DOCSLIB.ORG

Monetary Policy & the Economy Q1-12

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

D:HI:GG:>8=>H8=:C6I>DC6A76C@ :JGDHNHI:B MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Quarterly Review of Economic Policy &%NZVghd[:jgd8Vh] Stability and Security. Q1/12 Monetary Policy & the Economy provides analyses and studies on central banking and economic policy topics and is published at quarterly intervals. Publisher and editor Oesterreichische Nationalbank Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria PO Box 61, 1011 Vienna, Austria www.oenb.at [email protected] Phone (+43-1) 40420-6666 Fax (+43-1) 40420-6698 Editorial board Peter Mooslechner, Ernest Gnan, Franz Nauschnigg, Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, Martin Summer Managing editor Claudia Kwapil Editing Karin Fischer Translations Jennifer Gredler, Rena Mühldorf, Ingeborg Schuch Design Communications Division Layout and typesetting Walter Grosser, Susanne Neubauer, Birgit Vogt Printing and production Web and Printing Services DVR 0031577 © Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 2012. All rights reserved. May be reproduced for noncommercial, educational and scientific purposes, on condition that the source is named. REG.NO. AT- 000311 Printed according to the Austrian Ecolabel guideline for printed matter. Contents Call for Applications Visiting Research Program 4 The Economy has Bottomed Out 5 Martin Schneider, Josef Schreiner, Maria Silgoner In Focus: 10 Years of Euro Cash Editorial 24 Claudia Kwapil Euro Cash in Austria, Ten Years On 28 Alexandra Koch, Doris Schneeberger Euro Cash in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe 41 Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, Thomas Scheiber The Euro – Public Opinion in the Ten Years after the Euro Changeover 56 Manfred Fluch, Sabine Schlögl How Euro Banknotes in Circulation Affect Intra-Eurosystem Balances 70 Lenka Krsnakova, Maria Oberleithner Understanding TARGET2: The Eurosystem’s Euro Payment System from an Economic and Balance Sheet Perspective 81 Clemens Jobst, Martin Handig, Robert Holzfeind The Pass-Through of Commodity Prices to Consumer Prices of Selected Products 92 Fabio Rumler Price Level Convergence Before and After the Advent of EMU 105 Friedrich Fritzer Notes List of Studies Published in Monetary Policy & the Economy 118 Periodical Publications 121 Addresses 122 Opinions expressed by the authors of studies do not necessarily reflect the official viewpoint of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank or of the Eurosystem. MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Q1/12 3 Call for Applications: Visiting Research Program The Oesterreichische Nationalbank the department’s computer resources. (OeNB) invites applications from ex- Their research output may be published ternal researchers for participation in a in one of the department’s publication Visiting Research Program established outlets or as an OeNB Working Paper. by the OeNB’s Economic Analysis and Research visits should ideally last Research Department. The purpose of between 3 and 6 months, but timing is this program is to enhance cooperation flexible. with members of academic and rese- Applications (in English) should arch institutions (preferably post-doc) include who work in the fields of macroecono- – a curriculum vitae, mics, international economics or finan- – a research proposal that motivates cial economics and/or with a regional and clearly describes the envisaged focus on Central, Eastern and South- research project, eastern Europe. – an indication of the period envisa- The OeNB offers a stimulating and ged for the research stay, and professional research environment in – information on previous scientific close proximity to the policymaking work. process. Visiting researchers are expec- Applications for 2013 should be ted to collaborate with the OeNB’s e-mailed to research staff on a prespecified topic [email protected] and to participate actively in the by November 1, 2012. department’s internal seminars and Applicants will be notified of the other research activities. They will be jury’s decision by mid-December. The provided with accommodation on de- following round of applications will mand and will, as a rule, have access to close on May 1, 2013. 4 MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Q1/12 The Economy has Bottomed Out While Japan’s economy is showing the first signs of a hesitant recovery, the upturn already Martin Schneider, gained a foothold in the U.S. economy in the second half of 2011 on the back of robust Josef Schreiner, domestic demand. Conditions in the labor market relaxed perceptibly, while the real estate Maria Silgoner1 market is still waiting for a rebound. The U.S. Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan changed their respective monetary policies at the beginning of 2012 to communicate their inflation goal clearly. At the same time, both central banks decided to keep their key interest rates at a historically low level for the time being. By contrast, China’s economy has lost momentum, prompting the Chinese central bank to start easing monetary policy. After the euro area economy had started to revive in the first half of 2011, conditions clouded over from mid-2011. In the fourth quarter of 2011, real GDP weakened by 0.3% against the previous quarter. With the consolidation measures required in all sectors dampen- ing economic activity, net exports remained the only stable support for growth. In the first quarter of 2012, GDP is anticipated to decline marginally as well, but leading indicators signal that it will recover thereafter. Ongoing tensions in the bond markets that progressively spread to other financial market segments called for new monetary policy measures – the reduction of interest rates, the provision of additional long-term liquidity and the relaxation of the eligibility criteria for collateral. These measures along with the EU and international rescue packages as well as EU economic governance reforms eased tensions in the financial markets at the beginning of 2012 and restored confidence. Economic conditions deteriorated noticeably in the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) EU Member States until the turn of the year 2011 to 2012. In the fourth quarter of 2011, average growth in the region flagged markedly; many countries reported contracting growth. In recent months, signs of a trend reversal in the first quarter of 2012 have been mounting. However, if the rally continues beyond the first quarter of 2012, it will be very small. In 2011, the Austrian economy expanded by a stronger than expected +3.0%, but succes- sively lost momentum in the course of the year. GDP growth, still above average in the first half of 2011, contracted slightly in the fourth quarter. Quite likely, the economy has already bottomed out. The OeNB’s Economic Indicator signals a stabilization of Austria’s economy for the first half of 2012. Despite the high employment growth recorded in 2011, which lasted into the beginning of 2012, unemployment rose somewhat. After peaking in fall 2011, inflation is currently subsiding notably. JEL classification: E2, E3, 01 Keywords: global outlook, euro area, Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Austria 1 Recovery in the U.S.A.; China, powered domestic demand, while pub- the Motor of Global Growth, Is lic spending made a negative contribu- Losing Steam tion to growth. A marginally negative 1.1 U.S. Economy Posts Clear Signs contribution came from net exports as of a Comeback well. The recovery of the labor market At the end of 2011, the U.S. economy continued: At the beginning of 2012, exhibited clear signs of revival. Real the unemployment rate came to 8.3%, GDP expanded by 3.0% annualized in the lowest value since spring 2009. the fourth quarter of 2011. Domestic Conversely, the recovery of the real demand – above all gross fixed capital estate market is still languishing. At the formation and consumer spending – end of 2011, real estate prices as mea- 1 Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division, [email protected]; Foreign Research Division, Editorial deadline: [email protected], [email protected]. March 15, 2012 MONETARY POLICY & THE ECONOMY Q1/12 5 The Economy has Bottomed Out Chart 1 U.S.A.: Components of Real GDP Growth Contributions to growth (quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized) in percentage points 6 4 2 0 –2 –4 –6 –8 –10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Net exports GDP in % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. sured by the Case Shiller house price consumption expenditures, which is a index were still 4% lower than one year goal that is in keeping with the targets earlier and were still receding. of other central banks across the world. Leading indicators point to a con- In January 2012, the rise in the price tinuation of the upswing. The IMF is index for personal consumption expen- forecasting 1.8% growth for 2012 and ditures in the U.S.A. came to 2.4%. an acceleration of the expansion to Unlike for central banks pursuing a 2.2% in 2013. While domestic demand classical inflation targeting policy, the is expected to firm, global foreign legislator prescribes that the Fed pur- demand will be sluggish. The future sue not just price stability, but also direction of fiscal policy remains a fac- maximum employment and moderate tor of uncertainty: The U.S. budget long-term interest rates. The Fed has deficit will be close to 10% again in announced that it would follow a bal- 2012, and government debt could bur- anced approach in promoting the objec- geon to nearly 110% of GDP in 2013. tives in case they are not complemen- The strong reduction of unemploy- tary. ment could soon feed into higher infla- In addition to setting an explicit tionary pressure; at the current junc- inflation target, the Fed took an addi- ture, it has checked the downtrend in tional step in January 2012 to increase overall inflation. In its decisions and transparency, namely by announcing communications, the Federal Reserve that it would regularly publish the indi- System (Fed) will put greater emphasis vidual FOMC participants’ detailed on the development of inflation.
Recommended publications
  • DNB Occasional Studies Vol.8/No.4 (2010)

