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Rethinking the Growth Mantra: an Exploration of The Rethinking the Growth Mantra: An Exploration of the Post-Normal World of Declining Conventional Fossil Energy by Terrance Leonard Berg B.Ed., University of Alberta, 1980 B.Sc., University of Alberta, 1982 M.Ed., University of Alberta, 1989 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Doctor of Philosophy in The Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies (Curriculum Studies) The University of British Columbia (Vancouver) April 2017 © Terrance Leonard Berg, 2017 Abstract This dissertation represents a meta-survey of evidence projecting a future of conventional fossil energy decline, and the rapid disappearance of highest quality conventional energy sources. Evidence also suggest that increasing costs of fossil fuel production and declining energetic quality of replacements, point to a growing uneconomic cost of fossil fuel consumption. This indicates the need to challenge the benefits of continued fossil fuel consumption due to the growing devastation on humanity associated with accelerating global climate disruption. Resistance to transitioning away from fossil fuel consumption is documented, with major corporations continuing to promote continued fossil energy consumption using multiple think tanks and political agencies. This dissertation supports the findings of the original 1973 Limits to Growth models projecting an end to the modern “Business as Usual” (BAU) industrial age civilization from two aspects: growing resource depletion, and the expected decline of industrial and services per capita. Evidence indicates that dedicated efforts to continue BAU fossil fuel consumption could end in the collapse of energetic structures essential to industrial civilization, leaving humanity in an energy impoverished position struggling to adapt to increasing global climate disruption. This evidence suggests that the education and knowledge developed in a civilization, where nearly everything created in past generations of increasing fossil fuel consumption risks redundancy in a new ontological world of learning to live with declining per capita energy. This transdisciplinary dissertation surveying these emerging trends in petroleum geology, energy related economics and climate science, collectively dictate that a post-carbon future and the changes that accompany it is one that educators must not ignore. ii Preface This dissertation is the original, unpublished, independent survey of research created by the author Terrance Berg. There are significant numbers of works from other researchers both summarized and presented in this meta-analysis. iii Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... ii Preface .......................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... xi List of Equations ........................................................................................................................... x List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................. xiii Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... xx Dedication .................................................................................................................................. xxi Chapter One: Introduction: Industrial Civilization’s Energy Descent Future ...................... 1 Researcher Positionality ........................................................................................................... 5 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 6 Dissertation Overview .............................................................................................................. 9 Chapter Two: Fossil Energy Production: Models and Risks .................................................. 16 The End of Growth and Emerging Post-Normal Future .......................................................... 19 Thomas Malthus ..................................................................................................................... 20 Limits to Growth ..................................................................................................................... 22 Physical Energetic Limits to Growth ...................................................................................... 25 Hubbert Peak Theory .............................................................................................................. 27 The Capital-Resource, Predator-Prey Model .......................................................................... 31 Complex Models ..................................................................................................................... 33 Wicked Problems .................................................................................................................... 34 Black Swan Events ................................................................................................................. 35 iv Post Normality ........................................................................................................................ 36 Chapter Three: Fossil Energy Metrics: Understanding the Conversation ............................ 39 A Cubic Mile of Oil ................................................................................................................. 40 EROIE and Net Energy Metrics .............................................................................................. 43 Oil and Natural Gas Supply and Reserves ............................................................................... 51 Unconventional Liquid Fossil Fuels ....................................................................................... 57 EIA Recognition of Peak Conventional Liquids ..................................................................... 63 Conventional and Unconventional Natural Gas ...................................................................... 65 Clathrates, Methane Gas Hydrates .......................................................................................... 68 Coal Reserves ......................................................................................................................... 69 Uranium Reserves ................................................................................................................... 71 The End of Conventional Fossil Fuels .................................................................................... 73 Chapter Four: Fossil Energy Consumption: The Cost of Negative Externalities ................. 75 Anthropocene ......................................................................................................................... 77 IPCC Future Scenarios ............................................................................................................ 87 IPCC AR5 Projected Temperature Increase ............................................................................ 89 IPCC AR5 Projected Precipitation Change ............................................................................. 90 IPCC AR5 Projected Sea Level Increase ................................................................................ 93 Paleoclimatic Concerns about the 2°C Limit .......................................................................... 94 Concerns over IPCC Synthesis & Summary Reports .............................................................. 97 Human Carbon Budget and the 2°C Target ............................................................................. 99 The Emissions Gap ............................................................................................................... 102 Conference of Parties (COP) ................................................................................................. 103 v COP21 .................................................................................................................................. 104 1.5°C to Stay Alive ............................................................................................................... 106 Cap and Trade ....................................................................................................................... 110 Carbon Tax ........................................................................................................................... 111 Stranded Fossil Energy Assets .............................................................................................. 113 Chapter Five: Fossil Energy: Economic Factors .................................................................... 118 Conventional Energy Descent: Impacts and Concerns .......................................................... 122 Economic Links to Energy .................................................................................................... 124 Historical Oil Shocks ...........................................................................................................
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