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UNO Template 21 August 2014 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Automobile Manufacturers (Auto (Japan)) / OVERWEIGHT Mitsubishi Motors (7211 / 7211 JP) Rating OUTPERFORM* INITIATION Price (20 Aug 14, ¥) 1,140 Target price (¥) 1,500¹ Chg to TP (%) 31.6 Market cap. (¥ bn) 1,121.37 (US$ 10.87) Entering new growth stage Enterprise value (¥ bn) 801.37 Number of shares (mn) 983.66 ■ Action: We initiate coverage of Mitsubishi Motors (MMC) with an Free float (%) 58.6 OUTPERFORM rating and a ¥1,500 target price (potential return 31.6%). MMC 52 -week price range 1,280 - 1,000 has rejuvenated its operations despite difficulties in Japan and overseas, *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each including a major management crisis, the 2011 earthquake, flooding in Thailand, analyst's or each team's respective sector. ¹Target price is for 12 months. and sharp yen appreciation. In FY3/14 the company posted record profits, bought back all preferred shares, and reinstated its dividend; we believe it is now Research Analysts transitioning to a new growth stage as outlined in its medium-term business plan Masahiro Akita (New Stage 2016). 81 3 4550 7361 [email protected] ■ Pursuing clearer brand identity: MMC seeks to establish a clearer identity for the brand during its anticipated growth phase by concentrating management resources in areas offering high growth and added value. We forecast sustained profit growth owing to: (1) expansion in emerging markets, (2) increased sales of pickup trucks, SUVs, and crossovers, (3) an expanded presence in such environmentally friendly vehicles as plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and EVs, (4) increased potential for the "Global Small Vehicle" Mirage, and (5) the pursuit of profit opportunities and effective use of resources via cooperation with partners. ■ Substantial upside potential to FY3/15 guidance: We forecast FY3/15 OP of ¥161bn, well above MMC’s ¥135bn guidance and the I/B/E/S consensus of ¥143.2bn, driven by benefits from favorable forex and cost reductions. With visibility on a FY3/15 earnings beat increasing, we look for MMC’s share price to rebound significantly. ■ Catalysts/risks: Catalysts include a recovery in demand in Thailand and better- than-expected profits from 2Q. Risks include weaker-than-expected sales in Russia and currency fluctuations. ■ Valuation: We base our ¥1,500 TP on a fair-value P/B of 2.24x applied to end- FY3/15E BPS of ¥672. We apply a 9% discount to a theoretical P/B of 2.46x derived from adjusted FY3/15E ROE of 19.5% (assumes normal tax rate) and 7.9% COE. We think the shares currently look undervalued. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 3/14A 3/15E 3/16E 3/17E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Revenue (¥ bn) 2,093.4 2,220.0 2,385.0 2,529.0 160 1600 Operating profit (¥ bn) 123.4 161.0 178.0 196.0 140 Recurring profit (¥ bn) 129.5 164.0 183.0 203.0 120 1100 Net income (¥ bn) 104.7 131.0 145.0 146.0 100 600 80 EPS (¥) 156.6 133.2 147.4 148.5 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 119.0 126.2 133.1 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 2,271.7 -14.9 10.7 0.7 TOPIX which closed at 1279.64 on 20/08/14 On 20/08/14 the spot exchange rate was ¥103.19/US$1 P/E (x) 6.9 8.6 7.7 7.7 Dividend yield (%) 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.2 EV/EBITDA(x) 4.7 3.7 2.9 2.3 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 Absolute (%) 1.8 9.3 0.1 ROE(%) 23.8 21.8 20.0 17.2 Relative (%) 0.5 -0.1 -13.6 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IFIS, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 21 August 2014 Table of contents Key charts 3 Entering new growth stage 5 Pursuing clearer brand identity 5 Expansion in emerging markets 7 Past growth measures about to start paying off 7 Growing sales of pickups, SUVs, and crossovers 15 Aims to grow sales via strategic product launches 15 Eco-car development centered on PHEV/EV 18 Aims to be electric car technology leader 18 Growing potential for global strategic model Mirage 23 Aiming to position Mirage as entry-level vehicle for emerging markets, eco-car for advanced