    DNB Occasional Studies Vol.8/No.4 (2010)

    Occasional Studies Banknote design for retailers and public DNB Occasional Studies Vol.8/No.4 (2010) Hans de Heij Central bank and prudential supervisor of financial institutions ©2010 De Ne der land sche Bank NV Author: Hans de Heij e-mail: [email protected] Aim of the Occasional Studies is to disseminate thinking on policy and analytical issues in areas relevant to the Bank. Views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of De Ne der land sche Bank. Editorial Committee Jakob de Haan (chairman), Eelco van den Berg (secretary), Hans Brits, Pim Claassen, Maria Demertzis, Peter van Els, Jan Willem van den End, Maarten Gelderman and Bram Scholten. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of De Ne der land sche Bank. Subscription orders for DNB Occasional Studies and requests for specimen copies should be sent to: De Ne der land sche Bank NV Communications P.O. Box 98 1000 AB Amsterdam The Netherlands Internet: www.dnb.nl Occasional Studies Vol.8/No.4 (2010) Hans de Heij Banknote design for retailers and public Banknote design for retailers and public Abstract Two stakeholders of banknote design are discussed, retailers and the general public. A retailer on average receives around 120 banknotes a day. A security check should be effected in less than two seconds and avoid discussion with the client.
  • Final Report EU

    Final Report EU

    May 2017 – Final Report Report on the Debate Regarding EU Cash Payment Limitations Critical analysis and review Contact: [email protected] 1 Website: www.o-c-o.net Report on the Debate Regarding EU Cash Payment Limitations Critical analysis and review by Nikos Passas Northeastern University, Boston Vienna Centre for Corporate Governance and Business Ethics Basel Institute on Governance President of the OCO –UN Board Contact: [email protected] 2 Website: www.o-c-o.net Table of Contents Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 5 The Presentation of the EU Initiative .................................................................................................... 6 Inception Impact Assessment ............................................................................................................. 6 The IIA Questionnaire .......................................................................................................................... 7 The stated goals of the EU initiative: More Effective Control of Serious Crime? ................ 8 Terrorist Finance in the European Context ..............................................................................
  • Essays on Three Operational and Strategic Problems of Central Banks in a World of Low Interest Rates Or with Interbank Market Frictions

    Essays on Three Operational and Strategic Problems of Central Banks in a World of Low Interest Rates Or with Interbank Market Frictions

    Essays on Three Operational and Strategic Problems of Central Banks in a World of Low Interest Rates or with Interbank Market Frictions by Thomas Link Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Business Administration and Economics Heinrich Heine University D¨usseldorf on December 5, 2019, in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of doctor rerum politicarum (Dr. rer. pol.) Supervisor and Referee: Prof. Dr. Ulrike Neyer Referee: Prof. Dr. Hans-Theo Normann To Ela, my great love Acknowledgments I am grateful for the privilege that has been granted to me having been allowed to expe- rience the intellectually and personally enriching time I have had as a doctoral student in D¨usseldorf. Ulrike Neyer has substantially shaped this time. She has been an inspiring teacher, a deeply committed and exceptional supervisor, and a tireless discussion partner. I have learned a lot from her in countless hours of intense discussions and from a vast number of valuable remarks she made on my work. I am deeply indebted to Ulrike Neyer for her encouragement, support, guidance as well as for the extraordinary amount of trust and freedom she gave me. I also would like to thank Hans-Theo Normann for his helpful comments and for his readiness to review this dissertation. At the faculty, and in particular at the chair of Monetary Economics, I benefited from having colleagues who contributed to a productive and to an uncomplicated environment and I am thankful for their steady cooperation and support. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Heinrich Heine University D¨usseldorf and from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia which funded my position as Ulrike Neyer’s research and teaching assistant.
  • 5068/07 ADD1 REV 1 TB/Pm 1 DG GI COUNCIL OF

