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ROUGH SEAS AHEAD: NAVIGATING the INEQUALITIES of FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE by Robert Dean Hardy (Under the Direction of Marguerite M

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ROUGH SEAS AHEAD: NAVIGATING the INEQUALITIES of FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE by Robert Dean Hardy (Under the Direction of Marguerite M ROUGH SEAS AHEAD: NAVIGATING THE INEQUALITIES OF FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE by Robert Dean Hardy (Under the Direction of Marguerite Madden) ABSTRACT With anthropogenic climate change poised to accelerate sea-level rise this century, millions of everyday lives and livelihoods are predicted be unevenly vulnerable to this social- ecological change. In this dissertation, I examine both outcome and contextual vulnerability by applying an integrative approach as my research design framework to navigate the problem of inequalities related to future sea-level rise. To apply mixed methods and plural epistemologies that move from the global to the local scale, I examined the inequalities of sea-level rise via three routes: (1) a global scale, quantitative analysis of country responsibility and risk related to multi- millennial sea-level rise; (2) a regional scale, quantitative analysis of spatiotemporal variation in risk to sea-level rise through the year 2050 for coastal Georgia; and (3) a comparative case study of two barrier island communities off the coast of Georgia, Tybee and Sapelo Islands, to show how race shapes vulnerability to sea-level rise. The are three primary findings for this dissertation: (1) our assessment of future populations’ social vulnerability to sea-level rise inundation indicates that the number of people at risk to sea-level rise on Georgia’s coast is more than double previous estimates that were based on 2010 population data; (2) acknowledgement and acceptance – by the professional community working on sea-level rise – of race as a process of enabling or constraining meaningful engagement, rather than as a mere demographic category, will help mitigate vulnerability for underrepresented communities; and (3) investigating the vulnerability to sea-level rise of a culture and/or place through narrative analysis of its stories and histories is strengthened by modeled projections of sea-level rise inundation and population change. INDEX WORDS: Social-ecological vulnerability, Risk, Hazards, Sea-level rise, Climate change, Racism, Racial inequality, GIS, Coastal Georgia, Tybee Island, Sapelo Island ROUGH SEAS AHEAD: NAVIGATING THE INEQUALITIES OF FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE by ROBERT DEAN HARDY B.S. The University of Georgia, 2003 M.S. The University of Georgia, 2009 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTORATE OF PHILOPOSHY ATHENS, GEORGIA 2016 © 2016 Robert Dean Hardy All Rights Reserved ROUGH SEAS AHEAD: NAVIGATING THE INEQUALITIES OF FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE by ROBERT DEAN HARDY Major Professor: Marguerite Madden Committee: J. Peter Brosius Nathan P. Nibbelink Jennifer L. Rice J. Marshall Shepherd Electronic Version Approved: Suzanne Barbour Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia August 2016 DEDICATION I dedicate this dissertation to all of Georgia’s coastal residents, especially those who participated in this project through interviews and conversations, whose futures are uncertain under climate change. I could not have accomplished this project without them having shared their social and environmental knowledge of home with me. Thank you all. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the many people who helped me through the process of conceiving of this dissertation project as well as their guidance in completing it, particularly my PhD committee: Marguerite Madden (chair), Pete Brosius (ICON representative), Jennifer Rice, Nate Nibbelink, and Marshall Shepherd. Each contributed from their respective areas of expertise, and I could not have done it without their support. For those non-committee members, I cannot possibly list them all, but there are a couple of key people who talked me through many of my struggles as well as the theoretical and practical tribulations, in particular, Richard Milligan and Paris Harper. Rick’s and mine’s paths have been aligned for quite some time. We graduated high school together and have come through many years to complete our dissertations at nearly the same time. Rick tirelessly talked me through the philosophical quagmire that results from attempting a truly integrative dissertation project that spans contradictory and often incommensurate worldviews. I cannot express enough gratitude to Rick for his support of and commitment to talking about my research throughout my six years as a PhD student. Thank you, Rick. On the personal side, I could not have accomplished this seemingly enormous endeavor without the unwavering support of my partner, Paris Harper, who for the last four years coped amazingly well with my times of doubt only by offering positive words of encouragement and a nearly unbelievable amount of patience with me. Thank you, Paris, with all my heart. Your equanimity and compassion is unsurpassed by anyone I know. v Others that contributed substantially in conversations (and in no particular order) include Bryan Nuse, Matt Hauer, Levi Van Sant, Richard Vercoe, Nik Heynen, Caitlin Mertzlufft, Jacob Weger, Walker Depuy, Ryan Unks, Rachel Guy, Brian Crawford, Emily Horton, Lowery Parker, Alana Shaw, Jason Evans, Doug Samson, Fred Hay, Amber Huff, Heather Gallivan, Dontrece Smith, Meredith Welch-Devine, Rebeca de Jesus Crespo, and Karen Allen. Thank you to all of you and to the many other fellow students of the Departments of Geography and Anthropology as well as the Schools of Ecology and Forestry and Natural Resources at UGA that engaged with me in conversations (and lively debates) concerning sea-level rise, vulnerability, integrative research, and other related academic and philosophical topics altogether. And last, but not least of the people to acknowledge, I must thank my family for their support throughout the trajectory of my academic education, which to date has amounted to 13 years of postsecondary schooling. Thank you, Mom, Papa, Anthony, and Dawn, for your encouragement and patience and for believing in me. I am (finally!) done. I love you all. I, of course, have to thank my funders, whose support significantly improved the potential of this project. The majority of the research was supported by the National Science Foundation’s Geography and Spatial Sciences Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant (Award #1458978). Other sources of financial and in-kind support that moved the project along came via two Graduate Research Assistantships with the Integrative Conservation PhD Program and the Carl Vinson Institute of Government, two awards from the UGA Graduate School including the Dean’s Award for Social Sciences and the Innovative and Interdisciplinary Research Grant, the UGA Franklin College’s Center for Research and Engagement in Diversity, and finally, the UGA Center for Geospatial Research. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... x LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................... 1 Purpose of the Study and Major Findings ................................................................ 2 Study Site ............................................................................................................... 5 Methods and Objectives .......................................................................................... 6 Theoretical Framework ........................................................................................... 9 Chapter Summaries ............................................................................................... 10 Literature Review ................................................................................................. 13 2 GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE: WEIGHING COUNTRY RESPONSIBILITY AND RISK .............................................................................. 32 Abstract ................................................................................................................ 33 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 33 Methods ................................................................................................................ 36 Results and Analysis ............................................................................................. 40 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 44 vii 3 SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION IN RISK TO SEA-LEVEL RISE: A CASE STUDY OF COASTAL GEORGIA .......................................................... 53 Abstract ................................................................................................................ 54 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 54 Vulnerability to Hazards ....................................................................................... 58 Methods ................................................................................................................ 59 Results .................................................................................................................. 68 Discussion and Conclusion ..................................................................................
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