No. 35 July 2017

The Six Day War: INSIDE Rethinking the 50 Years On Six Day War

BESA Center experts consider the war, its origin, ’s Inelegant historic impact, and lingering consequences. Options in Judea They see the jubilee as an opportunity for and Samaria strategic retrospection and truth-telling, not Strategic Challenges hand-wringing and anguish. in the Eastern Mediterranean

Prime Minister Netanyahu Marks 40 Years of Likud Rule

130 New Publications THE SIX DAY WAR: 50 YEARS ON Strategic Retrospection and Truth-Telling

BESA Center associates participated in numerous public forums and international media discussions surrounding the fiftieth anniversary in June of the Six Day War. They also penned a dozen critical examinations of the war and its legacy. They see the jubilee as an opportunity for strategic retrospection and truth-telling, not hand-wringing and self-flagellation.

Arab-Israeli confrontation a foregone 1967 defeat is but a dim memory – one 2 conclusion, according to Karsh. “The more historical injustice that must be war was a direct corollary of pan- redressed by any means necessary – Arabism’s delusions of grandeur, makes the prospects of Arab-Israeli triggered by the foremost champion reconciliation as remote as ever. of this ideology (President Nasser of Egypt) and directed against its foremost Dr. Gabriel Glickman, a California- nemesis. It was the second all-out based researcher, penned an essay attempt in a generation to abort the which warns that the Arabs and their Jewish national revival, and it ended in Western partisans have rewritten the an even greater ignominy than its 1948 conflict’s narrative, with the aggressors precursor.” turned into hapless victims and defenders turned into aggressors. “This Prof. Efraim Karsh While militant pan-Arabism is unlikely time,” he says, “the loser is writing the to regain its pre-1967 dominance in the history.” Prof. Efraim Karsh, Dr. Gabriel Glickman, foreseeable future due to the ravages of Prof. Efraim Inbar, Maj. Gen. (res.) the recent Arab upheavals, Karsh warns “The degree to which Western Gershon Hacohen, Dr. Max Singer, that the advent of a new generation of historiography has increasingly and Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror Palestinians and Arabs for whom the portrayed Israel’s preemptive strike have published a series of studies against Egypt as an act of aggression that rethink the Six Day War and its rather than of self-defense leaves one implications. wondering why Western scholars cannot accept that a proud and Prof. Efraim Karsh, director of the BESA independent Arab leader (Nasser) was Center and editor of the Middle East capable of making grand moves on the Quarterly, says that “it has long been global stage… It is not the job of the conventional wisdom to view the June historian to play the role of psychologist 1967 war as an accidental conflagration and attempt to substitute victimhood that neither Arabs nor Israelis desired, for malignant incompetence and yet none were able to prevent. This shortsightedness.” could not be further from the truth. It was an inevitable conflict.” Prof. Efraim Inbar, writes about the relative costs and benefits to Israel of The total Arab rejection of Jewish the war, taking a fifty-year retrospective. Dr. Gabriel Glickman statehood made another all-out Specifically, he considers the pros and cons of retaining the territories gained The Palestinian community sees in the war. He concludes his detailed peace with Israel as defeat in their examination with the assertion that 100-year struggle, Singer explains. Israel’s control of the Golan Heights and Continued Israeli occupation is one of the has many advantages that the Palestinians’ best weapons against outweigh the attendant costs of holding Israel, and they will not forgo this while onto these territories. their war to eliminate Israel continues.

“While Israel can agree that the West Since the Palestinians are forcing Israel Bank’s densely populated areas where Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen to continue with a long-term retention most of the Palestinian population lives of the territories, Singer says that the could become an independent political Countering this, General Hacohen Jewish state should act to reduce entity or be annexed to Jordan as part of asserts that the Six Day War was a one- the moral and other costs of that a bilateral peace agreement, maintaining time event with unique circumstances occupation, and even more importantly, military control over the area west of the that will not recur. He details significant stop telling the world that it could Jordan River is essential for its national military-strategic changes that occurred choose to end the occupation! “The security (and for Jordanian security for in the region in the past 50 years, which occupation, like the need for military that matter). Unfortunately, there is no make a re-conquering of the West Bank strength and to absorb casualties, room for a territorial compromise on both extremely difficult and unlikely. is apparently part of the price Israel 3 the Golan Heights. Losing this territory must pay to live in the region. Maturity would entail grave security threats, and “If Israel leaves the West Bank, the area means being able to go forward with no there is nothing can offer to offset will turn into Gaza, and it will take years solution in sight.” this loss". to reestablish control of Palestinian urban centers in the West Bank, not six days. The circumstances of the Six Day War are not applicable to 2017, and should not be viewed as such.”

Dr. Max Singer writes that Israel’s “dilemma” regarding the disposition of the territories has been overdramatized. “Israel is not facing a dilemma about how much, if any, land to give up from the West Bank, because the Palestinians will not agree to take land and cannot be forced to do so.”

Prof. Efraim Inbar Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror

Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror warns that Israel’s astounding victory has penned a 50-page study which in 1967 is often seen by proponents of considers what he calls “Israel’s withdrawal from the West Bank as proof inelegant options in Judea and that the Jewish state can easily defend Samaria,” i.e., withdrawal, annexation, itself from behind the Green Line. Since and conflict management. This study is Israel won the war from this starting detailed in the following article. point, it is argued, the IDF will readily be able to do so again if necessary. Therefore, no strategic impediment exists to relinquishing military control ‏Dr. Max Singer of these territories. THE SIX DAY WAR: 50 YEARS ON Israel’s Inelegant Options in Judea and Samaria: Withdrawal, Annexation, and Conflict Management

Zeev Elkin, Yossi Beilin, and Prof. Ruth Gavison Debate General Amidror’s New Study

The author rejects unilateral initiatives on Israel’s part – whether unilateral annexation of all or part of the West Bank, or unilateral withdrawals from all or parts of the territory. “When on the edge of the cliff, standing still is preferable to stepping forward.” Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror

To mark the jubilee of the Six Day War, right or wrong, but of electing to assume In June, the center held a symposium 4 the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic one set of risks over the other.” to discuss General Amidror’s study, Studies published a major study by Maj. with commentators from a range of Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror that takes “The truth is that no good solutions perspectives, including the Minister a fresh look at Israel’s options in Judea exist. It is therefore critical that a of Affairs and Minister of and Samaria and seeks to chart a path significant majority of Israelis – as large Environmental Protection Zeev Elkin MK forward that will secure its national a consensus as possible – unite behind (Likud), former deputy foreign minister security while leaving the door open to whatever approach is opted for by Israel’s Dr. Yossi Beilin, (Labor), and human rights peace. leadership, to prevent a schism in the and law professor Ruth Gavison. The country.” discussion was moderated by Ari Shavit, Amidror, who was national security former Haaretz columnist. advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu The 50-page study by General Amidror, and director of the Intelligence Analysis entitled “Israel’s Inelegant Options Minister Elkin argued that the Division in Military Intelligence, is today in Judea and Samaria: Withdrawal, demographic challenges highlighted the Anne and Greg Rosshandler Senior Annexation, and Conflict Management” by General Amidror have led to a Fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for is available online in English, Hebrew and change in right-wing policy. “Even Strategic Studies. Arabic at www.besacenter.org Bayit Yehudi leader isn’t advocating for the extension of full Israeli He examines the two basic approaches sovereignty over the entire Judea and to resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Samaria territory,” he noted. “But the conflict: Establishment of a Palestinian Israeli demand for rights in the historic state alongside Israel, and application of Land of Israel means that there isn’t room Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank for full-fledged Palestinian rights in this and the creation of a bi-national state (in area. We are in a conflict of rights, and I practice). Amidror finds both approaches want to win.” to be flawed, posing significant challenges to Israel's future. Dr. Beilin spoke wistfully about the aborted agreement between “Alas, the political Right has no sound Shimon Peres and King Hussein of response to the demographic argument Jordan, which was scuttled by Prime against annexation, while the Left has Minister Yitzhak Shamir. “That might have no serious solution to the security threat been a solution that didn’t involve total stemming from Palestinian statehood. Palestinian statehood, and would have Therefore, Israel must choose the lesser removed the demographic danger from evil. Israel’s choices are not a matter of Israel. It is this demographic danger that Ari Shavit, Minister Zeev Elkin, Dr. Yossi Beilin, and Prof. Ruth Gavison (l. to r.)