    5068/07 ADD1 REV 1 TB/Pm 1 DG GI COUNCIL OF

    COUNCIL OF Brussels, 21 February 2007 THE EUROPEAN UNION 5068/07 ADD 1 REV 1 UEM 2 ECOFIN 4 COVER NOTE No Cion doc: SEC(2006) 1786/2 Subject: Commission staff working document Annex to the communication from the Commission to the Council, the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Central Bank - Five years of euro banknotes and coins Delegations will find attached a new version of Commission document SEC(2006) 1786. ________________________ Encl. : SEC(2006) 1786/2 5068/07 ADD1 REV 1 TB/pm 1 DG G I EN COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 20.2.2007 SEC(2006) 1786/2 CORRIGENDUM: Ce document annule et remplace le SEC(2006)1786 du 22.12.2006. Concerne la page 28 de la version EN. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Annex to the COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE, THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK Five years of euro banknotes and coins {COM(2006) 862 final} EN EN TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................4 2. General trends of the circulation of euro banknotes and coins................................................................4 2.1. Use of cash as a means of payment in the euro area ...............................................................................4 2.2. Evolution of the circulation level of euro cash........................................................................................5
  • Public Feed Back for Better Banknote Design 2 Central Bank and Prudential Supervisor of Financial Institutions

    Public Feed Back for Better Banknote Design 2 Central Bank and Prudential Supervisor of Financial Institutions

    Occasional Studies Vol.5/No.2 (2007) Hans de Heij Public feed back for better banknote design 2 Central bank and prudential supervisor of financial institutions ©2007 De Nederlandsche Bank nv Author: Hans de Heij e-mail: [email protected] The aim of the Occasional Studies is to disseminate thinking on policy and analytical issues in areas relevant to the Bank. Views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of De Nederlandsche Bank. Editorial Committee: Jan Marc Berk (chairman), Eelco van den Berg (secretary), Hans Brits, Maria Demertzis, Peter van Els, Jan Willem van den End, Maarten Gelderman, Klaas Knot, Bram Scholten and Job Swank. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of De Nederlandsche Bank. Subscription orders for dnb Occasional Studies and requests for specimen copies should be sent to: De Nederlandsche Bank nv Communications p.o. Box 98 1000 ab Amsterdam The Netherlands Internet: www.dnb.nl Public feed back for better banknote design 2 Public feed back for better banknote design 2 Hans A.M. de Heij De Nederlandsche Bank nv, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Abstract Developers of new banknotes can optimise banknote designs by making use of 1) public feedback, 2) strategic communication policy, 3) a design philosophy and 4) the stakeholders’ approach reflected in a Programme of Requirements. The synthesis of these four elements will lead to new design concepts for banknotes, as illustrated in this article.
  • Eesti Pank Annual Report 2013

    Eesti Pank Annual Report 2013

    EESTI PANK ANNUAL REPORT 2013 2014 CONTENTS FOREWORD BY THE GOVERNOR OF EESTI PANK...................................................................................4 EESTI PANK’S KEY DUTIES ......................................................................................................................7 THE GLOBAL, EURO AREA AND ESTONIAN ECONOMIES ....................................................................10 The external environment .....................................................................................................................10 The Estonian economy and financial sector ..........................................................................................11 ACTIVITIES AND ACHIEVEMENTS OF EESTI PANK IN 2013 ....................................................................15 Participation in monetary policy decision-making in the eurosystem and implementation of decisions .......................................................................................15 Monetary policy decisions of the Eurosystem ...................................................................................15 Implementing monetary policy decisions in the euro area and Estonia ..............................................16 Managing currency circulation ..............................................................................................................20 Payment systems ............................................................................................................................20 Cash ...............................................................................................................................................24
  • Eesti Pank Annual Report 2015

