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GIVING UP THE GUN: REBEL TO RULER TRANSFORMATIONS IN AFRICA’S GREAT LAKES REGION By CARA EUGENIA JONES A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2013 1 © 2013 Cara Eugenia Jones 2 To James and Malcolm. Out of the frying pan and into the fire. 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This seven year process would never have gotten to this point without the advice, support, mentorship and love of several people. Although the proverb says “it takes a village to raise a child”, it truly takes a village (or perhaps in my case, a small city) to finish a dissertation. The chair of my committee, Benjamin Smith, deserves more gratitude than I can give. Throughout this process he has been an inspiring mentor, a brilliant teacher, and confidant and friend. Improving my subject-verb agreement, adding to my repertoire of Indonesian recipes, and showing me how to be a good scholar, teacher, and parent all at the same are just a few of the lessons I’ve learned under his tutelage. The rest of my committee, Ken Wald, Dan O’Neil, Leo Villalon, and Abe Goldman also deserve accolades. Ken always had a wise word and funny joke to tell, Dan encouraged me to ‘think outside the box’, Abe provided a voice on Africa and the Great Lakes, and I benefitted from Leo’s tremendous knowledge of political processes and connections across the continent, in addition to him and Fiona’s hospitality many times over. I’ve also benefitted from the work, time, and advice of other scholars in this process: the two “lions” of African Politics at UF, Goran Hyden and Rene Lemarchand influenced me greatly from the beginning of my studies. Will Reno and Zacariah Mampilly read chapters, helped with framing thoughts, and provided hours of entertainment, usually at their own expense. Tim Longman, Marc Sommers, and Peter Uvin generously shared their extensive knowledge of the Great Lakes and helped me to make many connections both before and during fieldwork. The Department of Political Science and the Center for African Studies at the University of Florida provided me 4 tremendous financial support, camaraderie, office space, a place to present new ideas, and supportive colleagues. The United States Department of Education Fulbright-Hays Doctoral Dissertation Research Abroad committee took a chance on a project in a country that had not seen a fellow in decades, for which I am eternally grateful and could not have finished the project without. The University of Rochester generously provided me with a year to complete the majority of the writing, and my colleagues there, especially Bethany Lacina and Adam Cohon gave valuable insight and drafting advice. My colleagues at Grinnell College provided motivation to “finish the job” all while introducing me to life of a faculty member. Jennifer Holmes has been a friend, mentor and inspiration in the discipline and in life upon our first meeting ten years ago. This project was influenced in a thousand ways by the people I lived and worked with in Burundi. Samson Munahi greeted me and taught me about Burundi from my first trip in 2008. Audifax was an inspiration in the field and taught me how to eat urorobe like a Burundian. Jean-Marie Ngendahayo, Aloys Batungwanayo, Johan DeFlanders, and Patrick Hajayandi gave lots of academic and practical advice about research, the topic, and life in Burundi during and after the war. Finally, my anonymous interview subjects, market sellers, bar patrons and students who generously shared their time, their lives, their food and drink, and their spirit with me. While I don’t know that fieldwork changes everyone for the better, it certainly did for me. My colleagues in graduate school, especially the notorious Africanist Mafia, earn special thanks here. Wynie Pankani, Ramon Galinanes and Steve Lichty all began graduate school with me, Ann Wainscott and Nic Knowlton a couple of years later. They have provided companionship, commiseration, and valuable feedback along the way. 5 Kevin Fridy, Aaron Hale, Ashley Leinweber, Steve Marr, and Fredline M’Cormack-Hale were encouraging and helpful, especially with navigating procedures and classes, conferences, and the job market. Steve Marr deserves high praise for creating science with me, sharing internet videos, and all the Hobbit Christmas cards. My family, including my parents, my siblings, and my aunts, uncles, grandparents and cousins all provided spiritual, mental, and sometimes financial support. Without the Beck-Jones Fund for Wayward Scholars, my research would have suffered tremendously. The ability to afford over-priced Nutella in the field is integral to good research. My mother, Mary, has been especially crucial to the process: She is and has always been a teacher, both as a profession and within our family. I have no doubt that it is this legacy that the work embodies. She also generously came to visit us in the field, bringing an extra suitcase of goodies and a bit of home, financed by and carrying the goodwill of my long-suffering father, who not only had to deal with me as a child, but also continues to allow me to kvetch on a weekly basis. The family of my spouse (The Reaves, Prices and Hammetts) also generously accepted me and my desires to take their son to a far-flung corner of the world and miss several holidays. They provided prayer, material support and a place to crash, mentally and physically, when we returned from the field. Finally, I would be remiss if I failed to mention the man behind the curtain. James Reaves has seen this process from idea to print, including the somewhat dubious honor of a year and half in Burundi, followed by a year in Rochester, New York, and all the temperature changes in between. As a spouse, partner, and friend, he never fails to steer me in the right direction, whether it be in regards to my writing or to my choice in 6 music for the car. The work that he has put into this project cannot be measured. It was truly a labor of love for him to accompany me on this adventure, and although at times the results were unexpected, it has never been anything other than extraordinary. Our beautiful son Malcolm Bennett Reaves gestated the same time I wrote and finished the dissertation and provided his very own special form of moral support during the defense. Although I have never been so sleep deprived, I have also never been more proud of all of our achievements this year. It is to James and ‘Baby Bear’ that most of the credit for this work should go. 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... 13 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ 14 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... 15 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 1 GIVING UP THE GUN: REBEL TO RULER TRANSITIONS IN AFRICA’S GREAT LAKES ....................................................................................................... 23 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 23 The State in Africa: Background to Rebellion ......................................................... 34 Why Rebels? .......................................................................................................... 40 The Argument ......................................................................................................... 43 Layout of the research ........................................................................................... 51 Tables and Figures ................................................................................................. 53 Notes ...................................................................................................................... 57 2 A THEORY OF REBEL REGIME SUCCESS ......................................................... 60 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 60 Civil Wars and Rebellions ....................................................................................... 61 Contextualizing Civil Wars in Africa: Marginalization, Greed, And War: Why do they Rebel? ......................................................................................................... 64 Ethnicity and Conflict .............................................................................................. 70 Approaches to Civil Wars ........................................................................................ 75 Quantitative and Qualitative Methodological Tools in the Study of War .................. 78 8 State Formation and Rebel Organization: The Linkages ........................................ 80 Rebellion Outcomes: How do they (or don’t they) Win?.......................................... 82 The Conduct of War: The Contribution to Peacetime Success ............................... 86 Behaviors of Rebel Groups during Negotiated Settlements: The Keys to Success ..............................................................................................................