is my main concern, not the moral issues same time, any move towards formal “The only politically feasible way to act of occupation,” Beilin said. “I want to annexation will wreck the ability of Israel on this readiness in the future – which 5 leave a Jewish and democratic state for to improve relations with the important is unrealistic at present – is by limiting my grandchildren.” Sunni states, and might even lead to Israeli building to the settlement blocs (or another bloody intifada.” to the existing boundaries of settlements, Prof. Gavison decried the lack of as was recently agreed between leadership in the Palestinian Authority, “Nevertheless, the principled question of Israel and the Trump administration), and called for the building of a national how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict ought thus reserving the remaining area for consensus in Israel towards a long-term to be resolved should be discussed, to discussion at a time when there might be vision for resolving the conflict. shape today's policies in accordance with a different Palestinian leadership.” the preferred solution of the future.” General Amidror echoed Gavison’s Amidror utterly rejects the suggestions call for consensus-building in Israel. “Therefore, Palestinian statehood is that Israel undertake unilateral initiatives “Inevitably, this will mean the not the real question currently before – whether unilateral annexation of all relinquishing by the Israeli right of some decision-makers. Rather, the question is or part of the West Bank, or unilateral of its ideological-geographical dreams, whether Israel aspires to leave open the withdrawals from all or parts of the and concessions from the Israeli left territory. Unilateral moves, he says, would possibility of future negotiations towards about the character of the Jewish state. entail a very high domestic price for a two-state solution, or whether it will act Or, to put it another way: If the left wants Israel, while earning Israel very few gains towards closing this option by whether the right to forgo some of the Land of in diplomatic and defense terms. Israel in order to protect the Jewish expanding isolated settlements and character of Israel, the left will also have entering an unstoppable process towards “Israel must not jeopardize its existence to accept that the Jewish character of a bi-national state situation.” by embarking on rash unilateral Israel is going to be more traditional. initiatives that would radically worsen That is the double-edged sword of the Amidror argued that at the center of its security situation - just to please ‘demographic’ argument.” Jewish society in Israel there is a large proponents of ‘forward progress’ at any majority, which desires a solution and cost. This risk is not worth taking. Amidror also argued that the conditions is quite ready to compromise on its that pertain in the Middle East today historic rights over vast areas of the Land “Israel should not make any unilateral militate against dramatic Israeli moves. of Israel. “But it will do so only in return moves at all, but rather manage the for an agreement that will ensure the conflict until conditions improve for a “The Arab world is in a state of violent security and peace of the country; and in renewed negotiating effort at an agreed- chaos, which requires effective and a situation where the Palestinian minority upon solution. When on the edge of complete Israeli control of the West Bank does not grow beyond its current share the cliff, standing still is preferable to for what may be a very long time. At the of the population.” stepping forward.” NEW PUBLICATION Fighting Small Wars

A team of Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies experts has spent the past year studying IDF fighting doctrine in situations of long-term grinding warfare against enemies embedded within civilian populations.

The project was led by Brig. Gen. (res.) Moni Chorev and Prof. Efraim Inbar, in cooperation with the IDF Military Doctrine Department. Participating were Dr. Eitan Shamir, Prof. Hillel Frisch, Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, Mr. Uzi Rubin, and Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen.

The deliberations involved many senior IDF officers including Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon, head of the operations branch in the IDF General Staff.

This led to the publication in February of six essays in book form (BESA Middle East Security and Policy Studies No. 128, Hebrew) that argue for doctrinal changes in the IDF approach to Prof. Efraim Inbar, IDF Operations Branch head Maj. Gen. fighting and Hezbollah, Nitzan Alon, and Prof. Hillel Frisch. 6 with an emphasis on attrition and the infliction of cost, not decisive warfare.

Associates of the BESA Center and their colleagues in the IDF Military Doctrine Department on the Bar-Ilan University campus, after one of their many meetings. NEW BOOK BY DR. EITAN SHAMIR Insurgencies and Counterinsurgencies: National Styles and Strategic Cultures

BESA Center research to a particular pattern of fighting and, if so, whether this is associate Dr. Eitan Shamir dictated by constants such as geography and climate, or by has co-edited a new book the available options, or else whether there exists a particular (with Beatrice Heuser, "strategic culture" or "national style". Their findings show that Cambridge University Press, 'national style' is not eternal but can undergo fundamental 2017) which considers the transformations. extent to which national H.R. McMaster, national security advisor to US President Trump, mentalities, or "ways of war", wrote an introduction to Shamir’s book. “This is an important are responsible for "national book at a critical time… Those charged with crafting strategic styles" of insurgency and response to complex problems such as the political and . humanitarian catastrophe in the The book is based on a Greater Middle East might start conference held at the with the conclusions that Heuser Begin-Sadat Center for and Shamir draw from these Strategic Studies a few years superb essays,” McMaster wrote. Dr. Eitan Shamir ago. Dr. Shamir is a lecturer in the Experts examine the ways of war of particular insurgent political science department at movements, and the standard operational procedures of states Bar-Ilan University. Formerly, he and occupation forces to suppress them. Through case studies was head of the national security ranging from British, American and French counterinsurgency doctrine department in the Israel to the IRA and the Taliban, they show how "national styles" Ministry of Strategic Affairs. evolve, influenced by transnational trends, ideas and practices. 7 They examine whether we can identify a tendency to resort

NEW BOOK BY DR. EFRAT AVIV Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism in Turkey: From Ottoman Rule to AKP

BESA Center research IDF military operations and its influence on the rise of anti- associate Dr. Efrat Aviv Zionism and anti-Semitism from the Second Lebanon War has written a new book in 2006 to Operation Protective Edge in 2014. The book (Routledge 2017) that also analyzes Turkish society's attitude towards Jews in depicts the rise in anti- comparison to other minorities, and looks at how other Semitism in Turkey. minorities examine Jews according to the history of the The book covers the Jewish community in Turkish society and government. history of anti-Semitism Dr. Aviv is a lecturer in the in Turkey from the Department of Middle Eastern Ottoman period to the Studies at Bar-Ilan University, recent strengthening of specializing in Turkish studies, the AKP led by Recep Ottoman history, Turkish Jewry, Tayyip Erdogan. She Islam, Islamic movements in finds that anti-Semitism Turkey, Sufism and Turkish Dr. Efrat Aviv is prevalent in all walks politics. of Turkish society, whether among the nationalist Islamists or the extreme left. Dr. Aviv also analyzes Turkey's criticism of Israel during INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Strategic Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean

In partnership with B'nai B'rith International, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies hosted in February the second annual international conference on Eastern Mediterranean Security and Cooperation.

Bar-Ilan University President Prof. (second from right) presents a gift to the Albanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Ditmir Bushati, alongside Mr. Martin Oliner and Mr. Daniel S. Mariaschin of B’nai B’rith International (l.) and Prof. Efraim Karsh of the BESA Center (r.).

The nations of the Mediterranean Center for Strategic Studies,” said a special emphasis on the common 8 and particularly its eastern basin, B’nai B’rith International President effort to combat terrorism at both the including Israel, are very much a focal Gary P. Saltzman and B’nai B’rith practical and ideological levels. point of current international tensions. International CEO Daniel S. Mariaschin. They also represent a meeting point “The conference provides important Mr. Gideon Sa’ar, former Israeli of civilizations, both historically and insight into refugee issues, regional Minister of Education and Interior culturally. They sit astride some of cooperation, Iranian expansionism and and a former member of the Security the world’s most important trade superpower competition, as well as the Cabinet (Likud), delivered the closing routes and avenues of strategic access economic relationship between eastern address on “Israel’s Challenges in the between Asia and the West. These Mediterranean countries.” Regional Strategic Environment.” He nations continue to face dramatic challenges and dangers, as well as opportunities.

The international conference surveyed the ongoing chaotic conditions in collapsed and failed states in the region; the rise and fall of Islamist forces in littoral lands, specifically Syria and Libya; and the emergence of new alliances, bolstered – among other factors – by energy developments.

