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Integrated Decision-Support Framework for Sustainable Fleet Implementation

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Integrated Decision-Support Framework for Sustainable Fleet Implementation Some pages of this thesis may have been removed for copyright restrictions. If you have discovered material in Aston Research Explorer which is unlawful e.g. breaches copyright, (either yours or that of a third party) or any other law, including but not limited to those relating to patent, trademark, confidentiality, data protection, obscenity, defamation, libel, then please read our Takedown policy and contact the service immediately ([email protected]) INTEGRATED DECISION-SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE FLEET IMPLEMENTATION HANNI BINTI SALEHAN Doctor of Philosophy ASTON UNIVERSITY October 2018 © Hanni Binti Salehan, 2018 Hanni Binti Salehan asserts her moral right to be identified as the author of this thesis This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with its author and that no quotation from the thesis and no information derived from it may be published without appropriate permission or acknowledgement. Aston University Hanni Binti Salehan Doctor of Philosophy October 2018 Abstract Issues regarding fossil fuel depletion, climate change and air pollution associated with motorised urban transportation have motivated intensive research to find cleaner, greener, and energy-efficient alternative fuels. Alternative fuel vehicles have a pivotal role in moving towards a sustainable future, with many already deployed as public transport fleet. Unlike private vehicles, the process of evaluating and selecting the appropriate fuel technology for the taxi fleet, for instance, can be demanding due to the involvement of stakeholders with different, often conflicting objectives. While many life cycle models have been developed as decision-support tools for evaluating vehicle technologies and fuel pathways based on multiple criteria, the different perspectives of fleet operators, policymakers and vehicle manufacturers may create a barrier towards the adoption of eco-friendly low carbon fleet. At present, the search for one optimal solution that performs the best in all aspects is difficult to achieve in practice. Therefore, there is a need for an integrated tool that can align the different priorities of economic, environmental and social perspectives of decision makers. This research aims to develop a computer-based framework that can be used as a shared justification tool to support multi-stakeholder decision making. The main contribution is the implementation and applicability testing of the framework via a probabilistic life cycle analysis with satisficing model. The model was initially tested and evaluated by representative third-party users from the transport industry. When demonstrated in an illustrative taxi case study, results from the life cycle analysis show constant compensation and trade-offs between the criteria. Subsequently, this thesis provides an example of how the satisficing choice model seeks a satisfactory solution that adequately meets the multiple objectives of decision makers. Also, the research provides insights for other research and industry efforts in developing tools to support decision making towards sustainable development practices. Keywords: Alternative fuel, decision-support, satisficing choice model, life cycle, taxi fleet 2 Acknowledgement First, praise be to Allah (the Most Gracious) for the endless blessings bestowed upon me, for giving me the courage and strength to keep going; otherwise this thesis would not have been possible. I also wish to express my sincere gratitude to my academic supervisors, Dr Brian Price and Dr Lucy Rackliff, for the guidance, inspiring ideas and insightful comments that have provided sustained support over the course of this PhD study. Not to forget, both my examiners, Prof Rui Chen and Dr Kenneth Park for their valuable feedback and an invaluable contribution to the research. I would like to acknowledge the Malaysian Government, in particular to Majlis Amanah Rakyat (MARA) for the financial support. It would have been impossible for me to pursue this PhD study without it. Above all, I would like to thank my family and friends back in Malaysia for their love and encouragement. A special appreciation goes to my beloved husband, Haikal for all his sacrifices; thank you for your understanding and patience throughout this memorable journey. To my sons, Ra’if and Reyaz, this is for you both. Last but not least, to my colleagues at the Engineering Systems & Management Department and those who have contributed to this research in any way possible, thank you from the bottom of my heart. I am forever grateful. 3 List of Contents ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................ 4 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... 12 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................ 14 THESIS OUTLINE........................................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 21 1.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 21 1.2. TRANSPORT AND SUSTAINABILITY ........................................................................ 21 1.2.1. Urbanisation and sustainable development ................................................ 21 1.2.2. Risks and implications for the transport sector ........................................... 24 1.2.3. Towards sustainable practices in the transportation sector ........................ 26 1.2.4. The use of alternative fuels in public transport fleets .................................. 27 1.3 RESEARCH MOTIVATION AND PROBLEM STATEMENT .............................................. 29 1.4 RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES.......................................................................... 33 1.5 SCOPE OF RESEARCH AND EXPECTED OUTCOMES ................................................. 34 1.6 RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE .................................................................................... 35 1.7 RESEARCH PROCESS IN BRIEF ............................................................................. 37 1.8 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 38 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 39 2.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 39 2.2 A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF AFV TECHNOLOGIES FOR ROAD TRANSPORTATION .............. 39 2.3 THE EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING OF AFV TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLEET OPERATIONS ................................................................................................................. 45 4 2.4 LIFE CYCLE THINKING CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGY CHOICES ....................................................................................................................... 48 2.4.1 An introduction to life cycle methods .......................................................... 49 2.4.2 Life cycle sustainability assessment ........................................................... 50 2.5 EVALUATING AFV TECHNOLOGIES FROM A LIFE CYCLE AND TBL PERSPECTIVES ..... 57 2.6 DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AFV TECHNOLOGIES LCA .................................... 66 2.7 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 68 CHAPTER 3: FRAMEWORK OF THE DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL ............................. 70 3.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 70 3.2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................. 70 3.2.1 Triple-bottom-line oriented LCCA ............................................................... 71 3.2.2 Probabilistic simulation for dealing with uncertainties ................................. 72 3.2.3 Application of Satisficing Theory ................................................................ 76 3.3 WORKING PROCEDURES OF THE DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL .................................... 79 3.3.1 Goal and Scope Definition .......................................................................... 81 3.3.2 Assessment and Quantifying Stage ........................................................... 83 3.3.2.1 Life cycle economic costs ....................................................................... 84 3.3.2.2 Life cycle environmental and social costs/benefits .................................. 86 3.3.3 Results Interpretation ................................................................................. 92 3.4 STRUCTURE OF THE DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL ..................................................... 93 3.5 SUMMARY .........................................................................................................
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