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Monetary Policy & the Economy Q1-12 D:HI:GG:>8=>H8=:C6I>DC6A76C@ :JGDHNHI:B MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Quarterly Review of Economic Policy &%NZVghd[:jgd8Vh] Stability and Security. Q1/12 Monetary Policy & the Economy provides analyses and studies on central banking and economic policy topics and is published at quarterly intervals. Publisher and editor Oesterreichische Nationalbank Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria PO Box 61, 1011 Vienna, Austria www.oenb.at [email protected] Phone (+43-1) 40420-6666 Fax (+43-1) 40420-6698 Editorial board Peter Mooslechner, Ernest Gnan, Franz Nauschnigg, Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, Martin Summer Managing editor Claudia Kwapil Editing Karin Fischer Translations Jennifer Gredler, Rena Mühldorf, Ingeborg Schuch Design Communications Division Layout and typesetting Walter Grosser, Susanne Neubauer, Birgit Vogt Printing and production Web and Printing Services DVR 0031577 © Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 2012. All rights reserved. May be reproduced for noncommercial, educational and scientific purposes, on condition that the source is named. REG.NO. AT- 000311 Printed according to the Austrian Ecolabel guideline for printed matter. Contents Call for Applications Visiting Research Program 4 The Economy has Bottomed Out 5 Martin Schneider, Josef Schreiner, Maria Silgoner In Focus: 10 Years of Euro Cash Editorial 24 Claudia Kwapil Euro Cash in Austria, Ten Years On 28 Alexandra Koch, Doris Schneeberger Euro Cash in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe 41 Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, Thomas Scheiber The Euro – Public Opinion in the Ten Years after the Euro Changeover 56 Manfred Fluch, Sabine Schlögl How Euro Banknotes in Circulation Affect Intra-Eurosystem Balances 70 Lenka Krsnakova, Maria Oberleithner Understanding TARGET2: The Eurosystem’s Euro Payment System from an Economic and Balance Sheet Perspective 81 Clemens Jobst, Martin Handig, Robert Holzfeind The Pass-Through of Commodity Prices to Consumer Prices of Selected Products 92 Fabio Rumler Price Level Convergence Before and After the Advent of EMU 105 Friedrich Fritzer Notes List of Studies Published in Monetary Policy & the Economy 118 Periodical Publications 121 Addresses 122 Opinions expressed by the authors of studies do not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank or of the Eurosystem. MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Q1/12 3 Call for Applications: Visiting Research Program The Oesterreichische Nationalbank the department’s computer resources. (OeNB) invites applications from ex- Their research output may be published ternal researchers for participation in a in one of the department’s publication Visiting Research Program established outlets or as an OeNB Working Paper. by the OeNB’s Economic Analysis and Research visits should ideally last Research Department. The purpose of between 3 and 6 months, but timing is this program is to enhance cooperation flexible. with members of academic and rese- Applications (in English) should arch institutions (preferably post-doc) include who work in the fields of macroecono- – a curriculum vitae, mics, international economics or finan- – a research proposal that motivates cial economics and/or with a regional and clearly describes the envisaged focus on Central, Eastern and South- research project, eastern Europe. – an indication of the period envisa- The OeNB offers a stimulating and ged for the research stay, and professional research environment in – information on previous scientific close proximity to the policymaking work. process. Visiting researchers are expec- Applications for 2013 should be ted to collaborate with the OeNB’s e-mailed to research staff on a prespecified topic [email protected] and to participate actively in the by November 1, 2012. department’s internal seminars and Applicants will be notified of the other research activities. They will be jury’s decision by mid-December. The provided with accommodation on de- following round of applications will mand and will, as a rule, have access to close on May 1, 2013. 4 MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Q1/12 The Economy has Bottomed Out While Japan’s economy is showing the first signs of a hesitant recovery, the upturn already Martin Schneider, gained a foothold in the U.S. economy in the second half of 2011 on the back of robust Josef Schreiner, domestic demand. Conditions in the labor market relaxed perceptibly, while the real estate Maria Silgoner1 market is still waiting for a rebound. The U.S. Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan changed their respective monetary policies at the beginning of 2012 to communicate their inflation goal clearly. At the same time, both central banks decided to keep their key interest rates at a historically low level for the time being. By contrast, China’s economy has lost momentum, prompting the Chinese central bank to start easing monetary policy. After the euro area economy had started to revive in the first half of 2011, conditions clouded over from mid-2011. In the fourth quarter of 2011, real GDP weakened by 0.3% against the previous quarter. With the consolidation measures required in all sectors dampen- ing economic activity, net exports remained the only stable support for growth. In the first quarter of 2012, GDP is anticipated to decline marginally as well, but leading indicators signal that it will recover thereafter. Ongoing tensions in the bond markets that progressively spread to other financial market segments called for new monetary policy measures – the reduction of interest rates, the provision of additional long-term liquidity and the relaxation of the eligibility criteria for collateral. These measures along with the EU and international rescue packages as well as EU economic governance reforms eased tensions in the financial markets at the beginning of 2012 and restored confidence. Economic conditions deteriorated noticeably in the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) EU Member States until the turn of the year 2011 to 2012. In the fourth quarter of 2011, average growth in the region flagged markedly; many countries reported contracting growth. In recent months, signs of a trend reversal in the first quarter of 2012 have been mounting. However, if the rally continues beyond the first quarter of 2012, it will be very small. In 2011, the Austrian economy expanded by a stronger than expected +3.0%, but succes- sively lost momentum in the course of the year. GDP growth, still above average in the first half of 2011, contracted slightly in the fourth quarter. Quite likely, the economy has already bottomed out. The OeNB’s Economic Indicator signals a stabilization of Austria’s economy for the first half of 2012. Despite the high employment growth recorded in 2011, which lasted into the beginning of 2012, unemployment rose somewhat. After peaking in fall 2011, inflation is currently subsiding notably. JEL classification: E2, E3, 01 Keywords: global outlook, euro area, Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Austria 1 Recovery in the U.S.A.; China, powered domestic demand, while pub- the Motor of Global Growth, Is lic spending made a negative contribu- Losing Steam tion to growth. A marginally negative 1.1 U.S. Economy Posts Clear Signs contribution came from net exports as of a Comeback well. The recovery of the labor market At the end of 2011, the U.S. economy continued: At the beginning of 2012, exhibited clear signs of revival. Real the unemployment rate came to 8.3%, GDP expanded by 3.0% annualized in the lowest value since spring 2009. the fourth quarter of 2011. Domestic Conversely, the recovery of the real demand – above all gross fixed capital estate market is still languishing. At the formation and consumer spending – end of 2011, real estate prices as mea- 1 Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division, [email protected]; Foreign Research Division, Editorial deadline: [email protected], [email protected]. March 15, 2012 MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Q1/12 5 The Economy has Bottomed Out Chart 1 U.S.A.: Components of Real GDP Growth Contributions to growth (quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized) in percentage points 6 4 2 0 –2 –4 –6 –8 –10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Net exports GDP in % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. sured by the Case Shiller house price consumption expenditures, which is a index were still 4% lower than one year goal that is in keeping with the targets earlier and were still receding. of other central banks across the world. Leading indicators point to a con- In January 2012, the rise in the price tinuation of the upswing. The IMF is index for personal consumption expen- forecasting 1.8% growth for 2012 and ditures in the U.S.A. came to 2.4%. an acceleration of the expansion to Unlike for central banks pursuing a 2.2% in 2013. While domestic demand classical inflation targeting policy, the is expected to firm, global foreign legislator prescribes that the Fed pur- demand will be sluggish. The future sue not just price stability, but also direction of fiscal policy remains a fac- maximum employment and moderate tor of uncertainty: The U.S. budget long-term interest rates. The Fed has deficit will be close to 10% again in announced that it would follow a bal- 2012, and government debt could bur- anced approach in promoting the objec- geon to nearly 110% of GDP in 2013. tives in case they are not complemen- The strong reduction of unemploy- tary. ment could soon feed into higher infla- In addition to setting an explicit tionary pressure; at the current junc- inflation target, the Fed took an addi- ture, it has checked the downtrend in tional step in January 2012 to increase overall inflation. In its decisions and transparency, namely by announcing communications, the Federal Reserve that it would regularly publish the indi- System (Fed) will put greater emphasis vidual FOMC participants’ detailed on the development of inflation.
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