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Namibia Swaziland COUNTRY REPORT Namibia Swaziland 1st quarter 1997 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 40 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, USA Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 Electronic delivery EIU Electronic New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Moya Veitch Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases CD-ROM Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Knight-Ridder Information World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Inc (USA) Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (USA) SilverPlatter (USA) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 LEXIS-NEXIS (USA) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1997 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1356-4218 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Namibia 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 6 Outlook for 1997-98 9 Review 9 The political scene 11 Economic policy 13 The economy 15 Agriculture and fishing 17 Mining and energy 19 Industry 20 Tourism and transport 21 Foreign trade and payments Swaziland 23 Political structure 24 Economic structure 25 Outlook for 1997-98 26 Review 26 The political scene 29 The economy 33 Foreign trade and payments 35 Quarterly indicators and trade data EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 2 List of tables 8 Namibia: forecast summary 12 Namibia: central government revenue and expenditure 14 Namibia: consumer and food price inflation, 1996 16 Namibia: livestock marketing, 1996 18 Tsumeb metal production and sales, 1996 21 Namibia: Walvis Bay cargo traffic, 1995/96 22 Namibia: foreign reserves, 1996 34 Swaziland: balance-of-payments projections, 1996 35 Namibia: quarterly indicators of economic activity 36 Swaziland: quarterly indicators of economic activity 36 Namibia and Swaziland: UK trade List of figures 9 Namibia: gross domestic product 9 Namibia: real exchange rates 14 Namibia: money supply growth 26 Swaziland: gross domestic product 26 Swaziland: real exchange rates 31 Swaziland: central government operations 33 Swaziland: trade with South Africa EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 3 February 5, 1997 Summary 1st quarter 1997 Namibia Outlook for 1997-98: Swapo appears to be preparing to change the constit- ution so that Mr Nujoma, can stand again for office and avert open warfare between rival party factions. Real growth fell to an estimated 1.5% last year, and with a further deterioration in fishing activities and no conclusive sign of the drought ending, the EIU’s 1997 growth forecast has been adjusted down- wards to 3.5%. The economy is still set to recover quite strongly in 1998, due to higher offshore diamond and uranium output and an expansion in manu- facturing output from new EPZ plants. Exports will increase, but by less than previously forecast, while the improvement in the current-account balance will also be weaker. Review: Mr Nujoma has strongly criticised the local press and proposed its “Namibianisation”. A woman has been appointed as ombudsman; a new pres- idential jet is being acquired and another instance of official corruption has been uncovered. Budget spending has been raised by a net 7% for 1995/96 and GDP contracted by 2% in the second quarter of 1996. The drought shows only some indications of easing, but crop prospects have improved, although the livestock situation remains critical. A zero pilchard catch ceiling has been set for 1997, but new deepsea fish rights are being awarded. Uranium output rose by about 20% last year and economic reserves have been confirmed at the Kudu gas field. Namibian meat exporters face increasing difficulties due to deregulation of the South African market. Swaziland Outlook for 1997-98: Indications are that the opposing positions of the traditionalists and the progressive forces are hardening. The impact of an im- portant report on economic reform might be blunted by the lack of progress on political reform. The stayaway will damage the economy. Progress is expected on the establishment of an investment promotion agency, the restructuring of public enterprises, and the conclusion of a new SACU agreement. Review: The cabinet has been reshuffled and a number of ministries revamped. The resignation of the former minister of finance has been greeted with dismay. The Constitutional Review Commission has still not commenced its work, and a progressive leader has been withdrawn from its membership. Labour’s 27 demands mask the fact that the need for a new political system is at the heart of growing impatience and polarisation in Swazi society. The stayaway call has been mostly adhered to. The draft report on economic reform has been debated. Swaziland is rated the freest economy in sub-Saharan Africa. A supplementary budget has been approved. Economic growth has slowed, and the deficit has widened. Some new investments have been announced. Some regional agree- ments have been signed. Inflation figures are problematic. The prime interest rate has risen. A balance-of-payments surplus has been projected for 1996. Editors: Kristina Quattek; Gill Tudor All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 4 Namibia Namibia Political structure Official name Republic of Namibia Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on 1990 constitution and Roman-Dutch law National legislature Bicameral; National Assembly, with 72 members elected by universal suffrage and serving a five-year term; National Council, established in 1993, with limited powers of review; 26 members, nominated by 13 regional councils for a five-year term National elections December 1994 (legislative and presidential); next elections due by December 1999 (legislative and presidential) Head of state President, elected by universal suffrage for a maximum of two five-year terms National government President and his appointed cabinet; last reshuffle March 1995 Main political parties South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo), the ruling party; DTA of Namibia (formerly Democratic Turnhalle Alliance); United Democratic Front (UDF); South West African National Union (Swanu) The government President Sam Shafiishuna Nujoma Prime minister, in charge of public service personnel Hage Gottfried Geingob Deputy prime minister Hendrik Witbooi Key ministers Agriculture, water & rural development Helmut Angula Basic education & culture John Mutorwa Defence Phillemon Malima Environment & tourism Gerhard “Gert” Hanekom Finance Nangolo Mbumba Fisheries & marine resources Hifikepunye Pohamba Foreign affairs Theo-Ben Gurirab Health & social services Libertina Amathila Home affairs Jerry Ekandjo Information & broadcasting Ben Amathila Justice Ngarikutuke Tjiriange Labour Moses Garoeb Lands & resettlement Pendukeni Ithana Mines & energy Andimba Toivo ya Toivo Prisons & correctional services Marco Hausiko Regional/local government & housing Nicky Iyambo Tertiary education & vocational training Nahas Angula Trade & industry Hidipo Hamutenya Works, transport & communications Oscar “Hampie” Plichta Central bank governor Tom Alweendo EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 Namibia 5 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996a GDP at market pricesb N$ m 7,866 8,353 10,391 11,470 n/a Real GDP growthb % 8.2 –1.9 6.5 4.1 1.5 Consumer price inflationc % 17.7 8.5 10.8 9.9 8.0 Populationd m 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.57 1.62 Exports fob US$ m 1,327 1,279 1,337 1,431 1,450 Imports fob US$ m 1,263 1,212 1,279 1,467 1,550 Current account US$ m 85 121 169 112 50 Total external debte US$ m 291 290 301 315 315f Diamond production ’000 carats 1,549 1,141 1,314 1,382 1,350 Uranium
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