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Development and Applications of Environmental Ia Modelling of Climate Change Facultad de Economía y Empresa Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY A thesis submitted by IÑIGO CAPELLÁN PÉREZ for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics in the University of the Basque Country (Spain) Bilbao, June 2016 (cc)2016 IÑIGO CAPELLAN PEREZ (cc by-nc-sa 4.0) Facultad de Economía y Empresa Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY A thesis submitted by IÑIGO CAPELLÁN PÉREZ for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics in the University of the Basque Country (Spain) Bilbao, June 2016 Supervised by: ALBERTO ANSUATEGI COBO (University of the Basque Country) & MIKEL GONZÁLEZ EGUINO (Basque Centre for Climate Change) Publications based on this PhD thesis Peer-reviewed journal publications Mediavilla, Margarita, Carlos de Castro, Iñigo Capellán, Luis Javier Miguel, Iñaki Arto, and Fernando Frechoso. “The Transition towards Renewable Energies: Physical Limits and Temporal Conditions.” Energy Policy 52 (January 2013): 297–311. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.033. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Margarita Mediavilla, Carlos de Castro, Óscar Carpintero, and Luis Javier Miguel. “Fossil Fuel Depletion and Socio-Economic Scenarios: An Integrated Approach.” Energy 77 (December 2014): 641–66. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.09.063. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Margarita Mediavilla, Carlos de Castro, Óscar Carpintero, and Luis Javier Miguel. “More Growth? An Unfeasible Option to Overcome Critical Energy Constraints and Climate Change.” Sustainability Science, April 25, 2015, 1–15. doi:10.1007/s11625-015-0299-3. Submitted journal publications Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Iñaki Arto, Josué Polanco-Martínez, Mikel González-Eguino, and Marc B. Neumann. “Likelihood of Climate Change Pathways under Uncertainty on Fossil Fuel Resources Availability.” Submitted, 2016. González-Eguino, Mikel, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, Iñaki Arto, Alberto Ansuategi, and Anil Markandya. “Industrial and Terrestrial Carbon Leakage under Climate Policy Fragmentation.” Submitted, 2016. Conference presentations Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo. “The transition towards renewable energies: physical limits and temporal conditions”, Klimagune 2013 “Opportunities, Challenges and Barriers for Transitions Towards Sustainability in the Context of Climate Change” (December 2013). Bilbao, Spain. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Margarita Mediavilla, Carlos de Castro, Óscar Carpintero, and Luis Javier Miguel. “Exploring a global a-growth pathway from the energy perspective”, 11th International Conference of the European Society of Ecological Economics (Leeds, UK). 30th June – 3rd July 2015. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Iñaki Arto, Josué Polanco-Martínez, Mikel González-Eguino, and Marc B. Neumann. “Probabilistic CO2 emission scenarios under fossil energy resource depletion”, 11th International Conference of the European Society of Ecological Economics (Leeds, UK). 30th June – 3rd July 2015. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Iñaki Arto, Josué Polanco-Martínez, Mikel González-Eguino, and Marc B. Neumann. “Implications of the uncertainty of energy resources on CO2 emission pathways”, JGCRI Annual Integrated Assessment Meeting and GCAM Workshop (College Park, Maryland, USA). 1-4 December 2015. Book chapters Kerschner, Christian, and Iñigo Capellán-Pérez. “Peak-Oil and Ecological Economics.” In Handbook of Ecological Economics: Nature and Society, edited by Clive L. Spash, Routledge., 2016. Working papers Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Mikel González-Eguino, Iñaki Arto, Alberto Ansuategi, Kishore Dhavala, Pralit Patel, and Anil Markandya. “New Climate Scenario Framework Implementation in the GCAM Integrated Assessment Model.” BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change, August 27, 2014. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Margarita Mediavilla, Carlos de Castro, and Luis Javier Miguel. “World Limits Model (WoLiM) 1.0 - Model Documentation. Technical Report.” Spain: Energy, Economy and System Dynamics Group of the University of Valladolid, May 2014. Other publications Arto, Iñaki, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, Rosa Lago, and Gorka Bueno. “The Energy Footprint of Human Development.” XIV JORNADAS DE ECONOMÍA CRÍTICA 157.88.26.18/jec14/comunica/A_EEMA/A_EEMA_6.pdf (5/09 2014). Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo, Alberto Ansuategi and Ibon Galarraga. “European Biofuels Policy and Its Contribution to a Low Carbon Future.” BC3 Policy Briefings, no. 2015/07 (2015). Arto, Iñaki, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, Rosa Lago, Gorka Bueno, and Roberto Bermejo. “The Energy Requirements of a Developed World.” Energy for Sustainable Development. Forthcoming (2016). Dissemination talks Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo. “Implicaciones de la transición hacia una economía baja en carbono a través de un modelo de Análisis Integrado” (University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain). 