markets 23 Seeking earnings, efficient use of resources via joint business 26 Cooperation with Nissan via NMKV 26 Model pipeline 28 Maintaining focus on areas of strength 28 Earnings outlook 30 Major upside potential to consensus forecast 30 Valuation 36 Looking broadly undervalued 36 Risks 38 Risks include volume, forex, materials costs, recalls, natural disasters 38 Mitsubishi Motors (7211 / 7211 JP) 2 21 August 2014 Key charts Figure 1: Consensus estimates could move sharply Figure 2: Shares have yet to reflect near-term earnings higher prospects 250 9% 2,500 50 Billion Yen Yen Billion Yen 8% 45 200 7% 2,000 40 35 6% 150 1,500 30 5% 25 4% 100 1,000 20 3% 15 50 2% 500 10 1% 5 0 0% 0 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E OP CSE (LHS) OP Cons. (LHS) OPM (RHS) OPM Cons. (RHS) OP (RHS) Share Price (LHS) Source: Company data, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Emerging markets account for 59% of retail Figure 4: Exposure to ASEAN markets particularly high volume (FY3/14) Japan Thailand 14% Others 14% 25% North America Indonesia 9% 15% Europe Emerging Market 11% 59% Russia Philippines 13% 7% Australia/NZ 7% Taiwan Brazil China 5% 9% 12% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Source: Company data, Credit Suisse Figure 5: Pickups, SUVs, and crossovers account for over Figure 6: The Triton is Mitsubishi Motors’ bestseller 50% of sales (FY3/14) Thousands Units 160 20% 140 18% 16% 120 14% 100 12% Passemger Cars Pick-Up Trucks / / Others SUVs / 80 10% 43% Crossover Vehicles 60 8% 57% 6% 40 4% 20 2% 0 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Triton/L200/Strada (LHS) Percentage of Triton/L200/Strada (RHS) Source: Marklines, Credit Suisse Source: Marklines, Credit Suisse Mitsubishi Motors (7211 / 7211 JP) 3 21 August 2014 Figure 7: MMC/PSA’s PHEV/EV global market share 13% Figure 8: Expecting rapid growth in sales of MMC’s (2013) PHEV/EV models 100 Thousands Units 90 Other 80 18% Nissan 70 23% 60 Toyota 50 10% 40 MMC/PSA 13% 30 Renault 11% 20 10 Tesla GM 12% 13% 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E EV PHEV Source: Fourin, Credit Suisse Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 9: Mirage share of MMC sales volume (2013) Figure 10: Mirage global sales volume and contribution to MMC’s total sales 10 Thousands Units 12% 9 Mirage / 10% 8 Spacestar / 7 Attrage 8% Other Passenger 8% 6 Cars 35% 5 6% 4 4% 3 2 Pick-Up Trucks / 2% SUVs / 1 Crossover 0 0% Vehicles 57% Jul-12 Jul-13 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jan-12 Jun-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Nov-12 Dec-12 Nov-13 Dec-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Aug-13 Sep-13 May-12 May-13 May-14 Mirage/Spacestar/Attrage (LHS) Percentage of Mirage/Spacestar/Attrage (RHS) Source: Marklines, Credit Suisse Source: Marklines, Credit Suisse Figure 11: Alliance has led to sharp rebound in mini- Figure 12: Share of mini-vehicle production has recovered vehicle output to 9% 200 Thousands Units 180 MMC 9% 160 140 Daihatsu 120 Honda 35% 21% 100 80 60 40 20 Suzuki 0 35% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: JAMA, Credit Suisse Source: JAMA, Credit Suisse Mitsubishi Motors (7211 / 7211 JP) 4 21 August 2014 Entering new growth stage Pursuing clearer brand identity Initiate coverage with OUTPERFORM rating We initiate coverage of Mitsubishi Motors (MMC) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a ¥1,500 TP (potential return 31.6%). The company has made steady progress in reviving its operations despite difficulties in Japan and overseas including a major management crisis, the Great East Japan Earthquake, flooding in Thailand, and sharp yen appreciation. In FY3/14 the company posted record profits, bought back all preferred shares, and reinstated its dividend; we believe it is now transitioning to a new growth stage as outlined in its medium-term business plan (New Stage 2016). Efforts to clarify brand identity could support sustained profit growth MMC seeks to establish a clearer identity for the brand during its anticipated growth phase by further concentrating management resources in areas offering high growth and added value.
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