    Eesti Pank Annual Report 2015

    EESTI PANK ANNUAL REPORT 2015 2016 © Eesti Pank, 2016 Address Estonia pst 13 15095 Tallinn Phone 668 0719 Fax 668 0836 E-mail [email protected] Website www.eestipank.ee Subscriptions for publications of Eesti Pank Phone 668 0998 Fax 668 0954 e-mail [email protected] ISSN 2382-8811 Editor: Kaja Kell Layout: Urmas Raidma CONTENTS FOREWORD BY THE GOVERNOR OF EESTI PANK...................................................................................4 THE SUPERVISORY BOARD OF EESTI PANK ...........................................................................................8 ACTIVITIES OF EESTI PANK IN 2015 .......................................................................................................13 PARTICIPATION IN MONETARY POLICY DECISION-MAKING IN THE EUROSYSTEM AND IMPLEMENTATION OF DECISIONS ..............................................................13 Monetary policy decisions of the Eurosystem ...................................................................................13 Implementing monetary policy decisions in the euro area and Estonia ..............................................15 Eesti Pank’s monetary policy operations ..........................................................................................16 SAFEGUARDING FINANCIAL STABILITY .............................................................................................18 Macroprudential policy ....................................................................................................................18 Financial sector policy
  • Time for a Rethink

    Time for a Rethink

    01 19 New! EOS Journal is now EOS explore. Comprehensive insights delivered How teams get creative twice a year. Time for a rethink eos-solutions.com — Growth markets Sales of receivables Blockchain at work Eastern Europe demands Values count More sources solid know-how more than prices mean more trust The magazine for customers of the EOSThe Group eos-solutions.com editorial For a debt-free world EOS originated in 1974 as the debt collection arm of the Otto Group 20 ,000 in Germany. Now, EOS is an customers international financial investor and including banks, Dear Readers, insurance companies service provider and a trusted partner and utilities, mail to customers from a wide range of order firms and telcos, sectors in 26 countries. mechanical engineering firms and publishers, How do you know that you’re working at the right company? are looked after When changes have to be made and your people don’t shout For Europe’s banks, we are one of by our more than 60 subsidiaries. “help!” but “super!”. When your team gets great pleasure out the leading purchasers of non- of reinventing things. performing loans (NPLs). We take over receivables management for So it is with this magazine. Last year we asked ourselves: companies, municipal authorities and More than Who needs a print magazine these days? What can paper do administrations, even across borders. that a screen can’t? Why do we believe that our journal is Through our services we ensure worth your time? liquidity and investments and safe - You are holding the answer in your hands.
  • Report 2002 Part 2 Activities and Annual Accounts FOREWORD

    Report 2002 Part 2 Activities and Annual Accounts FOREWORD

    Report 2002 Part 2 Activities and Annual Accounts FOREWORD Foreword By Guy Quaden, Governor The most signifi cant event in 2002 was the completion of the changeover to the new European currency. The introduction of euro banknotes and coins and the withdrawal of Belgian franc currency was a massive operation involving practically every sector of the economy. For the central banks concerned, including the National Bank of Belgium, it represented an unprecedented logistical and operational challenge. Everyone agrees that this operation was a great success. The new banknotes and coins were very well received by the people of the twelve euro area countries. The changeover to the new currency marks the completion of monetary unifi cation, and for the central banks concerned, it heralds the start of a new era. The Bank continues to carry out the tasks which it has performed for Belgium for the past 153 years, but in a new context, that of the Eurosystem composed of the European Central Bank and the national central banks of the twelve States which now have a common currency and a common monetary policy. The decisions are taken by the Governing Council of the ECB, while each of the national central banks in the Eurosystem prepares and implements the decisions. Under the Maastricht Treaty, the central banks of the Eurosystem also share the right to issue euro banknotes, hold and manage the foreign exchange reserves and participate in the other tasks of the Eurosystem, in particular promoting the smooth operation of payment systems and the smooth conduct of the policy relating to the stability of the fi nancial sector.
  • What Is a Fit Banknote? the Dutch Public Responds