Participants examined the ever- changing landscape from several regional and external perspectives. Mr. Ditmir Bushati, Albanian Minister of Foreign Affairs (speaking) alongside Col. (res.) They sought to chart options for Dr. Eran Lerman of the BESA Center who was academic convener of the conference. cooperation and emphasize the need for a new, sophisticated, and multi- Mr. Ditmir Bushati, Albanian Minister laid out a strategy for Israel based on layered security architecture in the of Foreign Affairs, described his cooperation with key regional players, Mediterranean in which Israel can play country's positive role in the eastern yet he expected these states to share an active role. Mediterranean and as a NATO ally, as the burden of dealing with such thorny well as the growing friendship with problems as the need to find new “We are thrilled to partner again on Israel (and Albania's historic attitude paradigms to replace the increasingly this conference with the Begin-Sadat towards the Jewish people). He put problematic “two-state solution.” Dr. Daniel Pipes, President of the Middle East Forum, is confronted by an angry response from the Turkish Ambassador in Israel, Mr. Kemal Okem.

He also joined the criticism aimed insurgency in the periphery), and a Relating to the ongoing Libyan at President Erdoĝan, questioning Libyan result (chaos and disintegration). crisis, Prof. Yehudit Ronen of Bar- 9 whether Turkey can be counted today Ilan University gave a detailed and as a democratic state. Relating to the challenge posed by ISIS tragic description of the country’s and Islamist terrorism, Prof. Boaz Ganor disintegration since the overthrow In a keynote address, Dr. Daniel Pipes, of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya of Qaddafi, emphasizing the lack of president of the Middle East Forum, sharply criticized President Obama’s foresight by the intervening powers offered a comprehensive survey of ineffectual counter-ISIS strategies and and the current struggle between the political developments, largely related surveyed possible options for President "legitimate" government and the forces to the rise of the Islamist threat, in the Trump. These include “more of the of General Hiftar. eight Eastern Mediterranean countries: same,” Russian-style carpet bombing, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Turkey, Syria, boots on the ground, and the more Prof. Efraim Inbar of the BESA Center Lebanon, Egypt and Libya. He also likely "businesslike" strategy of letting reviewed the strategic landscape in noted the rising involvement of Russia the Russians handle the situation – at the Eastern Mediterranean. The US has and China in the region. He sharply a cost to US regional standing. He virtually disappeared, he said; Turkey criticized the gap between President suggested a fifth approach involving is increasingly becoming a revisionist Erdoĝan's immense skill in domestic greater US firepower and "sandals" – power; and Tehran’s regional presence politics and his persistent misreading special forces – on the ground. is growing. It is not clear whether the of the regional and international Greek-Cypriot-Israeli alignment can challenges; and gave Israel high counter the radical Islamist powers, and marks as a master of its own fate. it remains to be seen whether Egypt is ready to join this alignment. In speaking about the ongoing Syrian tragedy, Prof. Eyal Zisser of Konstantinos Bikas, the Ambassador University gave an account of Greece to Israel, tried to explain the of the "miracles" that saved the roots of policy disasters in the region – Assad regime and turned him into in , Syria and Libya – as emanating the "Aleppo Liberator": Obama's from a lack of understanding of local decision not to strike, the Russian societies. He spoke of the importance intervention, and now (perhaps) the of supporting the forces of stability ascension of President Trump. He – Egypt and Jordan – and the role of suggested three possible outcomes Mr. Gideon Sa’ar, former Israeli Minister of Education Greece and Cyprus, working together to the Syrian civil war: a Spanish and Interior and a former member of the Security in five tripartite frameworks alongside outcome (total victory for one Cabinet (Likud) delivering a closing address on “Israel’s Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and the side), an Afghan one (continued Challenges in the Regional Strategic Environment.” Palestinians. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE Strategic Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean

Mr. Martin Oliner, President of the Religious Zionists of America and a leader of B’nai Brig. Gen. (res.) Shaul Chorev, Mr. Alan Schneider (B’nai B’rith International World Center B’Brith International, who generously Jerusalem), Prof. Efraim Inbar, Ambassador Konstantinos Bikas, and Prof. Elena Suponina (l. to r.) supported the conference.

Prof. Elena Suponina of the Russian Dr. Jonathan Spyer of the Interdisciplinary Prof. David Ohana of Ben-Gurion 10 Institute for Strategic Studies described Center Herzliya presented the dramatic University dedicated his presentation Moscow’s role in Syria and Libya, and regional refugee situation. More than 4.8 to the memory of Jacqueline Cahanoff emphasized the high value that today’s million refugees and 6 million IDPs have on the centennial of her birth, and gave Russia (unlike the USSR) accords to its been created, he said, and suggested that a deeply sympathetic survey of her life relationship with Israel. She said that while the Syrian Sunnis have lost the war. and her personal and intellectual role in Moscow was capable of saying "no" to laying the foundation, more than anyone Washington, it does not want to be drawn Dr. Karin von Hippel, director of the else, for the present discourse on Israel's by some Arab players into a "cold war Royal United Services Institute in London, Mediterranean identity. style" adversarial relationship with the US. discussed the impact of the Syrian war and refugee crisis on Europe. Prof. Nissim Calderon of Ben-Gurion Brig. Gen. (res.) Shaul Chorev of University spoke passionately and University presented the findings of the Ambassador Ünal Çeviköz of Turkey pointedly about Cahanoff's legacy and Haifa University/Hudson Institute working spoke emphatically about Ankara’s long her concept of a Levantine/Mediterranean group on Eastern Mediterranean security. tradition of taking in refugees, both in identity, which was not a burden carried He emphasized mutual interests (in the Ottoman era and in modern times because of place or group of origin, but energy and stability) that compel regional (including millions of Turks uprooted in a an opportunity for an enriched concept of and international elements to cooperate. population exchange with Greece in the identity. 1920s). He described the government’s Ambassador Aryeh Mekel of the BESA current efforts to care Center gave an insider's informed (and for the massive Syrian at times, entertaining) view of the population in Turkey, dramatic turn for the better in Israeli- including education. Greek relations, at the governmental He also suggested that and popular levels, which persisted the achievements of throughout a period of political turmoil Operation Euphrates and change as well as of great economic Shield, in effectively difficulties in Greece. creating a safe zone in northern Syria, should serve as a model for the future, arguing that the international Prof. Hillel Frisch, Dr. Jonathan Spyer, Dr. Karin von Hippel and Ambassador Ünal Çeviköz. community had not done enough to help. NEW PUBLICATIONS

Rethinking the Six-Day War Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, and the Are Lone Wolves Really Acting Alone? Prof. Efraim Karsh, Dr. Gabriel New Regional Landscape The Wave of Terror 2008-2015 Glickman and Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum (ed.) Shaul Bartal and Hillel Frisch June 2017 May 2017 May 2017 (Hebrew)

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Qatar: The Limits of Israel’s Inelegant Options in Judea The IDF’s Small Wars Nouveau Riche Diplomacy and Samaria: Withdrawal, Annexation, Prof. Efraim Inbar (ed.) Dr. Gil Feiler and Hayim Zeev and Conflict Management February 2017 (Hebrew) April 2017 Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror April 2017

The Kurds in a North Korea and the The Libyan Tragedy and Its Meaning: Volatile Middle East Middle East The Wages of Indecision Prof. Ofra Bengio Dr. Alon Levkowitz Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman February 2017 January 2017 January 2017 CONFERENCE Prime Minister Netanyahu Marks Likud’s Rise to Power in 1977

In May, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and the Heritage Center in Jerusalem held a conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the Likud party’s rise to power in 1977.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu

The conference studied the many new friends, is also what will lead arguing that today’s Likud party has 12 implications of Likud’s historic Israel to peace,” Netanyahu averred. slid away from the liberal national ascension to government leadership, values (especially regarding civil and and the repercussions ever since in “Our adversaries will sue for peace on human rights, and socioeconomic Israel’s public and media discourse, and reasonable terms only when they know policy) espoused by its founder and social, foreign and defense policy. that Israel is undefeatable and they see former prime minister Menachem us succeeding despite the conflict.” Begin. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu delivered a keynote address on Former foreign and justice minister Other speakers at the conference Israel’s current economic, security and Tzipi Livni MK of the Zionist Union included professors Eytan Gilboa and technological strengths. These have (who started her political career in the Udi Lebel of the Begin-Sadat Center led, he argued, to a highpoint in Israel’s Likud) and Yair Lapid MK, leader of for Strategic Studies; professors diplomatic standing in the world. “Only the party, also spoke at the Gerald Steinberg, Asher Cohen, and the strong are respected, and Israel is conference. Nissim Leon of Bar-Ilan University; and strong in multiple ways. This strength, professors Uri Cohen, Rafi Mann, and which brings us respect and draws-in They each sought to claim the mantle Menachem Mautner of Tel Aviv, Haifa, of the “real Likud” for themselves, and Ariel universities.

