CASH DEPARTMENT

COUNTERFEIT CURRENCY REPORT

January – March 2021

May 2021

Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia

Contents:

1 Expert analysis of banknotes and coins ...... 2 2 Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes ...... 4 3 Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes ...... 6

1 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia

1 Expert analysis of banknotes and coins

In the first three months of 2021, expert analysis of suspected counterfeit banknotes showed that 610 (dinar) notes were indeed counterfeits. Table 1 shows the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits.

Table 1 Overview of detected banknote counterfeits January–March 2021 (in pieces)

Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 20 Total

Pieces 7 202 272 116 0 10 1 2 610

Share in % 1.15 33.11 44.59 19.02 0.00 1.64 0.16 0.33 100.00

Source: National Bank of Serbia

In terms of the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits, the 1000-, 2000- and 500-dinar banknotes accounted for the dominant share (Chart 1). Percentage wise, these three denominations made up 96.72% of the total number of dinar counterfeits.

Chart 1 Denominationstructure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−March 2021 (in pieces)

33.11% 1.15% 0.33% 0.16% 1.64%

19.02%

44.59%

20 50 100 500 1000 2000 5000

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Chart 2 illustrates the trends observed over the last ten years in terms of the number of detected banknote counterfeits of the three most frequent denominations.

2 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia

Chart 2 The most frequent dinar counterfeits (in pieces)

3, 000 2,770 2,115 2,808 2, 500 2,106 2,087 2, 000 1,590 1,435 1, 50 0 1,562 1,114 1,510 1,239 1,267 725 860 794 1,729 1,782 1,870 1, 000 910 350 672 500 964 1,372 0 741 1,199 272 20 12 728 202 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 17 465 116 20 18 2019 2020 2021

500-dinar 10 00-d inar 2000-d inar

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In value terms, the 2000- and 1000-dinar banknotes made up the largest share of the dinar counterfeit structure (Table 2 and Chart 3). In percentage terms, these two denominations accounted for 87.78% of all dinar counterfeits.

Table 2 Dinar banknote counterfeits, January–March 2021 (in RSD thousand)

Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 20 Total

Pieces 35 404 272 58 0 1 0 0 770.1

Share in % 4.54 52.46 35.32 7.53 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.01 100.00

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Chart 3 Denomination structure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−March 2021 (nominally ) 4.54% 0.01% 0.01% 0.13% 7.53%

35.32%

52.46%

20 50 100 500 1000 2000 5000

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

3 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia

A comparison of the number of detected banknote counterfeits with that of genuine dinar banknotes in circulation reveals that 1.34 in every 1 million circulating banknotes were found to be counterfeit, i.e. there was RSD 2,421.11 worth of counterfeits in every RSD 1 billion.

2 Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes

Expert analysis of suspected counterfeit banknotes in the first three months of 2021 showed that 417 notes were indeed counterfeits. Their currency and denomination structure is presented in Table 3.

Table 3 Overview of detected foreign banknote counterfeits January–March 2021 (in pieces)

Currency: ЕUR USD Total Total Other Total ЕUR USD Denomination 500 200 100 50 20 10 100 50

Pieces 1 106 12 220 1 0 340 2 0 2 75 417

Share in % 0.24 25.42 2.88 52.76 0.24 0.00 81.53 0.48 0.00 0.48 17.99 100.00

Source: National Bank of Serbia

In the observed period, 340 counterfeit notes were detected, mostly in 200- and 50- euro denominations which is different from previous years when the 100- euro note was predominantly forged. Chart 4 illustrates the trends observed over the last ten years in terms of the number of detected counterfeit euro notes of these three denominations.

Chart 4 The most frequent euro counterfeits (in pieces)

1, 200 1, 00 0 1023 1,081 80 0 734 854 60 0 535 345 197 40 0 295 184 240 159 129 299 776 11897 239 200 90 40 430 243 323 30 0 20 43202 106 2012 12 20 13 2014 20 15 20 16 220 20 17 2018 124 20 19 20 20 2021

50-euro 100-euro 200-euro

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In the first three months of 2021, 2 counterfeit dollar banknotes were detected. It has been observable over the years that the 100-dollar note was the most dominant when it comes to dollar counterfeits. Chart 5 shows movements in the number of detected 100-dollar counterfeits over the last ten years.

4 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia

Chart 5 The most frequent US-dollar counterfeits (in pieces)

1,500 1,193 1,000 504 500 266 107 105 0 94 141 120 46 2012 2013 2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

100-dollar

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In the observed period, the column “Other” in Table 3 refers to fake banknotes in four different currencies – convertible marks (19 pieces), (one piece), (one piece), and (54 pieces). In nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total foreign cash counterfeits is best illustrated if expressed in ,1 as shown in Chart 6.

Chart 6 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January−March 2021 (in EUR thousand)

40.0000

35.0000

30.0000

25.0000

20.0000

15.0000

10.0000

5.0000

0.0000 EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

1 For conversion of other currencies into euros, we used the middle exchange rate as at 15 April 2021.

5 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia

3 Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes

Chart 7 shows the ratio of dinar to foreign currency detected counterfeits (in terms of the number of pieces) in the total number of detected counterfeit notes (1,027) in the first three months of 2021.

Chart 7 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits detected in January−March 2021 (in pieces)

2 75

340

610

RSD EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

As shown, in terms of the number of pieces, the share of counterfeit dinar banknotes is the highest – 610 pieces (59.40%), followed by the euro – 340 pieces (33.11%), other currencies – 75 pieces (7.30%) and US dollar – two pieces (0.19%). Further, in nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total counterfeits in the first three months of 2021 is best illustrated if expressed in dinars,2 as shown in Chart 8.

2 For conversion of other currencies into dinars, we used the middle exchange rate as at 15 April 2021.

6 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–March 2021 National Bank of Serbia

Chart 8 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits detected in January ̶ March 2021 (RSD thousand) 988.1

770.1 19.6

3,988.0

RSD EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In nominal value, expressed in dinars, the euro took up the dominant share in total detected counterfeits (69.17%). It was followed by the dinar (13.36%), other currencies (17.14%) and the US dollar (0.34%).

NOTE: In the observed period, expert analysis was performed for 8,093 counterfeit in 200-, 50-, and 10- denominations (nominal value - EUR 396,910), and for 493 counterfeit banknotes of Croatian kuna in 1,000-kuna denomination (nominal value - HRK 493,000), but they were seized in January 2021 in a successful police action before being put into circulation and were therefore not included in this Report.

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