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AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE JOURNAL THE MAGAZINE FOR INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS Denial and Deception __NMIA__________________________ Vol. 32, No. 2, 2015 American THE MAGAZINE FOR INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS Intelligence Journal Vol. 32, No. 2 2015 ISSN 0883-072X NMIA Board of Directors LTG (USA, Ret) James A. Williams, Chairman Col (USAF, Ret) Joseph Keefe, President Mr. Louis Andre, Director Mr. Terrance Ford, Director Col (USAF, Ret) William Arnold, Secretary Ms. Jane Flowers, Director Brig Gen (USAF, Ret) Scott Bethel, Director Col (USAFR, Ret) Michael Grebb, Treasurer Mr. Don Bolser, Director COL (USA, Ret) David Hale, Director CDR (USNR, Ret) Calland Carnes, Chapters Director Ms. Tracy Iseler, Director Col (USAF, Ret) John Clark, Director Ms. Stephanie Leung, Director Lt Gen (USAF, Ret) David Deptula, Director Brad Moss, Esq., Director LtCol James Eden, Director Capt (USNR) Rick Myllenbeck, Director COL (USA, Ret) Jim Edwards, Awards Director Ms. Marcy Steinke, Director Mr. Roland Fabia, Director COL (USA, Ret) Napolean Stewart, Director COL (USA, Ret) Michael Ferguson, Director CDR (USNR) Louis Tucker, Director COL (USA, Ret) Gerald York, Director Editor - COL (USA, Ret) William C. Spracher, Ed.D. Production Manager - Ms. Debra Hamby-Davis LTG (USA, Ret) Harry E. Soyster, Director Emeritus COL (USA, Ret) William Halpin, Director Emeritus LTG (USA, Ret) Patrick M. Hughes, Director Emeritus Dr. Forrest R. Frank, Director Emeritus RADM (USN, Ret) Rose LeVitre, Director Emeritus Mr. Antonio Delgado, Jr., Director Emeritus MG (USA, Ret) Barbara Fast, Director Emeritus The American Intelligence Journal (AIJ) is published by the National Military Intelligence Association (NMIA), a non-profit, non-political, professional association supporting American intelligence professionals and the U.S. Intelligence Community, primarily through educational means. The Board of Directors is headed by Lieutenant General James A. Williams (USA, Ret), and the president of NMIA is Colonel William Arnold (USAF, Ret). NMIA membership includes active duty, retired, former military, and civil service intelligence personnel and U.S. citizens in industry, academia, or other civil pursuits who are interested in being informed on aspects of intelligence. For a membership application, see the back page of this Journal. Authors interested in submitting an article to the Journal are encouraged to send an inquiry – with a short abstract of the text – to the Editor by e-mail at <[email protected]>. Articles and inquiries may also be submitted in hard copy to Editor, c/o NMIA, 256 Morris Creek Road, Cullen, Virginia 23934. Comments, suggestions, and observations on the editorial content of the Journal are also welcomed. Questions concerning subscriptions, advertising, and distribution should be directed to the Production Manager at <[email protected]>. The American Intelligence Journal is published semi-annually. Each issue runs 100-250 pages and is distributed to key govern- ment officials, members of Congress and their staffs, and university professors and libraries, as well as to NMIA members, Journal subscribers, and contributors. Contributors include Intelligence Community leaders and professionals as well as academicians and others with interesting and informative perspectives. Copyright NMIA. Reprint and copying by permission only. American Intelligence Journal Page i Vol 32, No 1 N Accenture M Allied Associates International, Inc. I American Military University A ANSER, Analytic Services, Inc. CACI CGI C Daniel Morgan Academy O Digital Globe R DynCorp International P General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems O General Dynamics Information Technology R Johns Hopkins University Advanced Academic Programs A Kiernan Group Holdings T Leidos E MDA Information Systems, LLC Northrop Grumman Information Systems M PARSONS E Pluribus International Corporation M Riverside Research Institute SOS International, Ltd. B SYTERA, LLC E NMIA gratefully acknowledges the generous support of Daniel R Morgan Academy in Washington, DC. DMA has sponsored the publication of this Journal, including distribution assistance for S its delivery into the IC. Vol 32, No 1 Page ii American Intelligence Journal AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE JOURNAL Table of Contents Editor's Desk ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 A Short Primer on Deception and What to Do about It by David T. Moore......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Leaks and Their Consequences: A Guide to the Controversy over Secrecy vs. Open Government by Dr. Warren E. Snyder .............................................................................................................................................. 13 Countering Denial and Deception in the Early 21st Century: An Adaptation Strategy When All Else Fails by Dr. James B. Bruce .................................................................................................................................................. 17 The Ponzi Scheme as a Deception Operation: The Bernie Madoff Case Study by Michael R. Heydenburg ......................................................................................................................................... 27 Deceived to Intervene: Non-State Actors’ Use of Deception to Elicit Western Intervention in Libya in 2011 by MAJ (USA) William S. Riley ................................................................................................................................... 35 Interwar Germany vs. Nuclear Iran: Applying Lessons Learned by Lisa M. Lopez .......................................................................................................................................................... 47 So Many Ways to Lie: The Complexity of Denial and Deception by David T. Moore and William N. Reynolds .............................................................................................................. 61 Hiding in Plain Sight by R. Kent Tiernan ....................................................................................................................................................... 71 Toward a Counterdeception Tradecraft by Michael Bennett and Edward Waltz ........................................................................................................................ 77 The Assassination Attempt on Pope John Paul II: Foreign Denial and Deception by LTC (USAR) Raymond J. Faunt ................................................................................................................................ 87 Fact and Fiction: Assessing Denial and Deception in South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Program by Brian Gordon ........................................................................................................................................................... 94 Intelligence Support to Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief Operations: A Case Study in Ebola Response by LTC (USA) David Conkle ...................................................................................................................................... 102 Fallacies in the Face of Freedom: Cognitive Errors from the Benghazi Attack by Capt (USAF) George H. Van Dyke III.................................................................................................................... 107 Theory and Practice: Developing CCIRs through Alternative Analysis by Maj (USAF) Will Atkins ........................................................................................................................................ 115 From Core Concern to Valued Partner: The Role of Counterintelligence in Effective Foreign Liaison by LCDR Todd C. Moe ............................................................................................................................................... 117 Pakistan, Militants, and the Bomb by Erik D. Jens ............................................................................................................................................................ 131 Binary Terror: The Reality of Terrorism in a Virtual World by Troy E. Smith ......................................................................................................................................................... 137 American Intelligence Journal Page iii Vol 32, No 1 AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE JOURNAL Table of Contents (Continued) The Strategic Implications of Chinese Conduct by Col (USAF, Ret) Eric S. Gartner ............................................................................................................................. 145 Turkey and Belarus as Antidotes to Russian Aggression by Amb (Ret) David H. Swartz and Dr. James A. Sheppard........................................................................................ 151 Cyber Vigilance: The Human Factor by Dr. Ben D. Sawyer, Dr. Victor S. Finomore, Dr. Gregory J. Funke, Dr. Gerald Matthews, Dr. Vincent Mancuso, Dr. Matthew Funke, Dr. Joel S. Warm, and Dr. Peter A. Hancock............................................................................... 157 In My View... Communications Intelligence, C4I, and U.S. National Leadership by Timothy C. Lawson ............................................................................................................................................... 166 Profiles
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