Prof. Efraim Karsh (BESA Center director) and Mr. Herzl Makov (Begin Heritage Center director) chaired the conference. Bar-Ilan University President Rabbi Prof. Daniel Hershkowitz introduced the Prime Minister.

Tzipi Livni MK Yair Lapid MK CONFERENCE The Trump Victory: Causes and Implications

Prof. Efraim Inbar, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, Ambassador Zvi Magen, Prof. Hillel Frisch and Prof. Jonathan Rynhold.

Shortly after the US presidential Prof. Eytan Gilboa, one of the most elections last November, the BESA prominent experts on American-Israeli 13 Center held a conference analyzing relations, U.S. policy in the Middle East, the causes and implications of Donald and American politics, has written Trump’s surprise victory. a series of articles charting Trump’s path since the elections. In December, Participating in the “analysis” part he warned that Russia and were of the conference was pollster Prof. likely to test Trump’s leadership and Yitzhak Katz, journalists Ariella Ringel determination. “President-Elect Trump Hoffman of Yediot Ahronot and Boaz has serious decisions to make about Bismuth of Israel Hayom newspapers, the Middle East, including what to do and Prof. Eytan Gilboa of the BESA about Syria, how to tackle the Islamic Prof. Eytan Gilboa Center. State, how to take on Iran, and, of course, how to handle the perennial Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, Israeli-Palestinian problem.” “Trump must fight the forces of Ambassador Zvi Magen, Prof. Hillel violence and terror in the world, Frisch and Prof. Jonathan Rynhold In April, Gilboa urged Trump to joining forces with allies and using looked at the global ramifications of formulate a strategy for responding a variety of military and diplomatic Trump’s election. to the crises in Syria and North Korea. measures.”

Following Trump’s visit in May to the Middle East, Gilboa determined that the President “had achieved most of his goals. Never has a US president been received with so much tribute, praise, appreciation, and admiration by both Muslim and Jewish leaders. Heads of the most important states in the Arab world lauded his friendship, qualities, and strategic aims. Trump completely reversed the attitude of Obama, which verged on hostility, towards both the pro-American Arab states and Israel.” Boaz Bismuth, editor-in-chief of Israel Hayom Ariella Ringel Hoffman, Yediot Ahronot LECTURES

Prof. P. R. Kumaraswamy, of the Prof. Steven David of Johns Hopkins Prof. Jerome A. Chanes, senior Center for West Asian Studies University lectured in May on research fellow at the Center for at Jawaharlal Nehru University “Trump’s Foreign Policy: Why Israelis Jewish Studies, CUNY Graduate in New Delhi, lectured in June will soon be Missing Obama.” Center, lectured in May on “The on “Indo-Israeli Ties: Future Other Arab-Israeli Conflict: Seventy Trajectories.” Years of US-Israel Relations.”

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Col. (res.) Jacques Neria, former Dr. Meena Singh Roy, research Mr. Greg Sheridan, foreign editor of diplomatic advisor to Prime fellow and coordinator of the West The Australian, lectured in February Minister Rabin, lectured in April on Asia Centre, Institute for Defence on “Australia: A Strategic Middle “Rabin’s Route to Oslo.” Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in New Power.” Delhi, lectured in March on “India- Iran Relations in the 21st Century: Adapting to New Realities.”

Commander (ret.) David Levy, Mr. Ilya Meyer, former deputy Prof. Pan Guang, Vice Chairman of former Director for Theater Security chair of the West Sweden branch the Shanghai Center for International Cooperation for US Naval Forces of the Sweden-Israel Friendship Studies and Vice President of the and the US Navy Association, lectured in December Chinese Association of Middle East Attaché in Tunis, lectured in January on “Sweden-Israel Relations: Where Studies, lectured in December on on “How the US Crafted the Anti-ISIS Fiction Meets Reality.” “China’s Rising Role in a Changing Coalition.” Middle East Since 2011.” Prof. Umet Uzer of Istanbul Technical University and Mr. Gareth Jenkins of the Silk Road Studies Program at Central Asia-Caucasus Institute lectured in January on “Whither Turkey?” Dr. Shashi Jayakumar (Singapore and Its Security Future), Mr. Benjamin Ang (Cybersecurity Policy Issues of the Internet of Things in Smart Cities), Dr. Terri-Anne Teo (Multiculturalism and National Security), Dr. Bernard Loo (The Transformation of the National Security Landscape for Singapore), and Dr. Michael Raska (Military Innovation Trajectories: China, Russia, and the US), all of the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS), lectured in November on “The Strategic Environment of Singapore.” 15

Strategic

Prof. Andreas Theophanous, President of the Consultation Cyprus Center for European and International Mr. Yair Lapid MK, leader of the Yesh Affairs at the University of Nicosia (pictured), Atid Party, met with BESA Center Mr. Nicholas Papadopoulos MP of the Cyprus researchers in December, along with Democratic Party, and Dr. Theodoros Tsakiris, advisor to the President of the Cyprus his colleague MK (former Democratic Party, lectured in January on “The head of the GSS), for a three-hour Strategic Environment of Cyprus.” discussion of Israel’s diplomatic challenges in the wake of UNSC 2334. Yesh Atid Party leader Yair Lapid

Dr. Max Singer, a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, lectured in November on “History’s March and Islamism’s Hopeless Goal.” BESA Center associates Frisch, Rubin, Shamir, Inbar, Gilboa, Rynhold, Hacohen, Teitelbaum, Lerman, and center vice chairman Saul Koschitzky, meet with MKs Lapid and Peri (who stand astride Prof. Inbar at center). BESA CENTER PERSPECTIVES PAPERS

No. 515 sovereignty is the key, not an obstacle, to No. 504 Modi's Visit to Jerusalem peace and security in the city. General John Allen’s Plan is Dangerous July 1, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar June 21, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon The burgeoning India-Israel relationship No. 509 Hacohen is based on similar strategic agendas and From Osirak to Yongbyon The Allen Plan, an Obama-era proposal is buttressed by extensive defense ties. June 26, 2017 | Dr. Alon Levkowitz that calls for a Palestinian state on North Korea is moving forward with its the 1967 borders with foreign forces No. 514 development of an ICBM that can carry guaranteeing security, is antithetical to Shalom, Modi! a nuclear warhead. Will Pyongyang test the Israeli ethos of self-defense and self- June 30, 2017 | Sarosh Bana it, challenging Washington to strike its preservation. Start-ups and defense are high on the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon? Indian prime minister's agenda as he No. 503 visits Israel. No. 508 Gaza’s Humanitarian Crisis is Pay for Gazan Electricity? Clarifying the June 20, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch No. 513 “Israeli Interest” Indicators such as life expectancy, growth The Qatar Crisis and China June 25, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon in imports and demand for electricity June 29, 2017 | Roie Yellinek Hacohen suggest that the Gazan standard of China, the second-largest economy in the Israel must keep Gaza stable and living is rising, not declining. If a genuine humanitarian crisis were to loom, the world, has an interest in the achievement maintain the separation between the solution would be simple: disarm Hamas of a resolution to the Gulf crisis between West Bank-based Palestinian Authority and divert its considerable expenditures Qatar and other Sunni Muslim countries. and Gaza-based Hamas. Time to put an on terrorism for civilian purposes. end to the extortion the enemy practices.

16 No. 512 No. 502 The Proposed Israeli Academic Code is a No. 507 Hamas: Striking the Right Balance Mistake (Hebrew) Kurdistan: From Referendum to the June 28, 2017 | Dr. Udi Lebel Road to Independence June 19, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror The code of academic ethics for Israeli June 24, 2017 | Dr. Edy Cohen It might be tempting for Israel to take universities proposed by the Ministry A September referendum will decide of Education suggests a right-wing advantage of economic pressures to whether autonomous Kurdistan should compel Hamas to rein in its military inferiority complex. The path to disengage from Iraq and become an overcoming the dominance of the expenditures – but the less Hamas feels independent state or remain within the it has to lose, the more combustible Gaza political left in academia is establishment Iraqi state. of new and more pluralistic institutions. becomes.