21 June 2013. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo. “Energía y Desarrollo (II)”, II Curso de Economía Ecológica (University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain). 27-30 October 2014. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo. “Límites energéticos globales”, curso de verano “Transporte Sostenible: Perspectivas y Retos” (Universidad de Valladolid, Spain). 10 November 2014. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo. “Energía y Desarrollo”, III Curso de Economía Ecológica (University of the Basque Country, Bilbao, Spain). 26-29 October 2014. Acknowledgements Esta tesis doctoral es fruto de la peculiar interacción entre esfuerzo individual y trabajo colectivo; con diferentes personas y desde distintos lugares. Intentar separar uno del otro es entrar en territorio brumoso pues en realidad, ambos se realimentan. Es por ello que me gustaría agradecer: A mis supervisores Alberto y Mikel, por confiar en mis posibilidades; y especialmente, sus consejos, flexibilidad, ayuda y disponibilidad para llevar esta aventura a buen puerto. A la buena gente del BC3 con la que he compartido buena investigación y buenos momentos. Especialmente a Iñaki, con su curiosidad, entusiasmo contagioso y disponibilidad inagotable para embarcarse en proyectos conjuntos; y a Marc, del que he aprendido, además de cómo hacer análisis de incertidumbre, que siempre se puede releer y mejorar un artículo una vez más. A Marga, Carlos, Epi y Óscar particularmente, y a todo el Grupo de Energía, Economía y Dinámica de Sistemas de la Universidad de Valladolid en general, que me inocularon el virus de la investigación sobre la sostenibilidad hace ya 6 años, y del que de momento no hay signos perceptibles de curación. I would also like to gratefully thank Pralit, for his time, patience and support to run the GCAM model. Naturalmente, no puedo olvidarme de mi familia y mis amigos; sin los que este proyecto no habría sido posible y habría, sencillamente, carecido de sentido. I hvala tebi puno, puno; magijsko kruženje karata. Abstract The scale of human activities has reached globally such a size that is increasingly affecting the regular functioning of the Biosphere and critically threatening its equilibrium: during the last few decades, human actions have become the main driver of global environmental change. The design of effective policies to rectify current trends critically depends on our ability to understand the complex interactions between the environment and the society. In this context, Environmental Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) constitute a powerful tool integrating multiple disciplines and dimensions to shed light on potential sustainability pathways. In particular, IAMs of Climate Change are considered one of the best tools for the implicit evaluation of the planetary and social boundaries. This PhD thesis aims at developing and applying these tools to investigate the risks and opportunities of potential sustainable pathways, and to gain a better understanding of how a transition to a low carbon economy can be achieved. The field of IA Modelling of Climate Change is reviewed, assessing its past evolution and providing a thorough classification of the existing IAMs along seven axes that illustrates the diversity of modelling approaches and assumptions: policy-evaluation vs. policy-optimization; top-down vs. bottom-up; highly-aggregated vs. higher-resolution; regarding the level of integration among subsystems; deterministic vs. stochastic, equilibrium vs. disequilibrium and standard vs. biophysical economics models. Recent developments of the field are being directed towards increasing the interactions within the represented subsystems, as well as expanding the models to represent other Biosphere processes. Yet, many uncertainties and some controversy about the usefulness of these models exist in the scientific discussion. Two modelling frameworks have been applied in this thesis: a state–of-the-art model (GCAM) and a new biophysical model (WoLiM). On the one hand, GCAM is a high resolution bottom-up IAM model that has been applied to produce emissions scenarios in all the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to date. On the other hand, WoLiM takes a biophysical approach focusing on basic thermodynamic principles to analyze the economic process, inheriting from the Complex Systems that concentrate on the dynamic interrelation between its elements. Both models have not only different structures, but also different aims. This diversity has allowed us approaching a variety of issues, as well as exploring the same issue from different perspectives. Both models have been applied to shed light on two current debates in the literature: (1) the implications of the uncertainty of fossil fuel resources
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