    What Is a Fit Banknote? the Dutch Public Responds

    DNB Occasional Studies Vol.9/No.4 (2011) What is a fit banknote? The Dutch public responds DNB Occasional Studies Frank van der Horst, Martijn Meeter, Jan Theeuwes & Marcel van der Woude Central bank and prudential supervisor of financial institutions ©2011 De Nederlandsche Bank NV Author: Frank van der Horst, Martijn Meeter, Jan Theeuwes & Marcel van der Woude Email: [email protected]; [email protected] Aim of the Occasional Studies is to disseminate thinking on policy and analytical issues in areas relevant to the Bank. Views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of De Nederlandsche Bank. Editorial Committee Jakob de Haan (chairman), Eelco van den Berg (secretary), Hans Brits, Pim Claassen, Maria Demertzis, Peter van Els, Jan Willem van den End, Maarten Gelderman and Bram Scholten. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Nederlandsche Bank. Subscription orders for DNB Occasional Studies and requests for specimen copies should be sent to: De Nederlandsche Bank NV Communications P.O. Box 98 1000 AB Amsterdam The Netherlands Internet: www.dnb.nl Occasional Studies Vol.9/No.4 (2011) Frank van der Horst 1, Martijn Meeter 2, Jan Theeuwes2 & Marcel van der Woude 1 What is a fit banknote? The Dutch public responds 1 De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Amsterdam 2 Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam What is a fit banknote? The Dutch public responds Abstract De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) regularly checks euro banknotes in circulation for fitness for use.
  • A Rejtett Gazdaság És a Készpénzállomány Összefüggései

    A Rejtett Gazdaság És a Készpénzállomány Összefüggései

    KAPOSVÁR UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE Head of Doctors’ School: DR. GÁBOR UDOVECZ Doctor of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Supervisor: DR. CSABA SARUDI CSc in Economic Sciences Co-supervisor: DR. JÁNOS SZÁZ CSc in Economic Sciences CURRENCY DEMAND AND SHADOW ECONOMY IN HUNGARY Author: BALÁZS SISAK KAPOSVÁR 2010 1. AIMS, AND ANTECEDENT OF THE RESEARCH The euro changeover is late. In the begining of the century it was considered to be quite realistic that we are going to use euro by the end of the decade, but it did not happen until now. The reasons are referred back to the problems of the state’s interference. The reason, which is mostly claimed, that the public redistribution is not effective enough: wasting and abscence of sources is present at the same time. This became more serious when the budget deficit got very high because of short-term economic political decisions. This enlarged our indebtedness and according to this, the interest rate got higher because of the growing risk. This course became accelerating, and the credit crunch was making the situation all worse. The most significant problems are brought by the expansion of the shadow economy. On the one hand the underground economy is deforming the nominal economic indicators and because of this, the Maastricht criterias are not showing the concrete status of the economy, on the other hand the great level of the underground economy is leading to tax evasion and this also causes the delay of euro introduction. In the first part of my dissertation I am reviewing the convergence.
  • Counterfeit Currency Report

    Counterfeit Currency Report

    CASH DEPARTMENT COUNTERFEIT CURRENCY REPORT January – March 2021 May 2021 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia Contents: 1 Expert analysis of banknotes and coins .................................................................. 2 2 Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes ....................................................... 4 3 Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes ....................................... 6 1 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia 1 Expert analysis of banknotes and coins In the first three months of 2021, expert analysis of suspected counterfeit banknotes showed that 610 (dinar) notes were indeed counterfeits. Table 1 shows the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits. Table 1 Overview of detected banknote counterfeits January–March 2021 (in pieces) Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 20 Total Pieces 7 202 272 116 0 10 1 2 610 Share in % 1.15 33.11 44.59 19.02 0.00 1.64 0.16 0.33 100.00 Source: National Bank of Serbia In terms of the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits, the 1000-, 2000- and 500-dinar banknotes accounted for the dominant share (Chart 1). Percentage wise, these three denominations made up 96.72% of the total number of dinar counterfeits. Chart 1 Denominationstructure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−March 2021 (in pieces) 33.11% 1.15% 0.33% 0.16% 1.64% 19.02% 44.59% 20 50 100 500 1000 2000 5000 Source: National Bank of Serbia. Chart 2 illustrates the trends observed