No. 506 No. 511 No. 501 Decentralization: The Key to Indo-Israeli A Sad Decision That Might Haunt Us All Gaza in the Dark is Not So Terrible Ties June 28, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman June 18, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar June 23, 2017 | Prof. P. R. Kumaraswamy Government decisions that snub the non- Hamas wants Israel to supply it with Orthodox denominations of the Jewish By making the most of India’s federal electricity “or else”, but there is no reason faith are not only a matter of identity structure, Israel has established a strong why Israel should submit to Hamas and morality. They have a direct bearing presence in various states in India and extortion. It is not Israel’s obligation to on national security, since one of the thereby moved bilateral relations from satisfy the needs of a population that foundational aspects of Israel’s strategy elite political discourse to the economic continues, through its ongoing support of survival in a hostile environment is the needs of India’s rural population. of Hamas, to pursue Israel’s destruction. organized support of American Jewry. No. 505 No. 500 No. 510 The EastMed Pipeline Could Be a Giant The Emerging Trump Doctrine of On the Future of Jerusalem Step towards Enhancing Regional Strategic Savvy June 27, 2017 | David M. Weinberg Security June 17, 2017 | Jiri Valenta and Leni A close look at the situation in eastern June 22, 2017 | George N. Tzogopoulos Friedman Valenta Jerusalem reveals contradictory The would be expensive and difficult, but A discussion of US leaders’ failed movements: radical Islamicization vs. it is feasible. Easier and less expensive strategies in several wars, of Trump’s closer integration with Jewish Jerusalem. solutions are also being considered, but team of generals, and of the emerging Despite the complicated circumstances, security considerations work in EastMed’s Trump doctrine, which is here termed united Jerusalem under exclusive Israeli favor. “strategic savvy”. BESA CENTER PERSPECTIVES PAPERS

No. 499 Trump’s core task is to pursue “escalation Muslim and Jewish leaders. Trump Turkey’s Failed Grand Design for the dominance” without simultaneously completely reversed the attitude of Middle East exposing the US or its allies to grievous Obama, which verged on hostility, June 16, 2017 | Burak Bekdil attack. towards both the pro-American Arab The siege of Qatar is sending messages states and Israel. on many wavelengths, some intended for No. 493 Turkey. Sadly, Erdoğan is too ideologically Prospects for a Near East Treaty No. 487 blind to see that Turkey is standing on Organization The Six Day War Was a One-Time Event the wrong corner at the wrong moment. June 10, 2017 | Jose V. Ciprut June 5, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon NETO could embrace the span between Hacohen No. 498 the Eastern Mediterranean (including The events of the Six-Day War of 1967 are When Palestinians are Hopeless, Terror Israel), the Red Sea, and the edge of the often used by proponents of withdrawal Declines; When Hopeful, Terrorism Indian Ocean, to confront radical Islam. from the West Bank as proof that Israel Increases can defend itself from behind the “green June 15, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch No. 492 line.” However, this argument ignores the military-strategic changes in the region The widespread belief that Palestinian The Green Line (Hebrew) over the past 50 years. hopelessness feeds terrorism and the June 9, 2017 | Gershon Hacohen prospects for peace decrease it has always The desire for “homelands” in Judea No. 486 been false. In fact, the opposite is true. and Samaria goes far beyond Religious The Summit for the Establishment of Zionism. No. 497 the Silk Road Forum June 4, 2017 | Roie Yellinek The Qatar Crisis: Signs of Weakness No. 491 Israel was not included in the May June 14, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Turkey: NATO’s Odd One Out 17 Amidror summit on the Chinese initiative to June 9, 2017 | Burak Bekdil The decision by some Persian Gulf and connect Europe, the Middle East, Africa, NATO’s deepening “Turkey problem” Arab nations to cut diplomatic ties with and Asia, but is nevertheless very much is contained in the country’s Qatar is indicative of the deep crisis in the picture. Islamist ideology, conspicuous “un- brewing in the region over the lack of real likemindedness”, and democratic Sunni leadership. No. 485 anomalies. Assad Is Bad News No. 496 June 3, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar No. 490 China, Europe, and the US: Are Changes The survival of the Assad regime is a Coming to the World Order? Israel Upgrades Its Asia Policy victory for Iran – the main source of June 13, 2017 | Roie Yellinek June 8, 2017 | Dr. Alon Levkowitz trouble in the Middle East and Israel’s China has a vision of joining forces with Israel is upgrading its economic relations arch-enemy. Expressing support Europe to counterbalance the US, and with Asia by negotiating free trade for the Assad regime is also morally President Trump’s poor relations with agreements with China, South Korea, reprehensible. Europe made this vision more plausible. Vietnam, and India. No. 484 No. 495 No. 489 The Farhoud Remembered The “Game of Camps” Revisited: Why Rewriting the Six Day War June 2, 2017 | Dr. Edy Cohen Qatar? Why Now? June 6, 2017 | Dr. Gabriel Glickman Seventy-six years after the mass massacre June 12, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman Descriptions of the Six Day War’s origin of the Baghdad Jews, Palestinian The Qataris have been playing a are often distorted and taken out of leadership still supports an anti-Israel dangerous game for years. They have context by politicized historians and and anti-Jewish campaign of racial and provocatively supported the Muslim commentators to misrepresent Israel as political incitement. Brotherhood and actively promoted the aggressor in the conflict. the destabilization of existing regimes, No. 483 using huge sums of money as well as the No. 488 Trump’s Air Strike on al-Tanf: No to the pernicious influence of Al Jazeera TV. In the Aftermath of Trump’s Visit to the Shiite Crescent Middle East June 1, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch No. 494 June 6, 2017 | Prof. Eytan Gilboa The US is signaling that it will not Trump Diplomacy: Settling North Korea Never has a US president been countenance the reemergence of an “With Gas and With Bomb”? received with so much tribute, praise, Iranian-controlled Shiite crescent from June 11, 2017 | Louis Rene Beres appreciation, and admiration by both Teheran to Beirut.

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No. 482 No. 475 No. 469 : Blatantly Ignoring Danger Strategic Consensus: DOA in 1981; Why Should We Give Up Our Nuclear May 31, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Resurrected in 2017? Weapons? Pyongyang’s Perspective Hacohen May 24, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman May 18, 2017 | Dr. Alon Levkowitz Former PM Ehud Barak’s arguments Key regional players are now more open Pyongyang should take into account in favor of withdrawal from Judea and than ever to an informal US-led alliance that Beijing might have to reevaluate its Samaria undercut Israel’s security and against their common enemies: Iran North Korean policy in order to prevent are a departure from the ’ and radical Sunni versions of Islamist an escalation in the region under Trump’s security vision. totalitarianism. new administration. No. 481 Donald Trump: The View from Jerusalem No. 474 No. 468 May 30, 2017 | Prof. Eytan Gilboa Turkey’s Rants, Raves, and Ramifications Vietnam, an Emerging Partner in Israel’s Trump’s first 100 days have yet to provide May 23, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov ‘Asia Pivot’ Policy a clear indication of US policy and how Amidror May 17, 2017 | Alvite Ningthoujam he believes he can achieve an Israel- Erdoğan attacks Israel as part of a Turkish While cooperation between Israel and Palestinian deal. effort to gain hearts and minds in Arab Vietnam is largely focused on civilian countries. sectors, defense ties are also growing No. 479 more robust, with Israel getting involved The Over-Dramatization of Israel’s No. 473 in upgrading aging Vietnamese weapons systems and collaborating on weapons “Dilemma” Macron’s Election and the Challenges development. May 28, 2017 | Dr. Max Singer He Faces 18 The occupation, like the need for military May 22, 2017 | Dr. Tsilla Hershco strength and to absorb casualties, is part No. 467 Macron will have to overcome huge of the price Israel has to pay to live here. Why We Are Surprised by Surprises Maturity means being able to go forward challenges – and quickly – if he is to May 16, 2017 | Joshua Teicher with no solution in sight. deliver on his promises of economic reform and his pledges to bridge the There is a structured, persistent failure in deep gaps in French society and politics. intelligence research that scholars have No. 478 either not identified or underestimate: Turkey’s Indigenous Weapons Industry: the assessment of long-term processes A Rover with Rolls-Royce Ambitions No. 472 that develop separately from “objective” May 27, 2017 | Burak Bekdil Nasser’s Legacy on the 50th Anniversary quantitative data. Turkey seeks self-sufficiency in weapons of the 1967 War technology in order to bolster its May 21, 2017 | Dr. Michael Sharnoff No. 466 regional political clout, but there are Nasser’s Egypt showed how a developing technological, financial, and political country with a large population could Reparations for Jews from Arab challenges standing in the way. persevere despite tremendous economic, Countries Should Be an Integral Part of political, and military challenges. Any Peace Agreement No. 477 May 15, 2017 | Dr. Edy Cohen A Border as a Dynamic Space No. 471 No solution for the Palestinian refugee May 26, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon problem is possible so long as justice is The World Did Not Agree to a Nuclear- Hacohen not served for the Jewish refugees from Armed Iran – Not Even in 10 Years Nation, a homeland, a state, and the Arab countries. permanent borders are not necessarily May 20, 2017 | Dr. Max Singer The stated premise of the JCPOA was that congruent. Israel should rethink the No. 465 popular assumption that a homeland and Iran would never build or acquire nuclear political borders must be a perfect fit. weapons – ever. Hamas: Another Failed Palestinian Organization May 14, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch No. 476 No. 470 Mounting evidence suggests that Hamas, Assad’s Survival Is in Israel’s Best The Six-Day War: An Inevitable Conflict viewed as either a terrorist movement Interest May 19, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Karsh May 25, 2017 | Dr. Edy Cohen or as a government, is one more failed The total Arab rejection of Jewish A strong Syrian president with firm Palestinian organization. It Israel should statehood made all-out Arab-Israeli war be patient, as time is on its side. control over the state is a vital interest a foregone conclusion. for Israel. BESA CENTER PERSPECTIVES PAPERS

