Public Radio, August 2008 Many have seen ads that are negative about Barack Obama

Of those ads that you have seen on television from either John McCain or Barack Obama, please tell me, which of the following phrases describes the time of ads you have seen. You may choose as many of the following phrases as you feel apply.

Ads that are negative about Barack Obama 65

Ads that are positive about Barack Obama 64

Ads that are positive about John McCain 60

Ads that compare the candidates but are critical of Barack Obama 59

Ads that are negative about John McCain 48

Ads that compare the candidates but are critical of John McCain 46

0255075 National Public Radio, August 2008 *Note: Asked of those who responded that they have seen ads about one or both of the candidates. Advertisements: open-ended responses Group And now, of those ads that you have seen, what specifically do you recall seeing? Net Celebrity 17 Obama Negatives Inexperience 8 28 Raise taxes 4

McCain negative/critical of Obama 15 Campaign Tone Both negative/distorting truth/misleading 7 25 Obama negative/critical of McCain 5

Energy policy/alt. energy 10

Econ/plan for economy 5 General Issues Taxes/raising/cutting taxes 4 20 War/future war plan 4

Gas/fuel costs, handling prices 4

Hopeful/upbeat/intelligent 7 Obama Positives 13 Will bring change 6

Positive: Patriotism/military service/POW 5 McCain Positive: Experienced 2 10 Negative: Same as Bush 2 *Note: Asked of those responding they have seen ads. Group National Public Radio, August 2008 net represents total who recalled ads of this category including 01020 some not listed on the chart because of small incidences. Ad effect varies by partisanship, independents split Overall, of the ads you’ve seen, are they leading you more toward supporting Obama McCain Barack Obama or more toward supporting John McCain?

+68 -2 -59

76 69

30 32

8 10

More toward More toward More toward More toward More toward More toward supporting supporting supporting supporting supporting supporting Obama McCain Obama McCain Obama McCain Democrats Independents Republicans

National Public Radio, August 2008 *Note: Asked of those who responded that they have seen ads about one or both of the candidates. Obama ahead in states where both campaigns have ads

Democrat Barack Obama Lean Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Lean Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Libertarian Bob Barr

49 42 46 39

3 1

Obama McCain Nader Barr

National Public Radio, August 2008 New and old media

National Public Radio, August 2008 Traditional mediums from which people receive campaign information

Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year’s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. ReceivedPercent Yesinformation through watching news Received information through watching news 87 stories on television Received information through watching 79 advertisements on television Received information through hearing news 66 stories on the radio Received information through hearing 54 advertisements on the radio Received printed materials in the mail from 43 campaigns or another political organization Received phone calls from the campaigns or 36 other political organizations Spoken with someone who came to your door 8 from campaign or political org

0 153045607590

National Public Radio, August 2008 Electronic ways that people receive campaign information

Visited a campaign or candidate-sponsored website 26

Received "chain emails" about Barack Obama 24

Watched a campaign commercial on-line 22

Watched viral videos online from organizations other 18 than the campaigns or new outlets.

Received e-mails from campaigns or organizations 17

Visited a political blog online 15

Received "chain emails" about John McCain 8

Received campaign or candidate information on your 8 cell phone or personal digital assistant

National Public Radio, August 2008 01530 Online methods by age group

Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year’s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. Percent Yes Under 40 40 Visited a campaign or candidate 40-64 22 sponsored website Seniors 13 Under 40 36 Received “chain mails” about 40-64 20 Barack Obama Seniors 16 Under 40 31 Watched a campaign commercial 40-64 20 online Seniors 13 Under 40 28 Watched a viral video online from org 40-64 16 other than campaign or news outlet Seniors 10 Under 40 20 Visited a political blog online 40-64 16 Seniors 6 Received campaign or candidate Under 40 4 information on your cell phone or 40-64 9 personal digital assistant Seniors 11 National Public Radio, August 2008 0153045 www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California London, UK 10 G Street NE, 50 California Street, 405 Carrington House, Suite 500 Suite 1500 6 Hertford Street Washington, DC 20002 San Francisco, CA 94111 London, UK W1J 7SU

Ph: +1 202 478 8300 Ph: +1 415 277 5403 Ph: +44 (0) 207 499 5204 Fax: +1 202 478 8301 Fax: +1 415 358 9599 Fax: +44 (0) 207 499 5284 National Public Radio, August 2008