No. 464 No. 457 world order and improve Israel’s strategic For Hamas, Nothing Has Changed A Holocaust Denier at the White House position. May 11, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon April 30, 2017 | Dr. Edy Cohen Hacohen It is a historical irony that an No. 450 Westerners should resist the temptation unreconstructed Holocaust denier is Trump and the Israelization of to infer too much into recent moves by being welcomed at the White House to American Politics Hamas, including a revised charter and a promote a peace agreement with the April 24, 2017 | Dr. Alex Joffe change of leadership. very national movement that he has Without civic education and new, more accused of culpability for the genocide. centrist leaders, American politics will No. 463 continue to resemble that of Israel, to the The Meeting Between President Trump No. 456 detriment of effective democracy. and President Xi Jinping The Impact of the ISIS Terror Attacks on May 10, 2017 | Roie Yellinek Europe No. 449 Both sides attempted to ease tensions April 30, 2017 | Dr. Tsilla Hershco A Dangerous Malady: Islamophobia- and create a basis for healthy relations. The terrorist assaults have given rise to phobia a discreet security cooperation between April 23, 2017 | Dr. Max Singer No. 462 EU member states and Israel, but Avoiding prejudice against Muslims is The New Hamas Policy Document: have not prompted the EU to change a noble cause, but carried too far, the Same Old Same Old (Mostly) its critical position regarding Israel’s fear of Islamophobia prevents a realistic May 9, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman defensive measures against Palestinian response to Islamism’s attacks on the West. The new Hamas policy document makes terror. clear that the Palestinian state – to be No. 448 achieved piecemeal if necessary – is to No. 455 The Turkish Referendum: A Turning 19 be created at the expense of the very Mahmoud Abbas Goes to Washington: Point? existence of the Jewish State. What Is at Stake? April 20, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar April 27, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman Erdoğan may use his increased power No. 460 There seems to be a better chance of to pursue an adventurist foreign policy Turkey: Directionless and Friendless drawing the PA into peace talks when it rooted in his Islamist and neo-Ottoman May 7, 2017 | Burak Bekdil realizes that its traditional patrons in the impulses. Optimists thought Turkish President Arab world, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s inflammatory, once again basking in the sunshine of No. 447 anti-Western pre-referendum rhetoric American strategic support. The Korean Peninsula Is Waiting for was just election talk that would Trump disappear after the ballots were counted, but that was a vain hope. No. 452 April 19, 2017 | Dr. Alon Levkowitz The Syrian Sarin Attacks of August 2013 President Trump will need to consider not only the current North Korean crisis No. 459 and April 2017 and the immediate military or diplomatic Israel Is Still at War April 26, 2017 | Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham options available for confronting it, but May 4, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar The geopolitical shift suggested by also his long-term goals in the region. Israelis can be proud of their many the recent US military response in impressive achievements, particularly No. 446 the building of a very strong military. Yet Syria marks a desirable turn with acceptance by all its neighbors has not, consequential implications regarding Turkey: Divided We Stand unfortunately, been attained. the ongoing relationships among the US, April 18, 2017 | Burak Bekdil Syria, Russia, and Iran. Erdoğan’s longer-term game plan is to No. 458 ensure that Turkey will continue to elect conservative, nationalist presidents and Keeping All Cards Close to the Vest No. 451 governments after his day is done. May 1, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov President Trump: Formulating Strategy Amidror As He Goes Along No. 443 The US’s decision to strike Syria and the April 25, 2017 | Prof. Eytan Gilboa results of the referendum in Turkey will Trump has decided to fight the forces of Turkey: Europe’s “Angry Bird” have a significant impact on Israel. It violence and terror in the world, joining April 7, 2017 | Burak Bekdil will not be easy to navigate between forces with allies and using a variety of Erdogan continues to fan fears of real these conflicting forces and Middle East military and diplomatic measures. If his or fabricated enemies, with particular realities. strategy succeeds, it could stabilize the emphasis on “Christian crusaders.”

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No. 442 No. 436 No. 430 West Bank Construction Can Help Solve The Inverted Ideological Pyramids of President Trump Wants a Peace Process Too the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Anti-Zionist Jews: The Case of Moshe March 21, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar April 6, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman Zuckermann President Trump’s eagerness might A reasonable program of settlement March 30, 2017 | Evyatar Friesel prove self-defeating. construction is not the root of all evil in The central factor in Zuckermann’s the region. In fact, a peace deal is more thought is a visceral aversion to the No. 429 likely if space is given to the mainstream Zionist idea and its realization. Should Turkey Officially Designate ISIS settler community. a Terrorist Organization? No. 435 March 20, 2017 | Uzay Bulut No. 441 Hizb ut-Tahrir in Turkey Calls for ISIS has used Turkish territory as a transit Israel’s Release of Second Ramallah Restoring the Caliphate route into Syria and Iraq and has placed Lynch Murderer Violates International March 29, 2017 | Uzay Bulut sleeper cells in dozens of Turkish cities, Law so Ankara should designate the group a Violence is not the only means by which April 5, 2017 | Prof. Louis René Beres terrorist organization. Islamist groups and individuals hope The release of Hamas terrorist Haitham Muari is wrongly exculpatory, to expand Islamic influence, establish Islamic governments, and eventually No. 428 legally contrived, and nationally self- Lessons of the 1967 Deterioration destructive. restore the caliphate. March 19, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen No. 434 No. 440 The escalation towards the Six Day War Netanyahu’s China Visit The Burden of the 1967 Victory is a classic case of a limited campaign 20 April 5, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar March 27, 2017 | Roie Yellinek spinning out of control against The only approach that can succeed The visit presents an opportunity for expectations. in Israel’s current conflicts is a patient, Israel to play a more prominent role on attritional, repetitive use of force. Israelis the international scene. No. 427 should take comfort that time is on President Trump, North Korea, and Israel’s side. No. 433 Israel’s Nuclear Strategy Palestinians and the Balfour March 16, 2017 | Prof. Louis René Beres No. 439 Declaration at 100: Resisting the Past There are important spillover The Fight for Zion March 26, 2017 | Dr. Alex Joffe implications to be considered regarding April 4, 2017 | Asaf Romirowsky Honor, internationalization, symbolism, a Trump confrontation with a nuclear As the BDS movement grows in and playing on Western guilt shape North Korea, specifically with reference popularity and attracts more Jewish the Palestinian culture of denial, which to the Middle East and Israel’s nuclear advocates, the gap is growing even impedes progress towards either a stable strategy. wider between American Jewry and Palestinian state or peace with Israel. Israel. No. 425 No. 432 Becoming Part of Jordan and Egypt: A No. 438 Are Israeli Raids on Syrian Targets Palestinian Economic Imperative Europe: It’s Decision Time on Turkey Legal? March 15, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch April 3, 2017 | Dr. Efrat Aviv March 23, 2017 | Prof. Louis René Beres A two-state solution would lead, not As the gaps widen between Turkey and to an economy of peace, but to an Given Syria’s active and unambiguous Europe, it might be better for both sides economy of violence as lobby groups if Europe made up its mind about Turkish complicity with Hezbollah, Israel has an in both Israel and Jordan shut out the admission to the EU. obligation to prevent and/or mitigate Palestinian state’s exports. Syrian terrorist crimes. No. 437 No. 424 Arrow Intercepts a Syrian Missile: No. 431 Russian Air Defense Architecture … for Technological, Operational, and Turkey: A Sunni Iran in the Making? NATO Member Turkey? Political Aspects March 22, 2017 | Burak Bekdil March 14, 2017 | Burak Bekdil April 2, 2017 | Uzi Rubin The rising tide of an aggressive blend If the Turks place a Russian air defense Israel’s missile shield has reaching of nationalism and Islamism might be system on their soil, they will no longer maturity, as demonstrated by prompting Ankara to pursue its own have access to the NATO satellite signals destruction of a target never envisaged WMDs, and its preference appears to be critical for that very defense system to be during its design. long-range missiles. useful. BESA CENTER PERSPECTIVES PAPERS

No. 423 No. 418 change of government in the US, but Why Did Islamic State Choose to Decoding Flynn-gate: Russia, the it is Israel’s interest to approach the Threaten China at This Time? Middle East, and the US Elections new administration with a degree of March 12, 2017 | Roie Yellinek March 6, 2017 | Jiri Valenta and Leni restraint. IS claims to offer hope and refuge to the Friedman Valenta Uyghur Muslims, who are subject to a The ongoing witch-hunt is emblematic No. 412 campaign by the central government of an unprecedented political power Trump Has Fans in Israel in Beijing, and thereby to achieve two struggle in the US that reflects widely February 13, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar divergent policies toward Russia, the major goals: recruiting new volunteers After eight years of a frosty relationship Middle East, and Ukraine. and attracting further attention. with the US Commander in Chief, many Israelis cautiously welcome the advent No. 417 No. 422 of Donald Trump. How Likely Is an Irrational US Israel Must Choose: Enforce the Law or Presidential Order to Use Nuclear No. 411 Lose the Negev? Weapons? Know Thine Enemy: From GWOT to March 9, 2017 | Ariel Ben Solomon March 5, 2017 | Prof. Louis René Beres CVE to DIT? Radical Arab nationalists and the Islamic President Trump could refuse to follow February 12, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Movement are infiltrating and co-opting through on deterrent threats, thereby the Bedouin conflict as a tool against allowing assorted Russian aggressions – Lerman the state. including those that might involve Israel. The Trump administration is reportedly planning to scrap the conceptual framework of Obama’s “CVE” – No. 421 No. 416 Countering Violent Extremism – and Trade Insights, Not Barbs Myth: American Ties to Israel Harm US focus more explicitly on the Islamist 21 Interests in the Muslim Middle East March 8, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov threat, but it remains to be seen just Amidror March 1, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch how he defines that threat. The failures in Operation Protective US exports to the region have grown, Edge in Gaza in 2014 illustrate that in despite Israel’s “offenses” against Hezbollah and Hamas. No. 410 war, nothing is as important as the Myth: Israel Is the Largest Beneficiary proper division of roles. The IDF should of US Military Aid stay out of politics, and the cabinet No. 415 February 10, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch should refrain from tactical planning Iran Is Progressing Towards Nuclear Weapons Via North Korea Israel receives only a small fraction of February 28, 2017 | Lt. Col. (ret.) Dr. American military aid, and most of that No. 420 was spent in the US to the benefit of the The Centenary of the Balfour Refael Ofek and Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham American economy. Declaration North Korea is likely assisting in the March 7, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon upgrading of Iranian nuclear and No. 409 Hacohen strategic capacities. The Destruction of Amona: The Day Israeli Jews should seek to return to the After premises underlying the Declaration – No. 414 February 9, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) premises that were taken for granted Tread Carefully with the New US Gershon Hacohen at the time by the international Administration The State of Israel is approaching community, but that have since been February 16, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) the crossroads of a crucial decision obscured. Yaakov Amidror regarding its policy on the future of The Middle East is not Washington’s Judea, Samaria, and Jerusalem. No. 419 sole focus and Israel must preserve the War: The School of Life bipartisan support it enjoys. No. 408 March 7, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Trump, China, and the Middle East Hacohen No. 413 February 7, 2017 | Roie Yellinek The potential for public panic over Curb Your Enthusiasm About the The Middle East, including Israel, could the tunnel threat is greater than we Trump Administration nevertheless be drawn into the conflict think. It is unreasonable to expect a February 15, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran as a confrontation zone between the perfect response for every threat during Lerman superpowers due to the region’s natural wartime. One cannot blame Israelis for their resources, intersecting sea routes, and sense of euphoria following the overall geostrategic importance.

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No. 407 in Syria call for a more interventionist Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem Trump, the Mideast Conflict, and the and publicly declared Israeli strategy will remove the air of delusional Jordanian Option in support of Syria’s rebels to balance unreality surrounding all aspects of the February 6, 2017 | Prof. Hillel against Iran and its allies. Jerusalem question, and modify what the Frisch and Yitzhak Sokoloff Palestinians should legitimately expect to Instead of fixating on an independent No. 401 achieve at the negotiating table. Palestinian state, the new US A Two-State Solution? Just Not administration should look east to the According to the Clinton Parameters No. 396 Hashemite Kingdom as a stabilizing January 25, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) The Two-State Solution: A Greater Threat influence on Palestinian politics. Gershon Hacohen to Palestinians than to Israel It is time to reconsider ’s January 17, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch No. 406 approach, which stressed the importance Leftists, right-wingers, conservatives and War Is War of the preservation and development of liberals all tend to assume that two states February 2, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Area C in Judea and Samaria under Israeli would naturally be in the Palestinians’ Gershon Hacohen control as a prerequisite for defensible interest. Think again. The prudence with which the 2014 Gaza borders. campaign was waged deserves the No. 395 public’s full confidence. No. 400 Out with the Old, In with the New Guide for the Diplomatically Perplexed: January 16, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov No. 405 Trump 1.0 Amidror January 24, 2017 | Prof. Gerald M. Cybersecurity: Recommendations for President Barack Obama has eroded the Steinberg President Trump, Implications for Israel US’s superpower status and is leaving 22 February 1, 2017 | Col. (res.) Shai Shabtai Diplomatic deal-making requires mastery behind a far more dangerous world Israel should consider a national program of four basic elements: integration of than the one he inherited. A Trump to strengthen identity authentication diplomacy with the credible threat of administration gives Israel reason to be mechanisms, a nationwide “protective force; the rewarding of friends and the optimistic. umbrella,” a national awareness punishing of enemies; a diplomatic focus campaign, and the transfer of government on interests rather than emotions; and a infrastructure to external cloud services. refusal to condescend to the citizens who No. 394 will be affected. France’s Counterproductive “Peace Initiative” No. 404 January 13, 2017 | Dr. Tsilla Hershco The Wisdom of Hindsight No. 399 January 31, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Sanctioning the Syrians The French “peace initiative” is dangerous Amidror January 23, 2017 | Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany to both Israeli and Palestinian security, and conveys the harmful message that The only advantage the state comptroller Shoham obstructionism, violence and incitement has over the subjects of his audits is the The recent US sanctions against 18 senior are effective policy tools. perspective gained by hindsight. This may Syrian officers for chemical weapons (CW) prevent him from walking a real mile in employment seem to represent little decision-makers’ shoes. more than a last-ditch compensation No. 393 for the hands-off record of the outgoing A Soldier, Not a “Child” No. 403 Obama administration. January 9, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon A Truth-Telling Strategy to Advance Hacohen Israeli-Palestinian Peace No. 398 When we ask young men and women to January 29, 2017 | Dr. Max Singer Jerusalem is the Center of Gravity give everything they have and more for Washington should move to a truth- January 19, 2017 | Prof. Efraim Inbar the sake of their country and their people, telling strategy to dismantle the structure Jerusalem carries great symbolic and we cannot at the same time see them as of false views that slander Israel and stand strategic value for Israel, and Israeli kids. in the way of peace. control of the city must be protected. No. 392 No. 402 No. 397 Kerry’s Misreading of Reality Should Israel Maintain Its Policy of Non- How Moving the US Embassy to January 6, 2017 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Intervention in Syria? Jerusalem Can Improve Prospects for Amidror January 26, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch Peace Kerry displayed his inability to assess the The recent major changes in the balance January 18, 2017 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran region correctly and to put the Palestinian of power in favor of Iran and its allies Lerman issue into perspective. BESA CENTER PERSPECTIVES PAPERS

No. 391 No. 385 Russia’s acquiescence; resolving the human Kerry’s Attack on Israel: A Failed The Red-Med Railway: New Opportunities catastrophe in Syria in partnership with Attempt to Divert Attention from for China, Israel, and the Middle East President Putin; and a Great Bargain with Obama’s Disastrous Foreign Policy December 11, 2016 | Dr. Mordechai Putin on the Ukraine. January 2, 2017 | Prof. Hillel Frisch Chaziza Kerry made a vain attempt to The Chinese “Belt and Road Initiative” No. 379 deflect attention from the Obama including the Red-Med railway will Australia and Israel: Good Guys Should administration’s failed foreign policy. strengthen the Middle East as a critical Stick Together trade route between East and West. November 22, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar No. 390 Australia and Israel should develop a more Iran Wants to Leverage Aleppo into a No. 384 significant strategic partnership. They are Campaign Against the Gulf States and Saudi-Egyptian Tensions: Rifts Within the each small countries that play important Israel “Camp of Stability” Serve Iran’s Interests roles in their respective regions. December 30, 2016 | Yossi Mansharof December 4, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Events in Aleppo are playing an important Lerman No. 378 role in Iran’s strategic plan to establish A dangerous rift has developed in Saudi- Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem: A an overland corridor that would give it Egyptian relations regarding the wars in Great Opportunity for the New President access to the Mediterranean coast. Syria and Yemen. November 21, 2016 | Dr. Max Singer Moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to No. 389 No. 383 Jerusalem would mark a new US strategy UNSCR 2334: A Disservice to the Cause Implications of the Emergent Russian- for pursuing Israeli-Palestinian peace: of Peace Hezbollah Coordination in Syria Telling the truth. December 26, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran December 2, 2016 | Yossi Mansharof 23 Lerman A Russia-Iran-Hezbollah axis, aided by No. 377 UNSCR 2334 undermines the prospects Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani Shiite militias, The US Must Bolster its Global Credibility of Israeli-Palestinian peace and threatens seeks to establish facts on the ground November 16, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) what little regional stability is left. that will scupper any plans of the new US Yaakov Amidror administration to establish an offensive The Trump administration will have to work policy in Syria. No. 388 hard to gain public trust, and to restore After Aleppo: Iran’s Ascendancy and America’s credibility as a superpower too No. 382 Its Implications – which was badly eroded during Obama’s Reassessing American Interests in the presidency. December 22, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Middle East Lerman December 1, 2016 | Prof. Eytan Gilboa The dark strategic implications of the No. 376 Russia and Iran are likely to test Trump’s recent turn of events in Syria. Worse than a Crime: The Folly of Seeking leadership and determination in handling an Imposed Solution to the Israeli- the situation is Syria and Iraq. Palestinian Conflict No. 387 November 8, 2016 | Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Can Trump Construct a New World No. 381 Lerman Order? Trump’s Ambivalence Towards NATO Even the whiff of coercion deludes the December 18, 2016 | Prof. Efraim Inbar Could Backfire Palestinian leadership and feeds their hope Will Russia be ready to end its cozy November 29, 2016 | Dr. Tsilla Hershco that they can avoid the hard decisions that relations with the radical regime in Iran to NATO provides security insurance not are necessary for compromise. become a true US ally in the fight against only to Europe but also to the US. Trump militant Islam? should be cautious about weakening its No. 375 deterrence and power projection. Lessons of the UNESCO Vote No. 386 November 2, 2016 | Maj. Gen. (res.) Chemical Weapons in Syria, Iraq and No. 380 Yaakov Amidror Beyond: Assessment and Implications America and Russia: Towards a New Israelis who cultivate the pipe dream of December 12, 2016 | Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Partnership? substituting Israel’s long-term bond with Dany Shoham November 28, 2016 | Jiri Valenta and the US for an alliance with China and Russia Islamic State and Hezbollah may be Leni Friedman Valenta should take a long, hard look at the votes equipped with CW. Trump will face three urgent foreign policy of Moscow and Beijing at UNESCO, where issues: renegotiating the Iran nuclear they joined in denial of Jewish links to deal with a US-Israel military option and Jerusalem.

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North American address: 5485 Pare St., Montreal Quebec Canada H4P 1P7 TEL: 514-735-1155 FAX: 514-735-3361 Editor David M. Weinberg Coordinator Program Waxman Koen Hava (Hebrew) Production Editor BrinerAlona Rozenman (English) Production Editor Judith Levy Administration Maimon Shany The BESA Center TheBegin-Sadat forCenter Strategic Studies Bar-Ilanat University seeks contribute to theto advancement ofMiddle East peace and security conducting by policy-relevant onresearch strategic subjects, particularly theyas relate the to national security and foreign policy of Israel. Founded Thomas by Hecht, Canadian a O. Jewish community the a non-partisan is Center leader, and the to dedicated institute independent memory of the Israeli late prime minister Menachem Begin and the Egyptian late Sadat.president Anwar Advisory Board International and Founder Ph.D., Hecht O. Thomas Honorary Chairman, Saul Koschitzky, Ms. Moshe Arens, Chairman, Prof. Vice Riva Robert Prof. Hecht, Marion Mr. Hecht, Joel Mr. Hon. Shlomo Hillel, Heft-Hecht, Sen. Levanon, Yitzhak Amb. Koschitzky, Robert K.Joseph I. Lieberman, Mr. Lifton, Rt. Reich, Seymour D. Mr. Hon. Brian Mulroney, Zalman Shoval, Amb. Rosshandler, Greg Mr. Wertheim. Muzi Mr. Norman Spector, Amb. Advisory Board Academic International Ian Beckett, of Northampton, University Prof. SAIS, Johns Hopkins Eliot Cohen, Prof. McGill Irwin Cotler, Prof. University, Johns R. David, Steven Prof. University, Lawrence Prof. Hopkins University, Prof. London, College King’s Freedman, of Southern University James, Patrick Georgetown Robert Lieber, J. Prof. California, University Council Executive Yossi Prof. (Chairman), Fox Jonathan Prof. Eytan Prof. Miriam Faust, Deutsch, Prof. Daniel Prof. Hecht, O. Thomas Gilboa, Dr. Shmuel Prof. Uri Nir, Prof. Hershkowitz, Weiss. Avi Rami Prof. Ginat, Prof. Sandler, Director Center Karsh Efraim Prof. and Bulletin Affairs Director of Public BAR-ILAN UNIVERSITYBAR-ILAN Ramat Gan 52900 Israel TEL. 972-3-531-8959 FAX 972-3-535-9195 [email protected] www.besacenter.org and Dr. Amirand Bar-Or Dr. (l. r.) to Col. (res.) Dr. Lerman,Col. Dr. Benny (res.) Prof. Michaelson, Hanan Shai, Dr. Dr. Eran of Lerman theDr. BESA Eitan Center. (l.) and Shamir Dr. (r.) Prof. EyalProf. Ben-Ari of the Kinneret Academic College with (c.) Col. (res.) Maj. Gen. , Efraim (res.) Prof. Karsh and Martin Prof. Creveld Van (l. r.) to In May, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic for Strategic the Begin-SadatCenter In May, two-day held a broad-ranging Studies with the Kinneret together conference, which Galilee, of the College Academic aspects of the Six Day historical War. considered More than 30 scholars, 30 More military than experts and diplomats delivered wartime papers conflict, the of origin the reassessed the IDF’s that civil-military then), changed since it has performance how (and Israeli and Palestinian American, Syrian, Egyptian, Russian, relations, of social economic and repercussions war, the responses to Arab more. and diplomacy Israel’s pre- and post-war, war, the CONFERENCE Rethinking the War